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Democrats remain shaken by the loss of last weeks special House election in Georgia, but are taking solace from voter data there that yields hopeful omens for them in next years congressional elections.

Republicans retained a congressional seat they have held since 1979 in a suburban Atlanta district thats populated by many of the kind of well-educated voters who tend to disapprove of President Trump.

Some disappointed Democrats have argued that they failed because their candidate wasnt tough enough on Trump, and didnt take strongly progressive positions that would energize their most loyal voters.

That theory doesnt hold up to an analysis of voter-turnout data by John Anzalone, the pollster for the Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff.

Anzalones breakdown shows that Democrats turned out to vote in impressive numbers. There were 125,000 votes for Ossoff, more than Democratic congressional candidates had gotten in the district before and more than Barack Obama received in the presidential elections of 2008 and 2012.

We did excite the Democratic base, Anzalone said. Trump was the accelerant that brought out Democrats who would not normally vote in a midterm or special election.

The problem for the Democrats was that there was a larger-than-expected Republican turnout too, enabling the GOP candidate, Karen Handel, to win by 10,000 votes. Some Democrats had hoped that Trumps unpopularity would dampen turnout for the Republican House candidate; it didnt happen.

Democrats learned in Georgia, and also recently in Kansas and South Carolina, that its going to be hard for them to win in districts where Republicans have been solid, despite any Trump undertow. That would take some 2018 contests off the board for Democrats.

They also learned that the national-security card still resonates for Republicans; supporters of Handel hammered Ossoff in the closing weeks of the campaign for inflating his national-security resume and for working with the Qatari-based media network Al Jazeera. (Democratic polls also showed that Trumps favorable poll ratings in the district rose only once, when he ordered the bombing of Syria in April.)

Republicans spent millions linking Ossoff to House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, filming television commercials in her hometown of San Francisco. That tactic is likely to be repeated in other congressional districts next year.

Yet Democrats note that in every special House race and statewide contest this year, they have significantly outperformed their showing in recent elections even in defeat.

This makes them think they have a chance to gain the two-dozen seats theyd need in 2018 to take back control of the House.

They claim that they expect to contend seriously for more than 70 Republican-held seats in districts where Democrats have done better in recent years than theyd previously done in the Georgia district that was up for grabs last week.

Says Anzalone, This isnt bad news for 2018.

Albert R. Hunt is a Bloomberg View columnist.

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Albert R. Hunt: A hopeful omen for Democrats? - Topeka Capital Journal

RALEIGH The North Carolina Democratic Party has ordered Robeson County Democrats to re-do precinct meetings and hold a new county convention after finding that local Democrats did not follow party procedure when they elected their chairman and executive committee members.

The state partys 13-member Review Committee rendered its ruling Saturday after holding a hearing in response to a petition filed by several county Democrats charging that the process used to elect local party officers at the April 8 county convention violated the state partys Plan of Organization.The Review Committee consists of one representative from each of the states 13 congressional districts.

After several hours of testimony, the 11 members of the Review Committee present at the hearing in Raleigh voted 10 to one that state party rules were violated when local Democrats other than those elected convention delegates at precinct meetings were permitted to vote for their party leadership.

Basically the Robeson County Democratic Party is now defunct, Sheila Beck, a Democrat from Saddletree and chairman of the Lumbee Tribes Elections Board, said. Everything that the party has done since the convention, including the election of Pearlean Revels as chairman, means nothing.

No date for the precinct meetings or countywide convention has been set, but John McNeill, a former Robeson County Democratic chairman and mayor of Red Springs, said he believes the convention will be held late this month or in August.

The decision to allow all of the approximately 50 Democrats at the convention to vote for their party leaders, rather than just delegates from the 10 of about 40 precincts that were organized when the convention was held in April, ended with Ed Henderson, a Red Springs town commissioner who is black, not being re-elected to another two-year term as chairman. According to McNeill, Robeson Countys Democratic Party for the past 46 years has operated under a gentlemans agreement that the party chairmanship would rotate by race to guarantee equal representation among the countys white, black and American Indian communities.

The agreement, McNeill said, is that a member from each race can serve a two-year term as chairman and another two-year term as chairman if they choose to seek re-election. At the April convention, however, Henderson, who just finished his first two-year term and wanted another term, was defeated by Pearlean Revels, an American Indian.

This was Eds year to serve, McNeill said. By not following this longstanding agreement, the Robeson County Democratic Party kicked the African American population thats so much needed here to win election in the rear end.

McNeill acknowledged, however, that the gentlemans agreement that has governed selection of Robeson Countys Democratic leader over the years is not part of the state partys regulations and requirements.

McNeill said that Henderson did a good job as chairman considering the time and situation during which he served. Democrats took a beating locally during the General Election, with two Republicans elected to the General Assembly and Robeson County favoring the GOP from top of the ticket and Donald Trump on downward.

McNeill has blamed a depressed Democratic turnout locally, especially among blacks, for the results.

It wasnt easy to organize and win an election with the challenges of Hurricane Matthew, he said.

The petition challenging the convention results was filed by several black elected officials from Red Springs, Maxton and Fairmont.

The last convention, that allowed more than just delegates to vote, was not proper, said Charles Townsend, the mayor of Fairmont. Lets do things the right way, no matter where they lead.

Those defending the local partys decision to allow anyone to vote at the convention include Johnson Britt, Robeson Countys district attorney. Britt made the motion to suspend party rules and allow all Democrats present at the convention, not just delegates, to participate in the election of the party leadership.

If we want more people to come out to the convention and participate in the party we have to allow them to take part, said Britt. Historically Democrats have been the party of inclusion.

Britt, who is white, also said he opposes the continued use of the gentlemans agreement governing the rotation of party chairman by race.

What difference does the chairmans race make? In this day and age race shouldnt matter in who holds public office, Britt said.

McNeill said that he believes when the next convention is held and the state party regulations about who can participate in elections and vote on policy is followed, the results will be drastically different.

There was a huge mistake made at the convention, McNeill said. It was clear violation of the state Democratic Partys Plan of Organization . That plan is a 42-page document that tries to handle any situation that can come up. It tries to address issues to avoid conflict.

The Robesonian was unable to reach Revels for comment.

John McNeill

http://www.robesonian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/web1_John-McNeill_12017746736353-2.jpgJohn McNeill

Johnson Britt

http://www.robesonian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/web1_Johnson-Britt_12017746128382-2.jpgJohnson Britt

Sheila Beck

http://www.robesonian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/web1_sheila-Beck-Jones_cmyk20177461253772-2.jpgSheila Beck

Charles Townsend

http://www.robesonian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/web1_Townsend-Charles20177461616232-2.jpgCharles Townsend

Bob Shiles can be reached at 910-416-5165.

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Robeson Democrats ordered to redo local election - The Robesonian

President Trump may have a chance to break the legislative logjam behind healthcare with a victory on one of his signature issues: immigration.

Buried in a sea of tweets, Trump notched a rare bipartisan win in the House when 24 Democrats crossed over last week to support Kate's Law, a bill toughening penalties for criminals who illegally enter the United States multiple times.

The legislation was named after Kate Steinle, a young woman murdered by an illegal immigrant who had been deported five times. Now both it and another bill from House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., cutting off certain federal grants to sanctuary cities local governments that don't fully cooperate with immigration enforcement head to the Senate.

Trump highlighted both bills in his pre-Fourth of July weekly radio address, calling on "members of both parties to stand united with victims to stop these terrible and senseless crimes from ever happening in the first place" and implicitly challenging red-state Democratic senators who might be tempted to join in a filibuster of either one.

"This legislation presents a simple choice: Either vote to save and protect American lives, or vote to shield and comfort criminal aliens who threaten innocent lives and they've been shielded too long," Trump said.

That would make for a tough campaign ad against any of the ten Democratic senators running for re-election in 2018 in states Trump carried last year. The president needs eight of them to break any attempted filibuster, assuming no Republican defections.

Perhaps mindful of this, House Democratic leaders didn't whip hard against Kate's Law. House Minority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., initially told reporters he was "advising members to look at it carefully and see what their conclusion is."

Democratic leaders took a stronger stance against the crackdown on sanctuary cities, losing only three of their members. Seven Republicans voted against that bill. Both bills are nevertheless wedge issues that could be used either to fracture the Democratic caucus or give fodder to Republican challengers next year.

At the very least, the pair of bills could force Democrats to take a tough vote ahead of the midterm elections. They are also an opportunity for Republicans to put some legislative wins on the board.

It won't be easy, however. Senate Republicans are currently preoccupied by healthcare after failing to come together on a leadership-backed plan to partially repeal and replace Obamacare. The party has struggled to come up with an Obamacare alternative that unites both its centrist and conservative wings.

Despite running prominently on immigration during the presidential campaign, Trump himself has had trouble staying focused. Even as Trump met at the White House with "American families whose loved ones were killed by illegal immigrants," as he put it in his weekly radio address, his administration dubbed it "Energy Week."

"You lost the people that you love because our government refused to enforce our nation's immigration laws," Trump said at the event, where he rallied the House to pass the two immigration bills. "And that's even the existing immigration laws, without new laws. That's existing immigration laws."

Trump did lead his radio address recounting the meeting and talked about the two immigration bills throughout. But it will take more to get them through a narrowly Republican Senate, and some of the immigration activists who supported the president during the campaign are losing patience.

As Trump met with the family members of those slain by undocumented immigrants, some 60 radio hosts and activists gathered down the street for a Hold Their Feet to the Fire event demanding Trump deliver on immigration. "I will say that a lot of them feel that Trump made a lot of promises throughout his campaign regarding immigration and haven't seen much action in those areas," said an event organizer.

Trump has promoted stricter immigration enforcement, expanding the number of illegal immigrants inside the United States who are at risk of deportation. Many an Independence Day editorial cartoon will contrast the president's rhetoric with the Emma Lazarus poem inscribed on the Statue of Liberty.

Even without building the wall or signing new legislation, the United States Customs and Border Protection reports a more than 60 percent drop in illegal immigrants stopped or caught along the Southwest border from February to May under Trump as compared with the same period last year.

Shifting to immigration would please some of the hardline Trump supporters who believe the president won because he wasn't a conventional Republican. While the president remains deeply unconventional in his approach to Twitter and fighting with the media, which these supporters appreciate, he has often deferred to Republican congressional leaders on not just the timing of legislative priorities like healthcare and tax reform but the substance of the bills themselves.

On healthcare in particular, Trump has publicly supported whatever legislation House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have believed they can pass despite privately expressing misgivings about a lack of "heart" in Republican Obamacare replacement proposals.

A surge in working-class white support in several key battleground states that hadn't voted Republican at the presidential level since the 1980s delivered Trump a majority in the Electoral College despite former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's narrow popular vote edge.

Veteran conservative columnist Ann Coulter, author of the election-year book In Trump We Trust and a writer increasingly focused on immigration, has been arguing Trump has been too similar to a hypothetical President Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio since before the inauguration.

"Maybe the White House needs an immigration week,'" said a D.C.-based Republican strategist.

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Trump's coming immigration battle with Senate Democrats - Washington Examiner

Gov. Chris Christie lands, via New Jersey State Police helicopter, in Trenton on day three of the government shutdown. Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com

Senate President Stephen Sweeney said even if an agreement on Horizon was reached Monday, the shutdown would continue into Tuesday and possibly later. Monday July 3, 2017.(Photo: Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com)

As Gov. Chris Christie facednational derisionMonday forlounging on a state beach closed to the public amid agovernment shutdownhe ordered, the Democratic lawmakerat the center of a standoff over the state budget hinted that a compromise may be in the works.

Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto, D-Secaucus, emerged from a meeting withSenate President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester, andthe chief executive of the state's largest health insureron Monday afternoon to tell reporters that"we're making progress" on rewriting a bill that is a root cause of the budget impasse.

Lawmakers from both houses of the Legislature said they were put on notice that they might be askedto travel to Trenton late Monday night for a vote on the budget and possibly on legislation to overhaul how the state regulates Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield. If enough lawmakers can be corralled to holda vote and the vote is successful, that would end the shutdown and re-open state beaches and parksin time for the Fourth of July.

"I'm hoping that there's an agreement that everyone will sign off on so we can start the process of getting it all done tonight," Sen. Loretta Weinberg, D-Teaneck, said.

Blasted on beach: Christie says taxpayers can't join him on beach because 'they're not the governor'

Anger mounts: Closed MVCs frustrate North Jersey residents

Scuttled plans: Budget impasse ruins holiday weekend for families

An agreement could offera dose of positive news for the governor to counter the widespread negativity against him aftera photographer for the Star-Ledger captured Christie and his family on Sunday relaxing on Island Beach State Park, which is closed to the public because of the shutdown ordered by Christie.

Although Christie made it clear to reporters that he was staying at the beach and rubbed it in by saying critics should run for governor to get access to the state-owned residence the image spread across the country and beyond.

When Christie closed government he also sought to pin the blame on Prieto, the Assembly speaker, by plastering his face on Island Beach and other shuttered state facilities. But once the photo of Christie was published it was the governor, not Prieto, who became the face of the state's shutdown.

Christie, who polls say is historically unpopular and who had met with reporters the previous four days, did not make a public appearance on Monday after once again traveling to Trenton in a taxpayer-funded state police helicopter. In a rare move, aspokesman for Christie instead went on national television to defend the governor.

It didn't appear to calm the outrage from the public or tamp down the mockery of the governor on social media. Even his lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno, who is running to succeed him, condemned his use of the governor's beachside residence as "beyond words" and added a campaign stop near Island Beach State Park to "discuss the negative impact the state government shutdown is having on the economy."

The meeting between Prieto, Sweeney and theCEO of Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield, Bob Marino, was meant to explore whether accord is possible on a bill that would restructure Horizon, the states largest insurer, and require the company to dedicate excess surplus to policyholders and public health programs.

Assembly President, Vincent Prieto and Horizon CEO Robert Marino (background) are shown in the New Jersey State House, just before joining Senate President, Stephen Sweeney (not shown) and others in a meeting about the budget, Monday July 3, 2017.(Photo: Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com)

Christie has conditioned his support for Democrats spending priorities in their $34.7 billion budget proposal on the Legislatures passage of a bill to change how the state regulates Horizon.

Prieto has dug in against any such bill, prompting other Democrats to hold off on voting for a fiscal year 2018 budget for fear that Christie would slash funding for the programs they requested. Without a budget authorizing state spending, non-essential state government services and functions shut down at midnight on Saturday.

Prieto said Monday afternoon that he had instructed his staff to start drafting new legislation related to Horizon. But significantly,he declined to answer whether he would post a Horizon bill for a vote before a budget was passed something he has said for days he would not do but which could break the deadlock.

Another lawmaker in Monday's meeting, Sen. Joseph Vitale, D-Middlesex, gave an equivocal review of the conference.

"I wouldn't say we're any closer, he said. We're not farther apart.

Senator Joseph Vitale speaks to the press after meeting with Senate President Sweeney, Assembly President Prieto and Horizon CEO Marino. Vitale said some progress had been made Monday afternoon, July 3, 2017.(Photo: Kevin R. Wexler/NorthJersey.com)

Marino also briefly addressed reporters after what he called a very productive meeting with lawmakers. He, too,offered few specifics about what was discussed or whether a compromise was in the works.

I think you all realize that Horizon didnt ask to be in the middle of this situation but I do appreciate the opportunity to have met with them and expressed my concerns with the bill, he said. I think there were a lot of open minds in that room and well see where we go from here.

Email: pugliese@northjersey.com and racioppi@northjersey.com

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As Christie is mocked for beach photos, Democrats move toward shutdown deal - NorthJersey.com

Democrats say the political pain from Republicans troubled Obamacare repeal effort could be felt years into the future, and are already gearing up to attack GOP senators up for re-election in 2020.

Save My Care, a coalition working to preserve the Affordable Care Act, on Monday targeted freshmen Senate Republicans in Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa, demanding they come out in opposition to Senate leaders current repeal-and-replace effort.

They cited numbers from Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning firm, that found voters in each of those states disapprove of the Republican health care plan by double-digit margins and would be less likely to support a senator who votes for it.

There is clear evidence that supporting this health care repeal will do lasting damage to a senators standing with the voters in their state, Save My Care said in a memo ahead of the July 4th holiday.

Only one Senate Republican Nevadas Dean Heller is up for re-election in 2018, which President Trump lost, so Democrats have begun looking beyond next year in their search for political leverage in the health care debate.

The three current targets are Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado, where Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton bested President Trump by 3 percentage points in November and only 26 percent of voters approve of the SenateGOP repeal bill; and Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Joni Ernst of Iowa states where Mr. Trump won but voters tell pollsters they want senators to fix Obamacare instead of dismantling it, according to PPP.

Those senators havent staked out definitive positions for or against the draft Senate plan.

Changes are currently being made to the Senate health care reform legislation, and Sen. Tillis looks forward to reviewing the improvements to the bill. As he has said repeatedly, any replacement plan must be a net improvement over Obamacare, said Mr. Tillis spokesman, Daniel Keylin.

Ms. Ernst has said the status quo simply isnt an option in Iowa, where much of the state will have just one insurer to choose from on its individual insurance market, though shes seeking more input from folks back home.

Your feedback is critical. I will be closely examining the bill to see how it will affect insurance availability and affordability in 2018 and beyond, she wrote in a June 25 email to her constituents.

Mr. Gardner was on a 13-member working group charged with crafting the bill, though the final text was written by leadership staff, and the senator has said there should have been hearings on the bill. Though he has not said how hed vote on the bill, he did tell the Denver Post that insurance CEOs think it would help to stabilize the market.

Meanwhile, poll after poll suggests voters would now rather salvage the 2010 health law than embrace the GOPs alternative, leaving space for red-state Democrats to call for a bipartisan fix.

Work with us Democrats who are willing to meet you in the middle, who have always been willing to meet you in the middle, Sen. Joe Manchin III, West Virginia Democrat, said on Fox News Sunday.

Meanwhile, Mr. Heller, considered the most vulnerable GOP senator on the ballot in 2018, has been critical of the GOP plan, citing its sweeping cuts to Medicaid insurance for the poor.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it will keep the pressure on Mr. Heller anyway, with targeted ads over the weeklong Independence Day recess. While Mr. Heller participates in the July 4 parade in Ely, Nevada, web users near the route will be directed to 30-second YouTube ad that asks, What will Sen. Hellers vote on health care cost you?

The AARP is also running ads in Nevada and Arizona, where first-term GOP Sen. Jeff Flake is running for re-election next year, and in Colorado and Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan must defend his seat in 2020.

The seniors advocacy group wants the Senate to reject provisions that would allow insurers to charge older Americans up to five times what they charge younger ones, instead of the 3-to-1 ratio under Obamacare. The AARP calls the higher ratio an age tax.

Democrats are hoping to avert electoral disaster next year, when they must defend 25 Senate compared to just nine for the GOP. Incumbent Democrats face particularly tough reelection bids in states like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia, each of which Mr. Trump seized by double digits in November.

The National Republican Senatorial Campaign is pointing to the steady exodus of insurers from Obamacare, particularly in the Midwest, to hammer Democrats in those seats.

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Senate Democrats target freshmen Republicans - Washington Times