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Joe Biden has consistently held a wide polling lead over US President Donald Trump ahead of Novembers election. But, despite Trumps botched response to the Covid-19 pandemic a failure that has left the economy far weaker than it otherwise would have been he has maintained a marginal edge on the question of which candidate would be better for the US economy. Thanks to Trump, a country with just 4% of the worlds population now accounts for more than 20% of total Covid-19 deaths an utterly shameful outcome, given Americas advanced (albeit expensive) healthcare system.

The presumption that Republicans are better than Democrats at economic stewardship is a longstanding myth that must be debunked. In our 1997 book, Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, the late (and great) Alberto Alesina and I showed that Democratic administrations tend to preside over faster growth, lower unemployment and stronger stock markets than Republican presidents do.

In fact, US recessions almost always occur under Republican administrations a pattern that has persisted since our book appeared. The recessions of 1970, 1980-82, 1990, 2001, 2008-09, and, now, 2020 all occurred when a Republican was in the White House (with the exception of the double-dip recession of 1980-82, which started under Jimmy Carter but continued under Ronald Reagan). Likewise, the Great Recession of 2008-09 was triggered by the 2007-08 financial crisis, which also occurred on the GOPs watch.

This tendency is not random: loose regulatory policies lead to financial crises and recessions. And, compounding matters, Republicans consistently pursue reckless fiscal policies, spending as much as Democrats do, but refusing to raise taxes to make up for the resulting budget shortfalls.

Owing to such mismanagement under the George W Bush presidency, President Barack Obama and Vice-president Biden inherited the worst recession since the Great Depression. In early 2009, the US unemployment rate surpassed 10%, growth was in free fall, the budget deficit had already exceeded $1.2tn, and the stock market was down almost 60%. Yet, by the end of Obamas second term in early 2017, all of those indicators had massively improved.

In fact, even before the Covid-19 recession, US employment and GDP growth, as well as the stock markets performance, were better under Obama than under Trump. Just as Trump inherited millions from his father, only to squander it on business failures, so he inherited a strong economy from his predecessor, only to wreck it within a single term.

The rally in equity prices this past August coincided with a hardening of Bidens polling lead, suggesting that markets are not nervous about a Biden presidency, or about the prospects of a Democratic sweep of Congress. The reason is simple: a Biden administration would be unlikely to pursue radical economic policies. Biden may be surrounded by progressive advisers, but they are all fully within the political mainstream. Moreover, his vice-presidential pick, US Senator Kamala Harris of California, is a proven moderate, and most of the Democratic senators who would be seated in a new Congress are more centrist than the leftwing of their party.

Yes, a Biden administration might raise marginal tax rates on corporations and the top 1% of households, which Trump and congressional Republicans cut merely to give wealthy donors and corporations a $1.5tn handout. But a higher tax rate would result in only a modest hit to corporate profits. And any costs to the economy would be more than offset by closing the loopholes that allow for tax avoidance and shifting profits and production abroad, and with Bidens proposed Made in America policies to bring more jobs, profits, and production home.

Moreover, while Trump and his fellow Republicans have not even bothered to formulate a policy platform for this election, Biden has proposed a suite of fiscal policies designed to boost economic growth. If Democrats take control of both houses of Congress and the White House, a Biden administration would pursue a larger fiscal stimulus targeted at households, workers, and small businesses that need it, as well as job-creating infrastructure spending and investments in the green economy. They would not invest in tax cuts for billionaires, but rather in education and worker retraining, and in proactive industrial and innovation policies to ensure future competitiveness. Private business would no longer be terrorised by the president in Twitter tantrums.

Democrats also are calling for higher minimum wages to boost labour income and consumption, along with more sensible regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. They would push for policies to restore some bargaining power to workers, and to protect savers from predatory financial institutions. And they would have a much more sensible approach to trade, immigration, and foreign policy, repairing US alliances and partnerships and pursuing a policy of coop-etition rather than lose-lose containment vis--vis China. All these measures would be good for jobs, growth, and markets.

Although Trump ran as a populist, he is a wannabe plutocrat a pluto-populist and that is how he has governed. His economic policies have been disastrous for US workers and long-term economic competitiveness. Trade and immigration policies that were billed as measures to restore US jobs have had the opposite effect. The deaths of despair that disproportionately afflict white blue-collar and precariat workers have not fallen under Trump; with more than 70,000 drug overdose deaths in 2019, this American carnage continues. If the US is to fill the high-value jobs of the future, it will need to train its workers, not embrace self-destructive protectionism and xenophobia.

The choice for US voters who are concerned about Americas economic prospects could not be clearer. Biden, who has long tapped into blue-collar concerns, is the only presidential candidate in recent history without an Ivy League background. He has a better chance than anyone of rebuilding the Democratic coalition and winning back the support of disaffected, working-class voters. For all Americans who care about their and their childrens future, the right choice this November could not be clearer.

Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at New York Universitys Stern School of Business. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve and the World Bank.

Project Syndicate

Original post:
Why Joe Biden is better than Donald Trump for the US economy - The Guardian

President Trump has alarmed Jewish leaders and others with remarks that appeared to endorse racehorse theory the idea that selective breeding can improve a countrys performance, which American eugenicists and German Nazis used in the last century to buttress their goals of racial purity.

You have good genes, you know that, right? Trump told a mostly white crowd of supporters in Bemidji, Minn., on Sept. 18. You have good genes. A lot of it is about the genes, isnt it? Dont you believe? The racehorse theory. You think were so different? You have good genes in Minnesota.

Rabbi Mark Diamond, a senior lecturer on Jewish studies at Loyola Marymount University, was stunned.

To hear these remarks said at a rally in an election campaign for the presidency is beyond reprehensible, said Diamond, the former executive vice president of the Board of Rabbis of Southern California.

This is at the heart of Nazi ideology This has brought so much tragedy and destruction to the Jewish people and to others. Its actually hard to believe in 2020 we have to revisit these very dangerous theories.

The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Trumps remark was not the first time that he has spoken favorably about the racehorse analogy, which has been embraced by white supremacists for decades. But these latest comments come as the country has been roiled over racial injustice and the protests against it. Trump has continued to make inflammatory remarks and his campaign has made blatantly racist appeals.

During the presidential debate Tuesday, he touched upon the genetic theory, returning to a frequent sentiment that ones skills are innate.

You could never have done the job we did, Trump said to former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee. You dont have it in your blood.

Trump has long spoken about his beliefs in the superiority of his genes, dating back to his days as a Manhattan developer; hes talked less frequently of his belief in the racehorse theory, which basically calls for using breeding to encourage desirable traits and eliminate undesirable traits.

Initially used for horses, the theory was ultimately used to justify selective breeding of people, including forced sterilization laws that were on the books in 32 states and used in some of them up through the 1970s.

Scientists who study human intelligence and accomplishment generally agree that while genetics may play some role, the success of individuals is heavily shaped by their environment, including their families and neighborhoods, as well as other factors including mentoring some people receive and simple chance.

Trump views the issue differently.

You can absolutely be taught things. Absolutely. You can get a lot better. But there is something. You know, the racehorse theory, there is something to the genes, Trump told Larry King on CNN in 2007. And I mean, when I say something, I mean a lot.

Three years later, he told CNN that his father was successful and it naturally followed that he would be too: I have a certain gene. Im a gene believer. Hey, when you connect two racehorses, you usually end up with a fast horse. And I really was you know, I had a a good gene pool from the standpoint of that.

He used the phrase again at a 2016 campaign rally in Iowa, and his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., told his fathers biographer that the family believed in the theory.

Like him, Im a big believer in racehorse theory. Hes an incredibly accomplished guy, my mothers incredibly accomplished, shes an Olympian, so Id like to believe genetically Im predisposed to better-than-average, Trump Jr. told Michael DAntonio in a 2014 interview, according to a transcript provided by the author.

DAntonio, now a Trump critic whose scathing biography Never Enough was published in 2015, vividly recalled the interview.

I happened to have done a book on eugenics so I knew exactly what he was talking about, I knew where it came from, said DAntonio, who had written a nonfiction book about the confinement of learning-disabled orphans in Massachusetts. This was something American pseudo-scientists taught the Nazis. It sent a chill through me.

In the late 1800s and early 1900s, some mainstream scientists and elected officials in the United States, particularly in California, urged the improvement of the citizenry through eugenics. The concept was often used against people of color, Jewish people and Native Americans, but it was also used against white people who were deemed feeble-minded, delinquent or otherwise damaged.

Eugenics arose in the U.S. as the gains Black people had made during the Reconstruction era came under attack by white people aiming to maintain power, often by murder and mob violence. It was also used to argue against immigration by Italians and others.

Across the U.S., there were two avenues that eugenicists used to exploit what they thought of as the racehorse theory of human development, DAntonio said.

The first was to encourage people deemed to have superior traits to have large families. These efforts were partly encouraged by fitter family competitions at state fairs, where well-nourished white families would be judged on their height, weight, size of their heads and symmetry of their faces alongside the competitions for the heartiest livestock and largest crops. Winners would frequently be recognized in newspapers.

(Nazi Germany ran the Lebensborn program to cultivate Aryan traits. The state provided support to pregnant women mostly unmarried deemed racially pure; many of the babies were given to German couples, often SS officers and their families.)

The second avenue in the U.S. was institutionalization and sterilization. Children, often minorities, who were deemed troubled or labeled with the term imbeciles were confined to institutions. More than 65,000 people were officially sterilized against their will, said Paul Lombardo, a Georgia State University law professor who specializes in bioethics, though he suspects the actual number is far larger.

He said eugenics theory was used to justify forced sterilization laws, as well as immigration restrictions and miscegenation prohibitions. American eugenicists conversed with German leaders in the 1920s and 1930s, and their policies became part of the Nazi playbook. In Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler wrote approvingly about the United States immigration restrictions, Lombardo said.

At the Nuremberg trials, after World War II, Nazi defenders noted that Americans had also forcibly sterilized people and quoted a U.S. Supreme Court ruling from the 1920s that said state laws allowing such procedures did not violate the Constitution, said Lombardo, who has written two books on the history of eugenics in the U.S.

When Trump says at a rally in Minnesota, You have good genes, I believe in the racehorse theory of heredity, he has all of the earmarks of a classic eugenicist, Lombardo said. It has been astounding to me as somebody who has studied this stuff for 40 years that any public figure would be willing to use that kind of language that so clearly echoes the kinds of things we heard from the people who were running the eugenics movement back in the 20s and 30s.

Rob Eshman, the former editor of the Jewish Journal who is now the national editor of the influential Jewish American online newspaper the Forward, said Trumps language was a clear signal to his supporters who harbor racist or anti-Semitic views.

Racehorse theory is basically like a forerunner to eugenics theory, which led to the Nazis final solution, Eshman said after Trumps Minnesota comments. Its one of the least coded messages he has sent.

Read the original:
Jewish leaders alarmed by Trump's support of 'racehorse theory' - Los Angeles Times

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) Donald Trump Jr. says his father is ready and excited to take the debate stage again.

(Photo Credit: KDKA)

In a one-on-one interview with KDKAs Meghan Schiller, President Donald Trumps son said his father did not get a fair shake during the first presidential debate on Tuesday.

My father is a fighter. I think hes fought for the American people, Trump Jr. said. Thats why we see the results that you see for America.

During a media tour on Wednesday, Trump Jr. said he still has not had a chance to talk to his dad following the debate.

Schiller: If you could have texted your dad any advice during the debate last night, what would you have said to him?

Trump Jr.: His policies are so good, I think he could have gone into more detail on that. It is sort of hard when the moderator is interrupting you.

The president claims that he debated both Joe Biden and Fox News moderator Chris Wallace, tweeting a picture after the debate.

Joe Biden has been talking about concepts for 47 years, but he hasnt actually gotten anything done, Trump Jr. said. Ask your viewers, if youre on the fence, name a Joe Biden accomplishment?

Bidens supporters did take issue when President Trump told the far-right Proud Boy to stand by.

Schiller: Does your father support white supremacy?

Trump Jr.: Of course not, he literally said it twice. Last week alone, he denounced the KKK as a domestic terrorist organization. Hes said this a thousand times. So he was asking for clarification after literally affirmatively agreeing that, of course, they are to be denounced.

On Wednesday, the commission that oversees the debates said it will make changes in the wake of the chaos that happening Tuesday night.

More here:
After President Trump Tells Proud Boys To Stand By, Donald Trump Jr. Says His Father Doesnt Support White Supremacy - CBS Pittsburgh

People in the New York neighbourhood where Donald Trump grew up know only too well that COVID-19 doesn't discriminate.

In six months more than 33,000 people have died with the virus in New York and more than 6,000 in the borough of Queens - the city's worst-hit area.

Elmhurst Hospital in Queens was at the epicentre of New York's outbreak. The scenes were described by staff as apocalyptic. It was so overwhelmed with patients that refrigerated lorries were brought in to store the dead.

Perhaps little surprise there was a sense of frustration from hospital staff to news the president has tested positive.

"He's acting like he's immune, like he's a superhero. He's a normal regular person," said healthcare worker Angel Candelario. "America's supposed to consider itself a superpower. Right now, it doesn't look like it."

This has all come at a deeply testing and tense time for America, and just a month from the presidential election. The country has lost more people than anywhere else in the world to COVID-19 - more than 207,000 lives, accounting for more than 20% of global deaths.

You don't need to go far in Queens to meet someone who has lost a loved one to COVID-19 - and many lost patience with the president's handling of the crisis months ago.

"It's very scary. He should have found a safer way and used his mask," said hospital worker Audrey Murphy. "If the president has COVID, it gives a bad outlook for everybody else.

"I lost a lot of people that I work with and friends and family. And I just think it should have been handled in a better way."

The president politicised face masks early on in the pandemic, only endorsing them four months into the crisis. Even then he has only personally been seen in public two or three time wearing a mask - instead, he opts for daily testing and has often referred to himself as the most tested person in America. But testing doesn't protect from the virus.

Now, Mr Trump's diagnosis undermines his positive spin on the pandemic and a core message of his election campaign that America is through the worst of the pandemic.

What will be telling is how his positive test is received by swathes of Americans who believe the threat of coronavirus is being exaggerated to hamper his re-election.

Len Swanson first met Sky News at an anti-masking rally in Texas. He calls himself the face of the resistance to coronavirus measures and is unconcerned by the president's illness.

"Yes your prime minister got sick but he's not Donald Trump," Mr Swanson told Sky News.

"Donald Trump has kept himself in better health conditions than your prime minister did. We're not concerned with our president. I know he's got the same attitude and resolve as I do.

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"He is right now conducting meetings. He's on Zoom meetings. He's on the telephone now. He's not sitting in bed. He's being the president... It's a hoax. It's a virus, yes, but it has been politicised as a weapon to strike fear in order to try to derail the Trump government."

The reality is we don't know what Mr Trump is doing right now. This is a narrative some of his supporters want to believe - that coronavirus is a hoax and that the commander in chief is still actively at the helm running the country from quarantine. In the coming weeks the reality could be very different if the president's health deteriorates.

This is a crucial moment in the election cycle - and one of the most testing years in American history. The president's health has now thrown the country into yet more uncertainty.

The rest is here:
Donald Trump's coronavirus diagnosis: Americans react with anger, frustration and lack of concern - Sky News

Sounding, at first, a little like Dante from Clerks, Stephen Colbert opened Friday nights monologue reminding us he wasnt even supposed to be there. (The show rarely tapes on Friday.) But the Late Show host rose to the challenge of remaining funny and maintaining opposition to Donald Trump without seeming indecent after news broke of the president testing positive for coronavirus.

His 12-minute monologue does get some zings in, but only after a while. He opened with a wink-free declaration that this is a serious moment for our nation, and we all wish the President and the First Lady of the United States a speedy and a full recovery. He then pivoted to soft targets, like Texas politician and former physician to the president Ronny Jackson for his weird tweet about comorbities and Trump being asymptotic.

Colbert slowly allowed himself to get a little angry over images of Trump in the presence of servicemen and operators of Marine One. With a lighter-than-usual touch, Colbert began outlining how Trumps negligence continues to put innocent people in harms way.

Considering just how much news erupted on Friday, Colberts monologue was an important reminder of some key facts. One such item is that Trumps key aide Hope Hicks was feeling ill on Wednesday, and Trump knew of her diagnosis by Thursday morning, but no one thought to alert people who had been in her presence. Indeed, White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany, who had been in contact with Hicks, led her daily press conference, maskless, without any knowledge of her potential exposure.

Colbert also reminded that Trump attended his Bedminster, New Jersey fundraiser aware of his exposure to Hicks. Many people may become sick, but at least we got to hear the late night hosts Thurston Howell III impression.

He wrapped it up (after mentioning the 30,500 percent spike in searches for the word schadenfreude) by once again wishing the president well, mostly because it is important that the most powerful man on the planet be in his best possible condition, for all of our sakes.

Where to Watch The Late Show:

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Stephen Colbert Takes the High Road on Donald Trumps COVID Comeuppance - Vanity Fair