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In April 2011, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan laid out his vision for a nearly 50-kilometre canal linking the Marmara and Black seas parallel to the Bosphorus Strait, some 20km to the east. A decade later, after countless stops and starts, Turkish officials expect to break ground next month on the $20 billion project, which Mr Erdogan himself describes as crazy.

A growing chorus of critics might agree. Leading the charge is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, widely seen as Mr Erdogans main challenger in the next presidential vote, set for 2023. He views the project as a betrayal, arguing that locals need jobs and health and financial security a great deal more than a pricey new waterway. Nearly three of every four Istanbul residents concurs, according to a 2019 survey.

Istanbul represents one-fifth of Turkeys population and more than one-third of its gross domestic product. But the Turkish economy has been stagnant since a mid-2018 currency crisis, with a steadily declining lira, massive foreign debt and persistently high inflation and unemployment. The pandemic has made matters worse, driving more than 1.5 million Turks into poverty. And a few days ago, Turkey entered its harshest lockdown yet amid record-high Covid-19 deaths.

Mr Erdogan has vowed to go ahead with the canal, arguing that it will attract much-needed foreign investment and spark economic activity. Top Turkish officials and wealthy foreigners have reportedly snapped up land along the planned route, leading to a sharp increase in real estate prices.

The government estimates the canal will generate $5bn in annual transit fees and curb traffic on the Bosphorus, which sees about three times as many ships as the Suez or Panama canal. Many critics denounce the proposal out of environmental concerns, citing predictions that the canal will destroy great swathes of farmland and the coastal habitats of many species and imperil marine ecosystems from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.

Yet due to congestion, sharp turns, narrow stretches and bottom currents, accidents on the Istanbul strait are not uncommon. In 1999, a Russian tanker split in two near the mouth of the Bosphorus, spilling 1,500 tonnes of oil that contaminated nearby beaches for two years. Last months lodged container ship in the Suez Canal, which halted traffic for nearly a week and cost Egypt millions of dollars, seems a decent advertisement for Canal Istanbul.

The 1936 Montreux Convention ensures free passage for civilian vessels through the Turkish Straits (the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles), while giving Turkey considerable control over the passage of naval vessels of non-Black Sea states. Top Justice and Development Party (AKP) officials have asserted that the new canal would enable Turkey to void the convention and establish new regulations. But this is highly unlikely, particularly as Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear to Mr Erdogan that Montreux is a red line.

Assuming Montreux remains in effect, leading Bosphorus analyst Yoruk Isik estimates that during normal economic times shipping vessels wait an average of 20 hours to transit the strait. If true, shipping firms would have some incentive to pay for speedier, safer no-wait transit through the new canal, which will be nearly straight and potentially easier to navigate.

Mr Erdogan might also be driven by ego. Blessed with rolling hills and glistening waterways, Istanbul has for nearly three millennia provided leaders looking to cement their legacy with an ideal natural canvas. Byzas and Constantine lent the city their names. Justinian gave the world Hagia Sophia. Theodosius left his still-standing walls.

Then came the Ottomans lofty mosques and pencil-thin minarets, mostly designed by Mimar Sinan, the favoured architect of Suleyman the Magnificent, the 16th-century sultan. Mr Erdogan has already copied this style, building Turkeys largest mosque overlooking the Bosphorus from Istanbuls Asian side. But these are mere ornaments pinned on a well-aged beauty.

A second Bosphorus that transforms the city centre into an island would be an unprecedented makeover one that proved too much even for Mr Erdogans greatest predecessors. Sultan Suleyman, who ruled the empire at its peak and led it to the gates of Vienna, first floated the concept of a man-made Black Sea-Marmara waterway five centuries ago. Mimar Sinan was even said to have begun devising a route plan before the effort was abandoned.

Succeeding sultans similarly mulled the idea before finding other projects to keep them busy. The concept has also been resurrected a few times in the Republican era, including as recently as 1991 when the head of an Istanbul commission argued it would reduce maritime traffic, cutting pollution and environmental risk.

Bringing this project to fruition after so many others failed would be the capstone on the Turkish Presidents rise from the rough streets of Kasimpasa to unsurpassed greatness. Istanbul will become a city with two seas passing through it, Mr Erdogan proclaimed in 2011.

Nearly three of every four Istanbul residents are against the project

It is fitting that this may be his defining project. After taking power in 2003, Mr Erdogan took control of the public housing agency, TOKI. Over the next decade, construction in Turkey leapt five-fold as building became an economic driver and electoral tool. TOKI builds many kinds of projects to win voters, economist Mustafa Sonmez told me in 2013. Sometimes a mosque, a stadium, sometimes military compounds and malls whatevers needed.

Mr Erdogan launched one mega-project after another: a third bridge across the Bosphorus, the worlds largest airport, a railway tunnel beneath the Bosphorus, a billion-dollar port complex, a mosque looming over Taksim Square. His construction-focused agenda is one of his most successful political schemes, and one of his most despised.

The building boom was backed by his base and the AKP inner circle, many of whom reportedly profited from no-bid contracts running into the billions of dollars. It also inspired the largest wave of opposition to Mr Erdogan. In mid-2013, millions of Turks joined weeks of nationwide demonstrations that initially began to protest the razing of Gezi Park in central Istanbul.

A decade later, one wonders if Turkeys leader should have paid more mind. He always argued that the new airport, bridge and canal were key to his vision of boosting Turkeys prestige and raising GDP to $2 trillion by 2023. The centennial of the republic is now just two years away, but the Turkish economy is more than 60 per cent short of that target.

Meanwhile, the projects that have been completed look like boondoggles. Istanbul Airport opened in April 2019. Less than a year later, and weeks before the pandemic cratered the travel industry, Chinas ICBC bank was in talks to refinance $6.2bn of its loans.

The third Bosphorus bridge and adjoining Marmara Motorway opened in 2016 and soon under-performed to the extent that the Italian-Turkish consortium overseeing them walked away. Now Turkey is preparing to make a Chinese consortium the majority owner of the bridge and motorway, according to ANKA Review columnist Aygen Aytac.

Beijing is suddenly all over Mr Erdogans prestige projects. Chinas two largest port operators are the majority owners of Istanbuls Kumport, which is conveniently located on the north-western rim of the Marmara Sea, near the southern end of the planned canal. Top Chinese tech firm ZTE owns 48 per cent of Turkeys top telecoms firm, which oversees communications at Istanbul Airport, close to the planned canals northern end.

Last week, six Turkish banks, including the countrys three largest private banks, said they were unlikely to invest in the canal due to environmental concerns. This followed news that Chinese banks are considering a multi-billion-dollar investment in the planned canal, which would be incorporated into Beijings expansive Belt and Road Initiative.

Due to economic troubles and waning AKP support, the likeliest outcome for Canal Istanbul may be the bridge-to-nowhere scenario, under which construction would begin but then pause indefinitely if Mr Erdogan is voted out. But even if the canal does come to fruition, it may come to be seen not as Mr Erdogans crowning glory, but as an early sign of Chinas conquest of the great Ottoman capital.

David Lepeska is a Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs columnist for The National

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Erdogan's $20bn canal to nowhere - The National

Harut Sassounian

BY HARUT SASSOUNIAN

The Armenian Patriarch of Turkey, Sahak Mashalian, once again issued a pro-Turkish statement, this time on the eve of the anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, trying to please his Turkish masters and undermine President Joe Bidens April 24 acknowledgment.

We all understand that the Armenian community and the Patriarch in Turkey are hostages in the hands of the Turkish government. As such, they are under pressure to make pro-Turkish statements. However, there are red lines that no Armenian should cross, regardless of the circumstances or reasons. Our ancestors sacrificed their lives during the genocide, not succumbing to Turkish pressures and physical threats. The Patriarch, who is supposed to be a man of God, is obligated to tell the truth even if his life is in danger.

As I have suggested before, if the Patriarch does not want to get in trouble with the Turkish authorities, he should simply keep his mouth shut. He should not volunteer to issue statements on non-religious issues and not desecrate the memories of 1.5 million perished Armenians. We should not jump to the conclusion that every time the Patriarch issues a pro-Turkish statement he is necessarily doing it under duress. Furthermore, the Patriarch should ask himself if the Armenian community has received any benefits in return for his multiple pro-Turkish statements.

Certainly, the Turkish government has repeatedly exploited the Patriarchs words to disseminate pro-Turkish propaganda worldwide. For example, on April 23, 2021, when it became known that President Biden would issue his much anticipated acknowledgment of the Armenian Genocide, the Anadolu Agency (AA), the official Turkish governments news service, reported Patriarch Mashalians condemnation of President Bidens upcoming statement. The AA headlined its news with the Patriarchs words: Using 1915 incidents for politics saddens Armenians.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on a recent visit to the Armenian Patriarchate of Istanbul

How could President Bidens acknowledgment of the genocide, welcomed by Armenians worldwide, sadden Armenians? On the contrary it saddened the denialist Turks and thrilled Armenians. Patriarch Mashalian should just stick to religious subjects and not pronounce judgements on other matters. Regardless of whether he is pressured by the Turkish government to make political statements or does it voluntarily, the Patriarch should refrain from taking such positions, saying that as a clergyman he only deals with religious subjects.

Here are excerpts from the pro-Turkish statement made by Patriarch Mashalian on April 23, 2021, to the Anadolu Agency which was publicized widely in the Turkish media:

It saddens us to see that the suffering of our people and the suffering of our ancestors are instrumentalized by some countries for everyday political purposes. The tension caused by the usage of the issue in parliamentary agendas for decades has not served the rapprochement of the two nations. On the contrary, it provokes hostile feelings and delays peace. We, just like our predecessors and late Patriarchs, will continue to wish for peace, friendship and well-being between Turks and Armenians. We will encourage the rebuilding of relations based on neighborhood and common grounds speedily. We prefer to be one of those who hopefully expect the revival of neighborly relations, which are unique to these lands and exist in the traditions of the two communities, between Turkey and Armenias authorities. Dear Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during his time as both Prime Minister and President, has been the only top state official in the history of the Turkish Republic to give messages on this occasion. These messages show a spirit, sharing our pain and a certain respect for the children of our nation that lost their lives in exile. In our opinion, it would be appropriate to take these as positive steps towards rapprochement in the future. If only the joint history commission they [Turkey] proposed could have been established, then at least 15 years of progress would have been made. If only the [Armenia-Turkey] protocols could have been implemented, borders could have been opened. Then the resolution of the Karabakh [issue] could have resulted differently. We still do not think it is late. The project to build a six-country basin, proposed by our Dear President for Caucasia, can bring the peace of the century to the communities in the region.

Leaving no doubt as to the pro-Turkish position of the Patriarch, Turkeys Communications Director Fahrettin Altun endorsed his statement: Sahak Mashalian, the Armenian Patriarch of Turkey, aptly noted that past sufferings must not be exploited for short-term political gains. [The Patriarch said]: We will continue to live together, peacefully and as brothers and sisters, in this land.

Turkeys presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin also expressed support for Mashalians remarks: Abusing history for a narrow political agenda helps neither the past nor the present.

Interestingly, President Erdogan sent a letter to the Armenian Patriarch on April 24, denying the Armenian Genocide and agreeing with the Patriarchs words.It is not surprising that the Turkish government supported Archbishop Mashalians candidacy for the Patriarchal elections over other less subservient candidates.

The Patriarch must realize that by making propaganda statements on behalf of Turkey, he is losing the respect of Armenians both inside and outside Turkey. His anti-Armenian words are viewed as those of a sold out Turkish agent. The Armenian Church and Armenians in Turkey should pressure the Patriarch to resign since he has lost the support of the Armenian community and can no longer function as their religious leader.

The only countries around the world that criticized President Bidens April 24 statement were: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This places the Armenian Patriarch in the shameful company of the enemies of the Armenian nation!

Read the original here:
How Can the Armenian Patriarch Be as Pro-Turkish as Erdogan? - Asbarez Armenian News

Andrew North is a journalist based in Tbilisi and a regular commentator on Asian affairs. He has reported widely from South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's military buildup on Ukraine's border has incited a complex power struggle with Turkey over the Black Sea that will ripple across Central Asia.

And just as he did last year in the Caucasus, Turkey's mercurial President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is matching words with hard power -- sending Ukraine additional missile-firing drones.

Russia says the 80,000-strong force it deployed to the edge of Ukraine's Donbas region was just an exercise, but Putin also appears to have been trying to gain leverage with Washington. It seems to have worked, with U.S. President Joe Biden offering a summit meeting with the man he recently called a "killer."

But it was Turkey's Erdogan who took the most concrete action in response to Russia's saber-rattling -- perhaps better described these days as tank-rumbling -- by inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to Istanbul earlier this month to reaffirm their strategic partnership.

For Erdogan, the issue is ensuring that Russia does not expand its Black Sea influence following its seizure of the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Crimea has a dominant position jutting out into the middle of the giant inland sea and Moscow has bolstered its surface and submarine fleet there, as well as installing S-400 surface-to-air missiles capable of hitting aircraft flying along most of Turkey's Black Sea coastline.

Erdogan is also pressing ahead with a $12.5 billion plan for a new waterway linking the Black Sea with the Mediterranean as an alternative to the Bosporus. The so-called Istanbul Canal would relieve pressure on the increasingly clogged Bosporus, increase Turkey's freight revenues, and give it greater naval flexibility.

While international coverage of the conflict has faded, Moscow has never stopped backing separatists in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region as a means of unsettling Kyiv and blocking its push to join Western institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.

The irony, of course, is that there's no love lost between Erdogan and his NATO allies, not least over the fact that he too has bought Russia's S-400 missile system. That didn't help Turkey's case in trying to stop Biden from going ahead with this weekend's decision to formally declare the 1915 mass killing of Armenians under the Ottoman Turks a "genocide." But on Ukraine, Turkey and the West are on the same side.

It is the same playbook Erdogan used successfully last year in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, matching vocal support for Azerbaijan with balance-shifting weaponry on the battlefield, such as its Bayraktar TB2 combat drones. There, too, Russia was on the other side, backing Armenia, though showing far less interest than it does in Ukraine.

Turkey has committed to supplying Ukraine with more of the drones that proved so decisive for Azerbaijan. Russian-backed separatists do not have the same capability, giving Ukrainian forces a major potential advantage. Ankara has also signed a deal to sell Ukraine four stealth warships, helping to boost its Black Sea naval capacity.

The Kremlin, predictably annoyed, followed a tried-and-tested template by rolling out Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to blame Ukraine for the rise in tensions, while condemning Turkey for facilitating what he called Kyiv's "militaristic" tendencies. Moscow has also suspended most flights to Turkey, ruining the holiday plans of at least 500,000 Russians.

The Black Sea tussle adds to a growing list of places where the two veteran strongmen have been squaring off. Ankara has been trying to deepen its influence in the resource-rich and Turkic-language speaking states of Central Asia, butting up against Russian interests in a region that, like Ukraine, Moscow regards as its backyard. They have also backed opposing sides in the wars in Syria and Libya.

Turkey has been assiduous in using soft power with its companies and diplomats extending their presence and influence, in addition to 20 new embassies across Asia. It is also keeping a hard-power presence in Afghanistan even after U.S.-led NATO troops leave this September, as part of a separate deal it has done with Kabul to keep some forces there.

But while Turkey may have the second-biggest military in NATO after the U.S., going up against Russia over Ukraine is a huge gamble. It comes amid growing economic strain, made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic, and dissent over Erdogan's strategic approach.

An influential group of former Turkish navy officers and diplomats recently denounced the Istanbul canal project, saying it threatened existing arrangements controlling access to the Bosporus by other nations. Flexing its authoritarian muscle, the government reacted by arresting 10 former admirals who signed the statement, accusing them of mounting a quasi-coup.

On that count, Putin would probably agree. While there may be much that divides the two leaders, Erdogan is known to be grateful to his Russian counterpart for his rapid backing during a failed Turkish military coup in 2016. Support from the West was notably lacking by comparison.

But modern geopolitics is more than ever an a la carte menu, with choices that both complement and conflict. And this time around, the West is more than happy to have Turkey's strongman on its side as it wrestles with his bigger rival across the Black Sea.

Continue reading here:
Erdogan and Putin battle it out for control of the Black Sea - Nikkei Asia

[Dimitris Papamitsos/Prime Minister's Office/INTIME NEWS]

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said Thursday that a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes sense and will take place, adding that I am not able to tell you when but it will not be too late.

In a wide-ranging interview on Alpha TV Thursday night, the Greek premier noted that as he has said in the past, such a meeting should not be news, although he appreciates the buzz around it at this stage, given the heightened tension throughout 2020.

Regarding the visit to Ankara last week by Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias and his controversial public confrontation with his counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, Mitsotakis said it was handled impeccably.

He noted however that he could not reveal what he and Dendias discussed before and after the latters visit to Ankara and limited himself to saying that I instructed the foreign minister to respond if he was provoked.

Dendias pointed out Thursday that expressing Greeces firm positions does not negate the effort for improved relations.

Speaking to Euronews, Dendias said Greece seeks common ground with Turkey but this needs to be based on international law and the Law of the Sea.

He also added that his public confrontation last week with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is not something he wanted to happen.

Meanwhile, speaking earlier on the Arab News network, Dendias initially raised some eyebrows in Greece when he said, among other things, that Greece believes in renewable energy sources and that it is not going to start digging up the bottom of the Mediterranean to find gas and oil. This, he said, would be costly as it would take 10 to 20 years to find and exploit these resources. He stressed that Greece does not plan to become a country of oil and gas production in the near future. His statements were interpreted by some quarters as a departure from the main directions of Greek foreign policy in recent years, especially in the field of energy and maritime zones.

In response Greek Foreign Ministry officials intervened, stating that what Dendias said does not concern the existing energy program of the country. Moreover, the same officials added the views of the minister of foreign affairs on green energy and sustainable development are known and have been repeatedly expressed.

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Mitsotakis, Erdogan meeting on the cards - Kathimerini English Edition

The sum refers to the dollars sold by Turkeys state banks to support its lira currency in foreign exchange markets.

Where is the $128 billion? asked posters on billboards around Istanbul intended by Turkeys main opposition to embarrass and annoy President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK).

The gambit seems to have worked. Police took the posters down,using cranes in some instances, according to videos shared online by the opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP), which said it would keep putting them back up.

The question has also trended on social media, while the AK on Tuesday blocked a CHP call to debate the missing funds in parliament.

The sum refers to the dollars sold by state banks to support the Turkish lira in foreign exchange markets. The unorthodox policy began around the 2019 municipal elections and was ramped up in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic laid bare the liras vulnerability and Turkeys reliance on external funding.

Bankers have calculated that the sales totalled $128.3bn in 2019-20.

Erdogansays the sales helped to support the economy, but they sharply depleted Turkeys buffer of foreign reserves, leaving it more exposed to crisis, and opposition politicians want to know more.

[Erdogan] says you cannot even ask me questions, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu told party members on Tuesday, accusing the AK of stifling debate. Those leading the country must give an account to the people.

Kilicdaroglu said a prosecutor had ruled that some posters that bore a silhouette of the presidential palace were an insult toErdogan. Insulting the president is a crime in Turkey.

The lira, which has lost more than 50 percent of its value since the end of 2017, held around 6.85 versus the United States dollar between May and August 2020, which economists attributed to forex sales. It later weakened to a record low of 8.58 by November, after the sales stopped. The lira traded at 8.08 on Wednesday.

The CHP first posed the question about the sales in February, prompting Erdogan to defend the legacy of his son-in-law, former Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, who had overseen the policy.

Albayrak abruptly resigned in November whenErdogannamed Naci Agbal as governor of the central bank, which had backed the dollar sales with swaps.

Agbal was in turn fired last month, partly, Reuters news agency reported, because Erdogan was uncomfortable with the banks investigation into the sales, which cut its net foreign exchange reserves by 75 percent last year.

The net buffer was $10.7bn on April 2, the lowest in at least 18 years, central bank data shows. Excluding $41.1bn in outstanding swaps, the reserves are deeply negative.

AK lawmaker Mustafa Savas said the sales helped Turkey avoid raising interest rates or seeking International Monetary Fund support.

The CHP has asked how the sales were conducted and at what rate. AK lawmaker Nurettin Canikli said they were all conducted at market rates.

Canan Kaftancioglu, the CHPs Istanbul organisation head, said just a fraction of the $128bn could have supported Turks through a 28-day coronavirus lockdown that the party has urged in the face of a surge in infections.

They will never prevent us from asking these questions, she said, adding that the posters would hang outside CHP buildings until an answer was provided.

The rest is here:
Where is the $128B? Turkeys opposition presses Erdogan - Al Jazeera English