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Soon after President Donald Trump ordered that transgender people may no longer serve in the military, one anonymous White House official boasted about how the new policy would trap Senate Democrats running for reelection in the Rust Belt: This forces Democrats to take complete ownership of the issue. How will the blue-collar voters in these states respond when senators up for reelection in 2018 like Debbie Stabenow are forced to make their opposition to this a key plank of their campaigns? Raw politics was not the only motivationPOLITICO reported Trumps decision was mainly an effort to resolve a fight in Congress that threatened funding for his border wallbut theres little doubt that some Republicans believe the transgender rights debate drives a wedge between Democrats and critical swing voters.

Trumps shocking announcement comes two days after Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, rolled out a new agenda crafted to circumvent the culture wars. The Better Deal package is laser-focused on the economy and restraining corporate power, with proposals to crack down on monopolies, stop price gouging by pharmaceuticals and raise the minimum wage to $15.

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Schumer explained the underlying reasoning in a New York Times op-ed: Democrats will show the country that were the party on the side of working people and that we stand for three simple things. First, were going to increase peoples pay. Second, were going to reduce their everyday expenses. And third, were going to provide workers with the tools they need for the 21st-century economy.

Several high-profile issues are conspicuously missing from those three simple things: climate change, reproductive freedom, gun control, immigration and discriminationall issues that have become signifiers of membership in ranks of secular, multicultural liberalism. But if Democrats thought they could escape being sucked back into a culture war as they pursued white voters without college degrees, Trumps assault on transgender rights was a rude awakening.

A renewal of Bill Clintons the economy, stupid strategy may make sense on paper. But campaigns do not take place on paper. External events, sometimes engineered by your opponent, often intrude on the best-laid plans. In all likelihood, Democrats will have to figure out how to sell the Better Deal while simultaneously defending their commitment to multiculturalism.

It would be unfair to conclude that the Better Deal omissions are tantamount to abandonment. In fact, Schumer quickly stood up for transgender soldiers, as did Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, all facing tough reelection battles next year. But these responses keep economic and social issues independent of each other, suggesting Democrats will try to pivot back to an economics-only message as soon as possible. Thats a missed opportunity. The transgender soldier controversy is a chance to test a message strategy that incorporates the essence of the entire Democratic platform: that no matter what your background, your occupation, where you live or where you went to school, America wont leave you behind.

Democrats are probably feeling pretty good about the pushback they delivered to Trump. Two recent studies were quickly taken off the shelf and shared widely online, showing that transgender soldiers have made little or no impact on unit cohesion, operational effectiveness, or readiness, and their health care needs add a negligible cost. Several Republican senators broke with Trump, including some from deep red territory like Richard Shelby of Alabama and Orrin Hatch of Utah. McCaskills response was to share Sen. John McCains statement, which read, We should all be guided by the principle that any American who wants to serve our country and is able to meet the standards should have the opportunity to do soand should be treated as the patriots they are. McCaskill only added, what he said.

The bipartisan agreement is a reminder liberals have largely won the culture war declared by Pat Buchanan in 1992, when he railed against the amoral idea that gay and lesbian couples should have the same standing in law as married men and women and stood against putting our wives and daughters and sisters into combat units of the United States Army. Back then, Democrats were wary of engaging in these hot-button social issues. The battle over allowing gays to serve openly in the military sapped Clintons political capital in the early months of 1993 and produced the unsatisfying dont ask, dont tell compromise. That political debacle helped Republicans pressure Democrats to back the anti-gay Defense of Marriage Act, and force it on to Clintons desk with veto-proof majorities.

In 2004, Democrats were flustered when White House political adviser Karl Rove engineered 11 state ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriage in a ploy to boost conservative turnout. Most Democrats responded in halting fashion, opposing marriage rights but supporting a legal equivalence (in 2000, Vermont Gov. Howard Deans signing of landmark civil union legislation was done in private, in an attempt to mitigate backlash). When John Kerry lost the presidential election in 2004, even openly gay Rep. Barney Frank put the blame on then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom for provoking the issue by unilaterally legalizing same-sex marriage, only to be restrained by the courts, earlier in the year.

But Barack Obamas reelection after embracing same-sex marriage rights in 2012, the Supreme Court ruling protecting same-sex marriages in 2015, and the resulting public approval, turned the culture war tables. Liberals found fresh confidence to forge ahead in the fight for equal rights, including for transgender people. Today, the Democratic Party, and America in general, are more multicultural and more culturally liberal than in the 1990s. Most Americans oppose laws that force people into bathrooms that do not correspond with their gender identity, and most do not believe being transgender is a choice or a mental illness. The voter backlash against North Carolinas bathroom bill was strong enough to oust the Republican governor who signed the law while simultaneously giving Trump the state's 15 electoral votes. In this climate, no Democratic candidate is going to get very far by throwing sharp elbows at any minority groupas Clinton did during the 1992 campaign when he criticized Rev. Jesse Jackson to his face for giving the controversial rapper-activist Sister Souljah a platform at his Rainbow Coalition conference. In fact, there is an expectation among base voters for a strong response when those issues are thrust into the spotlight. Democrats now have little reason, and ability, to stay silent.

And yet, the culture wars remain a complex political minefield for Democrats. While a majority of Americans often agree with socially liberal positions, many of those voters are electorally impotent, clustered in urban areas outside of swing states. Moreover, swing voters with some liberal sympathies dont feel as passionately about social issues as do core Democrats, and may recoil at an emphasis on minority rights or womens rights. Thats why after months of analyzing polls and focus group data, Democrats crafted an agenda based on the critique best articulated by their Mahoning County party chair: People in the heartland thought the Democratic Party cared more about where someone else went to the restroom than whether they had a good paying job.

The Democrats ability to walk this political tightropebalancing their emphasis on economic and social issuesis challenged by Trump, who views social conservatives as his backstop. Evangelical Christians put their faith in the gleefully sinful Trump on Election Day, and Trump has delivered for them more than any other constituency: installing Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court, ending funds for the United Nations Population Fund, which supports contraception, and revoking Obamas order protecting the rights of transgender students to use the bathroom of their choice. Without social conservatives, Trump wouldnt have had the base turnout to eke out a victory. And Trump now has a rock-solid base that prevents him from going into a job approval free fall, and helps keep disgruntled congressional Republicans in line.

So we can expect Trump to keep opening new fronts in the culture war, and Democrats to keep responding in kind. And every time that happens, Democrats will not be able to main a singular focus on their Better Deal.

The recipe for winning back white working-class voters cant be fully cooked inside the controlled conditions of a focus group. Democrats have no choice but to weave together their economic platform with their multicultural principles, so any discussion of minority rights is not perceived as favoring one group over another. No question thats easier said than done, as the White Houses anonymous Machiavellian political adviser proves. But Trumps discriminatory, zero-sum brand of politics presents Democrats with an enormous opportunity.

While Trump tries to cling to power with a loyal yet still limited base, he cedes Democrats the opening for a broader and more durable coalition. But that opportunity cant be seized with the micro-targeting evident in the Better Deal pitch. When it comes to coalition building, there are no short cuts.

Bill Scher is a contributing editor to Politico Magazine, and co-host of the Bloggingheads.tv show The DMZ.

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Democrats Can't Escape the Culture War - POLITICO Magazine

Polling shows growing support among Democrats overall for a government-run health care system amid Republican efforts to tear down the 2010 Affordable Act. | AP Photo

By ADAM CANCRYN

07/27/2017 01:56 PM EDT

Updated 07/27/2017 03:34 PM EDT

A single-payer health care system may be the holy grail for many progressives, but a Republican plan to put Senate Democrats on the record voting for it couldnt get support even from Bernie Sanders.

Democrats on Thursday afternoon sat out a vote on a proposal for a completely government-run health care system, denouncing it as a ploy designed to score political points against vulnerable red-state Democrats and drive a wedge between the party to distract from the GOPs health care struggles.

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Four Democrats and one independent Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly and Angus King voted with all of the chamber's Republicans against the amendment, which failed 0-57. The four Democrats are facing reelection in states that President Donald Trump won.

Im not going to support something thats a sham, and thats a sham, Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said before the vote. Not at the same time theyre planning to kick people off their health insurance. Its a bait and switch.

The introduction of single-payer health care into a conversation about unwinding Obamacare offers an inflection point for Democrats who have long shied away from endorsing the universal coverage system. The reality is, single payer is gaining steam in the liberal base, and mainstream Democrats like Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have taken up the cause in Congress. A majority of House Democrats support a Medicare for All bill in the House, which is the functional equivalent of a single-payer system.

Thursdays vote, though, wasnt the moment for Democrats to throw down the gauntlet on single payer. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) derided his own amendment as socialized medicine that makes up the heart and soul of the Democratic vision for health care.

Sanders, a Vermont independent whos led the charge for single payer, had vowed to protest the amendment and encouraged other Democrats to do so.

Polling shows growing support among Democrats overall for a government-run health care system amid Republican efforts to tear down the 2010 Affordable Act. A Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll in June found 64 percent of Democrats backed a single-payer or national health plans, while the Pew Research Center that same month found a majority of Democrats support the idea for the first time in three years of polling.

Still, Democratic leaders have long resisted advocating for a massive expansion of the governments role in health care, wary of alienating independent voters and hanging swing-state senators out to dry on whats long been a divisive issue.

The partys economic agenda released this week notably excluded single payer, but Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the idea is on the table among other less divisive options for expanding government-sponsored coverage, such as allowing near retirees to buy into Medicare.

Senate Democrats face a tough electoral map in 2018, raising concerns that full-throated support for single payer could bury the party deeper in the minority. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Tester are among those who have expressed skepticism about a single-payer system.

If Republicans Obamacare repeal effort collapses, liberal activists are hoping to seize the moment to push for single payer. But Tester dismissed the idea as just talk earlier this month.

In this environment, thats all itll be, Tester said.

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Democrats are facing growing pressure from activists on the left who, despite supporting Obamacare, were disappointed that the law left the private insurance system largely intact. McCaskill has walked a tightrope on the issue, telling constituents at a town hall this month that shes concerned about the cost of such a program. However, she said now she believes Obamacare should have included a government-run public option to compete with private insurers.

I was against it at the time, she said in early July. So I think I made a mistake on that.

Democrats hesitant to embrace single payer can point to several failed state efforts to establish their own systems.

Money has proven a major obstacle, with states struggling to raise hundreds of billions of dollars to ensure care for all of their citizens. Vermonts 2014 attempt at establishing single payer collapsed over concerns that payroll taxes on businesses meant to fund the program would hurt the states economy. In Colorado, a single-payer ballot measure opposed by the states Democratic governor was overwhelmingly defeated last year.

Californias Democratic legislature devolved into infighting earlier this year after Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon shelved legislation creating a single-payer system. It would have cost an estimated $400 billion per year to cover everyone without premiums or out-of-pocket costs, according to a legislative analysis.

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Republicans try to bait Democrats on single-payer vote - Politico

Democrats are confident they will be able to hammer home their newly unveiled economic agenda, even as health care and Washington drama dominate the news. And theyre planning to use the upcoming August recess to do just that.

Im branding our entire Augustdistrict work period as A better deal for theheartland, Rep. Cheri Bustossaid.

The Illinois Democrat, who last month was named chairwoman of heartland engagement for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said all of her events fromeconomic roundtables andmeetingswith local editorial boardsto her Cheri on Shift initiatives, in which she shadows people working different jobs will be framed around the Democratic economic agenda.

Bustos push signifies a broader challengefor Democrats: keeping the focus on their platformand connecting their plan toconstituents, some of whom voted forPresident Donald Trump last fall.

The goalis for members to come back after August and reassess what resonated with constituents, Bustos said.

Were asking all of our members to come back and let us know, how did it work? Are people nodding theirheads when youre talking about this, or are they looking like theyre confused? Or are there areas of it that resonate and are there parts that dont? shesaid.There will likely be a series of meetings on the topic in September, she added.

After some soul searching following Trumps victory, Democrats decided they needed to focus on an economic agenda to connectwith Americans who are feelingleft behind.

Months of meetings and discussions ledto the Better Deal economic platform, which Democrats unveiled Monday in Berryville, Virginia. The rollout garnered significant media attention, including live cable news coverage.

But one day later, attention shifted to the Senate health care votes, Trumps berating of his attorney general, and the ongoingRussia investigation.

Democrats say they were well-aware that those other issueswould take over the news cycle but their rollout was timed so members would have an economic agenda to take home in August.

Every day in Washington theres some kind of distraction, whether its Jared Kushner having to testify in front of the Senate or whether its having Donald Trump tweeting something at midnight, Bustos said. The point is weve got 190 plus members of the U.S. House of Representatives who will be going home and talking about a better deal that we are offering to the people who we serve.

House Democrats will be given toolkits on the Better Deal platform, which is typical for an August recess. The toolkits include talking points, sample op-eds, and digital media suggestions, a senior House Democratic aide said.

That is the whole point of the August recess push, for members to go out and talk about this agenda and take it to the people, the aide said.

We wanted people to be able to go home and say, This is what were fighting for as Democrats, that were all singing from the same song sheet, Bustos said.

Bustossaidthe message could resonate in a rangeofdistricts, including liberal-leaning onesand more moderatedistricts like her own.Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzalesrates Bustos northwest Illinoisdistrict as SolidlyDemocratic, but Trump carriedit by less than apoint in November.

Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, whose downstateNew York district also supported Trump, called the platform a step in the right direction.

Maloney, who has also conducted a reviewof theDemocrats campaign arm following last years election,said Democrats would be able to relay their message to voters amid ongoing investigations and policy fights in D.C.

I dont think its a challenge at all, hesaid. I think its getting back to basics. Its always been part of our message but its important that we all get on the same page and talk about things that matter around the kitchen table to working families.

Democrats are expected torelease additional policy proposals under theBetter Deal framework in the fall, which could also focus someattention on their agenda. The Democratic aide said input from constituentsover August could help determine which policy proposals are unveiled first.

This is not a one day announcement, said Maryland Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen. Were going to be sticking with this, week in and week out.

Van Hollen, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee,said Democrats will have to be disciplined in talking about their economic agenda.

Sen. Tim Kaineknows well the challenge of penetrating a news cycle dominatedby Trump. The Virginia Democrat ran as Hillary Clintons vice presidential nominee last year, and is running for re-election in 2018 in a race that Inside Elections rates Likely Democratic.

The difference between 2016 and 2018 for me is I just have to run in one state, Kaine said. Its a state that Im very familiar with. And its frankly a state whose own experience on economic issues is very consistent with the [Democratic] message.

Kaine, notinghis experience as the Old Dominionsgovernor, dismissed questions about whether Democrats could maintain attention on their economic platform.

These are the kinds of things that Ive talked about in virtually every race Ive run in Virginia,he said. So Im not overly worried about: Will we be able to keep this issue front and center for folks? We will be able to in Virginia.

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Democrats Plan to Push 'Better Deal' Over August Recess - Roll Call

With Trump as president, it is easy to forget how utterly hopeless many Congressional Democrats are, including many who look like progressives.

The best indicator of Democratic corruption is its slavishness toward the lobby that is to them what the National Rifle Association is to the GOP: the Israel lobby (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and its satellite organizations).

The latest evidence of that slavishness comes in the form of growing support among Democrats in both Houses for legislation sponsored by Sen. Benjamin Cardin (D-MD) and co-sponsored by Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer that would make it a felony for Americans to support the international boycott against Israel, commonly known as BDS. Anyone guilty of violating the prohibitions will face a minimum civil penalty of $250,000 and a maximum criminal penalty of $1 million and 20 years in prison.

According to the ACLU, the Cardin legislation would bar U.S. persons from supporting boycotts against Israel, including its settlements in the Palestinian Occupied Territories (emphasis mine) conducted by international governmental organizations, such as the United Nations and the European Union. It would also... include penalties for simply requesting information about such boycotts. Violations would be subject to a minimum civil penalty of $250,000 and a maximum criminal penalty of $1 million and 20 years in prison....This bill would impose civil and criminal punishment on individuals solely because of their political beliefs about Israel and its policies.

Pretty amazing. Why would anyone support such a law? Yes, lots of people (including me) oppose boycotting Israel (although I certainly support boycotting the settlements) but how is it even possible to criminalize simply supporting a boycott to protest the occupation? After all, we boycott states and municipalities here at home to protest discrimination based on race, sexual identity or anything else. Most recently, the state of North Carolina was faced with a boycott to protest its policy against allowing transgender people to use public bathrooms. How can it be legal to refuse to do business with North Carolina but illegal to refuse to do business with Israeli settlements?

The answer is simple: AIPAC, which is the lobby few Democrats (let alone Republicans) are willing to cross. Here is its Call to Action sent to every member of the House and Senate telling them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cardin bill is a top priority of the lobby. As for Cardin, it is no surprise that he is the lead sponsor of the bill (1) because he never, if ever, deviates from doing what the Israeli government wants and (2) he is one of the top recipients of campaign contributions from AIPAC officers and associated donors. The same can be said of Schumer who has always carried water for the lobby. (Both senators opposed President Obamas bill to end sanctions on Iran in exchange for its terminating its nuclear weapons program.)

Am I being unfair to ascribe such venal motives to those Democrats who support this bill? (I dont mention Republicans because their support for it comports completely with their worldviews which is not the case with the Democrats). I dont think so because every single Democrat supporting this anti-free speech bill consistently opposes limits on free speech. Their support for this bill represents the only time they promoted legislation to curtail free speech. I cannot imagine any reason for this egregious offense against the First Amendment except to please AIPAC and their AIPAC associated donors.

Fortunately, this legislation can still be stopped. Here are lists of the Senate and House Democrats who are co-sponsoring this abominable bill. Let them know of your opposition. Just as important, if your legislator is not yet a co-sponsor, let him or her know that he or she better not become one.

Many years ago, the #2 man at AIPAC, Steve Rosen (later indicted under the Espionage Act of 1917 wrote me the following about AIPACs activities: A lobby is a night flower. It thrives in the dark and dies in the sun.

The same applies to those in Congress who, disregarding their constituents, take their marching orders from AIPAC. Its time to shine some sunlight on them.

The First Amendment does not include an exception stating does not apply to speech about Israel or its settlements. We cant allow a lobby and its Congressional cutouts to insert one. But, believe me, that is their goal and going after BDS supporters is just the beginning.

The rest is here:
Democrats Join Republicans In Bill Criminalizing Speech Critical Of Israel - HuffPost

Turning to a single-payer system, instead of trying to improve the Affordable Care Act, maybe with a public option, is a loser on the politics and policy

Democrats relish the Republicans inability to pass even a pathetic alternative to Obamacare.

For 7 years, Republicans have campaigned and voted to replace the Affordable Health Care Act. When given a real chance at success, with governing control, they were impeded by a president whos ignorant on the issue. Then, after Republican senators slipped behind closed doors to come up with their own plans, they provided products that voters, even some Trump supporters, overwhelmingly spotted as frauds.

As justified as the Democrats ridicule is of this, its also creating a trap for them: They overreach if they think they can now push for a single-payer, government-run system. Such a course threatens to be a problem in the 2018 midterm election cycle and certainly would be in 2020.

Turning to a single-payer system, instead of trying to improve the Affordable Care Act, maybe with a public option, is a loser on the politics and policy a fools errand, says Ezekiel Emanuel, a leading Democratic health care expert who helped craft Obamacare.

The pressure on Democrats is building, as conversations with several members of Congress suggest. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, leaders of the influential left wing, are pushing a single-payer system. In the House, 115 members have sponsored this initiative, and more state and county Democratic Party committees are embracing it.

On single payer, says Rep. Rick Nolan, D-Minnesota, rank-and-file Democrats are energized in a way I have not witnessed in a long, long time. Hes a veteran liberal who wins in the populist Iron Range district of Minnesota that Donald Trump also carried.

But this wont play out well for Democrats. If the United States were starting anew on health care, perhaps it would have been better to enact something like the systems in Canada or Australia, praised by Trump. But to try a radical overhaul, throwing out the entire system with a new one funded by federal taxes, would be a humongous jolt.

Changing one-sixth of the American economy would be traumatic for the system and the public. Look at the fallout from the far milder Obamacare changes or the agony the Republicans are currently enduring.

A public option for those people in the federal exchanges would be resisted by the insurance industry and most all Republicans. But its far less radical, and potentially more feasible, than a single-payer system that nationalizes coverage for everyone.

To their dismay, Republicans now own health care, whether they try to repeal and/or replace the Affordable Care Act or let the issue wither away. Obamacare today is far more popular with voters than any alternative Congress has suggested.

But Republicans could lighten the load of their albatross if Democrats also propose to repeal Obamacare and instead spend trillions of federal tax dollars on a government-run system. That debate might energize a depressed Republican electorate and turn off a lot of swing voters.

Its worth reprising the wisdom of one of Americas great pollsters, the late Bob Teeter, a Republican, who two decades ago foresaw that the political party that owns health care will suffer.

Al Hunt is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was the executive editor of Bloomberg News, before which he was a reporter, bureau chief and executive Washington editor at the Wall Street Journal.

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COMMENTARY: Democrats would make a big blunder by pushing socialized medicine - Las Vegas Review-Journal