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Originally posted in The Progressive, April 20, 2017

Declaring victory in the recent plebiscite granting him extraordinary powers, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan consolidated his authoritarian rule. A new constitutional amendment abolishes the countrys parliamentary system and gives the once-weak executive almost unlimited authority. It passed in the midst of a state of emergency imposed after last years coup attempt.

Since the failed coup, Erdogan has jailed 45,000 political opponents, including the head of the countrys third largest party and other parliamentarians. He has fired 130,000 government workers and thousands of teachers and journalists. One hundred seventy-six media outlets have been shut down. The censorship and intimidation of opponents made a free and fair referendum virtually impossible. European Union monitors, rather understatedly, noted that the vote took place on an unlevel playing field and the two sides of the campaign did not have equal opportunities.

Initially, it appeared that Erdogans referendum was headed toward defeat. A last-minute decision by Turkeys electoral board to accept ballots as valid without official stamps raised concerns of widespread ballot stuffing; EU monitors noted how these late changes in counting procedures removed an important safeguard to a credible vote tally.

In response, Erdogan claimed those questioning the results were engaging in a Crusader mentality and that they should know their place.

President Trump was virtually alone among world leaders in congratulating Erdogan on his victory. Along with recent decisions to curtail President Obamas limited restrictions on arms transfers to Bahrain, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern dictatorships, Trump is signaling to the region that the United States is no longer even pretending to support democracy.

Indeed, the United States has for decades provided unconditional support for Turkish authoritarianism, including the three times during past sixty years in which the Turkish military seized power and engaged in gross and systematic human rights abuses.

Erdogans appeal is based on his ability, like the Republicans, to convince millions of poor and working-class voters to vote against their class interests with appeals to nationalism, traditional religious values, fear of terrorism, and attacks on liberal secular urban elites. Indeed, the electoral map from the referendum looks remarkably similar to the map of the United States after the 2016 presidential election, with the rural areas voting yes while the urban areas and regions with large minority populations voted no.

Turkeys society is badly divided, with at least half the population opposed to the slide into authoritarianism under Erdogan. This opposition will likely get stronger.

The once-booming economy has slowed, as the United States and other Western countries have tightened credit. One out of every four young Turks are unemployed. In addition, tourism, a major contributor to the economy, has declined as Erdogans policies have simultaneously alienated Russians, Iranians, and Westerners.

Erdogan has reignited the war against the countrys Kurdish minority, jailing not just suspected militants, but nonviolent Kurdish leaders, including seventy mayors. His support for hard-line Islamist groups fighting the Syrian regimelike the U.S. support for Afghan mujahedeen fighting the Soviets during the 1980shas begun to backfire as Turkey has become a target of terrorist attacks from Salafist extremists.

As a result, it is extremely likely that Turkey will find itself riven with growing popular opposition to what is widely seen as an illegitimate autocratic government led by a dangerous and unpredictable demagogue. If the United States continues its policy of supporting its NATO ally despite the growing repression, it will end up alienating yet another group of Muslim people suffering under a U.S.-backed dictatorship.

Given the burgeoning Turkish civil society movement, along with Islamist extremists and Kurdish separatists emboldened by these developments, Turkey is likely headed for years of domestic turmoil.

The big question is whether the United States will eventually ally with the tens of millions of Turks resisting authoritarianism or if, once again, the United States will find itself on the wrong side of history.

Originally posted here:
Erdogan Can Celebrate the Turkish ReferendumFor Now - Huffington Post

Politics is proving to be a boon for Turkeys banks that may continue for months to come.

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First-quarter profit at Turkeys six largest banks, which will start reporting this week, is expected to jump by an average of 46 percent from a year earlier, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Lenders are benefiting from a raft of incentives brought in by President Recep Tayyip Erdogans administration that has led to a surge in lending, boosting the revenue the companies make from charging interest.

After this months narrow referendum victory, Erdogan is shifting his attention to general and presidential elections scheduled for November 2019 by trying to reignite an economy that has flagged in the wake of last Julys failed coup. Lenders have been among the biggest benefactors with tax breaks,looser banking regulations and a state-backed fund to encourage lending to businesses.

The government will continue measures to stimulate growth through banks as it pays back quicker than incentives given to industrial companies, said Deutsche Bank analyst Kazim Andac. Lira-denominated business loans, mainly through the Credit Guarantee Fund, were one of the major drivers of top-line strength in the first quarter.

Cagdas Dogan, a banking analyst at BGC Partners Inc. in Istanbul, revised higher his first-quarter profit estimates,mainly because of stronger-than-expected growth in lira-denominated loans, better returns from investments in inflation-linked bonds and risk-related costs that were lower than his initial estimates.

Our revised first-quarter earnings are around 10 percent higher than our original forecasts done after 2016 results, he said. Dogan expects an average increaseof 47 percent in net income for the six biggest publicly-traded lenders in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period.

The nations credit boom will add as much as 1.5 percentage points to gross domestic product growth this year, Erdogans adviser Cemil Ertem said on Thursday. He criticized the International Monetary Funds 2017 growth estimate of 2.5 percent, predicting GDP will expand as much as 4.5 percent. He said that the Credit Guarantee Fund will be a catalyst for growth in 2018.

Were still on an election path, therefore the government will continue with incentives through 2018 and until the 2019 elections, which will be bank-positive, said Bulent Sengonul, a banking analyst at Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS in Istanbul.

The push to extend lending, sometimes at below market rates, doesnt come without risks. Non-performing loans will increase to 5 percent of total credit this year, from 3.3 percent, S&P Global Ratings said in report in February.

Still, banks will remain resilient should the economy weaken because their adequate asset quality, sufficient earnings, and good capitalization provide enough of a buffer to absorb any potential moderate volatility without damaging their financial profiles unduly, S&P said.

Annual loan growth quickened to 21.2 percent at the end of March, matching levels achieved in January that marked the quickest pace in 14 months, according to the banking regulator, known as the BDDK.

Banks have extended 137.3 billion liras ($37.7 billion) of loans to 186,131 businesses under theCredit Guarantee Fund program as of April 20, the Ankara-based fund said in an emailed response to questions. The government previously said that fund, known as KGF, will be able to back as much as 250 billion liras of loans.

Akbank TAS will be first to report earnings on April 25, followed by Garanti Bankasi AS a day later, and Yapi Kredi Bankasi AS on April 27. The countrys remaining lenders are expected to announce earnings by the end of the second week of May.

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Erdogan-Inspired Incentives Seen Boosting Turkish Bank Profits ... - Bloomberg

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan is massively expanding his own powers.

If it seems strange that Donald Trump telephoned an authoritarian to congratulate him on becoming more of an authoritarian, thats partly because we dont expect to see such bold displays of international solidarity among these mens ideological foes. Certainly their foes would not call themselves foes. After all, good liberals arent proud liberals.

Of course you could argue that it was just a business call, Trumps overture lastweek to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan. Youd be correct in pointing out that the family shop hawks rather a lot of goods in Turkey, including a couple of shiny towers. And its not like he hasnt tried this stunt before; one of Trumps first acts as president-elect was to chat with the president of Argentina on the phone, reportedly about whether Buenos Aires could please stop giving him such a hard time about building permits.

But never mind all that. If the most important leadership skill is knowing how to delegate, the United States can at least trust its leader to know he can always send his daughter off to play diplomat whenever it becomes imperative to score, say, a trademark in China and Japan.

So its not business. Not just business, anyway. Its personal. Trump called Erdogan because populist authoritarian strongmen tend to understand that its in their interests to promote their ideological friends.

Promoting authoritarianism can be a dry and discrete exercise in policy implementation. It may take the form of a regimes favourite fascist-leaning candidate abroad benefiting from the provision of support services support services that may be rendered by Kremlin-bankrolled hackers and bag men, for example.

But its often overt. Like most people, authoritarians may seek the company of those with whom they have things in common. This goes some way toward explaining Silvio Berlusconis bizarre friendship with Moammar Gaddafi. (Although, in addition to having a mutual aversion to basic democratic principles, the former prime minister and chief media mogul of Italy and the late brotherly leader and reigning nut-job of Libya also enjoyed a taste for underaged girls. Theirs was a relationship based on many shared interests.)

Even if strongmen dont genuinely like or respect each other, though, it may benefit them to pretend that they do. Like any idea, ideology or form of government, people probably wont buy authoritarianism unless its sold to them. Putin, Erdogan and Trump have made sure that theyre singing the same terrifying and mindnumbingly stupid jingle: Were being brought down by the (insert preferred scapegoat from list that includes immigrants, liberal ninnies and continental Europeans here).

The leaders of liberal democracies need to find a sales pitch that is at least this compelling. Then they have to find the courage to pitch it.

It seems to me that you can build a pretty convincing case around liberal convictions. It worked for some revolutionaries a long time ago, anyways, and then for some street demonstrators. Granted, they cant make their case in all the same ways that authoritarians can, such as congratulating a leader on particular referendum results; that would violate the democratic norms that authoritarians are attacking. But I suspect its mostly courage thats lacking.

Liberals may be, I think, the victim of their own mistaken interpretation of tolerance. Liberals value a respect for difference. This is admirable. But some may risk stereotyping the very societies they claim to tolerate, presuming these societies to be somehow inherently hostile to the most foundational principles of democracy and human rights, and to be lacking any internal advocates for them.

This is not admirable. Not only is this a tolerance nearly as ignorant as the racism and xenophobia it means to counter, but the one type of obtuseness accidentally affirms the other.

The people of Turkey and Russia are no less deserving of human rights and civil liberties than are the people of the United States; the people of the United States, no less susceptible to the call of authoritarianism. To counter this call, perhaps liberal democrats need to make more calls of their own.

ShannonGormleyisanOttawa Citizen global affairs columnist and freelance journalist.

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Gormley: Brutes of a feather flock together - Ottawa Citizen

ANKARA

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday released a statement marking the 1915 events, expressing his condolences to the grandchildren of Ottoman Armenians, who passed away at that time.

Erdogans message was read during a religious ceremony at the Armenian Patriarchate in Istanbul.

"This year, I once again pay our respects to the Ottoman Armenians who lost their lives under the harsh conditions of the First World War and convey my condolences to their descendants," the president said.

Turkey dismisses allegations of genocide but acknowledges there were casualties on both sides during the events in World War I.

Erdogan said Turks and Armenians shared a common history and culture "as two ancient nations of this region".

"It is our common objective for these two peoples, who have shared the grief and happiness of centuries, to heal the wounds of the past and strengthen people-to-people ties," he said.

Noting the "many steps" taken in this direction in the past 14 years, and the "historic reforms" launched, Erdogan said Turkey was determined to advance efforts and preserve the memory of the Ottoman Armenians and Armenian cultural heritage in the future.

He emphasized that the peace, security and happiness of the Armenian community were "of special importance" to Turkey.

"We have no tolerance for the alienation and exclusion of our Armenian citizens nor for a single Armenian citizen to feel second-class," he stressed.

Erdogan also expressed his hopes for a "speedy" conclusion of the election of the Armenian patriarch of Turkey.

According to Turkey's viewpoint, the deaths of Armenians in eastern Anatolia in 1915 occurred after some sided with invading Russians and revolted against Ottoman forces. A subsequent relocation of Armenians resulted in numerous casualties.

Turkey describes the 1915 events as a tragedy for both sides.

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Erdogan pays respects to Armenian dead from WWI - Anadolu Agency

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, April 17, 2017. (photo byREUTERS/Umit Bektas)

Author:Week in Review Posted April 23, 2017

Erdogans high hopes for Trump

Amberin Zaman reports that US President Donald Trumps congratulatory call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the April 16 referendum to give Turkey's presidency greater powers may have only served to heighten differences over US support for the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG).

The US State Department had been hesitant to congratulate Erdogan on the referendum, according to Zaman, based upon reporting from an observer group from the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Council of Europe. The group's statementsaid fundamental freedoms essential to a genuinely democratic process were curtailed. The dismissal or detention of thousands of citizens negatively affected the political environment. The head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe said, The referendum did not live up to Council of Europe standards. The legal framework was inadequate for the holding of a genuinely democratic process.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry slammed the OSCE report as politically motivated and accusatory and reflecting a biased and prejudiced approach.

Zaman writes, The prevailing consensus within the administration was that knowing how badly Erdogan wanted Washingtons seal of approval, some concessions could be wrested in exchange, particularly over the bitter differences between Turkey and the United States in the US-led coalitions campaign in Syria. But such calculations came to naught when Trump placed the phone call without seeking the State Departments advice, thoughAl-Monitor learned from sources familiar with details of the exchange that [US Secretary of State Rex] Tillerson was in the room when the call took place.

Zaman adds, ATurkish official speaking to Al-Monitor on strict condition of anonymity denied speculation that Trumps business partners in Turkey had helped arrange the phone call. Rather, Erdogans office had sought the conversation with Trump prior to the referendum and it was agreed in advance that it would take place. The official described the conversation as very very good and confirmed that it was mostly focused on Syria. The official said Erdogan had repeated Turkeys concerns over the USalliance with the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) and had urged they be excluded from a planned offensive to liberate Raqqa.

In an interview on Al Jazeeratwo days after the call, Erdogan was optimistic about animprovement in US-Turkey relations under Trump, implying the United States would back off its support for the YPG.We previously had an agreement on the issue of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party], Erdogan said, according to his official website. There was also an agreement during Obamas tenure but Obama unfortunately deceived us over the PYD/YPG. But I dont believe the current administration will do the same. The PYD is the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party.

This column in February noted that Erdogans hopes for a US turnaround on the YPG may be misguided, given the position of US military leaders.Zaman observes that Erdogans hopes may again be misplaced.US Central Commandcommander Gen. Joseph Votel and other senior administration officials are said to be pushing Trump to sign an executive dispensation that would authorize the Pentagon to directly arm the YPG and its Arab affiliates who fight under the banner of the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), she writes. While Trump is believed to already be on board with this action, the White House delayed announcing that it was proceeding with theplan until after the Turkish referendum, reportedly because it didnt want Erdogan touse the issue to whip up anti-Americanism during thecampaign. It remains unclear whether the White House will now wait until Erdogans visit before signing. Many analysts say all the prevaricating points to the conflicting goals of defeating IS with the help of the Syrian Kurds without alienating Turkey,a key NATO ally.

Iran limits Iraq-Saudi rapprochement

Ibrahim al-Hatlani writes, Riyadh appears not to have high expectations about rapidly improving ties with Baghdad. A Saudi diplomatic source in Riyadh who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity said that the appointment of a new Saudi ambassador to Baghdad is the best that can be expected in the short run. Other issues, such as opening the border, investments and cancellation of debt, cannot be seriously looked at before the Iraqi government gains control over the sectarian militias and their arms and shows that it has the ability to circumscribe Iran's influence in the country.

Ali Mamouri has written on Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadis efforts to improve ties with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, andthis column noted in January that improved Iraqi-Saudi ties could provide a much-needed spark for an Iran-Saudi dialogue on regional issues.

Hatlani observes that the Saudi and Iraqi governments are aware that normal bilateral ties would serve both their interests beyond any advantage to placating the United States desire for better relations between its allies. Yet there is not much trust between the two countries. Riyadh, which has no military or political influence in Iraq, is not ready to deal with Baghdad in light of Iraq's sectarian issues and the potential of armed groupssmuggling arms to Shiites in Qatif or facilitating the movement of extremists from and into the kingdom to Iran's advantage. That said, Baghdad cannot provide Saudi Arabia the assurances it seeks at the expense of losing its Iranian ally.

Al-Bab returns to life

Mohammad al-Khatieb reports that al-Bab has come back to life after the defeat of the Islamic State by Turkish-backed armed groups, including the Free Syrian Army, in February.

The sounds of motorbikes, a frequently used means of transportation in the city center, are a constant as civil defense members removerubble from the roads, Khatieb writes. As the regime has been cutting off the Euphrates River flow to the city ever since it took control ofal-Khafsa station March 8, residents have been forced to rely on water tanks filled from wells. While many shops in city markets had reopened their doorsincluding wholesale stores, shops selling gas cylinders, pharmacies and bakeries activity was limitedin comparison with the usual commercial and industrial activity, considering that al-Bab is one of the most populous cities inAleppo province.

Turkey believesthat al-Bab can serve as a haven for displaced Syrians due to the large residential areas stretching from the city and the towns liberatedby Operation Euphrates Shield over an area of 30 square kilometers, Khatieb reports. In this regard, Turkeys Gaziantep Mayor Fatma Sahinsaid in a statement April 6 that she was optimistic that al-Bab would be cleaned up from IS, which, she added, would lead to a win-win situation.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/erdogan-trump-hopes-iran-tempers-iraqi-saudi-rapprochement.html

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Does Erdogan expect Trump to ditch Syrian Kurds? - Al-Monitor