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Turkey is in a historically critical phase concerning its present and its future. Much of the debate is focused on one crucial question: Can Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan consolidate power around his person and cadres loyal to him or will he face increasing difficulties ensuring control over key institutions?

Given the apparent lack of exit strategy for him as Turkeys system crisis deepens, the question seems intractable. The situation is one of unprecedented limbo for Turkey and its political class.

What adds to the dilemma is the type of balance between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its minor partner the National Movement Party (MHP) on the one hand and the opposition bloc on the other.

A poll by one of the few reliable pollsters, Ankara-based Metropoll, indicated that the AKP-MHP alliance has 51% favourability while the secular main opposition Republican Peoples Party does not draw more than 25% favourability. Its nationalist opposition partner, the Iyi party, has fallen below the critical 10% threshold needed to enter parliament and the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party polls just above that level at 11%.

Discontent among the voters, because of economic hardships, brews beneath the surface. Those who oppose moves to send troops to Libya are slightly more than 50% of the public. The controversial Canal Istanbul project is another issue that doesnt seem to convince large numbers of voters in the massive Greater Istanbul Municipality area.

Yet, as pointed out by Metropoll director zer Sencar to Ahval News, the concerned voter bloc within the AKP is not convinced by what the opposition offers as a political alternative.

This snapshot is good news for Erdogan. It gives him time to construct a future in his favour but, as Canal Istanbul, Libya and East Med examples show, the plunge first, think later mindset, seems to hardly stir the bureaucracy in Ankara and a sense of despair gains ground.

Turkeys main opposition leader, Kemal Kldarolu, voiced such deep establishment concerns in a meeting with journalists recently. Kldarolu has a deeply rooted background as a bureaucrat in Turkish state apparatus; thus his remarks have particular pertinence.

For the first time, he said, Turkeys dependency on Russia is increasing. We are dependent in energy up to 60% to Russia. This is wrong. More important, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin began shaping Turkeys foreign policy. Especially in Syria and Libya, Putins words have the final say.

In another part of the meeting, Kldarolu is said to have raised alarm over Erdoans steady attempts to take full control of the Turkish judiciary and persistent restructuring of Turkish Armed Forces.

The stalemate in the balance of power between the government and the opposition blocs in Turkey, coupled with a toothless parliament, creates a dangerous vacuum that may lead to a crash unless Erdogan pays attention to the calls for a return to responsible policies and abandons his bellicose moves in the region.

A report by the RAND Corporation shed light on the minefield-like crossroads where Turkey finds itself. Based partly on Pentagons insider assessments, it warned: Turkeys assertive foreign policy moves include support for political Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood a group viewed as terrorists by Gulf monarchies and Egypt and its bid to claim a share of the Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbon wealth.

Equally important, the 243-page report argues that mid-rank officers in the Turkish Armed Forces are deeply worried about purges that have taken place since the botched coup in 2016 and that this may lead to another disruptive attempt. Erdoan is aware of this, it adds.

RAND outlines four scenarios ranging from a Turkey remaining somewhat part of the Western alliance to a full-scale de-anchoring of its previous alliances and moving towards Russia and China but leaves a question mark on Erdogans map towards 2023 the year of the centennial of the Turkish Republic.

What is clear is that his assertive, adventurist, crisis-oriented policies have begun to accumulate negative energy beneath Ankaras political fault lines.

Original post:
Turkish discontent with Erdoan on the rise - Ahval

Turkeys president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday denied that the country was under-prepared for earthquakes as the death toll from a tremor that hit the countrys east climbed to at least 35.

Do not listen to rumours, do not listen to anyones negative, contrary propaganda, and know that we are your servants, Mr Erdogan said on Saturday after attending the funeral of a mother and son who were killed in Fridays 6.8 magnitude earthquake

His comments followed the announcement of a criminal investigation into provocative social media posts and reports that broadcasting authorities were reviewing media coverage of the quake.

Some locals accused officials of under-reporting the number of people trapped inside buildings, as hopes faded that the missing might be found alive.

The earthquakes epicentre was in the town of Sivrice, in Turkeys eastern Elazig Province, a picturesque area atop the Eastern Anatolian Fault.

Locals here oftenchoose one-story prefabricated housingin anticipation of tremors. Much of the damage appears to affecthigh-density multi-storey housing in urban areas.

By Sunday afternoon, experts had clocked 714 aftershocks.

The Turkish governments disaster and emergency agency, AFAD, said close to 80 buildings collapsed and another 645 were heavily damaged across two provinces.

Turkeys Interior Ministry said at least 15,000 people are sleeping in gymnasiums and schools, and more than 5,000 tents have been set up for others made homeless by the quake.

See original here:
Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan hits back at criticism of earthquake readiness as death toll reaches 35 - The Telegraph

President Recep Tayyip Erdoan of Turkey arrived in Banjul on Monday, as part of a three-nation tour that follows a stop in Algeria and will continue in Senegal.

This is Erdoans first official visit to the West African nation, which comes amid The Gambias recent struggle over President Adama Barrows tenure. Advocates for a three-year term, which would have recently expired, say hes violating his own promises but Barrow says the consitution requires a five-year term. Those tensions spilled into the street at the weekend, with dozens of arrests reported.

The Gambia also struggles with the economic fallout following the 22-year rule of exiled leader Yahya Jammeh, whose supporters have pressured Barrow to allow to return, as well as a lengthy national reconciliation process.

For his part, Erdoan has worked to raise Ankaras profile on the African continent in recent years, but that too has become controversial as Turkeys presence in Libya, in support of the Tripoli-based government, and its investments in Sudan have drawn international scrutiny.

Both nations say they plan to build on existing bilateral agreements on security, trade, health care and other sectors. The Gambian government says more than 100 students currently study in Turkey, most of them on scholarships, as education remains a focal point of the relationship.

The two leaders also plan to discuss regional and international security concerns, while business forums were planned for both Algeria and Senegal.

African leaders have been quick to extend condolences to Erdoan following last weeks earthquake in Elaz province, in the eastern part of Turkey where at least 41 people died.

Image: Gambian presidency

Related

Read the original post:
Erdogan arrives for visit in troubled The Gambia - Africa Times

Former National Security adviser John Bolton last year reportedly expressed his concern to Attorney General Bill Barr that the President was effectively doing favors for the leaders of two foreign countries.

In response, Barr reportedly expressed his own concerns specifically, that Trump had made it look as if he had an undue influence over independent investigations that affected the two countries in question, China and Turkey.

The New York Times on Mondayreported the discussion, which the paper said was contained in a draft manuscript of an upcoming book from Bolton.

In the same manuscript, the Times reported Sunday, Bolton said that president Donald Trump had explicitly tied aid that he was withholding to political dirt he wanted from Ukraine an issue at the center of the current impeachment trial against Trump. A draft of the book was submitted to the White House for security review last month.

A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment for the story, the Times said.

According to Boltons manuscript, Barr reportedly expressed concerns to Bolton about the Chinese telecom firm ZTE, and specifically about Trumps conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the firm.

In 2016, the Department of Commerce found that the company had violated U.S. sanctions on Iran and North Korea. The firm agreed to plead guilt and pay a fine for the violation the next year, and in 2018 Trump lifted sanctions that had been in place against ZTE, despite the protestation of many in Congress.

According to the Times, Barr also cited his concerns over Trumps conversations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2018 about Halkbank.

The state-owned bank was under investigation at the time for fraud and money laundering, part of an alleged scheme to help Iran evade U.S. sanctions. Ultimately, the bank was charged in October in the Southern District of New York.

Excerpt from:
Bolton Told Barr He Was Worried Trump Was Doing Favors For Xi And Erdogan, Book Reportedly Says - TPM

WASHINGTON A recently published book on U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy reveals new details on how he allegedly pressured Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to release a Turkish citizen held in Israel on charges of smuggling for Hamas.

Trump had asked for the Turkish citizen's release as part of a deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to release an American evangelical pastor jailed in Turkey.

Hijacking the Holocaust for Putin, politics and powerHaaretz Weekly Ep. 57

The July 2018 release of 27-year-old Turkish citizen Ebru zkan reportedly came a day after a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, during which the subject was discussed. In their new book A Very Stable Genius, Washington Post reporters Carol Leonnig and Philip Rucker describe exactly how the deal for her release unfolded, shedding light on the relationships between Trump, Netanyahu and Erdogan.

The deal, according to the book, started shaping up when Trump met Erdogan at a NATO summit in Brussels in early July 2018. During their meeting, Erdogan asked Trump to press Israel to release zkan, who had been arrested several weeks earlier upon landing in Israel and indicted forsmuggling money and a cellphone to Hamas operatives. In return, Erdogan promised Trump he would release Andrew Brunson, an American pastor who was arrested in Turkey.

The book claims Trump and Erdogan concluded the deal with a fist bump. A few days later, Trump took the Turkish presidents request to Netanyahu. On July 14, while Trump spent the weekend at his golf resort in Scotland, he decided in the middle of playing a round to call Netanyahu, the authors write. His aides brought a secure phone out to the front nine. Trump leaned into the Israeli prime minister and asked him to release zkan. Netanyahu confessed that he knew nothing about the woman. Her name did not register with him.

zkan was accused of smuggling a relatively small amount of money several hundred dollars and her trial in a military court received little media coverage in Israel. That may be why Netanyahu was surprised by the American presidents request. Nevertheless, write Leonnig and Rucker, He agreed to look into it and to help speed her release, barring some other issue.

The next day, July 15, zkan was released, according to the book. She flew from Israel to Istanbul, where she was met by reporters and professed gratitude for Erdogan.

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Her release caught Israeli officials by surprise, and it was not immediately clear why Trump had asked Netanyahu to handle it. But on July 18, a Turkish court rejected appeals to release Brunson and set another court date for October. At the White House, where the president had just returned from his European trip, officials were taken aback. Trump tweeted that the Turkish courts decision was a total disgrace.

Trump felt he was cheated by the Turkish president: He had secured the Turkish citizens release from Israel, only to see the U.S. pastor remain in Turkey. On July 26, Trump called Erdogan and was livid. The call was short, with Trump doing most of the talking and not getting the answers he wanted. Trump then took to Twitter to announce his displeasure. The United States will impose large sanctions on Turkey, he wrote.

A few weeks later, in mid-August, the book reports that Trump publicly acknowledged for the first time his role in the Israeli prisoner trade. We got somebody out for him, he said, referring to Erdogan. He needed help getting somebody out of someplace; they came out.

It took another two months but eventually, in October 2018, Brunson was finally released and allowed to leave Turkey. His first stop after arriving in the United States was the White House, where he was photographed together with Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. American pundits and analysts suggested at the time that his release would help Trump secure high turnout among evangelicals in the 2018 midterm elections, held less than a month later.

See more here:
Then, on the 9th hole, Trump called Netanyahu: Erdogan wants something - Haaretz