The Worst Political Predictions of 2021 – POLITICO
As predictions go, you could do worse in forecasting the issues that defined this year than what those two men were focused on: Attempting to overthrow American democracy and struggling to contain the pandemic. 2021 in a nutshell, before it even began.
With the year (blessedly) behind us, its time again for a treasured POLITICO Magazine tradition: a rundown of some of the worst predictions of 2021. Some are cocksure and smug; others have a tragic air of obsessiveness (cough, Mike Lindell, cough); still others were totally fair and reasonable predictions at the time, but the world spun in a different direction than it once seemed. Here, more than two dozen predictions about 2021 that were, well, bad.
Everythings going to be fine in the last few weeks of the Trump administration
Predicted by: Hugh Hewitt, Jan. 6
On the morning of Jan. 6, conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt appeared on Megyn Kellys podcast and was asked a question on the minds of seemingly every political observer in America: Joe Bidens going to get certified [as president-elect] today. What does Trump do over the next two weeks before the inauguration? I mean, hes still going to be saying what hes saying about the electoral process, and theres a big rally in D.C. today, but what do you think we can expect?
Hewitt responded by predicting a raft of new pardons before turning to the broader concern about the peaceful transfer of power: I would just say to everybody: It will be fine. Everythings going to be fine, he said as Kelly voiced her agreement.
A few hours later, a violent pro-Trump putsch at the U.S. Capitol disrupted the peaceful transfer of power and dragged the nation to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Everything was not fine.
Predicted by: Scott Adams, July 1, 2020
There are a few reasons you might recognize the name Scott Adams. Perhaps you know him from his repeat appearances on these annual worst predictions lists (e.g. that Trump, Biden and Bernie Sanders would all contract Covid by election day 2020 and one would die). If youre of a certain age, maybe you remember Dilbert, the 90s cartoon icon he created that satirized corporate office culture in the years before Office Space. Or, if youre part of the political cognoscenti in the broader Trump era, you might know him as a self-described expert in the rhetorical dark arts who has spun that ability into a second act as a MAGA-adjacent political commentator with a large online following.
But unlike many prominent voices of that persuasion, he exudes a calm clarity in his thinking as if what he says is the natural outgrowth of a deliberative process which gives his predictions a certain dispassionate confidence, as if they are closer to scientific fact than wishcasting or doomsaying.
For instance, on July 1, 2020, Adams made this prediction about American life in 2021 with Joe Biden in the White House: If Biden is elected, theres a good chance you will be dead within the year. Lest you think he was talking about, say, the potential mismanagement of the pandemic or some natural disaster, Adams clarified what he meant in two further tweets: Republicans will be hunted. Police will stand down.
We are nearly a full year into Bidens presidency. Police have not stood down. In fact, many cities have increased funding for police. Republicans, far from being hunted, have made major electoral gains and stand poised to retake at least one house of Congress next year. There are no killing fields. There has been no purge.
Predicted by: St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board, Aug. 3
When Bush staged a sleep-in on the steps of the Capitol to protest the lapse of the pandemic-era eviction ban, her hometown St. Louis Post-Dispatch published an editorial that reads like a pat on the head of the freshman Missouri congresswoman and liberal Squad member.
Bush clearly misunderstands the complicated process required to restore the moratorium, they wrote. As with many progressive ideals, righteous-sounding aspirations never seem to take into account political reality. Bush tweeted a demand that President Joe Biden extend the eviction moratorium and that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer force legislative action. Its as if she believes those three can wave their wands and magically make things better.
Later that same day, Biden announced a new 60-day eviction moratorium prompted by pressure and coverage generated by Bushs TV-ready protest. With her antics, she had changed political reality. Even as the ban ended weeks later after being struck down by the Supreme Court, it came about not through magic, but real-world politics.
Predicted by: President Joe Biden, July 8
Last summer, as U.S. forces withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban steadily regained territory throughout the country, Biden held a press conference where he was asked about the historical echoes some veterans of the Vietnam War saw between the fall of Saigon and the Afghanistan pullout. Asked if he saw parallels between the two events, Biden who, by the way, was a U.S. senator when Saigon fell in spring 1975 was insistent.
The Taliban is not the South the North Vietnamese army. Theyre not theyre not remotely comparable in terms of capability, he said. Theres going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable. The likelihood theres going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.
Just over one month later, in mid-August, Chinook helicopters airlifted Americans from the U.S. Embassy in Kabul as it evacuated. The Taliban surrounded and retook Kabul; it is now fully in control of the government of Afghanistan.
Predicted by: Chuck Schumer, March 10
Nope. The Covid bill passed, checks went into pockets, shots went into arms and the political benefit for Democrats has been minimal. Politics hasnt changed drastically, and it certainly doesnt seem like the pro-autocracy movement has been put to bed in any way.
Predicted by: Kevin McCarthy, April 28
Ahh, the early days of the Biden administration pre-Afghanistan pullout, pre-Delta wave, pre-vaccine mandate when the presidents poll numbers were strong and Republicans flailed about for an issue, any issue, that could provide a political foothold. Banning Dr. Seuss. No? Going to war against Major League Baseball? No? What about meat? Yes, thats the ticket.
Heres what happened: in late April, after Biden vowed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by half, Fox News and its sister channels went to work promoting the falsehood that Biden was going to effectively ban meat, as PolitiFact extensively documented. Their promotion of that deception led House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy to reflect their outrage back at them: On April 28, he appeared on Hannity and confidently predicted that the Biden administration is gonna control how much meat you can eat. That is, of course, not the case: Biden did not ban meat, nor is he controlling how much animal protein you consume, nor is any plan in motion to do that.
Here, a quick clarification may be useful: Theres a difference between a falsehood and a bad prediction. A falsehood is something presented as fact when it is not. A bad prediction is a forward-looking, if ultimately incorrect, assertion about how the future will play out. What McCarthy said is both.
Predicted by: Mike Lindell, many times
March 26: All the evidence I have everything is going to go before the Supreme Court, and the election of 2020 is going bye-bye. Donald Trump will be back in office in August.
March 30: I said Donald Trump will be in [the White House] in August. And I fully believe that myself: hell be back in.
May 25: Donald Trump will be back in by the end of August.
June 2: These are facts: We have a clear path to pull this election down. [On the Supreme Court,] itll be 9-0 down comes the election, and in August, here comes Donald Trump.
June 5: [On the August prediction] I could be off by a month or so, I dont know.
July 4: By the morning of August 13, itll be the talk of the world, going Hurry up! Lets get this election pulled down. Lets get these communists out, you know, [who] have taken over.
Aug. 21: Its Trump 2021, 100 percent: Trump 2021. This election, when it does get pulled down, there were so many down-ticket [races] affected, maybe the Supreme Court, theyll just do a whole new election.
Sept. 21: I made a promise to this country that with all the evidence I have that we would get it to the Supreme Court. And I predicted they would vote 9-0 to look at the evidence. Originally, I had hoped for August and September. We will have this before the Supreme Court before Thanksgiving. Thats my promise to the people of this country.
Sept. 24: Were giving everything all the evidence I have [to] the Supreme Court. That will be done before Thanksgiving. Thats in stone.
Nov. 7: [The Supreme Court is] going to accept it 9-0. It will require a new election across the board. [Theyll] declare the 2020 vote void and order new elections across the board.
Nov. 17: One week from today, on Nov. 23, the states are suing the U.S. government at the Supreme Court. Its over!
Dec. 17: [On the timeline for his long-promised 9-0 Supreme Court case] It was gonna be today; it switched out til Monday.
Lets be clear: Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election. He lost by every possible measure. He lost the national popular vote (which doesnt decide who wins). He lost the Electoral College (which does). He lost the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He lost each of them by margins far too large to even possibly be changed by voter fraud. He and his allies lost 61 state and federal lawsuits related to the election results. His claims of widespread fraud or a stolen election are baseless and themselves fraudulent. He has no rightful claim to the presidency.
And yet, Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO-turned conspiracy theorist, continues to predict, despite reality, that the election results will be deemed illegitimate, thrown out, and that somehow, this will make Trump the White Houses rightful occupant. How would this work? Unclear. Even if the election were somehow dismissed, why would Trump be given the office? Also unclear. When will this occur? Perpetually, someday soon.
What Lindell has done repeatedly and confidently predicting Trumps return to office time after time, missed deadline after missed deadline isnt just moving the goalposts; its well, metaphors fail. Its moving the whole damn field. Its changing the sport entirely. Its inventing a new game that only he can win, and then managing to lose said game, repeatedly.
Predicted by: Robert McCartney (among many, many, many others), Jan. 1
On Jan. 1, when Washington Post columnist Robert McCartney published his 11th annual predictions quiz about the year ahead, he gave readers six options from which to correctly select the next governor of Virginia. Who would it be? Could Virginia make history by electing a Black woman, like Democratic state Sen. Jennifer McClellan or former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy? Would scandal-plagued Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax improbably resurrect his career after sexual assault allegations? Perhaps a Republican lawmaker, like former state House Speaker Kirk Cox, or the Trumpy state Sen. Amanda Chase?
No. The next governor, McCartney wrote, would be Terry McAuliffe, as Bidens 2020 victory showed theres still plenty of appetite for an old White guy. In November, of course, McAuliffe lost to someone who wasnt even on the list: Republican Glenn Youngkin.
Predicted by: Karl Rove, Feb. 11
Predicted by: John Kerry, April 27
Predicted by: Anthony Scaramucci, May 15
Apparently, fomenting a violent uprising against the government isnt a deal-breaker. With his grip on the GOP still tight, the partys nomination is certainly Trumps if he wants it. And this month, polls on a potential presidential election between Trump and Biden show a tight race: Biden up by 1 (Wall Street Journal, Dec. 7); Biden up by 3 (Echelon Insights, Dec. 14); Trump up by 3 (Harris, Dec. 6). By all appearances, Trump is certainly capable of running in 2024 and winning.
Predicted by: Sean Duffy, Jan. 2
When, on Jan. 2, Watters World guest host Dan Bongino asked Duffy, a former Real World castmate-turned-Wisconsin GOP congressman-turned-Fox News personality, for his predictions for the year ahead, there was not a moments hesitation: Listen, my crystal ball tells me that youre going to have a continued cognitive decline for Joe Biden. By the end of 2021, Kamala Harris will be the president.
Right now, it is Dec. 24, and while Ill concede that it is possible that the next six days bring some truly Earth-shattering news, Biden is still the president. Has his fastball lost some of its zip as hes aged? Sure. Whose doesnt? But there is nothing to suggest anything in the realm of debilitating cognitive decline. And as 2021 ends, Harris is not only not the president, shes been the subject of much critical coverage that has fanned doubts about whether she could ever really be the president.
Predicted by: Donald Trump, Oct. 22, 2020
You can doubt the strength of the Biden economy, debate whether or not the inflation weve experienced is transitory and question all the various statistics trotted out to prove this or that. But its a simple fact that the economy is not in a depression. Its not even in a recession.
Since Biden took office, the unemployment rate has dropped from 6.3 percent to 4.2 percent; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has grown by roughly 14 percent; the S&P 500 is up roughly 21 percent; Americas gross domestic product grew by 7.8 percent over the first three quarters of 2021, even when adjusted for inflation. If thats a depression, then what would be the appropriate term for the economy at the end of the Trump presidency?
Predicted by: Tom Ricks, June 24
In his tweet, Ricks conceded that it was a reckless prediction, but at the time, maybe it didnt seem too crazy. The economy was improving, the pandemic seemed to be receding.
Two months later, the botched Afghanistan withdrawal began to slash away at Bidens ratings. The political fallout from the debacle punctuated by horrific violence, humanitarian disaster and scores of deaths continues to be an albatross on the Biden administration.
By Labor Day, in FiveThirtyEights average, Bidens approval sat at 46.1 percent; his disapproval was 48.3 percent. It was the end of the first full week of the Biden presidency where his approval was underwater. Its been there ever since.
Predicted by: Nate Silver, Aug. 23
There was a time this summer when it appeared that the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom might actually win polls tightened substantially in early August, sparking the typical apocalyptics from the blue-check Twitterati. Pretty decent chance Newsom gets recalled, FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver tweeted before jumping to explain how this reality revealed the foolishness of Dems strategy of not putting forward a potential Newsom successor on question two on the recall ballot: Democrats could potentially keep the seat if they urged their voters to consolidate behind an alternative Democrat but instead theyre telling them not to vote on the replacement!
Come September, Newsom defeated the recall with 62 percent of the vote. And Dems strategy of not consolidating behind an alternative candidate helped Newsom make the vote an up-or-down choice between him and Republican frontrunner Larry Elder rather than giving Democratic voters a viable option on question two (which mightve sweetened the prospect of voting yes on question one).
Silver might take issue with our call that his odds-making counts as a wrong prediction, but the fact is, Newsom ultimately won handily. And his strategy paid off.
Predicted by: Brett Arends, Jan. 22
Predicted by: Myles Udland, Dec. 16, 2020
Turns out there was a reason to worry about inflation. By October, the year-over-year inflation rate was the highest since 1990. By November, it was the highest since 1982. Between January and this writing, the chatter among economists has evolved: It was something you probably didnt need to be worried about. Then it was transitory. Now, it is maybe not so temporary. Hard to tell.
The issue has badly disrupted the first year of the Biden administration, and has a quality not unlike a beach ball in a swimming pool: Try as you might to wrestle it down, it pops back up to the surface over and over again, stubborn to your every effort.
Predicted by: Jamelle Bouie (among many, many others), July 7
In July, my colleague Maya King reported on a trend in suburban Virginia: Tense school board meetings populated by growing numbers of parents angry about the supposed teaching of critical race theory often used by ideological conservatives as a shorthand for how race and social issues are taught in K-12 public schools, even as Loudoun County school officials insisted that the theory was not actually being taught. Could a School-Board Fight Over Critical Race Theory Help Turn Virginia Red?, the headline read.
No, responded Jamelle Bouie, a New York Times columnist who lives in Virginia. The idea, he continued, was an extremely credulous take on Republican wishcasting. (Worth noting: That wasnt an entirely unreasonable assumption, coming four years after stories asked aloud whether fears about the MS-13 gang would spur Republicans to retake the governors mansion.)
It wasnt. Come November, Republicans won the elections for Virginia governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, and regained control of the state House. Was the critical race theory backlash the sole reason why? No. But it appears to have played a substantial role in winning Youngkin the election.
By promising at nearly every campaign stop to ban critical race theory Youngkin resurrected Republican race-baiting tactics in a state that once served as the capital of the Confederacy, wrote the Times Lisa Lerer. It was, wrote the Times Trip Gabriel, his best known pledge embodying the anger that drove the grass roots. And, in a tidy answer to the question posed in the headline of Mayas piece, USA Todays Ledyard King and Mabinty Quarshie reported that the issue sparked a movement that help[ed] turn Virginia from blue to red last month.
Predicted by: Dana Perino, Jan. 4; Matt Grossmann, Nov. 9, 2020; et al
Its an understandable assumption: Georgia has been going hard for Republicans for decades, and a reasonable observer might imagine that the GOP would have the edge in the Jan. 5 run-offs. Down-ticket, Republicans in the state performed strongly in the November elections: While Trump lost to Biden by about 0.3 points in the state, David Perdue led Jon Ossoff by 1.8 points on the same ballot. The states other Senate seat had just undergone an inconclusive jungle primary in which nobody received more than one-third of the vote; but in her bid to defeat Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler was buoyed by a vast fortune and the reality that the Deep South had elected only one Black man to the U.S. Senate since Reconstruction (Tim Scott in neighboring South Carolina). Plus, without Trump on the ballot, Democratic voters might be less inclined to turn out to vote against him.
Nope. With Black voters coming out in huge numbers for Democrats and Republican turnout depressed after Trumps incessant, and false, claims of election fraud, something surprising happened. Warnock and Ossoff won, and delivered Democrats the narrowest possible majority in the U.S. Senate.
Predicted by: Jason Chaffetz, Jan. 2
This one was a bit of Republican wishcasting. Chaffetz, the former GOP congressman from Utah, predicted on the night of Jan. 2 that Nancy Pelosi whose mastery at vote-counting has kept her atop House Democratic leadership for 20 years now would somehow lack the votes to be elected speaker the following day, despite a Democratic majority.
The result was entirely predictable: Pelosi had the votes. Of the 427 members of the House at the time, 216 supported her a margin comfortable enough that a handful of House Democrats from swing seats were free to vote for someone other than her.
Predicted by: G. Elliott Morris, April 25
In fairness, this was not a bad prediction when it was made: Polls throughout the spring showed overwhelming support for Bidens plan to withdraw from Afghanistan.
But by Bidens Sept. 11 deadline, the chaotic U.S. pullout had destabilized his presidency, calling into question the core claims of competence that had long been Bidens ballast.
Its possible that over the long arc of history, Morris prediction will turn out to be correct. But at this point, the pullout was extraordinarily politically damaging for Bidens presidency.
Predicted by: Ben Weingarten, Dec. 30, 2020
A week out from the Georgia Senate run-offs, Benjamin Weingarten, a contributor to the Federalist, appeared on Fox News The Ingraham Angle and laid bare what would happen if Ossoff and Warnock defeated Perdue and Loeffler, delivering Democrats a 50-50 Senate majority. If the Democrats take these two seats, its a guarantee of socialism in this country because youll have D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood. Youll have mass amnesty. Youll have socialized medicine. Youll have the evisceration of the vote integrity.
Two things:
One: A 50-50 Senate could never be read as a mandate for any policy at the ideological extremes of American politics, including socialism. The very nature of the Senate, where members of the minority party have enormous power to block legislation, makes it exceptionally difficult to enact any major policy change.
Two: Clearly, the man has never met Joe Manchin. D.C. statehood? Opposed to it. Puerto Rican statehood? Non-committal. Socialized medicine? Hardly: The man opposed expanding Medicare to cover dental care. Forget socialism; they cant even pass Build Back Better.
Predicted by: Amy Siskind, Jan. 2
Amid the run-up to Jan. 6 as Republican senators like Missouris Josh Hawley announced that theyd object to the count of electoral votes from certain swing states that Biden carried, as pro-Trump die-hards planned a massive rally with the goal of pressuring Congress to essentially discard the results of a democratic election, and as the Big Lie about the 2020 vote metastasized within the Republican electorate a certain amount of (understandable) anxiety percolated among liberals and moderates on Twitter.
Amy Siskind, who rose to online prominence in the early days of the Trump administration by recording and listing out the norms being broken on a weekly basis, was one of the relatively few major voices on #Resistance Twitter urging calm.
Anyone worried about Jan 6 impacting the election dont be, she tweeted on the night of Jan. 2. Its nothing more than a seditious stunt that will go nowhere. Then, a follow-up: If you live in DC, stay off the streets on Jan 6. Let the DC police take care of the white supremacists like they did in Oregon yesterday. I actually think it will be fun to watch lol.
What ultimately happened on Jan. 6, of course, was a brazen attack on both democratic institutions and the democratic process itself: a mob of pro-Trump extremists assaulted police officers, broke into the U.S. Capitol building, called for the hanging of Vice President Mike Pence (and, broadly, heads on pikes), defiled the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (among others), sent staffers and members into hiding for hours, took over the floor of the U.S. Senate, caused law enforcement to draw their weapons and barricade the entrance to the House chamber, led to the use of lethal force against a pro-Trump rioter who attempted to enter the Speakers lobby as members fled, and halted the counting of electoral votes for several hours until armed forces could secure the Capitol complex. Fun to watch lol? Not so much.
Predicted by: David Fegan (among others), Jan. 8
After a half-decade during which @realDonaldTrumps every missive was mainlined into the bloodstream of American politics, it was hard to imagine Twitter without him. Then, two days after the Jan. 6 attack, Twitter permanently blocked him. Suddenly, @realDonaldTrump was no more. And after a couple days, it was not at all hard to imagine Twitter without him. Nearly a year later, Twitters still going strong.
Predicted by: Duncan Ross (among others), Jan. 3
Spoiler alert: Trump remained in office until Biden took the oath on Jan. 20.
Predicted by: Paul Strand, Feb. 17
Many progressives wish he would. But Biden has made no move to expand the court, and his blue-ribbon commission to study the issue did not endorse the idea.
Predicted by: Fortune Magazine, Dec. 2020
Theres a consensus that after 20 years at the helm of the Democratic Party in Congress, Pelosi is nearing the end of her career. That much seems obvious. But there are two big x-factors about her remaining time leading Democrats: when shell step aside, and who her successor will be.
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The Worst Political Predictions of 2021 - POLITICO