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WHEN DONALD TRUMP left office in January 2021 his political career seemed over. It was not just Democrats who thought so. We are very, very close to being able to ignore Trump most nights, wrote Tucker Carlson privately when he was still the host of Fox Newss most popular evening show. I truly cant wait. Mr Carlson did not get his wish. Our statistical forecast, which we launch this week, gives Mr Trump a two-in-three chance of winning in November. This is the same model, plus some refinements, that made Joe Biden a strong favourite to become president in 2020. Tested on election data from previous elections (with no knowledge of the outcome), the model gave Barack Obama about the same chance of winning in 2012 at this point in the race as it gives Mr Trump now. Like most pundits, it thought Hillary Clinton likelier to win in 2016a reminder that models, though they offer a rigorous way to think about the world, are not crystal balls.

Original post:
A second Trump term: from unthinkable to probable - The Economist

Donald Trump has responded to a video showing President Joe Biden in an awkward forehead-touching moment with Pope Francis at a summit in Italy.

The ex-president alleged that Biden "freaked out" the pontiff by touching foreheads during their meet-and-greet session.

Donald Trump recently criticized Joe Biden Biden, urging him to take a cognitive test, and has pledged to end Biden's policies concerning cryptocurrency.

Trump came after Biden again, following the latter's viral video of him and Pope Francis at the Group of Seven Summit in Italy.

In the clip, Biden can be seen bowing to greet the pope, who was being driven in a wheelchair for a meet-and-greet session with world leaders.

The duo also had a short conversation and were seen smiling widely throughout the time it lasted. At one point, their foreheads briefly touched, though it is unclear if this was intentional.

Trump seemed to find the gesture quite out of place and suggested that POTUS made the pope very uncomfortable by being that close to him.

"Look at the PopeHe's freaking out! This can't be normal, can it?" Trump exclaimed in a post on his Truth Social platform, adding a picture of Biden and the Pope when their foreheads touched briefly.

The remark from Trump is the latest in a line of sharp criticisms between the billionaire mogul and Biden in an effort to undermine each other's campaigns.

He had previously criticized Biden's mental acuity at the Turning Point Action convention in Detroit on Saturday night.

While giving a speech during the campaign event, the billionaire mogul mockingly urged his successor to take a cognitive test designed to detect early signs of memory loss and other mild cognitive impairments.

"He doesn't even know what the word 'inflation' means," Trump said, per Newsweek, taking a swipe at Biden. "I think he should take a cognitive test like I did."

Trump took the test back in 2018 and was reportedly tasked with remembering a list of spoken words, listening to a list of random numbers and repeating them backward, and many more verbal tasks.

At the same moment that Trump asked Biden to take a cognitive test, he forgot the name of the doctor who gave him his, referring to him as Ronny Johnson instead of Ronny Jackson.

"Doc Ronny Johnson. Does everyone know Ronny Johnson, congressman from Texas? He was the White House doctor, and he said I was the healthiest president, he feels, in history, so I liked him very much indeed immediately," Trump said.

Unsurprisingly, his gaffe was quickly noted by critics, who slammed him for targeting Biden's mental acuity while he himself couldn't remember the doctor's name.

Biden-Harris HQ posted on X, "Trump: I think Biden should take a cognitive test. My doctor Ronny Johnson. Ronny Johnson, do you know him? (His name is Ronny Jackson)."

A social media user wrote, "Idiot is calling for Biden to take a cognitive test as he gets the name of his doctor wrong. You just can't make up this sh-t."

Last week, Trump and Biden's separate press conferences almost clashed as TV stations scrambled to make a decision on which one they would air.

Biden was in Italy for the G7 summit and was about to go live with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky, just about the same time Trump was supposed to give a speech after meeting with GOP leaders.

The brewing clash in schedule made several stations adopt a split screen for both events, waiting on which one would go live first.

When Trump concluded his meeting, he addressed the crowd for less than five minutes but declined to answer questions from the media.

Taking note of what had happened, Biden's campaign team took to social media to mock Trump for his short "press conference."

The team wrote, "A feeble Trump ends his 'press conference' after less than 5 minutes and refuses to answer a single question."

After initially taking a negative stance on crypto during his presidency, Trump has reversed his position in recent months.

Late last month, he criticized Biden for his harsh stance on crypto, claiming that POTUS "wants it to die a slow and painful death" and that such a situation would never happen if he were the president.

More recently, he doubled down on his remark during a special address on his birthday, promising to end Biden's "war on crypto" if elected.

The former president said, "We will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of Bitcoin will be made in America; we're going to keep it right here, and a lot of it is going to be done right here in Florida."

Trump has also introduced crypto as a means of receiving campaign funds, allowing MAGA supporters to use cryptos associated with the Coinbase platform.

Read more from the original source:
Donald Trump Trolls Joe Biden Over Head-Touching Moment With Pope Francis: 'This Can't Be Normal' - Yahoo! Voices

Former President Donald J. Trump, courting Black voters at a church on the west side of Detroit on Saturday, sought to harness animus toward migrants crossing the border, sanitized his track record on race and sold himself as the best president for Black Americans since Abraham Lincoln.

As he spoke to roughly 200 people, Mr. Trump largely ignored his history of racist statements and his decades of calls for tougher policing that have fueled his three presidential campaigns.

Instead, during short remarks before a panel with Black residents of Detroit at the citys 180 Church, Mr. Trump tried to cast Mr. Biden as anti-Black, focusing intently on the presidents role in shepherding the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, a sweeping bill that criminal justice experts have said laid the groundwork for mass incarceration that disproportionately hurt Americas Black communities.

Mr. Trump, at one point, seemed determined to ensure that Mr. Bidens role in the crime bill would be the events main takeaway. He falsely accused Mr. Biden of coining the term super predators and then insisted that those in the audience should not forget Mr. Bidens role, as a U.S. senator, in championing the bill and helping pass it.

He was the one with the super predators, Mr. Trump said of Mr. Biden. So just please remember that if youre going to vote Democrat because you shouldnt vote Democrat.

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Originally posted here:
Trump, in Pitch to Black Voters in Detroit, Casts Biden as Anti-Black - The New York Times

JOE BIDENS job-approval rating stands at 39%, putting him roughly in a tie for lowest of any president at this point in his term in the history of American polling. In all six states that could prove decisive in November he trails by between one and six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates margins have underperformed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr Biden would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.

These numbers suggest that the race is hardly a toss-up. True, the five months before the vote give Mr Biden time to make up ground, and the polls may underestimate his true support. But it is also possible that the candidate to benefit from any polling error could be Donald Trump.

Continued here:
Five months out, Donald Trump has a clear lead - The Economist

Large numbers of migrant apprehensions at the southern border have vaulted immigration and border security onto the list of top concerns for voters.

Public polling shows support for former President Donald J. Trumps hard-line approach, and President Biden, who made overturning Mr. Trumps immigration agenda part of his platform in 2020, has recently reversed course and issued a more restrictive border policy.

But some of Mr. Trumps most-repeated statements are inaccurate, in warning about the level of illegal immigration, characterizing unauthorized migrants as criminals taking advantage of government handouts and touting the effectiveness of his own policies. Mr. Biden, too, has occasionally overstated his earlier proposals on border security.

Here is a fact check.

What Was Said

We had the strongest border ever. I built 571 miles of wall. Were going to add another 200 in three weeks. It was all made, all fabricated. They sold it for five cents on the dollar. The wall was all fabricated. I built much more wall than I said I was going to build. in a May radio interview

False. During Mr. Trumps 2016 campaign, he promised to build a wall spanning at least 1,000 miles along the southern border and have Mexico pay for it. That did not happen. Overall, the Trump administration constructed 458 miles of border barriers most of which reinforced or replaced existing structures. Officials put up new primary barriers where none previously existed along only 47 miles.

Contracts were awarded for a total of 631 miles of barriers through January 2021, according to a Government Accountability Office report. When Mr. Biden took office and halted all construction, the contracted projects were in various states of completion not all made as officials had run into difficulties with real estate availability, the report said. Some were expected to wrap up by September 2021 and others by September 2022.

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The rest is here:
Fact Check: Trumps and Bidens Claims on Immigration and Border Security - The New York Times