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The comparison seems apt on paper. Northam boasts support from all of the state's prominent Democrats and has a lengthy career in state government, which helped make him the consensus pick of the party establishment. Perriello, meanwhile, entered the race late, has zero experience in state government and is running as an unabashed liberal.

Tribbett believes Perriello's run is a test case for Democrats in Virginia.

"The Democratic model in Virginia for several decades has been trying to get elected in a red state," he said. "Now that Virginia is a blue state and it looks like it is getting bluer, the model for electing a governor in Virginia has changed."

Northam represents the type of successful candidates that Virginia Democrats have run for years. Governor-turned-Senator Mark Warner once proudly boasted his "A" rating from the National Rifle Association, talked up his "Sportsmen for Warner" advocacy group and embraced the endorsement of NASCAR stars.

In 2017, the two gubernatorial candidates are fighting over their mixed record on 2nd Amendment issues. Perriello is distancing himself from his own A rating from the NRA as a member of Congress. Northam is spinning a perfect 100% legislative voting record in 2013 from the Virginia Citizens Defense League, a local gun rights advocacy group.

"I can't imagine Chuck Robb or Gerry Baliles or Mark Warner or Tim Kaine running the type of campaign that Tom Perriello is running," said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Center of Politics, referring to Democrats who triumphed in races for governor since the 1980s.

Northam has stuck to the strategy that works. He has crisscrossed the state for the better part of the past four years in his capacity as the number two Democrat elected in state government. He has stuck close to current Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who is term-limited under Virginia's unique state law that forbids governors from seeking re-election.

Northam is focusing on a very specific set of issues Democrats rely on, talking up his support for abortion rights, expanding access to health care and keeping the state budget balanced.

"Voters in Virginia are looking a bit more at the comparative qualifications," said Sabato. "Northam has two terms in the (state) Senate, one term as lieutenant governor. He is essentially next in line."

His solid campaign has helped him keep his support from the state's popular Democratic leaders rock solid. But while they continue to stick by his campaign, they are reluctant to criticize Perriello in any way.

"Listen, Tom had every right to get into the race, and I haven't said a bad word, and I'd never say a bad word," said McAuliffe. "If Tom were the nominee the next day, I would be the first guy out there campaigning. What matters to me is getting a Democrat elected governor."

And while Northam retains that support, Sabato argues a simple endorsement only goes so far.

"They think they lend their names and that is worth thousands of votes," he said. "Actually it is worth the vote of their spouse, about half of the time."

Free from the confines of the traditional campaign, Perriello has run an unconventional race, embracing the endorsement of liberal leaders from outside Virginia, holding a rally with Sanders, touting endorsements from former Clinton top aide John Podesta and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren as well as raking in funding from sources outside the commonwealth.

To date, Perriello has raised 51% of his more than $2 million in fundraising dollars from donors who do not live in the state. He has cashed big checks from figures like liberal activist George Soros and his family. All told, Perriello has raised more than $385,000 from people with the last name Soros. By comparison, 91% of Northam's more than $3 million in campaign cash comes from donors inside Virginia.

"It's the kind of thing that just a few years ago in Virginia would've beaten a Democrat," said Sabato.

"It is well beyond anything I have ever seen before," described Tribbett. "It is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Democrats to create an organizational structure that we've never had."

But Sabato warns that while Perriello's lurch to the left is what made his primary campaign viable, it could end up hurting his chances in the general election. Perriello's lack of state government experience and the fact that he has few contacts and connections in Richmond could be a drag on his campaign. However, despite Northam's obvious advantages in that department, his campaign has yet to seize on the issue in a tangible way that might expose Perriello's flaws.

"Either the Northam campaign is legitimately confident because of their private polls or they overconfident and lethargic," said Sabato.

Public polls show the race in a virtual tie, which means that the outcome of the June 13 primary will likely come down to turnout -- how many voters show up and exactly where they show up. If turnout is average, that could be an advantage for Northam. If turnout exceeds expectations that will likely indicate a surge of new voters -- people potentially energized by Perriello's underdog campaign.

"Older voters and the traditional voters will participate no matter what," said Tribbett. "The new voters that come in that add to your electorate tend to be younger voters. They tend to be people participating in a primary for the first time and they would be more open to a challenger to the establishment."

But at this point, most Virginia Democrats remain reluctant to pick a winner, demonstrating the unpredictable nature of the electorate especially barely seven months after Donald Trump's shocking presidential win.

The winner of the Northam-Perriello fight will face the winner of what has at times been an animated fight between Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, State Sen. Frank Wagner, and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, who came very close to upsetting Warner in a 2014 senate fight and is the perceived favorite in the upcoming primary.

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Virginia Democrats face first battle in war for party's soul - CNN

When a candidate for Congress assaults a journalist just before election day, you'd expect him to lose his race. Not in Montana this week.

Republican Greg Gianforte allegedly body-slammed Ben Jacobs of the Guardian newspaper. The act that witnesses and an audio recording suggest was unprovoked was, if true, disgraceful.

Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault. But he still beat Democrat Rob Quist in Thursday's election, which was believed to be close even before the physical confrontation occurred.

Why did the Democrat lose to such a faulty Republican opponent? One answer is the state's Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, who ordered the all-mail election, which means most votes were cast before the dust-up occurred or was widely known about.

But that is only part of the answer. Although Montana did not break down the election day versus early vote totals, we do know that in at least two big counties, Gianforte did better on election day than he had in the early vote.

This and other signals within the county vote tallies suggests that many voters just didn't care about the smackdown of a Fleet Street hack. Sure enough, local reporting provides anecdotal evidence of that. Michael Tracey, a correspondent for the left-wing Young Turks YouTube channel, talked to some election day voters, and got the sort of response you might expect: "I don't believe anything anymore," one woman said of the media reporting on the alleged body-slam. Another voter, a man, may have gotten closer to the heart of the problem: "I don't care what they say ... a vote for Quist is a vote for Pelosi."

Democratic leaders spent this spring on a "unity tour" that demonstrated not only how far they are outside the mainstream of political opinion, but also how unwelcoming they are of those within it. They not only disowned but perhaps also mortally wounded their own candidate for Mayor of Omaha because he did not sufficiently toe the party line on abortion. That issue has nothing to do with the mayoralty of Omaha, yet Tom Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, made a national example out of Heath Mello by declaring that pro-life candidates like him are basically dead to the national party.

This is just one example, but the incident helps illustrate how, even with public opinion running strongly against President Trump, Democrats continue to lose. They have staked out several issues, such as immigration enforcement, voter ID, and the trade-offs between environmental and economic concerns, and avoid common sense positions on these matters. They depict reasonable positions, such as that deportation is sometimes appropriate, as racist. And then they wonder why people in the heartland don't want to be represented by them.

The Montana voter's comment about Pelosi is ironic, because Pelosi is one of the few liberal Democrats who understands the need to field some centrists if the party wishes to build a House majority. But it also shows what an invidious position centrist Democrats are in when they are running for office in interior states. Even as they take abuse from zealots like Perez in the national party they are repudiated by voters.

Republicans' success in Montana may mean little in 2018. After President Barack Obama's big win in 2008, Republicans won no important elections until the fall, and didn't win any special elections to Congress until the following January. But the GOP went on to take the House in a landslide in 2010.

Republicans will now have one more House vote on healthcare and other issues. And it's all because Montana voters have reached the point where they would pick almost anyone before choosing to elect a Democrat.

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Montana is just not that into Democrats - Washington Examiner

Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)

Democrats are outspending Republicans in Georgia 6th race Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) In special elections in Kansas and Montana, Democratic candidates spent months waiting for reinforcements in races that national leaders worried were unwinnable. In Georgia, though, the cavalry has arrived. In full force. An Atlanta Journal ... Opinion: Democrats vs. 'deplorables' in Montana, Georgia's 6th DistrictMyAJC (blog) Democrats' participation trophy approach to Trump-era electionsRare.us all 26 news articles »

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Democrats are outspending Republicans in Georgia 6th race - Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)

FiveThirtyEight

Black Voters Aren't Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party FiveThirtyEight The special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District is the first major test of the Democratic resistance to President Trump. In one sense, the results of the first round in April were promising for the party. Thanks to an impressive Democratic ... Democrats Face Long Odds of Taking the House Back in 2018Breitbart News The Fusion PartyNational Review Democrats view veterans as strong candidates in bid to retake HouseThe Providence Journal Buffalo News -NPR Illinois | 91.9 UIS -Chicago Tribune all 108 news articles »

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Black Voters Aren't Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party - FiveThirtyEight

Plan ahead. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

President Trump does not want you to know that the goal of his tax cut for the rich is to cut taxes on the rich. The White House insists that it has no interest in protecting plutocrats pocketbooks from Uncle Sams prying hands. On the contrary, the administration says it designed its tax plan with no objective beyond lightening the burden on middle-income families, simplifying the tax code, and accelerating economic growth.

And if the resulting plan just so happens to redistribute trillions of dollars from the governments coffers to Americas wealthiest families, thats a pure accident or else, a mathematical illusion.

At his confirmation hearing, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin promised that there would be no absolute tax cut for the upper class on his watch. Late last month, Mnuchin allowed that he couldnt be certain that the final tax-reform bill would not cut taxes on wealthy households but he insisted that his number one objective was to provide relief to middle-class families. Trump, for his part, predicted that rich people like him would actually end up paying more under his tax plan, because of all the special-interest loopholes that it would eliminate.

Congressional Republicans have been similarly reluctant to forthrightly champion the upward redistribution of wealth. Instead, Paul Ryan has invited voters to consider how neat it would be if all tax forms were printed on very small pieces of paper.

Of course, the number one objective of all Republican tax plans is to relieve the economic anxiety of Americas wealthiest people. Ryans plan illustrates this fact in stark terms the Speakers bill would ultimately deliver 99.6 percent of its tax cuts to the top one percent. Trumps indifference to the deficit allowed him to cut the middle class in on his heist, but his plan still gifts 50.8 percent of its tax relief to the one percent, and very little to those on the middle of the income ladder or below.

Exactly how much Trumps plan would simplify the tax code is unclear, since it is bereft of even the most basic details. But the lions share of its provisions from the repeal of the estate tax, to the abolition of the alternative minimum tax, to the 15 percent rate on pass-through income would deliver massive gains to Mar-a-Lagos customer base, while neither providing significant relief to the middle class nor advancing the prospects of postcard-size tax returns.

Still, the GOP has been rather successful in disguising its true aims. Nearly 75 percent of Americans oppose tax cuts for the rich. But a plurality of voters still trust Republicans over Democrats on issues of taxation.

In most cases, when a political partys donor base and fringe activists force it to adopt a heinously unpopular policy commitment, said party forfeits the upper hand on the issue in question. There are a lot of plausible explanations for how Republicans have avoided that fate with regard to taxes. But one is that the Democratic Party has utterly failed to articulate a clear, comprehensive alternative. As Voxs Dylan Matthews writes:

Democrats have every reason to make taxes one of their signature issues. Voters want the tax code to be simpler and fairer which is to say, they want the middle class to pay less, the rich to pay more, and for everyone to spend less time on government-mandated paperwork.

Republicans cannot deliver these goods because they are beholden to interest groups that oppose them. The libertarian billionaires who shield the GOP from popular rebuke demand tribute. And those billionaires along with tax-services companies have an investment in keeping Americans confused and overwhelmed at tax time.

As Matthews notes in his (excellent) piece, Democrats could offer taxpayers something simpler than postcard-size returns no returns at all.

Matthews goes on to explain that such a proposal would likely drive a wedge between voters and the GOP.

Democrats have no interest in maintaining Americans antipathy for the IRS, or accelerating the growth of income inequality. The party has plenty of internal disagreements on pocketbook issues. But there is a broad consensus on Team Blue that the tax code should be more progressive. It shouldnt be difficult for Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to unite most elected Democrats around a tax-reform blueprint.

Such a plan could combine return-free filing with a massive increase in the tax credits for earned income and child care, financed by healthy increases in the taxation of high-income individuals and multi-million-dollar estates. The party could also go more ambitious, and offer a detailed plan for overhauling the tax system with an eye toward simplicity and progressivity. Matthewss post offers a grab bag of neat ideas to mix and match.

So long as the White House is arguing against the status quo, its purported desire for a middle-income tax cut will retain a patina of plausibility. Trumps plan really would cut taxes on many middle-income households it would just cut them on the rich by a far larger margin, thereby jeopardizing funding for welfare programs on which the non-affluent depend.

Democrats are making it easy for Trump to say the second part softly. Right now, Steve Mnuchin doesnt need to explain why the presidents tax plan offers less relief to the middle class than Chuck Schumers does; or why shifting the tax burden from working families to the rich is actually bad for the former; or why its more convenient for taxpayers to fill out short tax forms than it is to file no returns at all.

The donkey party should do everything in its power to frame the tax-reform debate around the GOPs actual priorities. And the best way to do that is to put forward a plan for achieving Trumps purported objectives.

The Democratic proposal doesnt have to be fancy or detailed or comprehensive. It just cant boil down to Americas tax system is already great.

Nor is it for his Republican rival in what is already the most expensive House race in U.S. history.

Once considered a valuable U.S. asset, he was removed from power in 1989 and spent the rest of his life in prison.

Representative Matt Rinaldi says he meant hed shoot in self-defense.

Perhaps, unlike the president, he doesnt care for killer graphics in his intel reports.

Pretty much everything Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are doing.

In a bipartisan step, Illinois is set to join a growing number of states that sign up eligible voters when they do business with state agencies.

In 1960, overwhelming percentages of those demographics lifted him to the presidency. That coalition is broken today.

Trumps speech was appropriate and sometimes eloquent. But sacrifice extends beyond war.

After an overseas trip in which he played a role well beyond his job description, hes returning home to a much dicier situation.

By neglecting to show voters what a real middle-class tax break looks like, Democrats are making it easier for Trump to sell his giveaway to the rich.

He raged on Twitter Sunday morning about it. But he has engaged in the practice for years.

Before he was a murder victim and the subject of politically motivated conspiracy theories, Seth Rich was a real person with a real life.

She thinks Europe must now be prepared to go it alone.

The two men were stabbed to death after trying to stop a white supremacist from confronting two teens, one of whom was a Muslim wearing a hijab.

Americas exit from the agreement wouldnt doom the 195-country pact, but it would increase the danger the world faces from global warming.

Though Trump is unlikely to agree to the restrictions, it seems his scandal-weary staff would appreciate some legal aid.

Conservative media folk do not have to stop being conservatives to get that their own values and interests are at stake.

The smoke around the Trump administration is thicker than ever.

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Democrats Should Propose an Actual 'Middle Class' Tax Cut - New York Magazine