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Turkeys election this month could go down to the wire, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan facing a tougher battle to cement power or even an upset, according to a poll commissioned by Bloomberg.

Erdogan can win the presidential vote in the first round on June 24 with 50.8 percent support and get the backing of a majority in parliament, the survey by Foresight Danismanlik of 500 people on June 7-11 found. But a surprise victory for the opposition is also within the margin of error.

The key takeaway is that any array of options is possible and the only certainty is that it will be very close. Erdogan and his AK party cant win alone, and in previous elections they got the support of religious conservatives, free-market liberals or Kurds to govern. Now success hinges on how voters identifying as nationalist cast their ballot, the poll found.

President Erdogan can clear victory in the first round, opposition surprise possible

Source: Foresight for Bloomberg News

The most powerful factor tilting the result in Erdogans favor is the unwavering devotion to him and his AK party. Very few core supporters can imagine themselves voting for anyone else even as the deterioration of the economy looms large. But nationalists have been deserting their traditional party.

Erdogan always needed and will need coalitions," said Mert Yildiz, a former senior emerging-markets economist for Roubini Global Economics in London who co-founded Foresight in March 2017. Even if Erdogan wins both the parliament and the presidency, political uncertainty is unlikely to end."

The survey is Foresights first for Bloomberg, and the first of its kind in Turkey. The pollster selected a district based on various demographic and socio-economic characteristics and one that voted in line with the past three election results.

The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points, wider than that of a typical poll because of the smaller sample size. (For more on the methodology, see the end of the story.)

Erdogans closest opponent for the presidency is Muharrem Ince of the CHP. He polled at 30.1 percent. Ince was followed by pro-Kurdish HDP candidate Selahattin Demirtas, who despite running his campaign from prison, polled at 10.5 percent. Former Interior Minister Meral Aksener of the new Iyi Party polled 8 percent, trailing most expectations.

Should the presidential race go to a second round run-off, Erdogans lead would be more substantial, the polling showed. The parliamentary vote, though, is more complicated.

Crucially, Demirtass party also polled above the 10 percent threshold that will allow its deputies to enter parliament and possibly deprive Erdogan of a supportive legislature.

HDP was on course to take 11.7 percent of the vote, compared with just 4.5 percent for the nationalist MHP. Deputies from MHP will enter parliament regardless because of their alliance with Erdogans AKP, which polled 46 percent. Inces CHP was on 27.5 percent for the parliamentary vote and Iyi at 9 percent. Both Erdogan and Ince are significantly more popular than their respective political parties.

Erdogan's AK Party, and ally nationalist MHP can get the majority of available 600 seats

Source: Foresight for Bloomberg News

Even though Erdogan is likely to win power, the true winner of these elections will be Muharrem Ince," said Foresight, which advises Turkish municipalities and conducts polls on their behalf.

The economy is the most pressing concern for voters, with 34.2 percent of respondents saying its the nations most important problem. That was followed by 17.7 percent who said terrorism and 13.5 percent who named unemployment.

The vote comes after the lira plunged in value and soaring inflation, making economic performance a liability for Erdogan for the first time in his 15 years leading the country.

Read More: Turkeys Bonds, Lira Slide for a Third Day

The president has unnerved investors with unconventional theories on economic fundamentals and attacks against the central bank. That was exacerbated when, in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London on May 14, Erdogan said hed look to take greater control of monetary policy after the vote.

But while a plurality of respondents -- 35.9 percent -- said their living standards had gotten worse in the past year, very few of his supporters are likely to turn on him. Only 4.6 percent of AKP voters said theyd vote for Ince.

Despite the excitement around the opposition parties and candidates campaigns, none of the candidates can truly steal votes from Erdogan loyalist AKP voters," Foresight said.

Its new, something that hasnt been tested before in Turkey. What we did was instead of taking the whole country, we found this tiny little village that has predicted the past three elections closely. You see all colors of Turkey in that little neighborhood. You sample randomly there, and then you can weight the results for the general population. Theres a caveat that this is a small neighborhood that might have changed in the past three years, but I dont think it did.

With assistance by Fercan Yalinkilic

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Erdogan Fights to Keep Power as Bloomberg Poll Shows Tight ...

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Investors hammered Turkeys lira on Tuesday, sending it to a record low after President Tayyip Erdogan said he plans to take greater control of the economy after next months election, deepening concerns about his influence on monetary policy.

Erdogans comments, in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London, reinforced long-standing worries about the central banks ability to fight double-digit inflation amid the presidents drive for lower interest rates.

He said the central bank, while independent, would not be able to ignore signals from the new executive presidency that comes into effect after the June polls. A self-described enemy of interest rates, Erdogan wants borrowing costs lowered to fuel credit and new construction.

I will take the responsibility as the indisputable head of the executive in respect of the steps to be taken and decisions on these issues, he said in the interview broadcast on Tuesday.

Turkey has called snap presidential and parliamentary elections for June 24 and polls show Erdogan as the strongest candidate to win the presidential vote. Turks narrowly backed a switch to an executive presidency in a referendum last year. That change is due to go into effect after the vote.

Erdogan's comments helped pushed the ailing lira TRYTOM=D3 to a fresh record low of 4.4604 against the dollar, bringing its decline this year to more than 14 percent.

It clawed back some of its losses after one of his advisers, Cemil Ertem, said the central bank had the independence to use all the tools at its disposal.

Yields on 10-year government bonds TR10YT=RR briefly touched their highest since at least January 2010.

To view a graphic on Lira and emerging market currency performance, YTD, click: reut.rs/2wGQ5cm

Centralization of power and interference in the monetary policy is a concern to us, said Dietmar Hornung, an associate managing director and head of European Sovereigns at ratings agency Moodys, at a conference in London.

However, Erdogans economic adviser Ertem said the reduction of rates was a general target, rather than a specific aim of the banks next rate-setting meeting on June 7 - comments likely designed to take some pain off the lira.

President Erdogans emphasis is not directed towards June 7. What the president says is that interest rates should be reduced as a target, he told Reuters.

Erdogan said citizens would ultimately hold the president responsible for any problems generated by monetary policy.

They will hold the president accountable. Since they will ask the president about it, we have to give off the image of a president who is effective in monetary policies, he said.

This may make some uncomfortable. But we have to do it. Because its those who rule the state who are accountable to the citizens, he said.

He also said Halkbank (HALKB.IS) executive Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was found guilty by a U.S. court of helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions, was innocent and Turkey wanted his acquittal.

If Hakan Atilla is going to be declared a criminal, that would be almost equivalent to declaring the Turkish Republic a criminal, he said.

To view a graphic on Turkey inflation and central bank funding, click: reut.rs/2rhsMkh

Additional reporting by Marc Jones in London; Writing by Daren Butler and David Dolan; Editing by Janet Lawrence

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Turkey's Erdogan plans to take greater control of economy ...

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - President Tayyip Erdogan said the United States should look at its own actions if it wants the return of an American Christian pastor who has been jailed in Turkey for suspected links to a 2016 failed coup.

Erdogan made the comment in a live interview with broadcaster NTV.

Andrew Brunson, who has lived in Turkey for more than two decades, was indicted on charges of helping the group that Ankara holds responsible for the failed coup against Erdogan. He faces up to 35 years in prison. Brunson denies the charges.

Erdogan has previously linked Brunsons fate to that of the cleric Fethullah Gulen, the Muslim cleric Turkey blames for the coup attempt. Gulen has lived in the United States since 1999 and denies the charges. Turkey is seeking his extradition from the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump and dozens of U.S. senators have urged Erdogan to release Brunson.

Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Writing by David Dolan; Editing by Gareth Jones

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Turkey's Erdogan says U.S. should look at its own actions ...

The country also enjoyed over 7 percent growth in the last quarter of 2017. Yet there are signs that the economy is faltering. Inflation remains persistently high, which hurts many of Mr. Erdogans own supporters.

The snap election was also seen as a move to undercut political opponents.

Mr. Erdogans announcement came after discussions with Devlet Bahceli, the leader of Turkeys main nationalist party, the Nationalist Movement Party, which has entered a formal alliance with Mr. Erdogans Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., for the elections.

Mr. Bahceli said that he supported early elections for the stability of the country and the economy. But he also seems to be concerned with fending off a rival for the nationalist vote, Meral Aksener, who split from his party and formed her own party, the Good Party, last year, according to Turkish media reports.

The early timing of the election now could prevent Ms. Aksener from running, since her new party may not be considered to have passed the required six months from its first party congress.

Ms. Aksener, a former interior minister, has nevertheless declared her intention to challenge Mr. Erdogan for president and field candidates for Parliament.

Turkeys largest opposition party, the Republican Peoples Party, or C.H.P., was caught flat-footed by the announcement, and has not yet selected a candidate for president. Its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, ruled out running for the presidency last year.

Engin Altay, the deputy head of C.H.P.s parliamentary group, told a Turkish television station that a candidate would be chosen within 15 days.

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Erdogan Calls Early Turkish Elections in Bid to Solidify ...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called elections a year earlier than scheduled, moving to consolidate his one-man rule of the regions largest economy.

The vote will complete the transformation of the political system, eliminating the prime ministers job and weakening the role of parliament. Turkish markets rallied after Erdogans announcement in Ankara that the country will go to the polls June 24 to pick a president, almost certainly ratifying his hold on power.

In calling an early election, Erdogan must feel confident he and his AK Party have the necessary numbers to achieve victory," said Paul Greer, a London-based portfolio manager at Fidelity International. "That itself should reduce market uncertainty."

Erdogans ruling party has never called early elections in the nearly 16 years its been in power, and repeatedly rejected speculation that itd call them this year. Many analysts had predicted an early vote nonetheless, saying a deteriorating economic outlook and fighting in neighboring Syria would prompt him to move up the date rather than risk re-election in a downturn.

Erdogan, who defeated an attempted coup in 2016, has stoked nationalist fervor since launching an incursion into Syria in January, playing the same card as other strongmen, such as Russias Vladimir Putin.

It has become a necessity for Turkey to overcome uncertainties as soon as possible amid developments of historical importance in our region as well as the cross-border operation were carrying out in Syria, Erdogan said in announcing the vote.

Turkish forces captured swaths of northwestern Syria from U.S.-backed Kurdish militants, including the Kurdish stronghold of Afrin. Turkey refused to return the territory it has captured to the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad until after independent elections there to make sure that territorial integrity of Syria remains intact.

Devlet Bahceli, leader of the nationalist party allied with Erdogan, proposed on Tuesday that the vote be moved forward to Aug. 26 of this year from November 2019.

The lira extended gains after the announcement, appreciating 1.6 percent to 4.03 per dollar as of 6:30 p.m. in Istanbul; it has weakened this year against all 17 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The benchmark stock index added 3.1 percent, its biggest one-day gain in a year.

The market rally reflects investor hopes that once a vote has passed, policy makers will dial back efforts to promote growth at the expense of a possible credit bubble, widening budget deficit and accelerating inflation.

Such hopes of a normalization may be misplaced, said Jan Dehn, head of research in London at Ashmore Group Plc, which focuses on emerging markets. He compared the situation to optimistic forecasts for the late Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Argentinas Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

"Markets hope that if Erdogan wins he can do some adjustment and get a bit more normal," said Dehn. "A bit like how markets used to view Chavez and even Kirchner. In reality of course, they did not get more moderate. They got more radical instead."

Turkey has become the worlds leading jailer of journalists, and Erdogans government in March widened the powers of its radio and television censor to include the Internet.

Since the failed putsch in 2016, the government rounded up of opponents by the tens of thousands, including workers in every branch of government and leading members of the media, academia and the judiciary. Even Miss Turkey was dethroned and jailed for criticizing Erdogan on Instagram.

The Committee to Protect Journalists in December identified 73 jailed Turkish journalists, the most in the world for the second year running.

It has also banned or blocked access at times to Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, as well as the virtual private network services, or VPNs, that allow users to mask their locations and skirt the bans. Wikipedia -- in all languages -- has been blocked for almost a year.

With assistance by Selcan Hacaoglu, Ben Bartenstein, and Constantine Courcoulas

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Erdogan Calls Snap Election for June; Lira, Stocks Rally ...