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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was mayor of Istanbul when a devastating earthquake hit Izmit in 1999, killing more than 17,000 people and devastating the countrys economy. The governments shambolic response to the natural disaster created an opportunity for Erdogan to burnish his credentials as a capable and compassionate leader, setting the stage for his election as premier in 2003.

Erdogan has maintained an iron rule ever since, outliving economic downturns, refugee crises, corruption scandals, protests movements, and even a coup attempt. But with the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections just around the corner, seismic shifts both literal and figurative are threatening to upend the presidents grip on power for the first time in two decades.

The most obvious challenge to Erdogans reelection is his botched response to the earthquakes that rocked Turkey and Syria in February, which claimed over 45,000 lives and internally displaced some two million people across ten provinces. Accounts from the ground broadcast over social media told a story of overwhelming government incompetence, from delayed rescue efforts and assistance to affected areas to misuse of available resources to an inability to quell unrest and establish public order. Many Turkish citizens also blame Erdogans consolidation of power and populist policies for allowing shoddy construction to grow unchecked. While the president may be able to weaponize his control of the media and government spending to contain the immediate political fallout, the damage to his credibility as a steady hand is already done.

Read More: How Erdoans Obsession With Power Got in the Way of Turkeys Earthquake Response

The second and perhaps more significant challenge to Erdogans rule is a main opposition bloc that is for the first time in ages united behind a joint presidential candidate, Peoples Republican Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Kilicdaroglu has surprised everyone by managing to consolidate much of Turkeys notoriously fractious opposition under the umbrella of the Nation Alliance, which comprises social-democrat, center-right, right-wing, and Islamist parties, at the same time as hes expanded support for the bloc.

To have a shot at beating Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu needs to win over the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) and its left-wing Labor and Freedom Alliancethe elections kingmakerswithout alienating his biggest coalition partner, the Turkish nationalist and conservative Good Party (IP). This is a tricky balancing act but one hes proving capable of pulling off. The CHP leader successfully mended his relationship with the IP after a public row over his engagement with the HDP, and the HDP has already signaled its support for Kilicdaroglu by refraining from fielding a candidate of its own.

Recent polls accordingly show Kilicdaroglu leading the president, although neither candidate likely to attain a first-round win. As things stand, the HDP is also likely to hand the anti-Erdogan Nation Alliance a slim majority in parliament. Critically, an opposition victory in the parliamentary elections would boost Kilicdaroglus chances in the second round of the presidential contest.

Of course, its too early to say whether Kilicdaroglu will be able to hold the coalition together and sustain his momentum. For example, the HDP could make demands that are non-starters for IP such as cabinet posts or regional autonomy, which would undermine opposition unity.

Erdogan is also a skilled politician with ample experience leveraging his bully pulpit. Having already dismantled or hollowed out most independent checks on his power, including the military, the judiciary, and the media, the president will use any means at his disposalhowever heavy-handed or anti-democraticto tilt the scales in his favor. At a minimum, he will ramp up state-financed handouts to buy votes and try to link the HDP with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to paint his chief rival as a terrorist sympathizer. Should he feel cornered enough, he could jail opposition leaders under false pretenses and criminalize dissent. Yet nothing he does at this point is likely to earn the president much genuine support outside of his core voter baseeven if fear tactics and repression help him secure another term.

One thing is clear: In the 20 years hes been in power, Erdogans political fortunes have never been on shakier footing.

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Erdogan's Political Reign Has Never Been on Shakier Footing - TIME

The final formalities include an invitation to join from Nato's Secretary General, which is to be signed in Washington, most likely by Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green).

1.4 12:43Updated 1.4 17:18

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has confirmed the Turkish parliament's decision to ratify Finland's Nato membership, several Turkish media outlets reported on Saturday. The president's final decision has been published in Turkey's official gazette.

The Turkish parliament decided late on Thursday to ratify Finland's Nato membership. The president's signature concludes Ankara's drawn-out ratification of Finnish membership, which has been pending since last summer. Under Turkish law, Erdogan had up to 15 days to sign the ratification and he waited nearly that long to sign North Macedonia's Nato ratification in 2020.

Turkey must still deliver the document ratifying Finland's Nato membership to Washington, DC, where the original 1947 Nato treaty is stored. Once the Turkish document is in the custody of the US State Department, Finland will be a Nato member state.

Turkey has not yet said when it plans to ratify Sweden's Nato application, which was filed at the same time as Finland's last May. The decision will not take place before Turkish elections in mid-May.

The final formalities include an invitation to join from Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, upon which a Finnish representative most likely Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) will go to Washington to sign the letter.

On Friday evening, Haavisto told the tabloid Ilta-Sanomat that he expected the entire procedure to be completed within days, and that Finland would officially become a member next week.

He said that Hungary, which became the 29th Nato ally to approve Finnish membership last Monday, was expected to deliver its acceptance document to Washington on Friday.

"I haven't heard anything new from Hungary. The last time I spoke with Foreign Minister Pter Szijjrt, he said that they would make their ratification deposit in Washington on Friday morning local time. We're relying on this information," Haavisto said.

While campaigning in Helsinki on Saturday, Haavisto told Yle that he expects the invitation from Stoltenberg on Monday or Tuesday.

After that, a Finnish envoy will travel to Washington to deposit Finland's application documents with the US State Department.

"This is exactly what we are discussing, schedules and so on. As soon as the invitation comes from Nato, we'll see. In any case, it will be signed by the foreign minister," Haavisto said.

"If the last pieces fall into place, Finland will celebrate Easter as a new member of Nato," Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen (Cen) said in a tweet on Saturday.

13.23: Updated with confirmation of publication in gazette, other details

17.17: Updated with Haavisto and Kaikkonen comments.

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Erdogan has signed ratification of Finland's Nato membership - YLE News

Turkey'sparliament ratifiedFinland's application to join NATO on Thursday. In doing so, it became the final of 30 NATO member states to support Finland's accession, clearing the last major hurdle for the country to join the military alliance.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoganblessed Finland's candidacy earlier this month after months of negotiations.

"This evening, we are keeping the promises we made to Finland," ruling party lawmaker Akif Cagatay Kilic said moments before the vote.Lawmakers unanimously voted in favor of the Nordic country's accession.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Turkey's ratification, saying it will make the military alliance "stronger and safer."

Finland, which sharesa 1,300-kilometer(800-mile) border with Russia, is now only a few formalities away from becoming NATO's 31st member. Officials expect the process to be finalized as early as next week.

Fearing that they would be next targeted after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, Finland and Sweden abandoned their traditional position of military non-alignment and applied for NATO membership in May 2022.

Admitting a new country requires unanimity among all member nations.

Sweden's bid is still on hold due to Erdogan's demands to address certain security-related issues.

Hungary approvedFinland's bid to join NATO last week butthe vote on Sweden has not yet been put on the parliamentary agenda.

A spokesman for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Wednesday called on Sweden to "clear the air" and address "an ample amount of grievances" for parliament to ratify its bid.

Just last week, SwedishForeign Minister Tobias Billstrom had said that "it goes without saying" that his country would become a member by the time of the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.

But on Thursday, he told the Swedish national news agency TT that he had noted Budapest's recent remarks and had to alter his words.

"I think 'hopeful' in this context is better," he added.

fb, lo/sri(AFP, dpa)

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Turkey becomes last NATO member to ratify Finland's bid - DW (English)

Turkey and Azerbaijan are ready to provide all support to Hungary in the field of gas supply, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday at a joint press conference following talks with Hungarian President Katalin Novk.

In his speech, Erdogan referred to the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP) as a guarantee that will connect to the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and transport natural gas from Azerbaijans Shah Deniz gas field to Europe.

Turkey plays a key role in addressing the energy crisis in Europe, as well as being essential to guarantee Hungarys security of supply, since the TurkStream is now the only East-West gas pipeline on the continent operating at full capacity. Last year, 4.8 billion cubic meters of gas arrived in Hungary via this route, which is about half of the the countrys total consumption, so its loss would make the supply impossible.

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Azerbaijan also has an important role in Hungarys energy security. Last December, a quadrilateral agreement had been reached which will allow Hungary to import green electricity from Azerbaijan via a new cable through Georgia and Romania.

Speaking about Turkish-Hungarian relations, Erdogan also thanked Hungary for its support during the rescue efforts after the earthquakes in southern Turkey on February 6. He said that the helping hand was a direct expression of our deep friendship, adding that Hungarian troops rescued 35 Turks from the rubble.

He also indicated that the 6th meeting of the Turkish-Hungarian High Level Strategic Cooperation Council will be held in Budapest in December.

This was confirmed earlier by Prime Minister Viktor Orbn as well when he met Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlt Cavusoglu in January. The two sides discussed at the time to further strengthen bilateral relations between Hungary and Turkey.

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Featured photo via Facebook/South East Med Energy & Defense

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Turkey Ready to Support Gas Supplies - Hungary Today

Susan Frazer| Associated Press

Few signs of progress in high-level Ukraine talks

Few signs of progress were reported as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.N. Secretary-General Antnio Guterres met with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy in a high-powered bid to ratchet down the war with Russia. (Aug. 19)

AP

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking a third consecutive term in officein elections in May, marked 20 years in power in March.

The 69-year-old, who served as prime minister from 2003-2014 and as president thereafter, started as a reformist who expanded rights and freedoms, allowing his majority-Muslim country to start European Union membership negotiations.

He later reversed course, cracking down on dissent, stifling the media and passing measures that eroded democracy.

The presidential and parliamentary elections set for May 14 could be Erdogansmost challenging yet. They will be held amid economic turmoil and high inflation, just three months after a devastating earthquake thatkilled tens of thousands.

Heres a look at some of the key dates during Erdogans rule:

March 27, 1994: Erdogan is elected mayor of Istanbul, running on the pro-Islamic Welfare Party ticket.

Dec. 12, 1997: Erdogan is convicted of inciting hatred for reading a poem that the courts deem to be in violation of Turkeys secular principles, and sentenced to four months in prison.

Aug. 14, 2001: Erdogan, who broke away from the Welfare Party with other members of its reformist wing, forms the conservative Justice and Development Party, or AKP.

Nov. 3, 2002: A year after it is founded, AKP wins a parliamentary majority in general elections. Erdogan however, is barred from running due to his conviction.

March 9, 2003: Erdogan is elected to parliament in a by-election after his political ban is lifted.

March 14, 2003: Erdogan replaces his AKP colleague Abdullah Gul as prime minister.

Oct. 3, 2005: Turkey begins accession talks with the European Union after Erdogans government introduces a series of reforms.

July 22, 2007: Erdogan wins 46.6% of the votes in general elections.

March 31, 2008: Constitutional Court accepts an indictment seeking the AKPs closure for acts allegedly in violation of secularism. The court eventually rules not to shutter the party but cuts treasury financing for political parties.

October 20, 2008: The first of a series of trials against military officers, lawmakers and public figures begins. The suspects are accused of plotting to overthrow the government, in what turn out to be sham trials based on faked evidence and designed to eliminate Erdogans opponents. The trials were later blamed on the network of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen. Gulen has lived in the Pocono Mountains in self-imposed exile since 1999.

Local opinion: This notable Pocono resident has been living here in exile since 1999. | Moving Mountains

Sept. 12, 2010: Erdogan wins a referendum on constitutional changes that allow the government to appoint high court judges, curb the powers of the military and ensure presidents are elected by a national vote rather than by parliament.

June 12, 2011: Erdogan wins general elections with a landslide 49.8% of the vote.

May 28, 2013: Nationwide anti-government protests erupt over plans to cut down trees in Istanbuls central Gezi Park. Turkeys largest ever protests result in eight deaths, while the government is accused of using excessive force against protesters.

Aug. 10, 2014: Erdogan wins Turkeys first presidential election held by direct popular vote. Although the post is largely ceremonial, he is accused of exceeding his powers and meddling in the running of the country.

June 7, 2015: The AKP, headed by Ahmet Davutoglu after Erdogan became president, loses its majority in parliamentary elections, and is forced to seek a coalition.

Nov. 1, 2015: AKP regains a parliamentary majority in re-run elections following months of insecurity, including suicide bombings by the Islamic State group and reignition of a decades-long conflict with Kurdish militants.

July 15, 2016: Erdogans government survives a military coup attempt blamed on followers of Poconos-based cleric Gulen, a former ally. The failed coup results in nearly 290 deaths. The government then embarks on a large-scale crackdown on Gulens network, arresting tens of thousands and purging more than 130,000 from government jobs. Many media and nongovernmental organizations are closed down and the crackdown then expands to critics, including Kurdish lawmakers and journalists. The EU accession talks, which had made slow progress, are frozen amid the democratic backtracking.

From 2020: Chestnut Retreat Center offers a look inside their Saylorsburg facility and its mission

April 16, 2017: Voters in a referendum narrowly approve switching the countrys political system from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidential system, abolishing the post of prime minister and concentrating a vast amount of power in the hands of the president. Critics call the system a one-man rule.

June 24, 2018: Erdogan wins presidential elections with 52.59% of the vote, becoming Turkeys first president with executive powers, while his partys alliance with a nationalist party secures a majority in parliament.

June 22, 2019: Erdogans party loses re-run election for Istanbul mayor by a landslide after it contests March elections which the main opposition partys candidate had narrowly won. Its the first time since Erdogans mayoral win in 1994 that his party and its predecessors lose Turkeys most important city.

Feb. 6, 2023: A powerful earthquakedevastates parts of Turkey and Syria, killing more than 48,000 people in Turkey. Erdogans government is criticized for its poor response to the disaster and for failing to prepare the country for a large-scale quake.

Associated Press writer Zeynep Bilginsoy contributed from Istanbul.

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Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a third term in May - Pocono Record