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Joe Bidens vote share in Kenosha, Wisconsin was conspicuously low

May 22nd 2021

AS PROTESTERS FILLED American streets last year to decry the killing of George Floyd, Joe Biden had reason to feel nervous. Four days before Floyds death, Omar Wasow, an academic, published a paper claiming that violent racial-justice demonstrations following the murder of Martin Luther King in 1968 had set off a backlash. Vote shares for Richard Nixon, who ran for president promising law and order, were 1.5-7.9 percentage points higher in mostly white areas near violent protests than in comparable ones that were farther away.

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Democrats fears now look ill-founded. Just 6% of the 10,000 Black Lives Matter demonstrations in May-October 2020 were violent, according to ACLED, a database. Mr Bidens lead in polls grew in the wake of Floyds murder. A recent study by Bouke Klein Teeselink of Yale and Georgios Melios of University College London argued that the protests in fact aided Mr Biden. It found that Democrats vote share rose more in 2016-20 in areas with good weather in late springcausing large, frequent marchesthan in places where it rained.

However, this paper treated violent and peaceful protests equally. When marches did turn violent, data from Kenosha, Wisconsin imply that Republicans benefited.

In August Kenosha police shot Jacob Blake, a black man. Enraged citizens took to the streets; many looted stores and burned down buildings. A local business group estimated the damage at $50m.

Last week Jesse Richardson, a university student, published a blog noting that Mr Bidens vote share was lower in Kenosha than in similar parts of Wisconsin. Following his work, The Economist drilled down to the precinct level, the smallest electoral unit. Using demography, density and vote history, we built a model to predict presidential votes in the states 3,300 precincts.

Beyond a 30-mile radius from Kenosha, the model matched reported votes well. Within that circle, however, Mr Bidens vote share lagged its estimate. Near its centre, he fell short by 2.4 percentage points. Among Wisconsins 50 most populous counties, Mr Bidens biggest deficit relative to predicted votes was in Kenosha County.

The presidents weak showing in Kenosha could have been caused by something besides the protests. But the most likely interpretation is that when frustration with the police boils over into lawless demonstrations, the party seeking changes to policing tends to pay an electoral price.

Sources: Wisconsin secretary of state; US Census Bureau;The Economist

This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline "Price of progress"

Read the rest here:
Rioting amid demonstrations for racial justice may have helped Donald Trump - The Economist

This week, New York Attorney General Letitia James revealed that her civil law inquiry into the corporate entity known as the Trump Organization has become a criminal investigation. In that same brief statement, New York state's top law enforcement official also explained that James' office has partnered with the Manhattan district attorney, who is already investigating potential criminal tax fraud violations committed personally by former President Donald Trump.

For the Trump family, it may already be too late to get their stories straight.

This week also brought news that the Trump Organization's CFO, Allen Weisselberg, is the subject of a New York state criminal investigation into his personal taxes which appears to be an attempt to leverage his cooperation in the Trump Organization case.

Former Trump Organization Vice President Michael Cohen, upon learning of the now-criminal probe, said of the Trump children, "I think Trump is going to flip on them." While we have no idea what the future will hold, we do know that what this all means is that if they haven't already it's time for members of the Trump family who served as organization employees to each retain experienced criminal defense lawyers.

In fact, depending on what those Trump Organization family members have already said and to whom it may already be too late. Importantly, because the Trump Organization case is now criminal, individual employees and officers of that organization can face criminal charges for their specific roles in any corporate wrongdoing. Donald Jr. and Eric still serve as executive vice presidents of the organization, a title that Ivanka Trump previously also held. And, of course, before his presidency, their infamous father was at the helm of the organization.

During my FBI career, including my time leading one of the largest white-collar crime branches in the field, and later, as a corporate security executive, I saw corporate employees mistakenly think that their companies' attorneys represented them, too, in cases of corporate malfeasance. Big mistake. A company attorney represents the company, not the individual employees or executives. It's quite likely that Trump Organization attorneys have already asked and Trump family members have already answered questions about what each of them did or did not do that might be the focus of New York's investigation.

Depending on what those Trump Organization family members have already said and to whom it may already be too late.

In fact, there's a whole body of case law on what it means when an employee answers questions posed by a company's attorneys or investigators to try to get to the bottom of who did what. There's even a kind of "corporate Miranda warning" that ethical companies give their employees who are asked to provide statements when a company is trying to determine whether it's in trouble.

These advisements called "Upjohn warnings" developed out of a Supreme Court case involving a pharmaceutical company accused of paying bribes overseas. The Upjohn case resulted in a kind of good news/bad news conclusion. The good news for corporations was that the court found that attorney-client privilege applied to communications between company attorneys and employees.

That meant companies could confidentially rely on, and preserve under privilege, what their employees told them about what went wrong. The bad news for employees was that the attorney-client privilege had nothing to do with them. The privilege belonged to the company, and the company could waive that privilege in a heartbeat if it wanted to expose employees' statements and pin the blame on them.

If any of the Trump family members have already even casually answered questions posed by their organization's counsel or hired investigators, they may have mistakenly thought that what they were providing was privileged. And those statements would be privileged but not if the organization decided, in its own interest or at the direction of the former president, that maybe Eric or Don Jr. or Ivanka needed to take the fall to save the organization or keep its notorious CEO out of prison.

The good news for corporations was that the court found that attorney-client privilege applied to communications between company attorneys and employees.

Each of the organization's employees and officers will have their own stories to tell law enforcement agents and prosecutors about their own roles at the company and their own knowledge and intent when it came to possible criminal wrongdoing.

Often, those stories of corporate employees vary widely as to what they believe their colleagues did or didn't do even when those colleagues are your children, your brothers, your sister or your father. For the Trump family, it may already be too late to get their stories straight. And doing so may not even be in their individual best interests. That's why it's time for each of them to separately lawyer up, avoid public statements and be really nice to one another.

Frank Figliuzzi is an MSNBC columnist anda national security contributor for NBC News and MSNBC. He was the assistant director for counterintelligence at the FBI, where he served 25 years as a special agent and directed all espionage investigations across the government. He is the author of "The FBI Way: Inside the Bureau's Code of Excellence."

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The Trump criminal probe's heating up. Here's why the Trump children might want to lawyer up. - MSNBC

Capital T: The Trump International Hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue has a 60-year lease from the U.S. government.

Donald Trump, the landlord, was often accused of using his time in the Oval Office to pad his private business interests. His critics repeatedly decried his lack of transparency. The former president never had to publicly disclose who his tenants were because his commercial real estate portfolio was held by a collection of shell companies, and federal disclosure laws only apply to direct payments.

Last year Forbes revealed that 25 commercial tenants renting space in Trumps buildings were throwing him some $115 million a year. During the former presidents time in office, some of those tenantsfrom big investment banks to household-name consumer brands like Nike, Duane Reade and Starbuckshad either lobbied the federal government or bid for federal contracts, or sometimes both.

Meanwhile, the whiff of impropriety has also lingered over Donald Trump, the tenant. His lavish Washington, D.C. hotel is ensconced inside the spectacular Old Post Office, a federal building with a unique, historic importance to the country. From its completion in 1899, the impressive building, whose iconic clock tower houses the Bells of Congress, served for years at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue as the main post office for the nations capital. Yet in the modern era, the building had become an underutilized money pit.

In 2012, the U.S. government awarded a 60-year lease to the Trump Organization, which beat out bids by hospitality behemoths Marriott International and Hilton Worldwide. Trump said that he had paid too much, and history may prove that Uncle Sam got the best of him.

In striking a deal with the General Services Administration (GSA), the agency that manages federally owned properties, the Trump Organization agreed to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to painstakingly restore the buildings Romanesque Revival exterior and convert the interior into a luxury hotel. To cover the massive renovation costs, Trumps company invested $42 million, got an historic-preservation tax credit to cover roughly $40million, and took out a $170 million loan from Deutsche Bank, which appears to be in trouble. On top of all of that, the Trump Organization pays the government approximately $248,000 per month in rentwhich works out to a cool $3 million per year.

Throughout Trumps presidency, Democratic members of the U.S. Housesubcommittee tasked with oversight of federal real estate assets argued that Trump was in breach of the lease when he became president, on the grounds that the agreement prohibits any elected official from benefitting personally from the lease. They made 10 requests for financial statements relating to the Trump International Hotel, including a subpoena in 2019. All were blocked by the Trump-appointed GSA administrator.

But now it appears that the eleventh times the charm. With a Biden-appointed acting administrator now running the agency, the GSA is finally coughing up some of those documents, CNN reported last week. The GSA conveyed to House Transportation Chairman Peter DeFazio, the that it was turning over monthly financial statements from Trumps hotel, audits and lease amendments.

The GSA provided those documents on a confidential basis and have not released them publicly, though some older documents relating to the Old Post Office are available online. Many have been heavily redacted.

Yet despite the GSAs years of stonewalling and less-than-transparent paper trail, Trump foes hoping to discover a smoking gun may be disappointed.

The tenant is paying the rent as agreed to under the lease and has been making rental payments consistent with its obligations under the lease. Those payments have not been late, said a GSA spokesperson via email.

In April 2020, the Trump Organization requested rent relief on the property during the pandemic, The New York Times reportedbut that request was denied.

The tenant did not receive rent relief for the OPO lease, according to the GSA. And there have been no amendments to the lease to change the rental payments.

That is all 100% correct, a Trump Organization spokesperson confirmed via email.

The ribbon-cutting ceremony took place in the grand lobby of Trump international Hotel on October 26, 2016. (Photo by Cheriss May)

In many ways, the fortunes of Trumps D.C. hotel have mirrored the former presidents political trajectory. Right after the 2016 presidential election, the hotel became instantly synonymous with schmoozy grift, as right-wing personalities and GOP elected officials made a point of frequenting the hotel and taking selfies in the Benjamin Bar. The hotel took in $18 million in the first four months of 2017 and another $34 million in the last eight,according to Trumps financial disclosure report.

But in time, the magic wore off. By 2019, the Trump Organization had quietly put the hotel on the market but failed to nab a bid even close to the $500 million asking price. Trumps lastfinancial disclosure report,released in the hours after his presidency ended, showed theTrump International Hotels revenue was down$33 million in 2020a 62% drop from the previous year. And while the hotel was eventually pulled off the market, Bloomberg reported last month that the Trumps were still open to offers.

Now, with Trump having exited D.C., the line of folks wanting to curry favor by spending a few nights at his hotel or making an appearance at the restaurant has dwindledleaving the hotels future unclear.

Go here to see the original:
Donald Trump Is An Exemplary Tenant, Says His Washington D.C. Landlord - Forbes

Many of you readers will remember that in March Lester Bender of Albion shared with me the story about his 8-year-old granddaughter who wrote to former President Trump because she had read a book about him. Well, he wrote back! Lester shared a photo of the letter she received. The letter with the letterhead reading Donald and Melania Trump said: Thank you for your wonderful letter. We are inspired by your words and heartened by your support. Our Nations bright future relies upon your leadership, commitment and character. Do your best each day, enjoy learning and never, ever give up. Always remember you have family, friends, teachers and coaches who care about you and will help you reach your full potential. May God bless you and your family. With very best wishes, Donald Trump and Melania Trump

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This is the story from the March 19 column about Mallorys letter:

Mallory, 8, read a book about former President Trump. When she asked her mother for former President Trumps address, her mother said she didnt know but she could still write a letter. Mallory got on their laptop and soon found the former presidents address. This is what her letter, written by hand, said. Dear Donald Trump, I loved your speech. I knew you were the best president our country has ever had. I love you because you love America. My address is ... I keep telling my mom to have you come to our house. We have a good family and we voted for you. We would really give you hugs. I really would want to meet you. You could ride an airplane to get here. You really have a very very good family. I am a second grader at Topeka Elem. There is a book about you that I read. I really enjoyed that book. I really hope you can come here. By your friend Mallory. Grandpa Les and Grandma Judy Bender of Albion.

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Vi was with her granddaughters for supper while the girls parents were attending a meeting. After feeding baby Violette, Vi put her on the floor, letting her crawl wherever she wished. As the older girls were eating, Vi reminded them to eat over their plates, to catch the crumbs. Nonetheless, bits of food fell to the floor, as happens with preschoolers. Oldest sister, Eva, commented. Some people have dogs that clean up what drops to the floor we have a baby! And that is what prompted Vi to notice that indeed baby Violette was under the table, enjoying the tasty bits of dinner that she was finding on the floor. Vi Wysong of rural Wawaka

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Thank you for your letters, by U.S. mail and email. When you share your stories and photos through this column, you brighten the lives of many people. Please email me at ghousholder@kpcmedia.com or mail stories to me at 816 Mott St., Kendallville, IN 46755. Please share this column with friends and family and encourage them to email to me their stories.

Link:
Donald and Melania Trump tell area second grader to 'never, ever give up' - KPCnews.com

Donald Trumpcalled the 2020 presidential election the crime of the century on Saturday, even as Republican leaders scrambled to dodge the fallout from the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol that supporters of the former president carried out earlier this year.

Trump also blasted Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as weak and pathetic in a post on his so-called communications platform. He went after former Vice President Mike Pence for lacking the courage to reverse the results of the election, which Joe Biden won.

Screen Shot/Donald J. Trump blog

If Pence and McConnell had reinstalled Trump as head of the nation, we would right now have a Republican President who would be VETOING the horrific Socialistic Bills that are rapidly going through Congress, including Open Borders, High Taxes, Massive Regulations, and so much else! Trump wrote.

There are no open borders. Taxes have not been increased, though Biden is planning to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 25% to 28% after Trump arranged to slash the corporate tax rate by 40%. Its unclear what massive regulations Trump was referring to.

Trump also claimed that polling ahead of the election was rigged. He argued that his supporters didnt bother to vote because polls made him look like such an incredible winner or that polls made him look like such an astounding loser that his supporters didnt think it was worthwhile to vote. The position that not enough of his supporters turned out to vote would seemingly contradict Trumps claims that ballots were somehow miscounted.

Trumps latest rant about the election results comes at an awkward time for fence-straddling Republican leaders, who have both been feeding oxygen to the big lie that the election was rigged and sort of denying it exists.

I dont think anybody is questioning the legitimacy of the presidential election, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Wednesday after he and other congressional leaders met with Biden. I think that is all over with. Were sitting here with the president today.

However, several Republicans indeed have continued to undermine the legitimacy of the democraticpresidential election.

On Wednesday,House Republicans voted to oust Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) from her leadership role aftershe refused to go along with Trumps lies about the election. The former presidents rhetoric about election fraud motivated rioters to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) said Biden was legitimately elected, but added in a dig that we need to make sure that we have unquestioned elections moving forward.

And Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) tried to deny that the Capitol riot occurred. There was no insurrection, he said last week. He also described rioters violent behavior as a normal tourist visit to the Capitol.

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) has called the rioters peaceful patriots.

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Donald Trump Bashes 2020 Presidential Election As 'Crime Of The Century' - HuffPost