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Steven E. Schier and Todd E. Eberly, Opinion contributors Published 6:00 a.m. ET Jan. 27, 2020

Trump is still an outsider and voters are still fed up good 2020 omens for him. But his opponent might not have Hillary Clinton's vulnerabilities.

Lots of things have to go right for President Donald Trump to retain his grasp on the Oval Office.But so far, much in the 2020 political environment and in Trumps campaign tactics point toward a replay of his upset victory.

There are three broad characteristics of the 2016 political environment that helped Trump gain the White House: a growing popular discontent with the government,the rise of the professional governmentand increasing partisan polarization.

How does all this stack up now?The three big trends that aided Trump in 2016 are still with us in 2020.

First, in the last presidential election, popular discontent with governmentcreated a widespread distrust of established leaders and institutions.Today, this dynamic is as strong as ever.The nonpartisan Pew Research Center found last yearthat only 17%of the public trusted the government in Washington to do the right thing all or most of the time, the lowest level since the question was first asked in 1958.

Second, governing professionals are an elite built on merit through occupational accomplishment. And, despite Trumps rhetorical fulminations, the professional governmentin Washington has not shrank since 2016. Federal spending in fiscal2020equals about 21%of the nations gross domestic product, a level that has remained stable during Trumps time in the White House.

Third, the public is wary of the Washington establishment Trump shrewdly labels it the swamp and disdains the constant partisan scrapping that dominates news coverage of national government.Under Trump, partisan polarization has become even more pronounced, culminating in the almost entirelyparty line votes to impeach Trump in the House.In the electorate, we have witnessed the rise of negative partisanship, with partisans taking an increasingly negative and hostile view of adherents of the other major party.

President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Toledo, Ohio, on Jan. 9, 2020.(Photo: Jacquelyn Martin, AP)

Indications are thatTrump intends to repeatmuch of the strategy used to secure victory in 2016.Can he continue to benefit from this unpleasant environment?That will very much depend on four campaign features that delivered him victory:

Outsider status. During the 2016 election, Trumps long career as a public celebrity gave him an identity and brand widely known to the publicand the perception that he was a political outsider. Despite incumbency, the president'soutsiderstatus seems intact and is reinforced by his daily cascade of unorthodox and vituperative tweets.

Battlegrounds 2020: Its not the economy, stupid. It's Donald Trump.

Social media. Much like his 2016 efforts, his campaign is well positioned to exploit social media to itelectoral advantage.While Democratic presidential candidates spent millions sparring with each other, Trump in 2019 amassed $143 million for his campaign. He can tout a growing economy as a major campaign theme.

Disillusioned voters. As in 2016, Trumps outsider style and message seemlikely again to resonate with thevoters fed up with the Washington establishment.

Big wild card.Trumps 2020 opponent may or may not have the same vulnerabilities asHillary Clinton had.Clinton represented the polarized and professional governing class that Trump rightly saw as an inviting target for his outsider message and demeanor. With historically high negatives, Trump and his 2016 campaign team understood that he would not win a popularity contest. Instead, the focus was on winning a contest among the unpopular.

Beating Trump: Four clues for Democrats from Michigan's winning 2018 playbook

Reelection is far from a sure thing for President Trump.After all, his job approval in office has seldom matched the 46.1%of the vote he received in the 2016 election an election in which he lost the popular vote by 2.87million ballots. But the signs point toward another bitter, divisive and closely contested presidential race in 2020.That worked for Trump in 2016 and may well work for him again.

Steven E. Schier is emeritus professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota. Todd E. Eberly is professor of political science at Saint Marys College of Maryland. Their book, "How Trump Happened: A System Shock Decades in the Making," will be published in March.

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Trends and tactics that propelled Donald Trump to his 2016 win could reelect him in 2020 - USA TODAY

As I write this, theNo. 1book on Amazon is titled A Very Stable Genius: Donald J. Trumps Testing of America. It was written by two reporters from the Trump-averse Washington Post, who, as publicity for the book tells us, are both Pulitzer Prize winners.

That same publicity does not acknowledge that only liberals now typically win Pulitzers, Nobel Prizes, Oscars or Emmys. But then, that would detract from the purpose of the book which is to weaken, belittle and even smear the president.

Ironically but not surprisingly, the title of this umpteenth book attacking Trump came about because of a series of tweets by the president two years ago when he was defending himself against wait for it another book from another liberal writer filled with personal attacks on the president.

That particular effort was Michael Wolff's Fire and Fury, a book that many Trump supporters and even liberal media personalities believe is filled with multiple inaccuracies or outright flights of imagination. As the media gave that book andits author saturation coverage, Trump seemingly felt he had no option but to defend himself against its charges. So he tweeted, in his own style.

Said the president, in part, two years ago, Now that Russian collusion, after one year of intense study, has proven to be a total hoax on the American public, the Democrats and their lapdogs, the Fake News Mainstream Media, are taking out the old Ronald Reagan playbook and screaming mental stability and intelligence. Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart. ... I went from VERY successful businessman, to top T.V. Star ... to President of the United States (on my first try). I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius ... and a very stable genius at that!

Anyone who has followed Trumps career knows that he likes to use hyperbole to push buttons and elicit responses that he often is trying to create for his own purposes down the line.

No doubt the reporters from The Washington Post knew this but still chose to use A Very Stable Genius in its most literal sense to paint the president as an egotist and create clicks and book sales.

That said, the presidents tweet and this subsequent book title raise a legitimate question that will create a very loud, rage-filled debate: Is Donald J. Trump one of the smartest presidents in U.S. history?

The answer depends upon the criteria used and here you can cue the predictable outrage. Liberals will scream out the names of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy, Clinton and Obama.

To be sure, Thomas Jefferson and Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonFox News poll: Half of Americans say Trump should be convicted and removed Sunday shows - Spotlight shifts to Trump tweet, Senate trial witnesses Fox's Wallace confronts Dershowitz with clip arguing crime not necessary for impeachment MORE are among the presidents estimated to have had tremendous intellectual horsepower. Speaking to Jeffersons true genius, President John F. Kennedy remarked at a 1962 dinner honoring that years Nobel Prize winners, I think this is the most extraordinary collection of talent, of human knowledge, that has ever been gathered together at The White House, with the possible exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone.

Almost 200 years after Jeffersons death, his genius continues to pass the test of time. Not so with other presidents.

If the definition of smart, at least for this purpose, folds in raw intelligence, street smarts, intuition, real-world experience, business success, job creation, wealth creation, a fighters instinct, and knowing when to roll the dice or to bluff, then Trump might stand relatively high onthe presidential smarts pyramid.

Just the fact that he got himself elected president of the United States on his first try, as he says on his own, against all odds, as an outsider with zero political experience, amid ridicule and attacks by both political parties, the mainstream media, Hollywood and academia should get Trump honorable mention for top billing.

For nearly five decades, reporters and rivals have been writing the End of Trumps 15 Minutes of Fame obituary. Except that, on Jan. 20, 2017, this purported failure and human asterisk to fame, business success and history was sworn in as the 45th president of the United States.

This Very Stable Genius is up for reelectionin November. Most likely, those who dislike the man who has continually beaten the odds and the predictions of failure will have to try to beat him at the ballot box and not with doomed-to-failurepolitical tricks.

Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.

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Is Donald Trump one of the smartest presidents in US history? | TheHill - The Hill

WASHINGTON A few days after Election Day in 2016, Donald J. Trump received a call on his cellphone from Michael R. Bloomberg, an old acquaintance he had clashed with during the campaign.

Mr. Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York City, had called to offer his congratulations, but the president-elect cut him off.

You were very mean to me! Mr. Trump said, according to people familiar with the call. Mr. Trump was referring to Mr. Bloombergs slashing speech that year at the Democratic National Convention, during which he called the Republican a con and called on voters to elect a sane, competent person.

Mr. Trump settled down almost immediately, then turned the conversation toward his latest predicament: quickly hiring people to fill out his government.

Mr. Bloomberg, according to the people briefed on the call, told him that when he was first elected mayor in 2001, he, too, had never served in government. What Mr. Trump should do, Mr. Bloomberg advised, was to hire a lot of people smarter than you.

Mike, Mr. Trump replied tersely, there is no one smarter than me. A startled Mr. Bloomberg paused before turning the conversation to a less fraught subject: golf.

The 10-minute phone conversation was the last time the two men spoke.

Mr. Bloomberg is now pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into an effort to become the Democratic presidential nominee, an unprecedented self-financed campaign that the partys top-polling candidates have mostly ignored. But much of Mr. Bloombergs spending does not promote his own campaign at all, and instead attacks Mr. Trump on issues like health care and integrity in the military a blitz of negative television ads that has managed to anger the president.

Though aides have implored him not to take the bait, Mr. Trump has been unable to resist. He has branded Mr. Bloomberg, who is 5 feet 7 inches tall, as Mini Mike on Twitter, and sparred with him over health care. He has also told aides that Mr. Bloomberg is a bad guy.

When it was disclosed that Mr. Bloomberg had bought a Super Bowl ad for about $10 million, for instance, the presidents re-election campaign, within hours, said that it had also bought a $10 million ad to be aired during the game.

As members of Manhattans wealthy elite for decades, Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Trump, while never friends, sometimes crossed paths at a charity golf game or a fund-raiser. Over the years they have boosted each other when it served to boost themselves.

Mr. Trump often praised Mr. Bloombergs leadership of New York City. And Mr. Bloomberg gave him an implicit stamp of approval when he twice appeared on Mr. Trumps reality TV show, The Apprentice, and when his administration awarded Mr. Trump a city contract to refurbish a golf course.

In 2008, Mr. Bloomberg joined Mr. Trump, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Joe Torre, then the Yankees manager, for an event at Mr. Trumps golf course in Westchester County, N.Y., where they were photographed grinning together in matching tightly fitted caps.

Both men now play down any moments of bonhomie from their past.

Like Mr. Trump before him, Mr. Bloomberg had flirted with running for president for so long, it had become something of a political punch line until he actually jumped into the race in November.

As Mr. Bloomberg weighed a presidential run last winter, some Trump advisers thought he would make a useful target for Mr. Trump, always in need of a foil, because of his history of trying to ban sugary drinks in New York City and his advocacy against guns. But on an intuitive level, Mr. Trump is keenly aware of how things play on television and the potency of running as a change agent. Frustrated, he has recently told associates that Mr. Bloomberg is trying to buy the election, and noted that even he himself took donations in his 2016 campaign.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Mr. Bloombergs transactionalism and interest in winning whatever contest he is part of also has echoes of Mr. Trumps approach.

Both men built up their fortunes in the 1980s in New York one a self-made billionaire who spent his money lavishly, the other born into privilege and often described as frugal slapping their names on their companies and their products. Mr. Trump, a garrulous entertainer, was a contrast with Mr. Bloomberg, a dry-humored businessman whose Massachusetts accent has never totally faded.

By the time Mr. Bloomberg took office in 2002, Mr. Trump was not a builder in New York City so much as an entertainer, a brander and a licenser, and so had less business to conduct with Mr. Bloomberg than with two of the previous mayors, Mr. Giuliani and Ed Koch. Mr. Trump had a famously cantankerous relationship with Mr. Koch, but needed support from him and from Mr. Giuliani for his development projects.

Mr. Trump, after backing Democrats when Mr. Bloomberg was running for mayor as a Republican in 2001, became a full-throated supporter of the new mayor, as their daughters Ivanka Trump and Georgina Bloomberg appeared in a documentary about children of privilege, lamenting the complexity of their lives.

We are friends, we were before her father was elected and its not going to change after, Ms. Bloomberg wrote in an email in 2018, before her father made his presidential ambitions official. Im not a fan of him or his politics, but you dont stop being friends with someone because of the actions of a family member.

When Mr. Bloomberg began looking at a way to undo the citys two-term limit so he could run again, a move that was successful but that infuriated a number of New Yorkers and some elected officials, Mr. Trump defended the idea.

Term limits are a terrible idea, an artificial barrier, Mr. Trump said. Why is he being told he cannot run again?

Mr. Bloomberg twice appeared on The Apprentice, an opportunity aides said helped him boost the citys Made in NY tax credit initiative. In one episode, Mr. Bloomberg judged a hot dog competition.

As the No. 1 frank-ophile in the city, Im supposed to see if you can cut the mustard, Mr. Bloomberg told an all-female team on the episode, in 2004. I cant tell whether these are better or worse than the one the men are selling until I have a hot dog with the men. But I can tell you without seeing the men you look better.

In 2011, the Bloomberg administration awarded a contract to the Trump Organization to operate and manage a Bronx golf course that had been a boondoggle for decades. The city had completed almost all of the construction, with growing the grass and building a clubhouse and concession stands left to Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump has described the project as one that he saved, similar to his work on the citys Wollman Rink in the 1980s. In a 2015 blog post, Ms. Trump wrote about how her father had arrived on the site of the golf course and ended 20 years of mismanagement. That description rankled former Bloomberg officials, who called it exaggerated.

During the Bloomberg mayoral years, Mr. Trump became more socially conservative, as Mr. Bloomberg became more socially liberal. Mr. Bloomberg embraced the movement for stricter gun regulation, an effort for which Mr. Trump now tightly aligned with the National Rifle Association once praised him for even though he didnt support the policy. He said the mayor was putting his money where his mouth is.

Mr. Trump would often say that the Bloomberg mayoralty had been good for me, recalled Sam Nunberg, a former aide to Mr. Trump.

But Mr. Trump has given conflicting assessments of Mr. Bloombergs prospects as a presidential contender. When Mr. Bloomberg was mentioned as a possible presidential candidate shortly after he left office at the end of 2013, Mr. Trumps advisers told him he would never gain traction.

Hes a political basket case you dont know if hes a Republican, you dont know if hes a Democrat, hes all over the place, Mr. Nunberg said at that time.

But in that same year Mr. Trump praised Mr. Bloomberg, noting he had done a very good job as mayor and mused in a Fox News interview that Mr. Bloomberg was probably interested in higher office. He is going to be out there very strongly in some form, Mr. Trump said.

By early 2016, Mr. Bloomberg had ruled out a campaign of his own as an independent, in part because he said he feared helping elect Mr. Trump, whose candidacy he had described with growing alarm as he watched from the sidelines.

When he endorsed Hillary Clinton, her aides thought his backing would resonate with independent and persuadable Republican voters, and asked him to make that pitch at the Democratic National Convention.

Bloomberg was someone who had a long history with Trump, who could speak as a fellow billionaire and fellow New Yorker to what and who the real Donald Trump was, said Jim Margolis, a former aide to Ms. Clinton who helped organize the convention.

That speech resonated with Mr. Trump as well.

Little Michael Bloomberg, who never had the guts to run for president, knows nothing about me, Mr. Trump said on Twitter soon after the speech. His last term as Mayor was a disaster!

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Bloomberg Is Taunting Trump, and Trump Is Taking the Bait - The New York Times

President Donald Trumps lawyers, who launched his defense at his impeachment trial in the Senate Saturday morning, have claimed that they will respond substantively to Democrats methodical case for why the president should be removed from office. But shortly before the Senate convened for the first day of the White House defense, the president teed up the proceedings with a tweet strong on name calling and short on evidence.

His targets include two lawmakers, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who have no role in the impeachment trial. Trump also postedtweets quoting Fox Business News host Lou Dobbs praising him.

Trumps defenders thus far have not disputed the facts of the case against him. Senate Republicans have complained about comments by Democratic impeachment managers and launched attacks on President Obamas foreign policy and other topics that are at best tangental. Trumps lawyers on Saturday have said they will focus on Vice President Joe Bidens actions related to Ukraine in 2016, and that the president did nothing wrong. White House counsel Pat Cipollone promised in his opening remarks that Trumps team will focus on evidence that the House impeachment managers did not include. But their boss appears to have another strategy.

Continued here:
Donald Trump Tweets His Defense by Attacking AOC - Mother Jones

President Donald Trump called for the firing of New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman in a tweet on Sunday in the latest escalation of the war of words between the two.

"Paul Krugman is a lightweight thinker who doesn't have a clue," the president tweeted Sunday morning. "Caused huge economic damage to his follower's pocketbooks. He, and others, should be fired by @nytimes!"

The tweet included a video shared by libertarian radio host Larry Elder that showed economist Thomas Sowell talking about the economy under the Trump administration, which specifically targeted Krugman's past predictions.

"The economy is booming in a way that no one had predicted," Sowell said in the clip. "People like Paul Krugman were saying that when Trump gets in, the economy is going to tank. No, the economy hit new highs."

The video clip of Sowell seems to be taken from a November 2018 interview posted by the Hoover Institute, a public policy think tank at Standford University, where Sowell is a fellow.

Krugman responded to Trump on Twitter later Sunday.

"I usually ignore Twitter trolls, but it's kind of amazing how much rent-free space I seem to occupy in Trump's head," Krugman tweeted after the president called for him to be fired. "Shouldn't he be focused on threatening Adam Schiff?"

The president often directs his ire toward Schiff, a Democrat from California and the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, over his handling of Trump's impeachment.

Besides the 2018 video shared by Elder, there wasn't a clear indication of what, exactly, set Trump off Sunday, though Krugman's most recent January 23 column published by The New York Times criticizes Trump for "abusing his tariff power."

As Markets Insider reported, Sunday wasn't the first time the president had attacked Krugman, the president also lashed out at the New York Times columnist in a tweet January 20.

"If you listened to the flawed advice of @paulkrugman at the @nytimes, a newspaper that was going broke until I came along, you would have entirely missed the RECORD BREAKING Stock Market (and other) numbers produced since Election Day, 2016," Trump tweeted last week. "Sorry, those are the FACTS....."

Krugman, a longtime critic of the 45th president, predicted that his election in 2016 would lead to global economic fallout, believing that Trump would tighten the Federal Reserve. The Nobel Prize winner has regularly authored unfavorable columns for The New York Times throughout the Trump presidency and claimed that any economic growth that has occurred under him was a result of the policies of the previous administration.

The president has fired back against Krugman also on Twitter at several points over his administration, including in April and November last year.

While their feud has lasted years, Markets Insider noted that Krugman's prediction of economic disaster under Trump has not so far not been realized.

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Trump calls for New York Times to fire economist Paul Krugman in the latest escalation of their longtime feud - Business Insider