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Here are some thoughts on todays three-week deal in Congress to reopen the government, take a vote on an unspecified immigration bill, and fund the Childrens Health Insurance Program for six years:

1) Theres a rollicking debate on Twitter over whether Democrats caved. Ill confess that Im mystified by this argument. For the moment, this seems like a good deal but its impossible to say anything definitive without knowing what happens over the next three weeks.

2) Consider what we dont know about what comes next. We dont know which immigration bill, or bills, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will bring to the Senate floor. We dont know if any immigration compromise passes the Senate. We dont know if an immigration bill that passes the Senate will get a vote in the House. Even if it does get a vote in the House, we dont know if itll pass. And if it does pass, we dont know if Trump will sign it.

3) We also dont know what the implicit Democratic position is here. If Democrats get a fair vote in the House and Senate on an immigration deal and it doesnt pass, will they shut down the government again in three weeks? Put differently, is this a deal about a fair process or about a particular outcome? If Democrats dont get a deal and they shut the government back down in three weeks, its hard to see what was lost here.

4) Democratic opponents of the deal believe that an extended shutdown increases the likelihood of a DREAMer compromise. But does it? That is to say that an extended shutdown will cause Trump so much political or personal pain that he will accept one of the immigration compromises he has thus far rejected. Neither dynamic is obvious to me.

5) Politically, Trumps entire brand is anti-immigration politics, and if there is round-the-clock news coverage of a shutdown over immigration, hell think its good for his base. Personally, Trumps goal in life is to be seen as a winner, and to double down when attacked or under pressure, and so its hard to see how a high-stakes battle over a shutdown which would make a deal on immigration look like a cave to reopen the government by Trump helps.

6) Beyond that, shutting down the government should be a last resort in the most extreme situations (if that). And historically, shutting down the government usually doesnt end with the party that forced the shutdown getting the policy concessions it wants it often strengthens the presidents party. To the extent theres an open path in which an immigration deal can be negotiated and brought to a vote with the government still open, thats a good thing.

7) One counterargument: McConnells word hasnt been worth much this year. Just ask Sens. Susan Collins (ME) and Jeff Flake (AZ), fellow Republicans who were promised health and immigration policies in return for their tax votes. In this case, though, if McConnell reneges on the deal, Democrats simply shut down the government in three weeks. They havent lost that leverage.

8) And if Democrats do need to shut down the government in three weeks, theyll do so with the Childrens Health Insurance Program funded for six years, rather than seeing it weaponized against them. Thats a big deal, both substantively and politically.

9) Theres a broader political dynamic worth considering here too. Republicans pioneered a brand of politics in which creating crises in government operations became proof of sincerity, regardless of whether it led to good outcomes or who got hurt along the way. If you didnt employ every tactic in service of your promises to the base, you were a liar it wasnt acceptable to say, We dont have the votes; we need to win more elections.

10) At the time, Democrats angrily criticized that approach, arguing that all-out tactical war would be terrible for the country, that some boundaries and norms were worth preserving, that elections were the proper method of resolution. Now Im hearing a lot of the same arguments from Democrats: If they dont shut the government down, or keep it shut down, it will be a betrayal of their base.

11) Democrats also feel, understandably, that they cant unilaterally disarm. If Republicans are going to use the basic functioning of the government as leverage, then Democrats have to do so too.

12) The logic of that is inarguable, and the consequences disastrous. If hostage-taking becomes normalized in American politics, then theres really no end to the cycle of escalation, and its going to finish with a global economic crisis because we breached the debt ceiling, or worse.

13) The central political problem in American life, for years now, has been that the Republican Party is a dysfunctional institution that has abandoned principles of decent governance in order to please an ever more extreme base. I dont have an answer for fixing that. But it would be doubly bad if their outrageous behavior drives Democrats to use the same tactics in response. American politics is, hopefully, an infinite game, not a finite game, and that means doing everything possible to steer away from retaliatory loops that clearly lead to the system crumbling.

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Government shutdown deal: Democrats didnt cave on the ...

Late Tuesday, the GOP gave up on 2018 budget talks and drafted a new temporarybudget plan, dubbed a Continuing Resolution, which would keep the governmentopen for another month until February 16. That date will mark almost five months after the 2018 budget was slated to begin October 1.

If the CR passes the House and Senate, the GOP and the Democrats will get another month to develop a 2018 budget while Democrats gain another month to wear down GOP and Trump opposition to their amnesty-plus plan.

The amnesty talks are being overseen by the four deputy leaders of the Senate and House , including GOP Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy. Democrats negotiations tactics include emotional public claims of racism, televised sob stories from migrants, skewed polls, as well as intense back-room lobbying by illegal immigrants, open-borders advocates and by the CEOs whose stock-options would be reduced if a shortage of labor drives up wages.

If the amnesty does get approved by an exhausted Trump and GOP, it would wreck Trumps Buy American, Hire American presidency, 2018 turnout and his reelection. The approval would prove that Democrats, the establishment media,and business lobbies have the political power to simply raise the supply of cheap imported labor whenever companies are forced to pay higher wages to Americans, regardless of Trumps stunning victory in 2016.

If the Democrats amnesty push is foiled, then voters will be able to decide in November if they want a Congress to reduce or raise the immigration which has helped freeze Americans wages since 2000.

The GOPs short-term CR plan may get a vote in the House on Thursday, leaving the Senate little time to accept the plan by Friday night, after which the government starts closing down many non-essential functions.

Democratic leaders suggest they are willing to oppose a short-term budget and to force a government shutdown. For example, the House Democrats deputy leader, Rep. Steny Hoyer, told reporters on Tuesday:

We want to keep the government open. But I will repeat, were not going to be held hostage to do things that we think are contrary to the best interests of the American people because we will do the right thing and [Republicans] dont care.

House Democrats will not block the CR, predicted Virginia Rep. Dave Brat.I dont think anybody has any appetite for a shutdown the Democrats dont want to go there . the Democrats polling looks terrible for them, he said.

Democrats can block any budget because their minority of 49 votes in the Senate is enough to prevent passage of any budget through the Senate.

House GOP leaders have tried to win some Senate Democratic votes for the short-term plan by including several Democratic spending priorities, including a six-year extension of the CHIP health-care program for children.

GOP leaders may also need Democratic votes in the House because the GOPs defense-industry members threatened to vote against the leaders budget because it does not guarantee a big increase in defense spending for the rest of the year. The extra defense money is not in the budget because Democratic leaders are demanding that any defense increase is accompanied by a similar increase in non-defense spending.

In response, some of the budget hawks suggested they will approve giveaway-amnesty in exchange for a defense increase. Frankly, I think its not that hard to get a DACA deal, but the question is do [Capitol Hill leaders] want to? Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, told reporters.

GOP leaders have tried to separate the amnesty fight from the budget, partly because any separation would minimize Democratic leverage in the dispute.

But Democrats are keeping the two issues linked by claiming that the budget dispute is about several spending priorities while also all saying those budget issues could be solved if the GOP surrenders on the amnesty.For example, Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who is facing election in November, is trying to portray himself as a Trump ally while he blocks a budget deal by demanding extra funding for health care centers. Politico reported:

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) also declined to commit to voting for a stopgap spending bill this week that didnt address his key priorities, citing community health centers rather than DACA. Any funding bill has to have those priorities included, he told reporters.

The Democrats hide-the-amnestystrategy is acknowledged by a variety of pro-amnesty advocates and makes political sense because polls show the public strongly opposes wage-cutting mass immigration. According to CNN:

If Democrats stay united on all issues, and (DACA) doesnt get isolated the way it was in December, then theres a better chance that Democrats have leverage to compel the kind of negotiations that might produce a deal in time, Frank Sharry, executive director of Americas Voice Education Fund, a pro-immigration reform group, told reporters

Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia said he would reject any characterization of Democrats shutting down the government over DACA or anything else, saying it was essential for Democrats to stay united and keep all their issues together.

Right now, theres a lot of linkage with a lot of issues, and Democrats are doing, I think, the right thing in highlighting the unfinished business and the linkages, right? Connolly said, citing childrens health insurance, veterans benefits, surveillance reform and DACA. And youve got to use all the leverage youve got while youve got it.

The Senate GOPs deputy leader, Sen. John Cornyn, however, says the Democrats are holding up the budget to win the amnesty. Democrats are holding [a budget] deal hostage for a DACA negotiation, he said Monday.

Aided by favorable media, Democrats in the Senate are playing so tough that they plan to formally introduce their amnesty-plus plan on Wednesday.

That amnesty-plus has already been rejected by Trump on January 11 in a meeting where Trump opposed migration quotas from shithole countries. Since then, Democrats have repeatedly claimed that Trump can partially expiate his sins by endorsing their amnesty.Extortion would be a good word for it, probably better than blackmail it seems, said Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations at NumbersUSA.com. She continued:

PresidentTrump is the is only one who is focused on how do we bring people back into the labor market hereare these Democrats saying youre a racist if you dont do what we say which will actually hurt poor Americans, including African-Americans

Trump and some GOP immigration experts oppose the Democrats amnesty-plus because it offers only token changes to the visa lottery program and to the chain-migration rules, and only offers one years worth of wall-building money.

The version of the amnesty-plus plan slated for announcement on Wednesday does not seem to include any additional proposals to meet Trumps election-winning, poll-approved immigration priorities.

The amnesty-plus plan would cover roughly 3 million youngerillegals, plus millions of their parents, plus roughly 400,000 Temporary Protected Status migrants, plus millions of their future chain-migration relatives.

GOP leaders are formally opposing the amnesty but are doing very little to alert thepublic to the Democrats wage-cutting amnesty. For example, GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell denounced the amnesty push as unneeded pending a court battle which has restarted the DACA amnesty but has declined to make any emotional or wage-related PR argument against the Dmeocrats amnesty.

Similarly, the GOP leadership in the House has done nothing to promote the combined reform-and-amnesty plan developed by judiciary chairman Rep. Bob Goodlatte.

On Tuesday, House members at a caucus meeting pressed their leadership to push the Goodlatte bill through the House.They were nodding yes in conference today, but they have not given any firm commitment, said Brat. He continued:

Goodlatte stood up and spoke, [Rep. Raul] Labrador spoke at the caucus meeting. That bill has widespread support We think we can get all Republican votes, 218, for real They needtosupport it, whip it, and push it.

[Polls show] we have the leverage now, and want to see our leadership take command, not only with the Democrats but with the Senate. It is time for them to take some votes, not us, as always.

In 2014, House and Senate GOP leaders adopted a strategy of failure theater to disguise their unwillingness to oppose former President Barack Obamas DAPA amnesty for several million illegal-immigrant parents of native-born children. In a series of step-by-step retreats, GOP leaders wentfrom arguing in November 2014 they would fight the amnesty tooth and nail to shrugging their shoulders in March 2015.

Without GOP backup, Trump will come under greater pressure from the media and the Democrats to surrender the amnesty in exchange for some wall-construction funds but without any legal changes to prevent people using legal loopholes in the wall, and without any changes to chain-migration and the visa lottery.

If Trump keeps his policies firm, however, the GOP will be able to use the Democrats pro-immigration, anti-American behavior to win more seats in Congress in the 2018 election.

The Democratic base is rewarding that kind of [pro-amnesty] behavior, said Brat. I think the country will differ when they get the chance to vote on the Democrats refusal to develop popular policies on health care, the economy, and immigration, he added.

Polls show thatTrumps American-first immigration policyis very popular. For example, a Decemberpollof likely 2018 voters shows two-to-one voter support for Trumps pro-American immigration policies, and a lopsided four-to-one opposition against the cheap-labor, mass-immigration, economic policy pushed by bipartisan establishment-backed D.C. interest-groups.

Business groups and Democrats tout the misleading, industry-funded Nation of Immigrants polls which pressure Americans to say they welcome migrants, including the roughly 670,000 DACA illegals and the roughly 3.25 million dreamer illegals.

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Democrats Block 2018 Budget, Gain Another Month to Push ...

The 2018 election season kicked off Tuesday with an upset in ruralWisconsin, where Democrats flipped a state Senate seat that had been held by Republicans since the start of the century.

With every precinct counted in the race for Wisconsins 10th Senate District, Democrat Patty Schachtner was the clear victor over RepublicanAdam Jarchow, a member of the state Assembly. Schachtner, a medical examiner in St. Croix County, won by9 points a massive swing in a district that former senator Sheila Harsdorf, a Republican, won in 2016 with 63.2 percent of the vote.

A change is coming!!! wrote Wisconsin Democratic Party chair Martha Laning after Schachtners victory became clear Tuesday night.

The result in the 10th, which Harsdorf won in 2000 and held easily for years, gave Wisconsin Democrats their first pickup on Republican turf since 2011. In 2010, the party lost control of the governors office and both houses of the legislature; the next year, Democrats rode a brief backlash to Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) and picked up two Senate seats in recall elections.

A Republican-friendly gerrymander wiped out those gains, and in 2014 and 2016, Republicans capitalized on Democrats rural fade and Donald Trumps coattails to grow their majorities.

The Post's polling team analyzed Virginia's 2017 gubernatorial race to see if a "Trump effect" was at play. (Monica Akhtar/The Washington Post)

But last year, after Harsdorf left for a job in Walkers administration, both parties saw the 10th District as potentially competitive. Americans for Prosperity spent $50,000 to boost Jarchow, while the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and Greater Wisconsin Political Independent Expenditure Fund spent nearly as much on advertisements forSchachtner. U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Wis.), one of 10 Democrats up for reelection this year in states won by Trump, recorded a get-out-the-vote video for Schachtner.

The Democrats upset win was the 34th pickup for the party of the 2018 cycle. Republicans have flipped four seats from blue to red two in the Republican-trending Deep South, one in New Jersey and one in Massachusetts.

But on average, even in races that went against them, Democrats have improved on their margins from the 2016 rout. In other Tuesday elections,DemocratDennis Degenhardtwon 43 percent of the vote in Wisconsins 58th Assembly District; in 2016, Hillary Clinton won just 28 percent of the vote there, and no Democrat contested the seat. In Iowas 6th House District, Democrat Rita DeJong won 44 percent of the vote; in 2016, the partys nominee won just 35 percent. In South Carolinas 99th House District, Democrat Cindy Boatwright lost with 43 percent of the vote; the party had not run a candidate for the seat in this decade.

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Democrats flip state Senate seat in Wisconsin - The ...

The federal government barreled toward a partial shutdown Monday as the Democrats in Congress dug in their heels in a battle of political wills with President Trump and his Republican allies on Capitol Hill.

The Democrats are demanding relief from deportation for illegal immigrants who participated in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program as part of a deal to keep the lights on in Washington. Its risky; the party in the White House tends to win shutdown fights, as Republicans learned in 2013 and previously.

But the Democrats are confident. They are convinced the uproar over Trumps denigration of immigrants from Haiti and certain African nations by referring to them as coming from shithole countries has given them the upper hand in the debate.

The politics, especially right now, is more about why the shutdown is happening and, if there is a shutdown, it can easily be attributed to the unreasonable demands of a racist president, Ed Espinoza, a Democratic strategist in Austin, Texas, said.

The shutdown of 2013 essentially happened because Republicans could not keep Ted Cruz in line, he added. If theres a shutdown in 2018, it will be because Republicans cannot keep Donald Trump in line.

Republicans in the past 25 years have twice used their congressional majorities to shut down the government as a means to win concessions from a Democratic president. Twice the Republicans failed and folded after causing severe political damage to their partys brand, once in late 1995 versus President Bill Clinton, once in late 2013 versus President Barack Obama.

Democrats, under pressure from their base to secure legalization for so-called Dreamers, adults brought to the U.S. illegally as children by their parents, appear ready to gamble that walking away from a spending deal will pay off. Trump his demanded billions for border security, including a physical wall across the southern border, an ask especially opposed by liberals.

Sen. Tom Cotton, a top Trump ally, is daring Democrats to take the plunge. In a Sunday post on Twitter, the Arkansas Republican said a Democratic shutdown would improve chances of GOP pick-ups in Senate races in states Trump won in 2016.

So Democrats are now threatening to shut down the government if they dont get amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants. Lets see how that works out for them, especially in places like West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana, he said.

Trump has added his own voice on Twitter. He is attempting to define the Democrats as inflexible and recalcitrant, putting politics over compromise.

In one of the presidents most recent posts, he went after Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., among his partys chief negotiators and who revealed that Trump used the term shithole in a private meeting in the White House.

Senator Dicky Durbin totally misrepresented what was said at the DACA meeting. Deals cant get made when there is no trust! Durbin blew DACA and is hurting our Military, Trump said.

Democrats dont have the votes to block a spending bill in the House. But in the Senate, where a 60-vote supermajority is required to approve appropriations, the Republicans are nine votes short, and thats if they are unanimous, which on fiscal issues is rare.

The issue is whether the voters will reward the Democrats if they use the power of the 49-seat Senate minority to block the majority party in Congress and the White House. In the past, when Republicans prosecuted a similar challenge, voters deemed them unreasonable.

I have yet to see a scenario in my entire life going back to [President Ronald] Reagan where a shutdown benefitted the Republicans politically, a GOP strategist said. Having said that, if it was ever clear that this is the doing of Democrats whose base wont let them work with the president, it is now.

If Republicans have a concern, it is that Trumps occasionally undisciplined, erratic communications style will allow the Democrats to dominate the debate. That, and the presidents low job approval ratings and a possible midterm backlash against the GOP, is keeping the Republicans on edge.

Republicans being Republicans, and with Trump's penchant for straying way off message, I can see them getting blamed as well, a Republican insider said. Voters don't understand the nuances of the whole 60-vote thing and it doesn't translate well into a short sound bite: If they are in charge of everything, they are responsible for it, right?

If Democratic insiders are worried, its about Trumps ability to amplify his message through conservative media.

Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House so the idea of blaming Democrats because Republicans cant get the job done is ridiculous, Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau said. That wont stop Trump from making that case forcefully, and I suspect his base and allies in the conservative media will help to amplify the charge regardless of its veracity.

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Democrats confident they can win government shutdown fight

Democrats are going on the offensive on Russia.

The top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday ramped up pressure on the Trump administration to slap new sanctions on Russia, releasing a massive report written without GOP involvement that details President Vladimir Putins alleged electoral meddling around the world.

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That came one day after another senior Democratic senator abruptly released the transcript of an interview with a key player in the investigation looking into any ties between President Donald Trump and Russia's interference.

And across the Capitol, a half-dozen House Democrats banded together to push Republicans for a more comprehensive response to Russian disruption of the 2016 election, warning that Moscow will again meddle with the democratic process.

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Democrats, frustrated by conservative attempts to undercut the investigation into Trumps ties to Moscow and growing convinced that Republicans arent taking electoral security seriously, are increasingly tired of waiting on their colleagues in the majority to act and are taking their concerns public.

We must counter Russias well-established election interference playbook, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said in a floor speech billed as puncturing partisan efforts to deflect attention and distract from critical inquiries into Moscows attempts to upend the 2016 election.

Russia will hack. Russia will bully. Russia will propagandize, he said.

Sen. Ben Cardins staff on the Foreign Relations Committee extensively detailed that alleged behavior by Putins network in the report Wednesday, which does not address special counsel Robert Muellers probe but repeatedly slams Trump for a laggard response that it says puts U.S. security at risk.

President Trump is squandering an opportunity to lead Americas allies and partners to build a collective defense against the Kremlins global assault on democratic institutions and values, the report states. But it is not too late.

Among the report's two dozen-plus recommendations is a call for the Trump administration to implement a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill. Lawmakers in both parties raised alarms after the administration missed an October deadline to designate potential targets for new sanctions, and belated compliance came only after a nudge from Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.).

The next critical deadline is Jan. 29, the earliest date that companies could face penalties for engaging in "significant transactions" with targets in the Russian defense or intelligence sectors. The sanctions bill also asks the Treasury Department to give Congress a series of reports by the end of this month, including one on Russian oligarchs who could face future sanctions and their connections to Putin, and another on the effect of expanding sanctions to Moscow's sovereign debt.

One Democratic aide on the Foreign Relations Committee said the minority would be "waiting and seeing" how the administration treats the required Russian oligarch list as a test of its commitment to sanctions implementation.

"If theres, like, two names on it, then theyre probably not taking it very seriously," the aide told reporters.

Other Democratic proposals to safeguard against future electoral disruption by Putin include placing FBI investigators in embassies and disclosing intelligence about the Russian leaders personal corruption and wealth stored abroad.

Democratic staffers on the Foreign Relations panel were optimistic that the report would win some Republican buy-in after its Wednesday release, much as the package of Russia sanctions drew widespread GOP support even as Trump continued to publicly deny that Moscow intervened in the 2016 election.

A lot of Republicans have been publicly critical of how Trump has handled the Russia issue specifically, one aide told reporters.

Corker said Tuesday that he would "look at the whole" Russia report, adding that he and Cardin (D-Md.) "have a very good relationship. He knew it was probably not something that Id want to be a part of, but he made me aware of it."

A spokeswoman for Corker, a lead author of last year's Russia sanctions legislation, said in a statement that Corker "appreciates the fact that Senator Cardin previously notified him" of the Democratic report, which he received a copy of late Monday. "While we will review the report in its entirety, including the recommendations, no further full committee activity is planned at this time.

Republicans say they are working on election security ahead of the midterms, and the bipartisan leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee are expected to provide recommendations on the matter before the primary season begins.Eight House Republicans and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) already have signed on to legislation that would codify one recommendation in the Cardin report, which proposes that social media companies require disclosure of the funding sources behind political ads on their platforms to prevent Russian attempts at manipulation. Still, the prospects for movement on that measure appear grim at present given the scant number of GOP backers.

If Republicans did get on board with Cardin's report, that would mark a stark contrast with the partisan conflagration that erupted Tuesday on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Top Democrat Dianne Feinstein of California released the transcript of the panel's August interview with Glenn Simpson, whose company was behind an explosive dossier tying Trump to the Kremlin. A spokesman for the Judiciary panel's chairman, Sen. Chuck Grassley (D-Iowa), slammed Feinstein's decision to unilaterally release the document, but she seemed unconcerned Tuesday.

"The only way to set the record straight is to make the transcript public," she said.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said the Senate Judiciary Committee's Russia investigation, "to be very blunt, has been painfully slow."

"If there is no price, it will be done with impunity again," he said.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) expressed skepticism that Republican leaders would heed her call to ramp up the pace of investigative and oversight work against Russian meddling as the 2018 midterms approach.

"On a score of what to what?" she quipped to reporters.

"I have no doubt that if the Democrats were in power, we would have taken action to protect our electoral system," Pelosi said. "I have no doubt if the Democrats were in power, the Republicans would be urging that action, but thats not what theyre doing."

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Democrats punch back on Russia - POLITICO