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Over the past week, two ads have blanketed the television airwaves, introducing Americans to Democrats newest presidential candidate, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. From Saturday, November 23 through Sunday, December 1, those ads aired 19,006 times for an estimated $23.7 million, according to data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group.

During that same time frame, all the other Democratic presidential candidates ads aired a combined 10,337 times, costing an estimated $7.6 million. In fact, in just over a week, Bloomberg spent more than one-third of what the rest of the Democratic field has spent all year long. Only fellow billionaire-turned-candidate Tom Steyer has spent more than Bloomberg.

Eye-popping though it was, Bloombergs ad buy still fell well short of constituting the biggest weeklong TV ad buy in the history of presidential campaigns. According to CMAG, that record still belongs to Hillary Clinton, who aired 52,997 spots for an estimated $33.7 million (in 2016 dollars today that would be about $36 million) in the final week of the 2016 campaign. Bloomberg also doesnt even crack the top 10 in terms of most ad airings by a candidate in a single week. Then-President Barack Obama alone had eight weeks in the 2012 cycle when his ads ran at least 26,000 times.

That said, Bloombergs buy still represents the most prolific week of political television advertising so far in the 2020 cycle. And according to CMAG, it probably is the most money any candidate has ever spent on TV in a single week in a primary election. Simply put, we have no idea how Bloombergs spending will affect the primary because we have no precedent for it.

Also unusual is where Bloomberg is airing his ads. In keeping with his plan not to contest the first four states on the primary calendar, hes only aired 151 spots so far in media markets based in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina. Instead, his ads have aired most often in Florida (1,796 times), California (1,753 times) and Texas (1,326 times). It is probably not a coincidence that those are also the three most delegate-rich states with March primaries. In case it wasnt already clear, it looks like Bloombergs plan is to dwarf other candidates early-state delegate hauls by doing well on Super Tuesday and beyond.

Its worth remembering, however, that presidential campaigns arent decided, or even predominantly waged, on TV. Political scientists who have studied the question have found that television advertising has only modest effects on peoples vote choice. Heavy campaign spending also yields diminishing returns; Bloomberg may rise, say, 5 points in the polls after last week, but if he spent another $23.7 million next week, it might not buy him another 5 points, as his ads may have reached everyone they are going to reach (and voters who saw them but still dont support Bloomberg may be hard to pry away from their current candidate choice). Finally, researchers have persistently found that the effect of political TV advertising is short-lived so any polling bump Bloomberg gets today may not matter if it doesnt survive until the primaries. Perhaps the real question is whether Bloomberg is planning on, or is even capable of, sustaining this level of spending for the next three months. Keep an eye on our TV ad tracker to find out.

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Michael Bloomberg Outspent The Entire Democratic Field In TV Ads Last Week - FiveThirtyEight

A month after ending his presidential campaign, Democrat Beto ORourke has turned his attention to state politics namely, an effort to help flip the Texas House of Representatives from Republican control to the Democrats.

With Texas Democrats nine seats away from retaking the majority of seats in the Texas House, ORourke is trying to convince his donor base to send money to an organization called Flip The Texas House, which has targeted 17 House Districts in which Republican candidates won by fewer than 10 percentage points last year. More than half are districts in which ORourke won the majority of votes as he ran for U.S. Senate.

In 2018, I carried nine of the 17 districts now represented by Republicans. So we know that we can do this, ORourke said in the email. We just need your help to make sure that we make the most of this opportunity.

For subscribers: Houston gets hotter in 2020 with up to 11 competitive Texas House races

Ten of the targeted districts are in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and five are in and around Houston. One is in San Antonio and one is in Killeen.

The push follows a 2018 cycle in which Democrats flipped 12 Texas House seats from Republican control. Texas Democrats have not had the majority of seats in the Texas House since 2001.

ORourke, a former congressman from El Paso, said if Democrats retake the majority in the Texas House, it would mean an end to racist gerrymandering, and a chance to address gun violence, reproductive rights, Medicaid expansion, criminal justice and climate change in Texas.

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Targeted Districts

Nine State House Districts held by Republicans where Beto ORourke won in 2018.

Houston area:

HD 138 - Dwyane Bohac (not seeking re-election)

HD 134 - Sarah Davis

HD 26 - Rick Miller

San Antonio area

HD 121 - Steve Allison

Dallas-Fort Worth area

HD 64 - Lynn Stucky

HD 66 - Matt Shaheen

HD 67 - Jeff Leach

HD 112 - Angie Chen Button

HD 108 - Morgan Meyer

When the Legislature next meets in regular session 2021, it will take up redistricting, the process by which every congressional district and every state legislative district is redrawn to account for population shifts.

In his 2018 campaign, ORourke was a fundraising powerhouse, raising almost $79 million, more than any Congressional candidate in the nation. ORourke lost his race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz but came within 2.6 percent of winning the closest a Democrat has come to winning a statewide office in Texas since the 1990s.

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Democrat Beto ORourke turns his attention to flipping the Texas House - Houston Chronicle

Theres a pervasive sense of legislative paralysis gripping Capitol Hill. And its been there long before the impeachment inquiry began.

For months, President Donald Trump has fired off tweet missives accusing House Democrats of getting nothing done in Congress, and being consumed with impeachment.

Trump may want to look to the Republican-controlled Senate instead. Democrats in the House have been passing bills at a rapid clip; as of November 15, the House has passed nearly 400 bills, not including resolutions. But the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee estimates 80 percent of those bill have hit a snag in the Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is prioritizing confirming judges over passing bills.

Congress has passed just 70 bills into law this year. Granted, it still has one more year in its term, but the number pales in comparison to recent past sessions of Congress, which typically see 300-500 bills passed in two years (and that is even a diminished number from the 700-800 bills passed in the 1970s and 1980s).

Ten of those 70 bills this year have been renaming federal post offices or Veterans Affairs facilities, and many others are related to appropriations or extending programs like the National Flood Insurance Program or the 9/11 victim compensation fund.

This has led to House Democrats decrying McConnells so-called legislative graveyard, a moniker the Senate majority leader has proudly adopted. McConnell calls himself the grim reaper of Democratic legislation he derides as socialist, but many of the bills that never see the Senate floor are bipartisan issues, like a universal background check bill, net neutrality, and reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act.

From raising the minimum wage to ensuring equal pay, we have passed legislation to raise wages. And we have passed legislation to protect and expand health coverage and bring down prescription drug prices, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said in a statement to Vox. We continue to urge Senator McConnell to take up our bills, many of which are bipartisan.

McConnell is focused on transforming the federal judiciary instead, with the Senate confirming over 150 of Trumps nominees to the federal bench. And he has refused to bring Democratic bills to the Senate floor in part to protect vulnerable Republican senators from having to take tough votes that could divide the GOP ahead of the 2020 election. Still, some Senate Republicans fear inaction could make them just as vulnerable.

Im very eager to turn from nominations to legislation, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) recently told the New York Timess Carl Hulse. There are important issues that are pending, and I think we could produce some terrific bills that would be signed into law.

Lately, Republicans and Trump are accusing Democrats of single-mindedly pursuing impeachment at the detriment of passing bills.

Again, the more accurate picture is that Democrats have been passing a lot of bills in addition to investigating the president. But split control of government and Trumps fury at being investigated by Democratic committees paralyzed Washingtons legislative functions well before impeachment proceedings began in the fall.

Back in May, Trump was blasting Democrats for not making enough progress on infrastructure, health care, and veterans issues. His complaints intensified after an explosive White House meeting on infrastructure between Trump and Democrats the day before, which the president walked out of.

Their heart is not into Infrastructure, lower drug prices, pre-existing conditions and our great Vets, Trump tweeted. All they are geared up to do, six committees, is squander time, day after day, trying to find anything which will be bad for me.

Months later, the presidents complaints remain the same. He recently tweeted, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, AOC and the rest of the Democrats are not getting important legislation done, hence, the Do Nothing Democrats.

Trump isnt the only one with a perception that very little is happening in Congress. Congresss approval rating is a dismal 24 percent, with 72 percent disapproval, according to Gallup.

During the Republican-controlled Congress in 2017 and 2018, the two major legislative accomplishments of McConnell, Trump, and House Speaker Paul Ryan were a massive GOP tax cut and a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill in 2018. The very end of Ryans time as speaker also saw Trump drive a government shutdown that continued into Pelosis tenure in 2019.

Since Democrats took control of the House, the few things theyve been able to agree with Senate Republicans on include a bill to reopen the federal government after a three-week shutdown, a resolution to end US involvement in the war in Yemen (which was vetoed by Trump), and a disaster aid agreement. But other big-ticket items Democrats hoped to achieve, like an infrastructure package and a prescription drug bill, have yet to be passed.

As we near the end of the year, much of the media focus will continue to be on impeachment. House Democrats will also be focused on a vote on a major bill to lower prescription drug costs (something Trump has said is a priority for him), the Voting Rights Advancement Act, and the National Defense Authorization Act.

Just because impeachment is the main story in Washington doesnt mean policy work isnt happening. It just means it isnt getting talked about as much, and that the president a figure who could apply pressure on McConnell to take up some of the bipartisan legislation currently gathering dust has other priorities.

Given the Senate could soon be consumed by an impeachment trial, the remaining weeks of 2019 could be the final opportunity for lawmakers in the upper chamber to advance legislation. However, there are no signals that Republican Senate leaders will seize that opportunity.

House Democrats have passed a wide range of bills since they came to power in January, ranging from a sweeping anti-corruption and pro-democracy reform known as H.R.1, to bills to save net neutrality, pass universal background checks for guns, and reenter the United States into the Paris climate accords.

They have also put a large emphasis on health care, a defining issue of the 2018 election after Trump and Senate Republicans attempted to pass a bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Democrats have focused on bills to lower prescription drug costs, protect preexisting conditions, and condemning the Trump administrations legal battle to strike down the ACA in the courts. And although Medicare-for-all is driving the conversation in the 2020 presidential primary, it has not gotten a vote in the House.

Much of this agenda is sitting in the Senate. There have been a few things House Democrats and Senate Republicans have agreed on: disaster relief aid, reopening the government after the shutdown, the resolution to end US involvement in the Yemen war, a bill to protect public lands, and a resolution disapproving of Trumps use of emergency powers.

But on major policy issues like health care and infrastructure, or even bipartisan ones like net neutrality, the Equal Pay Act, or even a simple reauthorization of the longstanding Violence Against Women Act Democrats bills are continuing to languish in the Senate. House Democrats are expecting to take up House Resolution 3, a major health care bill to lower the cost of prescription drugs, before the Christmas break. Although were not going to list all 400 bills for brevitys sake, heres a list of major bills and resolutions the House has passed so far.

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House Democrats have passed hundreds of bills. Trump and Republicans are ignoring them - Vox.com

WASHINGTON (AP) Democrats spent more time making the case for their ability to beat President Donald Trump than trying to defeat each other in their fifth debate.

Civil in tone, mostly cautious in approach, the forum on Wednesday did little to reorder the field and may have given encouragement to two new entrants into the race, Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick.

Key takeaways:

IMPEACHMENT CLOUD HOVERS

The impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump took up much of the oxygen early in the debate.

The questions about impeachment did little to create much separation in a field that universally condemns the Republican president.

The candidates tried mightily to pivot to their agenda. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren talked about how a major Trump donor became the ambassador at the heart of the Ukraine scandal and reiterated her vow to not award ambassadorships to donors. Former Vice President Joe Biden tried to tout the investigation as a measure of how much Trump fears his candidacy.

Impeachment is potentially perilous to the Democratic candidates for two reasons. A Senate trial may trap a good chunk of the field in Washington just as early states vote in February. It also highlights a challenge for Democrats since Trump entered the presidential race in 2015 shifting the conversation from Trumps serial controversies to their own agenda.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders warned, We cannot simply be consumed by Donald Trump, because if you are youre going to lose the election.

___

OBAMA COALITION

Perhaps more than in any debate so far, Democrats explicitly acknowledged the importance of black and other minority voters.

California Sen. Kamala Harris said repeatedly that Democrats must reassemble the Obama coalition to defeat Trump. Harris, one of three black candidates running for the nomination, highlighted black women especially, arguing that her experiences make her an ideal nominee.

Another black candidate, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, added: Ive had a lot of experience with black voters. ... Ive been one since I was 18.

Neither Booker nor Harris, though, has been able to parlay life experiences into strong support in the primary, in no small part because of Bidens strong standing in the black community.

Bidens standing also is a barrier to other white candidates, including South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is surging in overwhelmingly white Iowa but struggling badly with black voters in Southern states like South Carolina that have proven critical to previous Democratic nominees.

Buttigieg acknowledged as much, saying he welcomes the challenge of connecting with black voters in America who dont yet know me.

The exchanges show that candidates seemingly accept the proposition that the eventual nominee will have to put together a racially diverse coalition to win, and that those whose bases remain overwhelmingly white (or just too small altogether) arent likely to be the nominee.

___

CLIMATE CRISIS GETS AIR

The climate crisis, which Democratic voters cite as a top concern, finally gained at least some attention.

There were flashes of the debate Wednesday night, as billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer swiped at Biden by suggesting the former vice president wants an inadequate, piecemeal approach to the crisis. Biden hit right back, reminding Steyer that he sponsored climate legislation as a senator in the 1980s while Steyer built his fortune in part on investments in coal.

Buttigieg turned a question about the effects of Trumps policies on farmers into a call for the U.S. agriculture sector to become a key piece of an emissions-free economy.

But those details seem less important than the overall exchange or lack thereof. Perhaps its the complexities of the policies involved. Or perhaps its just the politics. Whatever the case, the remaining field simply doesnt seem comfortable or willing to push climate policy to the forefront, and debate moderators dont either.

___

HEALTH CARE GROUNDHOG DAY

Before every debate, Democratic presidential campaigns aides lay out nuanced, focused arguments their candidates surely will make on the stage. And every debate seems to evolve quickly into an argument over health care.

So it was again. Within minutes of the start, Warren found herself on the defensive as she explained she still supports a single-payer government run insurance system Medicare for All despite her recent modified proposal to get there in phases. Not to be outdone, Sanders reminded people that hes the original Senate sponsor of the Medicare for All bill that animates progressives. I wrote the damn bill, he quipped. Again.

Biden jumped in to remind his more liberal rivals that their ideas would not pass in Congress. The former vice president touted his commitment to adding a government insurance plan to existing Affordable Care Act exchanges that now sell private insurance policies.

The debate highlights a fundamental tension for candidates: Democratic voters identify health care as their top domestic policy concern, but they also tell pollsters their top political priority in the primary campaign is finding a nominee who can defeat Trump.

The top contenders did nothing to settle the argument Wednesday, instead offering evidence that the ideological tug-of-war will remain until someone wins enough delegates to claim the nomination.

___

DID YOU HEAR THE ONE ...

The debate was so genial that some of the most memorable moments were the candidates well-rehearsed jokes.

Asked what hed say to Russian President Vladimir Putin if hes elected to the White House, technology entrepreneur Andrew Yang said his first words would be, Sorry I beat your guy.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar drew laughs for an often-repeated anecdote about how she set a record by raising $17,000 from ex-boyfriends during her first campaign. She also pushed back at fears of a female candidacy by saying, If you think a woman cant beat Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi does it every day.

Booker, criticizing Biden for not agreeing to legalize marijuana, said, I thought you might have been high when you said it.

And Harris may have issued the zinger of the night at the president when discussing his nuclear negotiations with North Korea: Donald Trump got punked.

___

GABBARD AS GADFLY

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has carved out a distinctive role during the Democratic debates reliable gadfly.

On Wednesday she kept sniping at her own party, standing by her comments last month that its last presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, is the personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long.

Asked to elaborate, Gabbard said Democrats are no longer the party that is of, by and for the people, it is a party that continues to be influenced by the foreign policy establishment in Washington, by the military-industrial complex.

Gabbards fondness for slamming Democrats has led some in the party to fear shes laying the groundwork for a third-party run, something the congresswoman denies. Her criticism Wednesday drew a sharp riposte from Harris, who said Gabbard had been on Fox News full-time during President Barack Obamas administration and noting she met with Trump after the presidents election.

Gabbard dismissively replied that Harris response only makes me guess that she as president will continue the status quo. She later tangled with Buttigieg, contending he had supported sending U.S. troops to Mexico, a charge that reduced him to disbelieving chuckles.

Gabbard made the stage due to the burst of attention she got after getting into her fight with Clinton. Wednesdays exchange showed how she can easily stay before the cameras while criticizing her own party.

The Trump campaign was quick to embrace the fight, tweeting out Gabbards slamming of her party.

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Catch up on the 2020 election campaign with AP experts on our weekly politics podcast, Ground Game.

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Takeaways from the 5th Democratic 2020 presidential debate - Associated Press

His main priority is voting for the person whos going to get more done thats why he stuck with the Democrats in the midterms but at the national level, he said, the Democrats have disappointed him on that front.

If youre going to Washington, you need to do something, he said. If the only thing youre going to do the whole time youre there is try to get rid of the president, thats a problem. I mean, Trump is not a great person, but youve got to get some work done.

Other voters say they are preparing to take an even greater leap: vote for Mr. Trump after supporting Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

In the survey, 7 percent of those who supported Mrs. Clinton in 2016 said they now approved of the presidents performance despite his personality and his Twitter account, many said.

In 2016, I hated both candidates, said Juli Anna California, 57, a nurse from Coral Springs, Fla. I went with Hillary because Trump had no history as a politician.

Mr. Trump has convinced her, though not with his character, but with his policies.

Hes not exactly the person Id have as my best friend, said Ms. California, who currently lives in Los Angeles as a traveling nurse. But hes a great president. Most politicians just talk about doing things, but Trump does them.

Scott Will, 51, an equipment operator in Ligonier, Pa., also voted for Mrs. Clinton in 2016, and will vote for Mr. Trump next year. So will much of his family, union workers who had been die-hard Democrats. Mr. Will, who started college but left to get married before graduating, credits Mr. Trumps trade deals and pledge to bring jobs back to the United States.

Continued here:
They Voted Democratic. Now They Support Trump. - The New York Times