Mediaboss Marketing

In 15 years of Recep Tayyip Erdogan governments, Turkish markets have mostly relished the last month leading up to elections. This time, its different.

Ever since 2002, when the Turkish presidents Ak Party first came to power, at least one asset class -- be it the lira or stocks -- has rallied in the run-up to impending votes. In the month leading up to snap elections on June 24, the lira has depreciated 3.6 percent against the dollar, despite the central banks emergency efforts to help stem the currencys decline.

The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index has dropped about 7 percent even as valuations tumbled to nine-year lows, and the yield on 10-year bonds has surged more than 160 basis points.

Turkish markets show their worst pre-election performances of Ak Party era

Irrespective of what the political outcome is this weekend, the economic outlook in Turkey cannot be favorable in any scenario, Julian Rimmer, a London-based trader at Investec Bank Plc, said by email. Turkey is faced with a Hobsons Choice of either the continuation of destructively unsustainable Erdonomics or a new government and/or president obliged to take some bitter corrective medicine with much lower growth.

Emerging market inflows and accommodative monetary policies globally, which gave Turkey a free pass throughout the last cycle, are no longer operative, Rimmer said.

Part of the reason Turkish assets typically gained ahead of elections in the past can be attributed to pre-ballot polls showing the Ak poised for landslide victories, with the party and Erdogan depicted as bastions of stability for the economy and markets.

On this occasion, investors would like to see progress on economic reforms before making strategic investment decisions, said Piotr Matys, an emerging market strategist at Rabobank in London. The role of the central bank after the vote will be absolutely crucial.

A little over a month before the elections, Erdogan said he intended to tighten his grip on monetary policy, comments that sent the lira into a downward spiral, tumbling to a record-low against the dollar. He doubled down this week by urging his supporters to give him another five-year term in Sundays election so he can lower interest rates.

The ballot takes place amid heightening investor fears of an economic slowdown. While Turkeys economy grew 7.4 percent last year and in the first quarter of this year, the expansion came at the expense of one of the widest current-account deficits among G-20 nations and a double-digit inflation rate.

In May, S&P Global Ratings cut Turkeys credit rating deeper into junk saying there is a risk of a hard landing for Turkeys overheating, credit-fueled economy. In June, Moodys said the nations rating could be cut due to the uncertainty regarding the direction of countrys macroeconomic policy and said recent erosion in investor confidence will continue if not addressed through policy actions following the vote.

Assuming Erdogan is re-elected, hell be governing for at least another five years; so, perhaps during the first half of his presidency, hell have less incentive to keep stimulating the economy as hes been doing for the last two years, Matys said. If thats the case, the economy may rebalance and inflation may fall, which would be an encouraging signal for investors. But there are still massive question marks.

With assistance by Inci Ozbek, and Paul Wallace

(Updates asset prices throughout.)

See more here:
In Erdogan's Turkey, Markets Haven't Been So Bad Before ...

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkeys Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has spent the last few weeks talking himself out of a job.

Presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday will trigger the switch to a powerful executive presidency and the abolition of the post of prime minister, unseating Yildirim two years after his promotion by President Tayyip Erdogan.

The presidents staunch ally, 62, shrugged off the prospect of stepping down as he flew across Turkey on a schedule of daily election rallies, adopting a philosophical stance.

These titles are meaningful for a certain period of time. After that, you are an ordinary person and life goes on. You will only live whatever is in your destiny, he told Reuters on board a flight to a rally in southeast Turkey.

His destiny has been entwined with Erdogan since the 1990s when Yildirim, educated in shipbuilding and marine sciences, was in charge of a high-speed ferry company in Istanbul at a time when Erdogan was mayor of Turkeys largest city.

Yildirim, from Erzincan in eastern Turkey, was a founding member of Erdogans ruling AK Party and took the mantle of prime minister in May 2016, replacing Ahmet Davutoglu who stepped down following weeks of public tension with Erdogan.

Since then, much of his work has focused on paving the way for the constitutional transition to a presidential system, narrowly approved in a referendum last year - a task which Yildirim described as his most important accomplishment.

Now that I have kept my promise, I am at peace, he said.

If elected as widely expected, Erdogan will return to the presidency with new sweeping executive powers, able to form a cabinet, dissolve parliament and declare a state of emergency.

The elections had been scheduled for November 2019 but Erdogan brought them forward to June 24, saying the switch was needed to tackle economic and security challenges rapidly. It was a decision that Yildirim loyally supported.

Elected as a deputy for Istanbul in 2002 when the AKP won its first election, Yildirim then served as transport minister for more than a decade, presiding over major infrastructure projects widely viewed as key to the AKPs electoral successes.

As prime minister Yildirim has often adopted a folksy style in his speeches, at times glum, at times injecting humor as he reaches out to voters. Surrounded by loyal AK Party supporters on the latest campaign trail, he has been filmed baking traditional Turkish pide bread and serving customers at an ice-cream stall.

Yildirim looks set to remain in politics. He is running in Sundays parliamentary election as an AKP candidate in the western coastal province of Izmir, where he campaigned unsuccessfully to be mayor in 2014.

Whatever the outcome of the elections, Yildirims close relationship with Erdogan looks set to continue.

We will continue to work together no matter what our titles are, Yildirim said.

Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Daren Butler and Peter Graff

Link:
Erdogan loyalist Yildirim: happy to become Turkey's last ...

Zekine Trkeri, Marga Zambrana and Austin Davis, Special to USA TODAY Published 12:28 p.m. ET June 16, 2018 | Updated 2:40 p.m. ET June 16, 2018

Turkish citizens living abroad vote as they arrive the Ataturk airport in Istanbul, Turkey, June12, 2018. Turkish President Erdogan announced that Turkey will hold snap elections on 24 June 2018. (Photo: ERDEM SAHIN, EPA-EFE)

ISTANBUL Turkish voters head to the polls June 24 to decide whether to give PresidentRecep Tayyip Erdogan even more control, in what is being called his biggest power grab yet.

Though manysaid they would vote against Erdogan amid his repression of civil rights, an ailing economy and hostile foreign policy moves,few believe their president will lose his job.

"You cannot stop a tsunami, and you cannot stop Erdogan either after he has gathered so much power he is devastating the country like a tsunami," said mer Yilmaz, an unemployed 25-year-old from Istanbul. "He wont leave power even if he loses. He will do anything and everything to win."

Erdogan called the elections 18 months ahead of schedule, after saying the country needed a stronger executive. Under a referendum that passed narrowly last year, his office gains sweeping new powers after this election, including the abolition of the post of prime minister and allowing the president to issue decrees and appoint judges. Before the referendum, the Turkish presidency was aceremonial office.

But Erdogan arguably has already taken control of Turkey. The former prime minister and Istanbul mayor now runs the country under a state of emergency declared in July 2016 after a failed coup. Since then, the president has jaileddissenters and journalists and silencedpolitical opponents.

Many citizens have grown tired of Erdogan's strongman tactics. Erdogan likely won't muster the 51%of votes needed to skip a runoff election for the presidency, said Ilter Turan, a professor of political science at Istanbul Bilgi University. His rivals might then have a chance to line up behind an alternative.

A unified opposition coalition also has a good chance of winning back parliament, creating a potential check on Erdogans power, Turan said.

"The opposition is very energized, unlike earlier when they thought it was a foregone conclusion that Erdogan would win and were demoralized," he said.

One of the most electrifying factors has been inflation and unemployment in the Turkish economy, developmentshurting his nationalist base.

"I studied business administration. I speak (foreign) languages but I cannot find a decent job., Yilmaz said.

In what used to be one of the Middle East's more secular nations, many other Turks want to pivot away from theconservative Islamic ideals the president has used to rally support. Erdogan has promoted the construction of mosques and madrassahs or Islamic schools loosened rules that barred women from wearing headscarves in public sector jobs and restricted alcohol advertisements.

Nilgun Yilmaz, a 56-year-old female accountant, will vote in the June 24th elections for the social democratic CHP Party leader Muharrem Ince. She says she doesn't like Erdogan's government and with her vote hope to keeps the secular Republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatrk in 1923.(Photo: SEVGI KO, ARA NETWORK INC. FOR USA TODAY)

"Freedom of expression is at rock bottom," said Nilgun Yilmaz, 56, an accountant in Istanbul. "If you criticize, you are fired, you are put into prison. There is only freedom to praise Erdogan."

"I want to recover the secular system," she added. "There is also too much tension going on among the people, and that is unsustainable."

Erdogan has also criticized Western leaders, clashed with U.S.-allied Kurds and sought to improve relationships with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian leaders who areinvested in Turkey's war-torn neighbor, Syria. Relations with the United Statesare strained over Syria and over the U.S.-based Turkish cleric, Fethullah Glen, whom Erodgan blames for the attempted coup.

"Turkey is now considered an authoritarian state as opposed to a democracy," Turan said. "I think if the government changes, there would be a restoration of democratic politics."

Democratic changes could help repair relations with the European Union and the U.S., Turan added. Turkey historically has been opposed to Russian and Iranian meddling in the regionand is also a key NATO ally.

Saliha Coskun, a 46-year-old housewife who wears a headscarf as a conservative woman, walks through Istiklal Avenue with her husband and baby. She plans to vote for President Erdogan's AKP Party in the June 24th elections.(Photo: SEVGI KO/ARA NETWORK INC FOR USA TODAY)

But Erdogan's supporters imagine no such scenarioin which the president will be ousted from office.

"Our president has done so many good things for the country that I cannot even think to vote for someone else," said Saliha Coskun, 46, a housewife."If he leavesI don't even want to think we will lose all we have won. God willing, he will win again."

Given the way that Erdogan dominates state-controlled media and other political institutions, many of the presidents opponents seem to think similarly.

"It is hard to digest for me, but I think under these conditions, Tayyip Erdoan will win again," said Saim Levent, 26, a waiter. "He has created a machine that does not allow any other option. Everything is in his hands, under his control."

Davis reported from Berlin

Read or Share this story: https://usat.ly/2t3uBSy

Here is the original post:
Turkey elections: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's biggest ...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a mega-rally for his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Istanbul on Sunday, one week before the country's general election.

Erdogan was hoping to stay ahead of the curve after coming up against more opposition than he bargained for during the campaign.

"Are you in for a strong Turkey on June 24? Will you make history on June 24?" Erdogan asked the crowd of tens of thousands, who answered "yes" in unison and chanted his name.

Although Turkey was not due to hold a vote until November 2019, the government called for early elections in April. Many observers have suggested that this was part of Erdogan's tactic to create a stronger executive presidency in Turkey, and give the opposition less time to mount a substantial challenge.

However, rival Muharrem Ince of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has managed to give Erdogan a run for his money with his dynamism and charisma. Although Erdogan is still the favorite to win next week's election, he faces what will likely be his toughest challenge at the ballot box yet and it may well lead to a run-off vote.

Erdogan refuses TV debate

Earlier on Sunday, Turkey's Hurriyet daily reported that Erdogan had refused an offer from Ince to participate in a live TV debate. Erdogan cited Ince's criticism ofsome planned "mega projects" of Erdogan's as grounds for denying the request.

Erdogan has said he would like to see a third bridge across the Bosporus and a canal in Istanbul to ease traffic, but Ince has said the projects were full of hidden expenses and would come at a cost totaxpayers.

Both Erdogan and Ince have been holding multiple rallies daily in the run-up to the election in a last-ditch attempt to sway voters.

Each evening at 1830 UTC, DW's editors send out a selection of the day's hard news and quality feature journalism. You can sign up to receive it directly here.

See more here:
Turkey's Erdogan holds mega-rally as rival whips up ...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hinting that the country could lift its state of emergency after elections this month, AFP reported.

The state of emergency has been in place since a failed coup two years ago and has already been extended seven times, the last time being in April.

After the elections, we will discuss the state of emergency in detail and there could be the question of lifting it, Erdogan said during a televised interview broadcast late Thursday.

The Turkish leader, who is facing stiff opposition for presidential and legislative polls on June 24, has previously insisted that the emergency measures would not be lifted until the terrorist threat is completely eliminated from the country.

Turkish courts have so far handed jail terms to more than 2,000 suspects over the failed 2016 coup aimed at unseating Erdogan, a government minister said this month.

Thousands of people including soldiers, police officers and judges have been arrested in a broad crackdown since the attempted putsch.

Ankara argues the state of emergency is needed to eradicate the influence in Turkish institutions of U.S.-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, who it blames for the failed coup. Gulen denies involvement in the attempted coup and condemned it. He has hinted that the uprising could have been staged by the government.

Gulen, who leads a popular movement called Hizmet from exile, split from Erdogan over a corruption scandal in 2013. Erdogan has long accused him of running a parallel state from abroad.

The opposition has accused Erdogan of using the state of emergency to silence critics.

(Arutz Shevas North American desk is keeping you updated until the start of Shabbat in New York. The time posted automatically on all Arutz Sheva articles, however, is Israeli time.)

Read more here:
Erdogan: State of emergency could be lifted after election ...