New York Times | Donald Trump's Parrot New York Times We are not yet worrying about what our parrots might blurt out in Donald Trump's America. But there are disturbing signs. This presidency is about the fear-driven closing of borders and minds. In his magisterial novel Humboldt's Gift, Saul Bellow ... |
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Donald Trump's Parrot - New York Times
President Trump shakes hands with Jay Timmons, president and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, during a meeting at the White House on Friday.
Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images
On Friday, President Donald Trump gathered a group of executives and business owners at the White House in order to tout a new sentiment report from the National Association of Manufacturers: According to the report, a record 93.3 percent of manufacturers are positive about their own companys outlook. Thats close to unanimous, and its up from 78 percent in December and up from only 61 percent in the third quarter of 2016. Some 60 percent of the manufacturers surveyed believe the country is on the right track, up from a pathetic 26 percent in December.
Thats not the only measure of sentiment thats on the rise. Positive home-builder sentiment has risen from 63 percent in October to 71 percent in Februarya level not seen since the housing boom of 10 years ago. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, rose sharply in March.
These sugar highs are especially striking because not that much has changed in the real economy so far this year. Durable goods orders are up 1.7 percent (meh!) in the first two months of 2017 from last year, a rate of change that normally wouldnt elate manufacturers. In the first two months of 2017, new home sales grew at a slower rate than they did for all of 2016. Employment and wages are growing at roughly the same rate they were in late 2016.
What gives? Trump, obviously. The conditions havent changed, but expectations have. If youre a manufacturer or a builder or a worker and you think the man in charge is going to work with Congress to cut your taxes and regulations on the business, thus making you more wealthy, then the mood shift makes sense. Especially when the guy hes replacing was an anti-business ogre who wanted to raise taxes.
But I think theres something more visceral at work that has less to do with policy and everything to do with the metric that these surveys measure: sentiment. Our feelings about business mirror the bipolarity of our politics: Its all sunshine when the person with whom one identifies is in charge and gloom and doom when he (or, in this case, she) is not. I am surely not the only one who knows people who have sunk into deep funks since Novembers election even though there was no material change to their financial, social, or economic circumstances. And the same factors that turned many smug Democrats into depressives in November have elated many Republicans.
The surge in optimism among Republicans has not been matched by a surge in pessimism among Democrats.
But as with so many other things, this partisan economic bipolarization is asymmetric. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index plunged into negative territory during the recession of 200809 but barely budged into positive territory during the Obama years. And yet it spiked sharply into the positive territory after the election and has remained there ever since. That is almost entirely because Republicans instantly surged from depressed to psyched. As Gallup noted, During the Obama years, Republicans were deeply pessimistic about the state of the economywith weekly U.S. economic confidence often in the negative 40s, 50s and even 60s. It stood at -43 the week before the 2016 election. With Trump in office and Republicans in control of Congress, their confidence is nearly 100 points higher+46 last week, for instance. The surge in optimism among Republicans, however, has not been matched by a surge in pessimism among Democrats. Hence the net growth in these sentiment indexes.
This asymmetric polarization is evident when you survey the opinions of groups of people who are disproportionately Republican-leaning, like homebuilders or manufacturers. Homebuilders have plenty of reason to feel good. But in the past few months, significant challenges have emerged: Interest rates are rising, land is getting more expensive, and they cant find people to do the work. Theres talk of getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction, which would be very bad indeed for business. Yet their giddiness has surged in the past few months to heights not seen since the latest housing boom. The same holds for manufacturers, who have gone from feeling so-so before the election to feeling elated in its aftermath.
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"... a record 93.3 percent of manufacturers are positive about their own companys outlook." Time to sell. More...
The issue with sentiment indices is that they measure what people are feeling and saying, not what they are actually doing. A recent report form Morgan Stanley highlighted the remarkable divergence between soft indicators like sentiment and hard indicators like actual economic data that has emerged in the past few months. Again, this is Trumps work. The former show an economy poised to rocket to the moon after eight years of expansion. The latter point to continuing muddling at a low growth rate. They cant both be right.
The reality, of course, is that very little has changed in the economy under Trump and that the new power arrangement has yet to enact any legislation that is good for businesses on the whole. In the meantime, actions taken by the administration have been bad for many particular businesses and industries, like travel and tourism, or anyone who depends on trade. The big question, for now, is what it will take to send all those sentiments southward.
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Why Are Businesses Still So Giddy About Donald Trump? - Slate Magazine
For months, one of the firmest bases of Trump support online has been the /r/the_donald community on Reddit, a sometimes-embattled community drawn together to cheer on Donald Trump first as a candidate, and now as president. But with the Trump administration making its first moves to roll back FCC privacy restrictions on internet service providers, some in that community are having second thoughts.
How does this help Americans, the forgotten man?, one user asked in a recent post discussing the resolution. How does this improve the economy? How does it make America great in any way? It's special interest swamp bullshit and Trump signing this would be the first thing he's done as president to disappoint me.
Is there any way we can get God Emperor and his advisers to veto this?
The thread opened with a reasonable summary of this weeks joint resolution, asking users what they thought of the changes. Despite the forums reputation for unruly behavior, the disagreements remained civil, with some supporting the free-market arguments for deregulation, while others saw it as a betrayal of the presidents populist-focused campaign.
Some held out hope that Trump might veto the bill, something analysts see as highly unlikely. Trump isn't attached to this, wrote a user called MichiganMaga313. This bill is Congressional. This bill is dangerous Neo Con bullshit right here. Let Trump know that you hate this and to veto it.
Is there any way we can get god emperor and his advisers to veto this? another asked. I guess this'll be a test to see if he is a real populist after all.
Reddit has a long history of mobilizing in response to moves against privacy and net neutrality, most notably in the SOPA fight of 2012. Even as reactionary or anti-feminist movements have gained more power on the platform, those general views have held firm making Trumps latest pro-ISP moves particularly awkward for some.
Even users who supported the move saw it as politically dangerous, particularly as President Trumps popularity reaches record lows. Internet privacy is the new third rail of politics, wrote a user called Islam-Delenda-Est. Taking it away looks worse than Medicare cuts, even if it is completely harmless and justified.
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The Donald Trump subreddit has mixed feelings about gutted internet privacy rules - The Verge
New York Times | Donald Trump, 'Brexit,' Mosul: Your Wednesday Briefing - The New ... New York Times Prime Minister Theresa May signed a letter of notification in London on Tuesday, officially setting out Britain's intention to withdraw from the European Union. |
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Donald Trump, 'Brexit,' Mosul: Your Wednesday Briefing - The New ... - New York Times
New York Times | California Today: Muslim Candidate Says He's 'Triple Threat to Donald Trump' New York Times The divisive and hateful agenda of Donald Trump compels me to run, Dr. Mahmood said Tuesday in an interview. I am a proud Muslim. I am a Muslim immigrant. I am from the state of California. I am a triple threat to Donald Trump. Dr. Mahmood will ... |
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California Today: Muslim Candidate Says He's 'Triple Threat to Donald Trump' - New York Times