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One candidate slapped on a helmet, a black leather jacket and rode his Harley Davidson across Michigan. His ads highlight his toughness on China and his support for banning Chinese travelers from entering the United States early in the coronavirus outbreak, a policy of President Trumps.

The other candidate calls himself nonpartisan. He denounces the way politics have become nastier and more divisive. His wife recently appeared in a campaign ad to talk about their young son who has asthma as a way to demonstrate her husbands commitment to protecting health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions.

Neither candidate running for U.S. Senate in Michigan seems to want voters to know whether he is the Republican or the Democrat.

For Senator Gary Peters, the motorcycle guy and one of only two Democrats running for re-election in a state that Mr. Trump won in 2016, the path to victory becomes much easier if he can persuade enough of Mr. Trumps supporters to vote for him.

For John James, the self-described nonpartisan Republican, success will come from the opposite situation: If enough people voting for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. cross over to support a Republican for the Senate.

The race one of a handful that could tip the balance in the Senate is among the most contested and expensive in the country. Polls show a tighter race than Democrats had anticipated, and both sides are fighting for the few remaining independent, undecided voters. In an election in which the parties have focused on getting their base to turn out, Michigan stands out as a place where winning the middle could make the difference.

Polls have varied but show Mr. James with an outside chance of helping Republicans flip a Democratic seat. A New York Times/Siena College survey found Mr. Peters up by one point, while others put his lead in the mid-to-high single digits.

Money has been pouring in. The outside political group leading efforts for Democrats, Senate Majority PAC, put $4.4 million into Michigan last week, federal filings show bringing its total spending in the race to over $18 million. The only state where it spent more last week was Georgia. Republicans countered by adding an additional $5.6 million to the $9 million they had already pledged to spend in the final weeks.

Its all been a bit disorienting for some voters.

Charles Gaba, a health policy analyst and Democrat from the Detroit suburb of Bloomfield Township, said that his friends who werent as politically tuned in were not sure which candidate was the Republican and which was the Democrat. Compounding the issue, Mr. Gaba said, is the fact that Mr. James is Black, which probably makes some people assume that he is a Democrat. Mr. Peters, a middle-aged white man, fits the stereotypical image of a Republican.

Some people are confused, Mr. Gaba, 50, said, which could contribute to the tightness in the polls.

Mr. James, a 39-year-old former Army helicopter pilot, has tried to steer his underdog campaign through one of the most difficult balancing acts of any Republican running for national office in this election. As a Black man on the same ticket as a president who makes overtly racist appeals to voters, Mr. James has been constrained and reticent in his criticisms, mindful that pushing back too hard could offend Mr. Trumps intensely loyal base.

And as a candidate vying for the support of nonpartisans in a state that has trended away from Mr. Trump since he won there by 10,704 votes four years ago, Mr. James has strained to prove his independence. Democrats have attacked him for his refusal to put greater distance between himself and the president, highlighting comments like his insistence that he would support the presidents agenda 2,000 percent.

Mr. Jamess campaign sees victory within reach if he can continue to tighten the race and Mr. Trump improves his standing; the latest data show Mr. Biden ahead in the state by high single digits.

Both parties are betting that despite the tribal nature of todays politics, there are still people open to the idea of voting for a candidate from a different party in races down the ballot. That is what happened in 2016, when winning Republican Senate candidates carried battleground states by a few more percentage points than Mr. Trump on average. In bellwether Wisconsin, for instance, Mr. Trump won with 47 percent of the vote while Senator Ron Johnson received 50 percent.

There is this thing in America called ticket splitters, said Curt Anderson, a Republican consultant who is advising the James campaign. That doesnt mean it will happen, but it happens all the time. Im not saying its not harder now or that the party bases arent more firm. But our data is pretty clear that theres a path for John, and were on it.

Not all Republicans are convinced. The Trump campaigns internal polling does not show Mr. Peters at considerable risk. And the money that Republicans continue to invest in the race has led aides to senators in races that appear to be much closer to complain privately to party officials.

Oct. 23, 2020, 8:57 a.m. ET

If Mr. James wins, it will be an embarrassing blow for Democrats in a state that they assumed would be a lock. Only one Republican, a candidate for the states Supreme Court, has won a statewide race since Mr. Trumps narrow victory four years ago. Democrats flipped two House seats in 2018 and won the governors race after eight years of Republican control.

Mr. Peters, 61, has been involved in local, state and federal politics for three decades from the Rochester Hills City Council to the State Senate to the U.S. House of Representatives and now the Senate. But he is not well known and has not faced voters since 2014.

Folks are just getting nervous about the entire election right now, he said. We know what happened in 2016 in Michigan. Hillary was up in the polls about where Joe Biden is right now. And we know how that turned out.

Hes seen as a workhorse who prefers to operate behind the scenes but not as a particularly dynamic campaigner. Unlike the senior senator from Michigan Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat who parlayed a leadership role on the Agriculture Committee into bipartisan statewide support in her past three Senate races Mr. Peters has been stuck in the Senate minority.

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Ed Sarpolus, a Democratic political consultant and pollster, said that hes been worried about the race for months.

What he hasnt done for the last six years is be visible and personable, Mr. Sarpolus said. What happened to his family in his ads? Youve got to tell your story, but hes not shown any of that this year. He looks like a professor, rather than an everyday Joe.

The motorcycle trip this summer may have been an effort to shore up support with his base of organized labor, but it didnt help Mr. Peters with progressives, an emerging wing of the party, Mr. Sarpolus said.

Mr. Jamess competitiveness is the result of fastidious discipline with his message which critics say has consisted of avoiding settings where he would face difficult questions and then providing nonanswers the few times he has been put on the spot. Voters have found his personal narrative to be compelling: a West Point graduate and combat veteran who runs a shipping business that is part of the company that his father started.

I dont have a problem with Democrats because I dont have a blue message or a red message, Mr. James told an audience at a fund-raiser on the west side of the state on Friday. I dont have a Black message or a white message. I have a red, white and blue message.

Big donors have loved it, as have individuals who give far less. Mr. James has raised more money than Mr. Peters has in every quarter so far this year except for in the most recent quarter, when they effectively tied.

In todays all-or-nothing political climate, a candidate who occupies the wobbly middle ground is taking major risks. For Republicans, there are usually just two paths: fealty to the president or outright defiance.

Mr. James has hardly declared his independence from Mr. Trump. His criticism of the presidents handling of the unrest over the killing of George Floyd was gentle. But his public appearances lately have spoken volumes. When Mr. Trump visited the mid-Michigan town of Freeland in September, Mr. James spoke to the thousands who came for the rally. But his speech came two hours before Mr. Trump arrived and by then, Mr. James was gone. Mr. James did not appear on Saturday at the presidents rally in Western Michigan.

According to recent polls, there are still large numbers of undecided voters and although they tend to lean Democratic, the pollster Richard Czuba says Mr. Peters hasnt sealed the deal.

One of the things we found, particularly with young Black voters under 40, there is still a sizable undecided chunk out there, said Mr. Czuba, founder of the polling firm Glengariff Group, which in an early October poll found Mr. Peters with a five-point lead. These are the people who Gary Peters needs to bring in and he hasnt gotten there yet.

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Are Michigan Democrats in Trouble in Their Senate Race? - The New York Times

President Trump told voters in Arizona that Americans are getting tired of the pandemic and accused the news media of exaggerating the crisis, as he sought to make up ground in a traditionally Republican state where the virus is making a comeback.

Your state is doing great with the pandemic, Mr. Trump said at a rally in Prescott, his first of two in the state on Monday. Theyre getting tired of the pandemic, arent they? You turn on CNN. Thats all they cover: Covid, Covid, pandemic. Covid, Covid, Covid.

You know why? Theyre trying to talk people out of voting, Mr. Trump added. People arent buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards, he said to cheers.

His dismissive remarks about the coronavirus echoed earlier ones he made Monday morning in a call with members of his campaign.

People are tired of Covid, Mr. Trump had complained on the call, to which several reporters had been invited. I have the biggest rallies Ive ever had. And we have Covid. People are saying: Whatever. Just leave us alone. Theyre tired of it.

He added, People are tired of hearing Fauci and these idiots.

After landing in Arizona, Mr. Trump complimented its Republican governor, Doug Ducey, saying that the state was really in great shape despite the fact that infections are again on the rise there. Arizona has had 231,910 coronavirus cases, the eighth-highest total in the nation, according to a New York Times database. Over the past week, there have been an average of 796 cases per day, an increase of 58 percent from two weeks ago.

In his rallies, Mr. Trump also revived his far-fetched warnings, clearly designed to appeal to affluent white voters, that Democrats want to destroy Americas suburbs by promoting affordable housing.

Speaking in Prescott, Mr. Trump boasted that he had rescinded a 2015 initiative requiring localities to create detailed plans to remedy racial segregation in housing. It allows low-income housing to be built, right next to your American dream, Mr. Trump said. What ultimately it means is crime will come pouring in.

Ive watched it for years, he added. Youve all watched it, right? Where they destroy these incredible communities.

He again harped on that message at a second rally in Tucson. I kept hearing that women from the suburbs wont like Trump, he said. I said, Why because Im stopping crime? Youre gonna have the suburbs be safe.

Recent polling has shown Mr. Trumps Democratic rival, Joseph R. Biden Jr., with a lead of as much as eight percentage points in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state that is growing more Democratic. Early voting has been underway in the state for nearly two weeks.

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In Arizona, Trump dismisses the virus and again claims Democrats will destroy the suburbs. - The New York Times

The Democratic Partys Soul of the Nation bus tour began its Colorado leg Thursday in Durango, stopping in Buckley Park, where candidates and party leaders milled with voters and helped hand out items.

I personally reached out to the Biden campaign some time ago. I was upset when Donald Trump said Biden had no law enforcement support, and I wanted to make clear that I support Biden, said La Plata County Sheriff Sean Smith. I dont like campaigning based on hate and divisiveness, and Im looking for us to go in a different direction. Thats why Im here today.

The bus carried yard signs, T-shirts, campaign buttons, stickers, window displays and other items for supporters to use as the party continues its get-out-the-vote efforts.

Supporters could also get their pictures taken with life-sized cutouts of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California.

The bus was headed to Grand Junction after the 1-hour stop in Durango, with a planned stop in Silverton.

State Rep. Barbara McLachlan, said, Its all part of our get-out-the-vote effort. We really support Biden-Harris, now more than ever.

Chase Jonsen and Tara Manack, a couple visiting Durango from Portland, Oregon, stopped to pick up some T-shirts and stickers, and said they hoped to see new occupants in the White House after the Nov. 3 election.

We just stumbled upon this, Manack said, clutching her new Biden-Harris long-sleeve T-shirt.

parmijo@durangoherald.com

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Democrats rally the vote at Buckley Park - The Durango Herald

The national Democratic super PAC Forward Majority is doubling its spending to flip the Texas House, bringing its commitment to over $12 million.

The political action committee said in early September that it would drop $6.2 million to help Democrats capture the majority. But in an announcement first shared with The Texas Tribune, Forward Majority said it is now surging its spending to keep up with Republicans in the homestretch of the fight to control the lower chamber ahead of the 2021 redistricting process.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, the chief national GOP group focused on state legislative races, had vowed to top Forward Majority's initial $6.2 million investment, and it raised $5.3 million into a Texas-based account between July 1 and late September. Of that haul, $4.5 million came via GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam.

"The RSLC and Karl Rove aren't going to call the shots in Texas in this election," Forward Majority spokesperson Ben Wexler-Waite said in a statement, alluding to both the national GOP outfit and a state-level PAC with which Rove, the famous party strategist, is working. "Republicans are hemorrhaging millions on Texas state house races because they know their majority is in grave jeopardy and that this is the most important state in the country for redistricting."

Democrats are nine seats away from the majority, and they also have to defend the 12 seats they picked up in 2018. Forward Majority has been exclusively on offense, targeting its original $6.2 million effort at 18 Republican-held seats.

Forward Majority said its spending surge was prompted by millions of dollars in TV ad buys by Republicans in some of the most competitive districts, such as those of Republican Reps. Jeff Leach of Plano, Angie Chen Button of Richardson, Morgan Meyer of Dallas and Sarah Davis of Houston. In two of those districts Meyer's and Davis' Forward Majority is teaming up with Everytown for Gun Safety, the national anti-gun violence group, to try to counter increased GOP ad spending.

Everytown said it is spending $600,000 to support Forward Majority's advertising against Meyer and Davis as well as to launch its own TV ads opposing three-Dallas area GOP lawmakers: Meyer, Button and Rep. Matt Shaheen of Plano. Those commercials target the lawmakers for not supporting proposals to stem gun violence, such as background checks on all gun sales.

The ramped-up spending plan by Forward Majority reflects just how fiercely competitive the fight for the majority has become. While Democrats had plenty to boast about on the latest campaign finance reports, Republicans in general had more money to spend heading into late September, and they are getting seven-figure aid in the final weeks from not just the RSLC but also Gov. Greg Abbott's campaign.

"We've long seen several paths to flipping the Texas House and we will continue to do everything we can to ensure Democratic legislative candidates aren't drowned out by millions in special interest money," Wexler-Waite said.

Disclosure: Everytown for Gun Safety has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Democratic super PAC to spend $12 million in battle for the Texas House - The Texas Tribune

Not only does Biden need a Senate majority, the size of the majority will also be crucial.

If he only has a cushion of one or two votes, Gary Burtless, an economist at Brookings, argues,

it would greatly reduce the chances Democrats could enact sweeping political and regulatory reforms, including major climate change legislation and rationalization of the Affordable Care Act.

But, Burtless continued,

Even a bare majority would allow Democrats to enact sensible fiscal policies, provide adequate relief to the unemployed, confirm centrist and liberal federal judges, and give the Democratic President greater leeway to reverse Trump-era regulations/deregulations.

Jim Kessler, executive vice president of Third Way, a centrist Democratic organization, put it this way:

A Democratic majority in the Senate is crucial, because controlling the floor and setting the legislative calendar is a must. A larger majority is better for Biden, but the difference between 49 and 50 is night and day. The difference between 50 and 53 are shades of gray.

The fact that Biden, a Democratic moderate, is campaigning on what may well be the most liberal platform since Franklin Roosevelts New Deal may help him fend off challenges from his left.

The Biden agenda is very ambitious, Kessler noted in his email:

The center and mainstream left are not far apart on climate and infrastructure and I expect a major package will get done. Covid relief and an economic recovery package will get done. Medicare for All is off the table, so theres a good shot at some Obamacare expansions and of capping out-of-pocket health care costs. There will be tax reform.

La Raja, in turn, pointed out that

unlike Tea Party Republicans who wanted nothing to happen, people on the Democratic Left actually want some policies and will be willing to compromise even if these fall short of the ideal. There is room for leadership to negotiate and maneuver.

Despite this, La Raja warned,

the prospect of intraparty divisions is real, with a restive left-wing of the party and understandable calls for aggressive, even radical change.

What are the most likely sources of intraparty contention, I asked. La Raja replied:

Policies related to race will remain fraught, particularly if internal debates appear to focus on issues that do not poll well with the broader electorate, e.g., defunding the police.

Another source of internal party conflict, La Raja continued, would be an outcry from Democratic campaign contributors faced with the prospect of higher taxes to cover the costs of administration initiatives:

Then there is the Democratic donor class. The next few years will require significant sacrifices from the upper-fifth and especially the upper one percent to agree to policies that require massive investments, that address looming debt problems and create shared prosperity. These battles will be waged with the people who donate the vast majority of money to political campaigns and assess the viability of candidates. There will be major arguments over how to regulate Wall Street, Big Tech, and other industries, which are sources of great wealth for Democratic donors.

Jacob Hacker, a political scientist at Yale, warned in an email that Biden will have to avoid stepping on any land mines:

The big issue here is staying away from raw nerves that could activate affluent localist resistance, which in turn could split the broad metro coalition that Democrats enjoy. Raising taxes on the superrich wont do that.

Hacker cautioned, however, against placing new burdens on the top 20 percent, among whom Democratic support is growing.

On race specifically, Hacker continued, Biden should pursue

what Theda Skocpol once called targeting within universalism broad policies that, by design and in effect, are most beneficial to disadvantaged minority Americans.

How about immigration?

Honestly, comprehensive immigration reform is likely quicksand. Biden should focus first on rolling back Trump policies, protecting Dreamers and setting up the next debate on the most favorable terms.

Can Biden, backed by a Democratic Senate, use the power of governing to strengthen and expand the Democratic coalition, to build an alliance of voters that improves the partys prospects in the future?

Frances Lee, a political scientist at Princeton, thinks not:

Presidents presiding over unified government typically face huge backlash at their midterm elections. This has been true regardless of how well they hold together on their partys priorities. Democrats lost their congressional majority in 1994 after they had failed spectacularly to deliver on health care reform with unified government under President Clinton. Democrats then lost their congressional majority again in 2010 after they succeeded in passing health care reform with unified government under President Obama. No matter whether they succeeded or failed on their major agenda priority, the midterm election result was the same.

The reality:

Neither party has been able to command enduring trust from American voters since 1980. In that sense, both parties are fundamentally minority parties. When given unified government, neither party has been able govern in such a way as to substantially expand its support and avoid the midterm backlash.

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What if Beating Trump Is the Easy Part? - The New York Times