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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's comeback from the Covid-19 hiatus has been bold. For months, he kept himself far from cameras and instead let his minister of health handle public proceedings.

There were some occasional squabbles with the opposition, especially with municipalities on how to combat the virus, but mostly everything was uneventful. Then he started to take several steps together.

First, his ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) ratified a watchmen bill in June that effectively created a new law-enforcement body to guard the streets at night.

Once it was done, the AKP went on to break up the bar associations that are mostly chaired by lawyerscritical of the government, allowing multiple bars to be established in one province.

Hagia Sophia: Istanbul revels in 'reconquest' during first Friday prayer

Next, an angry Erdogan threatened to altogether ban social media sites in response to a tweet that insulted his newborn grandson and daughter. Now, the government is debating a new social media regulation that would force sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to open up representative offices in Turkey or face millions of dollars fines and restriction of user access.

Then Erdogan moved in with more controversial steps.

After a court decision, he personally reconverted the Hagia Sophia into a mosque. Then his associates promised to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention against violence against women for allegedly normalising homosexuality and destroying families.

He also declared homosexuals as "perverts"and called on the public to stand against homosexuality, while his associates pressured Netflix to remove a gay character from a TV series shot in Turkey.

There are several explanations for Erdogan's motivations, yet almost all of them are tied to voting trends.

Since his first day in the office in 2003, Erdogan and his associates have been obsessively collecting polls and closely investigating what voters really want. That strategy, along with Erdogans political instincts, have kept him in power for the last 18 years. However, this time the numbers dont look very good.

The Turkish economy was sluggish before the coronavirus crisis, but now it is in deep trouble. In one year, more than 2.5 million people lost their jobs, the Turkish Central Bank seems to have burned all of its net reserves to keep Turkish lira steady, and the budget deficit increased by almost 40 percent year-on-year in the first six months of 2020. Meanwhile, the lira lost roughly 15 percent of its value against the dollar over the first half of this year.

'The AKPs grassroots are shrinking in size and Erdogan is becoming more vulnerable to demands from its own core voters'

- Berk Esen, Bilkent University

The voters' response to this has been brutal. Even though Erdogan appears to be preserving his personal backing, around 50 percent in favour, his party is suffering huge setbacks. Recent polls suggest the AKPs support dropped to 34 percent earlier this year and after the coronavirus crisis further decreased to 30 percent, while the number of undecided voters increased to 10 percent.

"The AKP's grassroots are shrinking in size and Erdogan is becoming more vulnerable to demands from its own core voters,"said Berk Esen, an assistant professor of international relations at Ankara'sBilkent University.

"Religious orders and religious communities are increasingly more effective in shaping the AKPs agenda because the AKP addresses now a smaller voting base."

Reverting the Hagia Sophia into a mosque, in this case, has been a decades-long demand by religious conservatives, and also described by Erdogan himself as his youth dream.

"The move itself is a confirmation that the government is desperate,"Esen added. He said that the AKP's mantra has always been taking steps to maintain its popularity and keep the opposition weak.

The Ismailaga, a faith movement based in Istanbuls Fatih, and the Isikcilar religious community, which owns Turkiye, one of the country'snewspapers, have been campaigning for Turkey's withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention in a country where the brutal murder of women by men is a common occurrence.

Their main argument is that the language used in the convention on gender is "destroying the binary categories of male and female", and empowering women in ways that make maintaining a proper family "impossible". A recent poll indicated that more than 51 percent of the public didn't even know what the Istanbul Convention was.

The same groups are also pressuring the government to take steps to restrict LGBT movements inside the country, from censoring Netflix programmes to cancelling Gay Pride marches.

New parties founded by former Erdogan allies such as Ali Babacan and Ahmet Davutoglu have been a worry for the AKP, because for the first time in recent history there are alternative parties on the centre-right that are focussed on stealing votes from the president.

Another woman killed as Turkey mulls abandoning Istanbul Convention

"There is a risk that the voters who are distancing from the party could move to these new parties,"saidNezih Onur Kuru, a political scientist. "This includes the religious conservatives."

There are more than three years until the next presidential elections, yet rumours are swirling in the capital that Erdogans nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli could call a snap election anytime he wants. Some opposition MPs expect that it will happen next year.

In any case, many also believe Erdogan is using topics such as the Hagia Sophia and Netflix to distract the public from the main issues, such as the economy. It is an attempt to shape the public agenda.

Indeed, the Turkish public and the international community have been debating on the Hagia Sophia for weeks, while new economic data released by the authorities confirmed the distress that Turkish working families are going through.

"By show of force, they are putting the AKPs capabilities in the first rank of the public agenda,"Kuru adds.

Kemal Can, a veteran journalist writing for independent news platform Gazete Duvar, underlined in his recent columns that, with or without electoralreasons, the government has been increasing its powers and say within society, from security to bar associations.

The recent proposal on social media is such an attempt. The draft law not only compels companies such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to immediately remove content on the orders of judges, it also opens theway to delete news stories on the internet based on the "right to be forgotten".

Critics say the powers will very likely be used to delete anti-government reporting from digital history.

Asked about the possible reasons for the governments timing and rush on the subject, Yaman Akdeniz, a professor of law and the leading cyber-activist in the country, respondedwith only a sentence: "Because they can."

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Vulnerable and flagging in the polls, Erdogan rattles his base - Middle East Eye

Jul 31, 2020

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is flexingdiplomatic and military muscle in Libya to bring about a cease-fire and a new round of peace talks.

While Libya is the battlefield, there is a larger regional contest shaping up in the standoff between Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, it seems, is unimpressed by the Egyptian presidents red lines and threat of force.

It will therefore likely be up to Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, rather than Sisi or anyone else, to prevent an escalation.

"Time is not on our side"

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in July described conditions in Libya as "gloomy," adding that "time is not on our side."He expressed concern about foreign interference in the war, the 400,000 Libyans displaced by the conflict, and the spike in COVID-19 cases.A UN report this week detailed the scale of civilian deaths attributed to the conflict over the past month.

The World Bank had designated Libya at risk of endemic poverty as a fragile state experiencing high intensity conflict, and that was before the pandemic.

Red lines get blurry

Egypt backs Khalifa Hifter, a military strongman whose forces have been rapidly losing ground to the Libyan Government of National Accordthanks to Turkeys military intervention on the government side.Among those on the side of theGovernment of National Accord are thousands of jihadifighters shipped in from Syria, as Amberin Zaman reports.

Libya has become one of the Middle Easts regional fault lines, with Egypt, the United Arab Emiratesand Saudi Arabia on one side, and Turkey and Qatar on the other, as Gilles Kepel explained in a recent podcast.

Turkey and Qatar are considered supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, which the others consider a terrorist group.

Russia and France also back Hifter, and Erdogan has been at odds with NATO ally French President Emmanuel Macron over differences over Libya, as Ayla Jean Yackley and Bryant Harris report.

The United Nations recognizes the Government of National Accord, so Erdogan believes he has international legitimacy on his side.

If this all seems very 1914, even worse are the random acts that can escalate things.

Hagar Hosny writes that some in Egypt speculate that a recent terrorist attack by Islamic State-linked terrorists in Egypts Sinai is connected to Sisis decision to intervene in Libya.In other words, the fight in Libya is about containing Islamist and Brotherhood affiliated groups in Egypt and elsewhere in the region.

On July 20, Sisisaid a parliamentary resolution that day approving combat missions outside the countrys border had provided Egypts intervention in Libya international legitimacy if it decides to deploy.

Hifter has support among tribes in northeast Libya, where the oil fields are located.Sisi declared any move by the government to take Sirte, the hometown of former dictator Moammar Gadhafi and gateway to the fields, as a red line for Egypt. Sisi also has called for further arming of Libyan tribes in the region to hold off the Turkish-backed government offensive.

Does Erdogan think Sisi is bluffing?

With Hifter on defense, Sisi has also proposed a cease-fire and a new round of political talks in conjunction with his threat of military force, although the initiative may be dead on arrival, from Turkeys perspective.

Erdogan is loath to grant a seat at the table to Hifter, and may not take Sisis warning about the use of force seriously, Metin Gurcan writes.

Sisi may be eager for an intervention, hoping to boost his popularity in the Arab world and sustain the UAEs financial backing, but Ankara doubts the Egyptian military shares his eagerness, writes Gurcan.According to Turkish assessments, Egypts military would be reluctant to engage in a cross-border campaign with ambiguous military goals and risk losses that might damage its credibility and fuel internal rifts.

The Turkish assessment is that Algeria and Tunisia would see Egyptian intervention as an unwanted escalation, as Simon Speakman Cordall explains, and that the United Statesand Russia, both close allies of Egypt, would advise against it.

Did Putin get Erdogan to cave?

Cengiz Candar writes that while a joint statement July 22 from Turkey and Russia backed diplomacy in Libya, that may not mean much because Erdogan feels he has the upper hand with Egypt and Hifter.

Turkey committed itself, upon Russian demand, to refrain from going to war forSirteand al-Jufra. Also, the reference to intra-Libyan political dialogue might be interpreted as Turkey, albeit implicitly, concedingto accepting Hifter as a party in the peace process, given the Libyan leader was also present at theBerlin Conference, Candar explains.

Nonetheless, Candar concludes, All those who have faith in Erdogan's Libyan policy, which is now contained by Russia, can count on the inconsistency of Turkey's president. There is nothing permanent for Erdogan. Hence, although a war with Egypt that could have erupted due to his miscalculation is averted forthe time being, one can never know what the near future might bring.

SemihIdiz writes that Erdogans personal relationships with both Putin and Trump have strengthened Ankaras hand and averted serious crises, which could even have escalated into direct military confrontations between Turkish and US/Russian forces, most notably in Syria adding,Ankara has also not held back from using its ties with Moscow and Washington against these powers, depending on the occasion.

Can the United States and Russia stave off further crisis?

Libya is a collapsed state in conflict, a battlefield for regional powers since the overthrow of Gadhafi in 2011.And like Syria and Yemen, Libyas fate is not ultimately in Libyas hands.

The Libyan conflict is, regrettably, on a path of "Syrianization,"as Fehim Tastekin called it, the result of the jihadis shipped there by Turkey to fight on behalf of the Libyan government against Hifter.

As in Syria, Putin and Erdogan find themselves at odds but willing to talk it out.

And as in Syria, Putin is working all angles, not only with Erdogan and Sisi, but also with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (known as MBZ) and others, asSamuel Ramani writes.

And that brings us to Trump, who has been actively engaged in his own summit-level diplomacy with Sisi, Erdogan, MBZ, Macronand Putin.All operate by personal connection and the action moves when they talk.Libya is a matter of war and peace, and the United Statescan further seize the roles as invaluable mediator. The risks of escalation remain high, but the tele-diplomacy has the potential to energize the UN Security Council especially if Trump, Putin and Macron get on the same page for an active role in bringing an overdue reprieve to the Libyan people.

More:
Does Erdogan think Sisi is bluffing in Libya? - Al-Monitor

If Bashar al-Assad was the only figure able to take advantage of Recep Tayyip Erdogans reconversion of Saint Sophia into a mosque after a mere 85 years as a museum, something must be very wrong with the worlds reaction to the Turkish presidents latest political shenanigans.

After Erdogan restored the almost 1,500-year old structure designed by its Christian builders to recreate the Temple of Solomon to the status of a fully prayed-in, fully functioning, fully muezzined place of worship for Turkeys Muslim majority, the Americans expressed their disappointment, the EU and Unesco their regret and the Pope his deep sadness.

Inevitably, only the Orthodox church rumbled on about this threat to the whole of Christian civilisation though it has been tolling its misery about the loss of the church ever since the Muslims conquered Byzantium in the 15th century. In the Middle East, history lasts a long time.

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

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Erdogan has deep faith in his strategy of politics cloaked by religion | Robert Fisk - The Independent

AZAZ HAS experienced quite the turnaround. The city in northern Syria was once controlled by Islamic State (IS), which continued to terrorise it even after leaving in 2014. That is when other jihadists and rebels swooped in. Today, though, Turkey is calling the shots. It keeps the lights on and supplies the local shops. The list of Turkish projects under construction ranges from schools and universities to hospitals and roads. The infrastructure is better than before the revolution, says an architect who is building new housing as part of another Turkish project.

Turkey is expanding its footprint across the Arab world, using force more than diplomacy. In the past year it has occupied north-eastern Syria, punched deep into Iraq and intervened in Libyas civil war. Its military spending has increased by nearly half since 2016.

Yet Turkeys strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, does not appear to have an all-encompassing vision for the region. Rather he is pursuing Turkeys economic interests and dealing with perceived threatssometimes by violating the borders of other countries. Thus is he fulfilling a promise made four years ago to go and confront [problems] wherever they nest.

Turkey is no newcomer to the Middle East. Its predecessor, the Ottoman empire, ruled the region for 500 years, until European powers rolled it back. More recently it has exerted cultural and economic influence, especially through Turkish soap operas and construction projects. After the Arab spring of 2011 brought Islamist movements to the fore, Mr Erdogan promoted Turkey as a model of Islamist governanceand himself as leader of the Muslim world. As the Islamists were pushed back (or crushed) and Western powers lost interest in the region, Turkey grew more assertive.

Start in Syria, where Turkey has long backed the rebels trying to topple Bashar al-Assads regime. They have all but lost, but Turkey continues to protect the areas still under their control in the north-west. It does not want another flood of refugees to cross its border, so it has tried to stabilise the regionfurther digging in. It trains police, funds a civil service and has replaced the Syrian pound with the steadier Turkish lira. In cities such as Azaz it is building rapidly. Backers of Mr Erdogan suggest that this is an investment for the long run.

Turkey has been even bolder in the part of northern Syria once controlled by the main local Kurdish force, the Peoples Protection Units (YPG). The YPG grabbed a large swathe of territory while helping America defeat IS. But the YPG has close ties with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a separatist Kurdish group in Turkey. So when America pulled out in October, Turkish troops moved in, backed by local Arab rebels. Together they pushed the Kurds out of much of their statelet. Turkey now occupies a 30km-deep strip in Syria extending for 145km along their border.

Mr Erdogan is also battling the PKK in the Kurds autonomous region in northern Iraq. Turkey says it has neutralised over 1,400 Kurdish fighters in Iraq and Syria this year. Sometimes the Turks have attacked 200km inside Iraq. They insist it is a short-term operation aimed only at the PKK, but they have set up a number of new outposts in the country. Many suspect their aim is to carve out a buffer zone along the border, as they did in Syria. Iraqs Kurds fear a Turkish presence would endanger their aspirations for statehood and, if it extends far enough, cut them off from the Kurds in Syria.

Turkeys intervention in Libya is different. The countries of the eastern Mediterranean have long argued over who controls which part of the seaand the gasfields beneath it. Mr Erdogan feared that an alliance of Egypt, Israel, Greece and Cyprus might squeeze Turkey out of the area. So last year he signed a deal with Libyas UN-backed government that demarcated their maritime boundaries and supposedly gave Turkey the right to drill in waters off Greek islands. (Greece is having none of it.) In return Turkey has provided troops, arms, drones and mercenaries (from Syria) to the Libyan government and its allied militias, tipping the war in their favour. Earlier this year the forces of Khalifa Haftar, a rebellious Libyan general, were pushed out of western Libya.

Turkey is now a force to be reckoned with along a 600-km stretch of the Mediterranean. It controls an airbase in al-Watiya, close to Libyas border with Tunisia. Its frigates protect Libyas coast in the west. Some say Mr Erdogan is trying to turn the eastern Mediterranean into a Turkish sea.

He is active elsewhere, too. He has installed a Turkish garrison in Qatar, an ally and fellow backer of Islamist movements that has been threatened by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). He has also shown an interest in Yemens civil war, offering Turkey as a safe haven for the Islamists fighting on behalf of the exiled president, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. (He may do the same for Mr Hadi if Saudi Arabia grows tired of hosting him.) Across the Red Sea, in Sudan, Turkey is hoping to develop Suakin, a ruined Ottoman port. And it has established its largest overseas base in Mogadishu, the Somali capital.

Does Turkey have staying power? Its armed forces may already be stretched thin, having lost thousands of officers to show trials and purges in the past decade. And its adventurism isnt cheap. Its operations in Syria alone cost up to $3bn a year, says Nihat Ali Ozcan of TEPAV, a think-tank. But Mr Erdogan focuses on the benefits. Qatar, for example, has gone on an investment spree in Turkey. Earlier this year it helped shore up the weakening lira by tripling its currency-swap agreement with Turkey to $15bn. It may also be helping to pay for the operation in Libya, where Turkey expects to win new contracts when peacetime reconstruction resumes.

There is a domestic political benefit for Mr Erdogan, too. His attacks on the Kurds and posturing in the Mediterranean have delighted the nationalists who are his allies in parliament. They, in turn, have influence over the police and army.

But the going could get tougher. Egypt has mobilised its forces on Libyas border and vows to cross it if Turkey advances further. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, staunch anti-Islamists, would probably back Egypt. Russia is also on the opposing side in Libyaand in Syria, where it is believed to have killed dozens of Turkish troops in February. Mr Erdogan may soon feel he has bitten off more than he can chew.

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Ottoman redux"

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Turkey is wielding influence all over the Arab world - The Economist

Tukey has sent mixed signals regarding the Libyan crisis by pledging a decision military action and calling for a peaceful solution in the war-torn country.

We are determined to make sure that our struggle in the vast region from Iraq to Syria and Libya ends in victory for our country and our friends and brothers and sisters in these countries, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on the occasion of Eid al-Adha.

Turkey will also continue to defend its rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean, he said.

In the same context, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar affirmed in statements Thursday that Turkey is doing its utmost to help its Libyan brothers, in order to bring about a ceasefire, stability, and territorial integrity in Libya.

Akar added that the continued external military support received by Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar represents the greatest obstacle to peace in the country.

Rami Abdulrahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, stated that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham arrested Fadl Al-Libi, the leader of Jaysh Al-Sahel operating under the banner of Hurras Al-Din organization.

The militant was arrested for refusing to leave Syria and engage in fighting in Libya, at Turkish authorities' orders.

Russias Sputnik also revealed Thursday that a new group of mercenaries was dispatched to al-Watiya airbase in western Libya.

Further, weapons and mercenaries were sent to Misrata ahead of a possible new operation in Sirte and Jufra.

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Erdogan Insists on Decisive Action in Libya - Asharq Al-awsat - English