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President Donald Trump likes to brag about how the stock market is doing.

After reports about problems at the White House in late July, Trump tweeted that things were going great, citing the "Highest Stock Market EVER" and the "best economic numbers in years."

Trump has a point about Wall Streetthe Dow Jones rose to a record-breaking 22,000 last week, the latest in a series of records the market has seen this year. But economists say there's more to the state of the stock market than just who is president.

Some say Trump's own presidency has been a good test case of exactly how muchor how littlethe president's actions matter.

There are certain trends that are built in, and it may be that economists underestimated the strength of these trends, said Mark Gertler, a professor of Economics at New York University. There probably was a little overreaction to the uncertainty that would be created by the election.

Here are five factors behind the recent stock market highs.

For Gertler, the lions share of positive stock market outcomes are the result of ongoing economic trends rooted in recovery from the recession. As the unemployment rate hits a sixteen-year low of 4.3% and overseas markets continue to strengthen, the stock market has been granted some immunity to the slow rate of fiscal change coming out of Washington.

Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors, points to especially robust earnings in the last six monthsthe highest earnings per share growth the nation has seen since 2011as evidence. The market can afford to be patient when earnings are growing at that level, he said. And all of those earnings have come really without the help of fiscal policy at all.

Although Trump has yet to deliver on economic promises like tax cuts , the market is in a strong position. Anything that Trump could do would be icing on the cake, but right now the cake already tastes pretty good, said Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at the research firm CFRA.

Some economists say the fact that one party controls the White House and both branches of Congress has also helped boost the stock market, since many investors believe it will lead to less gridlock.

The market woke up on the day after election day pleasantly excited about an all-Republican government, said Chiavarone. The election seemed to signal the arrival of a unified government that could make progress after years and years of stalemate.

Perceived political unity, or its lack, can have a deceptive impact on the market. Marina Azzimonti is an economics professor at Stony Brook University who helped design a Partisan Conflict Index measuring the impacts of political disunity on the economy. Typically, a higher level of political discord correlates with a chill on investing.

Right now, the strength of the stock market in the face of growing political division in the country contradicts that paradigm . And while the failure of the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act has led to some concerns about the effectiveness of Congress right now, the market has not yet reacted in a strong way.

Market-positive hallmarks of the Trump agenda, like infrastructure investment, deregulation, and tax cuts, could be strengthening the marketeven if they arent actually enacted for some time.

Investors are bolstered by the fact that measures like tax cuts are on the table. Theres a belief that something will get done on that agenda, says Chiavarone.

For now, that belief is enoughbut that could change if reform takes too long. Stovall says the last six months have been a process of reducing expectations as the market-positive legislation that boosted the economy in the spring has not come to pass.

Wall Street has some concerns about elements of President Trump's agenda, such as proposals for reducing legal immigration and raising tariffs, which Azzimonti says economists tend to agree are not good things.

But the market has been slow to respond, in part because investors recognize that even brashly promised reforms face an uphill battle in Congress.

Investors job is not only to react ... but also to understand the difference between news and noise, said Chiavarone. For example, a critical tweet directed at a company might have inspired some panic early in Trumps presidency. But now, investors recognize there may not be any policy teeth to those outbursts. Companies with strong fundamentals are unlikely to be financially perturbed by attacks from the President, as long as those attacks continue to be in word only.

And even sweeping policy proposals that could have significant economic impact, like proposals to dramatically reduce legal immigration , have little sway as long as investors know that legislation is unlikely to get through a skeptical Congress any time soon.From a market perspective, its kind of a non-starter, said Chiavarone. It just doesnt matter because its not likely to happen.

Other economists point out that the market tends to react positively after an election.

What people forget is that its not necessarily about this individual and his actions per se, its about the cycle of the elections and the midterms, said Jeff Hirsch, who edits the Stock Traders Almanac. That group has consistently found that a bump to the market in an election year is common.

That also means that we could see some upset after midterms next year. Any impact on the market from the presidential cycle will come to terms with the 2018 midterm elections, said Hirsch.

Until then, Stovall says the higher-than-average number of market records this year are a good indicator that the year will finish strong. But a number of uncertainties loom for the market. With earnings over for the quarter, Chiavarone warns that continued holdups to tax changes, a battle over border wall funding, or intensification of the probe into Russian interference with the election could have a temporary dampening effect. Depending on who replaces Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve, investors could be looking at a significantly different situation.

And it remains to be seen how impactful the President and his policies may be on this economy.

The effects are going to be seen down the road, said Azzimonti. Its a little bit too early to attribute any good or bad thing to this administration.

See the rest here:
President Trump Keeps Taking Credit for the Stock Market. Here's What's Really Driving It - Fortune

Ben DreyfussAug. 8, 2017 4:32 PM

August 8, 2017:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned North Korea against escalating nuclear tensions, promising the United States would unleash unprecedented fire and fury if the country did not stop threatening to retaliate against the United Nations newest sanctions.

North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States, Trump told reporters from his Bedminster, New Jersey golf course, where he is vacationing for the next two weeks. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. They will be met with fire, fury, and frankly power the likes of which the world has never seen.

December 26, 2016:

Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, points out that in peacetime, any belligerent Trump Tweet about nuclear weapons might not appear as alarming, simply because confirmation bias might lead key actors not to interpret it in its most frightening light at that moment. Amid rising international tensions, though, that confirmation bias might work in the other direction, he says.

Imagine were in a crisisif he recklessly Tweets, people could read these things in the worst possible light, Lewis tells me. The North Koreans have a plan to use nuclear weapons very early in a conflict. Theyre not going to wait around. If they think we are going, theyregoing to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.

As a potential example, Lewis points out that earlier this year, Trump said he would handle the North Korean nuclear threat by getting China to make North Korean leader Kim Jong Un disappear. Lewis notes that imprecise language in an errant, bellicose Trump Tweet particularly amid rising tensions could conceivably amount to an accidental assassination threat.

Imagine if the North Koreans are looking for any signs that were about to attack as their signal that they have to go, says Lewis, adding that if Trump says the wrong thing and gives the impression that were about to act, the North Koreans might decide not to wait around to find out if thats true or not, and might hit targets throughout South Korea and Japan where U.S. military forces are stationed.

In this telling, Lewis notes, its possible to envision some kind of ambiguous Tweet such as, weve gotta get rid of this guy unleashing untold consequences. Alternatively, Lewis argues, its possible to envision a rash Trump Tweet locking the U.S. into an untenable position by closing off the presidents ability to back down or compromise,rather than preserving maneuvering room, making peaceful resolution harder.

Trumps fire and fury comments about North Korea today werent in tweet form, but aside from that, Jeffrey Lewis really called this one accurately. Chilling.

On the other hand, Donald Trump called it accurately 4 YEARS AGO.

Ben Dreyfuss is Mother Jones' senior editor for growth and engagement. He's done some other stuff, too. You can email him at bdreyfuss@motherjones.com. But you don't have to. But you can. But you really don't have to.

Mother Jones is a nonprofit, and stories like this are made possible by readers like you. Donate or subscribe to help fund independent journalism.

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This WaPo Article From December Eerily Predicted Donald Trump's Fire & Fury Threat To North Korea - Mother Jones

But for Dion Cini, a middle-aged former Marine from the Upper West Side, it actually requires very little.

Nearly every day, Cini climbs into an 18-foot scull rowing boat and paddles the Hudson River along the Manhattan shoreline. Before shoving off, Cini hoists a prominent flag that reads "Trump 2020."

And then he waits for the reactions to pour in.

"Sometimes you hear 'I hope you get hit by a boat! I hope you drown!" he said. "From the top of their lungs as loud as they can. I get it all the time."

It's a simple act of defiance for a supporter of President Donald Trump who lives on an island that voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton. In 2016, nearly 87% of Manhattan voters supported Clinton, second only to neighboring Bronx County, where Clinton support crept closer to 90%. (Cini makes a point to row around both.)

"There's so much fear of Trump in New York," Cini said.

He started hoisting the flag from this boat this spring after seeing a swell of protests against Trump in the city. He previously enjoyed walking the flag through the streets of Manhattan, which attracted throngs of angry people who told him to leave.

Why does he do it?

"Because I can," he said.

On a recent afternoon, Cini, wearing a mesh shirt and no life jacket, pushed off into the river and began paddling through choppy water toward lower Manhattan. In his months of rowing with the Trump flag, he finds that support for his effort increases as he rows south, home to the city's financial district and areas teeming with tourists who live elsewhere.

Cini rowed close to shore, giving thumbs up to people standing on the docks and walking paths that line the river. Some reciprocated, others gave a thumbs down, and plenty extended a different finger.

"Donald Trump is a piece of sh**!" a young man shouted from shore.

"F*** Trump!" another man hollered from a dock near a riverside restaurant.

Cini doesn't ignore their tauntshe provokes them further. He engages and argues back.

As he paddled toward Battery Park, with the Statue of Liberty behind him, crowds grew friendlier. A ship of tourists cheered him on, and the "thumbs up" signs came more frequently.

Cini has no plans to stop. The responses, he says, drive him.

"I'm out of goals," he says. "I have nowhere else to go in the world. I don't really want to climb Mt. Everest. I almost see this as climbing Mt. Everest. It's one of the biggest challenges I've ever done in my life -- knowing how many people do not like me in a small space and continue to survive."

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This Trump supporter drives New Yorkers nuts - CNN

Here's the tweet: "The Fake News refuses to report the success of the first 6 months: S.C., surging economy & jobs, border & military security,ISIS & MS-13 etc." Let's set aside for a moment the specious claim that the media has not reported on these issues. It has. (Here are but one post each on the Supreme Court, the economy and jobs, border and military security and ISIS and MS-13.)

But given his allegation, I thought it made sense to run through each of his claims of success -- providing context and some sense of how much (or little) he's actually accomplished. Below I break down each claim in the order Trump touted them.

This is an unmitigated success for Trump. His nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court was widely touted by conservatives. And, although Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had to change the Senate rules to get Gorsuch confirmed -- after Harry Reid had done the same thing for lower court justices a few years back -- Gorsuch is currently sitting on the Court. And at 49, he will likely be there for a long time. (Trump's success here also got an assist from McConnell for refusing to hold a hearing for Barack Obama's nominee to fill that seat.)

RULING: Trump success.

Let's take the second part first, since it's easier to quantify.

For context, here's the annual GDP growth rate for the last 5 years, starting with 2016: 1.5%, 2.9%, 2.6%, 1.7%, 2.2%. The average GDP in the first two quarters of 2017 is 1.9%. If that's where it ends up, 2017 will be right in the middle of GDP growth rates over the past six years. (There is, of course, the possibility GDP growth will speed or slow considerably in the coming months.) Trump's more ambitious goal and promise is to get the country to 4% annual growth rate.

So, to claim the economy and jobs are "surging" is somewhat misleading, although there's no question the stock market is booming -- and has been since Trump took office.

RULING: Partial Trump success

RULING: Trump success on border security; unclear on military

RULING: Trump is broadly right about success against ISIS; too soon to know about MS-13

Read more here:
Donald Trump's 'successes' after 6 months, rated - CNN

President Donald Trump, currently on a 17-day vacation at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, spent his Monday morning posting a tirade against his usual target, the 24/7 fake news, criticizing the failing New York Times.

Trump also claimed his low approval ratings were fabricated, pointing to crowd sizes at his recent rallies.

But following the tirade, he made sure to note that he was working hard from New Jersey.

On Saturday, he similarly insisted that this is not a vacation meetings and calls!

On Sunday night, Trump did call the president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, regarding North Koreas latest missile tests.

The presidents Monday morning tweet tirade further suggested speculation that his new chief of staff,John Kelly, would helprein in Trumpandhis tweeting habitswas simply wishful thinking.

Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that Kelly has been advising Trump on tweets that might cause an international uproar or lead to unwelcome distractions, concluding that Trumps tweets have been more buttoned down in recent days.

But it also noted that it may prove difficult for Kelly to prevail on Trump to bottle up his tweets at those who defy or criticize him or to refrain from expressing his outrage at the expanding investigations into possible ties between Russia and the Trump campaign, a subject thats given rise to some of his most explosive statements.

Trumps latest ire toward the Times followed a story published Monday detailing Trumps pervasive pattern of lying and his sheer magnitude of falsehoods and exaggerations.

Over the weekend, the paper also reported that Vice President Mike Pence is among several Republicans weighing a shadow campaign in 2020, in case Trump does not seek re-election.

Pence on Sunday responded in an unusually defensive statement pushing back on the story, calling it fake news and affirming that he was honored to be working side-by-side with a president who is making America great again.

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Donald Trump Insists He's 'Working Hard' After Tweet Tirade About '24/7 Fake News' - HuffPost