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In separate interviews on Sunday, the two Democratic candidates for US Senate in Georgia said their runoff elections in January would be decisive for Americas future.

If Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock beat their Republican incumbent opponents, Democrats will regain control of the Senate, Kamala Harris serving as a tie-breaking vice-president in a chamber split 50-50. Though precarious, that would give Joe Biden greater hope of implementing his legislative agenda.

Democrats hold the US House but fear a Republican-controlled Senate would hamper everything from a nationwide Covid-19 response to economic stimulus initiatives. Republicans fear losing a vital foothold on Capitol Hill. As a result, tens of millions of dollars are flowing into Georgia, where Ossoff will face David Perdue and Warnock will face Kelly Loeffler in the 5 January runoffs, necessitated by no candidate receiving more than 50% of the vote this month.

What were feeling for the first time in four years is hope

Trump is leaving, whether he knows it or not, Ossoff told ABCs This Week, referring to the presidents refusal to concede defeat by Biden. And the question now is how were going to contain this pandemic which is raging out of control, which is spreading at an accelerating rate.

Ossoff won 48% of the vote to Perdues 49.7%. The remainder went to a Libertarian who is now out of the race.

There are hundreds of thousands of lives hanging in the balance, there are millions of jobs and homes and livelihoods hanging in the balance, Ossoff said. And thats why its so important to win these two Senate races so that the incoming presidential administration can govern, can lead, can enact the solutions necessary to contain this virus and invest in economic recovery.

Georgia went to Biden in the presidential election, a recount unlikely to change the result. Crediting former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams organizing efforts for shifting Georgias vote no Democratic presidential candidate had won the state since 1996 Ossoff said: What were feeling for the first time in four years is hope.

With Trump departing, we have the opportunity to define the next chapter in American history, to lead out of this crisis. But only by winning these Senate seats.

The GOP at the national level has no leader, has no message and has no vision other than stopping Joe Biden. But we are in a crisis, we need leadership, we need to make sure that Joe Biden can govern and this administration is successful.

This is a Georgia race. And Im Georgia

Warnock, a pastor, won 33% of the vote over Loefflers 26%, with the rest going to other candidates including Doug Collins, a Republican US representative. In total, Democratic candidates polled 35.7% and Republicans 45.8%. Warnock told CNNs State of the Union that did not worry him.

I finished first, handily, far ahead of a candidate whos the wealthiest member of Congress, who poured millions of dollars into this race, he said.

And we finished in a strong position. Theres no question in my mind that as Georgians hear about my commitment to access to affordable healthcare, the dignity of work, the work Ive been doing for years standing up for ordinary people, we will prevail come 5 January.

The CNN host Jake Tapper pointed out that Republicans have tried to link Warnock to Democrats in Washington, to cast him as a dangerous radical.

Listen, Warnock said. This is a Georgia race. And Im Georgia. I grew up in Savannah, Georgia, my church is in Atlanta. Im pastor of the spiritual home of Martin Luther King Jr.

I grew up in public housing, one of 12 children in my family. Im number 11. And the first graduate of a four-year college in my family. I know personally the importance of good federal policy, combined with personal responsibility, work, grit and determination. Thats the reason Im able to run for the United States Senate. I am an iteration of the American dream.

Im running for the Senate because that promise is slipping away from far too many people. Thats what this race is about and thats what I can take, I will continue to lift up. Even as I move across the great state of Georgia, people are responding to that message.

See the article here:
Democratic candidates say Georgia Senate elections will be decisive for US - The Guardian

Republicans headed into Election Day were told by Democrats, the media, and some of their own that the political sky was falling on them and it would be devastating. The once-in-a-century global pandemic, government-imposed economic stifling, post-George Floyd social upheaval, and a president many find personally distasteful would force a reckoning of historic proportions. The Republican Party was about to drown with Trump tied around its neck.

It did not happen.

Sure, in Colorado, the most productive, bi-partisan senator in the U.S. lost by a large margin to a candidate who I just cannot go there but you get the point. POTUS got crushed here. But beyond those two high-profile, Trump-related races, everything else remained remarkably status quo.

Outside of Colorado, the news for Republicans was overwhelmingly positive. The Blue Wave redux appears to have only dampened Republican socks.

The polls relied upon by the mainstream pundits said that the Democrats would take control of the U.S. Senate from Republicans, who held a 53-45 advantage (+2 Independents who caucus with the Dems) on election night. It was a lock. Then, the ballots were counted. It was devastating. For the Democrats. Presuming both Georgia seats stay Republican in January 2021 a safe bet GOP control of the Senate will have been whittled down all the way to52-46 (+2).

Democrats entered election night with a 232-197 advantage in the House of Representatives. The consensus from mainstream talking heads was that Republicans, saddled with Trumps claimed toxicity, would lose a bunch more seats. The Economist predicted twelve. Fivethirtyeight said seven. The opposite happened. While some races remain too close to call, it appears that the Dems 35 seat advantage may be reduced to as little as 14, the smallest majority in 18 years.

The GOP defied expectations by continuing to grow its tent. In the centenary year for womens suffrage in America, thirteen non-incumbent women became newly elected House Republicans. One of them is Coloradan Lauren Boebert, a 33-year-old entrepreneur with four school-aged children, who defeated a 70-year-old, career academician and politician. Congresswoman-elect Boebert will be the first woman to represent our 3rd Congressional District, the largest district in Colorado and one of the largest in America.

The poor showing by Dems on election night has already led to infighting. Self-described moderate (what does that even mean anymore?) Dem members blame progressives for losses during a period they projected to expand their dominance, citing 130 primary battles and the negative impact at the polls of corrosive terms like socialism and defund the police. This debate is only going to get hotter over the next two years. Fire up the popcorn.

There are two big reasons to bet that the GOP will expand their control of the U.S. Senate and take back the House in two years: mid-term elections in 2022 and redistricting.

In the modern era, on average, the presidents party has suffered a loss of 30 seats in Congress. Losses have been significantly larger for first-term, mid-term Democrat presidents, such as LBJ (47 House, 4 Senate), Clinton (52 House, 2 Senate), and Obama (63 House, 6 Senate). The most obvious explanation is the over-reach government engages in when it is controlled by a single party (see Colorado). Here, Biden may actually benefit from the fact that he likely will be the first Democrat president since the late 1800s to enter office without full control of Congress. He can thank Mitch McConnell for that.

Redistricting will likely cost Democrats even more seats over the next decade. The 2020 Census will result in the redrawing of congressional and state legislative boundaries across the country, and by legislatures in 31 states (not Colorado). To influence that result, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spent $50 million (five times its 2010 amount) to flip thirteen targeted legislative chambers, such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Candidates and outside groups spent an estimated half of a billion dollars to flip red chambers to blue. The result: total failure. Not only did the GOP hold onto every chamber it had going into election night, it flipped both chambers in New Hampshire and took back the governorship in Montana. Republicans will now draw lines for 175 congressional districts, only 47 for the Dems.

Even here, in Colorado, despite an enormous spending advantage, the Dems gained exactly zero seats in the state House and merely one seat in the state Senate. Republicans are poised to reclaim the upper chamber two years from now by winning only three newly redistricted seats during the mid-terms.

The election for the top of the ticket bore out that Colorado is blue, for now. But the 2022 election cycle has already begun and there is plenty to turn GOP frowns (and Dem majorities in Colorado) upside down.

George Brauchler is a non-smoking suburban father of four public school-attending children who owns no cows, commercial property or robots, and who only gambles by driving on our roads. He currently serves as district attorney for the 18th Judicial District.

Read the original:
Brauchler: Democrats predicted a wave in Colorado but the tide barely dampened Republicans socks on Election Day - Greeley Tribune

Democrats face a huge challenge in the next administration. A survey with 1,000 respondents conducted by our firm after the election suggests that Democrats are viewed as overly liberal out of touch, while Republicans are viewed as closer to where voters remain on national issues.

The election results and our findings showed that it was the movement for Democrats to the left which curbed their support. It is a potential problem moving forward for the party both in governing and in the midterms. Over 60 percent of respondents took the victory for Joe BidenJoe BidenViolence erupts between counter-protestors, Trump supporters following DC rally Biden considering King for director of national intelligence: report Here are the 17 GOP women newly elected to the House this year MORE as a mandate for centrism, compared with less than 30 percent who took it as a mandate to pursue a progressive agenda. Even stronger majorities of Republicans and independents believe that his win is a mandate for centrism.

While Biden focused on unity for his victory remarks, it is not certain that his team and the party have shifted their narrative. His deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield made a statement to the opposite effect when she recently declared that Biden will deliver on his promise to pursue the incredibly progressive agenda. Yet our survey found almost 40 percent of voters believe the agenda of Democrats is overly liberal, and less than 30 percent think the agenda of Republicans is the opposite.

Party identification in our survey and for national polls is evenly split, but an ideological balance of most voters tilts conservative. A plurality in our respondents identified as conservative, plus a similar share identified as moderate. Still less than a fourth of our respondents identified as liberal. They also want the candidates who won this year to pursue policies that lean right rather than policies that lean left while they serve.

These conclusions are no surprise with the lower than predicted election results of Democrats. Contrary to the election forecasts, which showed a key advantage for Democrats, the Senate is likely to remain divided with perhaps a narrow advantage for Republicans. Democrats also dealt with losses in the House, including seats believed to be secured.

Despite the challenges that face Donald Trump, the relative weakness for Democrats and their movement to the left were not accounted for by the polls. There was no blue wave for the down ballot races, and our findings denote that Trump could have won a second term if not for the pandemic and downturn. Democrats were hurt by the party associations with liberal attitudes. By a margin of over 10 points, respondents said the movement to defund the police had them less likely to back Democrats.

Around 70 percent of our respondents concur with the statements made by moderate Democrats, such as Representative Abigail Spanberger and former Senator Claire McCaskill, who talk about this need for Democrats to head back to kitchen table issues and focus on helping people take care of their families. Less than half of our respondents also concur that Democrats must deliver the liberal causes and social issues.

So Democrats need to recreate themselves as the party of working people and return to an centrist agenda of economic growth. The warnings above will likely come to fruition if not. Midterms tend to be weak for the party of the president. Gallup has found that since the 1940s, the average losses in midterms with the party of the president are 25 House seats.

It is our hope that Democrats can make efforts to return to the center with the next administration. Biden cannot enter office with the election results viewed as a full ratification of the party agenda. Instead, it is a mandate to work across the aisle to achieve compromises on the stimulus deal, health care reform, and a new national response to the coronavirus.

Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York.

Here is the original post:
Democrats should return to the center under helm of Joe Biden | TheHill - The Hill

Over the next couple months, Joe Biden needs to put together a team to help him rebuild a shattered economy, fight a global pandemic and recover from one of the most polarizing elections in U.S. history. Sounds easy, right? POLITICO's Megan Cassella breaks down who is in contention for some of the toughest jobs in the nation.

A dozen races remain uncalled, and Democrats caution they wont have all the answers for months. But many in the party are warning that the biggest priority for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee must be overhauling its message. They say it needs to craft a proactive campaign that counters GOP attacks on everything from Medicare for All to fracking if they have any hopes of keeping their majority in 2022.

"There were ads being run all over the country about socialism and about the Green New Deal and in some parts of the country that didnt help, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) said in an interview. "I think it would be irresponsible for a person in our family in the Democratic Caucus family who is concerned about it not to mention it."

Others were more blunt: "From my standpoint, as a moderate Democrat ... its crystal clear we need a different message than what weve been having, added Rep. Kurt Schrader (Ore.).

Top Democrats had braced for the GOP police-focused ads. DCCC polled the issue over the summer as nationwide protests over social justice began dominating the headlines, finding it incredibly damaging, according to a Democratic strategist familiar with the data.

Shortly after, DCCC partnered with the Congressional Black Caucus political arm to attempt to produce a campaign message that addressed the systemic inequalities without handing the GOP a win on the policing debate. They created some ads, including ones focused on policing reform that aired in the Black community in seats held by vulnerable Democrats.

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Black caucuses campaign arm, CBC PAC, said its clear the party came up short. He added that its urgent for the party to quickly recalibrate if Democrats want any hope of winning two longshot Senate runoffs in Georgia in January, their only chance at taking control of the upper chamber.

We want the caucus to be accurately depicted. And if you look at the Democratic Caucus, if youre going to accurately depict it unlike what Republicans did were not for defunding the police and were not socialists, Meeks said. Were going to be doing all that we can to make sure that we win in Georgia.

He added that he worked closely with DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos on the issue and has no complaints about her leadership despite the campaign arm failing to counter Republicans in several key races.

Most endangered Democrats struggled to counter the flood of GOP ads on the issue: Republicans aired roughly 70 different broadcast ads that mentioned defund the police, according to data from Advertising Analytics, a media tracking firm.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC, said they saw the early potential of those hits, making them at least somewhat confident they could help overcome the sheer amount of campaign cash that Democrats had.

Democrat advertising barely uttered a word besides Donald Trump and preexisting conditions and these were messages that just did not move voters down-ticket, said CLF President Dan Conston. We spent the better part of a year testing the most effective ways to lay out the Democrats' economic agenda as well as their most radical ideas, when 'defund the police' came up as a core issue.

In a Staten Island-based seat with a large population of cops and firefighters, CLF saw Democratic Rep. Max Roses image rating drop 21 points in the months after they began airing defund the police spots.

Republicans were relentless as they aired 30-second attack ads that swarmed vulnerable incumbents. In red-leaning districts, such as Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi's (D-N.Y.) in upstate New York, the defund the police ads emphasized violent protestors and looters. In a purple suburban Philadelphia seat held by GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who won reelection, the ads featured a mom who worried a smaller police budget would make her family less safe from robbers.

Democrats tried repeatedly to combat these law-and-order attacks. Some, like Rose, an Army veteran, vowed in a TV ad never to defund law enforcement. And money was not the issue Democratic candidates were outspending their GOP opponents by a nearly 2:1 ratio in the final weeks. Yet they struggled to overcome the hits.

Rose who conceded on Thursday is among the nine Democratic incumbents who lost so far. As of Thursday, the House GOP was poised to gain seven seats.

Tracking the appointments, the people and the power centers of the next administration.

Republicans unexpected surge also exposed polling weaknesses in unexpected places, like districts in south Florida and Orange County in California that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. It also sabotaged Democratic hopes of flipping as many as 10 seats in Texas, where the campaign arm had invested heavily and even opened an outpost in Austin.

Bustos, who announced this week she would not seek reelection as chair, has defended the campaign arm in the days since the election. Several of her allies have argued that the polling flub was impossible to predict.

Bustos said DCCC did spot some trouble spots for their incumbents before it was too late. The committee helped Reps. Haley Stevens in Michigan, Susie Lee of Nevada and Peter DeFazio in Oregon, and all three won reelection.

When we saw a race slipping late, we made quick, aggressive investments in the final stretch that helped us win some very tight races, Bustos told members on a call this week.

Still, some Democrats said there were signs from vulnerable districts that the party did ignore.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) said her biggest takeaway from the GOPs upset in South Florida, where two incumbents were unseated, is that Democrats failed to take her warning seriously in early 2019 that GOP attacks on socialism were resonating with her home states expat community, including many Cubans and Venezuelans who fled communist regimes decades earlier.

I was constantly ringing the bell on this, said Murphy, whose family was rescued by the U.S. Navy as they fled communist-led Vietnam in the late 1970s. Trump too outperformed among Latinos in Southern Florida.

I'm not sure that as a party we took that attack head on, and provided our counter narrative, Murphy said. Its not enough to say what youre not, you have to define what you are. And we have to define it in a way that doesnt scare the American people.

But other Democrats argue that the overall strategy and message mattered less than the GOPs turnout. Vulnerable incumbents were suddenly and unexpectedly forced to outperform Biden by double-digits, and many simply couldnt, showing the strength and popularity of Trump.

Expectations did get high. But if were being honest, it wasn't just expectations. We all missed something in our analytics and our polling data, and we really have to take a deep objective look at what were missing, said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), chairman of the moderate New Dems Action Fund. Weve got to break the party down and rebuild what our brand is.

Excerpt from:
Inside the House Democrats post-election reckoning - POLITICO

Democratic and Republican candidates and elected officials in the 15th Legislative District said theyre optimistic about their parties futures in the wake of this years election results.

The districts boundaries were redrawn in 2011, creating the states first majority Latino district. It covers the eastern part of Yakima County, taking in part of Selah and Yakima and winding into the Lower Valley, including Toppenish, Sunnyside, Grandview and part of Wapato.

Election results lately have shown a pretty consistent conservative-liberal split, with about 60% of votes cast for Republican candidates compared to about 40% for Democrats.

About 12,000 more people voted in the District 15 House races in 2020 compared with 2018. The vote splits for Republicans and Democrats were nearly identical.

Republican Jeremie Dufault of Selah, recently re-elected to his second term for the districts Position 2 House seat, said his values, and the values of the larger Republican Party, resonate with the districts Latino voters.

I am a family-oriented, pro-life, Catholic entrepreneur who believes in smaller and smarter government, Dufault said. I believe strongly in the value of education and the need to work hard and to take personal responsibility for your actions. Those values put me squarely in line with most of my constituents, including Latinos.

Dufault defeated Democratic challenger A.J. Cooper with 59% of votes to Coopers 41%. In 2018, Dufault received 60% of votes to Coopers 39%. About 45,890 people voted for the two candidates this year in the race, compared with 33,545 total votes in 2018.

This year was an outlier year in many races, but Republican candidates continued to do well in the 15th District, Dufault said. I am grateful to my constituents for giving me more votes than any other state legislative candidate has ever received in the current 15th District.

Cooper said the 15th Districts Democrats are a resilient group, ready to bounce back.

Cooper also noted that the Yakama Nation is split into two different legislative districts, as is the city of Yakima. Selah also is split, with part of the community falling into the 13th District with Ellensburg and Moses Lake.

Position 1

Longtime Republican state Rep. Bruce Chandler of Granger, recently re-elected to Position 1, also faced off against the same challenger, Jack McEntire of Selah, from 2018. Chandler received 58% of votes this year compared to about 60% in the previous election cycle.

McEntire said he believes the majority of District 15 residents are Democrats, but that lower percentages register and vote. He sees the Democratic foothold growing as more people realize the importance of voting and turn out to elections.

The working person is the majority, he said, and the Democratic Party is poised to serve the working person. People are gravitating toward candidates that show respect to others, respect the norms and traditions of governance, and health care, and this is an issue Democrats are prepared to handle.

McEntire also predicted Republicans will remain a minority of representation in Olympia, and anticipated people who want Central Washington concerns heard in the state Capitol will see a need for a Democratic representative.

More and more people are feeling empowered to get out there and vote, believing that their voices matter, he said.

Chandler agreed with Dufault, saying the majority of Yakima voters still staunchly support Republican values.

Historically the Yakima Valley was an area where people came to start a new life or redeem their lives, he said. There are still high expectations for families, opportunities, and the Valley being a good place to live, and a lot of interest in the conservative values and the priorities of Republicans.

Issues

District 15 candidates had different takeaways as well from this years election results about voter values.

Cooper noted Democratic candidates pushed for keeping communities safe and healthy during the pandemic, while supporting small businesses and those who had lost their jobs or health care. The party also focused on other important issues, such as water conservation and clean water, education, livable wages, accessible health care and ensuring that everyone, including communities of color and LGBTQ individuals, were included and kept safe, she added.

Dufault said a major takeaway was that Yakima County voters showed they wont stand for new taxes. While Democrats in Seattle have started conversations about higher property, business and gas taxes as well as an income tax, Dufault said election results from Yakima County show where voters priorities lie.

When given the chance to vote directly on taxes, local and even statewide voters consistently point out that Olympia has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, he said.

For McEntire, who has a degree in microbiology and immunology from the University of Washington, debates locally and nationwide about COVID-19 and climate change highlighted that the Democratic Party stands behind science, a value he said is resonating with increasing numbers of voters.

Chandler said agriculture will remain a cornerstone and economic driver, as will the Yakima airport and employment through Hanford.

See original here:
Democrats, Republicans both see bright future for their parties in District 15 - Yakima Herald-Republic