Mediaboss Marketing

As Turks prepare to vote in a referendum that would greatly expand the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the advocates of the change are brimming with confidence while opponents say they dont know how to prevent the advent of one-man rule.

The package of 18 constitutional amendments up for a vote Sunday would replace parliamentary democracy with a presidential government that puts most of the levers of power in Erdogans hands. Lawmakers would have little influence on key decisions, and the judiciary would be even more subservient than it is currently.

And Erdogan, already in power for 15 years, would be able to run for two more five-year terms when his current term ends in 2019.

Eskisehir, an industrial city of 800,000, is located in central Anatolia, the heartland for Erdogans ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), but its controlled by the opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP). Theres been a spirited, yet civil, debate here, judging from the booths set up by yes and no backers in the city center, some next to each other.

But in a cafe near the university, the mood was somber this week as opponents of the changes explained why they were sitting around tables playing Rummikub, a Turkish board game, rather than campaigning door-to-door for their cause.

A lot has to do with the fact Erdogan scheduled the referendum during a state of emergency dating from last Julys abortive military coup that Erdogan blames on a Muslim cleric in U.S. exile.

Everyone is scared, said a student who asked to be identified only as Ismet, 23. If we went out on the streets, wed wind up in prison. He said he cant even post his views on Facebook, fearing the authorities would come down hard on his family.

But he also blamed the opposition organizers. Even among referendum opponents, Erdogan is seen as a real leader compared to Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the CHP leader.

We are talking to the yes people and trying to persuade them, said Yunus, 33, who also feared reprisal if he gave his full name. But he added that CHP leadership should be much more active, much more effective.

The two men and two young women, all medical students, agreed that Turkey is on the eve of a dictatorship, with no checks and balances on executive power. They said it could be like Germany in 1933, when Adolf Hitler rose to power, but they said they didnt know what they could do about it.

Utko Cakirozer, a former editor of the opposition daily Cumhuriyet, whos now one of six parliament members from Eskisehir, had gone to the In Heavy Demand coffee house to cheer on the no campaign. (Cakirozer was a Daniel Pearl fellow at the Los Angeles Times in 2008.)

There is a psychological problem, he said in an interview. People believe no matter whether they vote yes or no, that yes will win.

He said he tries to counter that resignation by saying that the government wont be able to steal the vote if observers and the public keep a close watch on the ballot boxes.

But theres nothing he can do about the wide sense of intimidation that followed the governments firing of more than 110,000 civil servants and the jailing of more than 50,000 for allegedly supporting the putsch.

The opponents also had no way to counter Erdogans severe clampdown on the news media, the arrests of journalists and the closing of dozens of news outlets following the coup attempt.

The no backers had no way to stop Erdogan from taking full advantage of the state apparatus as he campaigned for the amendments, invariably receiving more TV news coverage than Kilicdaroglu and other no campaigners.

Nor could they match Erdogans skill in capitalizing on the countrys woes, which include a revival of the insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers Party separatists in southeastern Turkey and the threat Islamic State extremists based in neighboring Syria.

Yet whatever complaints the CHP may have about the government using the state of emergency to block access to the media and the general public, it pales in comparison to Erdogans crackdown on the mainly Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party, whose parliamentary leadership have been detained on charges of supporting the Kurdish separatists, widely known as the PKK.

City and town officials belonging to the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party have been ousted from their positions and hundreds of its local leaders have been detained, the party said April 7. Rallies have been banned, the party cannot put up posters showing its leaders now in jail and it cannot even play its campaign song, party officials said.

In a day packed with appearances and interviews to rally support for the no vote, Cakirozer also made a low-key visit to a textile factory, where he greeted workers in the cafeteria.

I am afraid if [Erdogan] wins there will be a dictatorship, said Nurten Gunes, 24, a recent graduate in international relations, whos working on the production line pending her admission to a graduate degree program. She said her friends felt they were under pressure to vote yes in order to keep their jobs.

Other employees seemed well aware of what was at stake in the referendum and that the eyes of the world are now on Turkey.

All the world wants no to win, so the people around me say that we have to say yes, said Nebahat Toraman, 43, another worker.

The vote is indeed being watched closely from abroad. Turkey, a country of some 80 million that connects Europe with Asia and a critical U.S. ally in NATO, borders some of the worlds most unstable places, starting with Syria and Iraq.

Nearly every Western partner has expressed deep reservations about the proposed constitutional changes, but most have stayed silent so as not to provide a foil for Erdogans yes campaign. The Trump administration, which has allied with the PKKs Syrian affiliate in the battle against Islamic State extremists in Syria, has delayed its decision on a military plan to capture Raqqa, the self-declared Islamic State capital, until after the referendum.

The outcome Sunday is unclear, with some polls showing the country divided, and the main uncertainty is whether voters are telling the pollsters their true intentions Sunday or whether theyve made up their minds.

Gutman is a special correspondent.

ALSO

Link:
Some Turks fear the rise of a dictatorship as a referendum ...

A woman walks past a giant poster bearing portraits of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, ahead of the referendum on whether to change the current parliamentary system into an executive presidency. Adem Altan/AFP/Getty Images hide caption

A woman walks past a giant poster bearing portraits of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, ahead of the referendum on whether to change the current parliamentary system into an executive presidency.

Turkish voters will decide Sunday whether to replace the Turkish Republic's parliamentary form of government with a strong presidency. It's a vote that could alter or, opponents say, endanger the democratic traditions of this key U.S. ally. Turkey is a NATO member helping fight ISIS.

If the referendum passes, it will increase the power of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Polls released late in the campaign showed a narrow lead for "yes," with a large number still declaring themselves undecided. Erdogan is predicting at least a 55 percent margin for "yes."

The vote comes at a perilous time. Turkey remains under a state of emergency declared last July, following a failed coup that left nearly 300 people dead. The Erdogan government has used the emergency powers to conduct a sweeping purge of the military, judiciary and civil service. More than 100,000 people have been fired or arrested, including more than 100 journalists.

In this atmosphere, referendum opponents say it's difficult to run an effective campaign. Government officials dismiss this concern, noting that France is holding elections this spring while under a state of emergency following terrorist attacks in Paris.

The pro and con arguments

Supporters say the change will bring stability and efficiency to a government that has often been paralyzed by infighting. They note that Turkey has had 64 governments since the 1920s, rivaling Italy for instability. They say a stronger government will be better at fighting terrorism; the country has suffered several recent attacks.

Critics and analysts such as the Venice Commission, part of the Council of Europe, a 47-nation pact of European countries including Turkey, say it's "a dangerous step backwards in the constitutional democratic tradition of Turkey," warning of "the dangers of degeneration of the proposed system towards an authoritarian and personal regime."

The current system

Under the existing constitution, Turkey's chief executive is the prime minister, chosen by the parliament. Until recently, the president was an appointed position serving as head of state, not head of government similar to the queen of England.

Erdogan served as prime minister from 2002 until 2014, when he became Turkey's first president elected by the voters. He immediately announced that he would be a "different kind of president," and has taken a much more active role in running the government than his predecessors.

What would change

Power would be more concentrated under the presidency.

If the referendum is approved by majority vote, the office of prime minister would be abolished after the next elections, scheduled for 2019. Another body, the Council of Ministers, would also go, and all executive and administrative authority would be transferred to the president's office.

The current setup requires the president to be nonpartisan.

Under the new system, the president would no longer have that limit. Erdogan could formally rejoin the party he co-founded, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Erdogan resigned from the party when he became president.

The change would increase Erdogan's influence over who runs for Parliament.

Cabinet ministers would no longer have to be members of Parliament and the Parliament would not have power over Cabinet appointments ministers would be appointed directly by the president.

If the referendum is approved, the Parliament would have reduced oversight powers.

There is one change the referendum would bring that is being applauded by pro-democracy groups: the abolition of military courts.

Presidential terms

Under the current constitution, Erdogan can run for a second five-year term in 2019 and serve until 2024. Under the proposed changes, Erdogan could have his term limit effectively reset and stay in power through 2029.

Critics say there's a loophole that could give him even more years in the job than that. If Parliament calls snap elections during a second term, he has the option of running for a third.

What happens after the vote?

Assuming the referendum passes, most of the changes it contains won't take effect until the next set of elections, due in 2019. But two important provisions would kick in shortly after the vote. Erdogan would be able to reclaim his position as head of the ruling party, and he would gain new authority to appoint members to the council that oversees the naming of judges and prosecutors.

Opponents of the referendum say this could badly weaken the judiciary's independence, removing another check on presidential power.

See original here:
Will Turkey Vote To Give Erdogan Even More Power?

Istanbul (AFP) - If there was a global contest for winning elections, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would see himself as the undisputed -- and undefeated -- heavyweight champion of the world.

In one-and-a-half decades since his ruling party came to power, Erdogan has taken part in 11 elections -- five legislative polls, two referenda, three local elections and a presidential vote -- and won them all.

On Sunday, Erdogan faces his twelfth and arguably biggest ballot box challenge since his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, in a referendum on expanding his powers.

His supporters see the new system as a historic change that will create efficient government. But for detractors, it is a dangerous step towards one-man rule in the NATO member and EU candidate state.

Fighting for votes in every corner of the country, Erdogan has kept up a punishing schedule of daily rallies seeking to woo doubters with his indefatigable campaigning.

Prowling around the stage with a wireless microphone like a rock star, Erdogan bellows at the crowds: "Do you want a strong Turkey?".

Known to his inner circle as "beyefendi" (sir) and to admirers as "reis" (the chief), Erdogan is supreme on stage, holding the audience in the palm of his hand with near-matchless public speaking skills.

- 'Balancing act' -

Yet while Erdogan is seen in Western media as a near omnipotent sultan, there are constraints to his rule, according to Asli Aydintasbas, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"Erdogan has to continue to win votes in order to stay in power and campaign round the clock," she said.

In order to win the referendum Erdogan has to perform a "delicate balancing act" of winning votes from both Kurds and nationalists, she added.

Erdogan also comes to the referendum after the most turbulent year of his political life which saw a slew of terror attacks, worsening relations with Europe and above all the July 15 failed coup.

He appeared on the FaceTime app on live TV to urge supporters to flood streets and defeat the coup, saying he escaped being killed by just 15 minutes before returning in triumph to Istanbul.

The president has courted ever more controversy as authorities jailed over 47,000 under a state of emergency which has lasted nine months so far.

There has even been talk of fissures within the ruling AKP and with his two other party co-founders -- former president Abdullah Gul and ex deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc -- both deafening in their silence by failing to endorse the new system.

- 'My crazy projects' -

If the new constitution is passed, Erdogan could stay in power until 2029, by which time the energetic president, 63, would be aged 75.

Erdogan appears determined to leave a legacy at least as significant as Turkey's modern founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk whose picture hangs next to his at rallies.

He has embarked on a hugely ambitious drive to modernise Turkey's infrastructure with a new bridge and two tunnels spanning the Bosphorus, high speed trains and the construction of a third airport for Istanbul, schemes he affectionately refers to as "my crazy projects".

But critics worrying of a creeping Islamisation of Turkey's officially secular society with a surge in mosque building, use of Islamic schools and the abolition of all restrictions on the headscarf in public life.

Born in Istanbul but brought up by the Black Sea, Erdogan is intensely proud of the humble origins from which he rose to be Turkey's most powerful politician since Ataturk.

He gained prominence in the nascent Islamic political movements that were starting to challenge secular domination, becoming a popular mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

He was jailed for four months for inciting religious hatred when he recited an Islamist poem, a term which only magnified his profile.

Founding the AKP after the previous Islamic party led by his mentor Necmettin Erbakan was banned, Erdogan spearheaded its 2002 landslide election victory and became premier less than six months later.

It was in these early days that the AKP, lacking allies, forged an alliance with the movement of US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen that would end with the sides becoming sworn enemies and Gulen blamed for masterminding the coup bid.

- Return to pragmatism? -

Protests in 2013 over plans to build a shopping mall on an Istanbul park provided a rallying cause for secular Turks but Erdogan came out fighting, famously slamming the protesters as "capulcu" ("hooligans").

In 2014 Erdogan was elected president in the first ever popular vote for the post and moved into a vast new presidential palace opponents denounced as a needless extravagance.

In June 2015 elections the AKP won the most votes but lost its overall majority for the first time. But Erdogan swatted away any proposal of a coalition and called new elections in November where the majority was restored.

Whatever the April 16 referendum's outcome, all eyes on April 17 will be turned to whether Erdogan softens the campaign rhetoric and adopts a more conciliatory stance, especially on the EU membership bid and the shattered peace process with Kurdish militants.

"He has been extremely pragmatic in the past, often when you least expect it," said Aydintasbas.

Read the original:
Erdogan: Turkey's pugnacious 'chief' eyeing new poll knockout

ISTANBUL Turkish voters began heading to the polls early Sunday in a pivotal referendum that, if approved, would significantly expand the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and seal his political dominance over Turkey for a dozen more years.

Polls before the vote showed Turks evenly divided as they choose whether to approve constitutional amendments that would transform Turkeys system of government from a parliamentary to a presidential system.

The reforms would abolish the post of prime minister and give the president broad new authority over the judiciary changes that Erdogans supporters said would deliver stability and more sure-footed leadership or condemn Turkeys multiparty democracy to one-man rule, in the view of the presidents critics.

A yes vote would allow Erdogan, who came to power as prime minister in 2003, to stand for election in 2019 and serve two five-year terms, cementing, in the minds of many here, his status as the most consequential leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish republic.

The details of the amendments have confounded many voters, and the poll was instead widely seen as a verdict on the 15-year leadership of Erdogan and his Islamist Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The referendum comes at a moment of deep polarization in Turkey, in the wake of a failed coup last summer, with views of the powerful president eliciting sharply divergent views.

The referendum also comes as Turkeys Western allies, including the United States, are looking to Erdogan as an increasingly critical partner, which is leading a military coalition to defeat the Islamic State militant group in Iraq and Syria. Turkey also hosts more than 3 million refugees and has struck a deal with European nations to prevent more refugees from traveling to their shores.

There were questions about whether the referendum should have been held, with the country under a government-mandated state of emergency as a result of the coup attempt and a number of other recent shocks.

A war between the state and Kurdish militants has rekindled after the failure of a peace process. Deadly attacks have been carried out in Turkish cities by the Islamic State, unnerving the public and troubling the economy.

And, since the coup, the government has carried out a feverish purge of perceived enemies that has eviscerated state institutions, schools and universities. The purge has been accompanied by a crackdown on critical journalists, politicians and other civil society groups, which Erdogans opponents said gave the government a significant advantage as it embarked on the referendum campaign.

A leading opposition politician from the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party, or HDP, was arrested in November, denying the No campaign one of its most visible and charismatic voices. As independent media outlets were shuttered or dragged into court, the AKPs campaign for Evet, or Yes, dominated Turkeys airwaves as well as its public spaces.

At the same time, Turkeys political opposition has long been regarded as ineffectual and divided. And as a campaigner, Erdogan is widely credited with uncommon gifts. A centerpiece of his latest campaign was a pitched fight with European leaders that stirred up nationalist, anti-Western sentiment at home.

His populism is effective in large part because it is heartfelt, wrote Howard Eissenstat, a professor of history at St. Lawrence University, in a recent paper that was sharply critical of Erdogan and the proposed constitutional changes. At the same time, he is capable of shockingly cynical calculations in the name of political survival.

Erdogans genius as a politician, his flair for rhetoric, his capacity to mobilize his base, and his sense of himself as a man of history have all served to put him at the center of Turkish politics for more than a decade, he wrote.

On the eve of the vote, Erdogans supporters tried to drive home the arguments they have made throughout the campaign: that the constitutional changes were a remedy to weak coalition governments, an affliction with a long history in Turkey, and that foreign opposition to the changes, including from European leaders, were intended to hold the country back.

They do not support this because they do not want what is best for Turkey, said Muhammet Sirin, a spokesman for a local AKP party branch in Istanbul, speaking of Erdogans foreign critics. They are still acting with the mentality of the crusades. This nation has woken up, and we are going to stand on our feet now, he said.

But Duygu Becerik, a 22-year-old law student who was campaigning for the No vote in Istanbul on Saturday, belonged to a generation that barely recalled the chaos of Turkeys flimsy coalition governments. Erdogan and the AKP had dominated the countrys politics since she was a child.

One of her professors had been fired from her university as part of the post-coup purges. Her rejection of the constitutional changes is not just personally directed at Erdogan, but is based in part on the fear that Turkey was creating an exceptionally powerful executive, not just for the current president but forever.

Erdogan will eventually die. Other people will take power exactly the same power but we dont know who, she said. That is problematic.

Read more:

Todays coverage from Post correspondents around the world

Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news

Original post:
Turks to decide whether to give Erdogan vastly increased powers - Washington Post

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is notoriously thin-skinned. He responds to even the slightest criticism, with outrage and repression. While the world may view Turkeys leader as a moral midget, Erdogan sees himself as a giant on the world stage, deserving of the same respect in Berlin, Amsterdam, and Brussels that he demands in Istanbul and Ankara. He simply cannot broker European disagreement with his pronouncements and policies, believing that dissent is an insult to his self-perceived infallibility, wisdom, and position.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally for the upcoming referendum in Konya, Turkey, April 14, 2017. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

It is against this backdrop that European leaders should take the latest threat emerging from Turkey seriously. Turkish nationalist Sedat Peker, often described by the Turkish press as a mafia leader, initially threatened to use the Turkish diaspora in Europe to destabilize host countries but, more recently, has suggested that Turkey should seek to assassinate the prime ministers and presidents of European countries that defy Erdogan.

Given Pekers past convictions and established ties to the underworld, thats not necessarily an idle threat, nor can European officials take it as bluster given Turkish espionage on Turkish Kurds, journalists, and dissidents. Nor should Europe be alone in their concern. Wikileaks exposure of Erdogans son-in-laws emails show Turkish organizations and paid agents have also engaged in such actions in the United States.

There is precedent here. A victory for the yes camp in Turkeys referendum would simply culminate Erdogans slow motion revolution to reorient Turkey away from the West and to close the door on the era of Ataturk, modern Turkeys secular founder. Simply put and without hyperbole, the shift of Turkey back to the unabashed Islamist camp would mark as much of a sea change as Irans Islamic Revolution.

After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Iranian assassins traversed Europe hunting down those who opposed the new regime. Ayatollah Khomeini saw himself as Gods representative on earth and could tolerate no dissent. There is no reason why Erdogan could not engage in the same behavior. Indeed, it appears Erdogan is considering such a move. While the Erdogan regime cracked down on Peker for threatening a bloodbath against academics who signed a petition calling on security forces to stop targeting Kurds in Turkeys southeast, Erdogan has been noticeably silent in restraining Pekers threats to European leaders. Nor do states take the risk to conduct surveillance on targets if they are not at least considering further action.

Originally posted here:
Will Erdogan lash out in Europe? - American Enterprise Institute