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Not satisfied with his efforts to extend Turkeys influence into the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean, which has proved harder than similar efforts on land in Libya and Syria, President Erdogan has backed President Ilham Aliyevs efforts in Azerbaijans decades long simmering conflict with Armenia.

Given Armenias dearth of Western political supporters, and its peripheral status within the Wests religio-cultural community, Erdogan only has to face down Russian interests to extend Turkeys influence into the Caucasus.

Media reports allege that as Turkey did in Libya, it has moved allied irregular fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan. It has sold arms to Azerbaijan, reaping profits for the Turkish defense industry. In parallel, it has been fomenting the notion of pan-Turkism, calling for Azeris to recognize and embrace their natural affinity with Turks, a call aided by the closeness of the two languages, both now written in Latin script.

Now with the outbreak of hostilities, Erdoan has expressed full support for the Azerbaijani position, eschewing the role of mediator or honest broker between the warring parties. While the United States calls for the Minsk group to mediate, China offers its good offices, Russia calls for calm and an end to fighting, and Iran offers to broker talks, Turkey stands out as having placed itself fully on the side of one party to the conflict. Erdoan has no interest in a resolution of the conflict that does not enhance his prestige in Azerbaijan and political influence in the Caucasus region.

And he may get his wish. China is too far away to play much of a role, and it has few diplomats trained to be honest brokers instead of discerning and advocating forcefully for Chinas interest. Iran, with a population that is one-quarter ethnic Azeris and relatively few ethnic Armenians, would likely be seen as tilting towards Baku over Yerevan. The Minsk group would need substantial political capital invested by the U.S. to be effective as a mediator, and with the U.S. election in full-swing, there is little expectation the White House will back the Minsk group, or intervene itself, to bring a halt to the fighting. And while the UN will pass resolutions calling for cease fires, action to stop the fighting is unlikely.

Which leaves Russia on the side of Armenia, and Turkey on the side of Azerbaijan. It is unlikely the two greater powers will allow their clients to go so far as to pull their big brothers into the conflict, but the risk is there.

The greater danger is that, Aliyev, backed by Erdoan, wrapping his actions in calls for justice, will not seek a compromise and extend the fighting over time and terrain.Unlike specific identified territorial or other material goals, throwing the mantel of justice on war efforts leaves little room for horse-trading and compromise to settle a dispute in which each party gets less than what they desire, yet accepts that because they know the other party got the same. To satisfy the demands of justice or honor or similar concepts increases the likelihood that the conflict will only be resolved at great cost, for how can one relent when injustice is still occurring? And since each side will insist its cause is just, where is the room for sensible, realistic compromise?

President Erdoan likely views a protracted conflict as contrary to his interests. A short demonstration of support for Aliyevand Azerbaijan via the provision of arms, air support, military intelligence, and the transportation of irregular fighters (but not regular Turkish soldiers) will serve to cement his image as the defender of all Turkic peoples against the anti-Turkish Westerners. Linked to this will be the subtle message, and not so subtle suggestions from his acolytes, that Erdoan defends the Muslim Azeris against the Christian Armenians, a Sultan wielding the sword to defend the faithful.

Hell have to be careful. Putin may not so willingly cooperate with Turkey over the division of influence in Russias near abroad as it has done in Syria and to a lesser degree in Libya.

In the U.S. Congress, Erdoans full-throated support for Azerbaijan will not go down well with many members, particularly those with strong ties to the well-organized and well-to-do Armenian-American communities. Erdoans standing with the Democrat-dominated U.S. House of Representatives could not get much lower, so the voices of the Armenian-American lobby will find receptive ears.

Likewise with the White House, which has shown increasing impatience, or at least a less supportive attitude, towards Erdoan. Yet, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is not likely to push the U.S. forward as a mediator between the two Caucasus rivals, instead advocating a greater role for the Minsk group, in part to buy time until after the Nov. 3 election.

In sum, President Erdoan is likely to realize his goal of increasing his and Turkeys prestige among the Azeris and most other Turkic peoples of the region, as well as further convincing himself that he is the pre-eminent protector and defender of Turkic/Muslim peoples wherever they live. Like imperial leaders of all times, his reliance on client states and subordinate allies is no surprise and spares him the risk of losing votes if Turkish soldiers were to be killed fighting for others and not the motherland. His actions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh are another step in the process of undoing Ataturks secular and Western orientation of Turkey.

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Is Erdoan extending his influence into the Caucasus? - Ahval

Almost a month ago, when news first broke of an imminent deal between the UAE and Israel, it took no time at all for Turkeys president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to lash out at the Emirates: "I have given the necessary instructions to my foreign minister. We may either suspend diplomatic ties or recall our ambassador, because we stand with the Palestinian people. We have not let Palestine be defeated, neither will welet it be defeated."

This seems like quite a harsh statement coming from the president of a country that has full diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. Nevertheless, as expected, nothing much came of his words, and Turkey has still taken no action against the UAE. Just weeks later, when Israel and Bahrain announced a deal between the two countries, Turkey downgraded the rhetoric, leaving its foreign ministry to simply issue a curt official condemnation.

LISTEN: How COVID killed Bibis legacy and resurrected his archrivalHaaretz

To understand the degree to which Turkeys condemnation has been contained and formalized, note the contrast between Erdogans words in regard to the UAEs deal with Israel, a veritable call to (diplomatic) arms: "The move against Palestine is not a step that can be stomached," with what Turkeys Foreign Ministry noted on the Bahrain deal: a description of what Ankara sees as the new reality. The deal would further encourage Israel to continue illegitimate practices toward Palestine and its efforts to make the occupation of Palestinian lands permanent.

Turkeys position is an open irony, of course: clearly Turkeys ties with Israel have not stopped Israel from its "illegitimate practices towards Palestine," and if anything, it was actually the UAE, and not Turkey, that stopped Israel from annexing parts of the West Bank.

Even if the talk about Palestinians is at the core of Turkeys protests, the real problem Turkey has with the normalization of ties between Israel and the UAE is that it reflects Turkeys failure to actually matter.

Certainly, the turn toward the Gulf states is just another proof that Israel has long relegated Turkey to the sidelines. What Jerusalem didnt get from its relations with Turkey, it just might be able to get from ties with the UAE: a relationship based on mutual interests that will benefit both countries.

Israeli-Turkish relations over the last two decades has had its bad days, and its OK days, but they have really not seen many good days. Nevertheless, despite the yearly public spats between Erdogan, calling Israel out on human rights violations against Palestinians, and Netanyahu, calling out Erdogan on Turkeys treatment of Kurds, the two countries bilateral trade kept humming along, even growing.

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In Turkeys aggressive attempt to make Istanbul the worlds largest international hub, Turkish Airlines has also continued to fly to Israel through thick and thin, second only to El Al in the number of passengers carried on the route to and from Tel Aviv. Even during the COVID-19 crisis, Turkish was one of the first companies to resume flights to Israel, even as El Al remained grounded, despite reports earlier in the summer that El Al would start bi-weekly cargo flights to Turkey.

However, even if Turkey and Israel have seen mutual monetary benefits from trade and aviation, Israel knows that beyond this level of ties, the return is not worth the investment, certainly not with an Erdogan-led government.

Israels turn toward the Arab world and eastern Mediterranean countries as key partners in economic development is further proof that Turkey has missed the chance for a deal with the small country with one of the largest GDPs in the region.

And compounding the alienation is the fact that Turkey today looks a lot less appealing to Israel: a country struck with severe economic difficulties and continuous strife both domestically and internationally does not make it the most enticing candidate for greater intimacy.

Turkey now must be missing the period following the 2016 reconciliation talks with Israel when many believed there was a strong chance for Turkey to become Israels partner in transporting Israeli natural gas resources to Europe.

Had Turkey pursued a policy of investing in the building of strong regional ties, rather than attempting to attract the loyalty of Arab Islamists, it could have avoided its current energy-strapped status, while Egypt, Israel, the Palestinians, Cyprus and Greece (and perhaps even Lebanon) unite to find a path to a better future for their energy needs.

Perhaps the greatest illusion is that Turkey is in some way actually making things better for the Palestinians.

One cannot disregard the importance of how Ankara keeps the Palestinians on the international agenda, especially when the Palestinian leadership is itself divided, as are Arab states.

But it is Turkeys nearly sole Arab ally, Qatar (and UAE adversary) that transfers cash to Gaza to keep ordinary Palestinians above water. In fact, just this year alone Israeli military officials and the Mossad head have visited the Gulf state twice to secure these payments. This is substantial proof to argue that times indeed have changed: Israeli national security officials are guests of the country that positions itself as the most pro-Palestinian of them all.

It is Qatar that is serving as a trusted intermediary between Israel and the Palestinians, and not Turkey, which historically certainly could have played that role. Even the Palestinians, justifiably outraged by the new UAE and Bahrain deals, know that Turkey cannot replace Arab states both in terms of aid and support, regardless of what their relations with Israel might be.

So, sure, attending meetings in Ankara with Erdogan and receiving passports from Turkey might top the agenda of the Hamas leadership, but it will be the Egyptians negotiating the deal between Israel and the Hamas when violence breaks out. So much for Erdogans grandiose visions of being recognized as the first among less-than-equals in the leadership of the Muslim world.

Turkeys investment in the quest to be considered the regions pre-eminent presence has won insufficient returns. These days, its safe to say that both domestically and regionally, Erdogans governments prioritization of ideology over pragmatism has led the country into a series of economic and political crises.

In order to sustain this ideological bubble, every small achievement is inflated as a victory, the governments mistakes and shortcomings are glossed over by an obedient press, and critical voices calling foul are shouted down by an army of trolls.

>>Erdogan's Megalomaniac Movie Exposes His Weaknesses>>In Turkey, Twitter Is the Enemy of the People

What perhaps is most ironic about Ankara preaching to the UAE is that Turkey itself established the model for a majority Muslim country to have relations with Israel, while remaining a staunch defender of Palestinian rights. Turkey achieved this this position not in spite of its relations with Israel, but because of its relations with Israel.

Turkey relies on relations with Israel to spread its soft-power influence in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Unlike like the Arab states that promoted and enforced a complete boycott of Israel, it is Erdogan who has consistently encouraged his citizens to visit Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa mosque. How can Turkey now criticize those Emiratis who also long to visit the Muslim holy site?

While relations are still fresh between the UAE and Israel, it seems they have the potential to give Israel much more than Turkey ever could. The success of these two economic powerhouses certainly open the door to enhanced trade, research, a market for academics and professionals and tourism.

It is not hard to imagine the day that Turkish Airlines competitors in Dubai, Emirates Airlines, and Abu Dhabi, Etihad Airlines, will also serve as Israelis first choice to fly to Asia and parts of Africa.

While the local Palestinian leadership opposes a deal that rewards Israel with normalization while leaving the occupation intact, it is the highly skilled Israeli Arab population that could find future opportunities in international companies in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Its impossible to predict how Israel-UAE relations will develop, and whether it will manage the grassroots "warm peace" that has eluded Israels relations with its other peace partners, Jordan and Egypt. Abu Dhabis exuberant demonstrations of its new love for Israel hides uncertain domestic support for normalization with the Jewish state, and long-held pro-Palestinian sentiments in the Gulf more broadly.

But the signs are that both the UAE and Israel are looking for a long-term transformation of the region. For now, a picture emerges whereDubai and Abu Dhabi seem more than happy to add Israelis to the mix of tens of thousands of Palestinians, Lebanese, Turkish, European and American professionals who power their economy and thatthe UAE has calculated its future plans with a Jewish state not as a necessary evil but as an economic necessity.

For Israel, Turkeys protest is now not much more than background noise. For Jerusalem, its enough to keep relations with Turkey on the back burner, safe in the knowledge that Turkeys need for Israel will act as a brake on Ankara launching anything other than verbal attacks.

Israel does not need Turkey to remind it of the Palestinians. When Israelis wake up from their Gulf states dream, theyll find their new-found invincibility has a design flaw. The Palestinians are still there. Real peace does not end with them, but should have started with them.

Louis Fishman is an associate professor at Brooklyn College who divides his time between Turkey, the U.S. and Israel,and writes about Turkish and Israeli-Palestinian affairs. Twitter:@Istanbultelaviv

Continued here:
How Erdogan's Turkey has failed the Palestinians - Haaretz.com

A day after Pakistans foreign minister brought up Kashmir during a speech at the United Nations 75th anniversary commemoration event, the issue was raised again - this time by Turkish president Recep Erdogan during his general debate remarks.

The Kashmir conflict, which is also key to the stability and peace of South Asia, is still a burning issue. Steps taken following the abolition of the special status of Jammu-Kashmir further complicated the problem, Mr. Erdogan said via a recorded video message. India had abrogated Article 370 (special status for the former state of Jammu and Kashmir) and reorganized the former state into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

In August this year India had called unwarranted similar remarks made by a Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson. In February Mr. Erdogan, on an offical visit to Pakistan, told its parliament that the Kashmir issue was as close to the Pakistanis as it was to the Turkish people.

We are in favour of solving this issue through dialogue, within the framework of the United Nations resolutions and especially in line with the expectations of the people of Kashmir, Mr. Erdogan said on Tuesday.

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Resolve Kashmir issue in line with U.N. Resolutions: Erdogan to U.N. - The Hindu

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Family businesses: Trump and Erdogan versus the world - Cyprus Mail

Aug 25, 2020

Istanbul's mayoral race was held twice in 2019, and opposition candidateEkrem Imamogluwon both times. Fast forwardfrom June 27, 2019the day Imamoglu, from the main opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP), accepted the position of mayor to August 2020, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proudly announced the conversion to mosques of both the Hagia Sophia and theChora Museum.

TheIslamization of Istanbul continues as conservative Erdogan supporters enthusiastically cheer for the reconquest of the city with each new mosque announcement. Pro-government media ridiculeshow the West cannot accept the loss of theHagia Sophia or Istanbul. As television crews interviewed people waiting to attend Friday prayers on the day of the opening of Hagia Sophia as a mosque, one middle-aged man passionately said, Today, we took Istanbul back.

Even before Imamoglu assumed the mayors seat, it was an open secret that Erdogan intended to curtail the powers of municipal leaders. Butthe extent of usurpationhaving reached this level this quick was unfathomable. Al-Monitor spoke with both Justice and Development Party (AKP)and CHP members of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM).

The AKP holds the majorityin theIMMs city council. It has 39 smaller municipalities, and 24 of those belong to the AKP. The IMMs budget and revenues are a critical source of income, and the AKP is not willing to let it go. Istanbul accounts for 31% of the national gross domestic product.

Since June 2019, Erdogan has either generated decrees to return the metropolitan municipalities'powers to the ministries, or the AKP-led IMMcity council has managed to take over the decision-making power. The IMMhas not been the only target, as Ankara has even questioned mayors who tried to distribute free bread in the first days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Max Erdemandi, a researcher at the University of Maryland, told Al-Monitor, For Erdogan, making the 2019 local elections a referendum on his legacy was a huge mistake. He is now caught in a spiral of bad decisions that not only creates many obstacles that prevent Imamoglu from implementing effective governance but further tarnishesErdogans image as well.

IMMmedia relations coordinatorSukru Kucuksahin told Al-Monitor that Imamoglu is still awaiting an appointment to meet with the president.

However, Ankara seems determined to block Imamoglu from reaching any of his goals. For example, Imamoglu has expressed he is adamantly against Erdogans mega projectCanal Istanbul, an artificial waterway that would link the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara to bypass the vulnerable Bosporus Strait. Imamoglu explained thepotential dangers of the project based on scientific data on earthquake safety, economic burden and ecological threats. On Aug. 19, the IMMposted signs all around the city with the slogan that the choice was between Istanbul or the Canal. Police took down all the billboards after midnight. This sort of action by the police would normally require a court order.

The results of the governments power grabs concerning municipal matters became evident. On Aug. 12, Turkey was shocked to see workers drilling the stone walls of 14th-century Galata Tower, as IMMbureaucrats tried to stop the renovation. Back in May, after months of legal battles, iconic Galata Towers property rights were transferred to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. A similar process has beenfollowed for different historic sites;for example, the Chora Monasterys museum status was abolished in November 2019, and it was transferred to the Religious Affairs Directorate in July 2020.

The IMMalso tried to preserve two historic icons of the city: the Sirkeci and the Haydarpasa train stations. There was a tender under the state railwaysto rent the idle storage facilities, but with rather scabious justifications, the IMMs bid was eliminated. Instead, a former employee of the IMM, Huseyin Avni Onder,won the bid. Onder is the former chairman of the Archers Foundation(Okcular Vakfi). Erdogans younger son, Bilal Erdogan, serves on the board. The foundation received millions of dollars of financial support from the IMMbefore Imamoglus electoral victory.

In November2019, the IMMs AKP-majority city council decided to transfer the metropolitan municipalitieslands, along with buildings and businesses on those lands, to the smaller municipalities where the AKP had won.

"The IMMs revenues declined during the pandemic. So Imamoglu sought permission to borrow 4.2 billion liras ($575 million) for the city, but only 648 million liras ($89 million) was granted by the AKP-led IMMcity council, said Kucuksahin.

A member of the IMMcity council speaking on the condition of anonymity saidthis money was allowed so that AKP-friendly contractors could be paid for the debt accrued before Imamoglu became mayor.

In July 2020, 565 million liras ($76.5million) reserved in a bank account for the construction of a new metro was confiscated to pay for the debts accumulated during the AKP era. These are only a few of the unprecedented punitive actions taken against the IMM. The central government's power grab aims to thwart Imamoglus reelection prospects and restore a significant amount of income for the AKP's decades-long clientelism.

The opposition has won the electoral battle, but can they win the war against the central government? Indeed, some neighborhoods set the example of what the IMMis up against after all. The Beyoglu district is home to Istiklal Avenue, which used to be one of the most popular spots for tourists and gatherings. This is where Gezi Park protests originated as well as several other historic marches. The AKP delivered on its promise to clean Beyoglu. Shopkeepers became the perfunctory vigilantes against protesters.

Now,Kadikoy is going through a similar transformation. In July, the shopkeepers attacked a group of youth activists who were commemorating the victims of a terrorist attack. A real estate agent who has been in Kadikoy for two decades told Al-Monitor there wasincreasedpressure on real estate agents and building owners to rent spaces to the native and national people, meaning pro-government people. Then there is pressure on the existing shopkeepers to hire pro-government people. Financial inspectors keep writing fines and left-leaning shopkeepers leave the district, he added.

Last years electoral victories and Erdogans decreasing approval ratings in the polls give the opposition enthusiasm. Erdogan was able to use the IMMs mayoral post as a stepping stone to power. Replicating his model to success no longer seems possible.

The AKP removed most mayors and council members from the pro-Kurdish Peoples DemocraticParty in Kurdish cities. In the West, their titles remain intact. Buttheir municipal power is decimated, and they cannot even hangposters on their own billboards. Just like Kurdish signs are removed regularly, so are the Turkish ones if the AKP doesnt approve.

These repeated injuries are taken to the courts, only to confirmwho really holds absolute political power. Ballot box victories may no longer be sufficient to challenge Erdogans imperial powers.

Read the original here:
Is Turkeys opposition losing Istanbul to Erdogan? - Al-Monitor