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On Dec. 4 last year, less than a month after Donald Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton, Austria held a revote in its presidential election, which pitted Alexander Van der Bellen, a liberal who had the backing of the Green Party, against Norbert Hofer of the right-wing Freedom Party. In May 2016, Van der Bellen had defeated Hofer by just more than 30,000 votes receiving 50.3 percent of the vote to Hofers 49.7 percent but the results had been annulled and a new election had been declared. Hofer had to like his chances: Polls showed a close race, but with him ever so slightly ahead in the polling average. Hofer cited Trump as an inspiration and said that he, like Trump, could overcome headwinds from the political establishment.

So what happened? Van der Bellen won by nearly 8 percentage points. Not only did Hofer receive a smaller share of the vote than in May, but he also had fewer votes despite a higher turnout. Something had caused Austrians to change their minds and decide that Hofers brand of populism wasnt such a good idea after all.

Left: Far-right candidate Norbert Hofer. Right: Independent presidential candidate Alexander van der Bellen.

Georg Hochmuth/AFP/Getty Images; Alex Domanski/Getty Images

The result didnt get that much attention in the news outlets I follow, perhaps because it went against the emerging narrative that right-wing populism was on the upswing. But the May and December elections in Austria made for an interesting controlled experiment. The same two candidates were on the ballot, but in the intervening period Trump had won the American election and the United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union. If the populist tide were rising, Hofer should have been able to overcome his tiny deficit with Van der Bellen and win. Instead, he backslid. It struck me as a potential sign that Trumps election could represent the crest of the populist movement, rather than the beginning of a nationalist wave:

It was also just one data point, and so it had to be interpreted with caution. But the pattern has been repeated so far in every major European election since Trumps victory. In the Netherlands, France and the U.K., right-wing parties faded down the stretch run of their campaigns and then further underperformed their polls on election day. (The latest example came on Sunday in the French legislative elections, when Marine Le Pens National Front received only 13 percent of the vote and one to five seats in the French National Assembly.) The right-wing Alternative for Germany has also faded in polls of the German federal election, which will be contested in September.

The beneficiaries of the right-wing decline have variously been politicians on the left (such as Austrias Van der Bellen), the center-left (such as Frances Emmanuel Macron) and the center-right (such as Germanys Angela Merkel, whose Christian Democratic Union has rebounded in polls). But theres been another pattern in who gains or loses support: The warmer a candidates relationship with Trump, the worse he or she has tended to do.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron have both been the beneficiaries of the right-wing decline.

Gabriel Rossi/LatinContent/Getty Images; Lionel Bonaventure/AFP/Getty Images

Merkel, for instance, has often been criticized by Trump and has often criticized him back. Her popularity has increased, and her advisers have half-jokingly credited the Trump factor for the sharp rebound in her approval ratings over the past year.

By contrast, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has a warmer relationship with Trump. She was the first foreign leader to visit Trump in January after his inauguration, when she congratulated him on his stunning electoral victory. But she was criticized for not pushing back on Trump as much as her European colleagues or her rivals from other parties after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate accords on June 1 and then instigated a fight with the mayor of London after the terrorist attack in London two days later. Her Conservatives suffered a humiliating result, blowing a 17 percentage point polling lead and losing their majority in Parliament; its now not clear how much longer shell continue as prime minister. Trump was not Mays only problem, but he certainly didnt help.

Lets take a slightly more formal tour of the evidence from these countries:

Geert Wilders.

Carl Court/Getty Images

The Netherlands Geert Wilders, of the nationalist Party for Freedom (in Dutch, Partij voor de Vrijheid or PVV), hailed Trumps victory and predicted that it would presage a populist uprising in Europe. And PVV initially rose in the polls after the U.S. election, climbing to a peak of about 22 percent of the vote in mid-December potentially enough to make it the largest party in the Dutch parliament. But it faded over the course of the election, falling below 15 percent in late polls and then finishing with just 13 percent of the vote on election day on March 15. Those results were broadly in line with the 2010 and 2012 elections, when Wilders party had received between 10 and 15 percent of the vote. The center-right, pro-Europe VVD remains the largest party in the Netherlands.

Marine Le Pen.

Chesnot/Getty Images

Reciprocating praise that Le Pen had offered to Trump, Trump expressed support for Le Pen after a terrorist attack in Paris in April and predicted that it would probably help her to win the French presidential election. But over the course of a topsy-turvy race, Le Pens trajectory was downward. Last fall, shed projected to finish with 25 to 30 percent of the vote in the first round of the election, which would probably have been enough for her to finish in pole position for the top-two runoff. Her numbers declined in December and January, however, and then again late in the campaign. She held onto the second position to make the runoff, but just barely, with 21 percent of the vote. Then she was defeated 66-34 percent by Macron in the runoff, a considerably wider landslide than polls predicted.

Le Pens National Front endured another disappointing performance over the weekend in the French legislative elections. Initially polling in the low 20s close to Le Pens share of the vote in the first round of the presidential election the party declined in polls and turned out to receive only 13 percent of the vote, about the same as their 14 percent in 2012. As a result, National Front will have only a few seats in the French Assembly while Macrons En Marche! which ran jointly with another centrist party will have a supermajority.

Theresa May.

Jack Taylor/Getty Image

While the big news in the U.K. was Mays failed gamble in calling a snap parliamentary election, it was also a poor election for the populist, anti-Europe UK Independence Party. Having received 13 percent of the vote in 2015, UKIP initially appeared poised to replicate that tally in 2017 (despite arguably having had its raison dtre removed by the Brexit vote). But it began to decline in polls in the spring, and the slump accelerated after the election was called in April. UKIP turned out to receive less than 2 percent of the vote and lost its only seat in Parliament.

UKIPs collapse in some ways makes Mays performance even harder to excuse. Most of the UKIP vote went to the Conservatives, providing them with a boost in constituencies where UKIP had run well in 2015. But the Conservatives lost votes on net to Labour (although there was movement in both directions), Liberal Democrats and other parties. Its perhaps noteworthy that Conservatives performed especially poorly in London after Trump criticized London Mayor (and Labour Party member) Sadiq Khan, losing wealthy constituencies such as Kensington that had voted Conservative for decades.

Frauke Petry.

Markus Schreiber/AP photo

The German election to fill seats in the Bundestag isnt until September, but theres already been a fair amount of movement in the polls. Merkels CDU/CSU has rebounded to the mid- to high 30s from the low 30s last year. And the left-leaning Social Democratic Party surged after Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, announced in January that hed be their candidate for the chancellorship (although the so-called Schulz effect has since faded slightly). Thus, the election is shaping up as contest between Schulz, who has sometimes been compared to Bernie Sanders and who is loudly and proudly pro-Europe, and Merkel, perhaps the worlds most famous advocate of European integration.

The losers have been various smaller parties, but especially the right-wing Alternative for Germany (in German, Alternative fr Deutschland or AfD) and their leader, Frauke Petry, who have fallen from around 12 to 13 percent in the polls late last year to roughly 8 percent now. Meanwhile, both Schulz and Merkel have sought to wash their hands of Trump. Instead of criticizing Merkel for being too accommodating to Trump, Schulz instead recently denounced Trump for how hed treated Merkel.

So if youre keeping score at home, right-wing nationalist parties have had disappointing results in Austria, the Netherlands, France and the U.K., and they appear poised for one in Germany, although theres a long way to go there. I havent cherry-picked these outcomes; these are the the major elections in Western Europe this year. If you want to get more obscure, the nationalist Finns Party underperformed its polls and lost a significant number of seats in the Finnish municipal elections in April, while the United Patriots, a coalition of nationalist parties, lost three seats in the Bulgarian parliamentary elections in March.

Despite the differences in electoral systems from country to country and the quirky nature of some of the contests, such as in France its been a remarkably consistent pattern. The nationalist party fades as the election heats up and it begins to receive more scrutiny. Then it further underperforms its polls on election day, sometimes by several percentage points.

While theres no smoking gun to attribute this shift to Trump, theres a lot of circumstantial evidence. The timing lines up well: European right-wing parties had generally been gaining ground in elections until late last year; now we suddenly have several examples of their position receding. Trump is highly unpopular in Europe, especially in some of the countries to have held elections so far. Several of the candidates who fared poorly had praised Trump and vice versa. Hes explicitly become a subject of debate among the candidates in Germany and the U.K. To the extent the populist wave was partly an anti-establishment wave, Trump the president of the most powerful country on earth has now become a symbol of the establishment, at least to Europeans.

There are also several caveats. While there have been fairly consistent patterns in elections in the wealthy nations of Western Europe, we have little evidence for what will happen in the former nations of the Eastern Bloc, such as Hungary, which has moved substantially to the right in recent years. (The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled for early next year.) Turkey is a problematic case, obviously, especially given questions about whether elections are free or fair there under Tayyip Erdogan.

And even within these Western European countries, while support for nationalist parties has generally been lower than it was a year or two ago, it may still be higher than it was 10 or 20 years ago.

Politics is often cyclical, and endless series of reactions and counterreactions. Sometimes, what seems like the surest sign of an emerging trend can turn out to be its peak instead. Its usually hard to tell when youre in the midst of it. Trump probably hasnt set the nationalist cause back by decades, and the rise of authoritarianism continues to represent an existential threat to liberal democracy. But Trump may have set his cause back by years, especially in Western Europe. At the very least, its become harder to make the case that the nationalist tide is still on the rise.

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Donald Trump Is Making Europe Liberal Again - FiveThirtyEight

We all know that before he got into the game of politics, Trump hosted and produced the reality competition show "The Apprentice." What few of us remember are the nuggets of wisdom he doled out during the show's first season in 2004.

Dubbed "Donaldisms" on the show's DVD box set, the little vignettes feature Trump talking to an off-camera interviewer on different lessons as b-roll of Trump or the show's contestants plays off to the side.

As President, you're the boss. Underlings are for other people to deal with. As the leader of the free world, it's best to go straight to the other bosses to get things done.

Or, as kids of 2017 and/or DJ Khaled would say, negotiation is a #MajorKey.

"Negotiation is a very, very delicate art," Trump says of his favorite activity. And lord knows there's plenty of negotiation in politics -- in theory, anyway.

Trump's campaign rested on his reputation as a famous negotiator, a maker of deals. Even though the GOP's first attempt at the repeal of Obamacare under Trump foundered, it's far from the last thing Trump will need to negotiate.

"Once you make a deal with someone, it's really important to carry it through," Trump said on "The Apprentice."

And as President, inheriting the reins of a country that had been run by 43 other men before him, he also inherited two centuries' worth of previous deals, although he's already pulled out of some and indicated his frustration with others.

Trump pulled out of a massive Asian trade deal and a worldwide climate change effort negotiated by President Obama. Those are new deals, however. There are some long-standing agreements Trump wants to reconsider.

A deal is a deal, as businessman Trump said. Or, as they must surely say in diplomatic circles, an international military alliance is an international military alliance.

Donald Trump's biggest supporter is probably Donald Trump. As President, it's hard to count anyone else in politics as a certain ally. Congressional leaders will agree with you on one part of a bill, but not the other. International allies may stay mum when asked about your international agenda. You might even disagree with members of your own Cabinet.

It's debatable whether politics or business is more cutthroat, but in the end, you've got to look out for yourself in either field.

"Basically, nobody else is going to fight for you," Trump said on the TV show.

Harsh, but true. And when it comes to promoting on the job success, Trump is textbook.

Along the same lines, but extending beyond individual interests, it is important to throw yourself behind whatever product you're selling.

On "The Apprentice," contestants were tasked with projects like selling lemonade or creating an ad campaign for a luxury charter jet service. In the White House, the President is tasked with selling an agenda and creating jobs.

"If you don't believe it -- if you don't really believe it yourself -- it'll never work," Trump said on the show.

"When people come in to buy something, especially very rich people, they see details," Trump said in 2004.

When Congress members came in to buy the GOP's original health care deal -- Congress members who are largely independently wealthy -- they saw details they did not like.

See? The advice maps onto politics perfectly!

"So we're getting out, but we will start to negotiate and we will see if we can make a deal that's fair," Trump said at the beginning of June.

It wasn't a deal that Trump spent months going back and forth pulling teeth over. He didn't like the deal and wanted the US to walk until a time in the future that the accord might provide what he wanted.

"If it doesn't work out, take your lumps and relax," Trump told his TV audience in 2004.

The Paris accord wasn't working into Trump's plans, so the administration took its lumps -- whatever that means -- and tried to turn its focus to infrastructure.

Trump certainly didn't get to the Oval Office by playing by the political rules.

He also has a Twitter account that allows him to go outside the confines of traditional media to communicate with the public directly anytime day or night (or heinously early in the morning), and often at odds with the messaging of his own press shop.

"If you really want to be successful, that's how you're going to have to do it," Trump said on "The Apprentice."

"Surround yourself with talented people who also happen to be loyal," Trump said in 2004.

Following his own advice, Trump has brought his daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner on board at the White House. Ivanka previously advised her father on later seasons of "The Apprentice," proving that Trump and his audience weren't the only people who gained valuable knowledge from the show.

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Birthday advice from Apprentice Trump for White House Trump - CNN

FAR FROM HEAVEN Trumpworld, reimagined as one of Hieronymus Boschs Hell paintings.

Artwork by Glenn Palmer-Smith.

On May 19, 1962, at an event at Madison Square Garden celebrating John F. Kennedy, about to turn 45, Marilyn Monroe stepped onstage to sing. Wearing a dress that matched exactly the color of her skin, a sort of glowing, gleaming pale, and every bit as tighta dress, in other words, that took off her clothesshe made Happy Birthday sound like the lewdest of suggestions, an invitation to sin no mortal man could resist. In that moment, it became clear that, even if the cake hadnt yet been served, our president had already let our movie star blow out his candle. Pop culture had officially unofficially seduced politics.

Which is why Donald J. Trump is not Americas first pop-culture president. There was Kennedy, of course, but also Reagan, Clinton, Obama. In fact, as far as the past 50-plus years go, Trumps almost as much the rule as the exception, the same ol, same ol, more or less. Its the pop culture thats changed.

When a movie version of his life story was proposed, Kennedy had one actor in mind to play him: Cary Grant. Grant, the man-about-town of his time and ours, the savoir fairest of them all, was the creation of Archibald Leach, from the slums of Bristol, England. Its never been matched. Acknowledging the potency of the fantasy hed conjured, his blessing but also his curse, he said, Even I want to be Cary Grant. Meaning he wasnt. Meaning nobody could be.

Yet thats precisely who Barack Obama is. Its the style: an ultra-stylish style that doesnt involve primping or fuss. Its the manner, too: civilized, self-aware, masculine, though with a faint hint of ambiguity. Critic Pauline Kael called Grant the most publicly seduced male the world has known. Like Grant, Obama is a love object. Not passivereticent, withheld. He doesnt chase the girl, but he gets her all right. And he gets her by getting her to go after him. Why, we (yes, were the girls in this scenario) practically threw our votes his way.

Trumps erotic stratagem was different but no less effective, and embodied in his campaign slogan, Make America Great Again. The first time I heard it my reaction was somewhere between hostility and dismissal. What is this again shit?, I wondered. Were great now, the richest, freest, most powerful country on the planet. Its just more of his dark, divisive noise, I concluded. And it is. But its something else too, as I realized during a conversation with Republican strategist Steve Schmidt, a pro and very smart and no fan of Trumps. He referred to the slogan as brilliant. I thought about it some more, and my thoughts about it began to change. Brilliant I wont grant. But it does have a low cunning that might be better than brilliant.

THE 2016 ELECTION WASNT HILLARY VS. TRUMP. IT WAS MOVIE STAR VS. REALITY.

Heres what Make America Great Again is the equivalent of: a guy, a little long in the tooth, a little broad in the beam (Trump, lets say), spots a sensational-looking girl, a girl whos so far out of his league its a joke (America, lets say). Instead of complimenting her on her loveliness, he informs her that she needs a nose job, a tit job, braces, and to lose 10 pounds. The girl is about to tell him off, really let him have it, except something stops her. Its a thought, a devastating one, that maybe hes right, that maybe its everybody else whos shining her on and hes actually leveling with her. And just like that, in a single moment, shes his. At least until she wises up, and that could take a while.

So were clear, I did not vote for Trump. I regard him as a calamity and a disgrace, the worst thing to happen to this country in my lifetime. And yet, and yet, I respond to him. When he, a draft deferrer, venereal disease his quote personal Vietnam unquote, said of John McCain, who had exhibited such ferocious courage in that Hanoi prison it nearly defies comprehension, Hes a war hero because he was captured. I like people who werent captured, I laughed. The laugh was involuntary, just popping out of my mouth. What it was also was shameful, appalling, horrific. It meant that if I hadnt entertained such a thought myself I was capable of it. Another way of saying, I was shocked because I wasnt. The laugh, therefore, was not so much a signifier of amusement as recognition.

Though also of amusement because, for someone whos essentially humorless, Trump is fun-nee. The sheer recklessness of the things he says takes the breath away. How dare he? But again and again he dares. Hell attack, assault, degrade anyone. At his rallies there was the sense that even he didnt know who he was going to go after next. So, built right in was the frisson of suspense, which is one of the reasons they were the hottest ticket in whatever town they happened to be playing. Translation: he turned everybody on. Hillary, by contrast, at her rallies was calm, earnest, respectful. Translation: she bored asses off in all directions. Every move she made felt stage-managed, canned. Not so with Trump. He didnt need a teleprompter or even a prepared speech, would just saunter up to that podium and start to blow, to shpritz, to wing it, basically, and successfully, because he understood how to capture a crowds attention. Hijack it, really.

Its a talent hes been cultivating for years. Dont forget, Trumps spent much of his career clinging to the bottom rungs of the entertainment industry: Miss Universe pageants, WrestleMania IV, V, XX, and 23, and, of course, The Apprentice. No prestige pictures with blue-chip directors for him, no HBO limited series, he wasnt knocking them dead on Broadway or standing-room-only at Carnegie Hall. Guys played one toilet after another. And in so doing hes honed not just his performers instinctat events like WrestleMania, where he once body-slammed Vince McMahon before shaving the W.W.E. chairmans head, his contact with the audience is direct, nothing between him and it, skin on skin, bareback, babybut his common touch, as well. (Have you ever watched Miss Universe or WrestleMania? The Apprentice? Me neither. A lot of people have, though, and, dollars to doughnuts, theyre the ones walking around in those little red caps.) A related aside: the irony that a billionaire who started out life a millionaire has become the Working-Class Hero is forever being remarked upon by the media. Like, how much of a nitwit is Average Joe for imagining that Trump is his man. But its Average Joe whos got it right. Trump is Average Joe except filthy stinking rich, i.e., a winner. Hes managed to acquire money without acquiring sophistication. He still talks like a kid from Queens, has a taste for flashy cars and women, and lives in houses that make one long for the understated elegance of Graceland. By the way, I bet he watches Miss Universe, WrestleMania, and The Apprentice, and not just because hes keeping an eye on his investments.

And gutter showbiz has, Id contend, shaped his worldview. As president, hes turned a Supreme Court nomination into a Bachelor finale, less selected his Cabinet than cast it (If Im doing a movie, Id pick you . . . General Mattis), and cannot shut up about ratings (he opened the National Prayer Breakfast by remarking on the tanking popularity of The Celebrity Apprentice, asking the room full of lawmakers and dignitaries to just pray for Arnold [Schwarzenegger, the new host]).

Before I get to what Trump is, what Trump isnt: a businessman. Rather, hes a showbusinessman, part con manhow many bankruptcies has he declared? little guys has he stiffed?part ham actor impersonating a businessman. Even more so he isnt a president. The first few months of his administration have been somewhere between Dr. Strangelove played straight and Dr. Strangelove played camp. What he is is a reality star. In fact, you could argue that he invented the concept. I was born in 1978, not in New York, and yet hes been on my radar since I can remember, his life, his loves, his scandals constantly in the tabloids, and what are Page Six and the National Enquirer but the Ur-E! and Bravo?

The 2016 election wasnt Hillary vs. Trump. It was Movie Star vs. Reality. Not only because Obama was Hillarys most dynamic surrogate but because practically every star in Hollywoodmovie, though TV and music, toocampaigned on her behalf. And yet Reality won, proof that movies dont hold sway over the public imagination as they once did, in itself proof that the public wants a different type of relationship with its stars. Stars used to be exactly that: radiant entities to be marveled at from a distance. Thanks to social media, however, the 24-hour news cycle, distance is no longer possible. Perfectly O.K., since an up-close view is what we truly crave, each pore, each wrinkle, each pimple in high definition. And whos interested in seeing a posed photo these days? Better the ones without makeup or undies or even knowledge. (When a stars lover or ex-lover sneaks an intimate shot and then leaks itooo-wee, pay dirt.) And beat it with your puff pieces already. We dont care about Johnny Depps charity work. What were hot to know is, did he really smack Amber around and openhanded or closed and was he loaded at the time? We continue to be moved by beauty. Were also moved, though, and more powerfully, by ugliness: physical, social, moral. Our stars are still stars, only the term now is ironic since we dont look up at them but down.

Trump never feigned virtue during his campaign. And thats what made him, for many voters, the authentic candidate. He was a brute and a son of a bitch, except he, in the immortal words of Real Housewife Bethenny Frankel, owned it. And owning it, in the reality-TV world, which, lets face it, is the world we are currently living in, absolves all sins. Its why everything that was sure to bring him downcalling Mexican immigrants rapists, ridiculing the disabled, speculating on the menstrual cycle of a news anchor, etc.didnt, if anything increased his strength. He became a mash-up of Simon Cowell, Spencer Pratt, and Teresa Giudice, a super-villain, as impossible to kill as he was to stop watching.

Interesting to note: traditional stars are bowed but not broken when it comes to Trump, indeed reality stars in general. They responded to his inauguration party the same way Jay Z and Beyonc responded to Kim and Kanyes nuptialsby staying away in droves. Well, rejecting the pretensions of the peacocking parvenu is one of the sweetest pleasures left to the fallen aristocrat. Also interesting: its Obama, the younger man, and seemingly the more modern in every conceivable respect, whos the throwback.

Theres something Trump is every bit as fundamentally as a reality star, and thats a stand-up comic. Lenny Bruce, specifically. (Hey, if Bill Clinton was, according to Toni Morrison, our first black president, why cant Trump be our first Jewish?) Hes an eighth-rate version of Bruce, to be sure, and an unwitting one. Has none of Bruces hipness or perspicacity. He does, however, have Bruces shamelessness, and Bruces free-associative, buggy style, and he goes as far as Bruce. His mocking of McCain was, in fact, like an updating of Bruces Jackie Kennedy Hauling Ass to Save Her Ass routine, and equally as blasphemous.

Timing is, of course, everything. It was in the 50s that Bruce, the lounge-lizard dark prince, started to slay at the clubs in the more happening cities. Now these days, the present day, is the polar opposite of that tight-assed decadegay couples can marry! movie about queer black youth takes big prize at Oscars! transgender woman on the cover of this very magazine!except think again. The 2010s, with its safe spaces and trigger warnings, its dont-say-thises and dont-think-thats, where feeling like a victim is the hot pastime and male burden is the new male privilege, are, in certain ways, even tighter-assed, a neo-Victorian era masquerading as the waning days of the Roman Empire. Political correctness is just another form of fascism. (That fascism now comes from the left doesnt make it any less stifling.) People are almost comically alienated from their instincts. The super-ego reigns supreme.

TRUMP SPENT HIS CAREER CLINGING TO THE BOTTOM RUNGS OF THE ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY.

Enter Trump, pure id. No cruelty-free-tofu-nibbling, prissy-European-taste-having, sorry-excuse-for-a-man man he. Unh-uh. Hes a big butch American hot dog. Hes not tortured by the idea of using torture. And a nuclear-arms race? Bring it on, sayeth he, those loser countries will be eating our atomic dust: We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all. Hes a swinging dick and an alpha male, a maker of deals and a builder of buildingswhy, the Manhattan skyline is simply crammed with his erections! And since were on the topic of erections, he isnt one of those pencil-necked sissies who need a woman to sign a permission slip before hell try to hold her hand. Hell no, he grabs pussy first, asks questions later. Is a masher of the type thats supposed to have died out generations ago.

This isnt to say hes devoid of romantic feeling. Who could forget that series of impassioned tweets from 2012 in which he urged Robert Pattinson not to take back the cheating Kristen Stewart. (Had Pattinson been his fella, he wouldnt have treated him so shabbily seems to be the message hes trying to convey.) There is, too, the wistful, teenage-girl note that creeps into his voice whenever he talks about Vladimir Putin. Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscowif so, will he become my new best friend? Does Trump secretly long for the brutal quasi-dictator to take him in his arms, crush him to his chest, make him dream again?

And then theres Trumps temperament, which is, and not to be a traitor to my sex, on the womanish side. He clutches to his dignity as tenaciously as a dowager to her pearls. Never does he let an insult roll off his back. Make a dig about his hand size, for example, and he will (in fairness, rightly) perceive it as a dig about his manhood. Could the Donalds Donald be merely a Don? Not to hear him tell it: My fingers are long and beautiful, as . . . are various other parts of my body. Touchy, touchy.

It was in 1961 that Bruce said the 10-letter word onstage, got arrested for obscenity. His life was ruined, but it was the making of him. Hed always been more than a guy in a rented tux telling jokes to drunks. Suddenly, though, he was a rebel with a causeAmendment Numero Uno. He refused to be silenced, endured bust after bust, so that we might speak. And, five years later, his martyrdom would be complete when he died in a bathroom, fat, naked, a needle sticking out of his arm. The Christ who said cocksucker.

If Trump were really smart, hed have done the same. Not the dying-next-to-a-toilet thing, the losing-in-order-to-win-big thing. Trump feeds off the ardor of his fans, and his best chance of retaining that ardor lay in defeat in a squeaker. Then hed be able to claim that he was the man who could be, nay, should be, king, and spend the remainder of his days shaking a Byronic fist at the rigged system, the ideal situation for someone who is, by nature, an outsider and a rager. Instead, he pulled off the upset. Now hes on the inside of the inside, in a job that requires, above all else, calm reflection and sober judgment. No longer can he say whatever kooky little whacked-out thought that pops into his skull. Not without bringing down a world of shit, anyway (see: Obama wiretapping tweets). And, oh yeah, hes going to actually have to deliver on his campaign promises or risk hurtful comparisons to Crooked Hillary. And from there its only a short jump to the most painful scenario of all: the crowds love turning into hate, the cheers turning into jeers.

Hes president of the United States. Its his nightmare. Our worst nightmare.

Losing to wind next to his helicopter in Scotland.

Losing to wind at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland.

Losing to wind as he heads to Indiana.

Losing to wind while hes in Scotland to discuss bankrolling an anti-wind-farm campaign in order to fight an off-shore development near his luxury golf resort.

Losing to wind in the presence of Tom Brady.

Losing to wind while waving.

Putting up a good fight but ultimately losing to wind in Scotland.

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Losing to wind next to his helicopter in Scotland.

By Michael McGurk/Alamy.

Losing to wind at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland.

By Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images.

Losing to wind as he heads to Indiana.

By Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images.

Losing to wind while hes in Scotland to discuss bankrolling an anti-wind-farm campaign in order to fight an off-shore development near his luxury golf resort.

By Danny Lawson/PA/A.P.

Losing to wind while he talks to Patriots owner Robert Kraft before a game.

From Splash News.

Losing to wind at the house on the Isle of Lewis, Scotland, where his mother was born before she immigrated to the United States in 1929.

From PA/Alamy.

Losing to wind while boarding the Marine One helicopter at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.

By Jonathan Ernst/Reuters.

Losing to wind while leaving One World Trade in New York.

By Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images.

Losing to wind in the presence of Tom Brady.

From Boston Herald/Splash News.

Losing to wind while waving.

By Rob Carr/Getty Images.

Putting up a good fight but ultimately losing to wind in Scotland.

By Michael McGurk/Rex/Shutterstock.

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Donald Trump's Biggest Mistake Might Have Been Getting Elected - Vanity Fair

A lot of people are calling Donald Trump a lot of things.

President. Liar. Hero. Crook.

What we can all agree on is that he is Americas first modern asymmetric warrior president.

Thats not a criticism. Nor a compliment. Its simply a fact.

Its what he has in common with Airbnb and Uber, Instagram and YouTube, Kim Kardashian-West and Kylie Jenner. They are all asymmetric warriors, disrupting traditional industries with strategies and tactics heretofore unknown and unimagined even unimaginable by traditional warriors.

We have had asymmetric warfare since the first caveman crafted a spear to defeat stronger, faster, bigger-fanged enemies. From time immemorial, under-resourced foes have devised new strategies and tactics which defy norms (and often laws) to build advantage from weakness.

Like asymmetric warriors throughout history, Trump doesnt give a whit about the institutions at work or the normal rules of engagement. He has thereby created advantage from disadvantage.

Historically, larger institutions, despite their myriad advantages, have struggled to deal with asymmetric foes. The nature of their size, stature, staffing and status lead to the implementation of process, procedure, rules and regulations which make adapting to these insurgents difficult. Think the warriors of the American Revolution. Think the Viet Cong. A big established army marches in formation; young, scrappy and hungry troops break rules and create new norms, shocking the enemy.

The difference today is that technology and the fragmentation of media have accelerated the pace and broadened the range of battlegrounds on which asymmetric warfare can be waged.

That is literally the case with Al Qaeda and ISIS, which have taken advantage of modern communication and financial instruments to organize and fund terror campaigns globally.

It is figuratively the case with Uber and Lyft, which have flouted laws to build massive global companies and undermined taxi and black-car businesses in the process, while fostering the growth of the gig economy and creating new services that millions of people around the world rely on daily. The very nature of employment and transportation have changed because of these businesses.

You cant open a newspaper (or more likely a news app on a phone) without seeing another article about the death rattle of brick-and-mortar retail. Sears shutting down stores. Macys in a tailspin. On exiting the extraordinary business that he led to enormous success, visionary J. Crew CEO Mickey Drexler said, Ive never seen the speed of change as it is today. If I could go back 10 years, I might have done some things earlier.

Meanwhile, the artist Donald Robertson (an asymmetric warrior himself just follow him on Instagram) has stopped calling the Kardashian-Jenners, Jeffree Stars and Lilly Singhs of the world influencers and has started calling them retailers. They are building massive new businesses from the tools of the internet along with open-sourced product development and distribution networks while traditional rivals are captive to the innovators dilemma, petrified by the prospect of cannibalizing their own businesses and, for public companies, frozen by the need to show quarterly growth.

It is happening in media, as well. Roughly 40 years ago, cable companies emerged, delivering not only programming bundles to viewers at efficient prices, but generating a second reliable revenue stream for TV networks. At its height, ESPN had more than 100 million cable subscribers paying roughly $7 a month for their networks. But insurgents have created new options for the attention economy as YouTube, Instagram and Snapchat grab share with new business models, ESPN is down to 88 million subscribers still a massive number, but that nets out to a billion dollars in yearly revenue down the drain.

A billion.

In the very same time frame, more than three-quarters of every advertising dollar migrating to the internet has gone to two companies (Google and Facebook). For decades, luxury advertisers had to be in Vogue magazine. They had no choice. Today, the French billionaire and chair of Guccis parent company Francois-Henri Pinault is acknowledging, If we were to launch a brand today, all the communication to start would be online. Maybe spending with Vogue. But maybe not.

If we have learned anything from Donald Trump, it is that no industry or institution is immune. No one can stand their ground while it shifts beneath their feet.

Which brings us to politics. Barack Obama was an evolutionary campaigner. He raised more money, organized more support and spread his message more efficiently using the new systems made available by high-speed internet than anyone in history because he got the power of those new systems right as they emerged.

Donald Trump is revolutionary in that he not only has evolved the use of those same tools, but because he has flouted the rules of engagement. Trump has been engaged in asymmetric warfare from the very beginning. His detractors detest him for it. His supporters relish it.

We see it in how he governs. He declares for reelection within days of assuming office. He opens the White House press corps to blatant propagandists. He credits the fired FBI director when it suits him, disparages him when it doesnt, and refers to any media report that doesnt fit his narrative as fake news.

Why? Well, why not? Traditionalists wag tongues. Trump cackles and holds rallies. Asymmetrically.

Like asymmetric warriors throughout history, Trump doesnt give a whit about the institutions at work or the normal rules of engagement. He has thereby created advantage from disadvantage. Its not just the Democrats who are caught flat-footed. The establishment GOP candidates who had all the right credentials, funders and staffing got their clocks cleaned because they failed to adapt to the changing landscape (See, for example, Jeb Bush).

To be clear, being an asymmetric warrior does not guarantee long-term success. We are seeing that with Trump and Uber in real time. That said, betting on execution risk when the consequences for the Republic are this massive is a risky play, particularly when Trump is deploying historically devastatingly effective strategy.

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote:

Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out victory in relation to the foe who he [or she] is facing. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions.

Those words were written in the fifth century B.C. They have never been truer than they are today.

If we have learned anything from Donald Trump, it is that no industry or institution is immune. No one can stand their ground while it shifts beneath their feet. Past is prologue. Only those who can adapt quickly will survive, much less thrive, in the new world order.

Most of these legacy entities (from the Democratic and Republican parties to Fortune 500 companies) are built as luxury liners. Increasingly, they are heading for icebergs. They need to become more like their competition flotillas of speedboats, nimble, agile and opportunistic. ASAP.

Jeff Berman is president of Whalerock Industries, a media and technology company based in West Hollywood. Before joining Whalerock, Berman was the general manager of digital media at the NFL. He previously held a series of positions at Myspace, ultimately serving as president of sales and marketing. He also served on the board of Buddy Media (acquired by Salesforce) and as an adviser to a broad range of companies. Prior to entering the media space, Berman served as chief counsel to U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer, and as a public defender representing children charged in the District of Columbia's adult criminal courts. He also held an adjunct professorship at the Georgetown University Law Center. Reach him @bermanjeff.

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Donald Trump, Uber and the Viet Cong have something in common they are all asymmetric warriors - Recode

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Jeff Sessions, Dennis Rodman, Donald Trump: Your Morning Briefing - New York Times