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Ozay Mehmet

Ugurs frustration with president Recep T. Erdoan (RTE)is understandable, not his interpretation of the Turkish referendum or especially his call for a formal suspension of the EU accession talks. Ugur is kicking a dead-horse. These talks are effectively suspended anyway, and RTE is a grievously wounded politician. He may not last long.

In the meantime, the better advice for the EU response would be cool patience, and democratic choice. Stay the course and diligently support democratic moves in the country. CHP is challenging his legitimacy, now taking the case to the European Court of Human Rights. Lets see what the Court will decide.

Even more ominously, a revolt is gathering strength within the AKP. The party lost as much as 10 percentage points in the referendum with traditional AKP voters. Erdogans latest gambit is to take direct control of the party. He ordered an extraordinary general assembly for 21 May 2017.

RTE is now an angry politician. He is furious for having lost big cities like Istanbul and Ankara. He is aiming to punish those inside the party for these losses, but the political dyke is bursting. This time he may not prevent a collapse. His imminent cabinet shuffle is likely to lead to further fragmentation within ranks, and there is talk of Abdullah Gul, the former (and highly respected) president and others forming a new party.

In the next presidential elections, set for 2019, or possibly earlier, RTE could well be defeated, if confronted by a credible runner. In any event, there is widespread disapproval of the one-man rule in Turkey. The war against PKK is raging with no end in sight. In the referendum, it cost RTE the Kurdish vote. His Syrian adventure remains unclear and his relations with the USA and Russia are increasingly vague.

Turkish economy has slowed down and inflation is now nearing double-digits. Tourism is almost 20% down. Unemployment is rising. Erdoans key economic advisors are marginalized, and may be axed. The pro-EU Ali Babacan sits on the side-lines.For the EU to now take Ugurs advice and declare unilateral suspension, or worse, termination of accession talks, would be overkill. No need for such irrational behavior. Better to wait and watch Turkish events for the next few weeks and months.

The referendum exposed RTEs vulnerability and may yet be his undoing. Sincere democratic voices in Europe must diligently work reinforcing pro-democracy movements inside Turkey. It is not too late to save Turkish democracy. In the past, the EU helped countries escape fascism or communism. It makes good sense to do it now in the Turkish case. For its own energy security and refugee crisis management this is, surely, the wiser course.

Ozay Mehmet, Ph.D (Toronto), Senior Fellow, Modern Turkish Studies, Distinguished Research Professor, International Affairs (Emeritus) at Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada.

Originally posted here:
Erdogan On Borrowed Time - Social Europe

An earlier Firstpost article theorised that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan's visit to India has provided fresh fillip to India-Turkey relations. Buttressing this point, the author produced two major reasons in his argument: first, the regional contexts in which the two countries India and Turkey are working to support each others role. Second, Turkeys "normalised" ties with Israel has a stabilising role in the region, which is key to the India-Turkey relations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. PTI

While the second factor was clearly at play when Erdoan visited India since Turkey has signed a reconciliation deal with Israel, the first premise does not stand to scrutiny given the Turkey-Pakistan close relationship. Most surprisingly, many analysts, including the above author, have conveniently skipped the ideological angel of Erdoan's visit to India. It is important to unravel as to what political and economic agendas the Turkish President has pursued during his visit to India. But it is equally important to delve deeper into the ideological motives of the current Turkish President in view of his affinity to political Islamism. From an Indian Muslim's point of view, a far more important question is: how will India tackle the theoretical persuasion of Erdoan or Erdoanism for the Muslims?

Erdoan's global political agenda is referred today as Erdoanism. The deeper ideological roots of Erdoanism emanate from the Turkish conservatism (muhafazakrlik). Though he calls himself a "conservative democrat", any form of democracy is not acceptable to him unless it comes under the purview of his Islamist ideologues. Candidly exposing the outcomes of Erdoanism in the post-secular Turkey, the veteran Turkish journalist, Mustafa Akyol writes in Foreign Policy:

It is no secret that President Recep Tayyip Erdoans 'New Turkey', which was hailed five years ago as the shining model of a Muslim democracy, now looks rather bleak. Turkey makes the news today not because of its domestic reforms and regional 'soft power', but because of its increasingly authoritarian regime and frequent terror attacks."

Given this ideological ambition of Erdoan, the question is: how does Erdoans diplomatic visit to India augur well for the secular and democratic credentials of the country? An earlier article in Firstpost has succinctly answered this: "It is staggering to think that Erdoan who wields power as a repressive, paranoid autocrat and has cemented his position through a dubious referendum has the temerity to lecture a democratic India on 'human rights'."

In his "lecture" at Jamia Millia Islamia, Erdoan said that he was delighted to receive the Doctors of Letters from a university which has played a pivotal role not only in Indias freedom movement but also in the Khilafat movement in the 1920s. In fact, Khilafat or Caliphate is the only ideal system of governance for the political Islamists even in this day and age of flourishing democracy. It is not difficult to see why this particular visit is a glad tiding for the Erdoanists in Turkey and their sympathisers and supporters in India who consider him the future Islamic caliph or amir-ul-muminin (chief of the believers).

Interestingly, both Recep Tayyip Erdoan and Narendra Modi hailed the cultural synthesis between the Indian and Turkish communities. While Erdoan, during his address in Jamia, stressed on "cultural and educational cooperation" as potential areas to advance the Indo-Turkish relations, Modi in his meet with the Turkish President, reiterated his clich that Sufism is a common ground between Indian and Turkish cultures. In his speech, Modi also referred to Rumis notion of tolerance and pluralism celebrating the spiritual synergy between the two countries. But ironically, much against Modi's expectation, Erdoan is shifting from the age-old Sufi tradition of Turkey to the modern and attractive fashion of political Islam.

Professor Anwar Alam, who has previously taught international relations at Zirve University in Turkey writes: "With his aspiration of becoming a political leader of the Muslim world and in view of his Islamically lashed anti-West polarising discourses, Erdogan is fast becoming a source of Islamic radicalism across the Muslim world." This is a point that the former National Security Adviser (NSA) Shiv Shankar Menon has also noted in his latest work, Choices: Inside Making of Indias Foreign Policy (2016).

In his visit to India, the Turkish president mainly focused on "trade and terror" and said that terrorism has to be fought collectively. "It is unfair to associate terrorism with any specific religion," he said in his address at Jamia, particularly castigating the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda. Erdoan, who himself advances the theory of Khilafat or "Islamic caliphate", lambasts the Islamic State (ISIS)!

On the other hand, Erdoan endorses the religious extremism growing in his country in the grab of political Islam. As a political Islamist leader, he wants his own Islamic state in Turkey. Since the time his party, Justice and Development Party (abbreviated as AKP in Turkish) came to power, Islamism has been employed in Turkey in a brutal way to further the political ends. The Islamist leaders of this Turkish political party profess and practise Islam as an ideology, rather than a spiritual path. Thus, it is self-evident that they will end up with the creation of an Islamic caliphate, sooner or later, which will ultimately eliminate the country's deep-rooted liberalism and secular democracy. Given this ideological perspective, caution is warranted on the Indian government's bid to enhance ties with the political Islamist regime of the present-day Turkey.

Originally posted here:
Narendra Modi govt must act cautiously in dealing with Turkey's Erdoan, not fuel a radical Islamist fire - Firstpost

posted at 2:41 pm on May 1, 2017 by Jazz Shaw

I realize its important to fill up your dance card, but this is looking rather grim. Only yesterday Allahpundit was left scratching his head over the fact that President Trump had extended an invitation to Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to come visit the White House. Given that the guy has openly admitted to committing murder and is looking forward to more of the same, its cast a bit of a pall over things. But for the record, Duterte hasnt actually accepted the invite yet, saying he might be busy on those dates with some other international travel.

Perhaps as a distraction from that social interaction, a few outlets this morning are confirming a story which was first floating around a week ago which indicated that Trump would also be hosting the tyrant of Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a couple of weeks.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will meet his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, at the White House in an upcoming visit in mid-May, Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said on Monday.

The invitation came from Trump, Kalin said, adding the two would discuss Syria, Iraq and the potential extradition of the U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara accuses of orchestrating a failed coup last year.

To call this a questionable gambit is a stretch. Sure, you might think of Duterte as the worse authoritarian of the two, what with all of the Murdery McMurderface activity, but Erdogans recent track record is worse in some ways. Keep in mind that it was only a few days ago when he locked up thousands more police officers on top of the tens of thousands of law enforcement officials, journalists and doctors he had already tossed in the dungeons. If you want a long list of our stories about the destruction of democracy in Turkey just browse through the list.

I get the fact that you cant completely ignore other world leaders, even when their behavior crosses well over the line of being questionable in some cases. We have a long relationship with the Philippines and until not all that long ago they were home to one of our biggest naval bases in that part of the world. We still have a significant presence in the region, though the relationship has been evolving for a while now. But theres a difference between maintaining something which at least resembles stable relations and having their leader over for high tea in the Rose Garden.

Same thing goes for Erdogan. Hes been holding an American pastor captive there for going on half a year and one of his most recent air strikes threatened to take out some American advisors in the area who were working with the Kurds. Add to that the rest of the tyranny activity and it makes for a particularly unsavory visit. I certainly hope that the President knows what hes doing here. If hes got some plan to bring Turkey back in line with democratic values and tone down the violence in the Philippines and thinks these meetings are part of that process then I will prepare to be pleasantly surprised. But does anyone else really see that as a likely scenario? I certainly dont.

Now Im just waiting to see if the President of Venezuela gets a free night in the Lincoln bedroom. Politics makes for strange bedfellows, but some of these meetings just seem over the line.

Continue reading here:
On the heels of Duterte, confirmation that Trump will host Erdogan at the White House - Hot Air

By: Express Web Desk | New Delhi | Updated: May 1, 2017 11:47 am President Pranab Mukherjee (left), Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan (Centre) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Rashtrapati Bhavan, New Delhi. Image: Rashtrapati Bhavan/Facebook

Turkey President Tayyip Erdogan will on Monday hold bilateral talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Erdogan, who arrived Sunday, is on a two-day visit to India, and this is his first visit to India as the Turkish President. Earlier in the day, Erdogan was awarded a ceremonial welcome by President Pranab Mukherjee at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. He also payed his tributes to Mahatma Gandhi at Rajghat, following which he addressed a FICCI business summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Here are the LIVE updates:

11.50 am: More on what Prime Minister Modi has said:

India and Turkey are among the top 20 largest economies in the world. Both economies have shown remarkable stability even in volatile global situations. We are optimistic about our economic prospects. There is immense goodwill for each other between the people of the two countries. Time has come to deepen economic relations.

There is huge potential to enhance bilateral engagement. This is possible through trade and FDI inflows, technology tieups and cooperation on various projects. We have seen some increase in participation of Turkish companies in some areas.

11.40 am: India and Turkey share a common outlook on the present economic order in the world, PM Modi has said, speaking at the India Turkey business summit.

11.30 am:Addressing the meeting, FICCI President Pankaj Patel said: The embrace of cultural and linguistic commonality has bounded our people for over a millennia. Turkeys geo-strategic location & Indias rising economic stock under leadership of Honble PM Modi, makes us ideal partners. Over 150 business delegates from Turkey are attending the business summit in New Delhi.

11.20 am: President Erdogan and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are currently attending the India-Turkey Trade Summit in New Delhi. In fact, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was not expected to attend the meeting, taking many by surprise.

11.00 am: At the FICCI meeting, President Erdogan will be accompanied by Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is also likely to address the gathering of business leaders from both the nations.

10.45 am: FICCI is all set to host the India-Turkey Business Summit. Erdogan is likely to address top businessman at the meeting. He is also accompanied by over 150 Turkish trade and business representatives looking to initiate businesses in India. Turkey is keen on investing in real estate and construction in India.

10.30 am:In its response, India has maintained that its position on Jammu and Kashmir is well known, and it stands by it. We have always emphasised that India-Turkey relations stand on their own footing and, we believe, the Turkish side reciprocates our sentiment, Ruchi Ghanashyam, Secretary (West) in the External Affairs Ministry, said, adding that Indias position on the state of J&K is very well known that it is an integral part of the country.

10.15 am: Days ahead of his visit to India, Erdogan spoke to news channel WION, where he expressed concern at the continuing stand-off between India and Pakistan on Kashmir. This is what he had to say: We should not allow more casualties to occur, and by strengthening multilateral dialogue, we can be involved, and through multilateral dialogue, I think we have to seek out ways to settle this question once and for all. Turkey also shares close ties with Pakistan and the statement could well come up for discussion during the meeting with PM Modi. He also said he supported both India and Pakistans bid to be part of the NSG, adding that India should give up its attitude of distancing itself from Pakistan which has a track record of nuclear proliferation.

10.00 am: At Rashtrapati Bhavan, Erdogan was accorded a ceremonial welcome. Erdogan was received by President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Here are the visuals of that ceremony. Erdogan will soonmeet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Hyderabad House.

9.50 am: Here aresome pictures of President Erdogan paying tribute to Mahatma Gandhi at the Rajghat memorial in the national capital. Erdogan will now head to Hyderabad House where he will hold bilateral talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Post the talks, the two leaders will issue a joint statement.

9.45 am:On trade and commerce, Turkey is hopeful that its relations with India will help boost its investments in the country. Turkeys Commercial Counsellor to India Vural ekinmez said Turkish companies wanting to enter the Indian market are already being provided support by Turkish officials in New Delhi, Daily Sabah reports. ekinmez further said that Erdogans visit could well be one of the most comprehensive meetings in India in recent years.

This visit will provide significant benefits for both Turkish business people who already have investments in India and those looking to potentially invest here,ekinmez told Daily Sabah.

9.35 am:Besides the bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Modi, a meeting with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj is also scheduled. The Erdogan-Swaraj meeting will take place following the bilateral talks between the two world leaders.

9.25 am:Given the threat Erdogan faces, specially from the Islamic State, security is at its peak.The Intelligence Bureau (IB) has directed security agencies to ensure that he is provided the highest security cover in the wake of threats from the ISIS. Moreover, security personnel deployed to ensure Erdogans safety have put in a request to carry weapons on them at all times. Erdogans aircraft, as well, has been provided round-the-clock security.

9.20 am:President Erdogan has arrived at Rashtrapati Bhavan where he inspects a ceremonial guard of honour. Accompanying him were President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. From here, he will head to Rajgath and pay his tributes to Mahatma Gandhi.

9.15 am: Besides the bilateral talks between the two nations, delegates from Turkey will also attend a India-Turkey Business Forum. About 150 delegates, representing Turkey businesses and trade, are accompanying Erdogan, along with his cabinet ministers and senior officials. They will participate in the India-Turkey Business Forum. In fact, Indias top business chambers FICCI and Assocham issued full page advertisments welcoming Erdogan to India, in a hope to build and take forward trade relations between the two nations.

9.10 am: Among the issues set to dominate the bilateral talks between the two nations are economic ties, cooperation in the fight against terrorism and Turkeys support to India in its bid to become a member in the coveted Nuclear Suppliers Group. The issue of terrorism has been key in Indias discussions with nations of the G20. It had also come up during the G20 meeting in Antalya in 2015.

9.00 am: This is not TayyipErdogans first visit. He had earlier visited the country in 2008 and held talks with then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Erdogan, then, however was not President but Prime Minister of Turkey. After eleven years as Prime Minister, he was elected President in 2014.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, has met President Erdogan. The meeting took place during the 2015 G-20 Antalya summit, in Turkey. You can watch a brief video of that meeting below. At the G20 meeting, terror was the key focus and Prime Minister Modi called for all nations to unite against terrorism and states that have been allowing the territory to be used as safe havens for terror organisations. You can read about that meeting here.

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Erdogan in India LIVE updates: Turkey President to hold bilateral talks with PM Modi today - The Indian Express

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) issending a stern warning to US President Donald Trump (right) over US support for Kurdish fighters whom Ankara tags as terrorists. INQUIRER FILES

ISTANBUL, Turkey By launching air strikes against Syrian Kurdish fighters and threatening more action, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to send a tough message to Donald Trump in the hope of bringing about a major U-turn in US Syria policy.

Turkey last week bombed targets of the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, earning the wrath of its Nato ally Washington and on Sunday Erdogan warned more action could be imminent.

We can come unexpectedly in the night, said Erdogan. We are not going to tip off the terror groups and the Turkish Armed Forces could come at any moment.

The YPG has been seen by the United States as the best ally on the ground in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) jihadists in Syria and Trump has inherited a policy from Barack Obama of actively supporting the group.

But Ankara says the YPG is a terror outfit and the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who have waged an insurgency since 1984 inside Turkey that has left tens of thousands dead.

Analysts say the dispute will be the number one issue when Erdogan meets Trump for the first time as president on May 16 in the United States. Failing to resolve the problem could seriously harm US efforts to destroy ISIS in Syria.

The strikes are manifestly a sign of impatience by Turkey and part of a long line of appeals telling the US to stop supporting the YPG, said Jean Marcou, professor at Sciences Po Grenoble and associate researcher at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies.

Since Trumps election, Turkey had indicated it wanted a change in US policy on the YPG support. But in reality Erdogan has obtained nothing for now, he said.

The cooperation between Washington and the YPG, which saw the United States send a limited number of forces to work with the group, led to bitter tensions between Ankara and Washington in the dying months of the Obama administration.

The US backed the formation of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by the YPG but also including Arab fighters, yet Ankara contends it is merely a front from the Kurdish group.

In an unusual move after days of border clashes between the Turkish army and YPG that followed the air strikes, the US sent military vehicles to the Syrian side of the frontier to carry out patrols in an apparent bid to prevent further fighting.

Erdogan said the sight of American flags in the convoy alongside YPG insignia had seriously saddened Turkey.

The Turkish president, fresh from winning the controversial April 16 referendum on enhancing his powers, has indicated that the rewards for Washington in breaking up with the YPG could be high by spurring Turkish involvement in a joint operation to take the ISIS fiefdom of Raqa.

Together the United States can turn Raqa into a graveyard for Daesh (ISIS), Erdogan said on Saturday.

But Ankara has made clear it will have nothing to do with any operation involving the YPG and analysts say Turkey could even be a threat to a Raqa operation if it is not included.

Washington was reluctant to launch the Raqa operation before Turkeys April 16 referendum to avoid potential complications with Ankara, said Aykan Erdemir, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

He said the Turkish air strikes which were combined with strikes against the PKK in Iraq brought another unanticipated challenge to coalition efforts against the jihadists.

Tensions among coalition members have been one of the key factors for the Islamic States continued survival, he said.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its latest report on the Syria crisis that the US had a singular dilemma on the future of its relationship with the YPG

It said the YPG is indispensable to defeat ISIS but there is also no avoiding the fact that the US is backing a force led by PKK-trained cadres in Syria while the PKK itself continues an insurgency against a Nato ally.

It said that Turkey had pressed ahead with the air strikes despite US objections and this should serve as a warning for what could lie in store.

But it said while the YPG was counting on American and also Russian support as a bulwark against Turkey, the importance of the country will mean Trump will have an ear for Erdogans concerns.

Ultimately Washington will likely view relations with Turkey - a Nato member and critical ally - as more important to its broader strategic interests, it said. CBB/rga

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Original post:
Erdogan sends Trump stern message on Syrian Kurds - Inquirer.net