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ISTANBUL

In Trkiyes critical elections on May 14, four candidates will be vying for the coveted office of president: the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Muharrem Ince, and Sinan Ogan.

By all assessments, the tight race for power largely hinges on voter sentiments about Trkiyes economic conditions, the performance of the various fragmented opposition blocs, and the reconstruction efforts after the devastating Feb. 6 earthquakes in the countrys south.

The opposition claims that the economic situation alone will be enough to thwart an Erdogan victory, while the presidents Justice and Development (AK) Party believes that government measures such as significant hikes in the minimum wage and salaries show his determination to tackle economic challenges.

AK Party officials also emphasize that the swift steps taken in the aftermath of the calamitous tremors have handed Erdogan a timely boost in popularity.

People looking to Erdogan for solutions

AK Party officials contend that Trkiyes economic challenges cannot be viewed independently of the global economic downturn, while also stressing that the earthquakes were a disaster that would test any country in the world.

In Erdogans own words, Trkiye will need nearly $104 billion for post-quake recovery efforts.

Despite all the challenges, AK Party members are confident that citizens recognize Erdogan as the right person to address the looming problems.

AK Party polls project a first-round win for Erdogan in the presidential race with a potential tally of 54%, according to Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, the partys provincial head for Istanbul.

One of the key questions in the surveys was related to the Feb. 6 disaster, which has also been a central theme for independent pollsters.

Both have found a majority of Turkish people believe that Erdogan not the opposition can shoulder the immense burden of recovery, particularly in areas such as housing, construction, and employment.

In the surveys, public confidence in Erdogan and his ability to manage the recovery process, particularly the three key areas, was around 70%, according to Kabaktepe.

Mustafa Sen, another AK Party official, said people know they can rely on Erdogan.

The people see the problems, but so does Erdogan. He does not deny or try to hide the issues. People are looking to Erdogan for solutions. They know he will heal the wounds caused by the earthquakes, he said.

There is another factor in all of this: the opposition has not done anything so far. People do not see any hope at the table of six parties.

The opposition has been vehement in criticizing the earthquake response, bashing the government for being slow and ineffective.

Erdogan, in response, has made it a point to show that rehabilitation of the quake-hit region remains the governments top priority.

Despite the battle at the ballot inching ever closer, his focus has been on the affected areas, making regular trips that have reassured the people that their problems matter far more to him than his election campaign.

He has been unequivocal in conveying that nothing is as important as helping the quake survivors rebuild their lives and get back on their feet.

Regardless of what others do, whatever fake agendas they pursue, we spend every single day focusing on issues related to the earthquakes, Erdogan recently said during a visit to the southern Kilis province.

Votes from all segments

Another reason for Erdogans strong standing is his pull among voters from Trkiyes myriad of ethnic and religious groups, according to Kabaktepe.

The AK Party is the largest party of Kurds. It is also the largest party of Turks. The AK Party is the only party present in all 81 provinces of Trkiye, regardless of regional and urban distinctions, he explained.

This is the only party that receives votes from all ethnic groups in Trkiye from all segments, including Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Laz, Circassians, Bosniaks, Georgians, and Abkhazians.

As always, the Kurdish vote remains a key factor in this Turkish election, with all sides vying for their crucial backing.

For the AK Party, surveys indicate support among Kurdish voters has grown for years now, and that trend is expected to be reflected in next months electoral contest.

Fragile opposition

The evident fragility of the opposition groups is another reason they have failed to inspire confidence in voters, according to AK Party officials.

The fractious six-party opposition bloc has put forward Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition CHP, as its presidential candidate, setting him up for his first electoral head-to-head with Erdogan.

The other two contenders are Muharrem Ince, a former CHP member who lost to Erdogan in the 2018 presidential race, and Sinan Ogan, the candidate nominated by a four-party alliance.

A candidate must secure more than 50% of votes to be elected in the first round. If none of the four manage to hit that figure, the two with the most votes will head to a runoff scheduled for May 28.

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'Man of the people': AK Party confident Erdogan ahead of rivals in tight election race - Anadolu Agency | English

ISTANBUL With Turkeys presidential and parliamentary electionsless than six weeks away on May 14, public opinion polls are showing a tight contest between the two dominant candidates President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Over the weekend one of Turkeys most respected polling companies, MetroPoll,revealed that its March research on voters attitudes showed a slender 2.6% lead for Kilicdaroglu, who heads the Republican Peoples Party (CHP) and is the candidate of the Nation Alliance.

Results from MetroPolls research since the start of the year saw Kilicdaroglu closing the gap. Support for Erdogan fell from 45.9% in January to 42% in March a period that saw Turkey hit by devastating earthquakes, leading to criticism of the governments response while those backing Kilicdaroglu rose from 43% to 44.6%.

However, further details show a more nuanced picture in the race between the two favorites.

Responding to the question of whether Kilicdaroglu would win the May 14 race, which could go to a runoff two weeks later if no candidate receives more than half of the votes, 43% said he would win while nearly 50% said he would not.

However, a growing number of people expect a Kilicdaroglu victory, up from nearly 32% in December, when some 60% said he would not win. In three months, the gap has closed to a great extent, MetroPoll director Ozer Sencar said.

The same question about Erdogan saw some 48% expecting the president to cement his third term of office while 45% said he would lose.

Asked their likelihood of voting for Kilicdaroglu, nearly 45% responded positively while more than 49% said they would not. Meanwhile, nearly 44% said they would back Erdogan and 52% refused to support his candidacy.

Commenting on Kilicdaroglus 2.6% lead, Sencar said the data showed that the fate of the election will be determined by Muharrem Ince and the undecided. Ince is one of the four presidential candidates. He stood against Erdogan for the CHP-led alliance in the 2018 election, when he was defeated in the first round.

Soner Cagaptay,director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, said Ince and the other candidate, Sinan Ogan, could drain votes from Kilicdaroglu, divide the opposition on May 14 and take the race to a runoff on May 28.

Other polls have shown greater levels of support for Kilicdaroglu. TAG Research last week showed the CHP leader at nearly 51.8% while Erdogan polled 42.6%. The other candidates, Ince and Ogan, received 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively.

In the partisan world of Turkish opinion polls, however, there are some predicting a win for Erdogan. A survey carried out by Optimar Research in March showed Erdogan ahead at 47.4% while Kilicdaroglu followed at 45.3%.

Among voter groups, research points to women and young people favoring the opposition.

Research published Thursday by the Social Democracy Foundation on womens voting intentions in the parliamentary election, which is to be held alongside the presidential vote, showed a switch from Erdogans Justice and Development Party (AKP) to the CHP.

Some 38% of respondents said they cast their ballots for the AKP in the 2018 parliamentary election but only 27% said they would vote for the ruling party in an immediate election. While 28% said they backed the CHP in 2018, that figure rose by two percentage points in the forthcoming vote.

Another crucial demographic is young voters. Some six million people will vote for the first time next month, a group that has known nothing but Erdogans 20-year rule. Around 13 million voters under the age of 25 will take part.

According to Erdal Akaltun, president of Bupar Research and Consultancy, eight out of 10 young people will vote for candidates from outside the AKP-led Peoples Alliance.

The possibility of a change in power in the existing order for the first time excites the youth, Akaltun said, citing a recent survey by his firm.

Edgar Sar, cofounder of the IstanPol Institute, said most young voters had been influenced by the governments increasingly authoritarian approach.

Generation Z was 15 years old during the Gezi Park period in 2013, he said, referring to nationwide anti-government protests a decade ago.From that age, they saw the period when the AKP started to become authoritarian and they could not access the social opportunities that the previous generation had.

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Neck and neck race in Turkey between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu - Al-Monitor

Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has angrily hit out at a visit paid by the American ambassador to Ankara to his main presidential election opponent, telling his supporters that they should teach theUS a lesson.

We need to teach America a lesson in these elections, said Erdogan, referencing US Ambassador Jeff Flakes visit to the oppositions joint candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu last week. Joe Biden speaks from there, what is Biden's ambassador doing here? He goes to visit Mr Kemal. It's a shame, give your head some work. You are the ambassador. Your interlocutor here is the president.

Prior to the April 2 remarksreported by Middle East Eyemade to a small gathering of people at an Istanbul branch of the Turkish ultra-nationalist Idealist Hearths group, commonly known as the Grey Wolves, Erdogan had said little that was critical of the West while on the campaign trail ahead of the May 14 national elections. But Flakes visit appeared to touch a nerve.

Referring to Flake, Erdogan also said: How are you going to ask for an appointment from the president from now on?

Our doors are now closed to him. You cannot see [me] anymore. Why? You will know your limit. You will know your duty as ambassador. You will learn how an ambassador works, he added.

Erdogan has never had a smooth relationship with the Biden administration. In August 2020, Erdogans officials were angered when an interview with Biden, filmed by the New York Times the previous December, was released featuring the then presidential candidate Biden describing the Turkish leader as an autocrat.

In the interview, Biden criticised Erdogans policy towards the Kurds, and added that, He has to pay a price, before stating that Washington should embolden Turkish opposition leaders to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process.

In a fair election, Turkeys pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP)could indeed prove to be the kingmaker that topples Erdogan. The HDP last month announced that it would not put forward its own presidential candidate. That move means its supporters can vote for Kilicdaroglu. The Kurds account for up to a fifth of Turkeys population.

Election tensions were heightened on March 31 after two bullets hit the Istanbul office of the opposition IYI (Good) party.

A night guard at a nearby construction site was apprehended and, according to the authorities, told police that he accidentally hit the party's office building with gunshots while he was chasing thieves.

However, IYI party leader Meral Aksener linked the incident to inflammatory comments made toward her by Erdogan earlier in the week. In those remarks, Erdogan snapped at Akseners criticism of him, saying: She is messing with the wrong people. Be careful, dont get yourself in trouble with me.

Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, has promised that if elected he will repeal the law that makes insulting the president a crime.

On the markets, bond traders have been trimming bearish Turkey bets on a possible Erdogan defeat.

By some accounts, Erdogan sees a path to victory in a second round of run-off voting that would be opened up by a strong performance by a third candidate, Muharrem Ince, in the first round.

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Angry Erdogan wants election victory 'to teach America a lesson' - bne IntelliNews

The Americans and the British tried to draw Turkey into a war with Russia, and only thanks to the efforts of the authorities it did not happen, said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to him, there were about ten versions of emergencies, including military provocations, killing of diplomats, terrorist attacks, hijacking of tourists, accidents with grain carriers and even an explosion at a nuclear power plant, followed by blaming Russia. All of these actions, according to the politician, could be aimed at weakening Turkey itself, selling it weapons and creating havoc on the entire coast. Erdogan did not rule out the possibility of his physical elimination, because against the background of the explosions of the Crimean bridge or the Northern Streams it is not a problematic operation for the Anglo-Saxons at all, and it does not matter at all how many people will die in the process.

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Erdogan declares that the West tried to draw Turkey into war with ... - TVR

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to take the Eurasianist Patriotic Party (Vatan) into his electoral alliance for the 14 May polls, according toDogu Perincek, the chairman of the party.

Perincek said in a press conference on Wednesday that he held two separate meetings with Erdogan to discuss the possibility of joining the Peoples Alliance, led by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

He personally told me that he doesnt want to run with the Vatan Party in the elections, he said. We have to declare it out loud: the Peoples Alliances decision to reject the Vatan Party is no doubt a choice.

"They have chosen the path of submission tothe United States over Turkeys independence and security.

Perincek represents a fringe element of political ideology in Turkey that is an unusual combination of Turkish ultra-nationalism, Maoist leftism and ultra-secularism along with close ties to Russia, China and Syria.

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The Turkish public has always been aware of the existence of Eurasianists - nationalists who see Turkey's aims and geography linked to Russia and China - within the senior ranks of the armed forces and state bureaucracy.

Perincek was specifically angry at the fact that Erdogan decided to add the Islamist pro-Kurdish Free Cause Party (Huda-Par) to his alliance despite the fact that they are separatists.

The opposition rallies against Huda Par due to its association with the armed group Hizbullah, a Turkey-based Kurdish organisation that targeted feminist conservative intellectuals and state officers in the 1990s in a series of brutal assassinations. The movement later disavowed violence.

They have made an effort to justify their cooperation with Huda Par, which has included in its programme a pledge to remove the concept of the Turkish nation from the constitution and aims to make Kurdish the official language, Perincek said.

Erdogans decision to employ a more independent foreign policy following the 2016 coup attempt empowered Perincek, who is believed to have followers within the state.

The degree of his influence within actual policy-making circles is a subject of debate, but Erdogans flourishing ties with Moscow and Beijing in recent years earned Perincek outsized media attention.

He travelled to those countries, claiming to play a mediating role, even in the recent reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus.

Who is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the man charged with removing Erdogan?

Selim Koru, an analyst at the Ankara-based Tepav think tank, believes Erdogan doesnt really like Perincek due to his attitude that gives too much importance to him and his party in relations with Moscow and Beijing.

It is as if he alone is going to bridge the differences after Turkey leans towards the Eurasian axis, Koru told Middle East Eye. He doesnt have votes, and he doesnt bring anything to the table. He doesnt mean anything.

Perincek struggled to collect 100,000 signatures that are required to run for the presidential race scheduled for 14 May. He couldnt pass 25,000.

In the 2018 presidential elections, he was able to collect 110,000 signatures. But he only received 98,000 votes.

One of Erdogan's close friends, businessman Ethem Sancak, is now a deputy chairman of the Patriotic Party, after having been forced to leave the AKP due to a statement which suggested Erdogan and his party were brought to power thanks to Washington.

Sancak also criticised Turkey for providing drones and weaponry to Ukraine against Russia last year.

Koru believes Erdogan doesnt want any trouble during the election period, and certainly wouldnt want to draw Western attention to a fringe party as an alliance partner that doesnt offer anything to him.

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Turkey elections: Erdogan 'rejects alliance' with Eurasianist party - Middle East Eye