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Keep it simple.

With Republicans already running shadow campaigns for 2020, Democrats need to settle on the messages theyll use to compete withDonald Trump and his party in the upcoming elections. And their most effective narratives wont be pretty.

True, President Trump has given Democrats plenty of cause for complaint, but that itself is a danger to the party. The risk is that, with so many issues and scandals to talk about, Democrats will end up with a fractured message.

Research shows that voters prefer simplicity. A 2014 study by researchers at Georgetown University and the University of California, Los Angeles found that people find information about politicians more persuasivewhen theyre presented with just three claims. When given more messages, they become moreskeptical -- because they begin to realize theyre being pushed in one direction.

Thats why, to take Congress and the White House back, Democrats need to choose three key points and stick to them.

And those points need to seed dissatisfaction with Trump. Voters vote retrospectively, says my colleague Meena Bose, director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency at Hofstra University. If things are going well, they tend to stick with the incumbent and if theyre going badly, they tend to vote against the incumbent.

But voters perceptions of the economy can be more important than reality. For example, one study concluded that George H.W. Bush lost his 1992 bid for re-election because of negative media coverage of the economy -- which was actually improving. This leaves Democrats an important opportunity to shape the national conversation around Trumps economic record -- especially the fact that Americans incomes are barely rising.

Stephanie Cutter, deputy campaign manager for Barack Obama in 2012, says the party needs to convey that Hes giving you a raw deal and we can do better, basically.

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Another reason Democrats should go negative is that it works: Research shows that negative information about candidates affectsvoters judgments more than positive information. (This could be because paying attention to threatsoffered an evolutionary advantage to ourour ancestors, researchers say.) It takes at least three positive messages to undo the damage done by one negative message, according to Vincent Covello, director of the Center for Risk Communication, a strategic communications consultancy.

The best way for Democrats to go negative will be to convince voters that Trump doesnt care about them. Former Vermont governor and presidential candidate Howard Dean says the most important question asked in polls is whether a candidate cares about people like me. People vote on emotion, he says.

So here are three key messages Democrats could rally around to convince voters that Trump doesnt care about them:

Even if Trump ultimately abandons his campaign promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, his threat to let it implode will remain a huge risk for millions of Americans. The Trump administration agreed this week to make the subsidy payment required by the government under the law. But Trump had previously indicated he might not do so and hasnt disavowed withholding future payments, which would leave about 16 millionwithout insurers in the marketplace and cause premiums to soar for many, according to the CBO.

What people care about is can they afford things, can they pay the bills, Cutter says. Those are the core things at the heart of most elections. Indeed, according to Texas A&M professor B. Dan Wood, author of The Politics of Economic Leadership: The Causes and Consequences of Presidential Rhetoric, since the Gallup poll was established in 1946, Americans have typically said that the economy is the most important problem the country faces.

Indeed, last month, a poll by PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist College found that 70 percent of Americans believe civility has declined since Trump became president. And the exodus of CEOs from Trumps business advisory councils this past week over his response to the attack on anti-hate protesters in Charlottesville offers just another example of how his divisiveness has turned supporters into critics.

With so many questions and scandals surrounding Trump, the biggest threat facing the opposition party right now is the embarrassment of riches available for criticizing the president. Democrats need to stay disciplined and focus on the few messages that will actually move voters in the next election.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story: Kara Alaimo at kara.s.alaimo@hofstra.edu

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3 Messages Would Help Democrats Beat Trump - Bloomberg

These five men had two things in commonall had a penchant for racism to one degree or another, and all were Democrats.

Some of the memorials to them are monuments, some are groves, others are highways, bridges, colleges, and even cemeteries. Of course, the cemeteries ought not be disturbed, but they should be renamed if the Democrats are serious about rooting out the vestiges of racism.

What follows is a short description of each of the Democrats and the memorials and/or namesakes in their honor:

President Andrew JohnsonAbraham Lincoln chose Andrew Johnson as his running mate in 1864 because Lincolns reelection hopes hinged on being able to attract some Democrat voters to his side. Lincoln was a Republican, Johnson a Democrat. The plan worked and Lincoln was reelected. However, following Lincolns assassination the oversight of post-Civil War policy for the South fell to Johnson, who believed the South ought to be able to make its own course. During his administration, post-Civil War Democrats enacted the Black Codes in the South, which were precursors to the Jim Crow laws they would implement in the 20th century. The Black Codes served to prevent freed slaves from actually experiencing the fullness of freedom. Johnson is honored with The Andrew Johnson National Historic Site and National CemeteryinGreenville, Tennessee.

President Woodrow WilsonPresident Woodrow Wilson appeared tolerable of blacks and interested in their plight when running for election, but he made little effort to help better the condition of blacks as the 20th century hit its second decade. In fact, in The Warrior and the Priest, John Milton Cooper, Jr., wrote, Wilson believed blacks were not innately inferior to whites and would, in two or three centuries, achieve a measure of economic and political, if not social, equality in America. However, Cooper explained that these views had little impact on Wilsons behavior as president of Princeton, a position he held prior to being President of the United States. At Princeton, Wilson maintained the universitys long-standing ban on admitting blacks and as President of the U.S. he sanctioned attempts to instill segregation into federal departments. Princeton honors Wilson with a college namedThe Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

PresidentFranklin Delano RooseveltFDR ordered the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II. In other words, Japanese Americans were rounded up and held in captivity. History.com reports that FDR instituted internment by [signing] the War Departments blanket Executive Order 9066 in February 1942. FDR is honored with theFranklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial in Washington DC.

President Lyndon Baines JohnsonMSNBC put it bluntly, Lyndon Johnson said the [n-word] a lot. While discussing civil rights legislation with men like Mississippi Democrat James Eastland, who committed most of his life to defending white supremacy, [LBJd] simply call it the [n-word] bill.' LBJ is honored with the Lyndon Baines Johnson Memorial Grove on the Potomac.

Sen. Robert C. ByrdPrior to being a Democrat Senator in West Virginia, Byrd was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. When Byrd died in 2010, the Washington Post printed an eulogy which said, in part, As a young man, Mr. Byrd was an exalted cyclops of the Ku Klux Klan. Although he apologized numerous times for what he considered a youthful indiscretion, his early votes in Congress notably afilibusteragainst the 1964 Civil Rights Act reflected racially separatist views. On June 26, 2010, the Cumberland Times-News reported that Byrd was honored by at least eight highways and/or bridges throughout West Virginia. The Times-News listed the memorials as the Robert C. Byrd Expressway and Robert C. Byrd Bridge in Ohio County; Robert C. Byrd Highway (Corridor H); Robert C. Byrd Appalachian Highway System (also Corridor H); Robert C. Byrd Appalachian Highway System (Corridor G/U.S. 119); Robert C. Byrd Bridge in Huntington; Robert C. Byrd Interchange at Birch River; [and the] Robert C. Byrd Appalachian Highway System (Corridor L/I-77).

If Democrats are serious about weeding out monuments tied to racist history, the 12monuments which honor the above mentioned Democrats ought to be first on the list.

AWR Hawkins is the Second Amendment columnist for Breitbart News and host ofBullets with AWR Hawkins, a Breitbart News podcast. He is also the political analyst for Armed American Radio. Follow him on Twitter:@AWRHawkins. Reach him directly at awrhawkins@breitbart.com

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Twelve Memorials That Must Be Removed If Democrats Are ...

Steve Bannon, chief strategist to President Donald Trump, says Democrats dont understand Trumps appeal.

Donald Trumps chief strategist Steve Bannon says Democrats just dont understand the president and theyll pay for it at the polls.

Bannon told the Washington Post that Democrats underestimate Trumps appeal. His remarks which come after separate comments to a liberal magazine that left some colleagues stunned were published amid a furor over Trumps response to the violence in Charlottesville. As the Post writes, Democrats reacted with horror at Trumps enthusiasm for memorials to the Confederacy. But Bannon says Trumps critics have got it all wrong.

This past election, the Democrats used every personal attack, including charges of racism, against President Trump, Bannon wrote in an email to the Post. He then won a landslide victory on a straightforward platform of economic nationalism. As long as the Democrats fail to understand this, they will continue to lose. But leftist elites do not value history, so why would they learn from history?

Also read: Trump Today: President defends Confederate statues and blasts 2 fellow Republicans

Charlottesville victims mother wont talk to Trump: The mother of the 32-year-old woman killed in Charlottesville says she hasnt spoken to Trump and isnt planning to. I have no interest in speaking to politicians just to hear them say, Im sorry, said Susan Bro, the mother of Heather Heyer, on ABC News. Heyer was killed when a car rammed into a crowd of counterprotesters.

Bro had thanked Trump on Monday in a statement but said she changed her mind after seeing Trump blame both sides for the violence. I saw an actual clip of him at a press conference equating the protesters ... with the KKK and the white supremacists, she said.

Flakes pro-immigrant op-ed: Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican who has clashed with Trump, has a New York Times op-ed on Friday titled We need immigrants with skills. But working hard is a skill. In it, Flake reiterates opposition to a Trump-backed proposal that would cut legal immigration by 50%.

The timing of the piece is noteworthy: Trump is scheduled to appear at a rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, where he may further criticize Flake after calling the senator toxic on Thursday.

Afghanistan meeting at Camp David: Bloomberg reports Trump has summoned his defense and foreign-policy team to Camp David on Friday in an effort to resolve debate about the future of the U.S. role in Afghanistan. Last month, Trump said he wants to know why weve been there for 17 years. Meanwhile, writes Bloomberg, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster are backing a proposal to add U.S. troops focused on training Afghan special forces.

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Bannon says Democrats underestimate Trump's appeal | Charlottesville victim's mother won't talk to Trump - MarketWatch

President Trump tried to change the subject Friday morning using the terror attacks in Barcelona to talk tough about radical Islam and score political points by accusing Democrats of being soft on national security.

Homeland Security and law enforcement are on alert & closely watching for any sign of trouble. Our borders are far tougher than ever before! he wrote in one of a series of tweets at the end of the week in which his defense of white nationalists and the ensuing torrent of criticism dominated the headlines.

The Obstructionist Democrats make Security for our country very difficult. They use the courts and associated delay at all times. Must stop! he added seconds later, though it was unclear what specifically he was referring to.

Radical Islamic Terrorism must be stopped by whatever means necessary! The courts must give us back our protective rights. Have to be tough! he wrote in the third of four tweets on terrorism and national security.

He then said he was heading toward the presidential retreat to continue his working vacation, but would be meeting with unnamed aides.

Heading to Camp David for major meeting on National Security, the Border and the Military (which we are rapidly building to strongest ever), the president wrote.

His comments came a day after a terror attack in Barcelona that killed 13 people, including at least one American.

And they also came a day after he cited a bogus story about Gen. John Pershing ordering the massacre of Muslim insurgents in the Philippines with bullets dipped in pigs blood in the early 20th century an event that historians say never happened.

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Trump uses Barcelona terror attack to bash Democrats - New York Post

Photo: Rich Pedroncelli, Associated Press

State Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton (Orange County), face s a recall election that could cost Democrats their supermajority.

State Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton (Orange County), face s a...

SACRAMENTO Democratic lawmakers battling to hold on to their legislative supermajority earned a major victory Thursday in a decision that critics said damages the reputation of the states campaign finance watchdog commission.

At issue was a long-standing rule limiting how much campaign cash lawmakers can funnel to a colleague in a recall election. Its not a question that comes up often, but its now front and center for state Senate Democrats with one of their own facing a recall that could cost the party its two-thirds supermajority in the upper house.

The state Fair Political Practices Commission voted 3-1 after a tense debate to eliminate a $4,400 cap for transfers from an elected official to a colleague in a recall campaign. That will let Democratic legislators send unlimited cash to rookie state Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton (Orange County).

Republicans mounted a recall campaign in Newmans swing district after he voted in April to raise gas taxes by 12 cents a gallon and increase vehicle registration fees to fund a $52 billion fix for the states roads and bridges. If the Democrats lose the seat, they would control 26 of the Senates 40 votes one shy of two-thirds.

Senate Democrats had urged the Fair Political Practices Commission to lift the limit on campaign cash transfers. The appointed panel voted to make the change effective immediately, over the objection of Chairwoman Jodi Remke and the agencys lawyers.

I believe this is the wrong time and the wrong venue, Remke said, arguing that critics would see it as a political move by an agency that is supposed to be nonpartisan.

Thats exactly how Republican groups painted it.

In all honesty, we have questions about the efficacy of campaign finance limits, said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Our problem is the timing. If they are going to make a rule change, the question is, do you want to do it in a way that is so transparent in helping one candidate and one party? This tarnishes the reputation of the FPPC.

Adding to questions about the timing was the disclosure that leading up to the vote one commissioner communicated frequently with the lawyer for the Senate Democrats who lobbied for the change.

Brian Hatch, a longtime union lobbyist appointed to the commission in March by Secretary of State Alex Padilla, met with Democratic attorney Richard Rios and communicated with him by phone, email and text before the vote, according to documents The Chronicle obtained through a state Public Records Act request. The communication was first reported by the Sacramento Bee.

The records show Hatch worked with Rios behind the scenes. Such meetings and communication are not against commission rules, and Hatch said he strongly supported doing away with the $4,400 cap before he ever talked with Rios.

Jessica Levinson, a Loyola Law School professor and chair of the Los Angeles Ethics Commission, said many people will see the vote as a Democratic power grab.

Josh Newman will get a ton of money poured into his effort to fight off the recall, Levinson said. Lawmakers will start writing checks this afternoon and it will benefit him enormously.

But Levinson said the politics behind the decision arent clear cut.

Two of the commissioners who voted for the change are Republicans Maria Audero and Allison Hayward while the third is Hatch, a Democrat. All three were appointed by Democrats.

Remke, the commissions chair who voted against the change, is a Democrat appointed by Gov. Jerry Brown. One seat on the commission is awaiting an appointment from Attorney General Xavier Becerra.

The three commissioners who supported lifting the cap said they did so because the Fair Political Practices Commission interpreted the law incorrectly 15 years ago when advising candidates about how much they could give during the successful recall of Gov. Gray Davis.

In 2008, five years after that election, Republicans advocated for the cap to be lifted when GOP Sen. Jeff Denham faced a recall that ultimately failed.

Each time, the agency concluded that lawmakers are limited to the $4,400 cap when trying to help a colleague fight a recall. Only lawmakers were subject to that cap, while everyone else could give unlimited amounts.

Just because weve done it wrong for 15 years doesnt make it right, said Audero, an attorney who was appointed by Brown to the commission in 2015. If its wrong, its wrong. And all the things that followed are wrong.

Newman was elected to the Senate in November, beating GOP Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang by 2,498 votes out of 317,962 cast. Democratic lawmakers took another step toward trying to protect him when they passed the states budget in June, inserting a provision that would increase the time it takes to qualify a recall for the ballot.

The change would push a recall vote into next year, when Democrats expect to benefit from a larger turnout. The Howard Jarvis group and others sued to block the move, and a state appeals court put it on hold this week while it studies the measures legality.

Melody Gutierrez is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: mgutierrez@sfchronicle.com. Twitter: @MelodyGutierrez

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State Democrats frantic to save one of their own win key ruling on cash - SFGate