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Who would Democrats rather see as the GOPs 2024 presidential nominee Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis?

Yes, I know Democratic voters largely wont have a say here, nor can they make the Republican electorate vote a certain way. And its still early to speculate about who will win the Republican presidential primary, much less the general election DeSantis isnt even officially in the race! but as weve written before, early polls shouldnt necessarily get tossed aside.

Late last year, a series of polls from The Economist/YouGov asked Americans who they wanted to be the Republican nominee in 2024, and among Democrats, DeSantis had an edge over Trump particularly when respondents were given only those two candidates to choose from. When it comes to the broader electorate, an average of FiveThirtyEights polling of imperfect, hypothetical, head-to-head matchups of each man against President Biden, meanwhile, shows DeSantis with a slightly better chance than Trump.

So what gives? Do Democrats want their own party to face a tougher fight next year?

Democrats slight preference for DeSantis over Trump even if DeSantis might currently be better positioned to beat Biden could be about one simple thing: Democrats really, really dont want to deal with the former president again and might not currently be thinking in terms of whos more beatable.

I think most Democrats would be terrified of another Trump presidency, but I also think that most Democrats would not be happy about a DeSantis presidency and maybe think DeSantis is a lot like Trump but more competent or something, said Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University. I dont know if thats the right interpretation, but its definitely one that a lot of Democrats have.

Of course, we shouldnt jump to conclusions about Democrats preferred challenger based on surveys conducted months ago. And lets remember this isnt about Democrats liking DeSantis more, or even knowing much about him at all. A more recent YouGov survey, from late February, showed that Democrats had a slightly more favorable (28 percent) and unfavorable (67 percent) opinion of Trump than they did for DeSantis (25 percent favorable, 60 percent unfavorable), suggesting that many Democrats simply havent made up their minds about the Florida governor. Indeed, 15 percent of Democrats didnt have an opinion on DeSantis in the poll, while only 4 percent had no opinion of Trump. We see similar numbers in other polls as well. Its possible, then, that Democrats preferences are squishy at this point and will continue changing as they learn more about DeSantis after his expected presidential campaign officially kicks off.

But when it comes to a head-to-head matchup between the two Republicans, its not hard to see why Democrats might have a slight preference for DeSantis being the GOP nominee, particularly at this early stage in the 2024 campaign.

For one, its possible that Democrats just arent aware of his (current) formidability against Biden, and think of DeSantis as more beatable than Trump, who scarred them in 2016 by pulling out that impossible win. Plus, Noel told me that DeSantis might be seen as a somewhat welcome alternative to Trump, particularly to voters who are convinced that the former president is uniquely anti-democratic or uniquely a threat to American democracy. Unlike Trump, DeSantis doesnt have the baggage of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot or multiple investigations looming over him.

In other words, if Democrats really do prefer DeSantis at this stage, it could be more tied to their dislike for Trump rather than DeSantiss special appeal. And as DeSantis draws more of the national spotlight, and especially if he acts like Trump during the primary (as Ive predicted he will), Democrats could sour on him quickly.

DeSantis is more of a mainstream politician. So you might not expect him to undermine norms and encourage violence. But well have to see how things play out as we learn more and more about him, Noel told me. In order to win the primary, hell need to outflank Trump on some of these culture-war issues that the MAGA constituency wants. But the more that he makes appeals to those voters, the more likely it is that he alienates Democrats in the process.

The question is whether Democrats will change their minds as the primary goes on, especially if they perceive Trump as a weaker general-election candidate (although he was perceived that way in 2016, too, and we all know what happened then). Theres plenty of reason to think that might be the case: Trump-led Republicans have now endured three bad elections in rapid succession. In 2018, they lost the House. In 2020, they lost the presidency and the Senate. And in 2022, while they won the House by a slim margin, they otherwise failed to score the gains that weve come to expect of the opposition party in a midterm year.

A growing number of Republicans pointed their fingers at him for their partys disappointments in last years midterms, in which Trump-backed candidates were defeated across the country all while DeSantis sailed to reelection, flipping a historically Democratic county along the way. Indeed, theres plenty of reason now to believe that DeSantis or another Republican contender would be a harder challenge for Biden than Trump would be.

Its also possible that Democrats just dont want a redux of the 2020 election. In those three The Economist/YouGov surveys from last year, less than half of Democrats said they wanted Biden to run for president again in 2024, though more recent polling hints that they think their party has a better chance of retaining the White House if hes the nominee. This lines up with other reporting and surveys that suggest that while Democrats seem ready to move on from Biden, theres no consensus on who they want to run in his place. But that complicates the lens through which we should examine Democrats perceived early preference for DeSantis over Trump as their partys opponent. For example, Democrats who want Biden to be their partys 2024 nominee might prefer an opponent different than preferred by Democrats who want someone other than Biden to run.

And of course, the Republican primary wont just be between Trump and DeSantis. Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, is already in the race. But in at least two The Economist/YouGov surveys that gave respondents more choices than just Trump and DeSantis (including Haley, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Vice President Mike Pence, among others), no Republican candidate netted more than 15 percent support among Democrats. In fact, a plurality of Democrats in both polls (38 percent) said that they were not sure.

All thats to say that public opinion on this matter is not solid. As more Republicans enter the race, Democratss opinions of their preferred opponent will no doubt develop. But right now, at least, it seems that Democrats just want to keep the former president in the rearview mirror.

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Would Democrats Rather Face Donald Trump Or Ron DeSantis in 2024? - FiveThirtyEight

For the past week or so, weve been hostage to another strange Trumpnews cycle, a flashback to the many we lived through in the half dozen years between his escalator ride at Trump Tower to his helicopter exit from the White House. For a while, it looked likeDonald Trump was out of our lives and retreating to his own Palm Elba. Now all of a sudden everything is 2016 again and were glued to CNN news alerts.

After initialreports of possible charges in theStormy Daniels hush money case, the Trump arrest news cycle truly kicked into gear early on the morningof March 18 with post on Truth Social: THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK! Two hours later, a spokesmansaid the former president had not written his post with direct knowledge of the timing of any arrest, while adding, President Trump is rightfully highlighting his innocence and the weaponization of our injustice system.

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But it didnt matter that Trumps spokesman seemed to walk back Trumps truth, as posts on his Truth Social platform are ironically called, or that TUESDAY (March 21) came and went with no indictment from the Manhattan DAs office. (The grand jury isreportedly meeting again Monday.) None of those things mattered, as Trump, yet again, hijacked the news cyclethis time by announcing his impending arrest. AsThe New YorkersSusan Glasserwrote of this chaotic moment: The political classs collective capacity for analyzing and digesting events that have not yet occurred, which still might not occur, and whose details are presumably crucial to understanding how they will play out, was on full display.

Here we get to the central dilemma of covering Trump. By virtue of the fact he was president, and is currently leading the 2024 Republican pack, much of what Trump says and does is arguably newsworthy. But Trump is at besta bad actor and at worst a complete sociopath, known toflood the zone with shit in the immortal words ofSteve Bannon. So the idea that we, in the media, should take his word for it when he makes some wild claim seems at best misguided.

Though it would be impossible to ignore a pending indictment of a former president, could the breathless, nonstop indictment watch have been avoided? Theoretically, yes? But there is a muscle memory many of us have from covering Trump, a kind of Stockholm syndrome from the constant nonstop flood of news. And its easy to fall back into old patterns.

Trump, as president, was an assignment editor from hell, driving a news cycle over everything from preposterous ideas, likebuying Greenland, to terrifying ones, likebombing North Korea. By virtue of the fact that Trump was president, his tweets, his utterances, and his weird foibles led to countless headlines and cable news chyrons. Just as Trump was able to reclaim his role as assignment editor, another familiar story emerged: Republicans holding themselves hostage to Trump.

The GOP was presented with yet another opportunity to decouple itself from the albatross that had significantly cost their party in three straight elections. But instead of using a possible indictment as a way to rid themselves of the former guy, Republicans have been literally falling all over each other to defend him, despite not being sure what, if any, charges will be filed. House SpeakerKevin McCarthywarnedof politically motivated prosecutions, while Republican defenders hit airwaves.

On CNNs State of the Union, Kentucky congressman and frequent Trump defenderJames Comerwasnt surewhat he was defending Trump from on Sunday morning, but he seemed sure Trump was innocent. Are you arguing that people who commit business crimes are not committing crimes? asked CNNsJake Tapper. Is this a business crime? Were talking about a federal election crime, Comer responded. My understanding, Tapper said, is that hes being investigated for falsifying business records.

The Republican rush to defend Trump was so deeply embarrassing youd think it might have led to a moment of GOP introspection. But alas, the crew that is always soworried about the weaponization of the federal government used its power in Congress to target Manhattan DAAlvin Bragg even as his office has yet to charge Trump with anything. Comer and another Fox News frequent flier,Jim Jordan, wrote to Bragg: You are reportedly about to engage in anunprecedented abuse of prosecutorial authority. With Trump fully in the media spotlight, and Republicans rallying behind him, even critics acknowledged how the former president could benefit. This indictment is a billion dollar gift-in-kind from Democrats to Trumps 24 campaign, former representativePeter Meijertweeted.

Trump reportedly raised$1.5 million over his indictment in just three days and has enjoyeda polling bump (whileRon DeSantiss recentperformance on the national stagehas worried GOP donors). Never one to let a possible scandal go unexploited, Trump used the potential indictment as a centerpiece of his Waco, Texas, rally on Saturday,telling the crowd: You will be vindicated and proud. The thugs and criminals who are corrupting our justice system will be defeated, discredited, and totally disgraced. At one point, Trumpput his hand on his heart during the playing of a rendition of the national anthem as sung by theJ6 Choir, a group of imprisoned rioters, while behind him a large screen played footage from the insurrection at the Capitol. The weekend rally also happened to coincide with the30th anniversary of the government standoff in Waco with doomsday sect the Branch Davidians.

Trumps stance of being anti-anyone-who-doesnt-support-him was pretty clear to anyone watching. As I write this, Trump still hasnt been indicted but he has used the threat of any possible consequences for his actions to once again become the main character of the news cycle. Heseven slated to return Monday night to Fox News, a recent target of his ire due to its glowing DeSantis coverage. It seems very likely that Trump can parlay this main-character status into another GOP presidential nomination. Like global warming, Trump is on the horizon again and it feels like we are powerless to stop it.

Originally posted here:
Donald Trump Has Hijacked the News Cycle With Indictment Watch - Vanity Fair

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WACO Flanked by supporters waving witch hunt signs, former President Donald Trump turned in a signature incendiary performance Saturday in Waco, using his first 2024 campaign rally to frame himself as a victim of politicized legal investigations and vowing to be the MAGA movements retribution.

"I am your warrior, I am your justice, Trump said in a nearly 90-minute speech, most of it focused on perceived political enemies and slights. For those who have been wronged and betrayed I am your retribution."

Trump positioned himself as the sole protector of American values, painting a grim future if he is denied a second four-year term.

I will prevent World War III, which were heading into, Trump said to a crowd of thousands gathered on the tarmac of the Waco Regional Airport.

If returned to the White House, Trump promised to conduct the largest deportation operation in the nations history by increasing the number of border enforcement officers. Trump also pledged to reinstate Title 42, an emergency health order he initiated at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic that has been used to turn away migrants, including asylum seekers, from the southern border since March 2020. The Biden administration plans to end the national pandemic-era public health order, and thus Title 42, in May.

Trump also vowed to end Russias invasion of Ukraine within a day of beginning his next administration. Though he praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a smart person, he said the invasion would have never have happened had he been president. He also predicted that Russia would eventually take over Ukraine.

Trump echoed recent criticisms hes made against his most likely competition in the Republican presidential primaries, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis has not yet declared his candidacy.

Trump claimed credit for DeSantis political rise after endorsing him in the 2018 governors race but said Florida has been in decline in the years since, due largely to DeSantis decision to close some public facilities at the onset of the pandemic.

When Trump wasn't positioning himself as the savior of American freedom, he cast himself as the victim of politicized attacks, particularly an investigation in New York into alleged hush payments made to an adult film star.

This is really prosecutorial misconduct. The innocence of people makes no difference whatsoever to these radical left maniacs, Trump said of the investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. It is worse actually in my opinion hard to believe anything can be worse than this worse than ballot stuffing.

Rick Taylor drove two hours from Comanche to see Trump speak and said he wasnt disappointed, agreeing that Democratic control of the White House had to be prevented at all costs.

Trump is the man for the hour. Hes the only man who can take on Washington in the times that we live in, Taylor said. Trump needs to dredge out the swamp with a bulldozer.

Like Trump who made dire predictions about the fate of America should he lose in 2024 Taylor said the country would be unrecognizable if Democrats were to win the next election.

The most vocal response from the crowd came when Trump called to keep men out of womens sports, which has become an increasingly popular issue among conservatives who say that transgender women competing in female athletics is taking opportunities away from women.

In 2021, the Texas Legislature banned transgender students from competing in public school sports that do not align with their gender at birth. This year, conservative lawmakers hope to extend that ban to university athletics.

The crowd also roared in approval when Trump pledged to abolish critical race theory from Americas schools. CRT is a university-level area of study asserting that structural racism has been baked into American institutions.

We cant wait to welcome you Sept. 21-23 to the 2023 Texas Tribune Festival, our multiday celebration of big, bold ideas about politics, public policy and the days news all taking place just steps away from the Texas Capitol. When tickets go on sale in May, Tribune members will save big. Donate to join or renew today.

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Donald Trump vows retribution at first 2024 presidential rally in Waco - The Texas Tribune

Donald Trump has an unparalleled ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

He proved that again last week as he took positions that worked against him both personally and politically

The Donald began the week predicting that he would be arrested on Tuesday on charges that he paid off a porn star to keep quiet concerning an assignation that happened way back in 2006.

Thats not the sort of thing that most politicians like to advertise. Most would shut up and trust their lawyers to find technical reasons to get the charges thrown out.

The prosecution was based on a convoluted legal theory that might not have held up in court, said Andrew Napolitano, a former Bergen County Superior Court judge and media commentator.

But that didnt stop Trump from giving Prosecutor Alvin Bragg what he needs to make a strong case against him on a different charge, Napolitano said.

Trump can expect another count to be added, Napolitano said. Thats threatening a prosecutor.

That threat came when Trump posted on his website a photo of him holding a baseball bat aimed at photo of Bragg.

That post was taken down in a few hours. But Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina was left with the task of defending it on Meet the Press Sunday.

Tacopina called the post ill-advised and added, Im not his social media consultant.

No, Trumps social media consultant is Trump. And with that post he handed the prosecution evidence that is likely to pop up at Trumps bail hearing if he is arrested, said Napolitano.

A posting like this strikes terror in the belly of a trial lawyer because he knows hes going to be standing next to his client in court, said Napolitano. He can be held without bail as long as the defendant has the present apparent ability to carry out that threat.

Trump could do so through social media, and a judge might be tempted to order him not to go online, Napolitano said.

In Trumps case, ordering him off the internet would be a plus. That Manhattan case wasnt the only possible prosecution Trump screwed up last week. At his Saturday rally in Waco, Texas, Trump posted photos of his supporters who were jailed because of their role in attacking the capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Trumps defense has been that he didnt incite the rioters. But by taking their side he seemed to be goading the prosecutors who will be deciding whether to indict him on federal charges.

But the strangest event of the week came when the Trump team released a February 2018 letter to the Federal Election Commission from his then-lawyer, Stephen Ryan, concerning the actions of his prior lawyer, Michael Cohen.

In that letter, Ryan wrote that Trump did not reimburse Cohen for the $130,000 in hush money Cohen gave to porn star Stormy Daniels aka Stephanie Clifford in 2016.

Neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump campaign was a party to the transaction with Ms. Clifford, and neither reimbursed Mr. Cohen for the payment directly or indirectly, said the attorney, who represented Cohen at the time.

The Donald posted this as proof that he didnt reimburse Cohen for the $130,000 he gave to Daniels. Or in other words, Trump was saying that he stiffed Cohen.

If he stiffed him that would be nothing new, according to one Atlantic City lawyer who is among the many contractors The Donald stiffed back in his casino days.

It wouldnt be the first time he stiffed someone, said Seth Grossman.

In Cohens case, he took out a home-equity loan to get the $130,000 he gave to Daniels. If Trump is telling the truth in this latest post, then he hung Cohen out to dry not just with that debt but with the time he spent in prison.

That wasnt the only dumb thing Trump did last week. In Waco, he devoted a good chunk of his speech to attacking a fellow Republican, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That didnt go over well, according to reports covering the event. The headline on Yahoo News was Trump tried to mock Ron DeSantis at his Texas rally. He was met with mostly silence from the audience.

Perhaps thats because the audience members didnt care for attacks on a guy whos in the best position to win the Republican nomination in 2024 if Trump keeps this up.

Many Democrats would prefer that Trump get the GOP nomination. They argue that hed be easier to beat.

I saw one liberal blogger writing that no one in the Republican Party can defeat Trump.

Well, I know of one Republican who can defeat Trump. Thats Trump.

Last week he did his level best.

More: Recent Paul Mulshine columns.

Paul Mulshine may be reached at pmulshine@starledger.com.

Follow him on Twitter @Mulshine. Find NJ.com Opinion on Facebook and on Twitter

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For Donald Trump, that was the week that wasnt | Mulshine - NJ.com

Case type: CriminalWhere: U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Prosecutor: Jack Smith, DOJ special counselWhen: Unclear

Perhaps the biggest case of all, the Justice Department has been investigating a variety of plots that intersected with Trump in relation to the lead-up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol. One such plot was the scheme to send fake electors from the states to Congress on January 6, 2021, in order to declare Trump as the phony winner of the election. Smiths office has issued subpoenas to election officials in key states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Another plot involves how Trump and his inner circle sought to pressure his vice-president, Mike Pence, to stop Congress from certifying Bidens victory that day. There is also the question of how exactly Trump fit into the violence that unfolded at the Capitol after he urged his supporters to march there during his speech at the Ellipse. On Friday afternoon, Smiths office scored a huge victory in court when a judge ruled that several members of the Trump administration, including former chief of staff Mark Meadows, must comply with a subpoena for grand-jury testimony.

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What Are the Legal Cases Against Donald Trump? - New York Magazine