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The 2018 midterm elections are a mere 557 days away, and Democrats are feeling quite confident. There are many reasons to think that we could be headed for a sweep to rival what they accomplished in 2006 when they took back both houses of Congress.

But at least one Democratic pollster is warning his fellow Dems that they could actually be heading for terrible disappointment, and he raises some intriguing questions.

Well get to those in a moment, but first we should acknowledge all the reasons Democrats have to feel good about 2018. The first is the widely accepted historical pattern that the opposition party does well in midterm elections, as voters express their displeasure at the president by turning out to vote. In addition, unless things are going unusually well or some historical anomaly intervenes the way 9/11 affected the 2002 election or Bill Clintons impeachment shaped 1998 voters in the middle often blame the president for whatever theyre dissatisfied with, increasing the ruling partys headwinds.

Today we learned that gross domestic productgrowth in the first quarter of this year was a mere 0.7 percent, and though theres no way to know what it will be a year and a half from now, chances are strong that President Trump wont bring us so much winning well be tired of winning. His elaborate promises will be all but impossible to fulfill, especially given the fact that by most measures the economy was doing quite well when he took office, with incomes rising and unemployment below 5 percent. He might be fortunate enough to see things stay as they are, but even that could wind up looking like failure.

Meanwhile, all of his weakness are on full display, and his approval rating sits at around 40 percent, lower than any of his predecessors in the history of polling at this stage of their presidencies. Perhaps most important, his election has led to an absolute eruption of grass-roots energy and activism on the left, with local Democratic Party organizations being overrun with new volunteers and groups such asIndivisible sprouting up chapters at a fierce clip. While many potentially strong Republican candidates are deciding to sit next years elections out to wait for a more welcoming landscape, Democrats are lining up to run: Emilys List says that while in 2016 it was contacted by 900 women looking for help and advice in running for office, this year 11,000 women have reached out to them already.

So thats the case for Democrats to be optimistic. Whats the other side of the argument? Democratic pollsters Allan and Sheri Rivlin have been going around Washington showing Democrats a PowerPoint presentation to try to convince them that they need to revamp their economic message, which few would take issue with. But more controversially, they assert that the assumption that Democrats will do well because of the midterm curse the notion that the presidents party will inevitably lose seats in the midterm is dangerously naive.

The midterm curse is this years version of the blue wall,' Allan Rivlin told me, referring to the Clinton campaigns belief that their hold on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would guarantee their victory in 2016.

The beginning of the Rivlins case for caution is their observation that in recenthistory Democrats have never won 20 or more seats to take back the House in the first midterm of a new Republican president, and this year they need a net gain of 24 seats to do so. Most of the truly enormous midterm waves have favored Republicans, especially those of 1994 (where they gained 54 seats) and 2010 (63 seats), both ata Democratic presidents first midterm.

Democrats do poorly in midterms, Rivlin argues. Republicans are rarely on the losing side of this. Its partly because Republican voters older, whiter, more affluent are more likely to turn out in any election while many Democrats dont bother showing up in midterms. But Rivlin is especially concerned with Democrats lack of a core economic message, since the economy is usually voters most important issue. We think we have an economic message, he says, but we dont.

And this has been a problem for Democrats for some time now. The voters have been expressing more trust in Republicans to get the economy going and create jobs than Democrats, Rivlin notes. This was true in 2010, 2014 and 2016, which is why in all three of those elections I was the biggest pessimist I knew.

What Democrats lack is a message on economics that can pass what he calls the Listerine test. Listerine had what Rivlin describes as a nearly perfect message: Listerine kills the germs that cause bad breath. Eight words that describe the problem, the solution and how it works.

The Republican message on the economy passes this test. Its simple, easy to understand, and explains both every economic problem you could think of and what their solution is: Government is the problem, so if we cut taxes and cut regulations, the economy will blossom.

Democrats look at that message and cry, But it doesnt work! Weve tried it before, and the Trump administration is about to try it again, but we already know how its going to turn out. Prosperity for all is not on its way once we cut taxes and allow more pollution. But heres the problem, according to Rivlin: Democrats have convinced themselves that the Republicans message is bogus, but average voters still respond quite positively to it, no matter how many times the policies fail in the real world.

And what do Democrats say in response? We say we care about jobs and the middle class, and then we list three policies. Rivlin notes that the specific policies Democrats advocate, such asa higher minimum wage, equal pay for women, or infrastructure investments, test very well in polls. But they dont tell a broad, encompassing story about the entire economy. We dont have this overarching answer to the question: Whats your diagnosis of the problem, and whats your solution? We dont share that with an economy of words, and Republicans do.

Id contend that this is a problem Democrats face more in 2020 than in 2018. Whats more important than anything else in midterm elections is which side is riled up and angry, and theres no question where the anger is right now. Yes, Democrats face a natural disadvantage because their base voters dont turn out at the same rates the Republican base does, but their highest priority for 2018 should be about keeping that base motivated and engaged.

That doesnt mean you cant do both things at the same time, however. A hundred percent of our attention is in pointing out Trumps weaknesses, Rivlin says. We need to take some of that attention to addressing our own weakness.

Unfortunately, he doesnt yet have the perfect answer to the what the Democrats Listerine test should be. He does have a collection of ideas he says Democrats need to explore, centered around things such asinnovation, strengthening the middle class and reducing inequality. But his argument is that Democrats need a focused project to work through these ideas and determine which one best describes the large number of policies theyre already advocating and will be most persuasive to the public.

In recent months, Rivlin has given this presentation to dozens of Democrats on Capitol Hill, in think tanks and among party professionals. When I asked him what the response has been, he said that at first everyone enthusiastically agrees. But that doesnt last. Then I lose contact with them, because Trump does something that requires an all-hands-on-deck response, Rivlin says. Everybody gets snapped back into oppose-Donald-Trump mode.

Thats understandable. But eventually if not in the next year then certainly before they mount another presidential campaign its a problem they had better solve.

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Are Democrats being overconfident about 2018? One pollster says they are. - Washington Post (blog)

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi / Getty Images

BY: Matthew Continetti April 28, 2017 5:00 am

Let's reverse angle. The president's first 100 days in office have been analyzed, dissected, evaluated. Not much left to say about them. What about the opposition? What do the Democrats have to show for these first months of the Trump era?

Little. Trump's defeats have not come at the Democrats' hands. Those setbacks have been self-inflicted (over-the-top tweets, hastily written policies, few sub-cabinet nominations) or have come from the judiciary (the travel ban, the sanctuary cities order) or from Republican infighting (health care). Deregulation, Keystone pipeline, immigration enforcementDemocrats have been powerless to stop them.

Chuck Schumer slow-walked Trump's nominations as best he could. In fact his obstruction was unprecedented. But the cabinet is filling up, the national security team in place. On the Supreme Court, Schumer miscalculated royally. He forced an end to the filibuster for judicial appointments, yet lost anyway. If another appointment opens this summer, and the Republicans hold together, the Democrats will have zero ability to prevent the Court from moving right. No matter what he says in public, Schumer can't possibly think that a success.

The prevalent anti-Trump sentiment obscures the party's institutional degradation. Democratic voters despise the presidenthe enjoys the approval of barely more than 10 percent of themand this anger and vitriol manifests itself in our media and culture. So Rachel Maddow and Stephen Colbert enjoy a ratings boom, the women's march attracts a massive crowd, the New York Times sells more subscriptions, and Bill Nye leads a rainy-day "march for science." The desire to ostentatiously "resist" Trump leads tobetter-than-expected results for Democratic candidates in congressional special elections. But the candidates don't winor at least they haven't yet.

Democrats feel betrayed. The Electoral College betrayed them by making Trump president. Hillary Clinton betrayed them by running an uninspiringcampaign. James Comey betrayed them by reopening the investigation into Clinton's server 11 days before the election. Facebook betrayed them by circulating fake news. This sense of resentment isn't so different than the sort Democrats attribute to Trump supporters: irritation at a loss of status, vexation at changed circumstances. The despondence of a liberal is alleviated when he sees throngs of protesters, hears Samantha Bee, scrolls through Louise Mensch's tweets.

Makes him feel better. But his party is in tatters, reduced to 16 governors, 30state legislative chambers, a historically low number of state legislative seats, 193 members of the House, 46 senators. The Democrats are leaderless, rudderless, held together only by opposition to Trump. The most popular figure on the left refuses to call himself a Democrat while sitting alongside the newly elected chairman of the Democratic National Committee. That chairman, dirty-talking Tom Perez, represents a professional, technocratic class that supportsWall Street and globalization as long as there is room formulticulturalism and social liberalism. That is a different strategy from both the 50-state approach of Howard Dean, Rahm Emanuel, and Schumer that brought Democrats control of Congress in 2006, and the anti-Wall Street, protectionist, single-payer left of Bernie Sanders. Perez fights with Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi over whether there is room for pro-lifers in the partyPerez thinks not. Pelosi enjoys the distinction of being an American political figure less popular than Donald Trump.

What is the Democratic agenda? What does the party have to offer besides disunity, obstruction, incoherence, obsession, and obliviousness? They haven't rallied behind a plan to fix Obamacare or an alternative to the president's tax proposal. They seem dead set against enforcement of immigration laws, they seem opposed to any restrictions on abortion,they seem as eager as ever to regulate firearms and carbon dioxide. It's hard to detect a consensus beyond that. Banks, trade, health care, taxes, free speech, foreign interventionthese issues are undecided, up for grabs.

For eight years President Obama supplied the Democratic message, provided the Democrats answers to public questions. Now Obama himself is under fire for agreeing to deliver a $400,000 speech to Cantor Fitzgerald. He is already a figure of the past: His hair gray, his legacy under siege, his time spent lounging on Richard Branson's yacht or listening desultorily to Chicago undergrads. The energy is with Bernie,with the identity-politics movements, with the paramilitary "antifa" bands, and each one ofthese overlapping sects are outside the party establishment Obama represents.

That establishment is just as befuddled as its Republican counterpart at the current political scene. "I don't know what's happening in the country," Hillary Clinton is said to have told a friend at some point during the recent campaign. This apprehension of distance between herself and the everyday lives of her co-nationals is one of the most perceptive observations Clinton has ever made. Her problem was she never figured out the answer, never came to realize that thevarious guesses she and Obama and other professional Democrats have wagered about "what's happening in the country"racism, sexism, nativism, gerrymandering, Citizens United, Fox News Channel and talk radio, Russiaare insufficient. What the Democratic Party has yet to understand is that its social and cultural agendais irrelevant or inimical to the material and spiritual well being of their former constituents.And until the Democrats recognize this fact, their next 100 days will be no better than their first.

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The Democrats' First 100 Days - Washington Free Beacon

Democratic Rep. John Delaney's flirtation with next year's governors race has inspired an early shadow primary in the state's westernmost congressional district, where a half dozen prominent Democrats are expressing an interest in his seat.

The wealthy former banker, in his third term representing the Montgomery County-based 6th Congressional District, has said he will make a decision about whether to run for governor in late June. A decision to run would set up a bruising primary for a rare open Maryland congressional seat in 2018.

An open seat would also offer Maryland Republicans their best opportunity to pick up a second seat in the state's congressional delegation next year. State GOP leaders say no candidates have yet emerged, but they expect interest even if Delaney runs for re-election.

The 6th District, which stretches from Potomac to the mountains of Western Maryland, is the most competitive district in the state. Delaney won re-election in the last midterm election by less than 3,000 votes.

Del. Aruna Miller of Darnestown is the second Democrat to announce an interest in running for the seat. The chair of the women's caucus in the General Assembly told The Baltimore Sun that she is "definitely in" if Delaney decides to pursue a campaign for governor.

A civil engineer, Miller got involved in politics after George W. Bush's victory in the 2000 presidential election. She and other Democrats said they are preparing campaigns for the district now out of necessity.

"In order to keep the district Democratic we're going to have to start as early as possible," said Miller, 52. "I'm going at it full-throttle."

Miller's decision comes days after Maryland House Majority Leader C. William "Bill" Frick filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission allowing him to raise money for the seat.

Frick, a 42-year-old attorney from Bethesda, has also said he will run for the seat if Delaney challenges Republican Gov. Larry Hogan next year.

"If Congressman Delaney chooses to take on Larry Hogan, we need a strong Democrat who can hold this seat," Frick said. "I am prepared to be that strong Democrat."

Three other state lawmakers and one prominent businessman told The Sun they will also be interested in the congressional seat if Delaney runs for governor. The number of people publicly stating their interest in a seat held by an incumbent of the same party is unusual, even when the incumbent's future is uncertain.

"People are getting their [butts] kicked out here, and they need someone to stand up for them in Congress," said Democratic state Sen. Roger Manno. "That's why I'm considering it."

When Rep. Elijah E. Cummings of Baltimore was considering a run for Senate in 2015, only one other high-profile Democrat announced he was interested in the seat, the Rev. Jamal H. Bryant. The Baltimore pastor ended his nascent campaign eight days later.

Though no Republican candidates have emerged, state GOP chairman Dirk Haire said the 6th District is on his party's radar. Former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino nearly unseated Delaney in 2014 even though national Republicans largely wrote off the district. Delaney has performed far better in presidential election years, when Democratic turnout is generally higher.

"If the seat is open," Haire said, "I expect it to be hotly contested and a very good pick-up opportunity."

Bongino has since moved to Florida, where he ran an unsuccessful House campaign last year.

The early jockeying among Democrats underscores the potential for a feisty primary in a region that has become the party's political center in Maryland. Last year's Democratic primary in the neighboring 8th Congressional District drew nine Democrats and five Republicans and became the most expensive House contest in the nation.

Then-state Sen. Jamie Raskin won that election. One of the other candidates in that race, Kathleen Matthews, is now the interim chair of the Maryland Democratic Party. Another contender, businessman David Trone, has remained visible in political circles. He told The Sun that he, too, would consider running in the 6th District if Delaney didn't.

Trone, Frick, Manno and Miller are scheduled to attend the Western Maryland Democratic summit in Flintstone this weekend an annual event closely watched by state politicos. The event is also expected to draw several potential candidates for governor, including Delaney.

"My focus has been on [running for] county executive under the assumption that John Delaney will continue his exemplary work in Congress," Trone said in a statement. "But if John decides to run for another office, he would have my full and enthusiastic support, and I would consider running for the 6th District seat before making a final decision."

Trone's interest has the potential to change the dynamic. The liquor retailer spent more than $13 million of his own money on his campaign for the 8th District last year, blanketing airwaves in the expensive Washington media market. If Trone appears to be taking a serious look at the 6th District, it would put pressure on other Democrats to begin fund raising now.

But it will be difficult for any of the potential candidates to raise money until Delaney clarifies his plans. Few will want to put money behind a candidate who ultimately may not run.

Frick and Miller said they have spoken with Delaney, and have his blessing to begin laying the groundwork for a campaign. Delaney confirmed those discussions, but warned against reading anything about his own intentions next year into them.

The congressman reiterated that he hasn't made up his mind about next year.

"I said I was fine with them doing it," Delaney said. "I don't think there's any downside to them raising some federal money."

Delaney has shown a willingness to invest his own personal fortune in his campaigns meaning he will not have to scramble to raise early money for a governor's race, and he has to worry less than others about Democratic challengers at home.

Delaney unseated Republican Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett in 2012 after Democrats in Annapolis redrew the boundaries of the district to favor their party. He defeated Republican Amie Hoeber by 16 points during last year's presidential election.

Del. Kirill Reznik of Montgomery County said the seat is "something that I'm looking at." He noted his legislative district lies wholly within the 6th District giving him a possible advantage in name recognition.

Reznik said repeatedly he thought Delaney was "doing a great job," and that "I actually don't want even want him to go."

The possibility of an open seat has also drawn attention from Del. Andrew Platt of Gaithersberg, who has some experience running in the district. Platt worked for former state Sen. Robert Garagiola's congressional campaign in 2012.

The Democrat said he is "taking a serious look at it."

"I think there are going to be enough millionaires and insiders in this primary, and I'm not one of them," he said. "You have to stop sending the same type of people to Washington."

john.fritze@baltsun.com

twitter.com/jfritze

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Maryland Democrats begin to line up for competitive congressional district just in case - Baltimore Sun

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) delivered the news in a phone call to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) Thursday morning. | Getty

Democrats are pushing a short-term government funding extension to the brink, renewing talk of a possible shutdown if lawmakers cant reach an agreement by Friday.

After House Democratic leaders vowed to withhold support for a short-term funding bill if Republicans plow ahead with a vote to repeal Obamacare this week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Thursday night objected to a deal that would unanimously approve a one-week stopgap that's expected to clear the House on Friday.

Story Continued Below

Schumer raised last-minute objections "because we still have to resolve the issue of poison-pill riders" before they pass the one-week funding bill, he said on the floor. The New York Democrat added that "we are indeed making great progress."

Democrats declined to elaborate on the nature of the policy restrictions holding up an agreement. But aides said that an agreement to keep the government open until the new fiscal year starts in October is well within reach, suggesting that the last-minute objections are likely to be resolved on Friday.

The GOP's planned Obamacare repeal still cast a shadow over the funding debate, however, after House Democrats threatened to oppose a short-term bill if Republicans pressed for a health care vote this week.

If Republicans pursue this partisan path of forcing Americans to pay more for less and destabilizing our county's health care system without even knowing how much their bill will cost Republicans should be prepared to pass a one-week [funding extension] on their own," House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland said in a statement.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi delivered the news in a phone call to House Speaker Paul Ryan on Thursday morning. Hoyer had a similar conversation with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California.

"They are in a lose, lose, lose situation," Pelosi said about Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare. "The minute they cast that vote they put doo-doo on their shoe, tattoo on their forehead."

Republican leaders still haven't made a decision about whether to bring the Obamacare repeal to the floor this week. But privately, senior GOP sources say a vote is more likely next week.

The Rules Committee, which controls floor debate, will meet Thursday afternoon but it's unclear what's on the panel's agenda.

Ryan dismissed Democrats' threats, saying he's confident the government won't shut down.

"The reason this government funding bill is not ready is because Democrats have been dragging their feet," the Wisconsin Republican told reporters. "I'm confident we'll be able to pass a short-term extension."

A Democratic leadership aide said Democrats are still open to supporting a short-term extension if the overall budget talks are "headed in a good direction and we just need time to do the paperwork etc."

But that cooperation is greatly impeded if Republicans attempt to use a [the one-week extension] to jam the Trumpcare bill through the House," the aide added.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that while he agreed with House Democrats on the importance of keeping the government funded before "rushing through" an Obamacare repeal, he was not yet prepared to ask his caucus to adopt the same strategy. "We're not up to that yet," he told reporters.

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Current government funding runs out at midnight Friday. After settling major outstanding issues over border wall funding and Obamacare subsidies earlier this week, leaders seemed on track for a deal, but all agreed they would likely need a short-term extension to work out final details.

Now House Democrats say its outrageous to ask them to negotiate a bipartisan funding deal in good faith while Republicans are working behind the scenes to jam through a bill dismantling Democrats signature legislative achievement.

Schumer sounded a far more positive note than Pelosi on Thursday morning in a floor speech, saying that I believe we are close to a final agreement. But the New York Democrat also warned the House against pushing through an Obamacare repeal bill whose "chances of survival in the Senate are small," citing procedural hurdles that would require the measure to clear 60 votes in the upper chamber.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said in a floor speech Thursday that we expect to pass a stopgap bill to give senators time next week to examine a longer-term funding bill.

Other Senate Democrats said they are supportive of House Democrats' anger over the Obamacare repeal vote but don't seem ready to commit to the same strategy.

"I certainly would be appalled if the House Republicans, at a time when people aren't paying attention, try to jam through a health care bill that will hurt millions of Americans," Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said, while stressing she had been in meetings all morning and wasn't briefed on House Democrats' plan.

But will Democrats hold up a one-week extension as leverage? "I don't know what they're doing in the House right now," Murray responded.

Its unclear whether House Republicans have enough votes to pass a short-term funding extension without Democratic help. Conservative lawmakers hate temporary spending bills and generally oppose them. Republicans can afford to lose only 22 votes.

"I dont have the power to shut down government. I wouldnt do it, its not in my value system," Pelosi said in a news conference Thursday morning. "Ive bailed them out several times so they didnt shut down government," the California Democrat added.

GOP leaders are still coming up short in their effort to round up enough votes to pass the latest Obamacare repeal plan. Most conservatives are on board, but GOP leaders are having a hard time persuading moderates to back the bill, which would allow states to opt out of providing key Obamacare provisions.

Seung Min Kim and John Bresnahan contributed to this report.

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Democrats push government funding debate to the brink - Politico

Tennessee Sen. Mark Green is President Trump's nominee to become Army secretary. Ayrika Whitney/USA TODAY NETWORK - Tennessee

Mark Green(Photo: Jed DeKalb)

WASHINGTON Nearly three dozen House Democrats are asking the Senate to reject Tennessean Mark Greens nomination as Army secretary, arguing he cannot be trusted to ensure that lesbian, gay, bisexualand transgender soldiers are able to serve without discrimination or harassment.

LGBT soldiers are willing to make tremendous sacrifices to protect our rights and freedoms, the lawmakers wrote in a letter. It would be deeply disrespectful to their service to appoint a secretary of the Army whose history of homophobia and transphobia makes it clear that he is not willing to do the same for them.

The letter, dated April 24 and made public Thursday, was addressed to Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, the committees top Democrat. The committee will be responsible for holding Greens confirmation hearing.

Thirty-one House Democrats signed the letter, including Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, chairman of the Congressional Transgender Equality Task Force. None of the letters signers are from Tennessee.

Green, a former Army officer and West Point graduate who was deployed three times overseas, was nominated earlier this month by President Donald Trump to become Army secretary. Green iscurrently a Republican state senator from Tennessee whose conservative philosophy lines up closely with the tea party.

Multiple LGBT groups have denounced Greens nomination, calling him a social issues warrior who has worked to undermine LGBT rights at every turn. One of the groups, GLAAD, has released audio from a radio program in which Green, discussing transgender bathroom issues and ISIS, said his responsibility as a state senator was to crush evil.

Read more:

Caitlyn Jenner latest to criticize Tennessee's Mark Green as Army secretary nominee

Muslims, LGBT advocates prepare to fight Mark Green's nomination as Army secretary

LGBT advocates bridle at Trump's choice to lead Army

Intheir letter, House Democrats mentioned some of the same concerns about Green, including his sponsorship of a bill in the Tennessee Senate that would have barred local governments and public universities from instituting non-discrimination policies to governthe private companies with which they could work. Critics say that shields companies that discriminate against LGBT people.

The Democrats also point out that Green co-sponsored a bill that would have forced transgender students to use the bathroom that matches their legal sex rather than their actual gender and that he voted for a bill that would have allowed providers of mental health care to refuse to treat LGBT people.

The Armed Forces have made great strides in welcoming LGBT soldiers into their ranks since the repeal of the dont ask dont tell policy on military service, the Democrats wrote.

Their letter also cites an Army memo accompanying the 2016 decision to allow transgender Americans to serve in the military. The memo notes that the Army is open to all who can meet the standards for military service and that the military remains committed to treating all soldiers with dignity and respect.

Unfortunately, nothing in Mr. Greens record suggests that he shares that commitment, the Democrats wrote.

Green could not be reached for comment.

But in a post on his Facebook page earlier this week, Green accused hiscritics of "cutting and splicing my words to paint me as a hater."

Green wrote that every American has a right to defend their country and that he has never considered himself anyone's judge.

Green also has come under fire from a Muslim advocacy group because of past statements he made that the organization considers derogatory toward the Islamic faith and its followers.

Reach Michael Collins at 703-854-8927, at mcollins2@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter at @mcollinsNEWS.

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House Democrats call on Senate to reject Mark Green as Army secretary - The Tennessean