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You are here: Home Featured General Highlight Erdogan Has Just Been Declared The Leader Of The Entire Muslim World, Muslims Are Already Calling Him God

On the right, Hayrettin Karaman , the main Fatwa giver in Turkey who is announcing to prep Erdogan as Caliph of the Muslim World

By Walid Shoebat

Below we will discuss a multitude of biblical references to show how far this one man matches what Scripture refers to as the man of sin, but before we do, 2016 will yield muchto monitor Turkeys rise to a Caliphate system which its initiation was sparked when on this Friday, HayrettinKaraman, Erdogans main Fatwa giver issued some very strange declarations.

As hewrote for Yeni Safak, the pro-Erdogan main newspaper under the control of Erdogan in Istanbul. In his article regardingthe new presidential systemwhich Erdogan wants to establish, Karamandesperately defended Erdogan and declaredwhat we were saying all along they will do; that Erdoganwill soonbecome the Caliph for all Muslims.The following is a presentation of the exciting part in an article Hayrettin Karamanwrote:

During the debate on the presidential system, here is whateveryonemust do so while taking into account the direction of the worlds national interest and the future of the country and not focus on the party or a particular person. What this [presidential system] looks like is the Islamic caliphate system in terms of its mechanism. In this system the people choose the leader, the Prince,and then all willpledge the Bayah[allegiance] and then the chosen president appointsthe high government bureaucracy and he cannot interfere in the judiciary where the Committee will audit legislation independent of the president. HayrettinKaraman

This one statement yields a multitude of prophetic consequences. Bayat,as Islam calls it, which is giving allegiance, is the hallmark of theAntichristas John declared:but the fatal wound was healed! The whole world marveled at this miracle andgave allegianceto the beast (Revelation 13:3).

And here this man who is given allegiance to is called The Prince, exactly as predicted in Daniel 9:26.

Erdogan qualifies to be king of fierce countenance (Daniel 8:23)

Karaman is the major Islamist fatwa-giver in Turkey, one of Erdogans main henchmen and a practitioner of Muruna, the Muslim Brotherhoods allowance for sanctioning Islamic prohibition in the case of Jihad, which means that the Mufti can bendIslamic Sharia to produce favorable fatwas, whatever it takes to establish an Islamic Caliphate. Hosea 12:7 tells us of the Antichrist: He is a merchant, the balances of deceit are in his hand: he loveth to oppress. The Balance of deceit is exactly how the three decade Islamic doctrine,Muruna, is defined as the Doctrine of Balance where a Muslim can balance between good and evil and is sanctioned to do evil for the sake of victory. He will be a master of deception and will become arrogant; he will destroy many without warning. (Daniel 8:25)

As Todays Zaman assessErdogans caliphate of corruption through Muruna and by giving him full allegiance:

This is how Erdogan was able to legitimize the corrupt and illegal practices of the Islamist politicians and businessmen. This includes getting bank credit with interest, a system not sanctioned by Islam but is sanctioned through Muruna, donating huge amounts of money to the charities of politicians in return for favorable public tenders and contracts, and even getting people killed for the benefit of the state. As Ali Bula wrote some time ago, Erdoan started getting these fatwas after becoming mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

According to the general theory of political Islam, the relationship between those who lead and those who are led is based upon a contract of allegiance. Those who are led declare, via their representatives, thatthey will obey their leader, thussurrendering all of their political rights unconditionally to said leader. And so the contract draws up the parameters for both sides: The leaderwill lead justly, while thosewho are led will be obedient. In the meantime, within the traditions of political Islam,those who use their power in this way are calledcaliphs. And a caliphate is, for leaders who rely upon religious references in the Islamic world, the name of the system that they will inevitably turn towards.

Karaman very recently wrote another column on the caliphate. He argues that it is the best regime. His formulation is not a democratic one. Similar to Irans ayatollahs and mullahs, he wants to create a mullahcracy where the serious decisions will be given by Erdoans mouthpiece fatwa-givers, not by the people. His Yeni Safak piece is one the greatest enigmas of the Erdoan era.

The situation in Turkey as some analysts reveal is likened to the Nazi era just prior to the holocaust. Erdogan wants the annihilation, a literal holocaust, of all of his opponents. Daily Zaman, the Turkish news media persecuted by Erdogan exposes:

Nowadays, the AKPs propaganda machine propagates that Hizmet volunteers are traitors and infidels. According to a poll that the stanbul Institute conducted, 40 percent of people believe the Hizmet is made up of infidels. Many more see the movement as a puppet of the West. Pro-Justice and Development Party (AKP) figure Hayrettin Karaman issued a terrible fatwa about two years ago that, for the sake of protecting the state civilians and religious groups, should be terminated. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutolu stated that for the state, even the offspring of Hizmet volunteers should be sacrificed. Many pro-AKP figures in social media keep writing that the lives, properties and wives of the Hizmet volunteers are halal (permissible to be confiscated) by the Caliph, i.e. Erdoan.

We are of course not at that stage, thanks to external and domestic factors. Yet, the AKP regime started imprisoning Hizmet volunteers just because they donated money to Hizmet associations. The AKP has also been confiscating properties of Hizmet businessmen. So far, similar to the Holocaust, very few people in Turkey and abroad have vehemently objected to this and many more have been silently watching, thanks to the anti-Hizmet propaganda that they have been listening to for decades.

Hizmet is theGlen movement and is a transnational religious and social movement led by TurkishIslamicscholar and preacherFethullah Glen. The movement has no official name but it is usually referred to asHizmet(the Service) by its followers and asCemaat(the Community/Assembly) by the broader public in Turkey.

When viewed in light of the natural balances between civil and political Islam, the current tension we see between the Glen movement and Erdoan makes much more sense. The war unleased by Erdoan against the Glen movement is at the same time a war unleashed by political Islam against civil Islam. By declaring the civil arena the enemy, Erdoan has radicalized the political arena. And today, in order to wield power and authority that is not constitutionally his,Erdoan has a need for strong Islamic models such as the caliphate.

The article written by a man with foresight named Ihsan Yilmaz concluded:

I do not want to disrespect the noble memory of the Holocaust victims by likening their terrible fate to what is happening nowadays to the Hizmet Movement volunteers in Turkey. The Holocaust is not, and cannot be, comparable with any human suffering on earth. It is unique. Nevertheless, I argue that human nature has always essentially been the same and evil humans have always acted in similar ways. The motivations, argumentations, tactics and actions of todays cruel humans are not very much different from the Nazis. It is true that what Hizmet volunteers have suffered so far is not even one millionth of what the innocent Jews suffered. But if the evil people in Turkey can find it necessary to eradicate the movement and if they can find the opportunity, they will not hesitate to follow the footsteps of the Nazis. Let me explain.

First of all, unfortunately, Turkish socio-political culture is not immune from the sickness of trying to destroy the other. Especially when it comes to political dissent, the states on these lands have acted swiftly and brutally. Ottoman history is full of such terrible examples of crushing dissent by brute force, the Alevis being the main sufferers. What the secular-nationalist Young Turks did to the Armenians in 1915 speaks for itself. While hundreds of thousands of Armenian men, women and children lost their lives, their Kurdish and Turkish neighbors were either buying their goods and properties for very cheap prices or they were looting them. The many heroic Kurds and Turks (officials and civilians) who helped the Armenians were not treated well by the rulers. The Greeks also had similar problems. During the night of September 6-7, 1955, their goods and properties were looted as a result of a government-motivated pogrom. While some Alevi intellectuals were being burned, most probably by the deep state, at a hotel in Madimak in the early 1990s, thousands of Sunni civilians were watching the fire without feeling anything, to say the least.

When Erdogans party had a major setback, many thought it was his end. But by meticulous study of Daniels text, we accurately predicted the reverse will happen (and we were accurate to the letter):

For the first time in 13 years, the Turkish AKP, led by President Erdogan and Prime Minister Davutoglu, has lost its majority hold on the parliament which held312 of the 550 seats in parliament and now only holds 258 seats while the other three (CHP, MHP and HDP) now has 292 seats.

So doesthis set back mean the end for Erdogan and the AKP Party and are we to now eliminate the man of Turkey as the wrong candidate from being the Antichrist?

Hardly.

In fact, such a loss bolsters the biblical argument since unlike what most imagine, that the Antichrist storms in because through his charisma he gains a popular vote. On the contrary, Antichrist, as we are told by Daniel, does not gain prominence by majority support:

With the force of a flood they shall be swept away from before him and be broken, and also the prince of the covenant. Andafter the leagueis madewith himhe shall act deceitfully, for he shall come up andbecome strong with a smallnumber ofpeople. (Daniel 11:23)

The Antichrist, when he emerges, he forms a league and advances with a small number of supporters. Historically, the AKP began from a small number of people, the Refah Welfare Party which participated in the1991 electionsin a triple alliance with theNationalist Movement Party(MHP) and theReformist Democracy Party(IDP) to gain 16.9% of the vote. It was truly the incumbentPresidentRecep Tayyip Erdoan,a former member of the party, but later foundedJustice and Development Party(AKP) who catapulted the AKP to what it is today which still holds over 40 percent of the seats defeating all the other three. This is truly a victory for the Erdoganwho started with a few number of people.

And now that Erdogan will uprootthe three horns in Turkeys government, 2016 will have major consequences to world events, especially prophetically, and by 2018, we estimate the prophetic scene will be very clear and by 2023, we foresee that all hell will break loose.

So what are the chances of soon seeing the rise of the Antichrist and what of these criteria does Erdogan match? And what are the probabilitiesthat one man hits the nail on several issues?

The results will shock many to find any other man that fits the labels. In everything Erdogan does, Erdogan parallels Antiochus Epiphanies. He causeddeceitto prosper (Daniel8:25). He isking of fierce countenance (Daniel 8:23).

He is starting animosity with Egypt(Daniel 11:42).Erdogan wants to become chief and prince of Meshech and Tubal (Ezekiel 38:2, Mushki and Tabalani in Asia Minor/Turkey). He is changing set laws (Daniel 7:25) to make solid his princely title.If Tayyip Erdoan shifts to a presidential system, he will probablyassign advisors from the regions under the caliphateand open representative agenciesof all Islam Union nations in that 1,005-room [the presidential palace] in Betepe, said Dilipak speaking at a conference organized by AKP Toronto Election Coordination Center in Canada.

Dilipak also added that Erdoan would assign advisersfor all Muslim nations in the world.Erdoan has been known for his longtime aspiration for a presidential (in reality Caliphate) system in the country. The crowds wavesto him thefiery red,hyacinth blue, andsulfur yellow (Revelation 9:17). It would be a matter of time to get these colors into their new emblem.

After the victory, Erdogans supporters waved the fiery red, hyacinth blue and sulphur yellow banners that resemble the Islamist party.

Erdogan matches Habakkuk who speaks of Antichristas the Proud Man who enlarged his desires as hell, and is as death, and cannot be satisfied, but gathereth unto him all nations, and heapeth unto him all peoples (2:5). Erdogan is definately a proud man who desires to gather unto him all nations in his neo-Ottoman Caliphate dream to unite the Muslim world. He denies Father and Son (1 John 2:22) and does not honor the God of his fathers asTurkey at one point in time was Christian.

He started with a small number of people (Daniel 11:23, see explanation in this article above). He blasphemes against the most high even accepting worship. (2 Thess 2). Erdogan is hailed in Turkey not only as Sultan but as a prophet healer andone who can even change the laws of the universe: Spring has come to Sanliurfa. Bothnature and historyarerisingup togreet our prime minister, says Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek on Erdogans visit to the southeastern province of Sanliurfa on March 9th. Yet the Finance Minister did not face any sanctions from Erdoganfor declaration of divinity and neither didAKP lawmaker Fevai Aslan who on January 16th when he said: Erdogan is a leader whogathers all of Allahs qualities in himself. Neither did theDeputy Health Minister Agah Kafkas was reprimanded when on May 19, 2013 hesaid: To do what Erdogan does is sunna.Sunna which theDeputy Health Minister was referring to is theobedience to Muhammad. In other words, to obey Erdogan is to obey the Prophet himself! And neither wasAKP lawmaker Huseyin Sahin on July 20, 2011 was reprimanded by Erdogan for saying: Believe me, eventouching our prime ministerisworshipto me.

These are major figures and Erdogan is acting as if he is Christ who did not denounce worshiping Him and Erdogan did not denounce worship either. And if one thinks that its only the followers who elevate Erdogan to prophet, healer, master of the universe and nature, or deity, think again. One news media from Istanbul, wrote this regarding Edrogan himself, firing anyone who denounces him beingGod.

Even when we declared Jalal al-Din Rumi. We concluded thiscrucial issue since Sufi Islam adheres to a theology calledFanain which man can declare himself to beingGod Erdogan afterwards, two weeks ago and just as we predicted, elevated Rumi in order to allow for such theology:

He traveled to the Central Anatolian province in order to attend the eb-i Aruz (Night of Union) ceremony to commemorate the 741st anniversary of the death of Jalaladdin Rumi (Mevlana) in the evening.

Erdogan praised Rumi:

If we have a homeland and a flag today, and if we live in an independent country, all fraternally, this is thanks to believers like Mevlana, Ahmed Yesevi [Rumi], as well as our generals such as Saladin (of Ayyub dynasty) and Alparslan (of Seljuk dynasty), Erdogan said.

Rumi is crucial for Erdogans dream of deity. Then we have countless statements made by Erdogan where he hones in on Jerusalem. And ifChrist said that Jerusalem is the apple of My Eye, that is Christs eye, Erdogan said:Jerusalem is the apple of every Muslims eye.

He is healing the fatal wound of an empire that ruled and was the greatest menace (a beast is a menace to Gods people) to the Church (Revelation 13). Todaybillboards can be seen all around Istanbul. The posters read: Yeniden Dirilis, Yeniden Yukselis, meaning, Resurrection Again, Rising Again.The fatal wound, or demise of the Ottoman Empire happened in 1923 and Erdogan intends for hisresurrection of the Ottoman Empireto be done by 2023:

Therefore it is no coincidence to observe that some of the followers of Erdoan believe he is a caliph who seeks to resurrect the Islamic Caliphate and the Ottoman Empire. It is no coincidence that Erdoans target of The Great Turkey is intended to be completed in 2023

Erdogan, the ruler of Turkey, this flag of the red dragon with the two horns of the crescent, issued a flood (Revelation 12) into Europe where the heart of Christendom was in scenes that were unprecedented in history where Germany and the E.U came to Erdogan begging to stop thisflood. It will be a matter of time when the woman who gave birth to the man child (Christ) stomps the crescent under her feet (Revelation 11-12).

Erdogan as he causes havoc in Syriais getting bad news from the north (Russia, Daniel 11:44) and desires to also rule Iraq (ancient Babylon) setting up encampments there. He is getting ready to qualify as King of Babylon (Isaiah 14:4, a title given to Antichrist).

Qaradawi, the spiritual head of the Sunni Muslim world, declared Erdogan speaking of a sign of the end of the world when he declared that the angelic host will soon descend on earth after this establishment of the coming Caliphate in Turkey. From a Christian perspective this is the casting of the fallen angels which Daniel the prophet spoke about the minions of the Luminous One, Lucifer are finally cast out and the Antichrist of Isaiah 14 to soon be revealed. Qaradawi speaks ofconfederacy sparked by Turkey of different Muslim states mentioned in severalmajor Scripture passages (Dan 2:31-35, 40-45; 7:7-8, 19-24; Rev 13:1-2; 17:3, 7, 12-16, Ezekiel 30 the league and the entire context ofEzekiel 28-31).

As if all this is not enough, Qaradawi even gives an example:

There are big countries such as China, which has a population of about 1.5 billion, according to the statistics, in a time when the number of Muslims in the world about 1.7 billion, and thus could meet in the form of the Union.

Erdogan does not honor the desire of women (Daniel 11:37), prohibiting them entry in the government and promoting the wearing of the hijab.

The Muslim scholarly powers hasalready asked the Muslim world to pledge allegiance to Erdoan.So in order to convey my two-decade persistent message, I brought forth other watchmenfrom the source itself in Turkey. Todays Zaman,a favorite of mine and a persecuted voicegives a similar perspective of what I have been trying to say for a while now, but hearing it, from the horses mouth if you will, can bring in credibility to my trumpet sound of this coming flood of nations, and with all these probabilities, from here, from my ark, it will start slowly, then it will thunder as my voice thunders to the hills, to the valleys and to the nations. Is anyone listening?

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Erdogan Has Just Been Declared The Leader Of The Entire ...

Turkeys neo-sultan managed to swing the April 16 constitutional referendum in his favor, but its a precarious, illegitimate win and he knows it. The question now is how President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will handle his biggest domestic threat, a woman no less, who has refused to join his political harem, drawing support or, at the very least, respect from unlikely quarters.

Meral Aksener, a 60-year-old seasoned politician and former Turkish interior minister, fired up the campaign trail in the lead-up to the April 16 constitutional referendum. Her rallies calling on Turks to reject Erdogans proposed constitutional amendments drew thousands of worshipful supporters who, like her, defied threats and intimidation to make their voices heard. Braving mid-speech power cuts, using battery-powered megaphones, disobeying demonstration bans by local ruling party officials, powering through thugs from her own erstwhile ultranationalist party mucking about her rallies, Aksener thundered on like a tank, as one of her female supporters at a rally put it.

She has been dubbed Asena, the she-wolf of Turkish mythology who gave birth to 10 half-human, half-wolf males. When accused of the most heinous catch-all political sin in Turkey today belonging to exiled cleric and alleged coup plotter Fethullah Gulens movement Aksener brushes it off with the no-nonsense brusqueness of a Turkish grandmother.

Its worth combing through all these labels, plaudits, and allegations, since Aksener is a complex character whose political roots mirror the multilayered diversity of contemporary Turkish politics and that, in essence, is what makes her a potent threat to Erdogan.

She is a grandmother, a nationalist some would say ultranationalist and a political warrior. She is not a Gulenist or a member of FETO (Fethullah Gulen Terrorist Organization) as the Turkish government loves to call any of its detractors if it cant plausibly accuse them of being Kurdish terrorists. She is not pro-Kurdish, of course; as a fervent nationalist, she has no love for Kurds who reject the wisdom of crushing their identity to become model Turks. The antipathy is mutual. Shes not an Islamist. But she is a self-declared pious Muslim, and her links to one of the forebears of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) honchos plus her resistance to the military meddling in politics in the 1990s lends her serious cred among the Islamist set.

As for that florid comparison to the she-wolf Asena, it does have some lupine consistency: Aksener leads a breakaway faction of the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) whose youth wing, the Grey Wolves, has a decades-long tradition of fascist violence.

Over the past few months, one of the more disturbing signs on the referendum campaign trail was the frequent display of the Grey Wolves gesture at AKP rallies supporting the Yes vote. A hand sign representing a wolf head made by holding up the index and little fingers while touching the thumb to the middle two digits, the Grey Wolves sign is seen as a Turkish equivalent of the Nazi salute. Under current MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, the party has been reformed, though the wolverine sign remains commonplace.

But it remains a disquieting display and a disturbing reminder of the unlikely alliances Erdogan has had to forge to get those sweeping presidential powers he has been seeking for so long.

Erdogans constitutional referendum train took to the rails in January when the president, riding a patriotic wave after the July 2016 coup attempt, managed to get parliamentary approval for a raft of 18 article amendments swapping Turkeys parliamentary system for a presidential one. He secured a parliamentary majority for the measure by the skin of his teeth, only after he secured MHP support. Bahceli, the raspy-voiced leader of the MHP, was an unlikely convert to Erdogans executive presidency gospel: The aging ultranationalist had long dismissed it as a system with no balances, no checks, and no brakes and a sultanate with no throne.

But in the end, there were no brakes on Bahcelis political machinations. Erdogan had helped Bahceli stave off a party leadership challenge by Aksener. The AKP strongman managed that by getting one of the countrys ever-pliant courts to rule against Akseners leadership bid. A former MHP senior official told the Economist that his former boss may have been offered a cabinet post after the 2019 elections. Deals were done, favors had to be returned; its the usual palace intrigue of Turkish politics today.

Aksener ferociously opposed Erdogans bid to scrap the system Turkeys founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, enshrined nearly a century ago. She was one of the most effective No campaigners in the lead-up to the April 16 vote, and shes still keeping up the fight. Her Twitter posts after Sundays vote reassured supporters that she is contesting the referendum results while calling on them to take to the streets.

In a strange way, the latest twist in the Turkish presidents unbridled power grab has been good for Aksener, and therein lies the biggest chink in Erdogans political armor. It comes not from the liberal, secular left that part of the political spectrum has been effectively crushed by Erdogans crackdowns on the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) and the main secular opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP) but from the nationalist right. This aspect tends to get overlooked in the international press, which limits itself to viewing Turkey primarily in a binary bind between conservative Islamists on one side and secular elites on the other the trite, old Black Turks versus White Turks dichotomy.

But theres more to Turkey today than meets the eye.

Akseners meteoric rise and the way she has managed to worm her way into the mainstream from the fascist, ultranationalist fringe is spectacular indeed.

Gender, for once, has been her biggest asset; the fact that she has managed to stick it to the boys in the macho world of Turkish conservative politics has earned her the love of some and the grudging respect of many others.

And nowhere is this girl-power play more evident than in her grasp of the symbolism of the hand gesture.

A good-looking woman with stylishly cropped hair set off by de rigueur pearl drop earrings, Aksener favors the sort of pantsuit ensembles made famous by fellow power granny Hillary Clinton. In the old days, especially during her high-profile breakup with the MHP, she was wont to flash the Grey Wolves sign at mass rallies. But over the past few months, that has given way to holding up her palm adorned with a henna imprint of the Turkish flag. During a TV interview, she explained that some of her young grassroots volunteers came up with the idea. By all accounts, it worked. With the post-coup press clampdowns ensuring that Turkish media barely covered the No campaign, Akseners henna flag went viral on social media.

Her former boss, the aging Bahceli, who has been facing the heat from his nationalist base for his tryst with the political devil, publicly disparaged her henna sign. Big mistake. Social media sites such as Twitter and Instagram exploded with all sorts of people elderly veiled women, young soldiers, grizzled granddads beaming with a henna flag on their palms. The hashtag #KinaliEllerHayirDiyor or Hennaed Hands Say No (to a constitutional change) trended for days. (Across swaths of Western and South Asia, henna is traditionally used as a feminine adornment and is especially important during marriage ceremonies when it signifies new beginnings.) In the Anatolian heartland, young soldiers going off to war also hennaed their palms in a display of warrior devotion. On International Womens Day, March 8, some of the womens rights advocates marching down Istanbuls iconic Istiklal Street flashed flag-hennaed palms. One of them told Al-Monitor, We will send henna powder to the leaders. They need it to remember the ordinary people will always find ways of peaceful resistance.

Resist she has, in a spectacular way. At a campaign rally in the northwestern Turkish town of Tekirdag, she blasted an AKP smear campaign labeling her a Gulenist. They should look to their right, they will see many Gulenist friends and relatives, she said. They should look to their left, they will also see many Gulenist friends and relatives. And then they should look in the mirror to see the real Gulenists. The crowd roared. Erdogans falling out with Gulen, his former Islamist ally who helped bring him to power, has seen an estimated 130,000 people suspended and sacked from public sector jobs, which are being filled by hastily hired, often unqualified candidates, many of them from other Islamist groups. The nationalists are concerned about the economic downturn, and Aksener has hammered home her message that the neo-sultan is fiddling in his Ottoman castle, picking fights with EU allies while the Turkish economy burns.

Her rejection of Erdogans power grab tapped into the deep disapproval among MHP supporters for a constitutional amendment. According to one Turkish pollster, only 35 percent of MHP voters cast a Yes ballot in Sundays poll. That razor-thin Yes win is not just the secular leftist and Kurdish rejection of the Turkish president; it also reflects the nationalists disenchantment with their own leaders and with Erdogan, despite his attempts to woo the nationalist base. In recent years, the MHP has seen its popularity drop in the polls, with the party losing 39 parliamentary seats (from 80) between the June and November 2015 elections.

Bahcelis cronies may still support their party chief. But the party rank and file would like to see a new, dynamic leader if only Erdogan, the consummate political player, would let that happen. But Erdogan will not, of course, not if he can help it, because the Iron Lady of Turkish politics is his biggest political rival on the horizon.

Despite the referendum loss, Aksener is well-placed to make inroads into Erdogans Islamist base. A pious Muslim who frequently mentions that she prays five times a day, she was interior minister in the coalition government led by Islamist granddaddy Necmettin Erbakan until the military dismissed her as a result of what is called the February 1997 postmodern coup. Her resistance to the military made her a national figure, earning her the respect of many pro-democracy Turks from different political backgrounds. The events of February 1997 are still alive in the Turkish collective memory, and Aksener is politician enough to grab every opportunity to remind audiences particularly Islamists who felt persecuted by the military in the 1990s of her pro-democracy creds.

She has also touted a softer version of Turkish nationalism than the old MHP boys, and that could lend her some tactical if not necessarily ideological appeal among Turkeys battered leftist-secularists desperate for any political figure who can defeat Erdogan. Since the April 16 referendum, the Ankara rumor mill has been on overdrive about the Turkish Iron Ladys plans to form a new political party. She is the ideal candidate to unite conservative voters, secular voters, and a large portion of the nationalist vote, notes Paris-based Turkish journalist Emre Demir. There are persistent rumors that she will create a new center-right party, which can bring together the old AKP figures that Erdogan has sidelined, a number of center-right figures, as well as nationalist figures ejected by Bahceli. If that happens, it could be the only party that can threaten Erdogans one-party rule.

Aksener herself says very little and just enough to keep the political suspense at boiler pitch. They all talk about Mr. Erdogan. What if I am the countrys next president? she famously asked a BBC reporter. Her supporters at rallies are known to chant Prime Minister Meral, a cry that must surely gall Erdogan ahead of the October 2019 general elections.

The interesting thing now is how Erdogan will respond to the threat posed by this political she-wolf who has refused to be co-opted or silenced. He could treat her like he did his erstwhile biggest rival, the charismatic Kurdish HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas: toss her in jail. But it wont be as easy to imprison a popular nationalist as it is to throw a Kurdish politician behind bars in Turkey. Her hardcore supporters can unleash rowdy havoc on the streets, and they are just the sort of shock troops Erdogan himself uses when he needs a thug act or two. And then, dont forget Erdogan is an Islamist. If he has to put a devout Turkish Muslim granny as opposed to a godless Kurdish woman behind bars, it wont sit well with his religious base. The sultan has swung many impossible political flips in the past, but this gladiator fight, whichever way it goes, will be a treat to witness.

Photo credit:ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images

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Can the 'She-Wolf' Who Rejected the Harem Take On Sultan Erdogan? - Foreign Policy (blog)

A wealthy Turkish-Iranian gold trader facing U.S. charges that he helped Iran evade U.S. sanctions for sponsoring terrorism has an unlikely ally: Rudy Giuliani.

Its a surprising role for Giuliani, who was dubbed "Americas Mayor" for his uncompromising response to the 2001 terrorist attacks as mayor of New York. An early supporter of President Donald Trump, Giuliani has helped him search for a legal way to ban Muslim immigrants and served as an informal adviser, tasked with building private sector partnerships on cyber-security.

Now, Giuliani has joined a star-studded roster of lawyers representing Reza Zarrab, who is accused of using his network of companies to launder hundreds of millions of dollars through the U.S. financial system to aid the mullahs in Tehran. In a court filing last week, Giuliani said hes met with senior officials in the U.S. and Turkey, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in an effort to broker a deal that might benefit Zarrab and bolster U.S. national-security interests.

At a hearing Monday, U.S. District Judge Richard Berman asked lawyers for updated information about what their firms have been doing on behalf of the Turkish government in the U.S.

Michael Lockard, a government prosecutor, stressed the gravity of the charges, saying Giuliani and Mukasey had soft-pedaled the seriousness of the case in court filings. Lockard said the evidence would show Zarrab personally offered his services to circumvent sanctions to Irans then-president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and paid tens of millions of dollars to high-level banking officials to help carry out the scheme.

"What is charged in this case is a serious national-security offense," Lockard said.

Zarrabs unorthodox defense strategy is drawing scrutiny and comparisons to other cases, where the U.S. took a hard line on companies accused of violating sanctions or moving Irans money. David Kelley, a former U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said prosecutors cherish their independence, removed from politics and foreign-policy considerations, and blanch at any suggestion that a criminal case might be compromised.

"Theyre looking to resolve a criminal case through political means," he said of Giuliani and another Zarrab lawyer, former U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey. Their actionsrun the risk of politicizing the Justice Department, and every time that happens in one form or another, there are serious consequences and fallout from it, added Kelley, whos not involved in the case.

Click here for more on the Zarrab case

Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan until he was fired last month, appeared to be voicing the same worry in a tweet last week: "One just hopes that the rule of law, and its independent enforcement, still matters in the United States and at the Department of Justice." Prosecutors on the case have also demanded to know what Giuliani is up to.

The case has roiled diplomatic relations with Turkey, where Erdogan assailed Bharara for bringing the charges against Zarrab, his close associate. Once a staunch U.S. ally, Turkey has drifted away from the West as Erdogan has grown more autocratic and friendly toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump was one of the few world leaders to congratulate Erdogan on his recent win of a referendum giving sweeping powers to the president.

In their court filing, Giuliani andMukasey said senior officials in the U.S. and Turkey remain receptive to a deal that could promote the security of the U.S. They said the willingness of the U.S. to negotiate is not surprising because the alleged scheme involved consumer goods, not nuclear technology or other contraband, and that they had briefed both Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Bharara in general terms before their trip to Turkey in February.

It remains to be seen whether the Justice Department will agree to a deal for Zarrab, whos being held in a Manhattan lockup. Erdogans talks with Vice President Joe Biden in September failed to win the traders freedom. Richard Holwell, a former federal judge in New York, said its not unusual for lawyers for influential defendants to seek a political resolution to a case, but its rare for such maneuvering to succeed because the Justice Department resists the politicization of law enforcement.

"There are sometimes lawyers in the courtroom talking to the judge and prosecutors, and then there is a separate line of communication at the diplomatic level," said Holwell. "The idea that Messrs. Giuliani and Mukasey would pay a visit to Erdogan doesnt surprise me. The only thing that surprises me is whether Zarrab is that valuable a piece in the game that Erdogan would be interested in communicating with those in the U.S."

Yet the lawyers politicking has clearly raised concerns for Judge Berman.

In a sense, the judges raising this conflict-of-interest question is a back door way into getting more information from Zarrabs team, said Peter Henning, a law professor at Wayne State University in Detroit. "The judge is flying blind on whats going on here.

Emanuele Ottolenghi of the Foundation forDefense of Democracies,a Washington-based think tank that has advised lawmakers writing Iran sanctions legislation, said its understandable why the Turkish government would press for a deal.

"The Zarrab case is going to be a treasure trove for people who study sanctionsevasion," said Ottolenghi. "We will learn a lot about Zarrab, but also weregoing to learn about how complicit Turkey was as a whole in allowing Iran toevade sanctions. The potential embarrassment and fallout in this case is so vastthat it is hard to put a tag on it."

Zarrab, who denies wrongdoing, is accused of using his multibillion-dollar network of companies in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates to induce U.S. banks to launder money through transactions that violated international sanctions against Iran. He was arrested in Miami after arriving in the U.S. for a family trip.

Prosecutors also say Zarrab played an active role helping to finance an Iranian airline, Mahan Air. The airline is a material supporter of the Iranian National Guards Quds Force, a sponsor of terrorism, the U.S. says. Treasury officials said Mahan Air has covertly flown personnel on planes without including them on passenger manifests, including in and out of Syria and Iraq, and ferried weapons for Quds and Hezbollah.

Starting in 2015, prosecutors say Zarrab began processing transactions on behalf of a Dubai-based company called Ascot General Trading that served as a front for Mahan to avoid blockades in the financial system. Over the next month, prosecutors say he handled millions of dollars in transactions for the company, some of which passed through New York banks.

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In a related case, prosecutors last month charged Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a senior manager at Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS, a large state-owned bank, with conspiring with Zarrab. Prosecutors cited recorded conversations between Atilla and Zarrab in 2013 which suggested that the two were intentionally trying to disguise transactions involving a Dubai company in such a way that Western banks would approve funding. Atilla denies wrongdoing.

The case may have grown out of similar prosecution in Turkey in 2013 that connected Zarrabs transactions with Iran to payments to senior government officials in Ankara. In 2014, Erdogan dismissed investigators involved in the case, and charges against Zarrab and members of Erdogans government were eventually dismissed.

The case is U.S. v. Reza Zarrab, 15-cr-867, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

Read more here:
Giuliani's Talk With Erdogan Adds Mystery to U.S. Sanctions Case ... - Bloomberg

Originally posted in The Progressive, April 20, 2017

Declaring victory in the recent plebiscite granting him extraordinary powers, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan consolidated his authoritarian rule. A new constitutional amendment abolishes the countrys parliamentary system and gives the once-weak executive almost unlimited authority. It passed in the midst of a state of emergency imposed after last years coup attempt.

Since the failed coup, Erdogan has jailed 45,000 political opponents, including the head of the countrys third largest party and other parliamentarians. He has fired 130,000 government workers and thousands of teachers and journalists. One hundred seventy-six media outlets have been shut down. The censorship and intimidation of opponents made a free and fair referendum virtually impossible. European Union monitors, rather understatedly, noted that the vote took place on an unlevel playing field and the two sides of the campaign did not have equal opportunities.

Initially, it appeared that Erdogans referendum was headed toward defeat. A last-minute decision by Turkeys electoral board to accept ballots as valid without official stamps raised concerns of widespread ballot stuffing; EU monitors noted how these late changes in counting procedures removed an important safeguard to a credible vote tally.

In response, Erdogan claimed those questioning the results were engaging in a Crusader mentality and that they should know their place.

President Trump was virtually alone among world leaders in congratulating Erdogan on his victory. Along with recent decisions to curtail President Obamas limited restrictions on arms transfers to Bahrain, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern dictatorships, Trump is signaling to the region that the United States is no longer even pretending to support democracy.

Indeed, the United States has for decades provided unconditional support for Turkish authoritarianism, including the three times during past sixty years in which the Turkish military seized power and engaged in gross and systematic human rights abuses.

Erdogans appeal is based on his ability, like the Republicans, to convince millions of poor and working-class voters to vote against their class interests with appeals to nationalism, traditional religious values, fear of terrorism, and attacks on liberal secular urban elites. Indeed, the electoral map from the referendum looks remarkably similar to the map of the United States after the 2016 presidential election, with the rural areas voting yes while the urban areas and regions with large minority populations voted no.

Turkeys society is badly divided, with at least half the population opposed to the slide into authoritarianism under Erdogan. This opposition will likely get stronger.

The once-booming economy has slowed, as the United States and other Western countries have tightened credit. One out of every four young Turks are unemployed. In addition, tourism, a major contributor to the economy, has declined as Erdogans policies have simultaneously alienated Russians, Iranians, and Westerners.

Erdogan has reignited the war against the countrys Kurdish minority, jailing not just suspected militants, but nonviolent Kurdish leaders, including seventy mayors. His support for hard-line Islamist groups fighting the Syrian regimelike the U.S. support for Afghan mujahedeen fighting the Soviets during the 1980shas begun to backfire as Turkey has become a target of terrorist attacks from Salafist extremists.

As a result, it is extremely likely that Turkey will find itself riven with growing popular opposition to what is widely seen as an illegitimate autocratic government led by a dangerous and unpredictable demagogue. If the United States continues its policy of supporting its NATO ally despite the growing repression, it will end up alienating yet another group of Muslim people suffering under a U.S.-backed dictatorship.

Given the burgeoning Turkish civil society movement, along with Islamist extremists and Kurdish separatists emboldened by these developments, Turkey is likely headed for years of domestic turmoil.

The big question is whether the United States will eventually ally with the tens of millions of Turks resisting authoritarianism or if, once again, the United States will find itself on the wrong side of history.

Originally posted here:
Erdogan Can Celebrate the Turkish ReferendumFor Now - Huffington Post

Politics is proving to be a boon for Turkeys banks that may continue for months to come.

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First-quarter profit at Turkeys six largest banks, which will start reporting this week, is expected to jump by an average of 46 percent from a year earlier, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Lenders are benefiting from a raft of incentives brought in by President Recep Tayyip Erdogans administration that has led to a surge in lending, boosting the revenue the companies make from charging interest.

After this months narrow referendum victory, Erdogan is shifting his attention to general and presidential elections scheduled for November 2019 by trying to reignite an economy that has flagged in the wake of last Julys failed coup. Lenders have been among the biggest benefactors with tax breaks,looser banking regulations and a state-backed fund to encourage lending to businesses.

The government will continue measures to stimulate growth through banks as it pays back quicker than incentives given to industrial companies, said Deutsche Bank analyst Kazim Andac. Lira-denominated business loans, mainly through the Credit Guarantee Fund, were one of the major drivers of top-line strength in the first quarter.

Cagdas Dogan, a banking analyst at BGC Partners Inc. in Istanbul, revised higher his first-quarter profit estimates,mainly because of stronger-than-expected growth in lira-denominated loans, better returns from investments in inflation-linked bonds and risk-related costs that were lower than his initial estimates.

Our revised first-quarter earnings are around 10 percent higher than our original forecasts done after 2016 results, he said. Dogan expects an average increaseof 47 percent in net income for the six biggest publicly-traded lenders in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period.

The nations credit boom will add as much as 1.5 percentage points to gross domestic product growth this year, Erdogans adviser Cemil Ertem said on Thursday. He criticized the International Monetary Funds 2017 growth estimate of 2.5 percent, predicting GDP will expand as much as 4.5 percent. He said that the Credit Guarantee Fund will be a catalyst for growth in 2018.

Were still on an election path, therefore the government will continue with incentives through 2018 and until the 2019 elections, which will be bank-positive, said Bulent Sengonul, a banking analyst at Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS in Istanbul.

The push to extend lending, sometimes at below market rates, doesnt come without risks. Non-performing loans will increase to 5 percent of total credit this year, from 3.3 percent, S&P Global Ratings said in report in February.

Still, banks will remain resilient should the economy weaken because their adequate asset quality, sufficient earnings, and good capitalization provide enough of a buffer to absorb any potential moderate volatility without damaging their financial profiles unduly, S&P said.

Annual loan growth quickened to 21.2 percent at the end of March, matching levels achieved in January that marked the quickest pace in 14 months, according to the banking regulator, known as the BDDK.

Banks have extended 137.3 billion liras ($37.7 billion) of loans to 186,131 businesses under theCredit Guarantee Fund program as of April 20, the Ankara-based fund said in an emailed response to questions. The government previously said that fund, known as KGF, will be able to back as much as 250 billion liras of loans.

Akbank TAS will be first to report earnings on April 25, followed by Garanti Bankasi AS a day later, and Yapi Kredi Bankasi AS on April 27. The countrys remaining lenders are expected to announce earnings by the end of the second week of May.

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Erdogan-Inspired Incentives Seen Boosting Turkish Bank Profits ... - Bloomberg