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The midterm elections are still nearly a year and a half away, and the political dynamics could yet change, but we shouldnt ignore the fact that history and the current environment are merging together for a potentially great set of elections for Democrats in November 2018.

The presidents party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, and its lost an average of 33 seats in those 18 elections. Democrats need to gain 24 seats in order to take back the majority.

President Donald Trumps job approval rating is slumping at 40 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, while 55 percent disapprove of the job he is going. Thats not good news for GOP candidates, consideringthatmidterms are often a referendum on the presidents performance and Trumps name wont appear on the ballot.

And Democrats also appear to have an edge in enthusiasm. From protest marches after inauguration to confrontational town halls with GOP members, Democratic candidates are overperforming in special elections. And with a 30-year-old former Capitol Hill staffer raising over $20 million in just a few months, Democrats are anxious for the next fight.

Of course, there is plenty of time for the political climate to change, but our Inside Elections ratings need to reflect the reality that Democrats have more takeover opportunities than if this was shaping up to be a status quo election, or certainly more opportunities than ifHillary Clintonhad been in the White House.

Weve changed our ratings in 19 races, including adding nine GOP-held seats to the list of competitive races and dropping one Democratic seat (Rep. Brad Schneider of Illinois 10th District) after the Republicans best potential candidate declined to run.

That means Republicans are now defending 39 seats on the list of competitive races compared to just 14 currently held by Democrats. That disparity isnt as large as prior to the 2010 elections when Democrats were defending 100 competitive seats and Republicans just nine, but just as its possible for the Republicans electoral prospects to improve, they could also get much worse.

Once again, there is plenty of time between now and November 2018. Well crown two Stanley Cup champions, the Washington Nationals can win two World Series, there will be two new NBA Champions, and the Seattle Seahawks will hoist another Lombardi trophy between now and the midterm elections.

For now, time should not be an excuse to ignore the fact that history and the current political dynamic favorsDemocrats and are good reasons to watch the fight for the House. For more detailed analysis of over 100 districts, check out the May 19 issue of Inside Elections.

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19 House Races Shift Toward Democrats - Roll Call

New York Times

Stipend Scandal Fuels Divide Among New York's Democratic State Senators New York Times The chamber was split, 31-31, between Democrats and Republicans, until this Harlem seat the tiebreaker was captured on Tuesday by a Democrat, Brian Benjamin, a 40-year-old affordable housing developer. But because of a coalition between ... and more »

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Stipend Scandal Fuels Divide Among New York's Democratic State Senators - New York Times

Common Dreams

Don't Like Betsy DeVos? Blame the Democrats. Common Dreams Prodded by grassroots activists and what's left of teachers' unions, Democrats went all out to defeat DeVos. George Miller, the former congressman from California, slammed her plan to create a $20 billion school choice program that would underwrite ... and more »

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Don't Like Betsy DeVos? Blame the Democrats. - Common Dreams

In a letter to President Trump's top budget official Tuesday, 18 Democrats said they will use "all tools available" if the Trump administration doesn't comply with a request by a federal ethics watchdog to submit the waivers.

The letter comes nearly a month after the Office of Government Ethics first asked the White House and federal agencies for the names of anyone who had been granted an exemption from ethics rules.

For example, if an administration official once worked as a lobbyist, an ethics waiver could allow that person to bypass the rules that are meant to prevent them from working on matters related to their lobbying.

Related: White House clashes with ethics office

Last week, Mick Mulvaney, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, asked ethics office director Walter Shaub to stop the inquiry, and questioned his authority to ask for the names of anyone granted an exemption.

Shaub on Monday insisted that the White House turn over the names by the previously stated deadline of June 1.

If the budget office "does not stand down," the Senators wrote in their letter, "we will seek the waivers directly ourselves."

"The Administration cannot dispute that Congress has the right to this information," they wrote.

The letter from lawmakers also mentioned Trump's executive order from January, which prohibits former lobbyists from participating in anything directly related to the businesses of former employers or clients for two years.

Lawmakers said Shaub's request is "necessary for assuring Americans that the Trump administration is taking its own ethics pledge seriously."

Mulvaney's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday.

Before Shaub's letter was made public Monday night, the budget office said in a statement that it "stands firmly in support of the highest ethical standards." But it said the request for the waivers had an "expansive scope and breathless timetable."

CNNMoney (New York) First published May 23, 2017: 4:26 PM ET

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Senate Democrats pledge to force release of ethics waivers - CNNMoney

At their weekend convention in Sacramento, California Democrats elected a new chairman, heard updates on the fight in Congress from the key player in the Trump/Russia investigation, and were encouraged to make universal health-care coverage happen in their state.

They still managed to leave the city in a brawl over the chairmanship and the national partys refusal to run on single-payer health care.

The convention, which came after supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders won swaths of delegate slots across the state, demonstrated not just the divisions inside the party but how easily they can be exploited. In California, Democrats have pushed the Republican Party to near-irrelevancy, and pushed through a progressive agenda of social spending paid for by higher taxes.

But progressives showed up with a mission: electing Kimberly Ellis to chair the party after eight years of John Burton, a proudly foul-mouthed operative who had never concealed his distaste for the Sanders primary challenge. According to the Los Angeles Times, California Nurses Association/National Nurses United was the prime mover behind rallies and demonstrations demanding that the party back single payer, and heckling if Democrats were weak-kneed about it.

Theyre going to be telling you how bad Trump is andhow we should all be okay with them because Trumps so bad, said NNUs RoseAnn DeMoro, according to reporter Christine Mai-Duc. You guys are going to want to boo. Theres a lot of good people to boo.

Indeed, coverage of the convention which determined control of the strongest Democratic Party in the country focused acutely on the public shows of division. NNU, which specializes in protests and visibility, made sure that activists were in force demanding single payer; in the crowd, plenty booed corporate Democrats. Republicans had a field day with a clip, recorded by the Sacramento Bee, of Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez trying to give a speech at a reception and being shouted over by the activists.

Hey, shut the f up or go outside, all right? Burton said.

Coverage of that moment, and of the conventions main speeches, demonstrated how much of an appetite there is on the left for stories of Democrats being weak on policy or sidelining policy to discuss the Russia story. A Saturday story in the New York Observer focused on the heckles of Perez and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosis speech.

Pelosi, who also doesnt support single payer health care,focused her speech at the California Democratic Party Convention on Russia as well, wrote reporter Michael Saitano. That version of the story rocketed around Twitter over the weekend.

In fact, Pelosi dealt with the Russia probein around 90 seconds of her speech, saying that Democrats would protect our democracy by demanding the truth about a Trump-Russia connection and that Trump and the Republicans in Congress must stop stonewalling our request for an independent investigation. She spent more than twice as much time on the life and death consequences of defeating the moral monstrosity of Trumpcare.

The Affordable Care Act enables every state to create a public option, Pelosi said. I believe that California must take the lead.

That was less than activists wanted, and in video of the remarks, cries of single payer could be heard rumbling under Pelosis speech. Yet the larger division came with the chairman vote which Ellis lost, and Los Angeles County Chair Eric Bauman won. Instead of leaving the weekend on a note of celebration, Democrats left in a tiff, with Ellis refusing to concede the close race before an audit of the vote was conducted.

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California Democrats choose new chair as divisions break into the open - Washington Post