BBC News | How OJ Simpson paved the way for Donald Trump BBC News It seems entirely fitting that OJ Simpson should reappear at this surreal juncture in American life because many of the trends that culminated in the election of Donald J Trump can be traced back to his arrest and trial. Consider first of all the ... |
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How OJ Simpson paved the way for Donald Trump - BBC News
Since taking office, President Trump has routinely touted stock market gains and positive jobs reports as evidence that he is succeeding.
Economists say that while he can take some credit for the stock market, it's far too soon for his policies to have affected the job market.
That's because the stock market tends to react to expectations as much as reality, so it's reasonable to assume that traders responded to some of Trump's campaign promises, such as cutting taxes. But employers make hiring decisions based on fundamental factors like the health of the economy, which a president can only influence indirectly.
In the short term, presidents do have a major impact on the rise and fall of the stock market, said Bob Bruner, current economics professor and former dean of the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia. Presidents can declare intentions to adjust taxes, impose antitrust enforcement on industriessuch as Jack Kennedy diddeclare war, or undertake military actions without the sanctions of Congress. All of those things dramatically affect the expectations of the capital markets.
The growth in the stock market during Trumps first 100 days was the most under any president during that period since 1989the first year of George H. W. Bush's presidency. This boomwhich has been coined the Trump Bumpwas likely driven by Trumps promises to slash taxes and pass an infrastructure bill.
No one ever knows why the stock market does what it does, says Alan Binder , an economics professor at Princeton University. But its not an unreasonable supposition that the election of Donald Trump had something to do with it. Maybe a lot to do with it.
However, despite the success of the stock market under Trump, its gains are somewhat contingent on the president actually getting that agenda signed into law, something he has struggled with. "Markets react to sentiment but they are sustained by facts and commitments," added Bruner.
Trump has yet to succeed on getting any major part of his agenda passed. The Obamacare repeal recently died in the Senate, and little to no progress has been made on passing an infrastructure bill or tax reformtwo other signature parts of Trump's agenda. If nothing continues to get done, the gains in the stock market ignited by Trump could disappear.
Binder says that in terms of economic policy Trump has "basically done nothing," besides cutting back regulations in a "minor" way. However, Binder also noted that Trump has "not done anything bad macro-economically either."
The president's ability to influence economic growth is sometimes overstated, economists agree.
Presidents can affect the economy through the decisions they make, but it often takes years to gauge the impact. For instance, most economists now say President Obama's stimulus package helped pull the U.S. out of the recession, even though a majority of Americans at the time believed it didn't work. Likewise, President George W. Bush's decision to launch the Iraq War could have contributed to Great Recession, economists note . But, even so, the president, Bruner says, is just one of the "many cooks in the kitchen" that influence the economy.
So, while Trump may deserve some credit for the boost in the stock market, his impact on job creation and overall growth remains to be seen. Yet the president, on Twitter, has repeatedly taken credit for the positive jobs reports.
"It's premature," said Stephen Moore , a visiting fellow at the Project for Economic Growth at The Heritage Foundation, of Trump's tweets on jobs growth. "It takes a while for policies to translate into jobs. Stock markets react instantaneously to things. For jobs to come backthat takes longer."
Job growth has increased steadily under Trump . Through the president's first five full months in office, employers added 863,000 jobs and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percentan indication the economy is doing well. But the job growth under Trump is also similar to the last five months of Obama's presidency, when 908,000 jobs were added, showing that the increase is likely just a continuation.
The jobs results are the outcomes of many people," said Bruner. "Trump is merely basking in the afterglow of solid economic news. The roots of which extend well back in time."
Also, by taking credit for a robust economy so early in his presidency, Trump may be digging himself into a hole if there's an economic downturn later on in his four year term.
"If you want to own the economy, you own it," added Moore. "And that can be hazardous."
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Donald Trump Keeps Taking Credit for the Economy. How Much Should He Get? - Fortune
Our Louis XIV. Photo-Illustration: Daily Intelligencer; Photos: Hyacinthe Rigaud, Louis XIV, Louvre Museum; Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images (Trump)
In his bizarre New York Times interview, Donald Trump expresses his characteristic assortment of fever-dream assertions. The president believes Hillary Clinton was totally opposed to any sanctions for Russia, that a properly amortized health-insurance plan would cost $12 a year, that Napoleons one problem is he didnt go to Russia that night because he had extracurricular activities, and that Trump has somehow either carried out or reversed sweeping land reforms (Ive given the farmers back their farms. Ive given the builders back their land to build houses and to build other things). Yet a consistent idea manages to poke through the delirious rambling. Trump repeatedly affirmed his conviction that the entire federal government ought to be operated for his personal benefit.
Trump expressed this idea by returning several times to the phrase conflict of interest. Trump himself is of course the most personally conflicted president in modern American history. He has maintained a vast, undisclosed business empire and openly used his powers in office to enrich himself. But he does not mention this conflict of interest. Instead he applies the phrase to any law-enforcement official who might potentially get in his way.
The headline of the story was Trumps anger that Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself from an investigation into the Trump campaigns connections to Russia. The cause of the recusal flows self-evidently from basic legal principles. Sessions played a key role in the Trump campaign, so obviously he cant conduct an investigation into it. In Trumps mind, though, it is obvious that managing the investigation into the Trump campaign is the very thing his handpicked Attorney General ought to do:
Jeff Sessions takes the job, gets into the job, recuses himself. I then have which, frankly, I think is very unfair to the president. How do you take a job and then recuse yourself? If he would have recused himself before the job, I would have said, Thanks, Jeff, but I cant, you know, Im not going to take you.
It is not as if the job of overseeing the Russia investigation is not being done. What Trump objects to is the fact that he was deprived of the chance to choose the official who is overseeing it.
Trump goes on to explain or, to put it more accurately, gesture at his belief that everybody else in government is fatally conflicted. Robert Mueller is conflicted because he interviewed to be the head of the FBI to replace James Comey. The acting FBI director is conflicted because his wife ran for state Senate as a Democrat. Muellers staff is conflicted. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is conflicted because hes from Baltimore There are very few Republicans in Baltimore, if any. (Rosenstein is not from Baltimore, and was appointed as a U.S. Attorney by George W. Bush.) In contrast to Trumps notion that he is surrounded by officials fatally conflicted by loyalties to causes other than Donald Trump is his belief that he possesses the legitimate authority to control law enforcement as he pleases. He paints the role of the FBI director as his personal subordinate. The FBI person really reports directly to the president of the United States, which is interesting. You know, which is interesting, he says.
It is true that the FBI director reports to the president. That is one half of a delicate but vital constitutional arrangement designed to ensure that neither the FBI director nor the president can amass completely untrammeled power over law enforcement in a way that would invite political abuse. That is why the FBI director has a ten-year term, rather than serving as a political appointee like other Executive branch officials. And it is why the bureau has the foundational creed that elected officials cannot interfere with any investigation. Instead, Trump reaffirms his view that he has the right to stop any law-enforcement investigation at will: I could have ended that whole thing just by saying they say it cant be obstruction because you can say: Its ended. Its over. Period, he states.
Six months into his presidency, foundational republican concepts remain as foreign as ever to Trump. He believes the entire federal government owes its personal loyalty to him, and that the office of the presidency is properly a vehicle for personal and familial enrichment. If the rule of law survives this era intact, it will only be because the president is too inept to undermine it.
A four-member parole board voted unanimously to set Simpson free as soon as October.
Surprisingly, a trash can is a decent shield against a giant blade.
A tough reporter and a lovely person, gone way, way too soon.
The latest version of Trumpcare would cost 22 million people health coverage, just like its predecessor, but McConnell has some room to maneuver.
Mujtaba al-Sweikat, accepted to Western Michigan University, was arrested for attending pro-democracy protests.
Doctors discovered a brain tumor during surgery to remove a blood clot last week.
Youd expect a presidential tirade against a top appointee to lead to a firing or resignation. Not with Donald Trump but the optics are terrible.
On Wednesday, Trump said Mueller shouldnt probe his business dealings. On Thursday, a report says Mueller is already doing it.
The president seems to think more time and effort will overcome the divisions among Senate Republicans on health care. So far, no signs hes right.
Heres a fun theory.
Last year, Trump promised universal health care. Now, to build support for throwing millions off insurance, his team is trying to make Obamacare fail.
The president explains his belief that a conflict of interest is any loyalty to anything but Trump.
Republicans took Obama to court over the presidents duty to take care that laws be faithfully executed. Democrats should do the same.
A former staffer for now-retired Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid on the Trumpcare debacle.
Trumps former campaign chairman is set to testify before the Senate next week.
He says he wouldnt have hired Sessions if he knew hed recuse himself, suggesting he wanted the attorney general to control the Russia probe.
CBO says a straight repeal would cost 32 million their health coverage while doubling premiums.
Putin won in Syria, one anonymous official told the Washington Post.
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Donald Trump: L'tat, C'est Moi - New York Magazine
Separately, our correspondent reflects on what he witnessed in Mosul, Iraq, while he was embedded with Iraqi Special Operations Forces as they fought to retake the city from the Islamic State. One father said of his children: Theyve only known war and destruction.
In Washington, the Supreme Court has temporarily allowed the Trump administration to enforce restrictions on the nations refugee program, but it let stand a court order from Hawaii exempting grandparents and other relatives from the White Houses travel ban.
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The Polish governments push to control the judiciary has now led to threats of E.U. sanctions.
Frans Timmermans, first vice president of the European Commission, warned that Poland might slip outside the blocs definition of a democracy.
The governing Law and Justice party dismissed criticism as foreign interference. It holds a majority of seats in both chambers of Parliament and enjoys widespread popularity for its increased social spending.
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Most of the 8.3 billion metric tons of plastic that humanity has produced since the 1950s ends up in landfills or the ocean; about half of that has been made since 2004, according to the first analysis of all mass-produced plastics.
The primary explanation for the increase is plastics use in packaging.
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The British Open begins today in northwest England. Some of golfs top players are struggling right now, leaving the tournament wide open.
Meanwhile, Scotland is having a hard time attracting young people to the sport, invented on its lush greens. Some blame the weather.
And as the Tour de France scaled its highest Alpine peak, a rookie won Stage 17, but Chris Froome consolidated his overall lead. Marcel Kittel of Germany dropped out after a crash.
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Citigroup, the American lender with a trading hub in London, is said to be planning another hub in Frankfurt, to prepare for Britains departure from the European Union.
Mario Draghi is facing a difficult task today: preparing markets for the day the European Central Bank begins withdrawing stimulus.
Only one-third of the BBCs top-paid stars are women, according to data that the publicly funded British broadcaster published for the first time.
Heres a snapshot of global markets.
Senator John McCain has brain cancer. The former Republican presidential nominee has been critical of the Trump administrations distancing from NATO. [The New York Times]
We found out more about the sudden ouster of Saudi Arabias former crown prince. He was held against his will and pressured for hours to give up his claim to the throne. [The New York Times]
Frances top general resigned after his criticism of President Emmanuel Macrons plan to cut military spending was leaked to the news media. [The New York Times]
Miguel Blesa, a top Spanish banker who gained prominence in a corruption and embezzlement inquiry, was found dead with a gunshot wound. [El Pas]
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, was recorded making critical comments about the E.U. at a closed meeting with central European leaders in Hungary. [The Guardian]
Winston Churchill tried to suppress evidence suggesting that Britains Duke of Windsor, who was King Edward VIII before abdicating, wanted peace with Nazi Germany, newly released documents show. [Bloomberg]
To the Bone, a Netflix film, has opened a debate about eating disorders. Hundreds of readers shared their experiences. [The New York Times]
Tips, both new and old, for a more fulfilling life.
Enter the wilderness for increased exercise benefits.
But dont exercise too hard. Doctors say they are seeing more of a rare but dangerous condition among newcomers to spin classes.
Grilled steak marinated in teriyaki sauce is a foolproof dinner youll make again and again.
Witness a Ukrainian military summer camp for children outside of Kiev. As the conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists continues, they are encouraged to prepare to defend their country.
A military summer camp outside Ukraines capital, started by a volunteer regiment that fights pro-Russian rebels, trains children in warfare. We took our 360 cameras there for the video above.
The 2018 Pirelli calendar is consolidating its role as a cultural barometer. It reimagines Alices Adventures in Wonderland with an all-black celebrity cast.
Luc Besson talked to us about his sci-fi extravaganza, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. It is Frances most expensive film ever. Yeah, but who cares? he said.
If the flurry of tournaments this summer isnt enough for you, take note that an international competition thats as important to some athletes as the Olympics starts today.
Over the next 10 days, more than 3,000 athletes from 111 countries will compete at the 10th World Games in Wroclaw, Poland.
Like the Olympics, the competition occurs every four years and is under the patronage of the International Olympic Committee. Some of the 31 sports at the World Games might be described as niche: tug of war, lifesaving, boules and casting (like fishing but without water).
The World Games are billed as a steppingstone for lesser-known sports to admission at the Olympic Games, and many representatives of those sports have put their hopes into showing that they, too, can attract a crowd.
John Liljelund, the worlds top floorball official, said, We have a clear possibility to showcase the value and interest of our sport.
There are precedents, although it is unclear how much of a role the World Games played.
Rugby, a World Games sport, was elevated to Olympic glory during last years Games in Rio de Janeiro. Surfing, karate and baseball will become Olympic sports in Tokyo in 2020.
Above, Team Japan during the womens tug of war competition in 2005.
_____
This briefing was prepared for the European morning. We also have briefings timed for the Australian, Asian and American mornings. You can sign up for these and other Times newsletters here.
Your Morning Briefing is published weekday mornings and updated online.
What would you like to see here? Contact us at europebriefing@nytimes.com.
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Donald Trump, John McCain, Golf: Your Thursday Briefing - New York Times
Even as his domestic approval ratings hit an all-time low, US president Donald Trump can take comfort in his growing popularity in some parts of Africas most populous nation.
Though his xenophobic, white nationalist views have no doubt alienated many Nigerians, his nativist and Islamophobic rhetoric has energized others. Indeed some see Trump as a political icon. Even though Trump has said little to nothing about Nigeria, these groups see in him a powerful figure sympathetic to their aims.
It goes without saying that Nigerians reaction to Trumps 2016 election victory was muted compared to their response to president Barack Obamas historic 2008 win. Over the course of his presidency, however, Nigerian goodwill toward Obama faded, hurt by his decision not to visit Nigeria, his support for gay marriage, and perceived unwillingness to supply arms to the Nigerian military. Former president Goodluck Jonathan even accused the Obama Administration of clandestinely supporting president Muhammadu Buharis candidacy, claiming U.S. actions during Nigerias 2015 presidential election amounted to interference.
Despite these irritants, 69% of Nigerians still view the United States favorably, according to a 2017 Pew Research Center poll. This reservoir of goodwillcombined with Trumps robust social media following and his ambivalence about contentious issues like human rightssuggests Trump might receive a warm welcome if he decided to visit Nigeria. A U.S. presidential visit is long overdue: the last was by George W. Bush in July 2003.
So how big is Trumps Nigerian fan base? In the absence of public polling, one quantifiable metric of Nigerian interest in Trump is the number of people following him on Twitter. Over 700,000 Nigerians tune in to Trumps tweets: over 2% of his 32 million followers, according to TweepsMap.com. His Nigeria-based Facebook is another useful metric of his popularity: between October and June it more than quadrupled, says analytics firm SocialBakers.com.
Nigeria has the 5th highest share of Trump followers on Twitter
Trumps social media popularity among Nigerians belies the fact that he didnt mention Nigeria during his campaign and has said little about it since becoming president, though he had a phone conversation with president Buhari in February. Trump has also approved the sale of fighter jets to Nigeria to help in its fight against Boko Haram.
Nevertheless, his generically nativist and Islamophobic messaging resonates with many particularly among some members of two ethno-political constituencies: Christian, self-described indigenes in the middle belts Plateau State and Igbo nationalists across the southeast.
Trumps boldness and guts represent hope for the defenseless. Obama was a disgrace and weak compared to Trump and Putin.Six weeks before Trumps election victory, on a cool evening outside JosPlateau States at times volatile capitala friend who is an up-and-coming local politico explained to me why he and other like-minded indigenes are attracted to the US president: Trumps boldness and guts represent hope for the defenseless, he said. Obama was a disgrace and weak compared to the likes of Trump and Putin. He speaks in favor of Islam which is the root cause of terrorism.
When I suggest Nigerians should be concerned by Trumps anti-immigrant stance and white supremacist sympathies, my friend acknowledged that these probably would influence his feelings toward Trump if he was a Nigerian-American living in the United States, but as a non-resident, it did not.
Like my friend, some self-described Biafrans (modern-day Igbo nationalists) have also emerged as vocal Trump supporters. Biafra was the name adopted by Nigerias then-Eastern Region when rebel leaders attempted to secede from Nigeria in 1967. Following a two-and-a-half year long civil war that left over 2 million people dead, Nigeria defeated the rebels.
Unbeknownst to him, Trump is being hailed as a patron of this controversial movement even though he lacks any connectiondirect or indirectto it. According to journalist Atane Ofiaja, Biafran affinity for Trump is rooted in his statements on political self-determination and radical Islam, while deliberately overlooking his racist, anti-immigrant policies.
These statements refer to a tweet Trump made in June 2016 in support of the British electorates decision to leave the European Union (Brexit):
Pro-Biafra websites pounced on the tweet, attempting to extrapolate Trumps support for Biafran independence from it, claiming it was a direct message to Nigeria that it should allow Biafrans to go.
Trumps Islamophobic pronouncements have also appeared to resonate with Biafra activists, who sometimes blame Nigerias northern Muslim leadership for oppressing their people over the decades.
It was the prayers of the Biafrans that stopped Hillary Clinton from winning the presidential election.After Trumps election victory, one spokesman proclaimed: Since Mr Trump is our choice, who will say no to Muslim colonization. It was the prayers of the Biafrans that stopped Hillary Clinton from winning the presidential election. Pro-Biafra activists on social media are amplifying this and other anti-Islamic narratives, merging them with pro-Trump and anti-Buhari messages.
Though extreme and at times unhinged, this rhetoric reflects the perception among some Nigerians that the Obama administration was unduly close to president Buhari and that it somehow facilitated his 2015 election victory. Six months into Trumps term, however, Biafran activists are beginning to express some disappointment that Trump has yet to acknowledge their plight and has instead cultivated a cordial relationship with their perceived archenemy: president Buhari.
As Trump enters his seventh month in the Oval Office, his administrations policy toward Nigeriaor toward Africa writ largehasnt coalesced. Trump has yet to appoint the two people who will heavily shape his approach to Nigeria: the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs and the Senior Director for Africa on the National Security Council. Even more telling, Washington insiders have little sense of when he will name them or who they will be.
In the meantime, US policy toward Nigeria will largely be steered by US Ambassador to Nigeria W. Stuart Symington, an affable career diplomat and former ambassador to Rwanda. Since arriving in Abuja last year, Symington has worked hard to cultivate relationships across the federal and many state governments.
Unless Trumpvia a tweet or unscripted public musingdisrupts the US Nigeria policy consensus that guides diplomats like Symington, his Nigerian fan base may become increasingly disillusioned with a man they hoped would rally to their cause.
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In spite of everything, Nigerians have a weird attraction to Donald Trump - Quartz