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Turkeys newly reelected president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has on a visit to northern Cyprus demanded the recognition of the breakaway state as a condition for negotiations on the future of the island. In this case, he is barking up the wrong tree.

Since 1964, when UN peacekeeping forces (UNFICYP) were deployed on the island to prevent fighting between the two population groups the Greek and Turkish Cypriots this has developed into one of the worlds longest standing conflicts.

In 1974 the conflict escalated when Turkish troops occupied the northern third of the island in accordance with the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, which allowed Turkey to intervene to prevent the union of Cyprus with any other state.

In July, the Cypriot president Archbishop Makarios was overthrown in a coup by a former EOKA gunman, Nicos Sampson, who, backed by the military junta in Athens, intended to declare enosis (union) with Greece. However, Turkeys occupation led to partition and finally, in 1983, the unilateral declaration of the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), which is only recognized by Turkey.

From 1975, reunification talks began under the aegis of the UN with the declared aim of establishing a bizonal, bicommunal federation. A notable attempt in 2004, based on the Annan Plan for reunification, was accepted by 65% of Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by 76% of the Greek Cypriots. A week later, the rump state, designated as the Republic of Cyprus, found a safe harbor in the European Union.

The latest attempt, in what UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres has called a horizon of endless process without result, foundered at Crans-Montana in Switzerland in 2017. Guterres was undoubtedly correct in his belief that a historic opportunity had been missed, as Ersin Tatar was elected Turkish Cypriot leader instead of the pro-federal Mustaf Akinci in October 2020.

Tatar, a hardliner and backed by Ankara, goes in for a two-state solution. Failing this, annexation is a third option, which is not unlikely, given that northern Cyprus is de facto Turkeys 82nd province.

However, the game changer was the discovery of vast gas and oil reserves in the Levant Basin in 2010. Cyprus had already delimited its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and concluded agreements with Egypt, Lebanon and Israel. Turkey, which is not a signatory to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), insists that the extent of its continental shelf and shoreline overrides this principle.

The fact that Cyprus has awarded concessions to foreign companies for hydrocarbon exploration in its EEZ has led to continual conflict with Turkey, not least because it clashes with Turkeys Blue Homeland maritime doctrine.

One response has been the trilateral cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which has lasted a decade and includes a military dimension.

On another level, Egypt, whose Zohr gas field is the largest in the Mediterranean, in 2019 founded the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, which includes Israel, Cyprus, Greece, France, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, but not Turkey. The US and the EU are observers.

ACCORDING TO former US ambassador to Turkey, Eric Edelman, Erdogan believes he can threaten his way in. On the other hand, also in 2019, Congress passed the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act in support of Greece as a valuable NATO member, Israel as a steadfast ally and Cyprus as a key strategic partner.

In addition, in October 2021 the US amended its MDCA (Mutual Defense and Cooperation Agreement) with Greece to include the port of Alexandroupolis as a key strategic hub.

In 2014, when Turkish professor Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of Turkeys neo-Ottoman foreign policy, was appointed prime minister, he included in his manifesto a vision of Turkey as an energy corridor.

In 2009, the European Commission agreed on the construction of a Southern Gas Corridor to diversify its energy supply by bringing gas resources from the Caspian Sea to European markets. Commissioned at the end of 2020, it comprises the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) from the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) through Turkey and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to Italy.

Turkey has tried to lure Israel to commit to a pipeline from Israels Leviathan field to Ceyhan in southern Turkey, but so far Israel has resisted this siren call. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to arrange a meeting with Erdogan, but Erdogan will only meet with him if he delivers news on gas cooperation.

Turkey is also dependent on Russian gas through the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines, and Russia has proposed to Turkey that it acts as an energy hub for Russian gas to Europe after the Nord Stream blasts.

In January 2022 a non-paper from the US State Department put the kibosh on Greece, Cyprus and Israels plans to construct a 1,900 km. EastMed pipeline to transport gas from the Levant Basin via Greece to Europe. One of the reasons given for canceling the project was creating tensions in the region i.e. dont upset Turkey.

Against a background of a thaw in relations between Turkey and Egypt, due consideration must be paid to Egypt as a gas hub and the founder of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). For example, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed in June last year between the EU, Egypt and Israel to export Israeli gas to Europe via two Egyptian LNG plants.

By the same token, there is no logical reason why Cyprus should not serve as the conduit for the transport of Eastern Mediterranean gas via Turkey to Europe. As Egypts ambassador to the United States, Motaz Zahran, has explained the EMGF is the perfect example of a regional approach to address the Israeli-Palestinian issue and regional economic integration.

The same could apply to the Cyprus issue and the standoff in Eastern Med.

In the process, a number of camels will have to be swallowed, but according to Hatem Zadek, a professor at Helwan University, Mediterranean gas can fix what politics has spoiled.

The writer is an international adviser at RIEAS (Research Institute for European and American Studies) in Athens.

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Standoff in Eastern Mediterranean: Erdogan is barking up the wrong tree - The Jerusalem Post

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is to embark on an official visit to Turkiye following an invitation by his Turkish counterpart and recently re-elected President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

News of Sisi's visit was disclosed by Ambassador Salih Mutlu Sen, who currently serves as Ankara's charge d'affaires in Cairo, Daily Sabah reported on Friday.

According to diplomatic sources, cited by broadcaster NTV, Erdogan extended the invitation to Sisi after the latter called him to congratulate him on his election victory. The Egyptian president is said to have welcomed the invitation, and may visit Ankara shortly after Eid Al-Adha, which starts on 28 June.

The latest diplomatic developments between the two countries follows an agreement to upgrade relations late last month by exchanging ambassadors, following years of strained ties, since Egypt's 2013 Saudi and UAE-backed military coup, which overthrew the late President Mohamed Morsi, who was a close political and ideological ally of Erdogan.

Since the democratically-elected Morsi government was overthrown, diplomatic relations between Ankara and Cairo have been mutually maintained at the level of charge d'affaires.

Back-door diplomacy between the two countries gained traction in November of last year, after Sisi and Erdogan met and shook hands at the sidelines of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

OPINION: Normalisation between Egypt and Turkiye: The winners and losers

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Egypt's Sisi to visit Turkiye at Erdogan's invitation - Middle East Monitor

Thus, the thinktanks mostly believe in a continuation of traditional transactional relations with Turkey, which in its turn might refrain from further serious deterioration of relations with Western allies in the hope of getting the desired finances to save the Turkish economy. At the same time, Turkey will continue developing relations with major powers, including the USAs rivals, such as Russia and China, to its own benefit, which will inevitably create problems in US-Turkish relations.

As for the reaction of the US media to Erdogans reelection, a few arguments are to be highlighted.

The first argument is that Erdogans reelection will consolidate autocracy in Turkey. According to the US mass media, Erdogan had utilized all of the states resources, making use of its control over the media and the favorable electoral laws. Erdogans reelection is deemed as victory of the global club of autocracies. Moreover, another five years of Erdogans rule will further hollow out institutions and entrench authoritarian political habits in the countrys psyche.

Other sources point out that with his victory Erdogan extended his increasingly authoritarian rule. Erdogan is expected to introduce a new constitution to include and secure all the changes overseen by his conservative and religious Justice and Development Party. Second, Turkey will continue to deepen its ties with Russia moving away from the orbit of the West.

The US media is also worried about the anti-western stance of Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly claimed that the United States endorsed his political rival during these elections, while his political opponent Kilicdaroglu in his turn blamed Russia for interfering into the elections. Moreover, in his Twitter blog he made a post in Russian urging Russia not to interfere in Turkish elections. Erdogan is continuously moving away from the transatlantic orb, building closer ties with Russia. To relieve Turkish economic problems Erdogan managed to receive financial support from Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Empires and Qatar in the form of central bank loans, which allowed Erdogan to raise salaries ahead of the elections.

The US media specifically highlighted the fact that Erdogans reelection was followed by a wave of congratulations from a number of autocracies, which were among the first to congratulate him. Those countries included Russia, Qatar, Libya, Algeria, Hungary, Iran and the Palestinian Authority. However, Russia was central and specific attention was given to Vladimir Putins congratulatory statement, which said that the elections were clear evidence of the Turkish peoples support for Erdogans efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy. According to the US news agencies, even though Turkey is a NATO ally, the country established closer ties with Russia and deepened authoritarian rule. Hence this policy will have consequences outside Turkey, which in its turn has a strategically important position between the crossroads of Europe and Asia.

Last but not least, US media stressed that with Erdogans reelection Turkey will continue expanding its geopolitical role taking advantage of West-Russia confrontation.

According to various US media, despite all the challenges, Erdogan had one advantage during this presidential elections his deft geopolitical maneuvering in which he has expanded Turkeys influence in the region, especially the broader power conflict between Russia and the West. Moreover, Erdogan is said to have improved Turkeys positions, becoming an important world leader by facilitating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Erdogan managed to sell weapons to Kyiv while expanding economic ties with Moscow. As for the relations with Western allies, Erdogan is using its leverage over them, such as in holding up Swedens accession to NATO.

The US is well-aware that Erdogan manages to establish close ties with adversaries of the United States, particularly with Russia and China, despite being a NATO ally. Turkey serves its interests by interfering in the balance between the two poles. Erdogan manages to condemn Russias invasion of Ukraine, while at the same time refusing to impose sanctions on Russia. Instead, Turkish trade relations with Moscow are expanding. He calls Vladimir Putin my friend and prevents NATO expansion efforts by not allowing Sweden to join NATO.

By and large, judging from the reactions of the state officials, press and thinktanks, clear conclusions can be drawn about the US approach to the elections held in Turkey and the re-election of Erdogan. It is obvious that the United States is not particularly excited about Erdogans victory but will have to continue to cooperate with Erdogan and his political team, having both common interests and deep controversies.

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The Difficult Ally: What Does the US Expect from Re-elected ... - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

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Turkey has summoned the Swiss ambassador in Ankara to protest the burning of an effigy of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Zurich.

This content was published on June 15, 2023 June 15, 2023

swissinfo.ch/mga

The rebuke comes after videos were circulated showing the Erdogan doll effigy being set ablaze in a shopping trolley on Wednesday.

The Swiss ambassador was told that provocations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish flag are unacceptable, according to Turkish state media.

Turkey has demanded a Swiss investigation to track down and punish the perpetrators.

The Swiss foreign ministry told the Keystone-SDA news agency that it had been informed of the summons.

This is not the first time that Ankara has complained to Switzerland over anti-Erdogan protests on Swiss soil.

In 2017, the Turkish authorities were enraged by protestors in Bern who unfurled a banner depicting a gun pointed at the head of Erdogan and the slogan: Kill Erdogan with his own weapons.

However, Bern police refused to take action against the organisers of the demonstration.

Erdogan was narrowly re-elected as president following a closely-fought election last month.

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Turkey summons Swiss ambassador over Erdogan protests - SWI ... - SWI swissinfo.ch in English

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won reelection last month despite a battered economy and a cost-of-living crisis that experts say are exacerbated by his unconventional economic policies.

The longtime leader appointed an internationally respected former banker as finance and treasury minister and on Friday named a former co-CEO of a U.S.-based bank as head of the central bank.

But lingering uncertainty over Erdogans economic direction and an apparent move to loosen government controls of foreign currency exchanges have led Turkeys currency to plunge to record lows against the U.S. dollar this week.

The Turkish lira has now weakened by around 20% against the dollar since the start of the year. It has raised fears of even higher prices for people already struggling to afford basics like housing and food amid high inflation.

I am anxious. I am unhappy. Soon my income wont pay the rent, said Sureyya Usta, a 63-year-old who lives in Ankara.

Heres a look at the falling value of the lira, what lies ahead for the economy and how people have been affected:

ERDOGANS ECONOMIC POLICIES

Turkey has been plagued by a currency crisis and skyrocketing inflation since 2021, which economists say are the result of Erdogans unorthodox belief that raising interest rates will increase inflation.

Conventional economic thinking and the approach being taken by central banks around the world calls for the opposite: rate hikes to control price spikes .

Erdogan has exerted pressure on Turkeys central bank to lower borrowing costs.

The bank has cut its key policy rate from around 19% in 2021 to 8.5% now, even as inflation hit a staggering 85% last year. Inflation eased to 39.5% last month, according to official figures, but an independent group says the true number is more than double that.

In other policy considered to be unorthodox, economists say the government aggressively intervened in the markets to prop up the lira ahead of the elections , depleting Turkeys foreign currency reserves to keep the exchange rate under control.

Pressure over the lira had been high for some time, but excessive interventions by the central bank was preventing the currency from skyrocketing in recent weeks or months, said Ozlem Derici Sengul, an economist at the Istanbul Spinn Consultancy.

A RETURN TO RATIONAL GROUND?

Hours after being sworn in, Erdogan announced that Mehmet Simsek, a former Merrill Lynch banker who had previously served as his finance minister and deputy prime minister, would return to the Cabinet after a five-year break from politics.

Simsek said Turkey had no other option but to return to rational ground. In a sign that Erdogans new administration might pursue more conventional economic policies, Simsek also said there were no shortcuts or quick fixes but vowed to oversee Turkeys finances with transparency, consistency, accountability and predictability.

In another sign, Erdogan on Friday appointed Hafize Gaye Erkan to lead the central bank, taking over from the current chief who has championed rate cuts since 2021. Erkan, a former co-CEO of a U.S.-based bank, becomes Turkeys first woman central bank governor.

Economists say, however, that its not clear to what extent Erdogan, who has ruled the country with a tight grip , will give Erkan and Simsek free rein.

The markets are not convinced yet of Erdogans return to traditional policies, Sengul said. There are uncertainties over whether Erdogan will allow unlimited independence to the central bank and other institutions or have another strategy, she said.

WHY IS TURKEYS CURRENCY FALLING?

The Turkish lira tumbled to record lows against the dollar this week, first falling 7% on Wednesday and then 1.6% on Friday.

Economists say the sharp slide earlier in the week resulted from the government loosening its controls over the currency following Simseks appointment. However, the plunge may have been steeper than what it had anticipated.

The lira weakened by a limited 0.5% on Thursday amid reports that state banks were asked to resume selling foreign currency to prop up the currency. On Friday, the lira depreciated to another all-time low of 23.54 to the dollar.

Loose interventions, combined with some uncertainty, created an excessive depreciation in the lira in one day, Sengul said about the Wednesday drop. The banks are currently intervening in the exchange market, thats why we will not have another 7% depreciation.

HOW ARE PEOPLE AFFECTED?

High inflation is pinching households and businesses with costlier groceries, utility bills and more. A weaker currency means Turkey, which is dependent on imported raw materials, will have to pay more for everything from energy to grain that are priced in dollars.

Usta, the 63-year-old from Ankara, works at a firm that sells cash registry machines to boost her retirement pension but still struggles to pay her living expenses amid high inflation.

She is worried that this weeks sharp decline in the lira will lead to further price increases and even more financial uncertainty for her.

I keep cutting back and cutting back so that I can afford to live, so I can pay for gas and electricity. But how much more can I cut back? Usta said. Ive forgotten about going to the theater and the cinema or going out to meet friends.

Usta says her rent doubled earlier this year, but the owner wants to increase it again. Moving out isnt an option because rents have skyrocketed even in her low-income neighborhood, she says.

Sengul, the economist, says the one-day currency shock is unlikely to have a huge impact. If, however, the depreciation is not contained, she warns, market pricing behavior will dramatically deteriorate.

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Why Turkey's currency is crashing after Erdogan got reelected - The Associated Press