Mediaboss Marketing

The records indicate that past Democratic primary voters turned out at nearly the same rate as past Republican primary voters (Primary vote history is the most readily available measure of partisanship in a state without party registration, like Georgia.)

Over all, 75 percent of voters who last voted in a Democratic primary turned out in the second round of voting, compared with 76 percent of those who last voted in a Republican primary. The turnout rate among voters who have never voted in a primary was 34 percent.

This might not sound like a great Democratic turnout, but it is pretty rare for the Democratic turnout rate to roughly match the Republican turnout rate, at least in a high-turnout election. Certainly, thats been true in Georgias Sixth: In 2014, Republican primary voters turned out at an eight-point higher rate than Democratic primary voters did, 77 percent to 69 percent. In the 2016 election, it was a three-point gap, 89 percent to 86 percent.

It has been true nationwide as well. According to an Upshot analysis of data from L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor, the Democratic turnout did not match the Republican turnout rate in any recent national election, including 2006, 2008 and 2012. Iowa has complete official turnout history dating to 1982, and Democrats havent exceeded the Republican turnout rate in any of the general elections over that period in the state.

The point is: This is about as good as it gets for Democrats, at least in a reasonably high-turnout election (unusual and imbalanced turnout patterns are more common in lower-turnout contests, when even a slight enthusiasm edge translates to a big change in the composition of the electorate).

The result is that the partisan makeup of the electorate past Republican primary voters outnumbering Democrats by 24.5 points was a lot more like the 2016 presidential election than the 2014 midterm electorate, or even our estimates for a more typical midterm electorate.

The bad news for Democrats is that the Republican turnout edge was larger than in the first round of voting in April, when Republican primary voters outnumbered Democrats by 23.7 points. Thats not because Democratic turnout was weaker in the first round than the second round; turnout was up across the board. Its just that the Republican turnout, which was particularly weak in the first round, increased by more than the Democratic turnout increased.

Mr. Ossoff countered the increased Republican turnout with an equal increase in turnout among voters who have never voted in a primary, who most likely backed him by a big margin. Its an inescapable conclusion: There isnt another way he could have received 48 percent of the vote in an electorate where Republican primary voters outnumbered Democrats, 49 percent to 25 percent. Demographics also offer clues that these voters backed Mr. Ossoff; the voters who havent voted in a primary are far younger and more diverse than those who have.

Over all, voters who had never voted in a primary represented 25 percent of the electorate, up from 18 percent in the first round.

The nonwhite and youth share of the electorate also increased. Over all, 18-to-29-year-old voters represented 10.6 percent of the electorate, up from 7.4 percent in Round 1, and more than halfway between the 6 percent in the 2014 midterm elections and 13.6 percent in the 2016 presidential election. It was also up from the 2016 presidential primary, when they represented 7.9 percent of voters in the district.

Similarly, the white non-Hispanic share of voters (as indicated on their voter registration form) fell to 74 percent of the electorate, down from 75.6 percent in the first round of voting. That, too, was about halfway between 2014, when white voters represented 79 percent of the electorate, and the 2016 presidential electorate, when 71.4 percent of voters were white. Turnout of Asian-American voters, in particular, was high basically matching their share of the 2016 electorate.

There was probably one big exception: Mr. Ossoff did not benefit from such a favorable turnout among black voters. They represented 9.3 percent of voters, the same percentage as in the first round of voting. It was also lower than the 9.4 percent from 2014 or 10.6 percent in 2016.

The stability of the black share of the electorate is pretty striking. In theory, higher turnout ought to have increased the black share of the electorate as a matter of course, just as it increased the share of other low-turnout young and nonwhite, nonblack voting groups. Our pre-election estimate was that black voters would represent 10 percent of the electorate in the second round of voting; our estimate before the first round was 9.5 percent.

From the perspective of campaign mechanics, this was a prime opportunity for Democrats: two elections for field organizing, millions of dollars, a high-profile national race, and great data (the same data used here makes it easy for campaigns to target black voters). Even so, black turnout lagged.

Taken together, these two factors higher Republican turnout and higher youth and nonwhite turnout roughly canceled out.

Democrats, unsurprisingly, are disappointed by losing in Georgia. The recriminations are already underway. There are, undoubtedly, things that Democrats can hope to do better next time. There always are.

But the turnout probably isnt the thing that should keep Democrats up at night. The strong Democratic turnout fits a longer-term pattern of Democrats matching G.O.P. turnout in midterm elections when the Republicans hold the White House, essentially yielding the same partisan breakdown as a presidential election. If the same thing happens in 2018, Democrats will be much better off than they were in 2014 or 2012.

The bad news for Democrats, of course, is that even this sort of turnout is no guarantee of victory. The battle for control of the House will be fought in large part in Republican-leaning districts like Georgias Sixth, and a strong Democratic turnout alone probably wont be enough to win a high-turnout election. In many districts, the Democrats will be burdened by the additional challenge of mobilizing young, nonwhite and perhaps especially black voters.

Even a very impressive turnout like the one in Georgias Sixth might still leave them with an electorate no more favorable than the one that elected Donald J. Trump in November.

Follow this link:
Democrats' Turnout in Georgia Blew Past Typical Off-Year Levels - New York Times

The House Ethics Committee said Monday it is reviewing charges lodged against two high-profile Democratic lawmakers and a senior Democratic aide.

The lawmakers facing an ethics review are Rep. John Conyers Jr. (Mich), the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee and the longest-serving sitting House member, and Rep. Ben Ray Lujn (N.M.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The staffer is Michael E. Collins, chief of staff to Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.).

Statements released Monday by the Ethics Committee did not detail the allegations against the three men, which were forwarded to the committee by the independent Office of Congressional Ethics based on a substantial reason to believe a violation has occurred.

The cases will come up for further review on Aug. 9, at which point the Office of Congressional Ethicsreport in each case will be made public and the Ethics Committee can launch a more serious investigation, dismiss the allegations or extend its review.

The Committee notes that the mere fact of a referral or an extension, and the mandatory disclosure of such an extension and the name of the subject of the matter, does not itself indicate that any violation has occurred, or reflect any judgment on behalf of the Committee, the panel said in each case.

A spokesman for Lujn, who is in charge of electing Democrats to the House, said the investigation is linked to a complaint filed by a conservative watchdog group last year about the sit-in led by Democrats on the House floor in response to the Orlando nightclub shooting.

The Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust said Lujn improperly used images of Democrats on the House floor in fundraising emails. Do you stand with us? one Lujn solicitation read. Chip in $24 toward our emergency fundraising goal $1 for every hour weve been in the well of the House chamber demanding action.

This announcement is the result of a frivolous complaint, filed by a highly partisan outside group about activities during the sit-in last year a complaint that is without merit, said spokesman Joe Shoemaker. Congressman Lujn is committed to abiding by House rules, is confident he has done so in this case, and looks forward to a timely resolution by the Ethics Committee.

The Conyers investigation appears to concern the departure of a former staffer to the 88-year-old congressman. On Feb. 8, the OCE found the aide, Cynthia Martin, received compensation from the House of Representatives at a time when she may no longer have been working for the House for several months last year a violation of House rules that could implicate Conyers if he approved or was aware of improper payments.

This is not a new controversy, but rather involves the same matter that the Office of Congressional Ethics released back in February, said a statement released Monday by a Conyers spokeswoman. Rep. Conyers office has worked diligently at all times to comply with the rules, is cooperating with the Ethics Committee, and is confident that this matter can be swiftly resolved.

Brenda Jones, a spokesman for Lewis, did not describe the nature of the allegations against Collins, but said that Collins respects the process of ethics review and is cooperating with the committee.

The Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trustfiled a separate complaint against Collins in January, alleging that he improperly held dual roles on Lewiss official staff and his campaign and that in the latter role, he accepted an excessive salary of $27,495. Collins denied any wrongdoing at the time.

Read more:
House Ethics Committee is reviewing allegations against three Democrats - Washington Post

By Jon Ossoff By Jon Ossoff June 26 at 4:04 PM

Jon Ossoff is chief executive of Insight TWI and was the Democratic candidate for Congress in the special election for Georgias 6th Congressional District.

On Nov. 9, Americans awakened to a startling reality: In the absence of broad, enduring citizen engagement, the door is left open for darkness to creep in and gain a foothold in our democracy.

Amid that awakening, I launched my improbable campaign for Georgias 6th Congressional District.It grew into something bigger than I could have imagined.

Here in Georgia, in a district considered safe for Republicans for decades, we built a grass-roots organization powered by thousands of volunteers and hundreds of thousands of small-dollar donors.

The right wings national apparatus fully mobilized to defend the status quo in Washington at any cost. I was defeated. But we put up a hell of a fight.

Grass-roots politics, linking small-dollar fundraising to massive local volunteer organization, showed that it can rival the power of a right-wing machine comprising super PACs backed by entrenched interests and mega-donors. These outside groups were forced to spend nearly $20 million defending a seat gerrymandered never to be competitive.

From the beginning I believed that to compete in this district we had to run a different kind of campaign a campaign that put grass-roots organizing and personal contact with voters above all else. And our campaign tapped into and grew a grass-roots movement the likes of which Georgia had never seen before. This community stood up with undaunted fighting spirit, participating in the largest field program ever run in a U.S. House race and driving a get-out-the-vote effort that brought Democratic turnout in this special election up to general election levels.

The campaign reached out to tens of thousands of voters who had never heard directly from a campaign before. Some 10,000 more people voted for a Democrat in this off-year special election than did for Barack Obama in this district in 2012. Thousands of Democrats and new voters considered extremely unlikely to turn out made their voices heard.

The intraparty disputes that dominate national commentary on Democratic politics were nowhere to be found in the 6th District. On the ground, Democrats were committed to strike the first blow of this new era on behalf of decency and progress.

We ran an economy-first campaign centered on local prosperity and opportunity. I focused on the development of metro Atlanta into a world-class commercial capital, on affordable higher education and technical training, on research and development to drive innovation in Georgias tech sector, on renewal of our transportation infrastructure and a commitment to fiscal responsibility, on pointing out that taxpayers are rightfully upset that the federal government wastes hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

We paired this economic platform with an unwavering support for a womans right to choose, Americans with preexisting conditions, criminal-justice reform, Medicare and Medicaid, voting rights, immigration reform, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights, anti-corruption efforts and U.S. leadership to fight climate change. We built a coalition that generated massive Democratic turnout, engaged communities long ignored by local political leadership, and final vote tallies will likely show that we won a majority of independents. And in districts like Georgias 6th, we will not compete unless we build coalitions.

I remained committed to civility and optimism throughout the campaign, and I remain committed to civility and optimism now. Hope, decency and unity are not mere catchwords. Theyre essential to the defense of our republic at a time when hatred and deception have become the dominant forces in American politics.

Its difficult to convey the depth of my gratitude to the hundreds of thousands of people who made this effort possible, giving new voice and agency to thousands of Georgians. In particular, the extraordinary determination and hard work of female activists here in Georgia was the beating heart of the campaign. The grass-roots organization that we built neighborhood by neighborhood is intact, battle-hardened and ready for the future.

We lost, but I am proud of the campaign we ran, and I am proud of my community for standing up against the odds. I launched this campaign believing that America can become stronger, more prosperous and more secure only if we stay true to the values that unite us. I still believe that, and Im not done fighting.

Follow this link:
Jon Ossoff: Lessons for Democrats from the Georgia election - Washington Post

As the night progressed, Bookers vigil on the steps attracted more and more senators. | Getty

By Seung Min Kim

06/26/2017 04:05 PM EDT

Updated 06/26/2017 11:11 PM EDT

Its time again for Senate Democrats to burn the midnight oil.

Senate Democrats launched yet another night of floor speeches on Monday night castigating the GOPs plan to repeal and replace Obamacare a talk-a-thon led by Sens. Patty Murray of Washington and Mazie Hirono of Hawaii that ran several hours after the Senates 5:30 p.m. votes.

Story Continued Below

And while Democrats took turns taking the floor inside the chamber, a much more rambunctious rally was unfolding outside on the Capitol steps in the relatively cool June night. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), along with Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), settled outside shortly after 7 p.m. and began streaming their talk blasting the GOPs efforts to dismantle the seven-year-old health care law.

As the night progressed, Bookers vigil on the steps attracted more and more senators, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat, joined in. Several other Democratic senators including Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Jeff Merkley of Oregon joined in for large chunks of the impromptu demonstration that attracted hundreds.

Right now, the biggest enemy we face is not a handful of senators blocking health care for millions, but its the silence of the many who have the power to do something about this, Booker said around 11 p.m. as the assembly was winding down. Remember, the power of the people is greater than the people in power let your voice be heard.

Murphy told the crowd that the senators didnt give anybody a heads up that several hundred people would gather at the Capitol steps. Booker urged the masses to Snapchat with the various senators who were there, adding: Extra points if you tell Durbin what a Snapchat is. And the normally soft-toned Casey roared to the group: The issue of health care is a matter of basic justice.

Light up the switchboard! Durbin roared to the group. Get on the phones dont be afraid to tweet.

A daily play-by-play of congressional news in your inbox.

By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Earlier on the floor, kicking off the round of speeches Monday evening was Hirono, who recently underwent treatment for kidney cancer and has spoken about her diagnosis as shes made her case against Republican efforts to dismantle Obamacare. Hirono is having a second surgery on Tuesday for a lesion on her rib, a spokesman said.

Democrats are going to keep sharing our stories," Murray said, "and the stories of our constituents to make sure people understand how devastating and mean Trumpcare would be for the people we represent, and to do everything we can to keep up the pressure to stop it."

Ben Wikler, the Washington director for MoveOn.org, on Twitter urged other liberal activists to pack the galleries in the Senate chamber Monday night to show support for Democrats and their late-night speech marathon.

Democrats also led a round of floor speeches last Monday that ended shortly after midnight.

Missing out on the latest scoops? Sign up for POLITICO Playbook and get the latest news, every morning in your inbox.

Read more here:
Senate Democrats rally against GOP health-care bill - Politico

Representative Debbie Dingell of Michigan called for Democrats to go on offense and attack the presidents perceived strength on economic matters with working-class voters.

We need to show working men and women we understand their anxieties and fears, she said, and show that Trump is treating them like just another politician.

By fiercely contesting a congressional race in the conservative Atlanta suburbs, Democrats had hoped to make an emphatic statement about the weakness of the Republican Party under Mr. Trump. Their candidate, Jon Ossoff, raised about $25 million, mostly in small donations, and assertively courted right-of-center voters with promises of economic development and fiscal restraint.

That vague message, Democrats said Wednesday, was plainly not powerful enough to counter an onslaught of Republican advertising that cast Mr. Ossoff as a puppet of liberal national Democrats, led by Ms. Pelosi, an intensely unpopular figure on the right and a longstanding target of Republican attacks. While Mr. Ossoff made inroads by exploiting Mr. Trumps unpopularity and a backlash against health care legislation approved in the House, Democrats said they would have to do more to actually win.

Representative Eric Swalwell of California, who is close to party leaders, said Democrats would crystallize our message on jobs, on health care in the coming months. The results in Georgia and other special elections, he said, should encourage Democrats to campaign across a huge map of districts. We need to compete everywhere, he said.

Representative Ben Ray Lujn of New Mexico, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, met Wednesday morning with a group of lawmakers who have been conferring about economic messaging, according to several people present who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Mr. Lujn told the group that his committee would examine the Georgia results for lessons, but he urged the lawmakers to portray the race in positive terms in their public comments, stressing that Democrats have consistently exceeded their historical performance in a series of special elections fought in solidly Republican territory.

It was in the meeting with Mr. Lujn that Mr. Crdenas, a member of the Democratic leadership, brought up Ms. Pelosis role in the Georgia race, calling it the elephant in the room. Ms. Pelosi was not present.

A spokeswoman for Mr. Crdenas, while acknowledging his comment, said he had invoked the leader in the context of what can be done to stand up to those attacks in the future.

Ms. Pelosi has consistently rejected calls to step down, and there was little indication that her leadership post was at risk. She responded to the election results in a Dear Colleague letter to Democratic lawmakers late Wednesday, underscoring the partys improving performance in conservative areas and saying that every effort was made to win in Georgia.

But Ms. Pelosi also said it was time for Democrats to put forth our message, and promised an economic one that we can all embrace and utilize in our districts.

She did not directly address the sometimes caustic criticism of her leadership from skeptics within the party. Several lawmakers who have opposed her in the past argued that Ms. Pelosi would undermine the partys candidates for as long as she holds her post.

Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, an open critic of Ms. Pelosi, called the Georgia result frustrating and urged a shake-up at the top of the party.

Representative Kathleen Rice of New York told CNN the entire Democratic leadership team should go.

Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio, who tried to unseat Ms. Pelosi as House minority leader late last fall, said she remained a political millstone for Democrats. But Mr. Ryan said the Democratic brand had also become toxic in much of the country because voters saw Democrats as not being able to connect with the issues they care about.

Our brand is worse than Trump, he said.

A top aide to Ms. Pelosi dismissed the idea that her lightning-rod status might have hurt the Democratic effort in Georgia, and pointed out that in some polls the Republican speaker, Paul D. Ryan, is viewed even more dismally.

Any Democratic leader would become a target for the right, said the aide, Drew Hammill, Ms. Pelosis deputy chief of staff.

Republicans blew through millions to keep a ruby red seat and in their desperate rush to stop the hemorrhaging, theyve returned to demonizing the partys strongest fund-raiser and consensus builder, he said. They dont have Clinton or Obama, so this is what they do.

But in a possible omen, the first Democratic candidate to announce his campaign after the Georgia defeat immediately vowed not to support Ms. Pelosi for leader. Joe Cunningham, a South Carolina lawyer challenging Representative Mark Sanford, said Democrats needed new leadership now.

Even Democrats who are not openly antagonistic toward Ms. Pelosi acknowledged that a decade of Republican attacks had taken a toll: Its pretty difficult to undo the demonization of anyone, said Representative Bill Pascrell Jr. of New Jersey.

In some respects, the sniping over the Democrats campaign message mirrors a larger divide in the Democratic Party, dating to the 2016 presidential primary contest and earlier. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and his supporters have pressed Democrats to embrace a more bluntly populist message, assailing wealthy special interests and endorsing the expansion of social welfare programs, while more moderate Democrats in the party leadership have favored an approach closer to Mr. Ossoffs.

But in four contested special elections in Republican districts including two, in Kansas and Montana, featuring Sanders-style insurgents neither method provided the party with a breakthrough victory.

In the absence of a smashing win that might have settled the left-versus-center debate, Democrats may face a longer process of internal deliberation before they settle on an approach that is broadly acceptable in the party.

Part of the Democrats challenge now is that the jobless rate is low, and many of the districts they are targeting are a lot like the Georgia seat: thriving suburbs filled with voters who have only watched their portfolios grow since Mr. Trump took office.

Even as they smarted from their defeat on Wednesday, Democrats signaled that they intend to compete across a vast area of the country in 2018. Mr. Lujn, moving to calm the party, circulated a memo to lawmakers and staff members that declared there was no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall in the midterm elections. He wrote that six to eight dozen seats held by Republican lawmakers would be easier for Democrats to capture than Georgias Sixth.

Citing snippets of private polling, Mr. Lujn said there were Republican seats in southern Arizona and Florida, northern New Jersey and the Kansas City, Kan., suburbs, where Democratic challengers were already ahead of Republican incumbents.

Democrats need to win 24 Republican-held seats to win control of the House.

On the Republican side, jubilation over the victory in Georgia mixed with lingering unease about the overall political environment. While Ms. Handel defeated Mr. Ossoff by about 10,000 votes and nearly four percentage points, Republican outside groups had to spend $18 million defending a district where the partys candidates had won easily for decades.

And on the same night, a little-watched special election in South Carolina gave Republicans another scare, as an obscure Democrat, Archie Parnell, came within 3,000 votes of capturing a solidly Republican congressional district, with voter turnout far behind the Georgia race.

Nick Everhart, a Republican strategist in Ohio, said the party should not allow its relief at having kept Democrats at bay to turn into complacency. Up to this point, he said, Republicans have been beating Democrats only on solidly red turf.

To pretend that there are not serious enthusiasm-gap issues with the G.O.P. base and, more crucially, independents fleeing, is missing the lessons that need to be learned before truly competitive seats are on the board, Mr. Everhart said.

Still, the immediate aftermath of the Georgia election was plainly tougher on the Democratic side, as the party endured a fourth special election that ended with a better-than-usual showing by a defeated Democrat. That pattern may put Democrats on track to gain power in the 2018 elections, but 17 months is a long wait for a party so hungry to win.

Emily Cochrane contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on June 22, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Democrats Fume As Georgia Loss Deepens Discord.

Go here to read the rest:
Democrats Seethe After Georgia Loss: Our Brand Is Worse ...