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Hey Gaman brings strong form credentials into Newbury's Listed Denford Stakes

Dan Abraham

Newbury maidens are always worth watching and Saturday's is no exception.

The president of Turkey, the MEP for South East England and the cast of The Only Way is Essex are probably odds against to be tuning into the Betfred Proud To Work With Simpson Group EBF Maiden Stakes (4.05) but the contest features Erdogan, Farage and Towie, with all three making their debuts.

And just for good measure they will be competing against an Otis Redding classic in Dock Of The Bay, and a legendary US comedy series inSeinfeld.

John Gosden saddlesErdogan, a fascinating unraced Frankel colt out of Dar Re Mi, in the 1m4f racefor three-year-olds, which has drawn a field of 12.

The Al Shaqab Racing-owned runner, who made 750,000gns as a yearling, is a half-brother to talented stablemate So Mi Dar, so has plenty to live up to on his belated debut under Jimmy Fortune.

However, Harry Herbert, racing manager to Erdogans owner, offered a word of caution ahead of this long-awaited debut.

John says he'll come on for the race, Herbert reported. Erdogan has had various little setbacks and it'll be good to get him going at Newbury.

Hes a big, strapping, good-looking horse and we hope hes one for the end of the year and next season too.

Erdogan and the Hughie Morrison-trained Towie, out of a mare called Epping, mustconcede 5lb to the filly Farage, trained in County Kilkenny by Pat Shanahan and whose dam is Advertising Space.

Among those to have run, Godolphins Gold Star was an encouraging third at Newmarket on his debut last month.

Drying ground is James Tates one fear ahead of Newburys Denford Stakes (1.50), a race thathas been landed by subsequent Classic winners Rodrigo De Triano, Lammtarra and Haafhd in its more familiar guise as the Washington Singer.

The trainer pitches New Approach colt Hey Gaman, who sets a decent standard on form, into the Listed event hoping some of the forecast showers materialise.

He needs the ground to be easier than good to put his best foot forward, Tate explained. We were always pretty confident he was a good horse based on his homework, but he's left us scratching our heads a couple of times.

Its become clear, though, he just cant perform on fast ground. I know he won on officially good to firm at Yarmouth, but it poured down that day.

He won nicely at Newmarket last time on good to soft and it'll take a good one to beat him if he gets his ground.

Charlie Hills expects his Fillies Mile entry Ripley to take a step forward from her eyecatching debut at Goodwood this month.

The daughter of Declaration Of War got to within a neck of hot favourite Roulette, promising much for the future, and Hills believes she is a nice filly in the making.

He added: She ran encouragingly at Goodwood in the most horrible conditions and I couldnt be more pleased with how she's come out of it."

Serena Brotherton has won the Betfred Ladies Derby Handicap (5.15) six times in the last ten years, including four of the last five.

But it's someone else's turnasBrothertondoes not have a ride, and Carol Bartley, who partners the likely favourite MamSelle for trainer William Haggas and owners Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, is one of nine femaleamateurs hoping to take full advantage.

Weve got a chance now Serena isnt there! she quipped. Ive got a good ride in MamSelle. They say shes an improving type who goes to Newbury in good form.

I won the race for William ten years ago on Tifernati and have a good record for the stable. Lets hope it continues on Saturday.

Betfred Proud To Work With Simpson Group Maiden Stakes, cared form and betting

Denford Stakes, card, form and betting

Betfred Ladies Derby Handicap, card, form and betting

Read exclusive previews from 6pm daily on racingpost.com

Original post:
Farage takes on Erdogan it's the only way at Newbury - Racing Post

By Nicholas Danforth By Nicholas Danforth August 16 at 4:02 PM

Nicholas Danforth is a senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Centers National Security Project.

The ongoing crackdown on dissidents, journalists and alleged coup plotters in Turkey seems to confirm what many observers have long concluded: Turkish democracy is dead, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more in control than ever.

But it would be a mistake to assume that Turkeys fate will now be a stifling but stable form of civilian authoritarianism. The fragmentation of institutions such as the military, coupled with the erosion of Erdogans democratic legitimacy and the ongoing assault on Turkeys veneer of parliamentary democracy, have left the country unprepared for the shocks it is likely to face in the year ahead. If the situation in the country spirals out of control, the result could easily be violence and chaos rather than a resurgence of democracy.

Until recently, the Turkish state, for all of its problems, enjoyed a strong institutional foundation. And Erdogan, for all his problems, enjoyed a strong electoral mandate. But in April, a referendum marked by widespread allegations of fraud approved a package of proposals that dramatically increases Erdogans powers. This has coincided with the imprisonment of many in the countrys opposition, including leading Kurdish parliamentarians. Erdogan has even threatened to jail Turkeys main opposition leader and used the threat of arrest to fend off challengers within his own base. This raises the question of what will happen when the pretense of democracy becomes harder to sustain. If political grievances and popular frustration can no longer be aired or addressed in parliament, they could quickly spill out onto the streets.

Meanwhile, sweeping post-coup-attempt purges have left the military increasingly distrustful and paranoid, exacerbating fissures that already existed within its ranks. Erdogan has also been working to create a variety of new organizations that are well-armed and personally loyal to him, elevating the possibility of civil conflict. Among other steps, the government has provided better weapons to special forces within the police and intelligence service in case they come into conflict with the military, as some did on the night of the failed coup. Erdogan has also worked to arm and organize private citizens, ranging from party members to newly formed civil-defense groups and existing youth movements such as the Ottoman Hearths. In a future crisis, or even in the face of widespread protests like those of 2013, this proliferation of armed actors increases the odds of a growing conflict with no cohesive national force that could quickly stem it.

As a result of this institutional collapse, Turkeys government, state and society are ill-prepared to respond to the many threats the country is facing.

First, there is the economy. Despite numerous warnings and a dramatic drop in the value of the Turkish lira, the Turkish economy has so far avoided a long-predicted crisis. But this does not mean that the warnings are baseless. Economic growth has long fueled the popularity of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). In its absence, Erdogan would need new scapegoats and new ways to prop up his supporters. As part of its post-coup purges, the government has already distributed more than$11 billion in seized assets to pro-Erdogan business people. If the economy falters and the government intensifies these efforts, it could create a vicious cycle of cascading investor confidence.

Turkey also faces a multifaceted terrorist threat that is likely to grow. The Islamic State has carried out a series of bombings in Turkey and has shown a consistent desire to strike targets that will exacerbate Turkeys existing social divisions. As the Islamic State loses territory in Syria and Iraq, many fear it could fall back on its well-entrenched network within Turkey to spread instability and remain politically relevant. More recently, the possibility that Turkey could find itself at war with Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, only intensifies the risk.

Finally, there is also reason to fear that Turkeys long-running conflict with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) could worsen. A particularly violent Kurdish faction recently threatened to launch a new wave of suicide attacks in western Turkey, while Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to attack PKK-linked Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Even if both sides avoid escalation, the government appears unready to seek out a political settlement in part because this would generate a wave of anger among nationalists, the army and Erdogans base. As a result, the government is now forced to walk a narrow path between finding a politically unpopular compromise and continuing a destabilizing war.

The political, military and economic threats facing Turkey are not all of the governments making. But the governments response has consistently succeeded in making them worse. Paradoxically, as Erdogan continues to destabilize the country, he will increasingly come to appear as the only person capable of holding it together. Erdogans followers already believe that he alone can hold back the array of hostile forces tearing their country apart. The worst-case scenario is that Erdogan will push the country to the point where even he is no longer capable of maintaining stability.

The rest is here:
Turkish democracy might be dead and things could soon get a lot worse - Washington Post

Meral Aksener (C) stands before security barriers as police seal off a hotel, preventing Nationalist Action Party dissidents from holding a party congress, Ankara, Turkey, May 15, 2016.(photo byREUTERS/Tumay Berkin)

Author:Cengiz andar Posted August 16, 2017

Turkeys ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) marked its 16th anniversarythis week, and its historyhas been an amazing story. A party that was crafted by the disheartened of banned political Islamist parties and who called themselves the movement of the virtuous spent 15 of those 16 years as the partyin power the longestperiod for any party in recent Turkish history.

Pompous celebrations and ceremonies were held to underscore the might of its leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Some 6,000 people were invited to the mainceremony.

One of the expected guests was the co-leader of the movement of the virtuous, former President Abdullah Gul. Yet he did not attend. Infact, his absence is oneindicator ofhow the birthday party turned out to be bland.

Even before the soulless celebrations, there was talk in AKP quarters about the fatigueofthe ruling party. Erdogans return to the chairmanshipwasn't enoughto rejuvenate the party. Erdogan himself admits the party apparatus has lost its vigor.

Those who are tired should [give up] their positions to new ones, Erdogan said at an AKPmeeting in July in Ankara. Some party members took his remarksas a signal of drastic change in the works, further increasing the unease within their ranks.

As a result, Erdogan tried to soothe the atmosphere withone of his speeches on the eve of theanniversary. Upcoming changes in the party should not be considered a purge, but a renewal, Erdogan said at anAug. 14 public rally in Ankara.

Speaking at the anniversary ceremony, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said he hopes the metal fatigue being felt among the partys ranks istemporary.For some time now, the phrase has been used to define the AKP's performance.

Paradoxically, Erdogans strong grip over the party could be sapping its energy. Neither he nor Yildirim rejects that idea.

Gunter Seifert, an expert on Turkey for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), attributes the weariness tothe party's devolution into a cheerleading squad for the president. The AKPhas "reduced itself to a propaganda machine and lost its power in shaping politics," he told Germany'sDeutsche Welle media company.

According to a relatively influential and sometimes mildly critical Islamist columnist,Ahmet Tasgetiren of the pro-government daily Star, the reason for the lethargy afflicting "the party of the virtuous" is its flaggingvirtue.

A new movement of the virtuous is needed, Tasgetiren wrote in an Aug. 15 column.

It's almost impossible to expect the AKP to make thatkind of shiftagainst Erdogan. The only person with an AKP backgroundwho could initiate such a change is Gul, but given his overcautious style and unwillingness to confront Erdogan directly and openly, it would be afar-fetched hope that he could revive the party.

Those hopefuls who want to see Erdogan removed from powerone day seem to be converging around Meral Aksener. More and more she is emerging as a wild card in Turkish politics.

Aksener was interior minister brieflyduring the late 1990s and served a long stint asa deputy speaker of parliamentduring the AKP's reign. During the 1990s she was a parliament member representinga center-right party. Morerecently, she was a representative of the Nationalist ActionParty (MHP), anultranationalist party also known as the Gray Wolves. However, she rejected the new line of MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, who has transformed theparty into an Erdogan appendage. Among a group of party elders, she rose to prominence in 2016 as a Bahceli challenger,but the judicialsystem under Erdogan's control blocked her way. She then left the MHPactually, she was expelled from the party with a decision contested legally to launch a new party, attracting a considerable MHP constituency.

Her efforts to initiate thenew political party designed toattract all those despairing of Erdogan mainly on the right side of the political spectrum gained momentum rapidly. She is expected to officially introduce the partyin October or possibly evennext month.

There are rumors thatin addition to those who left the MHP, a number of AKP figures even parliament members mightjoin Akseners party. Akseners teamhas been saying the publicwill be surprised.

One potentially major obstacle, among many others on her way, is how Erdogan couldreact to her moves. Also, how will Aksenerenlist Kurdish supportgiven that her team includesnationalists and anti-Kurdish figures?If she can find the formula to gaining the Kurds' support, she could be the figure most likely to unseat Erdogan.

There are many questions.Elections arescheduled for 2019, but whathappens if Erdogan decidesto hold early elections in 2018 before she canbuild a sufficient party structure?

Those who wantErdogan's era to endcould pin their hopes on Aksener's charm and stamina, aided bythe AKPs metal fatigue, which seems to have no remedies and therefore maybe fatal.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/08/turkey-erdogan-himself-may-be-reason-for-exhaustion-in-akp.html

Originally posted here:
This woman might be the wild card who stops Erdogan - Al-Monitor

PARIS (Reuters) - President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday expressed his concerns over a French journalism student detained in Turkey in a telephone call with Turkish leader Tayyip Erdogan, the Elysee Palace said.

Loup Bureau was seized by Turkish border guards on the frontier with Iraq in early August after he was found to have photographs and interviews with Kurdish militia fighters among his possessions.

France has been trying to gain consular protection.

Macron told Erdogan he wanted "that our compatriot be able to return to France as soon as possible," according to the statement. The two leaders will discuss the matter again next week.

Turkey considers the Kurdish YPG militia to be an extension of the PKK, which has fought a three-decade insurgency in southeast Turkey and is designated a terrorist organization by Ankara, the United States and European Union.

Macron and Erdogan also discussed the Syrian conflict. The French president reiterated his hopes to pursue a narrow-focused dialogue centered on the fight against terrorism and an inclusive political solution for peace and a unified Syria.

Reporting by Richard Lough; Editing by Janet Lawrence

Read the original post:
Macron tells Erdogan he wants detained journalist back in France - Reuters

ANKARA (AFP) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday urged sweeping change in the upper echelons of the ruling party ahead of 2019 elections, after it showed signs of weakness at the ballot box.

Turkeys ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was celebrating the 16th anniversary of its founding in 2001, for the first time since Erdogan returned to the job of party boss this year.

Change is natural for the AKP, which was established to respond to Turkeys need for change. But now what we need is a sweeping change, Erdogan said in a speech outside Ankara marking the anniversary.

He said that successful colleagues including MPs, mayors and regional party officials would be able to stay in their jobs but those who were showing tiredness and weariness would have to move on.

He said the new process was beginning in the regions and would be finished by the end of February. Erdogan denied it was a liquidation campaign but said: We need to be ready for 2019.

Erdogan co-founded the AKP as an Islamic-rooted party that would also strive to modernise the economy and push ahead with Turkeys European Union (EU) membership bid.

It has never been defeated at the ballot box since first winning power in 2002 but there have been signs its grip on power has grown slightly less tight in the last years.

In June 2015 parliamentary elections, the party lost its overall majority for the first time, although clawed it back in snap November polls that year.

And most alarmingly, Erdogan won the April 16 referendum on expanding his powers by a much narrower margin than expected, with 51.4 per cent of the vote.

The November 2019 elections will see presidential and parliamentary polls held on the same day.

Afterwards, most of the changes agreed in the constitutional referendum will be implemented, including the liquidation of the office of prime minister.

One change implemented immediately was allowing the president to lead a political party. Erdogan had to leave the AKP when he moved from the office of premier to president in 2014 but swiftly took the job back after the referendum.

Supporters say the changes will streamline government in Turkey but critics fear that they will lead the way to one-man rule.

Turkey remains under a state of emergency imposed after the July 15, 2016 failed coup which led to the biggest crackdown in the countrys history.

In a show of solidarity, key party old guard members like ex-premier Ahmet Davutoglu and former parliament speaker Bulent Arinc were present at the ceremony.

However, Erdogans predecessor as president and AKP co-founder Abdullah Gul was again conspicuous by his absence.

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Erdogan urges 'sweeping change' in Turkey ruling party ahead of polls - Borneo Bulletin Online