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The U.S. is hinting at a possible return to war with North Korea after Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, and it is proposing wider U.N. sanctions against any country that does business with this outlaw regime.

Even a so-called surgical strike against North Korea would risk staggering civilian casualties, complicating matters for the U.S. and South Korea. The Chinese leader also has limited options, our Beijing bureau chief notes.

The nuclear push is just one sign of how, despite sanctions, the Norths leader, Kim Jong-un, has been trying to project a strong image with a string of infrastructure projects.

A fallen warrior.

Officer Miosotis Familia, who was shot dead in the Bronx while on duty, was murdered for her uniform, the New York City police commissioner said.

Our reporters spoke to her family and friends, who said she was tough and that was the job for her.

The gunman, Alexander Bonds, was a 34-year-old former prisoner with mental health problems and a history of anger toward the police and justice system.

Venezuelas lawmakers under attack.

A mob stormed the opposition-dominated National Assembly with the apparent acquiescence of government troops on Wednesday.

The assault was a sharp escalation of lawlessness in a country roiled by a failing economy and daily protests.

A bet on electric.

Volvo, the Sweden-based automaker owned by Geely of China, will introduce only hybrid or electric models beginning in 2019. Thats a first for a mainstream car company.

Its chief executive said that while the strategy has risks, a much bigger risk would be to stick with internal combustion engines.

The Daily, your audio news report.

In todays episode, we discuss how the U.S. underestimated North Korea, and how the battle over health care is playing out in Kentucky.

Listen on a computer, an iOS device or an Android device.

Hopes for a Trump bump on the U.S. economy are shrinking, as estimates for the second quarter are being revised downward.

Oil exports from the U.S., illegal for decades to anywhere but Canada, are prompting a Texas port boom.

Ubers tax calculation may have cost drivers in New York hundreds of millions of dollars.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Wednesday. Heres a snapshot of global markets.

Tips, both new and old, for a more fulfilling life.

Stereotypically macho messages limit childrens understanding of what it means to be a father, man or boy.

Yotam Ottolenghi, an Israeli-British chef, suggests blueberry, almond and lemon cake as the perfect companion to a cup of tea.

Catching that outdoor vibe.

DJ Khaled, the longtime producer, performer and social-media star, gives an affectionate tour of his backyard in 360 degrees.

In todays 360 video, DJ Khaled, a longtime producer, performer and social-media star, gives an affectionate tour of his backyard.

All the presidents lawyers.

The Times Magazine looks at how Donald Trumps life and career have been defined by legal battles, and at whether the attorneys who guided him through the courtrooms of New York and New Jersey know how to navigate Washington.

Love in soccer.

Bianca Sierra and Stephany Mayor played for Mexico in the 2015 Womens World Cup. But after coming out as a couple, they traveled far from home to find acceptance.

Antiquities, returned.

The art supplies seller Hobby Lobby has agreed to give up 5,500 artifacts, including ancient clay cuneiform tablets, that were smuggled out of Iraq and labeled tile samples. The company will pay $3 million to settle the case.

Quotation of the day.

Self-restraint, which is a choice, is all that separates armistice and war.

Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, commander of U.S. troops in South Korea, in an unusually blunt warning to North Korea after it tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that analysts said could reach Alaska.

No matter where you are, it seems everyone complains about inaccurate weather forecasts.

In 1954, The Times reported that meteorologists were asking the public for a better understanding of their complex work.

The Weatherman is tired of being the butt of a parade of stale jokes, the article read.

But thanks to satellites and ever more advanced data analysis, short-term predictions of three to five days have become remarkably accurate, notes Henry Fountain, a Times reporter who focuses on climate change and the environment.

He cautions, however, that longer-term forecasting, of several weeks to several months, remains more problematic.

These subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, as they are called, are critical for economies worldwide, helping farmers in Australia decide how much irrigation water theyll need, for example, or international shippers plan their routes. They also affect military and disaster planning.

European forecasts are often considered better than most, in part because European governments often devote more resources to them.

But the U.S. is trying to catch up. The government this spring enacted a law that prioritizes research to improve longer-term modeling.

Jennifer Jett contributed reporting.

_____

Photographs may appear out of order for some readers. Viewing this version of the briefing should help.

Your Morning Briefing is published weekdays at 6 a.m. Eastern and updated on the web all morning.

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Donald Trump, North Korea, Volvo: Your Thursday Briefing - New York Times

He insisted over the weekend, via Twitter, of course, that his conduct in office was "modern day presidential." And if ever there was a definition of what "modern day presidential" means to Trump, this news conference was it.

He attacked the media as "fake news." He refused to say definitively that Russia was behind the meddling into the 2016 election. He attacked former President Barack Obama for "choking" when confronted with intelligence regarding Russian hacking. (And yes, this is the same intelligence that Trump questioned and undermined when he refused to say that Russia was, without question, behind the hacking of the presidential election.)

In a speech following the news conference, Trump struck a far more statesman-like tone -- highlighting the long and proud history of the Polish people and the shared commitment to democracy from Poland and the United States. The difference? Trump largely stuck to the script of his speech. In the news conference, he free-wheeled far more.

And if you closed your eyes and just listened to Trump at the presser, you could easily imagine him speaking at one of his campaign rallies rather than in a foreign country. Bashing Obama. Bashing the media. And, most importantly, continuing to reject the conclusions of the FBI and the CIA that Russia was the prime mover in attempting to meddle in the 2016 election.

"I think it could very well could be Russia but I think it could very well have been other countries," Trump said during the news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda. "I think a lot of people interfere."

The problem here is that the intelligence community has spoken with a united voice that this was a Russian operation -- and, by all accounts, a very successful one.

In January, CIA Director Mike Pompeo said this: "It's pretty clear about what took place, about Russian involvement in efforts to hack information and have an impact on American democracy. It is something that America needs to take seriously."

Despite that conclusive evidence, Trump has been extremely circumspect about blaming Russia -- despite urgings from many in his party to do so. He ramped up that commitment to inconclusiveness on Thursday by voicing it not only in an international setting but doing so just one day before he is set to sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Germany.

Past presidents traveling abroad might have deflected the question, acknowledging that the press didn't always get it right but pivoting to a broader defense of the absolute necessity of a free and independent media.

Not Trump.

"I think what CNN did was unfortunate for them," he said. "As you know, they now have some pretty serious problems. They have been fake news for a long time. They have been covering me in a very dishonest way."

"What we want to see in the United States is honest, beautiful, free, but honest press. We want to see fair press. I think it is a very important thing. We don't want fake news. And by the way, not everybody is fake news. But we don't want fake news. Bad thing, very bad for our country."

That's Trump aggressively undermining the free press while in a country that has worked to stifle media dissent in recent years. That's truly remarkable.

Trump, time and again during the first six months (or so) of his presidency, has shown that he is already a president like none other that has come before him. Today's press conference in Poland may well be the single best example of just how different Trump really is and just how committed he is to accentuating rather than downplaying those differences.

Thursdays press conference was pure Trump. And pure "modern day presidential."

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Donald Trump just defined what being 'modern day presidential' president looks like - CNN

There are some problems that good chemistry just cant solve. At a surprisingly cheerful summit meeting at Mar-a-Lago in April, Chinese President Xi Jinping seemed to find Donald Trumps sweet spot. Xi said they cemented their mutual trust; Trump called Xi a terrific person and hailed their good chemistry together, predicting that lots of potentially bad problems will go away.

But one of those bad problems isnt going anywhere, and as a result, Trumps view of China is quickly turning sour. The reason for his dwindling patience is Beijings failure to rein in North Korean leader Kim Jong Uns nuclear program and escalating series of missile tests, the latest being an intercontinental ballistic missile that might someday carry a nuclear payload that could hit the continental United States. Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter, Trump tweeted on Wednesday. So much for China working with us - but we had to give it a try!

Story Continued Below

China seems not to have appreciated how fortunate it was that Trumps China policy has focused overwhelmingly on North Korea, rather than on its unfair trade and investment policies and its aggressive military expansion in the Asia-Pacific. For Chinas interests, this has meant free rein on most other issues of concernan extraordinary opportunity that it has squandered by not responding more effectively to what Trump wanted on this single front. Now, Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on China on multiple fronts at once.

Trump seems rightly to have determined that China isnt doing enough on North Korea.

Mondays missile test came months after the president tweeted that a North Korean ICBM wont happen on his watch. North Korea is destabilizing Asia and is now posing a pressing security threat to the U.S. itself. China has more leverage and must do more. So the Trump administration has rolled out various new measures that Beijing has deplored: secondary sanctions on a Chinese bank, shipping company and two company officials for involvement in money laundering to aid North Korea; a new $1.42 billion arms sale to Taiwan; more assertive naval operations in the South China Sea; and the high-level release of a State Department report accusing China of being one of the worst-offending countries on human trafficking.

The Chinese miscalculated with Trump in two ways related to North Korea. First, China failed to take significant concrete steps for which Trump could claim credit. Chinas announced suspension of coal imports from North Korea, a substantial punishment of North Korea, took place before the Mar-a-Lago summit and in response to United Nations resolutionsand this is a president who needs to be able to take personal credit for concrete things.

On this score, what should China have done, and would that have made a difference? Lets simply take the case of the sanctions the U.S. has just imposed on two Chinese entities for pro-North Korean money laundering. We must assume China was informed about the specific U.S. concerns related to these institutions and given information to support those concerns. So informed, China should have stepped up and gone after those companies itself.

The two entities are small, so China would not have lost face by cracking down on them. Most important, going after them would not have brought into play Chinas most fundamental strategic concern regarding North Korea: that tightening the screws enough to freeze its nuclear program and bring it to the bargaining table would jeopardize the survival of what Beijing views as a buffer state. The unusual step of going after some Chinese nationals for money laundering that helps finance North Korea would have responded to Trumps overtures at little cost to China and demonstrated that China was prepared to put new pressure on the North Korean regime.

The second Chinese miscalculation was to assume that Trump would be patient in waiting for concrete steps and results from China on North Korea. One of Chinas finest international relations scholars, Professor Shi Yinhong, was quoted the other day as saying, The latest situation [has] illustrated that Trump is a leader without patience. Indeed. But this lesson should have been learned long ago. Not only has Trump said repeatedly that the era of strategic patience with the North Korean regime has failedhe is characteristically an impatient person. Chinese diplomats are exquisitely skilled in tactics of delay, but the more valuable skill in dealing with Trump is managing his impatience.

So Beijing misread Trump. But since North Koreas July 4 missile test prompted a Trump tweet still holding out the prospect that China would make a heavy move on Pyongyang, perhaps Beijing will see an opportunity to correct its blunder. Trump has repeatedly signaled that his patience with China is wearing thin, yet he appears to have no viable alternative to demanding that Xi bring Kim to heel. The two leaders may have an opportunity to clarify matters on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Hamburg.

It is certainly not a happy thing to see U.S.-China relations becoming more tensethese, after all, are the two most powerful countries in the world. For the sake of the world, to say nothing of the two countries, it is essential the U.S.-China relationship be as positive as possible, maximizing cooperation and managing differences. But the Chinese blunder that produced this tension is not necessarily a bad thing for U.S. interests. By giving China a mostly free pass on everything but North Korea, Trump was not giving enough attention to other issues in the U.S.-China relationship that need U.S. pushbackfor example, the lack of reciprocity in trade and investment and Chinas ever-expanding activity in the South China Sea. Quite apart from North Korea, the central challenge of U.S.-China relations must be addressed: Can the United States coexist peacefully with an increasingly powerful China?

The Trump administration should be wrestling with the full range of China challenges. Even though one fears clumsy and needlessly provocative actions when this administration turns to significant issues, that cannot excuse inattention. A broader China policy will, of course, require administration officials to deal with the relationships great complexities, which Trump has shoved to the side. But this may also allow them to set the U.S.-China relationship on a more sustainable and realistic path.

Paul Gewirtz is the Potter Stewart Professor of Constitutional Law at Yale Law School and is also the Director of Yale Law Schools Paul Tsai China Center.

Originally posted here:
How China Misread Donald Trump - POLITICO Magazine

President Donald Trump has voiced pride over the stock market gains in the United States, but his math for those gains is quite a bit off.

In a speech he gave to the Three Seas Initiative in Warsaw, Polanda group of countries committed to improving economic ties between the United States and ex-Communist countriesTrump pointed to the stock market when explaining that the U.S. is doing "very wellvery strong." He said: "We've taken off restrictions and people are really moving hard. So when I say that the stock market is at an all-time high, we've picked up in market value almost $4 trillion since November 8th, which was the election. $4 trillionit's a lot of money."

While the stock market has hit multiple new highs since November, thanks in part to a "Trump Bump" stemming from the president's promise to lower corporate taxes and roll back regulations, it's not as high as Trump may think. His speech suggests the market value for the S&P 500 is now about $22.4 trillion, up roughly 22% since the elections. But in reality, the S&P 500 has gained roughly $2.4 trillion in that time period, an increase of 13% in market cap to reach $20.8 trillion, said Howard Silverblatt, a veteran market watcher over at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

It's not a poor performance, but it is certainly less than the president's $4 trillion figure.

It could be that Trump rounded up the market value for the S&P 500 by about $1.6 trillionroughly the value of two Apple companies.

Or perhaps he was referring to another stock market index entirely. The S&P 500 is one of the many indexes that measure stock markets, and it only looks at U.S.-traded stocks.

For example, the S&P Developed Markets BMI looks at developed markets, including those in the U.K., France, and Germanywhich were actually effected to an extent by Trump's election. Global markets rallied over Trump's pro-business stance after his election victory. They also retreated after news of former FBI Director James Comey's memo.

But according to Silverblatt's data, developed markets have gained $5.2 trillion since Trump won. That means if Trump did consider both U.S. and the gains of other developed markets, he actually rounded down by about $1 trillion.

Even when looking at other indexes measuring stock marketsthe Russell 2000, the S&P United States BMI, the Non-U.S. BMI, and the S&P Emerging BMIthey are each still at least $1 trillion off. The source of Trump $4 trillion figure, then, remains unclear.

What we do know is that the figure is consistent with earlier claims Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross made on CNBC .

"That's the whole package that President Trump was elected on, and it's the whole package that's driven the stock market to $4 trillion of gains since the election," he said, referencing the president's position on taxes, regulation, and businesses. When Ross made the comment, markets were in fact lower than they were on Wednesday.

Continue reading here:
President Trump Claimed the Stock Market Has Added $4 Trillion in Value Since His Election. It Hasn't - Fortune

And Mr. Trump is set to deliver a major speech at the site of the Warsaw Uprising during World War II. Check back throughout the day for more coverage of his trip.

Separately, an American congressmans video calling for stronger antiterrorism measures, filmed at a gas chamber at Auschwitz in Poland, drew a rebuke from the former extermination camps museum. He retracted the video.

_____

President Xi Jinping of China will also be in Hamburg, ready to slip into the widening gap between Mr. Trump and Americas longtime European allies and to position Beijing as a defender of a multilateral, rules-based world order.

Mr. Xi was already in Germany for a state visit, where all eyes were on the two new pandas at Berlins zoo and his friendly meetings with Chancellor Angela Merkel. (Above, the two watching a soccer match.)

There was less focus on Liu Xiaobo, the Chinese Nobel Peace laureate. China agreed to allow doctors from Germany and other countries to see him for his late-stage cancer, but ignored pleas for treatment abroad.

_____

The European Union and Japan are set to commit to a free trade deal. A political agreement on the accord could be signed by leaders in Brussels today.

We ironed out the few remaining differences, Cecilia Malmstrom, the E.U.s trade commissioner, said. But it is unclear whether details in contentious areas such as dairy products have been addressed.

Today, the European Space Agency will provide details on its joint mission with Japan to Mercury, set to depart from Earth next year and to reach the distant planet by 2025.

_____

The geopolitical feud between Qatar and Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, looks set to stretch further into the summer.

As Saudi Arabia accuses Qatar of spreading Islamist extremism, British politicians are debating whether the Saudis themselves may deserve more of the blame.

In Syria, Russia is rewarding security contractors with oil and mineral rights in territory they secure from the Islamic State.

_____

North Korea has tested a missile that could potentially hit Alaska. The U.S. responded with a military drill in the Korean Peninsula and urged for tougher United Nations sanctions against the country.

Self-restraint is the only thing stopping the U.S. and South Korea from going to war with the North so says the highest-ranking American general on the peninsula.

We examined war plans drafted in preparation for a potential military confrontation. Even a surgical U.S. strike would risk staggering casualties.

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Volvo, the Sweden-based automaker owned by Geely of China, said that it would introduce only hybrid or electric models starting in 2019. Thats a first for a mainstream car company.

Minutes of the Federal Reserves June meeting revealed a debate over how quickly the Fed should begin to reduce its securities portfolio.

Technology stocks and exchange-traded funds are ever more popular, putting traditional mutual fund managers on the defensive.

Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines and other carriers said that an American ban on carry-on laptops on their U.S.-bound flights has been lifted.

Heres a snapshot of global markets.

Simone Veil, a former French health minister who died last week at 89, will be one of the few women laid to rest in the Panthon, which holds many of Frances most revered figures. Here, in French, are her sons tributes at military honors in Paris. [LObs]

Suspects in the downing of a Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine three years ago will be tried in a Dutch court, but a possible extradition from Russia appears unlikely. [The New York Times]

The Vaticans offer to treat Charlie Gard, a terminally ill British infant, has highlighted the churchs views on end-of-life care. But doctrine isnt clear-cut. [The New York Times]

We discussed President Trumps denunciations of CNN with the networks president. The level of threats against employees has spiked this year, he said. [The New York Times]

Tips, both new and old, for a more fulfilling life.

Stereotypically macho messages limit childrens understanding of what it means to be a father, a man and a boy.

Yotam Ottolenghi, the Israeli-British chef, suggests blueberry, almond and lemon cake as the perfect companion to a cup of tea.

At Wimbledon, Petra Kvitova faltered, and millions of flying ants invaded the courts for mating season. Heres todays match schedule.

Lionel Messi extended his contract with Barcelona until 2021, ending speculation that he could be tempted to leave.

Game of Thrones returns July 16. We caught up with Lena Headey, who plays Cersei Lannister, at her home in West Yorkshire, England. (She was guarded about plot twists.)

Carmen is perhaps one of the most overdone operas. But Dmitri Tcherniakov, the experimental director, refreshed it for the Aix Festival in southern France with new spoken dialogue.

Finally, around the Arctic Circle during the summer, many living things have reasons to celebrate twilight replacing the night. Only humans and dew worms end up cranky.

No matter where you are, it seems everyone complains about inaccurate weather forecasts.

In 1954, The Times reported that meteorologists were asking the public for a better understanding of their complex work.

The Weatherman is tired of being the butt of a parade of stale jokes, the article read.

But thanks to satellites and ever more advanced data analysis, short-term predictions of three to five days have become remarkably accurate, said Henry Fountain, a Times reporter focused on climate change and the environment.

He cautions, however, that longer-term forecasting, of several weeks to several months, remains more problematic.

These subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, as they are called, are critical for economies worldwide, helping farmers in Australia decide how much irrigation water theyll need, for example, or international shippers plan their routes. They also affect military and disaster planning.

European forecasts are often considered better than most, in part because European governments often devote more resources to them.

But the U.S. is trying to catch up. The government this spring enacted a law that prioritizes research to improve longer-term modeling.

Jennifer Jett contributed reporting.

_____

This briefing was prepared for the European morning. We also have briefings timed for the Australian, Asian and American mornings. You can sign up for these and other Times newsletters here.

Your Morning Briefing is published weekday mornings and updated online.

What would you like to see here? Contact us at europebriefing@nytimes.com.

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G-20, Donald Trump, Wimbledon: Your Thursday Briefing - New York Times