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Members of an internally-displaced Syrian family sit together outside a tent near the wall in Atmah IDP camp, located near the border with Turkey, Feb. 26, 2020. Photo: Reuters / Khalil Ashawi / File.

Turkeys war with the Assad regime in Syria brings to mind the words of the late Prime Minister Menachem Begin during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War: We wish both sides the best of success.

Turkeys recent invasion of Syria was aimed not at the Kurds, for a change, but at the Assad regime, as well as its supporters from the Axis of Resistance. The ceasefire announced between Ankara and Moscow is unlikely to last. Previous Russian attempts at finding a diplomatic solution in Syria have all ended in failure. Furthermore, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needs to achieve a complete victory on behalf of the rebellion in Idlib if he wishes to remain in power.

Turkeys airstrikes in Syria killed nine members of Hezbollah, several Shiite militiamen supported by Iran, and dozens of Syrian troops. In response, Iran warned Ankara against targeting its people, noting that Turkish bases are in Tehrans range of fire. It also sent more militiamen to aid the regime in recapturing Idlib.

Turkeys attacks were viewed as justified by much of the international community. They came after Syrian-Russian airstrikes on Idlib massacred hundreds of innocent civilians and killed dozens of Turkish soldiers.

March 30, 2020 10:24 am

Turkey has NATOs second-biggest army, and it is well-positioned to deal severe damage to the Syrian regime. Given that both Assad and Vladimir Putin are widely despised, it is unlikely that Turkeys venture into Syria which has damaged Damascus tanks, air defenses, jets, and military bases will come under censure.

At the same time, it is unlikely that Ankara will go so far as to provoke Russia by killing Assad or directly engaging Russian troops. Turkey, while a formidable military power in its own right, cannot challenge Russia. Nor would its more influential or stronger NATO partners allow it to take such steps. Nobody wants a third world war, particularly over the likes of Syria. It is, however, possible that the West and Israel would provide diplomatic support and perhaps arms or intelligence to Ankara, as they all share common goals: to degrade Assads regime, prove that Russia is still relatively powerless in the region, and evict Iran from Syria.

Iran and its proxies are in an unenviable position. President Donald Trumps sanctions campaign has left Irans economy in a terrible recession. Unless the coronavirus crisis upends his prospects, Trump is unlikely to be removed from office in November, meaning that in all likelihood, the sanctions will stay and even intensify. Irans top general, Qassem Soleimani, was killed by a US drone strike in January, along with its leading commander of the Iraqi Shiite militias, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The shooting down of a Ukrainian airliner, widespread protests within the country, and the coronavirus outbreak have worsened Irans isolation, further crippled the economy, and sapped the regimes internal legitimacy.

The Islamic Republic does not have the funds to continue waging war in Syria. In its near-abroad, its forces are being targeted in the south by the Israelis (Syria), in the north by the Turks (Syria), in the west by the Americans (Iraq), and perhaps soon from the east by the Taliban.

The American deal with the Taliban is likely to see the group refocus its attention on its historic enemy Shiite Iran. The Iranian government may soon have to redeploy its Shiite Afghan mercenaries from Syria to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban and other Sunni jihadists there, further undermining its ability to fulfill its goals in Syria.

No matter how many personnel Iran transfers from Iraq or Lebanon, they will continually be targeted by enemy forces. The regime has neither the money nor the manpower to sustain this kind of indefinite upkeep, especially with anti-Iranian sentiment continuing to simmer in Beirut and Baghdad.

With the spread of coronavirus in both Iraq and Lebanon, the economic paralysis in Lebanon, and the Iran-related sanctions weakening Hezbollah, the Iranian regime will have limited capability to enter into a war with Israel anytime soon giving the Jewish state more time to improve its capabilities and prepare for such a war in the future.

A combination of economic, diplomatic, and health threats as well as the Turkish invasion of Syria is distracting the attention of the Iranians, Russians, and others, which is giving Israel cover to continue attacking Iran-related sites in Syria and Iraq. This aligns with Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennetts stated goal of extirpating the Iranians from Syria by the beginning of 2021.

While the Turks are busy pursuing Assad and his Shiite allies, they will have less latitude to pursue their goals in Libya or Kurdistan. The Kurds, like Turkey and Israel, are interested in seeing a weakening of the Iranian presence in Syria and Iraq. If the Turkish army is otherwise engaged, its possible that the Kurds will be able to claw back some of their territory that was occupied by Ankara. With Russia and Assad weaker and more distracted, the Kurds might be able to either demand more from them in a deal in which they join a new Syria, or assist the Syrian army against the Turks. Theoretically, this could lead to Kurdish autonomy or a promise of equal rights in a united Syria, though this is unlikely unless extremist Shiite forces are completely expunged from the region or unequivocally defeated.

Given that Ankara is facing the entire Axis of Resistance and must prepare for the possibility of a widening of the conflict to include Russia, it cannot expand its plans for Libya or the Kurds. General Khalifa Haftar is likely to take advantage of this situation and seize as much territory as he can from the Turkish-backed forces in Syria and Libya with whom he is battling. The fact that Turkey is backing jihadist elements loyal to ISIS and Al-Qaeda means it is not likely to receive any concrete Western military aid in that operation indeed, it is more likely to face greater international scrutiny as the operation drags on and human suffering increases.

Turkeys expulsion of Syrian refugees from its territory into Europe which has so far been blocked by the Greek military and police is unlikely to gain it much sympathy in Brussels. It is more likely to turn Europeans against Ankara and promote the advancement of the kind of far-right governments Erdogan rails against.

In the end, it is possible that a combination of Israeli and Turkish military force, as well as external factors, will severely weaken the Assad regime, degrade and destroy Hezbollah and Shiite mercenaries in Syria, and force the Iranians out of the country. However, the Turks will probably be forced out as well. The world will not tolerate Ankaras backing of extremist elements, nor allow it to drag Russia and NATO into a world war.

It is likely that Turkey will leave Assad in power for fear of provoking Russia too much and then leave, having failed to redesign Syria and Kurdistan in line with its neo-Ottoman aspirations. More Turkish troops will come home in coffins on behalf of a regime that is shunned by its own people as well as the UN. The countrys ailing economy wont allow for victory in Libya either. Russia will have done its job of keeping Assad alive, probably to retake Idlib from jihadists in the future and allow for the repatriation of refugees.

But Assad will be loathed by the world after having committed terrible atrocities. His economy will be destitute and he will have little real power, leaving him reliant on Moscow for protection. Russia too will be seen as a country that could not use diplomacy to achieve its aims and had to resort to violence and war crimes. This will most likely propel the Arab Gulf countries back toward the US and Europe.

Whatever the international community might think about it, Moscow will likely end up with sole dominion over Syria, having evicted Turkey and Iran its two historic imperial rivals from the country. This should prevent a Syrian-Israeli war and could even, in theory, lead to peace between the two countries. It could also lead to more rights for the Kurdish people in Syria including autonomy unless they become united enough to push for independence once again.

The Turkish intervention has the potential to bring down both neo-Ottomanism and the radical Shiite revolution that Iran has been trying to spread. Again lets wish both sides the best of success.

Dmitri Shufutinsky is a graduate of Arcadia Universitys Masters program in International Peace& Conflict Resolution. He lives in Kibbutz Erez, Israel as a Lone Soldier in the Garin Tzabar program. He was drafted into Michve Alon on December 15.

A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

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Turkey's Intervention in Syria Could Bring Down Erdogan and Iran - Algemeiner

Turkeys Erdogan and Russias Putin in Zhukovsky, Russia, on August 27, 2019(Sputnik / Aleksey Nikolskyi / Kremlin via Reuters)

Putin and Erdogan are meeting in Sochi. That resort town is for more than the Olympics. The meeting, said the New York Times, is an opportunity for Putin and Erdogan to consolidate their gains in Syria in the wake of President Trumps sudden withdrawal of American troops. Talks between the two men highlight the loss of American influence in the days sinceMr. Trump ordered troops to withdrawfrom northeast Syria.

At the airport in Ankara, before he left for Russia, Erdogan said something almost touching: With my dear friend Putin, we will discuss the current situation...

It is a new world, yes, one that some Americans like, a lot, and one that others of us think is ominous. Last year, after his latest fraudulent election, Erdogan staged his latest inauguration. The list of attendees was instructive, and predictable: Medvedev of Russia (standing in for Putin). Orbn of Hungary. Maduro of Venezuela.

Maduro pronounced Erdogan a leader of the new multi-polar world which is accurate.

The year before, Orbn had said, We all sense its in the air that the world is in the process of a substantial realignment. He was meeting with Putin who hailed Hungary as an important and reliable partner for Russia in Europe.

That is certainly true.

After the Americans cleared out and Erdogan invaded Syria, Erdogan met with Orbn, in Baku. The Turk thanked the Hungarian for his support on the world stage as well he might have. Orbn has, for example, blocked EU resolutions against Turkey.

Two articles this week tell us about Putin and Orbn, and their influence on Trump their influence on him when it comes to Ukraine, in particular. For a Times report, go here; for a Washington Post report, go here. Putin and Orbn hate Ukraine, of course. Ukraine is a new democracy under siege. Indeed, Putin is warring against Ukraine, literally.

A State Department official, George Kent, testified before Congress on Ukraine. Specifically, he addressed the question of why our president is thinking and acting the way he is. Putin and Orbn have filled Trumps head a receptive head, to be sure.

Let me bless the names of two other officials: John R. Bolton and Fiona Hill. Bolton, as you know, was until recently Trumps national security adviser; Hill, until recently, was the leading Russia expert on the National Security Council staff.

Earlier this year, Trump received Orbn at the White House. According to the Times, Bolton and Hill opposed this development. They believed that Orbn did not deserve the honor of an Oval Office visit, which would be seen as a huge political coup for an autocratic leader ostracized by many of his peers in Europe. Mick Mulvaney, the chief of staff, or acting chief of staff, was enthusiastic about the visit, as he is about Orbn.

No one is more enthusiastic than Trump. Its like were twins, Trump said to Orbn. We learned this from David Cornstein, an old friend of Trumps who is now our ambassador in Budapest. Orbn has built an illiberal regime that some find enviable. Listen to Ambassador Cornstein: I can tell you, knowing the president for a good 25 or 30 years, that he would love to have the situation that Viktor Orbn has, but he doesnt.

Finally, listen to Mark Esper, our new secretary of defense: We had no obligation, if you will, to defend the Kurds from a longstanding NATO ally, meaning Turkey. So now NATO is important, in the minds of the Trump administration? We must oblige the anti-American, Islamist dictatorship of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but were not so sure about the liberal democracies of Europe?

It is a new world, ladies and gentlemen, and as conservatives know all too well, new is not necessarily good.

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Trump, Putin, Erdogan, and Orbn, and Our New World ...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday called for a solution through dialogue for the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India.

In his address at the UN General Assembly session in New York, Erdogan criticised the international community for failing to pay attention to the Kashmir conflict, which, he said, awaits solution for 72 years.

The president said the stability and prosperity of South Asia cannot be separated from the Kashmir issue.

"In order for the Kashmiri people to look at a safe future together with their Pakistani and Indian neighbors, it is imperative to solve the problem through dialogue and on the basis of justice and equity, but not through collision," said Erdogan.

"Despite the resolutions adopted, [India-occupied] Kahsmir is still besieged and eight million people are stuck in Kashmir," he said.

"The invasions, conflicts and terrorist activities for almost four decades in Afghanistan have led to instability in the region," he said while talking about the region.

The India-occupied region has been facing a clampdown since August 5, when the Indian government nixed Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which conferred a special status on it.

Hundreds of people, mostly political leaders, have been detained or arrested by authorities since the Indian government made the move.

India and Pakistan hold Kashmir in parts and claim it in full.

Following Erdogan's remarks, Prime Minister Imran Khan thanked him for raising the issue of occupied Kashmir at the UNGA and for calling for a solution to the long-standing dispute.

In a subsequent tweet, the premier said: "I appreciate President Erdogan's statement that the stability and prosperity of South Asia cannot be separated from the Kashmir issue."

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Erdogan calls for dialogue to end Kashmir dispute - World ...

According to a recent survey by the pollster Konda, a growing number of Turksidentify as atheists. Konda reports that the number of nonbelievers tripled in the past 10 years. It also found that the share of Turks who say theyadhere to Islam dropped from 55 percent to 51 percent.

"There is religious coercion in Turkey," said 36-year-old computer scientist Ahmet Balyemez, who has been an atheist for over 10 years. "People ask themselves: Is this the true Islam?" he added. "When we look at the politics of our decision-makers, we can see they are trying to emulate the first era of Islam. So, what we are seeing right now is primordial Islam."

Balyemez said he grew up in a very religious family. "Fasting and praying were the most normal things for me," he said. But then, at some point, he decided to become an atheist.

Balyemez said atheism provided an attractive alternative to religious coercion

Diyanet, Turkey's official directorate of religious affairs, declared in 2014 that more than 99 percent of the population identifies as Muslim. When Konda's recent survey with evidence to the contrary was published, heated public debate ensued.

The theologian Cemil Kilic believes that both figures are correct. Though 99 percent of Turks are Muslim, he said, many only practice the faith in a cultural and sociological sense. They are cultural, rather than spiritual, Muslims.

Kilic said Muslims who regularly pray, go on pilgrimages or wear veils could generally be considered pious, though, he added, being true to the faith means much more than just performing rituals or opting for certain outerwear. In his view, "judging whether a person is religious should also be based on whether he or she subscribes to certain ethical and humanitarian values." When only taking into account people who practice Islam, he said, "no more than 60 percent of people in Turkey can be considered Muslim."

"The majority of Muslims in Turkey are like the Umayyads, who ruled in the seventh century," Kilic said. "The prayers contained in the Koran reject injustice. But the Umayyads regarded daily prayer as a form of showing deference towards the sultan, the state and the powers that be."

In Turkey, Kilic said, the relationship between organized religion andthe state endures. "Regular prayers have become a way to signal obedience toward the political leadership," he said. "And prayers in mosques increasingly reflect the political worldview of those in power."

Kilic said a lack of belief did not, of course, mean the lack of a moral compass. "Some atheists are more ethical and conscientious than many Muslims," he said.

For nearly 16 years under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, first as prime minister and since 2014 as president, Turkish officials have increasingly used Islam to justify their politics possibly increasingthe skepticism surrounding faith in government. "People reject the predominant interpretation of Islam, the sects, religious communities, the directorate of religious affairs and those in power," he said. "They do not want this kind of religion and this official form of piousness." This, Kilic said, could help explain why so many Turks now identify as atheists.

Kilic said atheists' morals were often more consistent than those expressed by the pious

'Questioning their faith'

Selin Ozkohen, who heads Ateizm Dernegi, Turkey's main association for atheists, said Erdogan's desire to produce a generation of devout Muslims had backfired in many ways. "Religious sects and communities have discredited themselves," she said. "We have always said that the state should not be ruled by religious communities, as this leads to people questioning their faith and becoming humanist atheists."

Ozkohen citedthe unsuccessful coupin 2016,in which followers of the preacher and religious scholarFethullah Gulen are accused of rising up against Erdogan, a former ally of the theologian's. The coup, she said, was a clash between opposing religious groups which was followed by a major crackdown by Erdogan. "People have noticed this and distanced themselves," she said. "Those who reflect rationally on this turn to atheism."

As a result, Ozkohen said, "today, people are more courageous and willing to openly say they are atheists." But the government continues to coerce people to conform to perceived religious standards. "Pressure is exerted in the neighborhoods and mosques," she said. "And the most visible sign of this is that in 2019, schoolchildren are still obliged to study religion."

Having lived and worked in Turkey since early 2012, DW's Bradley Secker has traveled extensively around Turkey. Driving from Izmir city from the airport, this huge bust of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk on the outskirts of the city is hard to miss.

A waxwork of Ataturk dressed in a military uniform sits at a desk in his former home in Istanbul, which is now a museum.

A sculptor makes the final touches to a cast of Ataturk before varnishing it at a workshop in the northern Istanbul area of Levent. It will be placed in a school playground.

Carpets depicting Ataturk hang alongside other well-known figures, such as Che Guevara, Bashar Assad, Imam Hussein and the Virgin Mary at a market in the southern Turkish city of Antakya, close to the border with Syria. The city is ethnically and religiously mixed, and a proportion of the population supports Assad for ideological, political or religious reasons.

Turkey has one remaining Ataturk lookalike who works professionally in television, film, and at public events. Goksal Kaya, who's from Izmir, travels around Turkey and Europe for various events where he appears as a symbolic, personal version of Ataturk. Everywhere he goes he's surrounded by people asking for selfies, with some even crying when they see him.

During a rally of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), a man in the crowd shows his allegiance to Ataturk.

Along a quiet stretch of the central Istanbul coastline, near the tourist hub of Sultanahmet, Ataturk looks out over the city toward the Bosporus, the strait which separates the western European side of the city from its eastern Asian part.

For almost a month every year in Ataturk village, a short drive from Turkey's eastern border with Georgia, the sun sets at a certain position casting a shadow over a valley. For around an hour, that shadow perfectly resembles Ataturk's profile. The local council has built a viewing area.

For a while, during the Gezi park protests in Istanbul in 2013, an elderly man walked around the city drawing portraits of Ataturk like this one, inside the shape of a heart. Because defacing or destroying an image of Ataturk is frowned upon in Turkey, the drawings mostly remain around the city.

A portrait of Ataturk and Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan hang next to a Turkish flag in Erdogan's former football club in Kasimpasa, Istanbul. The neighborhood in which Erdogan grew up is predominantly working class, and Erdogan's supporters see him as one of their own due to his humble roots.

Author: Bradley Secker (Turkey)

At 1830 UTC, DW's editors send out a selection of news and features. Sign up to receive it here.

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Atheism grows in Turkey as Recep Tayyip Erdogan urges ...

Less than a month ago the Turkish states mouthpiece the daily Yeni afak ran an article for Erdogan titled A call for urgent action and on the newspapers website headlined What if an army of Islam formed against Israel?

It called for the 57 member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to form a joint army to simultaneously attack Israel from all sides.

The article said: If the member states of the OIC unite militarily, they will form the worlds largest and most comprehensive army.

The number of active soldiers would be at least 5,206,100, while the defence budget would reach approximately $175billion (124billion).

This was accompanied by an interactive map providing formation of military forces for a joint Muslim attack on Israel.

The article provided additional details of the plan, saying: It is expected that 250,000 soldiers will participate in the first of a possible operation.

Land, air and naval bases of member states located in the most critical regions will be used.

Joint bases will be constructed in a short period of time It is possible for 500 tanks and armoured vehicles, 100 planes and 500 attack helicopters and 50 ships to mobilise quickly.

Erdogan did not deny his support for the report and has on several occasions said he would like to resurrect the Ottoman Empire.

The tyrant has established military bases in Qatar and Somalia and recently reached an agreement with Sudan to acquire a Sudanese island in the Red Sea to be used as a military base.

He has also repeatedly threatened to invade Greek islands in the Mediterranean and has recently invaded Syria under the pretext of fighting Kurdish terrorism.

Erdogan has also locked up journalists and activists who have spoken out against his regime.

But the European Union is urging members to approve a further 3.7billion (3.28billion) to help Turkey deal with Syrian refugees who arrived in their country.

Brussels will now push to get Turkey the extra 2.7 billion (2.4billion) from national governments, some of whom may be unwilling to pump new cash into the country.

Europe's relations with Erdogan has been fraught in recent years but the EU depends on Turkey to keep a tight lid on immigration from the Middle East, where the war in Syria has killed hundreds of thousands and pushed millions from homes.

However, a draft document seen by Politico notes that if countries do not contribute and order the money be taken from the EU budget only, standard EU rules would apply and the member states would be excluded from the governance of the facility (for refugees in Turkey).

Top EU officials will meet Erdogan on March 26 in the Bulgarian city of Varna despite misgivings among many on the European side.

The bloc's top migration official Dimitris Avramopoulos will announce on Wednesday that the European Commission proposes the extra funding on projects benefiting Syrian refugees in Turkey.

Turkey has accepted 3.5 million refugees from Syria, and the EU is already spending a first 3billion (2.1billion) instalment to help them.

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World War 3: Turkey President Erdogan calls for army of ...