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Democrats tried attacking Donald Trump as unfit for the presidency. Theyve made the case that hes ineffective, pointing to his failure to sign a single major piece of legislation into law after eight months in the job. Theyve argued that Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself and that his campaign was in cahoots with Russia.

None of it is working.

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Data from a range of focus groups and internal polls in swing states paint a difficult picture for the Democratic Party heading into the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election. It suggests that Democrats are naive if they believe Trumps historically low approval numbers mean a landslide is coming. The party is defending 10 Senate seats in states that Trump won and needs to flip 24 House seats to take control of that chamber.

The research, conducted by private firms and for Democratic campaign arms, is rarely made public but was described to POLITICO in interviews with a dozen top operatives whove been analyzing the results coming in.

If thats the attitude thats driving the Democratic Party, were going to drive right into the ocean, said Anson Kaye, a strategist at media firm GMMB who worked on the Obama and Clinton campaigns and is in conversations with potential clients for next year.

Worse news, they worry: Many of the ideas party leaders have latched onto in an attempt to appeal to their lost voters free college tuition, raising the minimum wage to $15, even Medicare for all test poorly among voters outside the base. The people in these polls and focus groups tend to see those proposals as empty promises, at best.

Pollsters are shocked by how many voters describe themselves as exhausted by the constant chaos surrounding Trump, and they find that theres strong support for a Congress that provides a check on him rather than voting for his agenda most of the time. But he is still viewed as an outsider shaking up the system, which people in the various surveys say they like, and which Democrats dont stack up well against.

People do think hes bringing about change, so its hard to say he hasnt kept his promises, said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

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In focus groups, most participants say theyre still impressed with Trumps business background and tend to give him credit for the improving economy. The window is closing, but theyre still inclined to give him a chance to succeed.

More than that, no single Democratic attack on the president is sticking not on his temperament, his lack of accomplishments or the deals hes touted that have turned out to be less than advertised, like the presidents claim that he would keep Carrier from shutting down its Indianapolis plant and moving production to Mexico.

Voters are also generally unimpressed by claims that Trump exaggerates or lies, and they dont see the ongoing Russia investigation adding up to much.

There are a number of things that are raising questions in voters minds against him, said Matt Canter, whos been conducting focus groups for Global Strategy Group in swing states. Theyre all raising questions, but we still have to weave it into one succinct narrative about his presidency.

Stop, Democratic operatives urge voters, assuming that what they think is morally right is the best politics. A case in point is Trumps response to the violence in Charlottesville. The presidents equivocation on neo-Nazis was not as much of a political problem as his opponents want to believe, Democratic operatives say, and shifting the debate to whether or not to remove Confederate monuments largely worked for him.

He is the president. The assessment that voters will make is, is he a good one or not? While Democrats like me have come to conclusions on that question, most of the voters who will decide future elections have not, Canter said.

Many of the proposals Democrats are pushing fall flat in focus groups and polling.

The call for free college tuition fosters both resentment at ivory tower elitism and regret from people who have degrees but are now buried under debt. Many voters see free as a lie either theyll end up paying for tuition some other way, or worse, theyll be paying the tuition of someone else wholl be getting a degree for free.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Gerstein Bocian Agne Strategies conducted online polling of 1,000 Democrats and 1,000 swing voters across 52 swing districts for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Their advice to candidates afterward: Drop the talk of free college. Instead, the firms urged Democrats to emphasize making college more affordable and reducing debt, as well as job skills training, according to an internal DCCC memo.

When Democrats go and talk to working-class voters, we think talking to them about how we can help their children go to college, they have a better life, is great, said Ali Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic House candidates. They are not interested. Its a problem when you have a growing bloc in the electorate think that college is not good, and they actually disdain folks that go to college.

Medicare-for-all tests better, but it, too, generates suspicion. The challenge is that most voters in focus groups believe its a pipe dream they ask who will pay for it and suspect it will lead to a government takeover of health care and therefore wonder whether the politicians talking to them about it are being less than forthright, too. Sen. Bernie Sanders is scheduled to release a single-payer bill on Wednesday, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Tammy Baldwin among those joining him.

Health care is one bright spot for Democrats. Obamacare is less unpopular than it used to be, and voters generally want the law to be repaired. Data also show that voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on the issue: Voters rated Trump and Democrats about equally on health care at the start of his term, but Democrats now have a large double-digit lead, according to DCCC polling.

But attacking Republicans on the issue is tricky. The specifics of GOP alternatives are unpopular, but most voters dont realize Republicans had a plan, so its hard to persuade them to care about the details of something that never came to be.

Raising the minimum wage to $15 is as unpopular as it was when the Obama White House tried to make it Democrats rallying cry in the 2014 midterms. Participants in battleground-state focus groups said they see that rate as relatively high and the issue in general as being mostly about redistributing money to the poor.

The DCCC memo urges candidates instead to talk about a living wage, or to rail against outsourcing jobs.

What youre seeing is this thing that Democrats cannot seem to figure out this notion that somehow if we just put the words together correctly thatll be the winning message and well win, Kaye said. That is the opposite of how the electorate is behaving.

On immigration and trade, voters remain largely aligned with Trump. Data show that voters believe that the economy is moving in the right direction and resent Democrats attacking its progress.

Late last month, Democratic pollster Peter Hart ran a 12-person focus group in Pittsburgh that shocked him for how quickly and decisively it turned against the president. But he came away wary of Democrats who take that as evidence that attacking Trump will win them elections even as DCCC and other polling shows voters are turned off by members of Congress who vote with the president 90 percent of the time or more.

People would like more of a sense of reassurance than weve had so far, Hart said. For the Democrats, part of that is recognizing that its not that theres an overwhelming agenda item on the part of the American public its not the economy or health care or some single issue but it is the sense that somehow things are very out of sorts, and it touches so many different issues.

Thats the main difference between 2018 and 2006, when Democrats strategy primarily consisted of running against an unpopular president, George W. Bush, and an unpopular war.

It may have worked then, said former Rep. Steve Israel, the DCCC chair in the 2012 and 2014 cycles and the leader of messaging for House Democrats last year. Im not sure its going to work now, because the middle class is clamoring for help. Just saying were not Trump isnt going to help.

More and more, Democratic operatives are gravitating toward pushing for an argument that Trump is just out to make his rich friends richer, at the expense of everyone else. They believe they could include all sorts of attacks on his decisions under that umbrella, from stripping regulations on credit cards to trying to end Obamacare to pushing for corporate tax breaks.

DCCC polling showed that on the question of who fights for people like me, Trump and Democrats were split at 50 percent each in February but that Democrats are now ahead by 17 points.

Everything is a trade-off, said Guy Cecil, reflecting polling done by his Priorities USA super PAC. Republicans want to give tax cuts to the rich, and they want to screw the rest of us. This is a quintessential question of whose side are you on.

Bill Burton, a former Obama aide now at SKDKnickerbocker, said hes worried Democrats are still not making a convincing argument on economic issues.

But he sees some cause for optimism.

The question has to be what counts as working the guys approval ratings are in the mid-30s, Burton said of Trump. So the other way of looking at this is, everything is working.

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Teflon Don confounds Democrats - POLITICO

Democrats had a really good night on Tuesday, easily claiming the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, flipping control of the Washington state Senate and possibly also the Virginia House of Delegates, passing a ballot measure in Maine that will expand Medicaid in the state, winning a variety of mayoral elections around the country, and gaining control of key county executive seats in suburban New York.

They also got pretty much exactly the results youd expect when opposing a Republican president with a 38 percent approval rating.

Thats not to downplay Democrats accomplishments. Democrats results were consistent enough, and their margins were large enough, that Tuesdays elections had a wave-like feel. That includes how they performed in Virginia, where Ralph Northam won by considerably more than polls projected. When almost all the toss-up races go a certain way, and when the party winning those toss-up races also accomplishes certain things that were thought to be extreme long shots (such as possibly winning the Virginia House of Delegates), its almost certainly a reflection of the national environment.

But we didnt need Tuesday night to prove that the national environment was good for Democrats; there was plenty of evidence for it already. In no particular order of importance:

So while Northams 9-point margin of victory was a surprise based on the polls, which had projected him to win by roughly 3 points instead, it was right in line with what you might expect based on these fundamental factors. For instance, a simple model we developed based on the generic ballot and state partisanship forecasted a 9-point win for Democrats in Virginia and a 13-point win in New Jersey, pretty much matching their actual results in each state.

To put it another way, Tuesdays results shouldnt have exceeded your expectations for Democrats by all that much because you should have had high expectations already. Midterm elections and usually also off-year and special elections almost always go well for the opposition party, and theyre going to go especially well when the president has a sub-40 approval rating.

So, does that mean that Democrats are clear favorites to pick up the House next year? No, not necessarily. Id say theyre favorites, but not particularly heavy ones. Democrats face one major disadvantage, and they have one major source of uncertainty.

The uncertainty is time: Theres still a year to go until the midterms. This could cut either way, of course. The political environment often deteriorates for the presidents party during his second year in office, and one can imagine a variety of factors (from attempting to pass an unpopular tax plan to ongoing bombshells in the Russia investigation) that could further worsen conditions for Republicans. One can also imagine a variety of factors that would help the GOP: Democrats overplaying their hand on impeachment; a rally-around-the-flag effect after a war or terror attack; Trump quitting Twitter. (OK, probably not that last one.) That Trump is so unpopular so soon in his term makes all of this harder to predict because there arent any good precedents for a president with such a poor approval rating so early on.

Democrats also face a big disadvantage in the way their voters are distributed across congressional districts, as a result of both gerrymandering and geographic self-sorting. Although these calculations can vary based on the incumbency advantage and other factors, my back-of-the-envelope math suggests that Democrats would only be about even-money to claim the House even if they won the popular vote for the House by 7 percentage points next year. The Republican ship is built to take on a lot of water, although it would almost certainly capsize if the Democratic advantage in the House popular vote stretched into the double digits, as it stands now in some congressional preference polls.

Nonetheless, my sense is that the conventional wisdom has, to this point, somewhat underrated the Democrats chances of having a wave election next year. And its for some fairly stupid (although understandable) reasons.

One is in the tendency to fight the last war. Journalists and pundits are always chastened by the lessons of the most recent election, especially if the outcome was surprising to them. And they usually like to argue that the results represented a realignment or a paradigm shift, rather than as is more often the case a fluctuation that came about from a combination of cyclical and circumstantial factors that may not replicate themselves. So theyre often slow to recognize signs that the political climate is shifting in the opposite direction from the supposed realignment, even when theyre really obvious. (Like, say, a Republican winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts only a year after the Democratic president took office.)

Second, the pundit class has a poor understanding of polling, and how it performed in 2016 and its making 2018 punditry worse. As I wrote in our live blog on Tuesday night:

[Its] been interesting to see how television pundits adapt to the post-2016 environment. Pretty much everyone on Monday mornings Morning Joe panel predicted that Gillespie would win in Virginia despite Northams modest lead in the polls, for instance

[The] segment was a bit worrisome in that it suggests that political pundits and reporters learned the wrong lessons from 2016. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the polls werent that far off last year they were about as accurate as theyd been in past elections. But they were filtered thru a lens of groupthink that was convinced Trump couldnt possibly win and so pundits routinely misinterpreted polls and ignored data showing a competitive race.

Its healthy to take away the lesson from 2016 that polls are not always right But that polls arent always right doesnt mean that ones gut instinct is a better way to forecast elections. On the contrary, the conventional wisdom has usually been much wronger than the polls, so much so that its given rise to what Ive called the First Rule of Polling Errors, which is that polls almost always miss in the opposite direction of what pundits expect. That the Morning Joe panel thinks Gillespie will win might be a bullish indicator for Northam, in other words.

If you think numbers like Trumps 37.6 percent approval rating are fake news because polls perpetually underrated Trump before, then the political climate doesnt look quite as scary for the GOP. However, one needs to be careful about assuming the polling error always runs in the same direction; historically, its been just as likely to reverse itself from one election to the next. (For instance, polls lowballed Democrats in 2012 but then did the same to Republicans in 2014.)

Finally, theres perhaps an unhealthy obsession with the white working-class vote, and its potential to sway the 2018 midterms in favor of Republicans. This could be more of a concern for Democrats in 2020. But the midterm electorate is typically more educated and better off financially than the presidential-year one. Also, most of the pickup opportunities that analysts envision for Democrats are in wealthy or at least middle-class areas. On average, the 61 Republican-held Congressional districts that the Cook Political Report rates as competitive rank in the 65th percentile in educational attainment (as measured by the share of adults with at least a bachelors degree) and also the 65th percentile in median household income. Some of them are fairly white, and some arent but almost none are both white and working-class.

Demographic ranking for the 61 Republican-held Congressional districts that the Cook Political Report rates as competitive

Sources: COOK POLITICAL REPORT, AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

Of course, this logic is somewhat circular: if Democrats arent trying to compete for the white working-class vote, outlets like Cook wont list white working-class districts as being competitive. Its possible there are some overlooked opportunities, such as in South Carolinas 5th Congressional District, which Democrats came surprisingly close to winning in a special election earlier this year.

Nonetheless, Democrats have quite a few pathways toward winning the House that rely primarily on middle-class and upper-middle-class suburban districts, plus a few districts with growing nonwhite populations. Many of these are in coastal states or in blue states, including four of them in Virginia, four in New Jersey, four in Illinois, five in New York and eight in California, according to Cooks list. It might not be advisable for Democrats to only target these sorts of districts; history suggests that parties usually benefit from competing ambitiously in all sorts of districts and seeing where the chips fall. But its plausible for them to do so and reclaim the House. Come 2020, though, it will be harder for Democrats to win back the Electoral College without rebounding among the white working class.

Last thing: while Tuesdays results may not change the reality of the 2018 outlook all that much, it could change perceptions about it, and that could have some knock-on effects. (Politicians are often like Morning Joe panelists in how they think about elections.) Republicans retirement issues may get even worse; Democrats recruiting may get even better. Republicans might think twice about how theyre proceeding on tax reform especially given that their current plans could have negative effects on just the sorts of wealthy coastal suburbs where Republicans performed poorly on Tuesday.

And there will be lots of recriminations about the race that Ed Gillespie ran in Virginia, which could change Republicans thinking on how they should relate to Trump. Some of this is going to be silly: Gillespie did no worse (and no better) than youd expect given Trumps approval rating and Virginias blue lean. But if those politicians think Tuesday was a huge game-changing deal, they may begin to act like it and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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The Fundamentals Favor Democrats In 2018 | FiveThirtyEight

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio speaks during his election night victory gathering on Tuesday. Julie Jacobson/AP hide caption

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio speaks during his election night victory gathering on Tuesday.

Updated at 6:50 a.m. ET

It was a good night for Democrats in some of the nation's largest cities.

New York's Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio, a forceful critic of President Trump, easily won a second term. And Democrats also won several major cities and closely watched races, including those in Boston, Charlotte, N.C., and Seattle.

With all of the precincts counted, de Blasio had 66 percent of the vote to 28 percent for his main rival, Republican Nicole Malliotakis.

"It's a good night for progressives," de Blasio said at a victory party, according to The New York Times. "For the first time in 32 years, a Democratic mayor was re-elected in New York City. But let's promise each other: This is the beginning of a new era of progressive Democratic leadership in New York City for years and years to come."

Member station WNYC in New York reports: "Republican Staten Island Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis was [de Blasio's] top challenger, but failed to get widespread recognition and support. Meanwhile de Blasio campaigned on record lows on crime, expanding free pre-K and increasing the number of affordable housing units across the city."

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan addresses a ceremony honoring 15 Detroit entrepreneurs in Detroit in January. Carlos Osorio/AP hide caption

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan addresses a ceremony honoring 15 Detroit entrepreneurs in Detroit in January.

"He accused Duggan of being corrupt, favoring downtown business interests over neighborhood concerns, and effectively creating 'two Detroits:' one for prosperous newcomers, and another for mostly poor, longtime city residents.

"Duggan alluded to those 'us versus them attacks' in his victory speech without ever mentioning Young's name, saying he deliberately chose to take the high road in his campaign."

Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Vi Lyles answers a question during a mayoral debate. Skip Foreman/AP hide caption

Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Vi Lyles answers a question during a mayoral debate.

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Democrats Sweep Mayoral Elections In New York, Other Major ...

The Democratic wave in Virginia on Tuesday wiped out the Republican majority in the state House of Delegates, throwing control of the chamber in play for the first time since 2000 and putting Republicans in blue-tinged districts across the country on alert for next years elections.

Democrats snared at least 15 seats in an upset that stunned members of both parties and arrived with national implications.

Unofficial returns showed Democrats unseating at least a dozen Republicans and flipping three seats that had been occupied by GOP incumbents who did not seek reelection. Four other races were so close that they qualify for a recount, and the outcome will determine control of the chamber. The results marked the most sweeping shift in control of the legislature since Reconstruction.

Republicans, who have controlled the chamber since 2000, went into Tuesday holding 66 of 100 seats. Democrats fielded the most candidates in recent memory, including a record number of women.

Control of the chamber may not be determined for days as provisional ballots are counted in narrow races.

Democrats need to hold one seat where they are narrowly leading to ensure a 50-50 split where power sharing would be necessary, and to pick up an additional seat in a race eligible for a recount to take full control of the chamber.

Democrat Ralph Northam won the Virginia governors race over Republican Ed Gillespie on Nov. 7. Here are some other takeaways from the states election. (Amber Ferguson/The Washington Post)

The election signaled a major shift in the gender of a body long dominated by men: Of the 15 seats Democrats flipped, all were held by men and 11 were won by women. Several of those women made history.

One became Virginias first openly transgender person to win elective office, unseating an opponent of LGBT rights. Another became the first open lesbian elected to the House of Delegates, another the first Asian American woman and two, both from diverse Prince William County, are set to be the first Latinas elected to the General Assembly.

This is an unbelievable night, said House Minority Leader David J. Toscano (D-Charlottesville) in an interview an hour after polls closed. There were districts we didnt think we had much of a shot in.

[Why Democrats care about Virginias normally sleepy House of Delegate races]

Democrats benefited from gubernatorial contender Ralph Northams coattails: He won by nine percentage points.

Obviously, tonight was a difficult night, and the outcome is not what anyone expected, said Matt Moran, spokesman for the House Republican Caucus. We also want to thank our colleagues and fellow Republican candidates who ran principled campaigns based on positive ideas in a difficult political environment. Our team is closely monitoring the canvasses that will take place tomorrow as we await the official results.

Although House races are normally seen as the sleepy backwater to the gubernatorial contest, they generated a surge of interest this year from activists energized by President Trumps election and new groups that see the legislative contests as an opportunity to test strategies and technologies ahead of next years elections.

Strategists said the results suggest trouble for Republicans.

This is a tidal wave, said David Wasserman, an analyst who tracks U.S. House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Its hard to look at tonights results and to conclude anything other than that Democrats are the current favorite for control of the House in 2018.

The highest-spending House of Delegates race was in southwest Virginia, where former television news anchor Chris Hurst, whose girlfriend was fatally shot during a live broadcast in 2015, challenged Republican incumbent Joseph Yost.

Both raised more than $1 million for their bids, and Hurst won.

[In southwest Virginia, a hotly contested race free of hyperpartisan toxicity]

A pair of Democratic incumbents easily fended off well-financed challenges by Republicans. Subba Kolla, who would have been the bodys first Indian American lawmaker, lost to Del. John J. Bell in Loudoun County, and Heather Cordasco fell to Del. Michael P. Mullin in Hampton Roads.

Democrats flipped the most seats in Northern Virginia as Northam posted a strong showing in the populous region. If results hold, Democrats will hold every delegate seat in Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William counties and all but one in Loudoun County.

The biggest battleground for the House was Prince William, a Washington exurb where people of color constitute a majority of the population. A diverse group of five Democratic challengers hoped to channel demographic changes and Democratic energy to take seats held by white men and all won.

[In diverse Virginia suburb, Democrats hope to chart path back to power]

Danica Roem, who will be Virginias first openly transgender elected official, defeated Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Prince William), a culture warrior who opposes LGBT rights. Elizabeth Guzman, who raised more money than any Democratic candidate except for Hurst, unseated Del. L. Scott Lingamfelter (R-Woodbridge).

Republican Dels. Richard L. Anderson (Prince William) and Jackson H. Miller (Manassas) lost to their Democratic challengers, Hala Ayala and Lee Carter. Ayala and Guzman are Latina, and Carter is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

In an open seat vacated by a retiring Republican, Democrat Jennifer Carroll Foy easily defeated Republican Michael Makee.

In Fairfax County, Democrat Kathy Tran, the daughter of Vietnamese refugees, beat Republican Lolita Mancheno-Smoak for an open seat vacated by retiring Del. David B. Albo (R), while Democrat Karrie Delaney handily defeated Del. James M. LeMunyon (R). Del. Timothy D. Hugo, the Republican caucus chairman, was narrowly trailing Democratic challenger Donte Tanner, and the results were within the margin for a state-funded recount. Hugo picked up 100 votes during a Fairfax County canvass on Wednesday morning.

[More mothers of young children running for office in Virginia]

With nearly all precincts reporting in Loudoun County, Del. Thomas A. Tag Greason (R) was set to lose to Democratic challenger David Reid in that countys most competitive race in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by 19 points a year ago.

Greasons fellow Loudoun County lawmaker, Del. J. Randall Minchew, lost his seat to Democratic challenger Wendy Gooditis. Another Loudoun County Republican lawmaker, David A. LaRock, defeated his Democratic challenger, Tia Walbridge and may be the lone Republican left representing Northern Virginia in the House.

In the Richmond suburbs, Dels. John M. OBannon III and G. Manoli Loupassi lost their seats to Debra Rodman and Dawn Adams, who is openly lesbian. Democrat Schuyler T. VanValkenburg won an open seat vacated by Republican Jimmie Massie III.

In the Virginia Beach area, Del. Ronald A. Villanueva lost to Democrat Kelly Fowler, while N.D. Rocky Holcomb III lost to Cheryl Turpin in a squeaker. Del. Glenn R. Davis Jr. narrowly pulled out a win for reelection.

Republicans were barely leading in three contests that were in the margin for a recount, including in the race to succeed retiring Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford). Del. David Yancey (R-Newport News) led Shelly Simonds by only 12 votes.

Even if Democrats fall short of taking control of the chamber this year, they see a potential for additional pickups next year, if a court challenge of legislative district maps forces special elections, and in 2019 when all 100 seats are on the ballot again.

Republicans have a narrow 21-to-19 majority in the state Senate, where all seats are up in 2019.

Control of the governors mansion and legislature in Virginia has national implications. The General Assembly will draw congressional and state legislative district maps after the 2020 Census, and the governor has the power to veto those maps.

Maria Sacchetti and Jenna Portnoy contributed to this report.

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Democrats make significant gains in Virginia legislature ...

Virginia has told us to end the divisiveness, that we will not condone hatred and bigotry and to end the politics that have torn this country apart, he said, adding that in this state, Its going to take a doctor to heal our differences.

The Democrats electoral validation, though, took place well beyond the Virginia governors race: They wrested the governorship of New Jersey away from Republicans, swept two other statewide offices in Virginia, made gains in the Virginia State Legislature, and won a contested mayoral race in New Hampshire.

In New Jersey, Philip D. Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive, won the governorship by a vast margin that brought an unceremonious end to Gov. Chris Christies tumultuous tenure.

In both Virginia and New Jersey, voters rebuffed a wave of provocative ads linking immigration and crime, hinting at the limitations of hard-edge tactics in the sort of affluent and heavily suburban states that are pivotal in next years midterm elections.

Even though Republicans in the two states mirrored Mr. Trumps grievance-oriented politics, they kept him at arms length: He became the first president not to appear on behalf of candidates for governor in either state since 2001, when George W. Bush shunned the trail after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Since then, four of the five governors Virginia has elected have been Democrats. The party was also in contention late Tuesday to seize control of the state House of Delegates, an unexpected show of strength that, along with Mr. Northams victory, offered Democrats a stronger hand to block any Republican attempts at gerrymandering after the next census.

Representative Scott Taylor, a Republican from Virginia Beach, said he considered the Democratic sweep in Virginia a repudiation of the White House. He faulted Mr. Trumps divisive rhetoric for propelling the party to defeat, and said he believed traditionally Republican-leaning voters contributed to Mr. Northams margin of victory.

I do believe that this is a referendum on this administration, Mr. Taylor said of the elections. Democrats turned out tonight, but Im pretty sure there were some Republicans who spoke loudly and clearly tonight as well.

Channeling the shock of Republicans across the state, Mr. Taylor voiced disbelief at the partys rout down ballot. I know folks that lost tonight who were going against candidates Id never even heard of, he said.

Mr. Trump was quick to fault Mr. Gillespie for keeping his distance, writing on Twitter while traveling in South Korea that the Republican candidate did not embrace me or what I stand for.

Mr. Gillespie made no mention of Mr. Trump in his concession speech, and alluded only in passing to the explosive themes he wielded as a candidate. Ticking off issues he campaigned on, Mr. Gillespie noted his supporters were worried about safety for themselves and their families and their businesses.

Addressing supporters in a hotel ballroom, Mr. Gillespie tried to tack a courteous finale on to a rough-and-tumble race, offering his assistance to Mr. Northam going forward. I wish him nothing but the best success, Mr. Gillespie said.

Mr. Northams victory was a tonic to an anxious national party that has been reeling since Mr. Trumps win last year and was demoralized by losses in special House elections in Montana and Georgia.

A native of Virginias rural Eastern Shore, Mr. Northam, 58, was perhaps an unlikely vessel for the resistance-era Democratic Party. But the left overlooked the two votes he cast for George W. Bush before he entered politics, and his rsum he is a pediatric neurologist and Gulf War veteran proved far more appealing to the states broad middle than Mr. Gillespies background as a corporate lobbyist.

The Democrats success here came as Mr. Gillespie, trailing in the polls, turned to a scorched-earth campaign against Mr. Northam in the races final weeks. Mr. Gillespie, a fixture of his partys establishment who had once warned against the siren song of anti-immigrant politics, unleashed a multimillion-dollar onslaught linking his rival to a gang with Central American ties and a convicted pedophile who had his rights restored, while also assailing Mr. Northam for wanting to remove Virginias Confederate statues.

The strategy appeared to help Mr. Gillespie narrow the gap in the wake of the Charlottesville protests this summer, but it was not enough to overcome the anti-Trump energy in an increasingly diverse state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2009.

Mr. Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman, found it difficult to balance appeals to the presidents unflagging supporters in rural Virginia while simultaneously attempting to win over Mr. Trumps skeptics in the states population centers. He often would not say the presidents name, referring instead to the administration or last years Republican ticket.

In his concession speech, Mr. Gillespie made no mention of Mr. Trump, and declined to answer questions about the presidents criticism on Tuesday night.

Mr. Northam did not have to concern himself with any such political contortions running in a state that has backed the Democratic nominee for president in the last three elections, a striking reversal from an earlier day here when Virginia Democrats had to distinguish themselves from their more liberal national party.

Indeed, support for Mr. Northam represented a vote for continuity. Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat barred by state law from seeking re-election, is broadly popular, as are the states two Democratic senators, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Mr. McAuliffe, who was elected in 2013 during President Barack Obamas second term, was the first person in 40 years to win a Virginia governors race who was in the same party as the presidents.

In New Jersey, the Democratic ticket established a decisive advantage early in the campaign season, and that lead never flagged. Mr. Murphy, a wealthy Democratic donor who served as ambassador to Germany under Mr. Obama, ran on a message of rejecting both Mr. Trump and Mr. Christie, who is a politically toxic figure in the state.

National Republicans virtually ignored the race, viewing their nominee, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, as doomed by a deeply hostile political environment and her association with Mr. Christie. In Utahs Third Congressional District, John Curtis, the Republican nominee, emerged as the winner Tuesday night.

After blanketing Virginias airwaves before the primary with an ad in which he savaged the president as a narcissistic maniac, Mr. Northam struck a more sober-minded tone during the general election with another widely aired commercial in which he vowed to work with Mr. Trump when it is in the states interest.

But Virginia Democrats were in little mood to offer any olive branches to Mr. Trump on Tuesday.

Mr. Kaine, who a year ago was left achingly short of becoming vice president, was especially triumphant in speaking to supporters.

Trump-style division, pitting people against people, it is not the Virginia Way and it is not the American Way, he said.

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With Virginia, Voters Give Democrats First Big Wins of the ...