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So many times a day, my in-box and social-media feeds burble with outreach from the Democratic messaging machine: from democrats.org, say, or the D.N.C. War Room, the D.N.C. Rapid Response Team, the D.L.C.C. (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee), or even from Organizing for Action, the Obama political-action committee that is a veritable subsidiary of the national party. Looking at them as a whole can be a mind-numbing task as they variously re-plow and re-litigate the same matters over and over. To be fair, occasionally a message will try to stake out new literary ground, as Senator Al Franken and his overworked thesaurus did in June when he referred to Trumpcare as not just bad, but also contemptible, despicable, execrable, heartless, and malevolent. Generally, though, the Democrats want something: often money, sometimes votes, other times participation in something called the Resistance Summer.

These messages provide a pretty clear picture of how the Democrats want to be perceived by the world and what they prefer to talk about with their voters, donors, and assorted camp followers. Not surprisingly, Obamacare repeal is the largest topic (especially on social media), followed not too far behind by a suite of issues that coalesce around the Trump folliesRussia, the firing of James Comey, the appointment of an independent counsel, and various other malfeasances too numerous to catalogue fully here. Then there is voting rights and gerrymandering; the Paris Climate Change Agreement; the many perceived shortcomings of Betsy DeVos, Wall Street reform, the federal budget, and protection of poverty programs, tax cuts for the wealthy, LGBTQ rights, Planned Parenthood and reproductive rights. I could go on for quite a bit. Even the prospect of a new conservative-inspired Constitutional Convention generates several alarmed e-mails and tweets.

All this is to be expected. What is most intriguing, however, is what the Democrats are not talking about: the economy. If jobs are mentioned at all in their manifold messaging operations, it is often generally as a derivative of a different topic, such as the charge that Trumpcare will lead to the loss of health-care-related occupations in rural hospitals. All in all, it is a stunning omission. Economic concerns almost always top the list of the most important issues facing voters; economic problems have, for instance, topped the monthly Gallup issues poll this entire year, with the exception of June when dissatisfaction with government and poor leadership briefly took the crown.

It is not that Democrats are unaware that the economy and jobs are a centerpiece issue for voters. This is, after all, still the party of its the economy, and since at least the days of F.D.R., the party that championed unions, social security, college-access programs, and other policies that helped create the American middle class. Two weeks after the 2016 election debacle, Chuck Schumer summed up the loss with a simple assertion: We did not have a strong, bold economic message. Joe Biden reiterated the point, characteristically in many more words: My party did not talk [about] what it always stood for, and that is how to maintain a burgeoning middle class. And the truth of the matter is, you didnt hear a single solitary sentence in the last campaign about that guy working on the assembly making $60,000 a year, and the wife making $32,000 as a hostess in a restaurant . . . and theyve got two kids, and they cant make it. . . Similar sentiments were echoed after Jon Ossoff went down in defeat in last months special election in Georgias 5th District. Josh Gottheimer, a freshman congressman who represents New Jerseys purple-ish 5th District, told me that when you peer inside the party caucuses, economic issues dominate the Democratic conversation. Its all job creation, reducing regulation on small businesses, and economic development. And thats what Gottheimer talks about with his constituents, too.

Yet none of that though comes through in Democratic messaging, at least on a national level. Some of this flows from our modern politics. One Democratic congressman suggested to me that this is all the result of our data-driven times. Responses to e-mails and tweets are tracked on a molecular level and what works is repeated; what doesnt, on the other hand, gets dropped. Stories of Trump misdeeds energize the Democratic base. Plans to expand economic growth from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent, for instance, apparently dont. And the media operates on much the same basis, recruiting party officials eager to blab about the latest news-cycle talking points at the expense of covering larger economic trends and policies.

But there is more to it. Chris Murphy, the Senator from Connecticut whose name is now increasingly invoked in 2020 conversations, lamented to me that Democratic messaging has become mired in identify politics that we have made the mistake of thinking constituency groups care only about their issues. We talk to women about reproductive rights and African-Americans about police brutality. Those are important issues, but they all care about other things. The Democratic economic message has become soft, Murphy lamented, before noting that the party needs to aggressively promise more jobs, more growth, and more opportunity for the middle class. Tim Ryan, the outspoken representative from Ohio, frequently espouses this message as well. To be successful, Democrats need to return to core pocketbook issues: how to create middle class jobs, how to spur economic development, how to help the nations 2 million small businesses.

But Ryans outcry is otherwise in danger of being lost amid the daily, if not hourly, verbal warfare that dominates cable news and social media, and thus permeates national organizations calls to arms. Without a more specific, focused economic message, the Democratic Party will run the risk of becoming a blue-water party, confined to the coasts and largely irrelevant to broad swaths of the country.

Ryans concerns, as the 2016 general election map evidences, may already be coming true. It is not news that the Democratic Party is in bad shape, but it is still astonishing how beaten up it has become. Republicans occupy the White House, and both houses of Congress; they have made the majority of Supreme Court appointments, hold 33 governors seats, and have outright control of 32 state legislatures. If you judge a partys success by the number of people that they elect into officea pretty good measure, if you ask meDemocrats are in worse shape than any time since the Civil War.

The six months of Donald Trumps presidency may have been invigorating, what with all the marches and the resistance summer hashtags, but it has done little for the feckless reputation of the Democrats. A Washington Post-ABC poll earlier this month showed that only 37 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that the Democratic Party stands for something while 52 percent rallied to the belief that the Democratic Party just stands against Trump. Among Independent voters, it was even a bit worse, with only 32 percent agreeing that the party stood for something and 55 percent merely viewing it as the disloyal opposition.

It is a terrible long-term position for the party, to be defined by what you are against, not what you are for, and this reputation is clearly influenced by the failure to develop a coherent economic message. In the short-term, you can be sympathetic to Tom Perez, the chair of the D.N.C., and the party leadership for wanting to stand by while Trump immolates the Republican brand. Yet the Trump wildfire also has the potential of destroying not only his party and his presidency but public faith in both parties. And even if the pendulum swings and the Democrats claim power, it is difficult to govern when you have defined yourself entirely by opposing someone else, as Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have recently found out to their chagrin. For the Democrats to both win and govern, they will need to convince the public and themselves that they have a vision to grow the economy for the benefit of all. Right now, they are a long way from achieving that goal.

Excerpt from:
How the Democrats Fell for Trump's Trap - Vanity Fair

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Oh no.

In the midst of a reeling Republican presidential administration that may or may not be imploding in spectacular fashion even as you read this sentence, the Democrats have rolled out their slogan for the 2018 midterm congressional elections. My friends, the fight for the soul of this country is in the hands of people who came up with... this:

Congratulations to those of you who reflexively whispered "...Papa John's" before burying your head in your arms and sobbing quietly.

For God's sake, it's been only two weeks since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee invited the Internet to vote on which inane resistance-themed Pinterest meme it should turn into a 2018 bumper sticker, and 13 days, 23 hours, and 59 minutes since the Internet responded by mercilessly roasting them for it. But instead of promptly firing every Don Draper knockoff involved in the creation of these abominations, the people charged with wresting control of the country from a senile bigot less than 18 months from today are indeed poised to roll out what sounds like a marketing tagline for Corinthian Colleges.

Given that "Make America Great Again" has become the preferred salutation at NRA events and has probably made the world's producers of generic red baseball caps into gazillionaires, I understand why Democrats feel the urge to craft some sort of hashtaggable one-liner to lead the charge. But obsessively tinkering with the slogan continues to ignore the problem, which is, as my colleague Drew Magary recently put it, that the Democrats still don't have a unified message other than some tepid variation of "Actually, we are the party of the white working class," "This is not normal," or "Hey, did we mention that we're not Donald Trump?" The Republican Party backs up its stupid slogans with substantive promises, and while I'll eat my shoe on Facebook Live if Mexico ever actually pays for the wall, simply taking a stand for something was enough to win control of the entire federal government. Meanwhile, the Democrats keep brainstorming vapid catchphrases and hoping that the next iteration will be more #viral than the last.

Voters want better skills, and better jobs, and better wages. (And better health care, and a stronger social safety net, and a fairer tax system, and so on and so forth.) But the party desperately needs to decide which policies it plans to support in order effectuate these outcomes, even if some of the more tantalizing possibilitiessingle-payer health care or a federal minimum wage hike or whateverare more aspirational at this particular moment in history than anything else. It's cool that the Democrats are not Donald Trump. Being something other than Donald Trump is great! Now, they need to figure out who they are instead.

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The Democrats Unveiled a New Slogan and It's Infuriatingly Stupid - GQ Magazine

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll offers conflicting forecasts for the 2018 midterm elections, with voters clearly preferring Democrats in control of Congress to check President Trump even as Republicans appear more motivated to show up at the polls.

A slight majority of registered voters 52 percent say they want Democrats to control the next Congress, while 38 percent favor Republican control to promote the presidents agenda, according to the poll.

Yet a surge in anti-Trump protests does not appear to have translated into heightened Democratic voter enthusiasm a signal that could temper Democrats hopes for retaking the House majority next year.

Trumps low approval rating, which dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April, could also be significant if it fails to improve in the next year.

The survey also suggests that a shifting electorate could end up propelling Democrats to major gains if voters who have skipped prior midterm elections show up to cast ballots in 2018.

The snapshot emerges just as Congress has hit a major stumbling block in its effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, with Republican leaders in the Senate falling short this week of the votes they need to advance their deeply unpopular bill.

Although the poll was conducted before the collapse of the health-care push, the results suggest fresh uncertainty as to whether Democrats can recruit strong candidates and mobilize voters despite negative views of the Republican agenda.

Republicans currently hold a 24-seat advantage in the House, and Democrats have pointed to the spike in activism, Trumps unpopularity and voters general preference for Democratic congressional candidates as evidence that the majority could be in play.

The Post-ABC poll shows that Republicans actually hold the advantage in enthusiasm at this early point in the campaign cycle. A 65 percent majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say they are certain they will vote next year, versus 57 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

Among Americans who did not cast ballots in the last midterm elections, in 2014, Democrats and Republicans are about equally as likely to say they plan to vote in 2018 suggesting there is not a disproportionate number of newly motivated Democrats ready to come off the sidelines next year.

Independents, meanwhile, prefer Democratic control as a bulwark against Trumps agenda by the same 14-point margin as Democrats.

And then there is history: The party holding the White House, with few exceptions in the modern era, has tended to lose congressional seats in midterm elections.

We have a unique opportunity to flip control of the House of Representatives in 2018, Rep. Ben Ray Lujn (D-N.M.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, wrote in a memo last month. This is about much more than one race: the national environment, unprecedented grass roots energy and impressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run deep into the battlefield leave no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall.

Democrats, however, already this year have suffered a series of losses in special elections for open House seats none more crushing than their failure to win a suburban Atlanta race that drew more campaign and outside committee spending than any other House contest in U.S. history.

While Democrats came closer to winning these heavily Republican districts than in the past, the losses have spurred infighting and questions about how Democrats can best hone their strategy going into 2018.

The survey results suggest some reasons that Democrats have not been able to capitalize yet on voter antipathy toward Trump. For one thing, Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump do not appear to be any more motivated to vote than the average American.

Just over 6 in 10 of those who strongly disapprove of Trumps job performance say they are also certain to vote in 2018 midterm elections. Overall, 58 percent of voters say they are certain to vote next year, while 72 percent of strong Trump backers are certain they will vote.

That result contrasts with a Post poll taken soon after the presidential election and the post-inauguration Womens March that found Democrats more interested in increasing their involvement in politics.

Thirty-five percent of Democrats said then that they were more likely to become involved in political causes in the next year, compared with 21 percent of Republicans and independents. Nearly half of liberal Democrats and 4 in 10 Democratic women said they would become more engaged.

Now, it seems, the potential for a Democratic wave rides on whether the party can turn out voters who have tended to skip past midterm elections.

Democrats were more likely than Republicans to skip the 2014 congressional elections, and the poll finds that among those who sat out 2014 and now say they are certain to vote in 2018, Democrats have a major advantage. By 64 percent to 30 percent, more prefer Democrats as a check against Trump than Republicans who will support Trumps agenda.

On the other hand, there is evidence that Trumps struggle to pass major legislation has not sapped Republicans motivation to turn out.

Theres no significant difference between Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say Trump is making significant progress toward his goals as president and those leaning Republicans who say he is not. About two-thirds of each say they are certain to vote in midterm elections.

And despite Trumps dismal approval ratings, only slightly more voters say their congressional vote will be to oppose Trump 24 percent versus the 20 percent who say they will vote to support him. Just over half of voters say Trump will not be a factor in their votes.

The poll did not ask a generic congressional ballot question an indicator often cited by party strategists but recent polls show that voters favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by between six and 10 percentage points when asked whom they would rather vote for.

A report by the University of Virginias Center for Politics last month suggested that if Democrats maintain at least a six-point advantage on this question, they would be predicted to win enough congressional races to take control of the House in 2019.

While Democrats are heavily targeting the House in 2018, the Senate is seen as a tougher prize. Of the 33 seats in that chamber being contested, 25 belong to Democrats or independents who caucus with them. Of the eight GOP seats, forecasters and party campaign committees consider only two to be genuinely competitive.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted July 10-13 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults reached on cellular and landline phones. The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and four points among the sample of 859 registered voters.

Scott Clement contributed to this report.

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Even in Trump era, new poll shows a mixed outlook for Democrats in 2018 - Washington Post

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan face a very difficult choice as they survey the smoking ruins of their unified GOP government after nearly six months in office. They and their lieutenants could decide to pivot from health care to racking up small victories and awaiting reinforcements from the 2018 elections. Or they could go for a big deal with Democrats. Its a tough choice for Ryan and McConnell, but Im hoping they opt for the latter.

Putting off fixing the disaster that is Obamacare is risky, though not impossible. If Republicans score enough small victories between now and November 2018 cutting corporate taxes and confirming all Court of Appeals judges and perhaps next summer another member of the Supreme Court it may be possible to hold both houses of Congress. Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) is a dead man walking for his role in pulling the first thread that led to the unraveling of repeal and replace, but McConnell (Ky.) might calculate that wins in Florida, Missouri and elsewhere may leave him in a stronger position in January 2019 than he was at the start of this year.

Ryan (Wis.) is in more dangerous terrain, as every member of his caucus owns the failure to repeal and replace especially the Freedom Caucus, which threw the process into disarray only to retreat (too late) with a fig leaf and as a result the carnage of the collapsing Obamacare experiment. Real people with real illnesses and deeply flawed Medicaid insurance will discover in increasing numbers that paper insurance doesnt deliver real health care when their children are sick. A watch it fail approach to Obamacare, when the crisis is real and the consequences for poor children are so enormous, is not just bad politics; it is also immoral.

The alternative to waiting for 2019 is a bipartisan approach if Democrats will have it. A health-care deal could be done, leaving the fringes of both party caucuses on the outside looking in. Devolution of authority over Medicaid to the states, and repeal of the insurance mandate and absurd taxes such as the medical device tax, are the GOP must-haves. The Democrats will have their list.

Odds of success increase if the parties go big at the start by removing the sequesters limits on defense spending and adding immigration reform to the deal: appropriations for President Trumps wall paired with legalization of the law-abiding, undocumented population but no path to citizenship. A truly ambitious go big option could also include a settlement of the judicial confirmation wars, because the more moving parts, the better the chances of success. McConnell, Ryan and Democratic leaders Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) and Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) could get together with a half-dozen of the smartest members from both parties to work on an expedited basis and go big.

The GOP Congress has failed. Unless theres a Lazarus-like resurrection of the health-care bill, the session is effectively over. Tax reform isnt likely going to do any better than health-care reform, especially with Wall Street Journal ideologues demanding the end of the state and local income-tax deduction and the capping of the mortgage-interest deduction. (F.A. Hayek doesnt vote in large numbers. Blue-state voters with Republican congressmen do.) The GOP must get its appelate court nominees through the Senate, or the party wipeout could expand to seats previously thought safe.

The 2018 prospects look bad for both parties: The GOP lacks policy victories, thanks to imprudent Freedom Caucus members and scared moderates. The Democrats are lost in Trump hatred to the point where a large part of the country thinks that they and the mainstream media are deranged. Both parties have cause for concern. We are at a crisis point where citizens are giving up on representative government en masse. So why not swing for the fences?

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Why Ryan and McConnell should go for a big deal with Democrats - Washington Post

Civil rights activists and Democratic secretaries of state spoke to lawmakers Tuesday at a Democratic forum on President Trump's election commission(Photo: Deborah Barfield Berry, USA TODAY)

WASHINGTON On the eve of the first meeting of President Trumps voter fraud commission, Democrats and civil rights groups were busy trying to get Congress to pull the plug on the group.

Democrats hosted a forum on Capitol Hill on Tuesday,one of several efforts in recent weeks to block Trumps new commission, which is slated to hold its firstmeeting Wednesdayin Washington.

Our democracy is under siege," saidRep. Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, a former chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus. We know that race trumps all. We are being attacked by the White House ...There is no democracy in the world that tries to keep people from votingbut this one.

A coalition of civil rights and voting rights groups, including some from the hip hop music community, plan to hold a rally outside the White House on Wednesday morning to protest the group.

Trump set up the commission to study allegations of voter fraud in last years presidential election. Trump claims last years election included up to 3 million to 5 million fraudulent voters.

Supporters of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity,' mostly Republicans, said it will look at practices that undermine confidence in federal elections, including rampant voter fraud.

The presidents committed to the thorough review of registration and voting issues in federal elections, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said earlier this year.

Top Democrats on key committees, including Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson, also wrote a letter Tuesday to Vice President Pence asking him to remove Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach as the commissions vice chairman and to drop the groups recent request to state election officials for detailed voter information.

Thompson, the top Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee, Michigan Rep. John Conyers, the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, and others told Pence they were worried the request for voter data would undermine the integrity of the commission. They said they were alsoconcerned the commission could be used a tool for voter suppression."

The right to vote is at the foundation of our nations democracy, said Conyers, who led theforum. We cannot stand idly by while this most precious right that so many have fought and died for is attacked by the head of our own government."

Read more:

Democrats aim to block funding for Trump's election commission

'What are they trying to hide?' Trump slams election officials over voter data request

Trump voter fraud panel may spark partisan voting rights battle

Tuesday's forum featured voting rights activists and Democratic state election officials who called the commission a sham and said it should be disbanded. They said the commission is determined to restrict more voter access to the polls.

This commission is just getting started,"said Wade Henderson, former head of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, a coalition of about 200 civil rights groups. Its abundantly clear that we must be vigilant about its actions every step of the way."

In recent weeks, several voting rights groups have filed lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the commission among other things.

Kristen Clarke, president and executive director of the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, whose group was among those filing a lawsuit, complained the commissions work has been shrouded in secrecy.

The right to vote is sacred, but is clearly under attack, Clarke said Tuesday.

The Democratic National Committee recently set up its own commission to counter Trumps panel.

Last week, several Democrats including Rep. Cedric Richmond of Louisiana and Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Mazie Hirono of Hawaiiintroduced a bill to block funding for the commission. They acknowledge it doesnt stand a chance in the Republican-controlled Congress.

Still, said Booker, It would be highly irresponsible for senators or congressional members to remain silent.

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Sen. Mazie Hirono, a Democrat from Hawaii, discuss their bill that would block funding for President Trump's election commission.(Photo: Deborah Barfield Berry, USA TODAY)

Dozens of Democratic and Republican state election officials have refused to comply with all or part of the commissions request to provider voter information. The commission put the request on hold as it faces legal challenges.

David Becker, who heads the Center for Election for Election Innovation and Research and has been working with voter files for a decade, saidWednesday's meeting is an opportunity for the commission to explain, at the most basic level, what its mission is.

Most of the commissioners have been absolutely silent, he said. Part of that is because theres a significant number of them who dont have any experience or know anything about election administration at all.

Contributing: Heidi Przybyla, USA TODAY

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Democrats, civil rights group aim to block Trump election commission - USA TODAY