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For the past week or so, weve been hostage to another strange Trumpnews cycle, a flashback to the many we lived through in the half dozen years between his escalator ride at Trump Tower to his helicopter exit from the White House. For a while, it looked likeDonald Trump was out of our lives and retreating to his own Palm Elba. Now all of a sudden everything is 2016 again and were glued to CNN news alerts.

After initialreports of possible charges in theStormy Daniels hush money case, the Trump arrest news cycle truly kicked into gear early on the morningof March 18 with post on Truth Social: THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK! Two hours later, a spokesmansaid the former president had not written his post with direct knowledge of the timing of any arrest, while adding, President Trump is rightfully highlighting his innocence and the weaponization of our injustice system.

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But it didnt matter that Trumps spokesman seemed to walk back Trumps truth, as posts on his Truth Social platform are ironically called, or that TUESDAY (March 21) came and went with no indictment from the Manhattan DAs office. (The grand jury isreportedly meeting again Monday.) None of those things mattered, as Trump, yet again, hijacked the news cyclethis time by announcing his impending arrest. AsThe New YorkersSusan Glasserwrote of this chaotic moment: The political classs collective capacity for analyzing and digesting events that have not yet occurred, which still might not occur, and whose details are presumably crucial to understanding how they will play out, was on full display.

Here we get to the central dilemma of covering Trump. By virtue of the fact he was president, and is currently leading the 2024 Republican pack, much of what Trump says and does is arguably newsworthy. But Trump is at besta bad actor and at worst a complete sociopath, known toflood the zone with shit in the immortal words ofSteve Bannon. So the idea that we, in the media, should take his word for it when he makes some wild claim seems at best misguided.

Though it would be impossible to ignore a pending indictment of a former president, could the breathless, nonstop indictment watch have been avoided? Theoretically, yes? But there is a muscle memory many of us have from covering Trump, a kind of Stockholm syndrome from the constant nonstop flood of news. And its easy to fall back into old patterns.

Trump, as president, was an assignment editor from hell, driving a news cycle over everything from preposterous ideas, likebuying Greenland, to terrifying ones, likebombing North Korea. By virtue of the fact that Trump was president, his tweets, his utterances, and his weird foibles led to countless headlines and cable news chyrons. Just as Trump was able to reclaim his role as assignment editor, another familiar story emerged: Republicans holding themselves hostage to Trump.

The GOP was presented with yet another opportunity to decouple itself from the albatross that had significantly cost their party in three straight elections. But instead of using a possible indictment as a way to rid themselves of the former guy, Republicans have been literally falling all over each other to defend him, despite not being sure what, if any, charges will be filed. House SpeakerKevin McCarthywarnedof politically motivated prosecutions, while Republican defenders hit airwaves.

On CNNs State of the Union, Kentucky congressman and frequent Trump defenderJames Comerwasnt surewhat he was defending Trump from on Sunday morning, but he seemed sure Trump was innocent. Are you arguing that people who commit business crimes are not committing crimes? asked CNNsJake Tapper. Is this a business crime? Were talking about a federal election crime, Comer responded. My understanding, Tapper said, is that hes being investigated for falsifying business records.

The Republican rush to defend Trump was so deeply embarrassing youd think it might have led to a moment of GOP introspection. But alas, the crew that is always soworried about the weaponization of the federal government used its power in Congress to target Manhattan DAAlvin Bragg even as his office has yet to charge Trump with anything. Comer and another Fox News frequent flier,Jim Jordan, wrote to Bragg: You are reportedly about to engage in anunprecedented abuse of prosecutorial authority. With Trump fully in the media spotlight, and Republicans rallying behind him, even critics acknowledged how the former president could benefit. This indictment is a billion dollar gift-in-kind from Democrats to Trumps 24 campaign, former representativePeter Meijertweeted.

Trump reportedly raised$1.5 million over his indictment in just three days and has enjoyeda polling bump (whileRon DeSantiss recentperformance on the national stagehas worried GOP donors). Never one to let a possible scandal go unexploited, Trump used the potential indictment as a centerpiece of his Waco, Texas, rally on Saturday,telling the crowd: You will be vindicated and proud. The thugs and criminals who are corrupting our justice system will be defeated, discredited, and totally disgraced. At one point, Trumpput his hand on his heart during the playing of a rendition of the national anthem as sung by theJ6 Choir, a group of imprisoned rioters, while behind him a large screen played footage from the insurrection at the Capitol. The weekend rally also happened to coincide with the30th anniversary of the government standoff in Waco with doomsday sect the Branch Davidians.

Trumps stance of being anti-anyone-who-doesnt-support-him was pretty clear to anyone watching. As I write this, Trump still hasnt been indicted but he has used the threat of any possible consequences for his actions to once again become the main character of the news cycle. Heseven slated to return Monday night to Fox News, a recent target of his ire due to its glowing DeSantis coverage. It seems very likely that Trump can parlay this main-character status into another GOP presidential nomination. Like global warming, Trump is on the horizon again and it feels like we are powerless to stop it.

Originally posted here:
Donald Trump Has Hijacked the News Cycle With Indictment Watch - Vanity Fair

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WACO Flanked by supporters waving witch hunt signs, former President Donald Trump turned in a signature incendiary performance Saturday in Waco, using his first 2024 campaign rally to frame himself as a victim of politicized legal investigations and vowing to be the MAGA movements retribution.

"I am your warrior, I am your justice, Trump said in a nearly 90-minute speech, most of it focused on perceived political enemies and slights. For those who have been wronged and betrayed I am your retribution."

Trump positioned himself as the sole protector of American values, painting a grim future if he is denied a second four-year term.

I will prevent World War III, which were heading into, Trump said to a crowd of thousands gathered on the tarmac of the Waco Regional Airport.

If returned to the White House, Trump promised to conduct the largest deportation operation in the nations history by increasing the number of border enforcement officers. Trump also pledged to reinstate Title 42, an emergency health order he initiated at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic that has been used to turn away migrants, including asylum seekers, from the southern border since March 2020. The Biden administration plans to end the national pandemic-era public health order, and thus Title 42, in May.

Trump also vowed to end Russias invasion of Ukraine within a day of beginning his next administration. Though he praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a smart person, he said the invasion would have never have happened had he been president. He also predicted that Russia would eventually take over Ukraine.

Trump echoed recent criticisms hes made against his most likely competition in the Republican presidential primaries, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis has not yet declared his candidacy.

Trump claimed credit for DeSantis political rise after endorsing him in the 2018 governors race but said Florida has been in decline in the years since, due largely to DeSantis decision to close some public facilities at the onset of the pandemic.

When Trump wasn't positioning himself as the savior of American freedom, he cast himself as the victim of politicized attacks, particularly an investigation in New York into alleged hush payments made to an adult film star.

This is really prosecutorial misconduct. The innocence of people makes no difference whatsoever to these radical left maniacs, Trump said of the investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. It is worse actually in my opinion hard to believe anything can be worse than this worse than ballot stuffing.

Rick Taylor drove two hours from Comanche to see Trump speak and said he wasnt disappointed, agreeing that Democratic control of the White House had to be prevented at all costs.

Trump is the man for the hour. Hes the only man who can take on Washington in the times that we live in, Taylor said. Trump needs to dredge out the swamp with a bulldozer.

Like Trump who made dire predictions about the fate of America should he lose in 2024 Taylor said the country would be unrecognizable if Democrats were to win the next election.

The most vocal response from the crowd came when Trump called to keep men out of womens sports, which has become an increasingly popular issue among conservatives who say that transgender women competing in female athletics is taking opportunities away from women.

In 2021, the Texas Legislature banned transgender students from competing in public school sports that do not align with their gender at birth. This year, conservative lawmakers hope to extend that ban to university athletics.

The crowd also roared in approval when Trump pledged to abolish critical race theory from Americas schools. CRT is a university-level area of study asserting that structural racism has been baked into American institutions.

We cant wait to welcome you Sept. 21-23 to the 2023 Texas Tribune Festival, our multiday celebration of big, bold ideas about politics, public policy and the days news all taking place just steps away from the Texas Capitol. When tickets go on sale in May, Tribune members will save big. Donate to join or renew today.

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Donald Trump vows retribution at first 2024 presidential rally in Waco - The Texas Tribune

Donald Trump has an unparalleled ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

He proved that again last week as he took positions that worked against him both personally and politically

The Donald began the week predicting that he would be arrested on Tuesday on charges that he paid off a porn star to keep quiet concerning an assignation that happened way back in 2006.

Thats not the sort of thing that most politicians like to advertise. Most would shut up and trust their lawyers to find technical reasons to get the charges thrown out.

The prosecution was based on a convoluted legal theory that might not have held up in court, said Andrew Napolitano, a former Bergen County Superior Court judge and media commentator.

But that didnt stop Trump from giving Prosecutor Alvin Bragg what he needs to make a strong case against him on a different charge, Napolitano said.

Trump can expect another count to be added, Napolitano said. Thats threatening a prosecutor.

That threat came when Trump posted on his website a photo of him holding a baseball bat aimed at photo of Bragg.

That post was taken down in a few hours. But Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina was left with the task of defending it on Meet the Press Sunday.

Tacopina called the post ill-advised and added, Im not his social media consultant.

No, Trumps social media consultant is Trump. And with that post he handed the prosecution evidence that is likely to pop up at Trumps bail hearing if he is arrested, said Napolitano.

A posting like this strikes terror in the belly of a trial lawyer because he knows hes going to be standing next to his client in court, said Napolitano. He can be held without bail as long as the defendant has the present apparent ability to carry out that threat.

Trump could do so through social media, and a judge might be tempted to order him not to go online, Napolitano said.

In Trumps case, ordering him off the internet would be a plus. That Manhattan case wasnt the only possible prosecution Trump screwed up last week. At his Saturday rally in Waco, Texas, Trump posted photos of his supporters who were jailed because of their role in attacking the capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Trumps defense has been that he didnt incite the rioters. But by taking their side he seemed to be goading the prosecutors who will be deciding whether to indict him on federal charges.

But the strangest event of the week came when the Trump team released a February 2018 letter to the Federal Election Commission from his then-lawyer, Stephen Ryan, concerning the actions of his prior lawyer, Michael Cohen.

In that letter, Ryan wrote that Trump did not reimburse Cohen for the $130,000 in hush money Cohen gave to porn star Stormy Daniels aka Stephanie Clifford in 2016.

Neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump campaign was a party to the transaction with Ms. Clifford, and neither reimbursed Mr. Cohen for the payment directly or indirectly, said the attorney, who represented Cohen at the time.

The Donald posted this as proof that he didnt reimburse Cohen for the $130,000 he gave to Daniels. Or in other words, Trump was saying that he stiffed Cohen.

If he stiffed him that would be nothing new, according to one Atlantic City lawyer who is among the many contractors The Donald stiffed back in his casino days.

It wouldnt be the first time he stiffed someone, said Seth Grossman.

In Cohens case, he took out a home-equity loan to get the $130,000 he gave to Daniels. If Trump is telling the truth in this latest post, then he hung Cohen out to dry not just with that debt but with the time he spent in prison.

That wasnt the only dumb thing Trump did last week. In Waco, he devoted a good chunk of his speech to attacking a fellow Republican, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That didnt go over well, according to reports covering the event. The headline on Yahoo News was Trump tried to mock Ron DeSantis at his Texas rally. He was met with mostly silence from the audience.

Perhaps thats because the audience members didnt care for attacks on a guy whos in the best position to win the Republican nomination in 2024 if Trump keeps this up.

Many Democrats would prefer that Trump get the GOP nomination. They argue that hed be easier to beat.

I saw one liberal blogger writing that no one in the Republican Party can defeat Trump.

Well, I know of one Republican who can defeat Trump. Thats Trump.

Last week he did his level best.

More: Recent Paul Mulshine columns.

Paul Mulshine may be reached at pmulshine@starledger.com.

Follow him on Twitter @Mulshine. Find NJ.com Opinion on Facebook and on Twitter

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For Donald Trump, that was the week that wasnt | Mulshine - NJ.com

Case type: CriminalWhere: U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Prosecutor: Jack Smith, DOJ special counselWhen: Unclear

Perhaps the biggest case of all, the Justice Department has been investigating a variety of plots that intersected with Trump in relation to the lead-up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol. One such plot was the scheme to send fake electors from the states to Congress on January 6, 2021, in order to declare Trump as the phony winner of the election. Smiths office has issued subpoenas to election officials in key states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Another plot involves how Trump and his inner circle sought to pressure his vice-president, Mike Pence, to stop Congress from certifying Bidens victory that day. There is also the question of how exactly Trump fit into the violence that unfolded at the Capitol after he urged his supporters to march there during his speech at the Ellipse. On Friday afternoon, Smiths office scored a huge victory in court when a judge ruled that several members of the Trump administration, including former chief of staff Mark Meadows, must comply with a subpoena for grand-jury testimony.

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What Are the Legal Cases Against Donald Trump? - New York Magazine

Secretive talks in the waning days of a campaign. Furtive phone calls. Ardent public denials.

American history is full of October surprises late revelations, sometimes engineered by an opponent, that shock the trajectory of a presidential election and that candidates dread. In 1880, a forged letter ostensibly written by James A. Garfield claimed he wanted more immigration from China, a position so unpopular it nearly cost him the election. Weeks before the 1940 election, Franklin D. Roosevelts press secretary kneed a Black police officer in the groin, just as the president was trying to woo skeptical Black voters. (Roosevelts response made history: He appointed the first Black general and created the Tuskegee Airmen.)

But the scandal that has ensnared Donald J. Trump, the paying of hush money to a pornographic film star in 2016, is in a rare class: an attempt not to bring to light an election-altering event, but to suppress one.

The payoff to Stormy Daniels that has a Manhattan grand jury weighing criminal charges against Mr. Trump can trace its lineage to at least two other episodes foiling an October surprise. The first was in 1968, when aides to Richard M. Nixon pressed the South Vietnamese government to thwart peace talks in the closing days of that election. The second was in 1980. Fresh revelations have emerged that allies of Ronald Reagan may well have labored to delay the release of American hostages from Iran until after the defeat of Jimmy Carter.

The tortured debate over precisely which election law might have been violated in 2016 is missing the broader point all three events might have changed the course of history.

There have been three cases at a minimum, said Gary Sick, a former national security aide to President Carter who for more than two decades has been pursuing his case that the Reagan campaign in 1980 delayed the release of the hostages from Iran. And if you had the stomach for it, youd have to say it worked.

The potential criminal charges against Mr. Trump for his role in the passing of hush money to Ms. Daniels falsifying business records to cover up the payment and a possible election law violation may seem trivial when compared to the prior efforts to fend off a history-altering October surprise.

This month, a former lieutenant governor of Texas came forward to say that he accompanied a Reagan ally to the Middle East to try to delay the release of American hostages from Iran until after the 1980 election. And notes discovered in 2016 appeared to confirm that senior aides to Mr. Nixon worked through back channels in 1968 to hinder the commencement of peace talks to end the war in Vietnam and secure Mr. Nixons victory over Hubert H. Humphrey.

Hold on, Anna Chennault, Mr. Nixons emissary to the South Vietnamese, told Saigon government officials, as she pressed them to boycott the Paris peace talks. We are gonna win.

But the chicaneries of 1968 and 1980 were left to historians and partisans to sort out and debate decades later. What separates the allegations against Mr. Trump is that they could make him the first former president to be indicted by a grand jury, forcing him to answer for charges in a court of law.

The concept of an October surprise has been around American politics since at least 1838, when federal prosecutors announced plans to charge top Whig Party officials with most stupendous and atrocious fraud for paying Pennsylvanians to vote in New York for their candidates.

Two weeks before the 1888 election, Republicans published a letter from the British ambassador to the United States suggesting that the English favored Grover Cleveland, the Democratic candidate. It galvanized Irish American voters, and Mr. Cleveland lost the presidency to Benjamin Harrison.

Just days before the 2000 election, Thomas J. Connolly, a defense lawyer and former Democratic candidate for governor in Maine, confirmed that George W. Bush had been arrested for driving while intoxicated in the state in 1976. Some have said it cost Mr. Bush just enough votes to turn a narrow popular-vote victory into one of the most contested presidential elections in American history.

What links the allegations of 1968, 1980 and 2016 is the fear that such a surprise would happen. In all three cases, those accused of perpetrating the skulduggery palpably worried that it would.

How Times reporters cover politics.We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

It is probably as old as campaigning itself, said John Dean, the Nixon White House lawyer whose testimony before the congressional Watergate committees helped bring to light perhaps the most famous campaign dirty trick of all time. Im sure that when campaigns learn of negative stories, they do all they can to suppress them.

The accusations against Mr. Trump are of a different scale than 1968 or 1980. No Americans were left to languish in captivity. No armies remained on the battlefield longer than necessary. No civilians died in napalm conflagrations. Indeed, the passing of hush money to Ms. Daniels is hardly the worst accusation leveled against a president who was impeached for withholding military aid to Ukraine to extract a political favor, and impeached again for inciting a riot designed to overturn a lawful election that he lost.

But because the 2016 election was so close, the suppression of a late-breaking sex scandal just may have delivered the White House to one of American historys most divisive leaders. Mr. Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, and won the presidency by securing victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined 78,652 votes, a smaller total than a sellout crowd at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

Mr. Trumps opponent, Hillary Clinton, suffered her own surprise when just days before the 2016 election, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, reopened a closed investigation into emails she sent on a private server when she was secretary of state. Given the margin, that alone may have cost Mrs. Clinton the White House.

Ms. Danielss claim that she had sex with Mr. Trump in 2006 while his wife, Melania, was nursing their only baby had been floating around since 2011, seemingly raising few fears in Trump world. But in early October 2016, that changed when The Washington Post published the Access Hollywood tape, in which Mr. Trump described in lewd terms how he groped women.

Amid the ensuing furor and defections from some Republican leaders, the effort to buy Ms. Danielss silence went into overdrive. Mr. Trumps personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, and others feared that a second punch, landing just after the Access Hollywood outrage was dissipating, could knock their pugilistic boss out of the presidential race and expose them to legal action.

It could look awfully bad for everyone, Dylan Howard, the editor of The National Enquirer, wrote in a text to Mr. Cohen, noting that if Ms. Daniels went public, their work to cover up her account of a sexual encounter might also become known.

The 1980 election is remembered as a landslide victory, hardly one that seemed vulnerable to a late-breaking course change. But in fact, aides and allies of Mr. Reagan openly feared the release of the hostages in the campaigns final weeks could re-elect Mr. Carter, so much so that the term October surprise is often attributed to the Reagan camps trepidations.

All I know is theres concern, not just with us but I think generally amongst the electorate, well, this Carters a politically tough fellow, hell do anything to get re-elected, and lets be prepared for some October surprise, Mr. Reagans running mate, George H.W. Bush, said at the time.

Gerald Rafshoon, who was Mr. Carters White House communications director and campaign media adviser, said in an interview that he was confident the release of the hostages would have secured the presidents re-election. The polls had been tightening that fall amid rising optimism about the captives release. Then Mr. Carters position collapsed.

If the little farmer cant handle a two-bit ayatollah, Mr. Rafshoon recalled one woman telling him, Ill take my chances on the cowboy.

He added: Its not that I hold any grudges about those sons of bitches. Ive gotten on with my life, and so has Jimmy.

Mr. Sick is not so sure a hostage release would have had much impact. It would certainly have changed some votes, but would Carter have won? He only won one state, he said. People who run campaigns get very paranoid and talk themselves into these things.

The election of 1968 is a closer call.

Ken Hughes, a researcher at the Miller Center of the University of Virginia, whose book Chasing Shadows chronicled the Nixon campaigns efforts to impede peace talks, said Mr. Nixon had a strong lead in the polls over Mr. Humphrey in mid-September. By mid-October, Mr. Nixons lead was down to eight percentage points. Then, days before the election, President Lyndon B. Johnson ordered a halt to the bombing of North Vietnam, and the news media began reporting chatter of looming talks to end the war.

Again, the candidate who went on to win showed his fears, which were based on Mr. Nixons conviction that Democratic dirty tricks in 1960 had denied him the presidency. Keep Anna Chennault working on SVN, or South Vietnam, Mr. Nixon implored, according to the notes of a top aide, H.R. Haldeman.

On the eve of the election, The Christian Science Monitor was preparing an article on the efforts of the Nixon campaign to thwart the peace talks. Mr. Johnson convened a conference call with his security cabinet to seek advice on whether to confirm the story, which he knew to be true from F.B.I. and C.I.A. wiretaps.

Some elements of the story are so shocking in their nature that Im wondering whether it would be good for the country to disclose the story and then possibly have a certain individual elected, his secretary of defense, Clark Clifford, said of Mr. Nixon on a recorded call. It could cast his whole administration under such doubt that I would think it would be inimical to our countrys interests.

White House officials said nothing.

Originally posted here:
Donald Trump, and the Tradition of Suppressing October Surprises - The New York Times