Democrats Could Take Back The House. Will They Screw It Up? – HuffPost
ALBUQUERQUE Politicians tend to be peppy creatures, but Rep. Ben Ray Lujn (D-N.M.) is an exceptionally upbeat dude, even by the serotonin-rich standards of professional politics.
Lujn, 45, oozes a corny, all-American wholesomeness, with boyish features set beneath a shiny woosh of a haircut its as if a morning zoo radio host ran for Congress. Lujns Hey, how ya doin? is dished out with exuberant regularity. He likes making And how about ... call-outs praising his hard-working staff. His eyes have a tendency to bulge with excitement while he speaks, like a child beholding a ferocious animal at the zoo.Lujns childlike enthusiasm serves him well as he enters his second two-year term as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), tasked with recruiting and supporting Democratic House candidates.
I know Im not the smartest guy in the room, Lujn said with characteristic golly-gee-whiz earnestness during an interview with HuffPost late last month, but Ill listen, and Ill learn and will execute.
Ben Ray Lujn is a nice guy. The thing is, you might come to hate him very soon.
Thanks to Donald Trumps dysfunctional presidency, Democrats are in the strongest position to regain control of the lower chamber since 2006, when disgust over President George W. Bushs mismanagement of Hurricane Katrina relief and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan sent the Republican House majority packing.
However, the passions of the present moment make the 2006 election look like a sleepy race for town comptroller. In this stressful Trumpian period, the United States often feels like a nation of 320 million political strategists, with practically everyone proffering an opinion on how to refine the partys message and direction: Go progressive. Go moderate. Shut up and let Trump sabotage himself.
One thing is certain: For many in and around the party, a blue wave wont do. Unless 2018 unleashes a political tsunami, a significant portion of the Democratic Party will likely be displeased with Lujns leadership come Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2018.
At the very least, Lujn recognizes that its a hard job.
We have a big job to do across the country, said Lujn. We have to go back and earn the trust of the American people where it was lost and in all parts of the country.
The DCCC clearly gets that its an opportunity. Its list of flippable Republican districts inclusion on which can make or break a House campaigns fundraising efforts sports a whopping 80 districts, enough to flip the House three times over. Its an aggressive list one, as Slates Jim Newell noted, has an average Cook Partisan Voting Index of just over R+7, which means an unnamed Republican candidate would enjoy a 7-point advantage over an unnamed Democrat in the district.
The assessment that so many seats are up for grabs alone represents a massive attitude shift from the 2016 cycle, when Lujn wasnt even predicting a Democratic takeover of the House.
We have a unique opportunity to flip control of the House of Representatives in 2018, Lujn wrote in a June memo distributed to party officials and the press. This is about much more than one race: The national environment, unprecedented grassroots energy and impressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run deep into the battlefield leave no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall.
Astrid Riecken for The Washington Post via Getty Images
While a changing of the guard a year from November is far from certain, Lujn and the Democrats are certainly working with a robust class of candidates. Every DCCC chair has their own platonic ideal of a House candidate mayors, veterans, district attorneys, small-business owners and so forth. This cycle, Lujn and the DCCC have settled, per Politico, on female veterans, ideally ones who run or have run a small business.
At first blush, such a combination feels indulgent as backgrounds go, veteran plus anythingis like the cronut of American politics. Such things are highly sought after and dont necessarily grow on trees. While there are certainly untold numbers of Americans with very appealing stories like female veterans with small business experience candidates that check so many boxes dont always choose to run in a meaningful number of districts.
Yet female veteran candidates with notable non-military experience are already materializing a tribute to a motivated base and the efforts of grassroots organizations like Run for Something and VoteVets. Theres former Air Force engineer Chrissy Houlahan in Pennsylvanias 6th Congressional District (she helped start a nonprofit), former Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill in New Jerseys 11th District (a former federal prosecutor) and former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath in Kentuckys 6th District (she graduated from the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destructions Program for Emerging Leaders at the National Defense University, which is just a terrifyingly impressive sequence of words).
This year were fortunate that we have candidates of all backgrounds, said Lujn, drawing particular attention to the fact that here are a lot of veterans, people who have served our country in different capacities.
Lujn added that the DCCC was particularly interested in whether candidates had deep roots in their districts. If they dont trust you, theyre not ever going to put their faith in you, he said.
But not everything about the DCCCs recruitment is going smoothly, to put it mildly.
Just this week, The Hill published an interview with Lujn in which he insisted that the candidates it supports arent subject to a litmus test, which includes their stance on hot-button issues like abortion rights. While those remarks jibed with the longstanding policy of both the DCCC and its Senate counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, it was the first time Lujn was on the record saying as much.
The remarks have prompted a skirmish in progressive circles. Many liberal activists, particularly ones focused on reproductive justice, viewed the continuation of the policy as a disappointment and a missed opportunity to capitalize on the groundswell of progressivism in the Trump era.
Throwing weight behind anti-choice candidates is bad politics that will lead to worse policy, said Mitchell Stille, national campaigns director for the abortion rights advocacy organization NARAL Pro-Choice America, in a statement provided to HuffPost and other news outlets. The idea that jettisoning this issue wins elections for Democrats is folly contradicted by all available data.
On Wednesday, NARAL President Ilyse Hogue and a coalition of progressive advocacy organizations, including Planned Parenthood Action Fund and EMILYs List, published a statement of principles largely in response to the renewed debate over how ideological the DCCC should be. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), a strong supporter of reproductive rights, tweeted, We do not have to make compromises on protecting womens health to win back the House or Senate.
Democratic Party officials, who asked to speak anonymously so they could discuss private conversations, expressed frustration and surprise that the DCCC and DSCC were on the defensive over a long-standing policy. Exacerbating these feelings, the officials said, was the involvement of multiple activists whom the officials claimed had previously signaled their willingness to tolerate, if not endorse, anti-abortion Democrats.
In conversations and in statements, DCCC officials have said that, while their organization plays a large role in candidate recruitment, their priority is to support whichever Democrat the primary voters choose.
This is not about impacting the roster of candidates as much as understanding what our mission and ultimate role and goal is, said DCCC Communications Director Meredith Kelly. As always, primary voters and local groups will ask candidates where they stand on the issues and select their own nominees. Our job is to get as many of those nominees elected to Congress as possible.
Officials anticipate that anti-abortion candidates will make up a negligible part of the Democrats crop of 2018 House candidates and that the organizations approach isnt about abandoning the Democratic principles as its adjusting to the political situation in certain districts.
Dan Sena, the DCCCs executive director, reiterated in an interview with HuffPost that there absolutely is no litmus test of a candidates agenda but insisted that policy aberrations are the exception, not the norm.
In Central Valley, California, where you are on water is more important than where you are on guns. In [Californias]Orange County, where you are on fiscal issues is going to matter more than social issues, said Sena. In Tucson, where you on on immigration and health care is probably more important than where you are on the environment. Its really a balance of where we have certain types of profiles.
Darren McCollester via Getty Images
Regardless of where the Democratic House candidates end up on the ideological spectrum, the Republican Party is hoping to make the midterms a referendum on progressive policies, an argument it plans to take to districts where Trump outperformed expectations in the 2016 election.
Democrats have their heads buried in the sand, hoping to ignore the bitter primaries that are destined to tear their party apart in 2018, said the National Republican Congressional Committees spokesman Jesse Hunt. Its going to be a race to the left, with single-payer health care as the ultimate litmus test.
Lujns own remarks fit with a broader push by the party to focus on less politically charged economic issues, such as job creation, combating corporate malfeasance and retirement security. That approach, he said, can unite moderate and progressive Democrats.
I think whats most important this cycle and every cycle after this is that Democratic elected leaders and our party leadership dont ever forget the importance of standing up and fighting for hard-working families across the country, especially when it comes to economic issues, Lujn said. It turns out that whether you live in the smallest community in rural America or if you live in one of the biggest cities in the United States, we all understand the importance of a job [and] the dignity of the paycheck.
Another issue causing consternation among Democratic activists is the DCCCs digital fundraising program. DCCC officials take pride in their fundraising efforts, saying a majority of their 2017 fundraising to date comes from small-dollar donors. The DCCC out-raised its Republican counterpart for the second quarter of 2017 by $5 million ($29.1 million compared with $24.1 million).
However, many observers both within the party and without have criticized the way that those dollars are solicited. Theres a good chance that more people can describe the DCCC by the content of its fundraising appeals than by the organizations actual function in the Democratic Party. You may have seen some of their emails in your inbox:
From: Nancy Pelosi
Subject: Im losing hope
From: FINAL-NOTICE@dccc.org
Subject: AUTO-CONFIRM: [Member Status (07/31/2017)]
From: James Carville
Subject: ELECTION OVER. WE LOST.
Such alarmist clickbait is a great way to increase email open rates if House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is depressed and wants to chat, who are you to ignore her? but many Democrats worry that such hair-on-fire tactics will degrade the Democrats brand and create a cry-wolf effect. The FINAL-NOTICE email contained decidedly scammy language and formatting about the recipient risking losing their party membership if they didnt act. The blast from political strategist James Carville, despite its subject, was actually sent a week and a half before the 2016 election.
Though manipulative fundraising tactics may pale in significance compared with the policy debates underway, the emotions they solicit from party and liberal activists are no less raw. The DCCC, one former Democratic official warned, should seriously weigh the short-term gains of more $3 donations from scared white ladies who see subject lines like doomed against long-term party building.
Lujn and DCCC officials say they understand criticism of the email campaigns, but to crudely summarize their views on the matter: the emails are too damn profitable to stop.
Lujn says that theres been a shift in tone already this cycle, something he attributes to listening to activists across the country. However, he maintains that such behavior is necessary in a dog-eat-dog, post-Citizens United fundraising environment.
Half of what weve raised thus far to date has come from that program, Lujn observed.
I recognize the reputations thing, echoed Sena, who said such criticisms do not fall on deaf ears, but pointed to the digital programs financial success. People are responding to it and joining the fight. Theyre doing that by giving.
One area where the DCCC is changing course is its geographical focus, a correction that party officials admit was long overdue. It has relocated a number of D.C. staff positions to permanent posts in the districts and recruited a number of local organizers whose job, says Sena, is to arm the rebels.
I think all too often there was always an emphasis on training as many people as you could in Washington, D.C., and then youd fly them into different races across America, and after that election cycle theyd all pack up and go back to Washington, D.C., Lujn recalled.
Its a matter of being present, of going and having conversations with people, he elaborated. I think what weve seen in the past is people have made mistakes with a tendency to speak down to people.
The DCCC is also hosting a number of DCCC University sessions, in which its staffers and local political activists train up-and-coming campaign officials in behind-the-scenes skills, such as press engagement, coalition building and get-out-the-vote initiatives.
It was at one of these events in Albuquerque last month that Lujn sat down with HuffPost.
Everyones here for a fun-filled information gathering! a typically revved-up Lujn told the crowd before the training.
The congressmans blandly hip outfit that day jeans and a blazer over a T-shirt stamped with the New Mexico flag served to strengthen his nice guy vibes. In an alternate life, you could see him as a youth pastor who regularly sits backward on chairs to rap with kids about abstinence.
For Lujn, such organizationally minded events are an increasingly central component of the DCCCs work, as its financial reach, though still large, is diluted by all the independent expenditures now in play in a post-Citizens United world.
What were seeing after Citizens United are Republicans having endless amounts of money to attack and attack and attack, so you have to be in a position to defend that, Lujn said. I think its fair to say that, with the candidates that Ive been working with, I have put an emphasis on making sure that youre building a strong campaign and program.
Yet the interview came on the heels of stinging Democratic losses in special elections for House seats in Georgia, Montana, South Carolina and Kansas. The DCCC has absorbed considerable criticism over the loss in Georgias 6th Congressional District, where many saw Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff as overly cautious when it came to criticizing Trump and thought he ran a campaign that was overly focus-grouped, as Jeff Hauser, a House campaign veteran and executive director of the Revolving Door Project at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, described it.
There definitely needs to be a message about what a Democratic Congress would do but also how Trump is making Washington worse, Hauser said.
Lujn says he is proud of the campaign Ossoff ran, and, though he resisted providing a postmortem, he did say that the various scandals enveloping the Trump administration should be a part of Democrats messaging going forward.
Could we have made better decisions about leaning in [to the special elections] earlier or later? asked Lujn rhetorically. I think those are all fair questions, and we are getting to the bottom of that.
I see incredible momentum coming out of these special elections. That the National Republican Campaign Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund had to spend the dollars that they did should worry them.
But Lujn said he doesnt want Democrats to get distracted by Trump: We have to keep our focus on the American people and focus on what we can do to make things better.
The DCCC often serves as a stepping stone to party leadership, and a big win on Nov. 6, 2018,could be Lujns ticket to replacing Pelosi or one of her top deputies, all of whom are in their late 70s. Its talk that DCCC officials notably dont dissuade, and with a number of Lujns potential rivals for those top jobs seeking opportunities elsewhere, theres a good chance that America will become much more familiar with Lujn in the years to come.
The renewed debate over how policy-focused the DCCC should be is just a taste of what Lujn could expect should he rise to higher ranks. Pelosi has had to address similar questions since Trumps election, and one suspects that Lujns current battles will arise again should he decide to seek a promotion.
Right now, however, Lujn can only hope to get back to being the earnest, aw-shucksguy who can talk up the strengths and prospects of this cycles class of Democratic House candidates.
All across America, those middle-class, hard-working families need our help, and thats what Im asking for your help with, Lujn told the assembled campaign staffers and activists during his opening remarks. You willing to get on board with that?
A handful of audience members cheered in acknowledgment.
Oh, cmon! Lujn, exclaimed, dialing his Leave It to Beaver earnestness up to 11.You willing to get on board with that?
Yeahhhh!!! The crowd exclaimed.
It was clear that the Democrats chief congressional cheerleader was in his happy place.
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Democrats Could Take Back The House. Will They Screw It Up? - HuffPost