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They may not all be winners, but the sheer number of Democrats running for Congress so far greatly improves the odds of a donkey takeover of the House next year. Photo-Illustration: Daily Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images

The slowly approaching 2018 midterm elections are the first test of the political durability of the GOPs control of Washington, and Democrats are anxiously scanning the horizon for signs of a gathering wave.

Wave elections those that produce a large swing in votes and congressional seats for one party tend to develop slowly. There are a few factors that tell us if the weather is right for a wave election: They most often occur during midterm elections under unpopular presidents, when previous waves have given his party an unnaturally large number of seats. While conditions are right at the moment, its hard to forecast whether theyll still be favorable in November 2018. One important factor, however, can be seen from a considerable distance: Are Democrats running in enough places to make broad gains possible if conditions are ripe?

A new study of campaign-finance filings from the Brookings Institution suggests Democrats are running for the House in unprecedented numbers: There were 78 early Republican challengers who had raised at least $5,000, which presaged the wave election that gave the GOP majority control in 2010. Democrats have 209. And these candidates are spread across the map, too: In 2009, the Republicans had mustered 50 legitimate candidates to challenge Democratic incumbents. The Democrats have doubled that.

Contesting a wide swath of House districts does not itself produce a wave election. But it does mean Democrats will likely be in a position to take full advantage of the opportunities that may exist.

In a discussion of this data, Kyle Kondik notes that at present there are probably not enough highly vulnerable GOP House seats to produce a Democratic takeover, using the House ratings published by Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball:

[T]here are now 26 Republican districts in the competitive Toss-up and Leans categories So Democrats can look at that list and say that if they can win the Toss-ups and Leaners, they will win the House because they need to net just 24 seats to take control. Thats technically true, but, as argued above, its not really realistic: Even in a horrible GOP year, Democrats wont sweep all of the top-tier races.

But while theres probably a ceiling on the share of competitive races the Democrats can win, if a wave is really developing, more and more races will become competitive.

Crystal Ball rates 28 additional GOP-held House seats as Likely Republican. It will not take too many of those moving into the Lean Republican or Toss-Up categories to make a Democratic House a much better bet. And that, in fact, is how waves usually develop: Relatively safe incumbents suddenly are in trouble, and others retire rather than face the ignominy of defeat.

In looking at House race ratings from Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, or other credible handicappers, the thing to watch may be how many vulnerable seats are held by each party (at the moment, only nine Democrats join the 26 Republicans in Crystal Balls list of toss-up or lean contests). If they are overwhelmingly Republicans, a wave could be on the way, particularly if, as seems to be the case, Democrats are conceding less ground and running more candidates than ever.

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Surge in House Democratic Candidates Could Fuel a 2018 Wave Election - New York Magazine

The Democrats message didnt catch on with the voters in the 2016 presidential election so they announced a new slogan that they hope will find favor with voters.

The new branding is A Better Deal. Of course, they hope to offer an agenda with a populist appeal also.

The new branding was unveiled outside the Beltway in Berryville, Va., in a district of one of the GOP House members they hope to defeat next year, Barbara Comstock.

The Democrats reached back to President Franklin D. Roosevelts era to come up with a new branding. In the 1930s, the Democrats under Roosevelt branded the party as the New Deal, which was a series of new government programs aimed to bring the country out of the Great Depression. The public works program and financial reforms did help. The public works program put people to work. There was high unemployment during the Great Depression, along with bank failures and the stock market took a nosedive.

A Better Deal emerged from months of internal debate and an analysis of polling and focus groups by the Democratic leadership. Democrats once considered the party as the one that represented the working class, only to have President Donald Trump take away much of that vote. Trump had greater appeal than Hillary Clinton, who never really had a message that caught on with voters.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on a talk show that in 2016 the Democrats failed to tell the voters what the party stood for. Hes still out of touch with reality. The voters rejected the Democrats because they knew exactly what the party stood for, and they didnt want any more of it. President Barack Obama was viewed as a failure, especially in foreign policy, and his liberal agenda was distasteful to voters. Obamas lead from behind labeled America as weak and indecisive.

The Democrats goals are to raise wages, lower costs for families and give working Americans better skills for the 21st-century economy.

President Trumps Make America Great Again slogan did have appeal. Because people know the Democrats leadership leans too far to the left. A Better Deal is not too exciting.

Read more from the original source:
Democrats' Branding - The Missourian

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) answers questions during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on the result of the Senate vote on health care on July 28. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

Democrats minimized their celebrations on Friday in the wake of the stunning implosion of the GOPs Obamacare repeal efforts, putting the onus on Republicans to embrace bipartisan fixes to the health care law.

After hammering President Donald Trumps party for months over its move to push through an Obamacare repeal with only Republican votes, Democrats pulled back on the criticism and tried to take the high road. Echoing the liberal activists who cheered Sen. John McCains dramatic decision to kill his partys repeal bill, Democrats heaped praise on the Arizona Republican as well as Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) for defying their own leaders and Trump amid intense pressure.

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I dont think its a time for celebration or political victory, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York told reporters.

Schumer hailed McCain as a wonderful man and one of my closest friends in the chamber, and lauded Collins and Murkowski as amazing. He declined to point a finger at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose clandestine strategy to write a bill backfired in spectacular fashion in the wee hours of Friday morning.

People blame Mitch McConnell. I dont think thats fair, Schumer told reporters. I think there were deep, deep fault lines in what our Republican colleagues tried to do.

Schumer declined to discuss when he became aware of McCains decision to bring down the repeal effort he had voted to begin three days earlier. The New York Democrat said only that he and McCain spoke four or five times daily after the Republican returned to the Hill following a diagnosis of advanced brain cancer.

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John McCain is blessed with an internal gyroscope of right and wrong, Schumer said, expressing hope that the magic moment of McCains vote would spark a renewal of bipartisanship on taxes and infrastructure as well as on health care.

Schumer plugged three Democratic ideas to improve the health law, now seven years in effect, called the Affordable Care Act: a reinsurance bill, legislation giving counties without an Obamacare exchange provider access to one, and a measure making permanent the subsidies for individuals of low income that the Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to stop as leverage to cajole lawmakers into a repeal deal.

But McConnell and other GOP leaders view those solutions as little more than Band-Aids on significant problems with the law, casting doubt on the viability of the bipartisanship Schumer touted.

Itll be interesting to see what they suggest as the way forward, McConnell said of Democrats on the floor Friday. For myself, I can say and I bet Im pretty safe in saying for most on this side of the aisle that bailing out insurance companies with no thought of any kind of reform, is not something I want to be part of. And I suspect there are not many folks over here that are interested in that.

In the House, Democrats struck a similar tone at a news conference. The approach was a far cry from their caucus-wide celebration after House Republicans first failure to repeal Obamacare in March.

House Democrats crowded the podium at the time to cheer their GOP colleagues defeat. Pelosi later jumped for joy with liberal protesters on the front lawn of the Capitol, reveling in the victory.

But on Friday, House Democrats were downright subdued.

This isnt a moment for triumphalism, said Massachusetts Rep. Richard Neal, the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee. I think theres enough goodwill from members on both sides to find a path forward and use this as a learning experience."

Pelosi, flanked by top Democrats on the various committees with health care jurisdiction, said there's now a rare window for the two sides to work together on some kind of solution.

Were in the minority, we recognize that. But weve stood ready with ideas and thoughts about how we can mend or improve the Affordable Care Act, New York Rep. Joe Crowley, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters. So its really incumbent upon them to join us and bring us to the table.

Democratic leaders called on Trump to immediately commit to continuing federal subsidies that lower deductibles for enrollees with low incomes.

The Trump administration has toyed with the idea of yanking the payments, known formally as cost-sharing reduction payments, which could trigger immediate chaos in the insurance market and cause premiums to skyrocket.

Only after, they said, can the two parties work together on a long-term solution that further stabilizes the insurance market.

Schumer said he talked Friday morning with Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), whom Ive always gotten along with, about possible next steps on health care. Pelosi said she also had reached out to Ryan, who was attending the GOPs weekly Friday meeting, but had yet to hear back.

I believe we will speak ... soon," she said.

A group of about 40 House Republicans and Democrats have been meeting quietly for the past month to look at ways to stabilize Obamacare. Separately, members of the pro-business New Democrat Coalition presented their own ideas to centrist Tuesday Group Republicans at a meeting of the two groups last week.

Still, Democrats made clear that if their bipartisan overtures fail, Republicans are the ones who will shoulder the blame.

The Republicans hold the White House, the Senate and the House and yet they are finger-pointing to us, said Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who sits in a Trump-won district. Heres the reality of it. We stand here with open arms.

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Democrats curb their enthusiasm over Obamacare repeal fail - Politico

Theodore Roosevelt offered Americans a "Square Deal." His fifth cousin, Franklin D. Roosevelt, gave us "The New Deal." Modern Democrats, who have lost election after election, are now offering the country "A Better Deal."

Speaking in Berryville, Va., a small town that voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump and is represented by a Republican in Congress, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, said, "Too many Americans don't know what we stand for."

Actually, they do know and that's why Democrats don't have the White House, why they lost their congressional majority and the reason they are in the minority in most state legislatures and governorships.

Standing on a platform with other aging, hard-left Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the "Better Deal" sounded like warmed over hash. Here's how The New York Times described it: "The policies combine left-leaning doctrine old and new a $15-an-hour minimum wage, a crusade against monopolies and efforts to lower prescription drug costs elevating issues Democrats expect to animate next year's midterm elections and supplying an answer to critics who accuse them of offering nothing but obstruction."

It would be nice if one of those monopolies targeted by Democrats were the public schools and the increasingly popular school choice option, which The Wall Street Journal recently noted is working to improve grades of especially poor and minority children. Don't look for that to happen, as Democrats aren't about to give up campaign donations from the teachers unions.

Wasn't the expansion of the Medicare program under President George W. Bush to include prescription drug payments supposed to have reduced costs? Not so. When the government gets involved in almost anything from college tuition, to drugs costs go up, not down.

As for the $15-an-hour minimum wage suggestion, we have heard this argument from Democrats in previous calls for its increase. A recent Harvard Business School study of restaurants in San Francisco found that every one-dollar increase in the minimum wage led to a 4 to 10 percent increase in the likelihood of a restaurant closing.

A University of Washington study on the minimum wage law's impact on restaurant workers in Seattle found that while hikes accounted for higher wages, the number of hours low-wage earners were allowed to work declined, producing a net loss in earnings. In other words, the restaurant workers earned more before the government mandated a higher minimum wage. Doesn't anyone in government understand basic economics, not to mention human nature?

Nowhere in the unveiling of their "Better Deal" is there any suggestion by Democrats that low-income Americans can, or should, work for the day when they are independent of government. As the party of government, Democrats have addicted millions of people to the notion that they are owed, or "entitled," to other people's money. Theirs is a party of envy, greed and entitlement, pitting the successful and envy of them against the less successful with little expectation that those at the bottom of the wage scale can, or should, rise from their current circumstances to embrace a better life.

The Times story called the Democrats' announcement "the battle cry of a party in the wilderness." Question: If a Democrat speaks in the wilderness, will anyone hear?

This latest effort to fool voters into believing Democrats have something new to say, or better policies to try, isn't a better deal, it's a raw deal.

Readers may email Cal Thomas at tcaeditors@tribpub.com.

Originally posted here:
Cal Thomas: Democrats' 'better deal' is a raw deal - Baltimore Sun

Without a Republican majority to approve either a comprehensive replacement for the health law or a repeal-only bill, Republican leaders had fallen back on what they called the lowest common denominator. And that failed, too.

Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who cast the decisive vote against the Republican bill around 1:30 on Friday morning, appealed for a bipartisan approach. The vote last night presents the Senate with an opportunity to start fresh, he said.

The Senate has rejected a scaled-down Republican plan to repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act. The 49-to-51 vote was a humiliating setback for the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

The Affordable Care Act was rammed through Congress by Democrats on a strict party-line basis without a single Republican vote, Mr. McCain said, and Republicans must not make the same mistake.

But there was no hint of an olive branch from the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, who this summer suggested that a failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act would force him to work with Mr. Schumer.

Bailing out insurance companies with no thought of any kind of reform is not something I want to be part of, Mr. McConnell said in the early hours of Friday. He suggested that many Democrats secretly wanted a single-payer health care system, with a much larger role for the government.

President Trump reiterated his threat to force the health law to collapse. 3 Republicans and 48 Democrats let the American people down. As I said from the beginning, let ObamaCare implode, then deal. Watch! he wrote on Twitter.

And some Republicans did not sound ready to close the door on repeal, despite the exceedingly slim hopes of reviving, yet again, an effort that on Friday morning seemed doomed.

I am disappointed and frustrated, but we should not give up, said the House speaker, Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin. I encourage the Senate to continue working toward a real solution that keeps our promise.

If a bipartisan coalition can coalesce around changes to the Affordable Care Act, lawmakers see several vehicles to force such proposals to the floors of the House and Senate. Spending bills for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1 will have to be signed, and the popular Childrens Health Insurance Program will need additional funds.

And the ideas are out there. Democrats want to provide money to insurers to reduce out-of-pocket expenses for poorer consumers, a proposal with some Republican backing. An earlier version of the Senate Republican repeal bill would have continued such cost-sharing payments through December 2019.

Two Democratic senators, Thomas R. Carper of Delaware and Tim Kaine of Virginia, have introduced legislation that would authorize the federal government to help pay the largest health insurance claims through a backstop known as reinsurance. That, they argue, could substantially reduce insurance premiums.

An earlier version of the Senate Republican bill included a similar concept, a $182 billion state stability and innovation program. Senators assumed that much of the money would be used for reinsurance arrangements.

Senators of both parties want to help consumers in counties where no insurer offers health plans under the Affordable Care Act marketplace a real possibility next year as insurers retreat from the health laws marketplaces.

Senators Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker of Tennessee, both Republicans, want to allow consumers in such counties to use tax credits to buy insurance outside the public marketplace. Senator Claire McCaskill, Democrat of Missouri, would allow them to obtain coverage through the insurance exchange in the District of Columbia, which serves many members of Congress.

Moderates in both parties have been talking behind the scenes, but it is unclear whether they would need or receive permission from their party leaders to cooperate more. Party leaders are continually weighing the implications of health care for next years midterm elections.

Mr. Alexander, a former governor who is the chairman of the Senate health committee, is seen as a possible deal maker. He intends to hold hearings on possible solutions to the problems plaguing insurance markets in some states including his own.

Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia and another former governor, said he saw the Senates 11 former governors as a potential source of pragmatic bipartisan solutions.

Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, who voted against repeal, said: The A.C.A. is flawed and in portions of the country is near collapse. Rather than engaging in partisan exercises, Republicans and Democrats should work together to address these very serious problems.

But some Republicans may not be so eager to collaborate. Representative Mark Meadows, Republican of North Carolina and the chairman of the hard-line Freedom Caucus, made clear that he was not ready to step away from the repeal effort, and said Mr. Trump shared that view.

Im optimistic we can still get it done, Mr. Meadows said on Fox News. The people are losing faith, but were going to stay in. I can tell you whos staying in: The president is staying in on this fight. Hes going to deliver.

Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, also vowed to keep trying. Being defeated is temporary, he said. Tell you whats permanent. Whats permanent is giving up, and I can tell you Im not going to give up.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut off the payments that compensate insurance companies for reducing out-of-pocket costs for low-income people. He wants to stop these cost-sharing reduction payments, and senior administration officials seriously discussed the idea at recent meeting that ended without a decision.

Administration officials said they fully expected insurers to sue if the government halted the payments, whose legal status is already in doubt because of a lawsuit filed by House Republicans during the Obama administration. Insurers say that cutting off the payments could cause havoc in insurance markets.

In the House, Republican lawmakers pointed fingers at their Senate colleagues on Friday for letting down their voters. For House Republicans who succeeded in passing a repeal bill in May, at no small political peril to some of their vulnerable members the message was clear: We did our job. And the Senate must not give up.

Theyve got to get back at it, said Representative Tom MacArthur of New Jersey.

Some Republicans, left to deal with the fallout of the repeal failure, opted instead for collective self-flagellation. Representative Brian Mast of Florida was asked if lawmakers might face consequences in next years midterm elections if they could not keep their promise to undo the law.

Everybody should, he said. If we dont get the No. 1 job that we said that we would do done, yeah, people should be held accountable.

Then there was the scene at a meeting of Republican House members on Friday morning. According to lawmakers, the gathering included a recitation of lyrics from The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, a Gordon Lightfoot song about a sinking ship, which was likened to the Senates stumble.

Matt Flegenheimer and Avantika Chilkoti contributed reporting.

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A version of this article appears in print on July 29, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: On Health, the Path Forward Is Unclear.

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Lawmakers Have Bipartisan Health Ideas. Now to Persuade Their Leaders ... - New York Times