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Ten years ago, the government of Turkey was claiming to be the force of stability and order in its volatile region. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a name for this policy: Zero problems with neighbours.

This week, as Mr. Erdogan plunged his country into a brutal new war between two of his neighbours while fighting active battles in at least two others and antagonizing half a dozen more, it is fair to say he has become the major problem for most of his neighbours. It is harder to say that he has any sensible goal or strategy or plan.

Even in 2010, there was reason to doubt he did. To become a broker of stability, Mr. Erdogan needed to reach a peaceful settlement with his own Kurdish minority, reconcile long-standing conflicts around Armenia and Cyprus, support the right forces in Syria, Egypt and Libya, keep a pathway open to Europe, maintain good relations with Israel and Iran, and avoid antagonizing both Russia and his countrys fellow NATO members.

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He has spent the decade doing precisely the opposite on every one of those files.

In the 2010s, he worked to transform himself into a president for life in the Vladimir Putin mould, and appears to be parroting the Russian Presidents method of becoming a regional strongman by stirring up chaos and instability in neighbouring countries. Hes doing this by using the Syrian uprising as an opportunity to wage war on Kurdish territory there, sending fighters to back Tripolis faction in the struggle for Libyan power and sending floods of refugees into Europe through Greece. Its what you might call a strategy of all problems with neighbours.

He calls it neo-Ottoman, promoting himself as a pan-Islamic influencer across a region roughly coincident with the Istanbul-centred empire whose collapse a century ago created modern Turkey. More plausibly, he is trying to rescue his countrys flailing economy by turning Turkey into a pipeline empire, expanding lines across his country to carry gas and oil to Europe from Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Russia, and potentially Qatar and Israel, and making unlikely attempts to lay claim to parts of the eastern Mediterranean gas fields.

Still, it was possible to imagine Mr. Erdogan had some larger vision of Turkish influence and power at least, until recent weeks. Whatever his long-term strategy may actually be, there is no way his latest military engagement could contribute to it.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous region of Azerbaijan where the 150,000 people who live there are mostly ethnic Armenian and Christian, and have generally governed themselves as a distinct society for the past 25 years. Shortly after the breakup of the Soviet Union created the modern country of Azerbaijan its people are mostly Muslim and Turkish-speaking the region endured an ugly guerrilla war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over its status, killing 30,000 people.

This should be one of the worlds more easily resolved conflicts. Nagorno-Karabakh has little strategic or economic value; Armenia isnt interested in claiming it as territory; negotiations toward some formal semi-autonomous status have been dragging on for years.

But over the summer, Azerbaijans dictator Ilham Aliyev declared hed had it with talks, and that all the occupied lands must be freed without exception a chilling suggestion of ethnic warfare. The past week has seen attacks on civilians; some credible reports, though not all, suggest those attacks are deliberate and co-ordinated, in the vein of Russias wars in Chechnya.

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Although it is not surprising that Turkey is more aligned toward its long-time partner Azerbaijan, it would make far more strategic sense for Mr. Erdogan to attempt to play the peacemaker, as Russia did when a similar conflict flared up in 2016, only to be resolved fairly quickly with more talks.

Instead, Mr. Erdogan has plunged into the conflict with a fervour that has surprised even Turkish observers inured to his actions in the region. Turkish jets, tanks and munitions are pounding the area. Mr. Erdogan has egged on the Azerbaijani forces, declaring that the country had to take matters into its own hands, and even urging Armenians to overthrow their government (which came into power after a peaceful democracy uprising in 2018). Reporters from the BBC, Reuters and independent human-rights agencies have interviewed Syrian jihadi fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh who say theyre being paid by Turkey (whose officials deny this).

Turkeys role is unquestionably central in turning an avoidable conflagration into a far larger war that has a real danger of provoking conflicts across several countries. But Mr. Erdogan clearly expects this unnecessary war to benefit him. How it will help him, his country or his neighbours is a question that has mystified even seasoned observers of the Turkish Presidents methods and this time, they are unlikely to find an answer. This time, the chaos and bloodshed really have no larger purpose, real or imagined.

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Turkeys Erdogan has stirred up another cruel and senseless war - The Globe and Mail

Nordic Monitor

Ali hsan Arslan, a close confidant of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan and a deputy from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), hired a former senior adviser to the Trump campaign, lobbyist Barry Bennett, US Department of Justice Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) records have revealed.

According to documents filed with FARA on Wednesday, Bennett says he will assist Arslan in his role as a member of parliament to develop better relations with key policy makers and thinkers in Washington. Bennett also says he will work with Arslan free of charge because he is Arslans friend.

Yet, despite the absence of a formal, paid contract between the two, Bennett seems to have disclosed his relationship with Arslan to meet the requirements of the US statute known as FARA. The Foreign Agent Registration Act requires certain individuals working as agents of foreign principalswho are engaged in political activities or other activities specified under the statuteto make periodic public disclosure of their relationship with the foreign principal, as well as activities, receipts and disbursements in support of those activities.

According to Bennetts FARA filing, his activities on behalf of Arslan may include communications with Members of Congress and Congressional staff, Executive Branch officials, the media, and with other individuals and organizations that could reference relations with the Republic of Turkey.

FARA disclosure filed by Barry Bennett:

Arslan, known as Mcahit (spelled Mujahid in English, meaning jihadist) in AKP circles, has been a close confident of Erdoan since his time as the mayor of stanbul. He is a businessman and one of the founding members of the AKP. Until his election to parliament in 2015, Arslan had no official titles but remained part of a core group that traveled almost everywhere with Erdoan.

In a 2004 cable on then-Prime Minister Erdoan, US Ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman mentioned Mcahit Arslans name under the subtitle of corruption and said, Charges that Erdogan amassed his fortune through kickbacks as mayor of Istanbul have never been proven but we now hear more and more from insiders that close advisors such as private secretary Hikmet Bulduk, Mucahit Arslan, and Cuneyd Zapsu are engaging in wholesale influence peddling.

Bennett is a partner at Avenue Strategies, a lobbying firm he cofounded with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski shortly after the 2016 presidential election. According to FARA records, the firms client list has included the governments of Qatar and Zimbabwe. Other noteworthy clients include Venezuelan petroleum giant Citgo and Virginia-based tobacco company Altria.

Before serving as senior advisor to the Trump campaign, Bennett managed the presidential run of Ben Carson, now the US secretary of housing and urban development.

The lobbying registration just weeks before the US election has fueled speculation about a last-minute effort by the Erdoan government to see the Trump administration take action on some of its priorities. These include avoiding potential sanctions, improving cooperation in Syria and pushing for the US to extradite exiled Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen, Erdoans arch enemy.

Turkish President Erdoan has been targeting followers of the Glen inspired movement since the corruption investigations of December 17-25, 2013, which implicated then-Prime Minister Erdoan, his family members and his inner circle.

Dismissing the investigations as a Glenist coup and conspiracy against his government, Erdoan designated the movement as a terrorist organization and began to target its members. Erdoan intensified the crackdown on the movement following a coup attempt on July 15, 2016 that he accused Glen of masterminding. Glen and the movement strongly deny involvement in the abortive putsch or any terrorist activity. Following the allegations, Glen called on the Turkish government to allow for an international investigation.

As part of the crackdown Erdoan dismissed some 150,000 public servants including members of the armed forces, police officers, teachers, doctors and academics by emergency decree-laws, detaining hundreds of thousands and seizing their assets.

Avenue Strategies and the Turkish Heritage Organization

This is not the first time Avenue Strategies relations with important Turkish figures have been revealed. In June 2019 Gnl Tol, director of the Turkey Program at Washington, D.C.,-based think tank the Middle East Institute, claimed in a tweet that THO had offered in an email to pay $350 to people who agreed to attend a conference at which Turkeys justice minister, Abdlhamit Gl, would talk about the Turkish governments judicial reform strategy. The email was sent by John Cpin, a partner in Avenue Strategies.

An email sent to Gnl Tol by John Cpin on behalf of THO as shared by Tol on Twitter:

In response to Tols claims, THO President Ali nar shared the image of an email by Cpin to Tol apologizing for the misunderstanding and claiming that THO was not paying any honorarium.

The exchange revealed that Avenue Strategies was working for THO, with or without an official contract.

THO is a D.C.-based pro-Erdoan non-profit that, according to its website, promotes discussion and dialogue around Turkeys role in the international community and issues of importance in the U.S.-Turkey bilateral relationship. The sponsors of the organization include Turkish Airlines, which is owned by Turkeys sovereign wealth fund, and Turkish construction giants Kalyon and Kolin, two of the top winners of public tenders in Turkey during Erdoans term in office. In fact the firms were awarded so many contracts that they made it into the World Banks top 10 biggest global winners of public tenders,according to a report.

Beyond the Turkish government, THO also has close ties with Erdoans inner circle. Leaked emails published by Wikileaks in late 2017 show that THO was founded, with the involvement of Erdoans son-in-law and Minister of Treasury and Finance Berat Albayrak, who was at the time Turkeys energy minister, as a way to camouflage the Turkish governments lobbying activities in the US. The emails were stolen by a Turkish Marxist group called RedHack.

In the emails THOs former president, Halil Danmaz, details a roadmap to circumvent tax and other impediments in the laws by hiring journalists who could get access to American political and bureaucratic circles, including members of Congress. These journalists would then be paid to write and publish articles in American newspapers and news sites essentially advocating for Erdoans agenda and developing opinion in legislative circles.

The extent of the services provided by Avenue Strategies to THO is unknown. But given the direct ties of THO to Erdoans inner circle, the organization might have contracted Avenue Strategies to influence the Trump administration.

A report by Asbarez suggests that THO might in fact have also penetrated the Biden campaign. According to Ara Khachatourians report, Elvir Klempic, the former executive director of THO, was appointed national affinity and ethnic engagement director by the campaign of Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee for president.

THO, Ekim Alptekin and Russian ties

According to a Politico story, Dmitri David Zaikin, a Soviet-born former executive in Russian energy and mining companies, was also instrumental in the setting up of THO.

The organization got its start when Zaikin asked a Washington-based international political consultant named John Moreira to help set it up, Moreira told Politico. Zaikin has also had dealings with the government of Vladimir Putin, according to three people with direct knowledge of the activities.

Moreira told Politico he was paid to help manage the heritage organization but would not say by whom. He said he gave Zaikin weekly updates on the organizations activities and that Zaikin visited Washington about every other month. On at least one occasion, a man named Ekim Alptekin met with communications consultants working for the Turkish Heritage Organization, Moreira said.

Alptekin is a pro-government Turkish businessman whose payments to former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn for research and lobbying work against the Glen movement were central to a political controversy in the US. Alptekin was charged with hiring Michael Flynn as part of a secret, illegal US lobbying scheme on behalf of the Turkish government during and after the 2016 presidential campaign and is still at large and wanted by the FBI.

But three people with direct knowledge of the situation said it was more than just one meeting; Zaikin and Alptekin worked together to help coordinate pro-Turkish lobbying.

For his part Zaikin told Politico: I introduced [the Turkish Heritage Organization] to a few companies who I believed were industry professionals in good standing. I was present at a few meetings.

Zaikin did not sign checks or contracts lobbying firms were hired through the Turkish Heritage Organization and another nonprofit called the Turkish Institute for Progress, according to lobbying disclosure records. Zaikin also asked Moreira to help set up the Turkish Institute for Progress, Moreira said.

Leaked emails of Berat Albayrak also appear to show Zaikin receiving reports of those lobbying activities.

Zaikin, 49, was born in Ukraine and grew up as a citizen of the Soviet Union. He said in emails that doctors excused him from the Soviet military draft because of an injury and that his family left the Soviet Union in 1990. He subsequently became a Canadian citizen and now lives in London.

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Erdoan confidant signs former Trump advisor to lobby US lawmakers on Turkey's behalf - Nordic Research and Monitoring Network

CAIRO 11 October 2020: The ambassadors of the European Union and a number of European countries told Saturday Libyan Interim Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj that the maritime borders demarcation MoU he had signed with Turkey in December "infringes upon the sovereign rights of third states, does not comply with the law of the Sea, and cannot produce any legal consequences for third states," as indicated in a statement released by the EU Commission.

The head of the EU Delegation to Libya and the ambassadors of Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Finland, Spain, Sweden, and Norway met Sarraj to present their credentials.

The envoys reiterated the necessity of complying with the outcomes of Berlin Conference held in January embodied in pursuing a political solution and abiding by the arms embargo imposed on Libya.

The ambassadors hinted that further sanctions can be used by the EU "against those who undermine and obstruct work on different tracks of the Berlin process including on the implementation of the UN embargo on Libya, as well as those work against ongoing attempts to reform the security authorities, continue to plunder state funds or commit human rights abuses and violations all over the country."

The diplomats also displayed the role of EU Operation Irini in the implementation of the embargo and the prevention of oil smuggling.

On September 21, European Union foreign ministers agreed to sanction two individuals and three companies for violating the arms embargo on Libya, two diplomats told Reuters.

Both individuals are Libyan while the companies are based in Turkey, Jordan, and Kazkhstan and operate in the maritime and aviation sectors.

Those are Kazakhstans Sigma Airlines, Jordans Med Wave Shipping, and Turkey's Avrasya Shipping. According to Reuters, the assets of the Turkish firm have been frozen as its "cargo vessel Cirkin was involved in a naval incident between NATO members France and Turkey in June," and also used to smuggle arms to Libya.

Turkey denies the claims and says the ship was carrying humanitarian aid, as reported by Reuters.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned on August 6 a "criminal network threatening the stability and security of Libya."

In a statement, OFAC explained that the network consists of Faysal al-Wadi, operator of the vessel Maraya, and two associates who are Musbah Mohamed M Wadi and Nourddin Millod M Musbah. The office designated the Malta-based company, Alwefaq Ltd, and identified Maraya as blocked property.

Faysal al-Wadi and his associates have smuggled fuel from Libya and used Libya as a transit zone to smuggle illicit drugs, said Deputy Secretary Justin G. Muzinich. The United States is committed to exposing illicit networks exploiting Libyas resources for their own profit while hurting the Libyan people, the statement reads.

"Wadi has worked with a network of contacts in North Africa and southern Europe to smuggle fuel from, and illicit drugs through, Libya to Malta. Wadis illicit trafficking operation transported drugs between the Libyan port of Zuwarah and Hurds Bank, just outside Maltas territorial waters. Hurds Bank is a well-known geographic transfer location for illicit maritime transactions. Wadi also smuggled drugs and Libyan fuel into Malta itself. Wadi has kept all official documentation clear of his name, while being the primary organizer of smuggling operations using the vessel Maraya," OFAC indicated.

"As a result of todays actions, all property and interests in property of these persons, including the identified vessel, that are in or come within the United States or are in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC or otherwise exempt, OFACs regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or those within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated persons," the statement underlined.

The sanctioned company is most probably named after Al Wefaq Government (Arabic for the Government of National Accord (GNA)), which is a Tripoli-based interim government that is not elected but recognized by the United Nations.

Zuwarah, from which the fuel was smuggled, is a Mediterranean city western Libya lying to the west of the capital, Tripoli, and is controlled by the GNA militias.

On the same day the U.S. sanctions were announced, Libya, Turkey, and Malta issued a joint statement denouncing NATO's Operation IRINI aimed at enforcing arms embargo on Libya in the Mediterranean.

The foreign ministers of the three states met in Tripoli to discuss joint cooperation as Turkey and Malta expressed support to the GNA.

In December 2019, Turkey signed with the GNA two MoUs on defense and gas drilling in the Mediterranean.

Spokesperson of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Ahmed al-Mesmary had stated early in July that Turkey has transported into Libya 25,000 mercenaries. Those include 17,000 Syrian militants, 2,500 Tunisians who fought in the ranks of the Islamic State (IS) in Idlib and Aleppo, and other nationalities including the Sudanese.

Turkey has also sent 2,500 3,000 officers and military experts to co-command the operations rooms of the GNA militias and to pilot drones from mainly Tripoli's Mitiga Airbase. The LNA downed around 70 Turkish drones as they were targeting its concentrations.

The LNA announced downing on July 23 a Turkish reconnaissance plane west of the Libyan city of Sirte, which is currently controlled by LNA forces.

On July 22, the LNA warned Turkey against approaching the Libyan coast, threatening to target any hostile naval vessels in the Libyan waters.

Libyan tribes announced the closure of oil ports and fields in January as the revenues were used by the GNA to pay militants. Early in July, the tribes declared that oil facilities would resume operations. However, the LNA announced on July 11 that such facilities would remain closed until the demands of the Libyan people on dismantling militias are fulfilled. The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NCO) announced that the value of revenues lost until present is $6.5 billion.

On July 5, several "unknown aircraft" launched nine strikes against Oqba Bin Nafea Airbase located in Al Watiyah controlled by the GNA and Turkey. The outcome was the destruction of Hawk air defense systems, and a Koral electronic warfare system as well as the killing of a Turkish commander, and six officers as the operations room they were in was hit.

However, Commander of Mobilization at the LNA Khaled al-Mahgoub stated on July 20 that Turkey still uses Oqba bin Nafea airbase in Al Watiyah western the country to bring in military reinforcements less than a month from losing air defense and electronic warfare systems in strikes by "unknown flights."

The LNA's commander of mobilization unveiled July 25 that Syrian mercenaries transported by Turkey are being turned into police forces by the Ministry of Interior affiliated to the GNA.

The Libyan Armed Forces restored Sirte in January, and was advancing in the outskirts of Misrata and Tripoli. However, early in June, it lost Al Watiyah and Tarhouna, which was its last stronghold western the country, retreating into Sirte and Al Jufrah.

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Sarraj-Erdogan maritime demarcation MoU not binding to other states: EU - Egypttoday

The United Nations General Assembly, which meets every September, offers authoritarian heads of state their favorite platform for trolling the world. For this year's 75th annual session, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated his trademark mockery of multilateralism by lecturing members that "the world is bigger than five," his euphemism for reshuffling the UN Security Council to get Turkey a permanent seat. Erdogan's calls to reform the United Nations might have found a sympathetic audience had it not come from a strongman who institutionalized one-man rule at home by destroying democratic governance and the rule of law during his nearly 18 years in office.

Between his annual pitches to redesign the United Nations to his own advantage, Erdogan found time to hurl anti-Semitic remarks. This year, he referred to Israel as "the dirty hand that reaches the privacy of Jerusalem," prompting a walkout from Israeli envoy Gilad Erdan, who accused the Turkish president of continuing "to spout anti-Semitic and false statements against Israel." Last year, Erdogan compared developments in Gaza to the Holocaust, eliciting a similar response from Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz via Twitter: "There is no other way to interpret Erdogan's crude and vile wordsit is antisemitism, clear cut."

Rather than represent a genuine desire to fix the United Nations, where authoritarian regimes have secured clout over the last decade to shield themselves from international scrutiny, Erdogan offers a classic example of a strongman bent on exploiting intergovernmental organizations.

The Turkish president's disregard for UN conventions, resolutions and sanctions is well documented. For example, a 376-page report the UN Panel of Experts on Libya issued in December 2019 found that Turkey, among others, violated a 2011 embargo by delivering arms and fighters to the war-torn North African country. The panel stated that the transfers to Libya were "repeated and sometimes blatant, with scant regard paid to compliance with the sanctions measures."

Erdogan's record is even more disconcerting in northern Syria. In a report the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria released on September 15, the panel accused Turkey's jihadist proxies of committing war crimes, including hostage-taking, cruel treatment, torture, rape and pillaging. The panel also accused Ankara's proxies of violating international humanitarian law by looting and destroying cultural property. Such violations, the report stated, "may entail criminal responsibility for [Turkish] commanders who knew or should have known about the crimes, or failed to take all necessary and reasonable measures to prevent or repress their commission."

Erdogan's Syria policies prompted criticism from another UN agencythe United Nations Children's Fundin March, after Turkey-backed armed groups interrupted the flow of water from the Alouk water station to regions of northeast Syria, where close to 500,000 reside, including tens of thousands of internally displaced persons sheltered at camps. The agency warned that the "interruption of water supply during the current efforts to curb the spread of the Coronavirus disease puts children and families at unacceptable risk."

The latest UN agency to clash with Erdogan was the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, which expressed its deep regrets for the Turkish president's conversion of Istanbul's sixth-century Byzantine church, Hagia Sophia, into a mosque. The conversion breached Ankara's legal commitments in accordance with the monument's status as a museum on the World Heritage List.

The Turkish president's abuse of the United Nations also extends to the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). In June 2016, 230 NGOs from around the world penned an open letter to ECOSOC criticizing the politicization of the United Nations' Committee on NGOs. Over the years, Turkey has received criticism for playing a large role in that politicization by using procedural tactics to block the granting of consultative status to NGOs, or withdraw that status from NGOs as a form of reprisal.

Both the United States and the European Union have expressed concern over the number of deferred applicants and called for an end to arbitrary questioning of NGOs at the committee. In February 2018, Geneva-based human rights watchdog UN Watch condemned the election of Turkey as the vice chair of the committee that accredits and oversees the work of human rights groups at the world body.

Erdogan's lofty general assembly speech and calls for reform and multilateral cooperation will not find a sympathetic audience beyond fellow authoritarians who share an interest in making a mockery of international norms. The Turkish president's key motivation for "fixing" the United Nations is to open it and other intergovernmental organizations to further abuse. Erdogan and others hope to bully their neighbors and trample upon vulnerable individuals and communities around the world without international scrutiny. It is imperative for democratic nations to join forces for genuine reform at international institutions, to deny impunity to autocrats and prevent them from adding insult to injury from their podiums.

Aykan Erdemir (@aykan_erdemir) is the senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former member of the Turkish parliament. Philip Kowalski (@philip_kowalski) is a research associate at the Turkey Program of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.

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The United Nations: Erdogan's Favorite Platform for Trolling the World | Opinion - Newsweek

Not satisfied with his efforts to extend Turkeys influence into the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean, which has proved harder than similar efforts on land in Libya and Syria, President Erdogan has backed President Ilham Aliyevs efforts in Azerbaijans decades long simmering conflict with Armenia.

Given Armenias dearth of Western political supporters, and its peripheral status within the Wests religio-cultural community, Erdogan only has to face down Russian interests to extend Turkeys influence into the Caucasus.

Media reports allege that as Turkey did in Libya, it has moved allied irregular fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan. It has sold arms to Azerbaijan, reaping profits for the Turkish defense industry. In parallel, it has been fomenting the notion of pan-Turkism, calling for Azeris to recognize and embrace their natural affinity with Turks, a call aided by the closeness of the two languages, both now written in Latin script.

Now with the outbreak of hostilities, Erdoan has expressed full support for the Azerbaijani position, eschewing the role of mediator or honest broker between the warring parties. While the United States calls for the Minsk group to mediate, China offers its good offices, Russia calls for calm and an end to fighting, and Iran offers to broker talks, Turkey stands out as having placed itself fully on the side of one party to the conflict. Erdoan has no interest in a resolution of the conflict that does not enhance his prestige in Azerbaijan and political influence in the Caucasus region.

And he may get his wish. China is too far away to play much of a role, and it has few diplomats trained to be honest brokers instead of discerning and advocating forcefully for Chinas interest. Iran, with a population that is one-quarter ethnic Azeris and relatively few ethnic Armenians, would likely be seen as tilting towards Baku over Yerevan. The Minsk group would need substantial political capital invested by the U.S. to be effective as a mediator, and with the U.S. election in full-swing, there is little expectation the White House will back the Minsk group, or intervene itself, to bring a halt to the fighting. And while the UN will pass resolutions calling for cease fires, action to stop the fighting is unlikely.

Which leaves Russia on the side of Armenia, and Turkey on the side of Azerbaijan. It is unlikely the two greater powers will allow their clients to go so far as to pull their big brothers into the conflict, but the risk is there.

The greater danger is that, Aliyev, backed by Erdoan, wrapping his actions in calls for justice, will not seek a compromise and extend the fighting over time and terrain.Unlike specific identified territorial or other material goals, throwing the mantel of justice on war efforts leaves little room for horse-trading and compromise to settle a dispute in which each party gets less than what they desire, yet accepts that because they know the other party got the same. To satisfy the demands of justice or honor or similar concepts increases the likelihood that the conflict will only be resolved at great cost, for how can one relent when injustice is still occurring? And since each side will insist its cause is just, where is the room for sensible, realistic compromise?

President Erdoan likely views a protracted conflict as contrary to his interests. A short demonstration of support for Aliyevand Azerbaijan via the provision of arms, air support, military intelligence, and the transportation of irregular fighters (but not regular Turkish soldiers) will serve to cement his image as the defender of all Turkic peoples against the anti-Turkish Westerners. Linked to this will be the subtle message, and not so subtle suggestions from his acolytes, that Erdoan defends the Muslim Azeris against the Christian Armenians, a Sultan wielding the sword to defend the faithful.

Hell have to be careful. Putin may not so willingly cooperate with Turkey over the division of influence in Russias near abroad as it has done in Syria and to a lesser degree in Libya.

In the U.S. Congress, Erdoans full-throated support for Azerbaijan will not go down well with many members, particularly those with strong ties to the well-organized and well-to-do Armenian-American communities. Erdoans standing with the Democrat-dominated U.S. House of Representatives could not get much lower, so the voices of the Armenian-American lobby will find receptive ears.

Likewise with the White House, which has shown increasing impatience, or at least a less supportive attitude, towards Erdoan. Yet, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is not likely to push the U.S. forward as a mediator between the two Caucasus rivals, instead advocating a greater role for the Minsk group, in part to buy time until after the Nov. 3 election.

In sum, President Erdoan is likely to realize his goal of increasing his and Turkeys prestige among the Azeris and most other Turkic peoples of the region, as well as further convincing himself that he is the pre-eminent protector and defender of Turkic/Muslim peoples wherever they live. Like imperial leaders of all times, his reliance on client states and subordinate allies is no surprise and spares him the risk of losing votes if Turkish soldiers were to be killed fighting for others and not the motherland. His actions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh are another step in the process of undoing Ataturks secular and Western orientation of Turkey.

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Is Erdoan extending his influence into the Caucasus? - Ahval