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Ex-GOP Gov. Hogan is popular with some Maryland Democrats, but not enough to put him in the Senate - Bowling Green Daily News

This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIMEs politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox.

The signage surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris in Jacksonville, Fla. last week was not exactly subtle: Reproductive Freedom and Trust Women framed the lone woman ever to be within a heartbeat of the presidency, as she laid the blame for Floridas ban on abortion after six weeks at the foot of former President Donald Trump on the very day it took effect. As a matter of political stagecraft, it was about as perfect as one could have scripted.

Donald Trump is the architect, Harris said on May 1, decrying the 4 million women who woke up that morning with fewer reproductive rights. He brags about it.

As a political matter, Harris is not wrong. Trump nominated three of the U.S. Supreme Court justices who made the end of Roe v. Wade possible, which in turn allowed Florida lawmakers to outlaw abortions in the state after six weeks. And five of the seven justices on the Florida court that allowed the new law to go into effect were named by Governor Ron DeSantis, who rose to power with Trumps blessing.

To Bidens campaign, the list of battleground states is longer than the measly seven that have thus far drawn the most attention. Steamy Florida, where Republicans hold every statewide office, has the potential to be a sexy eighth option. Hence: Harris visit last week, Bidens a week before, and a handful of new campaign hires to mind the state day to day.

Floridas overreach on reproductive rights may indeed put it in play this cycle, but the Sunshine State remains Trumps to lose. Much more likely is that we may now have an unexpectedly competitive race between GOP Sen. Rick Scott and his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Its a race that most strategists had relegated to the second tier until very recently. Along with the motivating power of Floridas six-week ban and a November ballot measure that will give voters the chance to undo it, Democratic Senator Joe Manchins decision to forgo a re-election bid in West Virginia has freed up valuable resourcesnot just from the Democratic Partys official Senate campaign arm but also the abortion rights groups who, to this point, have been undefeated when the question of access is put directly to voters.

While the White House race dominates in Florida in terms of sizzle, the Senate race may have greater consequences for the next few years. Biden might not need Florida if he can hold steady or even make his push into North Carolina. Even so, Democrats need to pick up at least one Republican-held seat if they have any chance of maintaining control of the Senate. Frankly, West Virginia is gone for a generation given Manchins retirement. That leaves the party with only two pick-up optionsFlorida and Texas, and the latter is at the moment only marginally less of a pipe dream. And that all assumes that Democrats can even hold their seats in places like Montana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

In other words, Democrats need every break they can get, which is why Mucarsel-Powell is the quiet rockstar that the party is trying to promote without flagging her as a target for the right.

What I think is happening is they are realizing the shift on the ground and the shift in Florida, Mucarsel-Powell tells TIME during a visit to our Washington Bureau.

To be clear, Scott remains the frontrunner. The few non-partisan polls in the state show him with a double-digit advantage. And while not exactly adored by his constituents, he has managed to eke out win after win over more than a decade. Hes never won any of his general-election races by more than two percentage points. (Usually less, and once via recount.) This is the first time he will be on the ballot when hes not the top of the ticket; that crown this year belongs to Trump, and theres no telling how the ex-President will dictate or derail news coverage over the next six months.

And Scotts time in Washington has been anything but smooth. In early 2022, he released a campaign strategy memo that drew the open scorn of some members and the ire of Senate Leadership, specifically its call to sunset popular social programs like Social Security and Medicare. (He has since retreated.) He tried and failed to unseat Senate Leader Mitch McConnell after the 2022 elections that he quarterbacked as head of the GOP Senates campaign arm.

Read more: The Least Popular Man in Washington

In a warning shot against Mucarsel-Powell, Scott has been spending about $700,000 a week on ads to promote his re-election, including one emphasizing his opposition to socialismtypically a winning message in immigrant-heavy Florida but one that even some Republicans worry may have lost clout when run against Mucarsel-Powell, whose family fled socialist Ecuador when she was a child. Mucarsel-Powell returned the salvo with a Spanish-language ad that says its freedom that Rick Scott wants to take away.

Scott may be the wet blanket of a candidate that his critics cast him as, but he knows the terrain and is a disciplined technocrat who will out-hustle his rivals. When I went to Florida in 2018 expecting to write him off, I couldnt help but to admire his workmanship as I watched him grind it out in boring roundtables and steamy town halls at shift changes. Looking to learn Spanish, he hired native-speaking personal aides to practice with him between eventsa pander at first glance but it gave him sufficient proficiency to show he was trying to understand his constituents.

Of course, his vast personal wealth provides him a huge leg up over his rivals. In his first campaign for governor, he spent $70 million of his own money to get to Tallahassee. His second campaign cost him almost $13 million. And his Senate race six years ago cost him more than $50 million.

Mucarsel-Powell has technically outraised Scott, drawing more than $7 million so far. While Scott has reported $7.7 million on his campaign filings, about $7 million is a loan from his checking account, and he has a personal fortune estimated at a quarter-billion dollars waiting at the ready.

Yet Mucarsel-Powell is poised to see a significant boost, now that courts have cleared the way for Floridians to be asked to preserve abortion rights this fall. Outside groups are readying a ton of cash to get the ballot measure to victory. Polling shows Florida in the same headspace of supporting abortion rights as Ohio and Kansas, both red states that surprised pundits when they backed abortion rights ballot issues.

But heres the hiccup: Democrats and allies will need 60% of voters to pass the ballot measure, a bar advocates cleared in California and Vermont but one that would have been fatal in Ohio, where voters backed a constitutional right to abortion with 57% support. And the wording on Floridas ballot measure is tricky and may be harder for voters to parse.

But Mucarsel-Powell only needs 50% plus one vote to win the seat, a target the ballot measure may help her reach, even if it falls short of its higher threshold.

Scotts team has been across the spectrum when it comes to abortion access in Florida. While he has said he would have preferred a 15-week ban, he nonetheless has backed the six-week one, and said he would have signed it if he had still been governor. (Florida Republicans are quick to note that, unlike total bans in other Southern states, Florida does allow abortions after six weeks for cases involving rape, incest, fetal abnormalities, or when the life of a pregnant person is at risk.)

Everyone knows that Senator Rick Scott supports the right to life. Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell does not, says Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to the Scott campaign. Floridians agree that there should be some reasonable limits placed on abortion. Senator Scott has been very clear where he stands: No national bans, with the consensus at 15 weeks with limitations for rape, incest, and life of the mother. Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell takes an extreme view opposing any common-sense limits on abortion."

Despite the murmurs of optimism on the Democratic side, Scott backers argue Democrats are overplaying their hand. Their strongest evidence: Floridas voter rolls no longer reflect a swing state, with registered Republicans sporting a 900,000-vote advantage, compared to a 100,000-vote deficit four years ago.

What Florida Democrats call newfound confidence, anyone with a brain calls delusion," Hartline tells TIME. "Republicans will win up and down the ballot in Florida because weve put the time and effort into registering voters and focusing on the issues that matter most to Florida families.

As recent elections have shown in spades, support for abortion rights is bipartisan. Of the roughly 1.3 million signatures submitted in the first round of filings for the ballot measure, roughly 150,000 of those Hancocks were registered Republicans.

I've been saying this for a long time because I've lived in Florida for so long: Florida is a very independent state. It's a purple state. It's a third, a third, a third, Mucarsel-Powell tells TIME.

Which is why Democrats are quietly cheering Murcasel-Powell on without too many heralds. Florida is enormously expensive, and the climb is very, very steepno matter what the polling says about 62% support for abortion in some or all cases.

Still, the fact that Florida is even in the conversation as an up-for-grabs state in 2024 is stunning. Its a sign of how much Republican overreach on abortion rights has made the landscape so much more fraught for their candidates. Democrats might have a fighting chance in Florida, even with a one-term former House member. Theyre just engaging relatively late, and with a decided cash disadvantage, given that the Republican incumbent is the richest man in the Senate.

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Why Democrats Are Suddenly Excited About Florida - TIME

In a letter sent Friday to White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, 26 Democrats in Congress said they're "deeply concerned" about the message the Biden administration is sending to Hamas and other Iranian-backed terrorist proxies by withholding weapons shipments to Israel at a critical moment.

The representatives called for a classified briefing about the White House's decision to "better understand how and when" the aid authorized and appropriated by Congress for Israel will be delivered.

The representatives said they fear US public disputes with Israel only emboldens mutual enemies like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other Iranian-backed proxies and buttresses their agenda of "chaos, brutality, and hate" and makes a hostage deal even harder to achieve.

"With democracy under assault around the world, we cannot undermine our ally Israel, especially in her greatest hour of need. Americas commitments must always be ironclad," the letter said.

The US has a duty to equip Israel with the resources it needs to defend itself and "crush the terrorists" who also seek to do America harm, free all hostages, continue delivering critical humanitarian aid to innocent civilians in Gaza and "stand by our democratic allies around the world," the letter said.

The letter was signed by reps. Josh Gottheimer (NJ), Jared Golden (ME), Costa (CA-21), Davis (NC-1), Lois Frankel (FL), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA) Vicente Gonzalez (TX), Steven Horsford (NV), Greg Landsman (OH), Susie Lee (NV), Kathy Manning (NC), Grace Meng (NY), Jared Moskowitz (FL-23), Donald Norcross (N), Frank Pallone (NJ), Jimmy Panetta (CA), Patrick Ryan (NY), Brad Schneider (IL), Darren Soto (FL-9), Haley Stevens (MI), Tom Suozzi (NY), Norma Torres (CA), Ritchie Torres (NY), Juan Vargas (CA), Marc Veasey (TX) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL).

Originally posted here:
Division among Democrats as 26 party members pen letter to Biden condemning withholding Israel aid - The Jerusalem Post

With US elections on the horizon, there are sizeable shifts within the Democratic Party, most notably, the Biden administration's policies pertaining to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

A poll conducted by Zeteo and Data For Progress found that a majority of Democratic voters believe that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

The poll, which was conducted among 1,265 possible voters over the span of a week in April, found that almost four in 10 likely voters, as well as more than half of all Democrats, believe that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

The Israel-Hamas war, which was sparked by Hamas's October 7 massacre in southern Israel, resulted in IDF operations inside the Gaza Strip in an attempt to dismantle Hamas's hold over the Strip and free the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

More than half a year into the war, Data for Progress and Zeteo's poll has revealed that American voters are split on Israel's actions in Gaza, including whether IDF operations constitute genocide. The poll says that 39% believe that the IDF's actions constitute genocide against Palestinians, while 38% say that it isn't. However, results differ vastly among Democrats, with 56% saying that Israel is committing genocide.

The poll also revealed generational and ethnic divisions among voters, with the younger population (under 45) at 55% and relatively strong among Black (44%) and Latino (48%) voters thinking that Israel is committing genocide.

When asked about a ceasefire, 70% of those polled believe there needs to be an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, with 83% of Democrats holding that belief and 56% of Republicans saying they support a ceasefire.

Regarding the hostages held by Hamas, a majority of voters, 53%, believe that Israel's military campaign has been ineffective in freeing the hostages.

Additionally, more than a third of voters support limiting US arms sales to Israel, including a plurality of voters opposing Congress's recent decision to pledge $4 billion in missile defense systems to Israel. A majority, at 54%, support suspending all US arms to Israel as long as Israel blocks US humanitarian aid going into Gaza.

Finally, regarding the recent pro-Palestinian protests and encampments across US campuses, voters remain split on their approval of the demonstrations. According to the poll, 40% approve, while 42% disapprove of the protests. A majority of Democrats (55%) and younger demographics (59%) take a free-speech approach on the issue.

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Most Democrats believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza - poll - The Jerusalem Post

Marylands Democratic primary is the most expensive in the country, thanks almost entirely to Trone; hes sunk $61.8 million into this race, after spending tens of millions of dollars on four House campaigns, blanketing airwaves and YouTube with his Horatio Alger story. Alsobrooks, who went on the air in February, has spent a tenth as much.

At a Tuesday night rally at Silver Springs AFI movie theater, where California Rep. Adam Schiff praised Trones understanding of our economy and ability to defend our democracy, Trones ads played on the big screen while a few dozen voters took their seats so many that over 15 minutes of I approved this message-ing, no ad was played twice.

Yet the race remains close. Its final weeks have become an increasingly personal, tense contest between candidates battling over intertwined issues around race and who is best positioned to defend what until recently had been considered a safe seat.

Republicans havent won here since 1980, and the Donald Trump-led GOP is practically designed to lose in Maryland: Montgomery and Prince Georges counties, D.C. suburbs that cast nearly a million votes in 2020, gave less than 150,000 of them to Trump.

But the surprise decision by popular former Gov. Larry Hogan, a moderate anti-Trump Republican, has turned the general into a tossup. For the Democrats, thats exponentially increased the stakes of their primary.

Hogans entrance ended our complacency about the fall election, said Rep. Jamie Raskin, who has endorsed Alsobrooks, and beat Trone in 2016 to win his safe Montgomery County seat. (Trone got to Congress by spending $18 million in the neighboring, competitive 8th District.)

Since Hogans entrance in February, Trone has made his personal fortune a centerpiece of his pitch: If he wins the nomination, Democrats wont have to spend cash in Maryland that theyd earmarked for Ohio, Montana, or other competitive states.

It will give them a lot more flexibility to spend money elsewhere, Trone told Semafor on Tuesday. Im sure that will appeal to Leader Schumer.

The deep-pockets argument, along with Trones years of party donations and go-everywhere campaigning, helped him win over many Democrats who repeat his argument: He has more relevant experience than Alsobrooks, and he can win. But most of the states congressional delegation has stuck with Alsobrooks, confident that Hogans support will fade by November and wary of once again telling Black voters who make up a third of the states electorate that its not their turn yet.

Maryland Democrats previously rejected Black candidates when Senate seats opened up 2006 and 2016 agonizing about it the whole time, then winning the general anyway. Neither of those races divided elected Democrats like this; Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen, the winners in those years, had most of the establishment behind them. But Gov. Wes Moore, the first Black Marylander to hold that office, endorsed Alsobrooks six months ago; Adrienne Jones, the first Black female state House Speaker, beat him to it.

Moore told Semafor that the electability concerns about Alsobrooks, who has out-raised Hogan, were misplaced: Regardless of what happens in a primary, every single one of us are going to be all in to make sure that our nominee wins the race.

Alsobrooks goes further, suggesting she may be better positioned to unite the partys diverse wings come the general.

Whats going to be needed is a coalition of people from all backgrounds who will come together to defeat Larry Hogan, Alsobrooks told Semafor after stopping to talk to voters at an early voting site in Bowie. Im the person who has the experience of doing that. The evidence that Trones wealth wasnt insurance against a Hogan win, she said, was that Trone had outspent her all year, and shed closed the gap.

Trone, for his part, has consistently highlighted support from non-white and female Democrats in his omnipresent TV spots; Black men whod benefited from his investments in criminal justice reform, women of all races who were helped by his support for family planning. He could even get to the county executives left on some issues. Trone had always opposed the death penalty; Alsobrooks would only say, passively, that Maryland had banned it.

The candidates didnt disagree on much else, so Alsobrookss supporters homed in on how Trone and his surrogates talked. In March, after Prince Georges County Council Member Ed Burroughs said in one Trone ad that the Senate was not a job for people with training wheels, more than 600 Black women co-signed a letter that denounced its tones of misogyny and racism.

That comment was struck from the ad, but the attention hurt Trone. In Silver Spring, pressed on the training wheels quote, Trone noted that he didnt say it in the ad; when a reporter pointed out that Trone had used the same phrase, the candidate said that we stand by the fact that Burroughs made the comment, and, frankly, she doesnt have the experience at the federal level. What mattered, he explained, was what he was going to do with the Senate seat.

I have supported wonderful women and diverse candidates all over this country, and will continue to do so, Trone said. But what the voters keep saying, time and time again, is look at what I can do for you.

But as early voting wrapped up, Trones non-white surrogates kept saying what hed been told not to say: Alsobrooks wasnt ready for the job, or sensitive enough to other non-white Democrats. We need someone who can be effective from day one, Prince Georges County States Attorney Aisha Braveboy said on Thursday, when pro-Trone Democrats gathered at a union hall to support him to argue that voters needed to look past the candidates race.

I wouldnt vote for Candace Owens, no matter what she was running for, said Krystal Oriadha, another county council member whod rejected Alsobrooks. The idea that we just have to vote for someone because of their gender, because of their color, negating any other issues, is insulting to us as a community. (Owens is a high-profile Black conservative pundit.)

On the stump, Alsobrooks didnt lead with her race or gender and didnt really need to. She would certainly make history, but more importantly, she will make a difference, Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock told reporters after a meeting with the candidate and Black pastors, redirecting a question about race to talk about the investments made by the Democratic Senate.

My basic thought is positive politics, high road politics is what wins in Maryland, Raskin said, asked about the challenges of facing the self-funding Trone. Ive told that to all the candidates. I think that that is the way to go.

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Democrats never expected this Senate primary to have such high stakes - Semafor