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Turkey's president firing his central bank head over the weekend will only add to the "mess" in the country, said Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday sacked yet another central bank chief, the third to be fired in two years.

During Naci Agbal's five-month stint, he raised Turkey's interest rate by around 450 basis points to 19%. Economists believe rate hikes were needed to control inflation and stabilize the lira.

Agbal's replacement, Sahap Kavcioglu, has said higher rates won't solve economic problems in Turkey and is expected to be more compliant to Erdogan's orders.

(Erdogan) wants someone who will work based on a political agenda, which is a disaster recipe for central bankers.

Naguib Sawiris

Egyptian billionaire

"I predict that it is only going to add to the mess," said Sawiris, Orascom Investment Holding chairman and CEO. "The inflation is very high, and trying to push down the interest rate when you want to defend your currency is not the right decision," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Wednesday.

Sawiris added that it's not a good idea to mix politics with economic issues or finance.

"(Erdogan) wants someone who will work based on a political agenda, which is a disaster recipe for central bankers," he said. "Central bankers have to react to economic realities of their country."

Turkey's lira plunged on Monday as the market reacted to the news.

The office of the Turkish Presidency did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Sawiris also weighed in on Turkey's foreign policy.

"(Erdogan) did a 180-degree turnaround now, and he's trying to appease Egypt improve his relations with Europe and so on," he said.

Earlier this month, Turkey said it restarted diplomatic contact with Egypt. Relations between the two countries have been tense since Egypt's military overthrew a president who was close to Turkey.

"I think it's based on the new administration in the U.S. who are not so happy with his behavior, buying the Russian rockets, interfering in the whole Middle East with his troops and also supporting some terrorist groups," Sawiris said.

Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, executive chairman of Orascom Telecom.

Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Additionally, Egypt's alliances with regional partners were not in Turkey's favor.

"You get sweet talk from diplomats that this is not against anyone, no it's against Turkey because of their frantic behavior," he said.

Erdogan's attempts to "appease Egypt" are a "win for Egyptian diplomacy," said Sawiris.

"We don't need any more wars in the region so I think it's good," he said.

Separately, Sawiris said the U.S. under the Biden administration should return to direct negotiations with North Korea on the nuclear issue, instead of asking China for help.

"My advice is just do the same thing like what Donald Trump did in the beginning. He called the leadership there, sat down with them, went to visit and talked," he said.

He acknowledged that discussions fell apart because the two sides could not reach an agreement on sanctions relief and denuclearization, but said these things can be negotiated.

"I don't think that the differences are too big. They can be bridged, but people just have to forget about ego and who calls who first and so on, and just give them the respect that they want," Sawiris said.

He also said his view on oil hitting $100 has not changed.

"It's a very simple mathematics many producers have shut their production facilities once (oil prices) hit the $30 range, and followed by all the shale producers too," he said.

Sawiris also noted that some countries in Europe are still in lockdown, and that influences oil demand and prices. Parts of Europe reintroduced lockdown measures amid a third wave of Covid infections.

"I still hold to my theory that there is only one way, and it will go up," he said.

In May 2020, he told CNBC that the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia killed the competition, and that prices would hit $100 in 18 months.

CNBC's Natasha Turak and Emma Graham contributed to this report.

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Turkey's Erdogan sacking of central bank chief is 'only going to add to the mess,' Egyptian billionaire says - CNBC

Turkey's recent decision to pull out of the Istanbul Convention, which drew international criticism, was asurprising one. The Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence against Women and Domestic Violence was established 2011 to prevent violence against women and prosecute perpetrators.

President Recep Tayyap Erdogan has now justified the move by saying the convention was being used by certain groups to, as he put it, "normalize homosexuality," which the government's directorofcommunications Fahrettin Altunsaid in a statement was incompatible with Turkey's social and family values.

Pesidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun

"Turkey is not the only country with concerns aboutthe Istanbul Convention,"the statement read."Six members of the European Union (Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia) did not ratify the Istanbul Convention. Polandhas taken steps to withdraw from the Convention, citing an attempt by the LGBT community to impose their ideas about gender on the entire society."

US President Joe Biden rebuked Turkey for reneging on the agreement

The Turkish leader signed the bill to leave the convention on March 20, drawing international ire. Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called the move a dangerous signal to the rest of the world, while EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the convention provided women with important legal protections against violence. US President Joe Biden meanwhile said he was "deeply disappointed" by the decision.

Women's groups in Turkey are equally disappointed, calling the decision both illegal and invalid. Canan Gll, the President of the Federation of Women's Associations, told DW that the decision strips women of their right to live in a violence-free environment. "Women are being treated like a sack of garbage thrown out on the street and everyone who walks by can give it a kick. And that kick is also a bullet fired from a gun. We women will never forget this."

President of the Federation of Women's Associations, Canan Gll is outraged by the move

Turkish lawyers, meanwhile, say it's very difficult to just pull out of an international accord and describe President Erdogan's unilateral move as extremely unusual. Serap Yazici, an expert on constitutional law, points out that withdrawal from such agreements must follow specific rules: Turkey's parliament must first pass a law announcing Ankara's exit from the convention before President Erdogan can act on the law.

Women, she said, should fight the president's move in court. "I invite all women to launch invalidity proceedings to stop this, she said.

Her appeal was heard. An organization fighting for the rights of women and children in Turkey has already filed a suit against the government. The group is arguing that the president does not have the power to invalidate an international agreement that was passed by parliament, simply by decree.

Many in Turkey have little sympathy with President Erdogan's decision to leave the convention, especially when considering the country's high femicide rates. There is widespread criticism that too little is done to protect women in Turkey from violence.

Thanks to social media and women's groups, the pressure is now being turned up on the government, which together with law enforcement authorities refuses to acknowledge that a problem even exists - despite that fact that 300 women were killed in Turkey last year alone, according to the organization "We will stop the murder of women."An additional 171 deaths last year were flagged by the authorities as "suspicious."Many of those deaths were registered as suspected suicides.

Turkey's exit from the Istanbul Convention is a significant step backwards. Many Turkish women saw the accord as their last hope, with the international community agreeing to establish the conditions necessary to protect women from violence. Turkey ratified the pact in 2014 and by doing so, legalized such protections. But in practice, critics say, these protections are rarely enforced. Even before the president decided to leave the pact, the Istanbul Convention was failing to prevent violence against women.

Originally posted here:
Bizarre reasoning aside, Erdogans exit from Istanbul Convention is unconstitutional - DW (English)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has come under criticism for holding his partys congress inside a packed sports complex amid a new surge of COVID-19 cases

ByThe Associated Press

March 24, 2021, 4:32 PM

2 min read

ANKARA, Turkey -- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came under criticism Wednesday for holding his partys congress inside a packed sports complex amid a new surge of COVID-19 cases.

Thousands of ruling party supporters filled the stands of the 10,400-capacity complex in Ankara despite the Turkish governments social distancing rules. Videos posted on social media purported to show busloads of ruling party supporters traveling to the capital to attend the congress, many without masks. Wearing masks in public spaces is mandatory in Turkey.

Erdogan spoke for nearly two hours at the event, presenting his vision for when the country marks the centenary of the Turkish Republic in 2023, when the country is also scheduled to hold presidential and parliamentary elections. He said he cut remarks short in order not to expose congress participants to the virus.

Murat Emir, a physician and lawmaker from Turkeys main opposition party, described the scenes from the party congress as shameful, writing on Twitter that the event showed disregard for the health workers who work day and night in the battle against the pandemic.

Former Ankara mayor Melih Gokcek, a member of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, maintained that delegates were tested for the coronavirus before attending the congress.

Erdogan has been criticized for holding similarly crowded local party congresses across the country in past weeks despite the pandemic. During one such event, he boasted about the size of the crowd.

Turkey reported close to 30,000 new COVID-19 infections on Wednesday, weeks after the government eased restrictions in dozens of provinces under a so-called controlled normalization program. The country also reported 146 deaths in the past 24 hours.

On March 1, the government divided Turkeys provinces into four risk categories and allowed restaurants and cafes to reopen in low, medium and high-risk areas. Weekend lockdowns were also eased in those provinces, although nighttime curfews introduced in late November remain in place across Turkey.

Read more from the original source:
Erdogan under fire for packed congress despite virus surge ...

Recent interest-rate shifts in the U.S. and other developed economies were bound to have consequences for emerging markets, and it looks like Turkey is first in the dock. The lira plunged about 14% versus the dollar Monday in an incipient crisis that is mostly but not entirely the fault of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This weeks lira ruction was caused by Mr. Erdogans sacking on Saturday of the head of the central bank. The main sin of the deposed monetary maestro, Naci Agbal, was to wage an aggressive battle against inflation. He had raised the policy rate to 19% from 10.25% in an attempt to stabilize consumer prices that rose 15.6% year-on-year in February. Mr. Erdogan prefers to goose economic growth as much as possible no matter the inflationary consequences, and he seems to believe that higher interest rates cause higher prices.

Mr. Erdogans bad economic management isnt news. Turkey on his watch has suffered repeated crises of various sorts, most recently with another inflation spike that became a currency crash in 2018. But two differences are notable this time.

One is that investors had convinced themselves Mr. Erdogan had finally seen the light on economic policy, and now claim to be surprised that he hasnt. Mr. Agbals appointment in November, along with the resignation of Mr. Erdogans son-in-law who had been finance minister, was heralded as a sign that competent people would be in charge of macroeconomic policy. Yet Mr. Erdogan is Turkeys biggest economic problem and guess what, folks: Theres still gambling at Ricks.

The other new factor is the global economic environment, which is much less hospitable than during the last Turkish crisis two years ago. The pandemic is straining economies everywhere, and Turkey has been hit especially hard by the collapse of travel due to its reliance on tourism. With the summer vacation season in doubt, especially for Turkeys many European visitors, its not clear how the country can start earning its way out of the financial hole.

Read more:
Erdogan Tanks the Turkish Lira - The Wall Street Journal

The leaders of the European Union and Turkey held talks by videoconferenceon Friday, ahead of next week's EU summit that will address the bloc's relations with Ankara.

"We underlined the importance of sustained de-escalation and of further strengthening confidence-building to allow for a more positive EU-Turkey agenda," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement after the discussion.

"The presidents also exchanged views on the situation of Syrian refugees hosted in Turkeyas well as the wider regional situation including Libya and Syria," the EU statement added.

The video call between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel was arranged to try to improve ties between Brussels and Ankara that had become fraught in recent years.

The issuesinclude: Erdogan's power grab and the rollback of democracy, Turkey's involvement in conflicts in Libya, Syria and indirectlyNagorno-Karabakh, a spat over energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and accusations that Ankara has used Syrian refugees staying in the country as a political pawn to win EU concessions.

EU foreign ministers are expected to discuss a joint report on relations with Turkey on Monday ahead of thesummit ofEU heads of state and government later in the week.

Leaders are expected to discuss updating a 2016 migrant deal under which Turkey has curbed entries into Europe in exchange forfinancial support from Brussels.

Erdogan told the video call that Turkey expects next week's discussions to "pave the way for concrete work," on rebuilding ties, his office said.

The Turkish president said he hopes the EU report will reflect "objective and constructive views" on how Turkey-EU relations can move forward.

Erdogan called on Brussels not to allow Greece and Greek Cypriots to gang up on Turkey, and instead urged increased dialogue to resolve the eastern Mediterranean dispute.

During Friday's talks, the three leaders also discussed the possibility of a visit to Turkey soon, according to an EU statement.

Turkey and Greece have been at odds overmaritime boundaries and natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, which saw Brussels threaten Ankara with sanctions, although these have since been put on hold.

Turkey had sent navy warships to protect its research vessels operating in the disputed waters, but has since softened its stance.

The EU is also closely following UN efforts to restart peace talks over Cyprus in which Turkey is a key player.

mm/rs (AFP, dpa)

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EU chiefs urge Turkey's Erdogan to ease strained ties with bloc - DW (English)