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Uncertainty clouds projections of the2024presidential race. The dispositive questions are whether incumbent president Joe Biden, and former presidentDonald Trump, will run for reelection. All else flows from those two decisions. Perhaps the most interesting potential scenario would be if Trump were to be elected to a second term. Trumps first term stemmed from modern political historys greatest upset win and resulted in the most divided America since the end of theVietnam War perhaps since theCivil War.

So, what would a second Trump term look like?

Presidential second terms have the capacity for awkwardness. While second-term presidents are still technically the most powerful person on Earth, their power wanes as they approach the conclusion of their term, especially once a successor is elected; ineligible for reelection, with a successor in place, presidents lose their teeth they become lame ducks.

Similarly, second terms have such a tendency or perception of being less successful than the first term that theres even a superstitious legend: the second-term curse. Legend holds that George Washington put a curse on Franklin D. Roosevelt when FDR ran for a third presidential term. The curse, folksy as it is, results from the frequency with which second-term presidents are confronted with scandal, catastrophe, intern drama, political downturn, etc. Second terms have been fraught with problems. Consider modern presidential history. Nixon dealt with Watergate and was forced to resign. Reagan had Iran-Contra. Clinton was impeached over the Lewinksy scandal. George W. Bush had Hurricane Katrina and the financial meltdown. Barack Obama had the Snowden leaks. Although, the idea of a second-term curse isnt quite scientific. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight doesnt buy the second-term curse.

My view, then, is that the idea of the second-term curse is sloppy as an analytical concept. There is certainly a historical tendency for presidents who earn a second term to become less popular but some of this reflects reversion to the mean. And some recent presidents have overcome the supposed curse and actually become more popular on average during their second terms.

Anyways, what would a Trump second term look like? Lame duck? Second-term curse?

By definition, asecond term Trumpwould inevitably become a lame duck. However, Trump has demonstrated a unique ability to retain soft power. The last timeTrumpwas a lame duck, for example, he denied the legitimacy of the election results that rendered him a lame duck, hence bolstering himself, in the eyes of his supporters, as something more than a lame duck. And once Trump departed office, he remained the most powerful figure in the GOP a phenomenon, a one-term president, ousted from office, yet still the partys standard-bearer. Typically, when a one-termer is out, his political career is over.Jimmy Carterwas done;George H. W. Bushwas done.Trump is not done. Trump still operates as something of a kingmaker within the GOP, with congressional and gubernatorial candidates all coveting a Trump endorsement. A Trump at the end of his second term should be slightly different, however. He would be ineligible for another run; he would be well into his 80s. Yet, Trumps loyal base of ardent supporters, MAGA-nation, would undoubtedly still worship the guy.

What about a second-term curse? Ill avoid pointed speculation about force majeure events. China is ascendent. Putin is adventurous. The Fed, in their efforts to fight inflation, could unleash another recession. Global warming appears to be accelerating the rate of natural disaster occurrence. Theres plenty that could go wrong.

Speculation about potential controversies is easy theres plenty ofongoingcontroversies to fuel speculation.JustSecurity.orghas a Trump litigation tracker; currently, the former president is involved in 22 ongoing criminal or civil investigations/lawsuits. Trump is under fire for everything from incitement to fraud to tax evasion. Trump is perpetually embroiled in controversy, so simple math tells us a Trump second term would be embroiled in controversy, too. Right now, Trumps most pressing controversy is the classified documents bit, which inspired anFBI raidofMar-a-Lago.

Granted, much of Trumps legal controversy is the result of aggressive, wishful opposition comparable to theStarr/Gingrichopposition that plagued Clintons tenure. But unlikeClinton, or other second-term-curse-suffering presidents, Trump somehow seems to draw energy and power from controversy.

Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken. Follow him on Twitter @harrison_kass.

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Donald Trump Could Be a Chaos Bomb If He Wins 2024 - 19FortyFive

I recently read a commentary on TNHs website titled The Useful Club of American Presidents (Aug. 23), written by TNH founder and longtime publisher, Antonis Diamataris. He concludes correctly, in my view that presidents have their own exclusive clubThey form a special relationship with each other. There is mutual understanding, perhaps mutual compassion, even if they dont like each other.And he believes, as I do, that such relationships are positive and useful for the country as well.

I have been fascinated with the American presidency since I was a kid, and I always loved seeing former presidents together. Back in 1981, I remember seeing a photograph of President Reagan together with former Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter at the White House and still consider it one of the most compelling images of modern American history. Ive always thought that when presidents current and former get together, its a special moment for America.

In 2012 I read The Presidents Club, an excellent book by Nancy Gibbs and Michael Duffy, which chronicles relationships between current and former presidents throughout our nations history. Even more thought-provoking is the 2020 book Team of Five: The Presidents Club in the Age of Trump, by Kate Andersen Brower. The front cover depicts another great photo: President Bush in the Oval Office along with President-Elect Obama, and former Presidents Carter, Bush (Sr.), and Clinton. They are laughing and in good spirits; they appear to be enjoying one anothers company.

The author masterfully draws our attention to the 500-pound (orange-haired?) elephant in the room: Trump is different from the rest. Very, very different.Brower reminds us that when Barbara Bush died, the two Presidents Bush her husband and son were obviously there, but so were Presidents Clinton and Obama. Carter was not, because he was overseas. But incumbent President Trump was conspicuously absent he says so as not to cause disruptions, others say the family (particularly the deceased) didnt want him there.

His absence was eerie, as was his presence at the elder Bushs funeral a few months later. With wife Melania at his side, the Trumps clearly stood out as the which object does not belong juxtaposed with the Carters, Clintons, Bushes, and Obamas. But whos fault is that?

Another book I highly recommend is a very recent one, Heres the Deal, by Trump confidant Kellyanne Conway. She and I belong in the same camp insofar as we criticize much of what Trump did from Election Day through snubbing Inauguration Day, but see no evidence that he committed any crimes, or impeachable offenses, or was responsible for the one percent of the January 6 rally attendees who invaded the Capitol.

Conway writes about how when the nation went into pandemic lockdown mode in early 2020, she encouraged Trump to invite the former presidents to the White House and form a united front against the virus that would evoke a sense of reassurance in the American people. Ugh, theyre all horrible to me was his response. Conway persisted, describing how they could all stand in the Oval Office, the four former chief executives lending their support to him. He heard her argument, but didnt change his mind. Why not?

It is very telling that many will fall over themselves like shopaholics at a Black Friday sale to insist that its Trumps fault, of course! Hes an unhinged narcissistic sociopath. All of the others get along well together, right? Even ones from opposite parties who didnt always say the nicest things about one another. Trumps the oddball. Cant you see its his fault? No question about it.

Others will be equally hasty to rush to the opposite conclusion, that they are part of the Deep State and never gave Trump a chance because he would drain the swamp in which they all dwell. Before he even took office they said he was unfit, that the Russians helped him win, and theyve been criticizing him ever since. These same people had no problem with his tone until he became a threat to their power. They are without a doubt the ones to blame.

When laypersons think that way, leading with their emotions, its just part of the human experience. But when historians do it, its very troubling. Like everyone else, historians have opinions, draw conclusions, and vote for one candidate over another. But when they act as historians, they need to leave their opinions and their emotions on the doorstep.

Did the former presidents really make Trump feel as if he was beneath them? If so, did Trump simply give up on them right away, or did he make an attempt to win them over? Did they start out being friendly with him and then he shunned them when they didnt agree with everything he said? Did he think they were all failures as presidents and so he didnt want any of their advice?

Why Trump is not a member of the Presidents Club is an important study for historians to undertake. I confess that Im somewhat pessimistic theyll be able to overcome their fears that their actual findings will be opposite of their desired findings, and so they wont record history accurately.Historians, like teachers and news reporters, must honor their obligations to humankind by sharing with them the truth as they best understand it.

I wish Trump was part of the Presidents Club. I agree with Antonis and Kellyanne that our country would benefit from that. But Im not about to pass judgment one way or another based on cockamamie half-baked red herrings and anecdotes. Thats what litigators and politicians (with notable exceptions) do, not historians.

Read the original post:
Why Isn't Donald Trump Part of the Presidents Club? - The National Herald

The billionaire heir behind the BMW luxury brand urged the people of Europe to do whatever they can to prevent a second presidency under Donald Trump.

During a recent speech given for his mothers charitable foundation earlier this month, BMW deputy chairman Stefan Quandt warned it would be naive for the continent to view Trump as a historical aberration and rule out the possibility of his reelection in 2024.

Europe and the entire free world can count itself lucky today that Joe Biden is the rightful president of the United States of America. And we need to do everything in our power so that it stays that way, said Quandt, according to a report by Germanys Focus Money.

Quandt and his older sister Susanne Klatten, Germanys wealthiest woman, control nearly half of the outstanding stock in BMW. The stake was inherited from their father, Herbert, who rescued the company in 1960 with the help of BMW trade unionist Kurt Golda.

From the very beginning of his presidency, Trump attacked Germany for what he perceived were policies of maximizing exports and minimizing imports that he claimed harmed U.S. economic interests, as well as its failure to meet NATO military spending targets.

The countrys carmakers were among Trumps favorite targets for reproach, even though the triumvirate of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen all maintained major manufacturing operations in the United States.

Last year BMW even ranked as the biggest U.S. exporter by dollar value for theeighth straight year running. In 2021, the Commerce Department estimated it shipped nearly 260,000 light vehicles worth just over $10 billion abroad.

Owing to Trumps icy relations with popular Chancellor Angela Merkel, his constant criticism of the country, as well as an abrasive ambassador to Berlin, Richard Grenell, there remains a deep mistrust of the ex-president among Germans.

In a survey published just weeks before the pandemic upended world order, Germans overwhelmingly told pollsters that Trump was the biggest threat to peace.

By comparison, Russian leader Vladimir Putin only factored a distant third with just 8% behind North Koreas Kim Jong-Un.

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Billionaire BMW heir urges Europe to do everything to help prevent Donald Trumps reelection - Fortune

Former President Donald Trump is no stranger to sports. In fact, he keeps a close eye on the sporting world. And we got an example of that after Trump mocked former UFC Champion Ronda Rousey on Twitter.

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Ronda Rousey had been almost unbeatable in the UFC until she fought against Holly Holm at UFC 193. The MMA world got shocked after Holly Holm earned a knockout victory over Rousey. Following Holms victory, several people talked about Rouseys loss on social media, including Donald Trump.

The former President expressed joy on social media after seeing Rousey lose in her Championship fight. In his tweet, he also claimed Ronda Rousey is not a nice person. This is not the only tweet that Trump made during that time.

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Soon after, he also made a tweet and congratulated Tom Brady for leading the New England Patriots to a comeback victory over the New York Giants. Donald Trump noted Brady is not only a great guy, but also the best quarterback.

Watch This Story: WWE Superstars With The Highest Number of WrestleMania Matches

It looks like Donald Trump is not really a fan of Ronda Rousey. However, one can claim that it has not always been the case. Rousey and Trump had a history that many fans might not know.

Ronda Rousey is one straightforward individual. The WWE superstar has never thought twice before saying what she feels. And she once gave her honest views or opinions on former President Donald Trump.

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But it looks like it did not go too well with Trump. Back in August 2015, in an interview with CNN, Donald Trump said, Id take her [Ronda Rousey] on my side as a fighter. [H/T: USA Today]

However, Rousey had some other views. In an interview with CNN, The Baddest Woman on the Planet noted, I mean, I wouldnt vote for him. I just really wouldnt trust the guy with running my country, thats all. Im not really going to get into specifics of it, but I mean, I dont want a reality TV star to be running my country. [H/T: USA Today]

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DIVE DEEPER

Donald Trump Led Government Made Major Blunder Involving Ronda Rousey and WWE

3 days ago

It looked like Trump was not too pleased with Rouseys comment as he took a dig at Rousey following her loss against Holly Holm. But this is how Rousey is. The former WWE SmackDown Womens Champion has never hesitated to put forward her honest views or opinions.

Here is the original post:
Donald Trump Once Mocked Ronda Rousey in an Uncalled Act, but Potentially Made Up With Tom Brady Praise - EssentiallySports

Another acronym that Former-guy had better learn how to spell ...

In between the pages of redactions, there are some insights into the types of information that the FPOTUS actively kept away from NARA in violation of the Presidential Records Act.

I-Me-Mine Documents to misquote a former icon of rock.

AFFIDAVIT IN SUPPORT OF ANAPPLICATION UNDER RULE 41 FOR AWARRANT TO SEARCH AND SEIZE

[pg 17 of 38]

The FIFTEEN BOXES Provided to NARA Contain Classified Information

47. From May 16-18, 2022, FBI agents conducted a preliminary review of the FIFTEEN BOXES provided to NARA and identified documents with classification markings in fourteen of the FIFTEEN BOXES. A preliminary triage of the documents with classification markings revealed the following approximate numbers: 184 unique documents bearing classification markings, including 67 documents marked as CONFIDENTIAL, 92 documents marked as SECRET, and 25 documents marked as TOP SECRET. Further, the FBI agents observed markings reflecting the following compartments/dissemination controls: HCS, FISA, ORCON, NOFORN, and SI. Based on my training and experience, I know that documents classified at these levels typically contain NDI. Several of the documents also contained what appears to be FPOTUS's handwritten notes.

48. [Completed Redacted]49. [Completed Redacted]50. [Completed Redacted]51. [Completed Redacted]52. [Partially Redacted] [...]

53. I am aware of an article published in Breitbart on May 5, 2022, available at https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/05/05/documents-mar-a-lago-marked-classified-were-already-declassified-kash-patel-says/, which states that Kash Patel, who is described as a former top FPOTUS administration official, characterized as "misleading" reports in other news organizations that NARA had found classified materials among records that FPOTUS provided to NARA from Mar-a-Lago. Patel alleged that such reports were misleading because FPOTUS had declassified the materials at issue. [Readaction]

54. [Completed Redacted]55. [Completed Redacted]56. [Completed Redacted]57. [Completed Redacted]58. [Completed Redacted]59. [Completed Redacted]60. [Completed Redacted]

[emphasis added]

And those were among the items the El Cheesimo personally decided to give back, in May of this year.

They were not ALL the Classified Documents despite the Lawyer filings asserting they were.

Here are what all those the Acronyms mean.

Bottom-line: its not good for the former Realty Show boss-man. Given the Documents recovered in August Documents that they supposedly didnt have ...

by Tierney Sneed and Marshall Cohen, CNN Aug 26, 2022

[...]

The affidavit used a handful of acronyms when describing the sensitivity of the documents that were recovered from Mar-a-Lago earlier in the year. This alphabet soup is probably confusing to most Americans, but national security experts have said it reveals the horrifying scope of this security breach.

Some of the classified documents that Trump brought with him from the White House to Mar-a-Lago contained markings for "HCS, FISA, ORCON, NOFORN, and SI," according to the FBI affidavit.

"HCS" indicates that the material is about human sources, or spies, that often work with the CIA. "FISA" relates to court-ordered surveillance collecting foreign intelligence, including wiretaps. "ORCON" means the document is so sensitive that its originator must approve any request to share it. "NOFORN" means the material can't be shared with any foreign entities, even allies, without permission. "SI," short for Special Intelligence, relates to signals intercepts, which are typically handled by the National Security Agency.

These phrases confirm what many feared -- that the documents that may have been illegally mishandled at Mar-a-Lago contained some of America's most sensitive secrets.

[emphasis added]

NDI National Defense Information. Ooops!

The unanswered questions still remain for records-thief Trump:

Why did he have classified documents at his home?

What was he doing with them?

What was Trump going to do with that Classified Nuclear info [{redacted]?

Did you think you would never get caught Donald, or is it you just dont give a hoot about Americas security, in an ever-more dangerous world? Which is it Donald, pick one or maybe its BOTH?

And about that SOL acronym that Trump is only starting to wake up to given all the skilled Lawyers who have been rushing to fleeing from his defense ...

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Read the original:
The Alphabet Soup that shows Donald Trump is S.O.L. - Daily Kos