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President Biden is telling everyone he plans to run for a second term, but with about 50 days to the midterms, most Democrats arent sure he will follow through on that plan.

Cedric Richmond, the former Democratic lawmaker and Biden White House official, said definitively this week that its on when it comes to Biden and 2024.

Hes running and were building an infrastructure for him to run and win,Richmond toldNBC. Right now, its all an early investment in 2024 while were helping 2022.

Despite such statements, a lot of Democrats have their doubts even as their overall optimism for the fall midterms rises as Bidens approval ratings inch up and polls and voter registration numbers offer evidence of voter anger with the Supreme Courts abortion decision.

If Democrats lose the House, as most still expect, but keep the Senate majority, will Biden decide to stick with his stated plans and be the partys nominee?

If things go more poorly and Democrats lose the House and the now evenly divided Senate, will it be the kind of political blow that changes Bidens mind about running for president?

Despite his insistence, will age ultimately end up being a factor? Biden will turn 81 in November 2023.

And if former President Trump runs again and looks like an odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, will Biden put everything aside to run again?

Behind the scenes, Democrats are talking, and talking about the possibilities, debating the pros and cons of a Biden run.

I think a lot of the mystery is were all beholden to the never-ending political news cycle, and Trump announced for reelection like three minutes after taking office, but its not unusual for a president to be waiting until after the midterms to announce, said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale, urging Democrats to stay calm.

I think a lot of people who were speculating about him not running were bed wetting because of insanely far out poll numbers and/or have a different preferredcandidate, but every indication seems to me hes running, he said.

Biden has repeatedly said he intends to launch another presidential bid for 2024. As recently as June, he said he would not be disappointed to face Trump in a rematch. Last week, Vice President Harris largely considered the front-runner if Biden should step aside also reiterated that view.

The president has been very clear that he intends to run again, she told Chuck Todd on NBCs Meet the Press. And if he does, I will be running with him proudly.

Sources say Biden has also begun to quietly examine what a 2024 campaign might look like, while testing out messages during the midterms.

Beltway pundits have parsed every cue and nuance however slight to solidify their views. When first lady Jill Biden said this week on NBCs Today that she and her husband had not yet discussed another run, some took that as a sign that it isnt happening.

Age is a major reason for doubts about Biden.

I love the guy. I think hes done a good job as president, but I also cant see the likelihood of a guy in his 80s running again, one strategist said. Like it or not, hes old.

It is rare for a sitting president to not run for reelection. The last time that happened was with Lyndon Johnson at the height of the Vietnam war.

But the nation has never had a president as old as Biden.

The president is also the only Democrat to actually defeat Trump in the Electoral College race. That will be a factor; few Democrats see another candidate in their ranks who is widely seen as having a stronger change against Trump.

Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, noted that Biden faces questions beyond his age including his handling of the economy.

As Biden took a victory lap this week for the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, he had to contend with a split screen on cable news showing a falling stock market reacting to the news that consumer prices rose in August.

Biden has said he feels he is the only one in the Democratic Party who can defeat Trump, who turned 76 in June.

But if Trump doesnt run, Biden could face an opponent like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who Democrats fear could put up a good fight. Age would be a contrast and possibly a factor in a Biden match-up with DeSantis, who is 44.

Every presidential election is high stakes but after four years of the Trump presidency this feels more real than ever before. Combine all of these [factors] and the questions dont go away, Zelizer said.

Those questions continued to loom around the Biden presidency earlier this year as his poll numbers fell sharply and survey after survey showed that voters largely said the country was heading in the wrong direction.

More recently, after scoring a few legislative wins, Biden has rebounded.

A New York Times-Siena College survey, published Friday, showed Biden with a 42 percent approval rating, up from 33 percent in the last poll in July.

The presidents numbers were boosted largely by Democrats who are more optimistic about his leadership, as he faced major crises in recent months including the Russian war in Ukraine, soaring gas prices and record-high inflation.

There was always a path for the president to get back to a politically strong position and its because a lot of the loss of support was from some Democrats, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. He has clearly been able to rebuild that over the summer and that bodes well for him going into a 2024 reelection campaign.

At the same time, others are more skeptical that Biden will be able to pull off another victory.

Hes had an amazing run, probably one of the best stories in the modern political era, said one Democratic donor. But you have to know when its time to hang up your hat, even for your own legacy.

Other Democrats scoff at the naysayers.

I find it interesting that all of these so called experts wont go on the record, said Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau. Its likely because when he does run and wins, theyre going to look foolish.

Mollineau added: I suspect these are the same people who didnt think he was going to win the first time.

Read this article:
Biden says hes running. Democrats still have their doubts - The Hill

From classrooms in public schools to doctors offices, from marriage equality to expanding voting access, accessible child care and action on climate change, Democratic candidates made the case Saturday that they represent the true party fighting for freedom.

The annual Steak Fry, hosted by Polk County Democrats, attracted candidates up and down the ballot to share their visions for serving Iowa at the state and the federal levels. And as they spoke, a theme emerged.

Deidre DeJear, the gubernatorial candidate taking on Gov. Kim Reynolds, put it bluntly in her speech.

When I came to the state of Iowa, what I found was my home but, in real life, what I found was freedom, she said. I had the freedom to get an education. I had the freedom to start a small business, I had the freedom to explore what my path was going to look like.

And now as we see, those freedoms, those pathways are getting smaller and smaller, and not just for us, but if its happening to us, we can only imagine whats happening to the most vulnerable amongst us, she continued.

DeJear talked about Iowa being far ahead of the national curve on desegregating schools and legalizing gay marriage. She also pointed toward the diverse field of candidates Democrats have on the ticket this year and in leadership positions.

This is freedom, DeJear said. Freedom is on the ballot and I am sure that freedom is going to ring in the state again.

Rep. Cindy Axneemphasized some of the other freedoms she and other Democrats plan to protect, especially if they grow their numbers in Congress.

We need to eradicate these childcare deserts that weve got all over this state. We need to make sure that theres affordable housing for every single person, thats the dignity that they deserve, Axne said. Weve got to ensure that our kids have the mental health support that they need. And weve got to protect our public school system.

Axne also talked about some of the big bills Democrats have passed since President Joe Biden was inaugurated to boost Americas manufacturing power, upgrade the countrys infrastructure and ease some of the burden of the pandemic.

When he spoke, Senate candidate Mike Franken emphasized how the progress under Democrats has just gotten started and its more than possible for it to continue with more.

Democrats in the state of Iowa, lets regain the glory of yesteryear for a progressive state thats about education, health care, elder care, environment, union labor, fair wages, human dignity, and civil affairs, he said.

And State House Minority Leader Rep. Jennifer Konfrst connected what Iowans want with the principles of the Democratic Party.

Do Democrats, do Iowans want to give more tax breaks to corporations and the richest Iowan? No, Konfrst said. Do Iowans want reproductive freedom? Yes. Do Iowans want the ability to live a good life in a state where everybody is equal, you can love who you love, you can be who you want to be, you can have a job you believe in and you can make a difference with your neighbors and friends? Is that what Iowans want?

I have such good news for them, she continued. Democrats are here.

Nikoel Hytrek09/18/22

Have a story idea or something I should know? Email me at nikoel@iowastartingline.com. You can also DM me on Twitter at@n_hytrek.

Iowa Starting Line is part of an independent news network and focuses on how state and national decisions impact Iowans daily lives. We rely onyour financial supportto keep our stories free for all to read. You cancontribute to us here. Also follow us onFacebookandTwitter.

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Iowa Democrats Pitch Themselves As Real Party Of Freedom At Steak Fry - Iowa Starting Line

Yesterday was the 235th anniversary of the Constitution of the United States. It's one of the most influential documents in history and the world's oldest active codified constitution. Yet you would have never known, given the deafening silence on the social media accounts of our country's president and vice president. While they often pander to crowds, touting the importance of the Constitution, neither President Joe Biden nor Vice President Kamala Harris appeared to acknowledge Constitution Day on their social media accounts.

The Constitution is one of the greatest documents in the history of the world, so it is a little peculiar that our country's leadership failed to acknowledge Constitution Day on any of their social media platforms. Instead, President Biden and Vice President Harris spent the day tweeting about the need for abortion, the Inflation Reduction Act, and climate change. Considering both made multiple posts across different platforms celebrating National Hispanic Heritage Month on Sept. 15, just two days earlier, it's a telling sign that neither posted about the significance of Sept. 17.

Yet this lack of patriotism and appreciation for the Constitution did not stop with Biden and Harris. This slight appeared to be widespread among the Democratic Party. Neither the Senate Democrats nor House Democrats' Twitter accounts acknowledged Constitution Day. Neither did the Democrats' Twitter account. However, all managed to post about National Hispanic Heritage Month.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) also failed to acknowledge Constitution Day but did acknowledge National Hispanic Heritage Month multiple times. But somehow, he managed to find time out of his busy day to tweet about something called "Passport Month." But when it came to Constitution Day, Schumer's Twitter had a deafening silence. And, probably to no one's surprise, neither Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) nor any of the "Squad" members appeared to acknowledge Constitution Day.

This was in stark contrast to the Republicans, and honestly, this revelation shouldn't be surprising. Unlike their left-wing counterparts, the House Republicans and Senate Republicans' Twitter accounts tweeted about Constitution Day and the 235th anniversary of our country's governing document. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) were among the many, many Republicans who tweeted about Sept. 17. Oh, and Republicans also tweeted about National Hispanic Heritage Month, effectively showing it was possible to tweet about both. Republicans decided to do so. Democrats chose not to.

But this is quite odd given the Democrats' constant rhetoric about constitutional rights. It's even stranger that 16 days after Joe "Soul of the Nation" Biden gave the most hateful and divisive speech by any president in our nation's history, at the site where the Constitution was ratified, he did not mention anything about its 235th anniversary.

The same goes for Vice President Harris. Count how many times she uses the phrase "constitutional rights" in her speeches. Yet she couldn't find the less than five seconds it takes to send out a message on any social media platform commemorating the Constitution of the United States of America.

Then again, given that Biden and the Democrats repeatedly fail to follow the Constitution's principles or adhere to many of its guidelines, maybe this slight wasn't unintentional. Perhaps it shouldn't be all that surprising that Democrats failed to celebrate Constitution Day on social media like they did National Hispanic Heritage Month or Passport Month. Clearly, Democrats have shown their priorities.

Biden, Harris, and all the Democrats that failed to acknowledge this date should be ashamed of themselves. It's disgraceful. It's indicative of the lack of patriotism the Left has for the country. When the cameras are rolling or it benefits them politically, they tout the Constitution. Yet, when it comes to honoring one of the greatest documents in human civilization, Biden and his Democrats largely were nowhere to be found. On the date that honored the 235th anniversary of the Constitution of the United States, Biden, Harris, and many others on the Left revealed their true colors and they weren't red, white, and blue.

Read more:
Biden, Harris, and other Democrats don't acknowledge anniversary of Constitution - Washington Examiner

Iowa Democrats say conservatives are too busy fighting culture wars in the statehouse to work on improving Iowas rural areas to attract younger people to the states 38 most rural counties.

Iowas population rose 4.7 percent since the 2010 Census, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Iowas 38 rural counties, however, saw a net population loss since the 2010 census. While Iowas five most populous, liberal counties saw a net population increase.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, eight in 10 college students in the U.S. move back to or within 10 miles of where they grew up. Although a Washington Postinvestigation into brain drain found that more than 25 percent of college students who study in Iowa leave Iowa after graduation or move to Illinois.

Ryan Melton, a Democrat running for Iowas 4th congressional seat currently held by Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, said Republican policies are driving young people out of the state, in a tweet on Saturday.

Too many of our young people are leaving the state. This will get worse if we have officials in office who dont respect them and they ask for affordable college, robust career opportunities, and reproductive rights, Melton wrote in the tweet.

Iowa Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, R-Wilton, said in an interview with The Daily Iowan that this has been a bipartisan issue, not partisan politics.

In totality where we are at,its a pretty bipartisan issue, Kaufmann said. So, thats kind of one of the fun areas to work when you can have everybodys input, Democrats and Republicans.

With bipartisan support for retaining rural residents, Iowa legislation on the issue moved forward in the statehouse. Last year, the Iowa Legislature passed bills on broadband, childcare, rural economic development, and recreation development in the state.

But many Democratic legislators are looking to do more blaming Republican policies for driving away young people from the state.

A July survey by the U.S. Census Bureau said economic factors were the largest factor in consideration when young people move.

Iowa Senate Minority Leader Zach Wahls, D-Coralville, said Republicans have no plans to save small towns.

They have completely abandoned small towns in rural Iowa, and instead are focusing all of their attention on culture war issues that are driving young people out of our state, Wahls said. There are growing gaps between the haves and the have nots, both in our small towns and our big cities, and Republicans made that issue worse when they passed a tax cut that is going to overwhelmingly benefit the ultra-rich and big corporations earlier this year.

Over the last decade, the bottom 20 percent of Iowa households' wages decreased by 6.1 percent, according to the Economic Policy Institute. While the middle 20 percent grew by 4.3 percent and the richest 20 percent grew by 8.5 percent, according to the study.

The bottom 20 percent of an Iowa households average yearly salary was $24,800, while the richest 20 percent of households average yearly salary was $215,900.

Iowas minimum wage is the same as the federal minimum wage, which is currently $7.25 per hour if a person works a 40-hour work week. A person would make $15,080 a year before taxes if making minimum wage.

The average yearly salary in Iowa is $51,873 a year; the U.S. average is $51,916.27. While the median wage in the U.S. is $34,248.45 , Iowas is $39,083.20 slightly above the national median.

Looking at these data points, Iowa is on track with the national average in yearly salaries. However, the state still suffers from income inequality.

Kaufmann said in his district income inequality isnt a major issue, that there are companies that offer high wages that support his district.

We have a strong job market. We've got, I mean, in my district, I can name companies off the top of my head that have strong wages, good benefits, that are in small towns, Kaufmann said.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics in July 2022 Iowa had an unemployment rate of 2.5 percent. According to the Iowa Workforce Development, there are 84,059 on their online job posting board as of Sept. 14.

Wahls also said young people are concerned about climate, reproductive rights, the cost of college, and wages.

Young people are rightly concerned about the future existence of our planet, which I think is a totally rational concern, not an extreme one at all. Young people are concerned about maintaining bodily autonomy, which is a totally normal and rational concern that's shared by a wide variety of age groups, Wahls said.

According to a Pew Research Center poll, 74 percent of adults age 18 to 29 think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while only 25 percent think be illegal in all or most cases.

According to another Pew Research Center poll, 67 percent of Gen Z and 71 percent of Millennials think climate solutions should be the top priority.

Wahls said young people are looking for public education to be funded in the state. Republicans have voted to cut funding from Regent universities in recent budgets.

Republicans have systematically underfunded our region's universities and institutions, which has directly resulted in the increases of tuition that are making college increasingly unaffordable for middle class families, Wahls said.

Republicans have capped the yearly annual increases in the states public education budget at 2.5 percent to account for inflation.

Democrats and teachers have said 2.5 percent isnt enough. Deidre DeJear, the Democratic candidate for governor in Iowa, recently put forth her education policy plan that includes a 4 percent annual increase to the states public education budget and a $300 million influx of cash from the states budget surplus to Iowas schools to use at their discretion.

RELATED: Deidre DeJear puts public education as top priority at campaign event

Kaufmann said the Iowa legislature has moved forward on key issues that affect young people like childcare and Broadband internet.

If you are young and want to have a family, look to childcare. We've been making some significant policy changes and investment in childcare, I think, Kaufmann said. If you look at broadband, there's some pretty big [coverage] desert areas in Iowa. The governor asked for and we gave 100 million dollars two years ago and then again last year to complete that.

In 2021, the Republican controlled Iowa legislature passed a budget resolution funding $100 million dollars into the states broadband program Empower Rural Iowa. Gov. Kim Reynolds also created a task force to address the childcare shortage in Iowa and distributed $13 million in Future Ready Iowa Child Care Grants.

RELATED: Gov. Reynolds creates task force focussed on expanding childcare availability

Wahls said this was only part of what is important to young people, with social issues and political culture being important as well.Wahls also accused Republicans of weaponizing cynicism, to siphon the hope out of the left.

Republicans and kind of the right wing authoritarian forces in this country want young people to feel disaffected, to feel like there's no difference between the parties. That's their strategy, right, is to muddle the differences, Wahls said.

Wahls also said that policies involving education, recreation, and social issues are on the ballot this November.

To fight for our interests, the most important thing that we can do is to participate in the electoral process, make sure that our friends and classmates are registered to vote, and have a plan to vote and show off this November, Wahls said. And the Republicans are hoping that we don't do that. That's their whole political strategy.

Continue reading here:
Iowa Democrats say Republicans fighting culture wars instead of focusing on improving the state - UI The Daily Iowan

Seven weeks out from the midterm elections, Democrats are facing better prospects than when they entered the summer of 2022. Inflation has improved, gas prices are dropping, and as they go back home, congressional Democrats can claim a host of accomplishments from their time in DC.

But theres one win some Democrats are concerned may be more of a liability than an asset: the Biden administrations plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student loans.

Before the plan became a reality, the country was split in its support of debt forgiveness: Republicans largely opposed it, but it had long been a hit among a large subset of younger voters, according to progressive pollsters. Now, polling shows a stark partisan split in support for the plan, and concerningly for Democrats in tight races, soft support among independents.

Timed curiously after a score of legislative wins and a few months before elections, the announcement sparked outrage among conservatives who thought the bailout was unfair to those who did not seek a college education or had already paid off their loans. At the same time, the policy announcement landed as President Joe Biden saw a rebound in support, especially among younger Americans. But on the campaign trail, the plan hasnt made the positive electoral impact that many proponents had touted as one of the political advantages of forgiving student debt. And its providing fodder to Republican candidates wholly opposed to Bidens economic agenda.

Thats part of the reason a handful of vulnerable Democratic incumbents (and challengers) criticized the policy when the White House announced it. Some of those campaigns have since told me that they either arent making it an issue in their races or simply arent hearing much about it from Democratic voters.

Negative blowback to the policy hasnt yet registered in polling on whats motivating voters, but theres still time for either side to make it an issue. If Republicans are successful in doing so, some Democrats worry the policy could cost them badly needed support in swing states and races, and could eat away at their chances of keeping a Senate majority while limiting losses in the House.

Biden had already extended the moratorium on student loan payments four times ahead of his August 24 announcement and had been hesitant to commit to loan cancellation for most of his first year in office. Hed faced criticism from progressives in his party and from advocacy groups, including the charge that he was breaking a campaign promise (even though he never committed to full loan cancellation). In response, he gave himself a September deadline and promised a decision on debt relief or another extension of the moratorium.

This years spring and summer, however, delivered devastating approval numbers for Biden, driven in large part by high inflation. The president and his party were shedding support from young voters and liberal Democrats and his numbers with independents were underwater. Many progressive advocacy groups and student loan relief activists argued that erasing student debt would be one easy, major way to stop the bleeding.

Polling leading up to the decision showed a divided country. Nationally, more than six in 10 Americans supported some kind of student loan forgiveness in a February Data for Progress poll that student loan relief champions used as evidence of popularity. But complete loan forgiveness had the support of only a quarter of respondents. Broken down by party and age, a majority of Republicans and a plurality of older Americans opposed any action, while half of Democrats and a plurality of young Americans and independents backed some, but not all, debt cancellation.

That partisan split still exists. The country is divided nearly in half in support and opposition to Bidens policy, and its unpopular with independent and Republican voters, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll taken immediately after the announcement. Support from independents remains roughly equally divided, while Republicans have grown more opposed to it.

Before Bidens announcement, there was a risk that such a decision, which helps many (but not just those) in the Democratic base, could alienate swing voters independent, working-class, and non-college-educated voters that Democrats in tight races are trying to persuade. Now the divide that shows up in national polling has sparked concerns from pundits, political strategists, and vulnerable Democratic candidates that aside from placating the left flank, there might not be a tremendous political boost.

Regardless of the electoral effect, the most progressive constituents of the Democratic party say the Biden action was worth it because it will energize voters disillusioned with Democrats. It helps galvanize the base to understand that Biden and the Democrats are listening, Dakota Hall, the executive director of the Alliance for Youth Action, told me. Its a sign of good faith that Biden did this before the election, to show the base that he is listening, that he wants to make good on his promises.

It remains to be seen, however, just how much student loan forgiveness will bring out young voters. Its important to remember that even young voters were split on just how much debt relief to support (a third opposed any action earlier this year). Some of the speculation about the policys impact on younger voters rests on the common wisdom that younger Americans are more progressive than older cohorts, but that is only partially true. Young Americans are still more moderate than you might expect.

What is apparent is that Bidens action is not as popular with the kind of voter that tends to matter in midterm elections in swing states: older white Americans and independents. And Republicans in battleground states are already folding criticism of student debt relief into their bigger case against Democrats centered around inflation and economic mismanagement in states like Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Wisconsin.

That has many campaigns in swing states concerned. And because of that, they arent necessarily talking up the policy in the general election, either to not unsettle independent voters or to avoid giving Republicans more fodder to attack them.

In swing-state Ohio, where Rep. Tim Ryan is in a tight race with former venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance for an open seat, Ryan has openly opposed Bidens plan.

Tim believes using executive action to wipe away six-figure earners debt goes too far, his communications director Izzi Levy told Vox in a statement. [He] believes the administration would have been better served by prioritizing across-the-board economic relief that benefits all working- and middle-class Ohioans, whether or not they attended college.

A member of Ryans campaign leadership told me that his stance is due to both the working-class nature of the states electorate (only about a quarter of the population has a college degree) and because voters havent really brought it up in conversation, as opposed to topics like inflation and affordability.

In Colorado, a swing state that is trending Democratic, Sen. Michael Bennet also criticized the presidents plan, saying in August that the administration should have further targeted the relief, and proposed a way to pay for this plan. While immediate relief to families is important, one-time debt cancellation does not solve the underlying problem.

About four in 10 Coloradans have a college education, but a Bennet campaign spokesperson told me that he hasnt heard much about student loan cancellation on the trail. Costs, climate, and public lands are top of mind, the spokesperson told me. Most of all, were hearing concerns abortion will become illegal following the SCOTUS decision on Roe.

Its hard to gauge just how much student debt relief is motivating voters without specific polling in each state. In Nevada, for example, 61 percent of voters polled oppose the action, according to a recent Emerson College poll. That survey also showed the ultra-right-wing Republican election denier Adam Laxalt with a one-point lead against incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto, who has struggled to maintain high support throughout her reelection campaign. Cortez-Masto also came out against the plan after it was announced. In neighboring Arizona, however, incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has endorsed the presidents executive action. No recent in-state polling shows how people feel about the policy, but Arizona has more than 30 percent college-educated residents to Nevadas more than 25 percent.

Still, it may be too early to judge the effect student loan cancellation is having on races or whether, despite Republican attempts to make it an issue, it will have any effect at all. The policy is most popular with a very specific subset of the country Democrats often see as their base: younger Americans, college-educated voters, and fervent liberals the sort of voters who would have likely voted for Democrats even if loans had not been forgiven.

Ultimately, the policy might have had the effect of stopping the bleeding of support that Biden and Democrats were experiencing among their base, and changing the narrative of whether Democrats especially young ones would be as motivated or engaged to vote this year as Republicans.

There are also plenty of other issues taking precedence in voters minds, especially inflation for independents and young voters, and abortion for college-educated and white Democrats. Republicans may find opportunities to tie debt relief to inflation worries (plenty of Americans are worried about the effect of loan cancellation on inflation), but as a standalone issue, running on or against student loan cancellation seems like a wash.

Politics aside, when the action goes into effect next year, it may be one of the most recent direct pieces of evidence that government and electoral politics are capable of delivering tangible, positive effects for a swath of working people, people of color, and younger Americans who held debt that was forgiven. That shouldnt be understated. For now, though, student loan relief seems like a slight political vulnerability likely to be outweighed by deeper, longstanding economic and social concerns that are already motivating the voters most likely to cast ballots.

Read more from the original source:
Student loan forgiveness isnt the midterms savior some Democrats wanted - Vox.com