Donald J. Trump will make his first appearance in federal      criminal court on Tuesday. But the former president has been      pleading his case for days in a far friendlier venue  the      court of Republican public opinion, where he continues to      dominate the 2024 field.    
      For Mr. Trump and his team, there has been a sense of      familiarity, even normalcy, in the chaos of facing a 37-count      indictment in the classified documents case. After two House      impeachments, multiple criminal investigations, the jailing      of his businesss former accountant, his former fixer and his      former campaign manager, and now two criminal indictments,      Mr. Trump knows the drill, and so do his supporters.    
      The playbook is well-worn: Play the victim. Blame the Deep      State. Claim selective prosecution. Punish Republicans who      stray for disloyalty. Dominate the news. Ply small donors for      cash.    
      His allies see the indictment as a chance to end the primary      race before it has even begun in the minds of Republican      voters by framing 2024 as an active battle with President      Biden. Until now, the main pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc.,      has focused heavily on Mr. Trumps chief Republican rival,      Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, in its $20 million of ad      spending. But that messaging has shifted after the      indictment, with a new commercial already being shown      that pits Mr. Trump directly against Mr. Biden.    
      The intended effect, said a person familiar with the      strategy, is to present Mr. Trump as the partys leader and      the presumptive nominee who has already entered a      head-to-head battle with Mr. Biden and his Justice      Department, making Mr. Trumps Republican opponents look      small by comparison.    
      Mr. Trump, who flew to Florida on Monday ahead of his Tuesday      appearance, is determined to serve as narrator of his own      high-stakes legal drama. He posted on Truth Social to reveal      he had been indicted minutes after his lawyer had called to      alert him last week.    
      The only good thing about it is its driven my poll numbers      way up, Mr. Trump told the Georgia Republican Party in a      combative speech on Saturday.    
      So far, the indictment fallout appears to be moving along two      parallel tracks in different directions, one political, the      other legal.    
      Politically, Mr. Trump has continued to consolidate      Republican support. In a CBS News      poll on Sunday, only 7 percent of likely Republican      primary voters initially said the indictment would change      their view of Mr. Trump for the worse and twice as      many said it would change their view for the better. A full      80 percent of likely Republican voters said Mr. Trump should      be able to serve even if convicted.    
      Legally, the specificity and initial evidence presented in      the charging document that was unsealed on Friday showed the      gravity of the case.    
      That evidence includes a recording of Mr. Trump claiming to      have a classified document in front of him and acknowledging      he no longer had the power to declassify it, photographs of      documents strewn across a storage room floor  which Mr.      Trump was particularly rankled by  surveillance footage,      reams of subpoenaed texts from his own aides and notes from      his own lawyer. If even half of it is true, then hes      toast, Bill Barr, who served as attorney general under Mr.      Trump, said on Fox News. Its very, very damning.    
      As he headed to Miami, Mr. Trump was working to reassemble a legal team shaken by two      major resignations on Friday as the special counsel who      brought the charges, Jack Smith, said he would push for a      speedy trial.    
      For Mr. Trump, who has long blurred public-relations woes and      legal peril, his 2024 campaign began in part as a shield      against prosecution, and victory at the ballot box would      amount to the ultimate acquittal. Still, few political      strategists in either party see running while under      indictment as a way to appeal to the independent voters who      are crucial to actually winning the White House.    
      But Mr. Trump has rarely looked past the task immediately in      front of him, and for now that is the primary. The CBS poll      showed him dominating his closest rival, Mr. DeSantis, 61      percent to 23 percent.    
      On Sunday night, the chief executive of the MAGA Inc. super      PAC, Taylor Budowich, sent a memo of talking points to      surrogates that tellingly does not mention Mr. DeSantis at      all, only Mr. Biden.    
      Another person familiar with the super PACs strategy said      that the fundamentals of the political race had not changed      even as the indictment has brought Mr. Trump the gravest      legal threat hes ever faced. And the PAC would eventually      continue attacking Mr. DeSantis, while also elevating other      Republican candidates to shear off some of Mr. DeSantiss      support.    
      The uncomfortable initial posture of Mr. Trumps rivals was      captured in a video released by Mr. DeSantiss super PAC attacking      the Biden DOJ for indicting the former president. Mr.      Trumps team was delighted to see it, even if the ad cast Mr.      DeSantis as the man to clean house inside the federal      government. Forcing rivals to rally around Mr. Trump, as they      see it, is a reaffirmation of the former presidents place at      the head of the G.O.P.    
      Yet on Monday, there was a slight shift in tone from solely      denouncing the Justice Department. Two      things can be true, Nikki Haley, the former United      Nations ambassador, said on Fox News, adding if the      indictment was accurate President Trump was incredibly      reckless with our national security. Senator Tim Scott of      South Carolina called it a serious case with serious      allegations during a campaign stop in his home state,      according to The Post      and Courier.    
      The arc of how Mr. Trump has bent the Republican Party and      its voters to his interests is not new. He famously joked      that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose      support in his 2016 campaign.    
      He survived a succession of scandals as president  including      the long-running investigation by a previous special counsel,      Robert S. Mueller III, that sent some Trump advisers to      prison  that few others could. One reason, his advisers and      allies say, is that Republican voters have become inured to      the various accusations he has faced, flattening them all      into a single example of prosecutorial and Democratic      overreach, regardless of the specifics.    
      Most people on my side of the aisle believe when it comes to      Donald Trump, there are no rules, Senator Lindsey Graham of      South Carolina, one of Mr. Trumps most ardent Republican      defenders, said on ABC News This Week on Sunday. And you      can do the exact same thing or something similar as a      Democrat and nothing happens.    
      The New York Post captured the sentiment succinctly with a      tabloid banner on Monday that read, What About the Bidens?    
      One Trump adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to      discuss strategy, noted that most politicians would assume a      defensive crouch when facing a federal indictment. But not      Mr. Trump, who delivered two speeches on Saturday, has posted      dozens of times on his social media site and is determined to      use the national spotlight to drive a proactive message of      his own. It is Trump 24/7, wall-to-wall  why not use that      to your advantage? the adviser said, referring to the      blanket media coverage Mr. Trump has been receiving after his      indictment.    
      On Monday evening, Mr. Trump did three straight radio      interviews, including one with Americano Media, where the      host, Carines Moncada, told Mr. Trump that the charges      against him had echoes of persecution of conservative      leaders in Latin America. I think maybe one of the reasons      they like me, so many people have been so hurt in Colombia,      in other countries in Latin America, South America, Mr.      Trump replied.    
      The charges, however, could pose a long-term political      challenge. An ABC/Ipsos      poll from the weekend found that more independents      thought Mr. Trump should be charged than thought he should      not. And 61 percent of Americans found the charges either      very or somewhat serious.    
      In the CBS      poll, 69 percent of independent voters said they would      consider Mr. Trumps possession of documents about nuclear      systems or military plans a national security risk (46      percent of Republicans said the same, suggesting a potential      fracture in the party over that point).    
      On Tuesday, Mr. Trump will fly to New Jersey after his      hearing, commandeering the cameras again to deliver      prime-time remarks that his team hopes will be televised.    
      Mr. Trumps advisers took note that some cable and broadcast      networks gave live coverage on Monday to the departure of his      motorcade as it headed for the airport. On Twitter, the Trump      adviser Jason Miller noted that even Fox News, which has      generally shied away from extensive live Trump coverage,      broadcast footage of the motorcade. Mr. Miller had mocked Fox      News over the weekend for not carrying Mr. Trumps      appearances live.    
      The Trump operation said it had raised $4 million in the      first 24 hours after his previous indictment by the Manhattan      district attorney in March. But the campaign has yet to      disclose the sum this time.    
      In a major fund-raiser that was in the works before the      indictment, Mr. Trump is gathering top donors on Tuesday      evening at Bedminster, his private club. Those who raise at      least $100,000 are invited to attend a candlelight dinner      after his address to the media.    
      The indictment news has blotted out other developments on the      campaign trail. The announcement over the weekend by Mr.      DeSantis of his first endorsement from a fellow governor,      Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma, was barely a blip. And when Mr.      Trump turns himself in at a Miami courthouse on Tuesday, it      will keep the attention on the former president.    
      Roughly 15 different groups are trying to galvanize Trump      supporters to come to the Miami courthouse for his hearing,      according to one person briefed on the plans.    
      The juxtaposition in Mr. Trumps own language about the      stakes, legally and politically, can be jarring.    
      This is the final battle, Mr. Trump said on      Saturday.    
      But aware of the violence that broke out on Jan. 6, 2021,      when Mr. Trump urged supporters to march on the Capitol, he      was more cautious on Sunday when speaking to Roger J. Stone      Jr., his longest-serving adviser, in an interview for Mr.      Stones radio show.    
      Mr. Trump said they should join that final battle while      protesting peacefully.    
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How Trump Plans to Beat His Indictment, Politically - The New York Times