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Ben DreyfussAug. 8, 2017 4:32 PM

August 8, 2017:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned North Korea against escalating nuclear tensions, promising the United States would unleash unprecedented fire and fury if the country did not stop threatening to retaliate against the United Nations newest sanctions.

North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States, Trump told reporters from his Bedminster, New Jersey golf course, where he is vacationing for the next two weeks. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. They will be met with fire, fury, and frankly power the likes of which the world has never seen.

December 26, 2016:

Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, points out that in peacetime, any belligerent Trump Tweet about nuclear weapons might not appear as alarming, simply because confirmation bias might lead key actors not to interpret it in its most frightening light at that moment. Amid rising international tensions, though, that confirmation bias might work in the other direction, he says.

Imagine were in a crisisif he recklessly Tweets, people could read these things in the worst possible light, Lewis tells me. The North Koreans have a plan to use nuclear weapons very early in a conflict. Theyre not going to wait around. If they think we are going, theyregoing to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.

As a potential example, Lewis points out that earlier this year, Trump said he would handle the North Korean nuclear threat by getting China to make North Korean leader Kim Jong Un disappear. Lewis notes that imprecise language in an errant, bellicose Trump Tweet particularly amid rising tensions could conceivably amount to an accidental assassination threat.

Imagine if the North Koreans are looking for any signs that were about to attack as their signal that they have to go, says Lewis, adding that if Trump says the wrong thing and gives the impression that were about to act, the North Koreans might decide not to wait around to find out if thats true or not, and might hit targets throughout South Korea and Japan where U.S. military forces are stationed.

In this telling, Lewis notes, its possible to envision some kind of ambiguous Tweet such as, weve gotta get rid of this guy unleashing untold consequences. Alternatively, Lewis argues, its possible to envision a rash Trump Tweet locking the U.S. into an untenable position by closing off the presidents ability to back down or compromise,rather than preserving maneuvering room, making peaceful resolution harder.

Trumps fire and fury comments about North Korea today werent in tweet form, but aside from that, Jeffrey Lewis really called this one accurately. Chilling.

On the other hand, Donald Trump called it accurately 4 YEARS AGO.

Ben Dreyfuss is Mother Jones' senior editor for growth and engagement. He's done some other stuff, too. You can email him at bdreyfuss@motherjones.com. But you don't have to. But you can. But you really don't have to.

Mother Jones is a nonprofit, and stories like this are made possible by readers like you. Donate or subscribe to help fund independent journalism.

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This WaPo Article From December Eerily Predicted Donald Trump's Fire & Fury Threat To North Korea - Mother Jones

Here's the tweet: "The Fake News refuses to report the success of the first 6 months: S.C., surging economy & jobs, border & military security,ISIS & MS-13 etc." Let's set aside for a moment the specious claim that the media has not reported on these issues. It has. (Here are but one post each on the Supreme Court, the economy and jobs, border and military security and ISIS and MS-13.)

But given his allegation, I thought it made sense to run through each of his claims of success -- providing context and some sense of how much (or little) he's actually accomplished. Below I break down each claim in the order Trump touted them.

This is an unmitigated success for Trump. His nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court was widely touted by conservatives. And, although Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had to change the Senate rules to get Gorsuch confirmed -- after Harry Reid had done the same thing for lower court justices a few years back -- Gorsuch is currently sitting on the Court. And at 49, he will likely be there for a long time. (Trump's success here also got an assist from McConnell for refusing to hold a hearing for Barack Obama's nominee to fill that seat.)

RULING: Trump success.

Let's take the second part first, since it's easier to quantify.

For context, here's the annual GDP growth rate for the last 5 years, starting with 2016: 1.5%, 2.9%, 2.6%, 1.7%, 2.2%. The average GDP in the first two quarters of 2017 is 1.9%. If that's where it ends up, 2017 will be right in the middle of GDP growth rates over the past six years. (There is, of course, the possibility GDP growth will speed or slow considerably in the coming months.) Trump's more ambitious goal and promise is to get the country to 4% annual growth rate.

So, to claim the economy and jobs are "surging" is somewhat misleading, although there's no question the stock market is booming -- and has been since Trump took office.

RULING: Partial Trump success

RULING: Trump success on border security; unclear on military

RULING: Trump is broadly right about success against ISIS; too soon to know about MS-13

Read more here:
Donald Trump's 'successes' after 6 months, rated - CNN

He followed it up in rapid succession with two more tweets on Blumenthal: "Never in U.S. history has anyone lied or defrauded voters like Senator Richard Blumenthal. He told stories about his Vietnam battles and.......conquests, how brave he was, and it was all a lie. He cried like a baby and begged for forgiveness like a child. Now he judges collusion?"

TV, of course. And, specifically, CNN -- which Trump likes to say he never watches.

Blumenthal had appeared on CNN's "New Day" right around 7:45 a.m. And, in the interview, he blasted Trump -- and defended special counsel Robert Mueller's ongoing investigation into Russian meddling into the 2016 election.

"There is no minimizing or underestimating that attack by the Russians," said Blumenthal. "It was purposeful and relentless, and it involved propaganda and hacking into our voting machines or at least an attempt to do it and potential collusion by the Trump campaign and then obstruction of justice. That investigation must be pursued."

This morning's timeline is proof positive of something we have long known: The idea that Trump doesn't watch TV -- and CNN in particular -- is ridiculous.

TRUMP: OK. The one thing I've learned to do that I never thought I had the ability to do. I don't watch CNN anymore.

AP: You just said you did.

TRUMP: No. No, I, if I'm passing it, what did I just say (inaudible)?

AP: You just said

TRUMP: Where? Where?

AP: Two minutes ago.

TRUMP: No, they treat me so badly. No, I just said that. No, I, what'd I say, I stopped watching them. But I don't watch CNN anymore. I don't watch MSNBC. I don't watch it. Now I heard yesterday that MSNBC, you know, they tell me what's going on.

Ahem.

If you did think that, you don't know Donald Trump.

During an interview with the Washington Post in August 2016, Trump interrupted the interview no fewer than five(!) times to watch or point out something on the TV that was on throughout.

"But the thing he wants to show is on the opposite wall, above the fireplace, a new 60-plus-inch flat-screen television that he has cued up with clips from the day's Senate hearing on Russia. Since at least as far back as Richard Nixon, Presidents have kept televisions in this room, usually small ones, no larger than a bread box, tucked away on a sideboard shelf. That's not the Trump way."

There has never been a president more obsessed with cable TV news -- and the tone and tenor of the coverage of his White House -- than this one. And it's not even close. Trump watches the shows closely, always looking for supporters and detractors -- fingers at the ready to call out hypocrites with a few taps on his phone.

This is who he has been his whole life. It's who he is now. And it's who he will be even after he leaves the White House. Tigers don't change their stripes. And Donald Trump watches CNN.

Read more:
Donald Trump says he doesn't watch CNN. Except ... - CNN

President Donald Trump, currently on a 17-day vacation at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, spent his Monday morning posting a tirade against his usual target, the 24/7 fake news, criticizing the failing New York Times.

Trump also claimed his low approval ratings were fabricated, pointing to crowd sizes at his recent rallies.

But following the tirade, he made sure to note that he was working hard from New Jersey.

On Saturday, he similarly insisted that this is not a vacation meetings and calls!

On Sunday night, Trump did call the president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, regarding North Koreas latest missile tests.

The presidents Monday morning tweet tirade further suggested speculation that his new chief of staff,John Kelly, would helprein in Trumpandhis tweeting habitswas simply wishful thinking.

Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that Kelly has been advising Trump on tweets that might cause an international uproar or lead to unwelcome distractions, concluding that Trumps tweets have been more buttoned down in recent days.

But it also noted that it may prove difficult for Kelly to prevail on Trump to bottle up his tweets at those who defy or criticize him or to refrain from expressing his outrage at the expanding investigations into possible ties between Russia and the Trump campaign, a subject thats given rise to some of his most explosive statements.

Trumps latest ire toward the Times followed a story published Monday detailing Trumps pervasive pattern of lying and his sheer magnitude of falsehoods and exaggerations.

Over the weekend, the paper also reported that Vice President Mike Pence is among several Republicans weighing a shadow campaign in 2020, in case Trump does not seek re-election.

Pence on Sunday responded in an unusually defensive statement pushing back on the story, calling it fake news and affirming that he was honored to be working side-by-side with a president who is making America great again.

Read the original post:
Donald Trump Insists He's 'Working Hard' After Tweet Tirade About '24/7 Fake News' - HuffPost

By Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images.

Peter Thiels support for Donald Trump did not come cheap. While Thiels $1.25 million donation to the Trump campaign could have been a rounding error on the Silicon Valley billionaires bank statement, his political advocacy cost him untold social capital in the overwhelmingly liberal Bay Area. Yet even as he became a pariah in some corners of San Francisco, Thiel was fervent in the defense of his convictions. No matter what happens in this election, what Trump represents isnt crazy and its not going away, Thiel declared in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. just before the election. He points toward a new Republican Party beyond the dogmas of Reaganism. He points even beyond the remaking of one party to a new American politics that overcomes denial, rejects bubble thinking, and reckons with reality.

Thiels incredible gamble seemed to pay off, for a time. During the transition period, Thiel was a top adviser to the president-elect, playing a crucial role in several staffing decisions and flanking Trump, opposite Mike Pence, during the administrations tech summit at Trump Tower in December. Thiel continued to serve as a kingmaker throughout the first month of Trumps presidency and was said to be consolidating his power within the West Wing. Back in San Francisco, Thiels employees reportedly began referring to their boss as the shadow president.

More recently, however, Thiel appears to have soured on his riskiest, most controversial investment. BuzzFeed News reports that while Thiel remains publicly supportive of the president, he has repeatedly criticized Trump in private, describing the White House as incompetent. Citing three sources who recounted some half-a-dozen private conversations, BuzzFeeds Ryan Mac writes that Thiel sees Trump as a one-term president and doesnt think he would win re-election in 2020. According to two anonymous sources, Thiel expressed as early as January that there is a 50 percent chance this whole thing ends in disaster. An unnamed guest who attended an event with Thiel in May said the venture capitalist appeared annoyed with the first few months of Trumps presidential tenure.

Some of the animus may be more personal than political. One person who recently spent time with Thiel told the Hive that the iconoclastic billionaire does not enjoy spending time with the president. While Trump has said he deeply loves Peter Thiel, Thiel has avoided the Trump circus in the West Wing. An avowed libertarian, Thiel was initially excited by Trumps unorthodox style and willingness to upend the establishment. But the disruption that Trump has brought to Washington doesnt appear to be the kind that Thiel was betting on.

Thiel, whose book Zero to One was a must-read for Trump campaign staffers last year, did not deny BuzzFeeds reporting. The night he won the election, I said President Trump would face an awesomely difficult task, Thiel said via a spokesperson. Today its clear that resistance to change in Washington, D.C. has been even fiercer than I anticipated. We still need change. I support President Trump in his ongoing fight to achieve it. A spokesperson for Thiel also responded to allegations that Thiel doesn't enjoy spending time with Trump. Whoever says that is wrong, he told The Hive.

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Peter Thiel Sours on Donald Trump - Vanity Fair