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The third lesson is that Turkey faces challenges on the ground that it needs to adapt to, even in Turkey-friendly territories like Sandzak.

Among the Bosniak citizens of Sandzak, Erdogan and Turkey enjoy rockstar status.

During Cavusoglus visit, Turkeys ambassador to Serbia, Hami Aksoy, promised new Turkish investments in Sandzak. It remains to be seen whether Ankara will follow through on this promise, but if it does, now would be the right time.

Despite the enormous popularity that Erdogan and his country enjoy in Sandzak, economic investments in the region are scant and do not correspond with the positive perceptions of the local population.

On top of that, the local political landscape in Sandzak is shifting. The two traditional Bosniak political parties in Sandzak, the Sandzak Democratic Action Party, SDA Sandzak, and the Sandzak Democratic Party, SDP, have been politically overtaken by the younger Justice and Conciliation Party, SPP), of former Grand Mufti Muamer Zukorlic. However, Zukorlic has now passed away unexpectedly.

Zukorlic operated with direct support from the Serbian government. More importantly, unlike traditional Bosniak parties, he was more critical of Turkey and closer to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. A major Turkish investment in the region would help Turkey re-assert itself, given the changes in local politics in Sandzak. The sudden death of Zukorlic creates a vacuum that will be challenging for both Belgrade and Ankara.

However, the ultimate lesson is that Turkish foreign policy, despite lofty rhetoric, has its limitations. Despite the pleas of Bosniak groups and NGOs in Turkey, Turkey was slow to act on the Bosnian crisis at first.

Ankara appears willing to pass this hot potato to the West. Turkeys capacities in the Balkans are limited compared to the West. The Turkish government is preoccupied with its domestic dynamics, including rumours of Erdogans deteriorating health and preparations for the 2023 general elections.

On top of that, Turkey is preoccupied with its more troublesome neighbourhoods in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus. Equally important in terms of international constraints is that Ankara always has to calibrate its Balkan policy based on how it will reflect on its bilateral ties with Belgrade, but more importantly, its relations with the West and Russia.

Russia and the West are engaged in a tit-for-tat battle at the UN Security Council over Bosnia. Simultaneously, Turkey has to coordinate with Russia not just on the Balkans but on hot issues like the Caucasus, as evident from a recent meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Cavusoglu. While the feuding groups in Bosnia show sympathy towards the idea of Erdogan as a mediator, Ankara must always take care when choosing the timing and the tone of its Balkan moves.

The latest Turkish engagement with the Balkans shows that its foreign policy in the region is guided by pragmatism, and that Ankara knows how to adapt to changing regional dynamics. The case of Sandzak has also shown us that Turkish regional policy is not carefree.

Erdogan may celebrate the Ottoman Empire in his speeches, but at the end of the day, he is all business. Based on the current Bosnian crisis, it is clear that Turkey, despite its ambitions and lofty words, faces limits to how far it can go in the Balkans. One thing is also certain, in the Balkans, no one trusts anybody these days.

Vuk Vuksanovic is a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) and an associate of LSE IDEAS, a foreign policy think tank of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He got his PhD in international relations at the LSE. He has published widely on modern foreign and security policy issues.

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Turkey's Pragmatic Policy in the Balkans has its Limits - Balkan Insight

On Oct. 26, Turkish Minister of Interior Suleyman Soylu gave a speech addressing Turkey's female mukhtars. Mukhtars are elected neighborhood administrators, and there are over 50,000 of them throughout the country. This group generates a significant support network for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). At this gathering, Soylu mentioned their battle against drug dealers and said he gets complaints from authorities who cannot destroy abandoned buildings without court orders, which they say are being used by drug dealers. Advising the mukhtars to destroy the buildings in the middle of the night so who would know who had done it? Soylu said, You demolish those buildings and acourt order will follow. Female mukhtars happily cheered.

In the media, Soylus comments about flouting the law raised some red flags among independent journalists, and a small left-wing opposition party brought an official complaint against the minister for inciting the public to commit criminal acts. But Soylu does not need to be afraid: Advocating to ignore the law or to custom design laws according to the AKPs needs has become the norm in Turkey.

This is not Soylus first on-the-record advocacy to ignore the law. In January 2018, Soylu urged police officers to break the legs of drug dealers, referring to it as their duty.

Al-Monitor spoke with 10 female mukhtars who attended Soylus speech and asked why they cheered his comments. Most said they did not think Soylu was suggesting anything illicit.

One was upset at the question and said, He is the interior minister. Do you think you would know better? Another mukhtar from Ankara explained, It is good to know the minister is on our side. There are so many rules and regulations; it creates gridlock. To get things done we need support from the central government.

When pressed about private property rights and asked how they'd feel if their homes were declared abandoned and burned to the ground one night, the Ankara mukhtar protested, That is not what the minister said. We all respect private property laws. This is for the order of the neighborhood.

None of the mukhtars could explain how the decision to destroy would be made and which buildings would be considered abandoned without a court order. Yet they all agreed that the speech made them feel good.

That might just be an explanation for the prevailing political rhetoric in Turkey nowadays. But when senior government officials urge other public employees to disregard the law repeatedly, it generates a formidable and discriminatory political environment where laws only apply to dissidents but for the AKPs friends and AKP-approved acts, laws can be bent, adopted, and even ignored diligently.

Aykan Erdemir, senior director of the Turkey program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former member of the Turkish parliament, told Al-Monitor, By openly advising officials to disregard laws in their actions and promising to legalize such extralegal actions by retrospective court rulings, Soylu has confessed that there is neither rule of law in Turkey nor an independent judiciary. This is yet more evidence that Turkey has descended into arbitrary rule under the executive presidential system, which increasingly resembles sultanistic regimes of the region.

Another worrisome point in all of this abandoned house talk is the AKPs control over the lawmaking process since the transition to the presidential system in 2018. It is fair to say most, if not all, laws originate from Erdogans speeches and decrees.

Erdogans and his closest associates opinions not only rule politics, but they also go into effect as laws once they are spoken. So whatever laws AKP elites do not like, they can change them, and they have done so.

A political scientist working at a public university in Ankara, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al-Monitor, What they advocate cannot be turned into law, because then the law would not have any value for others. For example, if mukhtars are given exclusionary discretion to declare an abandoned building to be demolished, then how could private property ever be protected? Or if cops are given the legal discretion to break the legs of drug dealers, how could proper prosecution work? What if those people are not drug dealers after all?

And there is another caveat: There are an overwhelming number of new laws, bylaws, revised laws and regulations on almost all areas of public policy since the transition to the presidential system, and it is becoming unmanageable.

A senior bureaucrat involved in planning at the Ministry of Interior told Al-Monitor, Erdogan was loved because he was a go-getter; he would find smooth and swift solutions to everyday problems. Sometimes if he cut a few corners, people did not mind. Today, it seems the AKP generated a system that makes life rather stressful. Administrators, bureaucrats, any government office really does not want to do the simplest procedures without authorization from the top. These types of endorsements from the AKPs top echelons are signals to the rest of us that we are safe and will not be prosecuted because there is increasing concern that top guys will run abroad and the middlemen will end up in jail.

As talk about the post-Erdogan era intensifies, the opposition has been warning bureaucrats not to disrespect the laws under pressure from the AKP, as they could be prosecuted later on. This rattled already nervous bureaucracy and intensified the gridlock in Ankara. Simultaneously, there is also talk from opposition members that they will not engage in revenge-seeking policies once they assume power.

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Legal ambiguity becomes the norm in Erdogans Turkey - Al-Monitor

The Turkish state entered Jarablus on 24 of 2016. This area was occupied by ISIS in 2014. The Turkish army officially entered the area only in 2016.

The entry of the Turkish state into the region coincided with the liberation of Manbij by the Syrian Democratic Forces from ISIS mercenaries. In fact, the liberation of Manbij by the Syrian Democratic Forces put the operation to liberate Jarablus, which was under ISIS occupation at the time, on the agenda. As a result, the Turkish state moved quickly and considered the occupation of the region a necessity for it.

It was even waiting for Kobani to fall into the hands of ISIS during the 2014 attacks, but despite all the support of the Turkish state, Kobani resisted against ISIS, and what Erdogan predicted did not happen. In other words, Kobani did not fall. On the contrary, the resistance escalated and became the beginning of the end of ISIS.

After Jarablus, it was Azaz's turn, then Marei', and finally, it was Al-Bab's turn in 2017.

Occupation attacks on Afrin

With the occupation of the Jarabulus-Al-Bab line, the Turkish state became the de facto occupying power in Syria. However, it was not able to block the path of the common resistance front of the peoples that advanced under the leadership of the Kurds and adopted by the peoples of the world.

Erdogan saw this situation, formed the mercenaries, and strengthened them as an alternative to ISIS - Al-Nusra. But the result did not change either. For this reason, on January 21, 2018, the city of Afrin was targeted, and the war of extermination began an extensive attack against the region.

Erdogan has turned his back on Russia and the United States of America, and despite NATO's support, it has faced continuous resistance for two months at a time. The fighting expanded to Afrin.

They targeted all places with airstrikes, even schools, hospitals and homes.

The Turkish state adopted the deadliest mercenary organizations, trained them, provided them with weapons, and began hunting down the Kurds. They were trying to flip the facts with the lie "There is a threat on our borders". Once again, the international powers made the Kurds a victim of their interests. They ignored the Turkish state's moves with the bloodiest modern organizations and attacked Afrin.

After they submitted Afrin to the Turkish state; Russia's dominance over Turkey escalated. The Turkish state took another step to exterminate the Kurds, but it was more closely linked to Russia.

Afrin from a geo-strategic and political point of view

Of course, there were reasons that made Afrin important to the Turkish state. It is located in the far north of Syria on the border with Turkey, and was a separate area from the Jazira and Euphrates regions. That is why Erdogan's statement that he "will perform Friday prayers in the Umayyad Mosque" was important. In the east, it occupied the Jarabulus-Al-Bab line, and turned it into a military base for the Turkish army to exit from it to the Bar-Rojava line and beyond.

The capture of Afrin was of great strategic importance for Damascus as well, as Erdogan was planning to perform Friday prayers in the Umayyad Mosque. That is, he was trying to occupy it. The Turkish state occupied Afrin and united it with Jarabulus in the east, and it was going to go to the north of Aleppo more through the al-Shahba region, and then it was going to Idlib, which controls the southwest, and it was going to unite the two cities together, this was what was calculated.

But despite the fact that Afrin fell under Turkish occupation; They did not allow the Turkish state to pass to al-Shahba, and the Resistance of the Age continued in its second phase.

Mercenaries settled in Idlib... Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh resisted and ended the occupation

Before the Turkish state occupied Afrin, it deployed its forces in many Syrian regions; To reach Aleppo and Damascus within the framework of the 'training and arming plan' with America. The goal of the Turkish state was to lay the foundation of the occupation through the 'proxy war' and to bring down the Syrian regime at the hands of the mercenaries of ISIS and Al-Nusra, who were composed of al-Qaeda mercenaries, and to make these mercenaries control northern and eastern Syria, get Aleppo and Damascus, and then divide Syria according to its whims.

Even if you fail, at least you will not let the Kurds win

Erdogan achieved what he wanted on the ground, albeit in small proportions, but the common struggle of the peoples led by the Kurds against the mercenary organizations was the main factor in thwarting the accounts that were made on Syria.

Erdogan saw this, and this time he turned to the Kurds completely, and with the support of Russia, the United States of America and NATO occupied Afrin.

Erdogan's plan was that if he could not pray in the Umayyad Mosque and liquidate the Assad regime; It will certainly not let the Kurds achieve political recognition in the region.

The other factor that thwarted Erdogans plans was years before the planning of the occupation of Afrin, which was the resistance that emerged in the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighborhoods in Aleppo. This resistance, which developed as a people's war, did not allow the occupation of the region by mercenaries supported by Turkey.

Despite the occupation of Afrin and the linking of Idlib to Afrin through Darat Izza and Jindires, the al-Shahba-Tal Rifaat line, which is located north of Aleppo, remained under the control of the Kurdish forces, and did not allow the occupation to expand from Jarabulus and al-Bab towards Aleppo and Idlib from the east-west and north-south sides.

This cut the way for the movement of the Turkish state and its mercenaries, but it created a barrier for the Syrian regime against the possible attacks of the Turkish occupation. The continuous resistance of the Kurdish forces in this area until now gives the Syrian regime a great gain for the siege of Idlib and the attacks against the Turkish mercenaries.

Tel Rifaat

There is no doubt that Tel Rifaat is one of the places that have become a target for possible occupation attacks in the recent period. The question in this case is why Tal Rifaat?

Tal Rifaat, an area west of Marea. It is also located north of Azaz, occupied by the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation, and is of strategic importance to Iran, such as the cities of Nubl and Al-Zahra. Taking control of Tal Rifaat means besieging al-Shahba on the one hand and strangling the forces linked to Iran in the Nubl and al-Zahra areas.

If the Turkish state captured Tel Rifaat, it would almost certainly besiege Aleppo via Nubl and al-Zahra. Thus, Aleppo will be encircled from the west via Idlib, from the east to al-Bab, and from the north through Tal Rifaat and al-Shahba. This is the plan.

The Turkish state, which controls all these areas, will strengthen itself in Idlib on the one hand, and threaten the Iranian presence in the region on the one hand, and when it besieges Aleppo, it will head to Manbij through al-Bab, Marea, and Jarabulus, and this will be easier for it.

Therefore, this matter will not only enhance the role of the Turkish state in the future of Syria, but will at the same time limit the role of the Damascus government and Russia as well. This situation will be a gift from God to Erdogan, who has been very weak in negotiations with Russia in recent years; Because of the issue of withdrawal from Idlib. Of course, if you achieve what you want.

The other goal of the occupation; Manbij

One of the important sites and regions that Erdogan has targeted several times is Manbij.

Manbij is now surrounded by the Turkish state. To its east lies the Euphrates River, Kobani and the Euphrates region.

The importance of Manbij lies in the fact that it is located at the intersection of northern and eastern Syria and the Afrin-Aleppo road. And because the M4 trade route passes through Manbij, this increases the importance of the city. The occupied Turkish state will also be concentrated more in the areas of Jarabulus, Azaz, Marea and Al-Bab. But the issue is not only the seizure of Manbij, it also means the besieging of Kobani from the west. That is why Manbij is always targeted by the Turkish state, for trade on the one hand, and in order to reach new areas from the east-west side, and to strengthen the occupied areas. Without a doubt, Manbij is at the same time a great commercial city.

Erdogan's great heartbreak, Kobani

Kobani is of great political importance; Because ISIS was defeated for the first time in 2014. Regardless of its symbolic importance; Kobani is also important on the geostrategic level.

Kobani is located in the north, on the borders of Suruj, in its east, Gir Spi, in its west, and Jarabulus in its north.

The reason why the Turkish state targeted Kobani, as ISIS did previously, is that it is an intersection point west and east of the Euphrates, and because the M4 road is located to the south of it, which is the most important trade route in Syria.

It is now besieged from the northwest from the direction of Jarabulus and from the side of Gire Spi in the east.

The occupation of Kobani will link Jarabulus and Gir Sp and separate the east and west of the Euphrates, and at the same time mean besieging Ain Issa from the west and controlling a section of the M4 road. But the other factor that makes Kobani important is, as we mentioned at the beginning of the paragraph, that it is the place where ISIS was defeated for the first time in 2014. This is also seen as a major blow to Erdogans plans in Syria, and in this way it becomes the reason for the continuous attack on him. This is why Kobani is Erdogan's biggest regret.

Ain Issa

Ain Issa is one of the areas that the Turkish state threatens to attack after the attacks it launched on Gire Seri and Serkaniy.

Gir Sp surrounds Ain Issa in the north, and it is bordered by Kobani to the northwest, Sirin to the west, Raqqa to the south, and the M4 road to the east.

The possible attack of the occupation of Ain Issa will cut the road between Al Jazeera and the Euphrates, in addition to cutting the road between Kobani, Raqqa and Tabqa.

Before the occupation of Serkaniy and Gir Sp, Ain Issa was the center of the Autonomous Administration, and it is a defensive area for Raqqa from the northern side.

Tal Tamr

Another area where the occupation attacks have not stopped since 2019 is Tal Tamr.

Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs and Armenians live in Tal Tamr, one of the most diverse places. But the geographical importance of Tel Tamer for the region is that it is located on the connecting roads towards the two large cities of Hasaka and Qamishlo.

The M4 commercial road passes from this side of al-Hasakah, which is located west of Ain Issa and on the border of the Euphrates region.

The main objective of the Turkish state's attack on Tal Tamr is to control this area. And the separation between the regions of the island and the Euphrates and control of the trade road M4. If Tal Tamr is occupied, Al-Hasakah will be surrounded, as will Al-Darbasiyah and Amuda.

The result

The plan to occupy the mentioned areas aims to control the entire area. It is intended to sever relations between the regions, and then target another region that remains unprotected. They want to divide it first, and then occupy the whole area.

But although Turkey may have developed such a plan in line with it, it must be known that the war has not stopped for a single day, especially since the occupation of Gir Spi and Sere Kani. The struggle that was waged at this stage and the experience that was drawn from the occupation attacks made the region more powerful and resistant.

It appeared that if the Turkish state attacked one of these areas, it would face great resistance, as this appeared in the resistance in the Ain Issa and Tal Tamr fronts. Therefore, there is the possibility of a new war that may result in the expulsion of Turkey from the occupied areas. In fact, it is not possible for Turkey to launch a comprehensive attack on these areas without the consent of Russia and the United States of America, which control the region's airspace. Even if a possible attack is approved, the atmosphere in the region will undoubtedly be different from the 2018 operations in Afrin and 2019 in Gir Sp and Serkaniy, as the Turkish state and the remaining remnants of mercenaries from ISIS and Nusra will be defeated.

(NS)

ANHA

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Erdogan's plan to attack Rojava.. will not be the same as before - ANHA

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks up during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Istanbul on Oct. 16. Francisco Seco/AP hide caption

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks up during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Istanbul on Oct. 16.

ISTANBUL Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Saturday that he had ordered 10 foreign ambassadors who called for the release of a jailed philanthropist to be declared persona non grata.

The envoys, including the U.S., French and German representatives in Ankara, issued a statement earlier this week calling for a resolution to the case of Osman Kavala, a businessman and philanthropist held in prison since 2017 despite not having been convicted of a crime.

Describing the statement as an "impudence," Erdogan said he had ordered the ambassadors be declared undesirable.

"I gave the instruction to our foreign minister and said 'You will immediately handle the persona non grata declaration of these 10 ambassadors,'" Erdogan said during a rally in the western city of Eskisehir.

He added: "They will recognize, understand and know Turkey. The day they don't know or understand Turkey, they will leave."

The diplomats, who also include the ambassadors of the Netherlands, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and New Zealand, were summoned to the foreign ministry on Tuesday.

A declaration of persona non grata against a diplomat usually means that individual is banned from remaining in their host country.

Kavala, 64, was acquitted last year of charges linked to nationwide anti-government protests in 2013, but the ruling was overturned and joined to charges relating to a 2016 coup attempt.

International observers and human rights groups have repeatedly called for the release of Kavala and Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, who has been jailed since 2016. They say their imprisonment is based on political considerations. Ankara denies the claims and insists on the independence of Turkish courts.

The European Court of Human Rights called for Kavala's release in 2019, saying his incarceration acted to silence him and wasn't supported by evidence of an offense. The Council of Europe says it will start infringement proceedings again Turkey at the end of November if Kavala is not released.

The current U.S. ambassador, David Satterfield, was appointed in 2019. The nomination of his replacement, Jeff Flake, was approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

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Turkey's Erdogan orders the removal of 10 ambassadors, including U.S. envoy - NPR

By Daren Butler and Jonathan Spicer

ISTANBUL (Reuters) -President Tayyip Erdogan's political opponents said on Sunday that his call to expel the ambassadors of 10 Western allies was a bid to divert attention from Turkey's economic difficulties, while diplomats hoped the expulsions might yet be averted.

On Saturday, Erdogan said he had ordered the envoys be declared 'persona non grata' for seeking philanthropist Osman Kavala's release from prison.

By Sunday evening, there was no sign that the foreign ministry had yet carried out the instruction, which would open the deepest rift with the West in Erdogan's 19 years in power.

The diplomatic crisis coincides with investor worries about the Turkish lira's fall to a record low after the central bank, under pressure from Erdogan to stimulate the economy, unexpectedly slashed interest rates by 200 points last week.

The lira hit a fresh all-time low in early Asian trade, weakening 1.6% to 9.75 per dollar in a move that bankers attributed to Erdogan's comments. It has lost almost a quarter of its value so far this year.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition CHP, said Erdogan was "rapidly dragging the country to a precipice".

"The reason for these moves is not to protect national interests but to create artificial reasons for the ruining of the economy," he said on Twitter.

'SEEN THIS FILM BEFORE'

Kavala, a contributor to numerous civil society groups, has been in prison for four years, charged with financing nationwide protests in 2013 and with involvement in a failed coup in 2016. He denies the charges and has remained in detention while his trial continues.

"We've seen this film before," said opposition IYI Party deputy leader Yavuz Agiralioglu. "Return at once to our real agenda and the fundamental problem of this country - the economic crisis."

Erdogan said the envoys had failed to respect Turkey's judiciary and had no right to demand Kavala's release.

Story continues

Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank Edam and a former Turkish diplomat, said Erdogan's timing was incongruous as Turkey was seeking to recalibrate its foreign policy away from episodes of tension in recent years.

"I still hope that Ankara will not go through with this," he tweeted, describing the move as unprecedented among NATO allies. "The foreign policy establishment is working hard to find a more acceptable formula. But time running out."

Erdogan has not always acted on threats.

In 2018, he said Turkey would boycott U.S. electronic goods in a dispute with Washington. Sales were unaffected. Last year, he called on Turks to boycott French goods over what he said was President Emmanuel Macron's "anti-Islam" agenda, but did not follow through.

CABINET MEETING

One diplomatic source said a decision could be taken at Monday's cabinet meeting and that de-escalation was still possible. Erdogan has said he will meet U.S. President Joe Biden at next weekend's G20 summit in Rome.

Erdogan has dominated Turkish politics for two decades but support for his ruling alliance has eroded ahead of elections scheduled for 2023, partly because of high inflation.

While the International Monetary Fund projects economic growth of 9% this year, inflation is more than double that, and the lira has fallen 50% against the dollar since Erdogan's last election victory in 2018.

Emre Peker, from the London-based consultancy Eurasia Group, said the threat of expulsions at a time of economic difficulties was "at best ill-considered, and at worst a foolish gambit to bolster Erdogan's plummeting popularity".

"Erdogan has to project power for domestic political reasons," he said.

In a joint statement on Oct. 18, the ambassadors of Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand and the United States called for a just and speedy resolution to Kavala's case, and for his "urgent release".

The European Court of Human Rights called for Kavala's immediate release two years ago, saying there was no reasonable suspicion that he had committed an offence.

Soner Cagaptay from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy tweeted: "Erdogan believes he can win the next Turkish elections by blaming the West for attacking Turkey -- notwithstanding the sorry state of the country's economy."

(Writing by Daren ButlerEditing by Dominic Evans and Giles Elgood)

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Erdogan's critics say demand for expulsions is distraction from economy woes - Yahoo News